So, coronavirus...

Where goats go to escape
User avatar
Blake
Posts: 2647
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 4:28 pm
Location: Republic of Western Cape

Enzedder wrote: Thu Jul 09, 2020 9:43 pm This is a post on FB from a republican
UPDATE: numbers updated as of July 8, still trending in the right direction. And keep in mind that these numbers include Covid, Flu and pneumonia deaths.

If you’re struggling to stay positive because of all the negative info that is always reported by the media or being shared on social media, remember that there are always positives to find if you sift through the noise. Media and social media in general thrives and survives off emotion, fear, and anxiety and it’s almost impossible to stay positive while being bombarded by all of this.

Covid is real and we need to be responsible humans getting through this. While infections have been going up for a number of weeks now and we need to keep fighting that spread, here’s some positive news that doesn’t get enough attention from the CDC website with info updated as of July 6. No number of deaths are anything to get excited about but the trends going in the right direction are certainly a positive. Since the peak of 16,374 deaths nationwide for the week ending April 18th, the number of deaths per week have been declining while the number of recoveries are clearly increasing at a positively rapid rate each week with a low of 464 deaths the week ending 6/27. Currently for the week ending 7/4 the number of deaths nationwide stands at 71. That final number will change a little throughout this next week so the link is included below for you to keep an eye on it as things progress.
When questioned about the Worldometers total for yesterday, he basically said that it's wrong and his figures are from CDC.

However, CDC figures take weeks to be generated from County medical Examiners records but you can see what they are up against - it's getting better in their minds even though infection rates are at record levels.

Trump has a lot to answer for
Utterly delusional. No reason to believe that death rates won’t lag behind infection rates after 10-14 days like we’ve seen time and time again.

Maybe they will be lower due to more effective treatments and the age and risk profile of those infected (younger/healthier) but when the ICU beds fill up the death rate will skyrocket regardless.

It’s going to be a tough week in the USA and South Africa.
User avatar
fishfoodie
Posts: 8223
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:25 pm

Hong Kong wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 3:14 pm Image
I hope she's marketing them as death shrouds; because they might work as them, because they'll be bugger all good as masks.
User avatar
Un Pilier
Posts: 700
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:22 am

fishfoodie wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 4:56 pm
Hong Kong wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 3:14 pm Image
I hope she's marketing them as death shrouds; because they might work as them, because they'll be bugger all good as masks.
Whoosh :smile:
Double
Posts: 22
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:36 am

Saint wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:42 pm
Biffer wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:41 am
-RB. wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:00 am

Says who? Gotta link to this?

From what I've read (which is only really New Scientist tbf) the science on this is still very unclear and may actually depend on the severity of the case and subsequent immune response I.e. asymptomatic cases may not have the same immune memory as cases illiciting a larger immune response.
That's my understanding as well. The early research suggests antibodies go out of the system relatively quickly but they don't understand how the combination of antibodies an T cells functions.

And wrt vaccines, they tend to produce an immune system response for a lot longer than a natural antibody reaction.
I heard this on the radio this morning. Sounds like a very small study, and there doesn't appear to be any understanding of the viral loads of these people when they were infected.

They;re already talking about booster jabs for the first round of vaccines as it stands, and for all this talk of not getting immunity, I still don;t think there's been a case of someone getting it twice that hasn't been traced back to a false positive/false negative during the testing phases
It basically means the opposite of what most media outlets are presenting it as, i.e. it's more likely to be good news. Lots of people evidently have immunity to the disease, there's been no cases of anyone being infected twice despite massive testing prevalence, so that means that immunity isn't dependent only on the specific type of antibodies which seroprevalence is testing for, but might be possible with things like T-cell response.

It could actually help explain why places like London are statistically experiencing something like herd immunity with only about 10-15% tested prevalence of antibodies.
User avatar
Raggs
Posts: 3698
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:51 pm

Double wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 7:37 pm
Saint wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:42 pm
Biffer wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:41 am

That's my understanding as well. The early research suggests antibodies go out of the system relatively quickly but they don't understand how the combination of antibodies an T cells functions.

And wrt vaccines, they tend to produce an immune system response for a lot longer than a natural antibody reaction.
I heard this on the radio this morning. Sounds like a very small study, and there doesn't appear to be any understanding of the viral loads of these people when they were infected.

They;re already talking about booster jabs for the first round of vaccines as it stands, and for all this talk of not getting immunity, I still don;t think there's been a case of someone getting it twice that hasn't been traced back to a false positive/false negative during the testing phases
It basically means the opposite of what most media outlets are presenting it as, i.e. it's more likely to be good news. Lots of people evidently have immunity to the disease, there's been no cases of anyone being infected twice despite massive testing prevalence, so that means that immunity isn't dependent only on the specific type of antibodies which seroprevalence is testing for, but might be possible with things like T-cell response.

It could actually help explain why places like London are statistically experiencing something like herd immunity with only about 10-15% tested prevalence of antibodies.
No. There are confirmed cases of people being infected twice now I believe.
Give a man a fire and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire and he'll be warm for the rest of his life.
User avatar
Saint
Posts: 2274
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:38 am

Raggs wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 9:47 pm
Double wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 7:37 pm
Saint wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 1:42 pm

I heard this on the radio this morning. Sounds like a very small study, and there doesn't appear to be any understanding of the viral loads of these people when they were infected.

They;re already talking about booster jabs for the first round of vaccines as it stands, and for all this talk of not getting immunity, I still don;t think there's been a case of someone getting it twice that hasn't been traced back to a false positive/false negative during the testing phases
It basically means the opposite of what most media outlets are presenting it as, i.e. it's more likely to be good news. Lots of people evidently have immunity to the disease, there's been no cases of anyone being infected twice despite massive testing prevalence, so that means that immunity isn't dependent only on the specific type of antibodies which seroprevalence is testing for, but might be possible with things like T-cell response.

It could actually help explain why places like London are statistically experiencing something like herd immunity with only about 10-15% tested prevalence of antibodies.
No. There are confirmed cases of people being infected twice now I believe.
Can you source that? There was an epidemiologist on Radio 5 saying that despite reports, there has been no confirmed double infections
Double
Posts: 22
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:36 am

Saint wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 9:56 pm
Raggs wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 9:47 pm
Double wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 7:37 pm

It basically means the opposite of what most media outlets are presenting it as, i.e. it's more likely to be good news. Lots of people evidently have immunity to the disease, there's been no cases of anyone being infected twice despite massive testing prevalence, so that means that immunity isn't dependent only on the specific type of antibodies which seroprevalence is testing for, but might be possible with things like T-cell response.

It could actually help explain why places like London are statistically experiencing something like herd immunity with only about 10-15% tested prevalence of antibodies.
No. There are confirmed cases of people being infected twice now I believe.
Can you source that? There was an epidemiologist on Radio 5 saying that despite reports, there has been no confirmed double infections
Yeah, I'm not sure that's right. On the BBC article on this from this morning:
Have people caught it twice?
There were early reports of people appearing to have multiple coronavirus infections in a short space of time.

But the scientific consensus is that testing was the issue, with patients being incorrectly told they were free of the virus.

Nobody has been deliberately reinfected with the virus to test immunity, but a pair of rhesus macaque monkeys have.

They were infected twice, once to build up an immune response and then a second time three weeks later. Those very limited experiments showed they did not develop symptoms again after such a quick reinfection.
User avatar
Raggs
Posts: 3698
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:51 pm

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.co ... d-immunity

The time frame also fits with the study showing antibody levels dropping off significantly.
Give a man a fire and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire and he'll be warm for the rest of his life.
User avatar
Saint
Posts: 2274
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:38 am

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 6.html?amp

A horrifying description of how easy it is to be a superspreader

Also a telling example of why, when you've driven infection levels down, r0 stops being a useful indicator
User avatar
Saint
Posts: 2274
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:38 am

Raggs wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:32 pm https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vox.co ... d-immunity

The time frame also fits with the study showing antibody levels dropping off significantly.

That's effectively just a word of mouth report. I'm sorry, but seeing as all these cases are being investigated I'm going to wait to see some proof. Given tjat we're between 4 and 6 months into this, with the only countries with serious data having implementedlockdiwns restricting spread, the chances of us seeing double infections are actually incredibly low even if it's possible.
User avatar
Plato’sCave
Posts: 183
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:30 pm

2021 is going to make 2020 look like bag-end, face masks, tracking apps and vaccines are not going to do anything, the Earth is fucked, at every level. You’ve got 2 months until other factors come into play. Then it just piles on and on.
User avatar
Clogs
Posts: 94
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:00 am

Plato’sCave wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:58 pm 2021 is going to make 2020 look like bag-end, face masks, tracking apps and vaccines are not going to do anything, the Earth is fucked, at every level. You’ve got 2 months until other factors come into play. Then it just piles on and on.
Break out the coke and hookers!
Ovals
Posts: 1491
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:52 pm

Plato’sCave wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:58 pm 2021 is going to make 2020 look like bag-end, face masks, tracking apps and vaccines are not going to do anything, the Earth is fucked, at every level. You’ve got 2 months until other factors come into play. Then it just piles on and on.
Aren't you just a bundle of optimism.
User avatar
Plato’sCave
Posts: 183
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:30 pm

Ovals wrote: Tue Jul 14, 2020 12:21 am
Plato’sCave wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:58 pm 2021 is going to make 2020 look like bag-end, face masks, tracking apps and vaccines are not going to do anything, the Earth is fucked, at every level. You’ve got 2 months until other factors come into play. Then it just piles on and on.
Aren't you just a bundle of optimism.
Usually I am. I’m a birds tweeting, sun shining darling buds of may cunt.
User avatar
Plato’sCave
Posts: 183
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 6:30 pm

Clogs wrote: Tue Jul 14, 2020 12:04 am
Plato’sCave wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:58 pm 2021 is going to make 2020 look like bag-end, face masks, tracking apps and vaccines are not going to do anything, the Earth is fucked, at every level. You’ve got 2 months until other factors come into play. Then it just piles on and on.
Break out the coke and hookers!
Each of us will do what we do.
User avatar
FujiKiwi
Posts: 3666
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:30 am

Plato’sCave wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:58 pm 2021 is going to make 2020 look like bag-end, face masks, tracking apps and vaccines are not going to do anything, the Earth is fucked, at every level. You’ve got 2 months until other factors come into play. Then it just piles on and on.
Plato’s Cave taking the glass half empty view.

Can someone tell us the best case scenario for the world over the next couple of years? Realistically. In simple terms the layman will be able to follow.
User avatar
mat the expat
Posts: 1458
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:12 pm

It's quite possible NSW will have some form of lockdown again from next week
User avatar
Clogs
Posts: 94
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 1:00 am

FujiKiwi wrote: Tue Jul 14, 2020 12:46 am
Plato’sCave wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 11:58 pm 2021 is going to make 2020 look like bag-end, face masks, tracking apps and vaccines are not going to do anything, the Earth is fucked, at every level. You’ve got 2 months until other factors come into play. Then it just piles on and on.
Plato’s Cave taking the glass half empty view.

Can someone tell us the best case scenario for the world over the next couple of years? Realistically. In simple terms the layman will be able to follow.
Based on my extensive crystal ball gazing I can confidently predict the following 2 possible scenarios:

Scenario 1:

The virus is upon us for another 12 months. Another 500 000 people die globally. Several vaccines finally make it to market. Everyone gets jabs, the virus is beaten (and as a by product so is the common cold). We are all safe and well and prosperous again. New Zealand tries to start a world war but fails because their main ally Fiji has had enough of their talent poaching. Crusaders win 6 more Super Rugby titles.

Scenario 2: The virus is upon us for another 12 months. Another 500 000 people die globally.Several vaccines finally make it to market. Everyone gets jabs, we think the virus is beaten, but the vaccine causes a mutation that makes the virus stronger. We enter the zombie apocalypse mid 2021. New Zealand doesn't bother trying to start a world war because they are fully isolated and have kept their borders closed. They are the only nation to have avoided the zombie apocalypse and are the only hope for the survival of humanity. Crusaders cannot win any more Super Rugby titles because of isolation.


I for one am hoping for scenario 2 for the obvious reasons.
User avatar
FujiKiwi
Posts: 3666
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:30 am

😂.

Very good. I was following along seriously at first.
User avatar
Ymx
Posts: 8557
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:03 pm

FujiKiwi wrote: Tue Jul 14, 2020 3:19 am 😂.

Very good. I was following along seriously at first.
Who would win crusaders v zombie world 15?
User avatar
FujiKiwi
Posts: 3666
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:30 am

Ymx wrote: Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:22 am
FujiKiwi wrote: Tue Jul 14, 2020 3:19 am 😂.

Very good. I was following along seriously at first.
Who would win crusaders v zombie world 15?
The “God-tier” Scott Robertson- coached Crusaders, of course, Ymx. Stop asking such dumb questions.
User avatar
Enzedder
Posts: 3579
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:55 pm
Location: Hamilton NZ

mat the expat wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 12:40 am Still a few acquaintances in the US claiming this is all Deep State manipulation..... :crazy:
Do you read Saffer 13's posts on FB as well? (Not quite that bad but he takes the CDC daily figures and notes a decline in deaths and reports those. However, CDC always adjust as advices come through from the Medical Examiners around the country so it can take 4/6 weeks before they get an accurate figure - but these are never reported.
I drink and I forget things.
User avatar
mat the expat
Posts: 1458
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 11:12 pm

Enzedder wrote: Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:31 am
mat the expat wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 12:40 am Still a few acquaintances in the US claiming this is all Deep State manipulation..... :crazy:
Do you read Saffer 13's posts on FB as well? (Not quite that bad but he takes the CDC daily figures and notes a decline in deaths and reports those. However, CDC always adjust as advices come through from the Medical Examiners around the country so it can take 4/6 weeks before they get an accurate figure - but these are never reported.
Not connected to him on FB
User avatar
Zig
Posts: 213
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:07 am

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... arty-texas

99% harmless

MAGA hat wearing Trumpanzee morons.

Stay the fuck away from me you disease ridden scumbags.
User avatar
Ymx
Posts: 8557
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:03 pm

FujiKiwi wrote: Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:28 am
Ymx wrote: Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:22 am
FujiKiwi wrote: Tue Jul 14, 2020 3:19 am 😂.

Very good. I was following along seriously at first.
Who would win crusaders v zombie world 15?
The “God-tier” Scott Robertson- coached Crusaders, of course, Ymx. Stop asking such dumb questions.
No no no, I forgot to mention, this is a Joseph & Brown lead zombie world xv we are talking about here.
User avatar
FujiKiwi
Posts: 3666
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:30 am

Ha. Touché.
User avatar
Jb1981
Posts: 1179
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:00 pm

Would Jamie Joseph keep his hat in the ring long enough to get the zombie gig?
User avatar
Insane_Homer
Posts: 5389
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:14 pm
Location: Leafy Surrey

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53397617

UK face masks in shops mandatory from 24 July. :thumbup:

(be careful, bimobot will try and dismiss this as an opinion piece)
“Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true.”
User avatar
Sandstorm
Posts: 10890
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:05 pm
Location: England

Insane_Homer wrote: Tue Jul 14, 2020 6:25 am https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53397617

UK face masks in shops mandatory from 24 July. :thumbup:

(be careful, bimobot will try and dismiss this as an opinion piece)
You seem healthy again. Covid or just bad shrimp?
User avatar
CM11
Posts: 973
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:24 am

Saint wrote: Mon Jul 13, 2020 10:56 pm https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 6.html?amp

A horrifying description of how easy it is to be a superspreader

Also a telling example of why, when you've driven infection levels down, r0 stops being a useful indicator
Who are you labelling a superspreader? The initial case is just an example of how it spreads. She infected one person.

It's not clear how it spread in the hospitals from the article but if anyone was a superspreader it was the people who spread it there.
User avatar
Insane_Homer
Posts: 5389
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 3:14 pm
Location: Leafy Surrey

Sandstorm wrote: Tue Jul 14, 2020 7:15 am You seem healthy again. Covid or just bad shrimp?
I've been fine since Sunday :thumbup:
Waiting for test result, picked up yesterday morning, should get a txt in the next 48 hrs.
“Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true.”
Biffer
Posts: 9142
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 6:43 pm

Georgia, Tennessee and Alabama look like they’re following the route set by Florida and Texas, Cases increasing substantially over the last few weeks.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
User avatar
tabascoboy
Posts: 6474
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:22 am
Location: 曇りの街

Insane_Homer wrote: Tue Jul 14, 2020 6:25 am https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-53397617

UK face masks in shops mandatory from 24 July. :thumbup:

(be careful, bimobot will try and dismiss this as an opinion piece)
Bonanza time for shoplifters caught on CCTV: "What did he look like?" "He was wearing a mask"

Glad I've got some re-usable ones already on the way, demand is going to hit the roof. Are people actually going to dispose of disposable ones properly? There will be millions of them thrown away every day.

Not that I oppose the ruling, just that I wonder if all ramifications have been thought through.
User avatar
SaintK
Posts: 6626
Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 7:49 am
Location: Over there somewhere

Fuck me after 10 days of governmment dithering on the subject, you still get dinosaurs like this
"Nothing would make me less likely to go shopping than the thought of having to mask up," says Conservative Sir Desmond Swayne who calls the new rule for shoppers in England a "monstrous imposition"
duke
Posts: 585
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2020 6:54 am
Location: Smallsbury

SaintK wrote: Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:59 pm Fuck me after 10 days of governmment dithering on the subject, you still get dinosaurs like this
"Nothing would make me less likely to go shopping than the thought of having to mask up," says Conservative Sir Desmond Swayne who calls the new rule for shoppers in England a "monstrous imposition"
Desmond Swayne's spent the entire time since the start of lockdown making fatuous comments like this, the guy's a relic
User avatar
Sandstorm
Posts: 10890
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 7:05 pm
Location: England

duke wrote: Tue Jul 14, 2020 2:09 pm
SaintK wrote: Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:59 pm Fuck me after 10 days of governmment dithering on the subject, you still get dinosaurs like this
"Nothing would make me less likely to go shopping than the thought of having to mask up," says Conservative Sir Desmond Swayne who calls the new rule for shoppers in England a "monstrous imposition"
Desmond Swayne's spent the entire time since the start of lockdown making fatuous comments like this, the guy's a relic
Dickhead, hope he catches it from his Garden Services staff.
Ovals
Posts: 1491
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:52 pm

1285 new cases reported in the UK - that's not good at all. :problem:
Lobby
Posts: 1805
Joined: Mon Jul 06, 2020 7:34 pm

Ovals wrote: Tue Jul 14, 2020 4:52 pm 1285 new cases reported in the UK - that's not good at all. :problem:
Most of that is updating the figures from Wales to include pillar 2 tests. The number of new cases reported is 398.
User avatar
BnM
Posts: 977
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2020 2:40 pm

A'forking'men



I can't believe how many stupid people we have in this country.
User avatar
fishfoodie
Posts: 8223
Joined: Mon Jun 29, 2020 8:25 pm

Sandstorm wrote: Tue Jul 14, 2020 3:05 pm
duke wrote: Tue Jul 14, 2020 2:09 pm
SaintK wrote: Tue Jul 14, 2020 1:59 pm Fuck me after 10 days of governmment dithering on the subject, you still get dinosaurs like this
Desmond Swayne's spent the entire time since the start of lockdown making fatuous comments like this, the guy's a relic
Dickhead, hope he catches it from his Garden Services staff.
Is that the current Tory euphemism for a Rent Boy ?
Post Reply