I don't think a single dose gets that far. It should cut down death rates by a good 60+%, and some seasonality will start to kick in, but I think a realisation that allowing any potential mass rates of infection (even if they don't result in serious illness/death) is what leads to rapid mutation and new strainsOvals wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 9:54 amPossibly earlier if the single dose, effectively, prevents very serious disease. 1-9 should all have one dose by the end of March, so have protection by end April. I'd like to see may as the 'target' for the uk getting back to a relatively normal way of life - as long as the data supports it.Saint wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 9:34 amWhich pretty much matches the online calculator.
The real questionmark is the 3 million per week limit - but you can see how by mid July, in conjunction with seasonality, Covid deaths should be effectively zero, on the assumption that the 99% of deaths in groups 1-9 stays constant.
So, coronavirus...
Yep, new cases are, probably. still the yardstick. And, the most likely 'spreaders' are likely to be the last to be vaccinated. Hopefully the combination of vaccines, seasonal effects, and some moderate restrictions, can keep new cases to a low level. We'll have to wait until we see how effective the vaccine is, at preventing serious disease/death, in practice.Saint wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 10:04 amI don't think a single dose gets that far. It should cut down death rates by a good 60+%, and some seasonality will start to kick in, but I think a realisation that allowing any potential mass rates of infection (even if they don't result in serious illness/death) is what leads to rapid mutation and new strainsOvals wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 9:54 amPossibly earlier if the single dose, effectively, prevents very serious disease. 1-9 should all have one dose by the end of March, so have protection by end April. I'd like to see may as the 'target' for the uk getting back to a relatively normal way of life - as long as the data supports it.Saint wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 9:34 am
Which pretty much matches the online calculator.
The real questionmark is the 3 million per week limit - but you can see how by mid July, in conjunction with seasonality, Covid deaths should be effectively zero, on the assumption that the 99% of deaths in groups 1-9 stays constant.
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TheNatalShark
- Posts: 1180
- Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2020 4:35 pm
Can't quite see it mentioned yet, but South Africa has today started rolling out the Jannssen/Johnson & Johnson vaccine. As it's seemingly the first country to do so (emergency approval given on Friday) hopefully it (continues?) to return positive results against the predominant local variant.
Local production hasn't come into affect yet, seems they are performing the rollout coming from doses requisitioned for global clinical trials produced in Europe. Hopefully local production comes online before any issues re exports becomes a thing.
https://qz.com/africa/1973285/south-afr ... 9-vaccine/
Local production hasn't come into affect yet, seems they are performing the rollout coming from doses requisitioned for global clinical trials produced in Europe. Hopefully local production comes online before any issues re exports becomes a thing.
https://qz.com/africa/1973285/south-afr ... 9-vaccine/
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TheNatalShark
- Posts: 1180
- Joined: Sat Aug 22, 2020 4:35 pm
Also Japan has started rollout today of the Pfizer jab. Qs I guess as to whether some countries will allow teams to go to the Olympics if insufficient domestic and Japanese vaccinations have taken place. If I recall the Aus government were the first to bar in 2020? Would be a shame if they didn't go ahead.
https://www.ft.com/content/644c9605-8ac ... wuWadBQbHM
https://www.ft.com/content/644c9605-8ac ... wuWadBQbHM
I can't understand this!
Yet a couple of miles awayThe vaccine roll out is going far faster in some parts than others. A 52 year-old friend with no underlying health problems was given a 1st jab in Battersea yesterday. By next week, his GPs’ surgery will have completed all 9 at-risk groups and don’t know what to do next.
A major vaccination centre in Hammersmith, that has already been delayed, has been pushed back further and now won't open until at least March.
The Novotel vaccination site was due to open in the week beginning February 8 but was initially delayed for two weeks due to a shortage in vaccine supply.
Sounds like London doesn't have a co-ordinated vaccine strategy. Individual trusts/surgeries just getting stocks delivered and calling their own patients only.SaintK wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:50 pm I can't understand this!Yet a couple of miles awayThe vaccine roll out is going far faster in some parts than others. A 52 year-old friend with no underlying health problems was given a 1st jab in Battersea yesterday. By next week, his GPs’ surgery will have completed all 9 at-risk groups and don’t know what to do next.A major vaccination centre in Hammersmith, that has already been delayed, has been pushed back further and now won't open until at least March.
The Novotel vaccination site was due to open in the week beginning February 8 but was initially delayed for two weeks due to a shortage in vaccine supply.
Surely its down to the PCN ?Sandstorm wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 2:30 pmSounds like London doesn't have a co-ordinated vaccine strategy. Individual trusts/surgeries just getting stocks delivered and calling their own patients only.SaintK wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 12:50 pm I can't understand this!Yet a couple of miles awayThe vaccine roll out is going far faster in some parts than others. A 52 year-old friend with no underlying health problems was given a 1st jab in Battersea yesterday. By next week, his GPs’ surgery will have completed all 9 at-risk groups and don’t know what to do next.A major vaccination centre in Hammersmith, that has already been delayed, has been pushed back further and now won't open until at least March.
The Novotel vaccination site was due to open in the week beginning February 8 but was initially delayed for two weeks due to a shortage in vaccine supply.
"vaccination centres are organised by PCNs, groups of Practices working together."
Direct quote from my local surgery.
I had my vaccination at one of the "superhubs" managed by the local Community NHS Trust. Perhaps the Hammersmith operation is based on that model and the Battersea one a PCN?
Still a bit odd!
There's crossover between the PCNs and Community Health. Our local GP is part of a group of 4 PCNs serving the town and local villages; but South Oxfordshire NHS Trust have a super vax centre in the Kassam and are running through a similar (but not quite the same) dataset, You can end up with an invite form both, but you only accept one or the other. Our neighbours have ended up split - one taking the vaccine from the PCN, the other from the trust.SaintK wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 3:35 pmI had my vaccination at one of the "superhubs" managed by the local Community NHS Trust. Perhaps the Hammersmith operation is based on that model and the Battersea one a PCN?
Still a bit odd!
Saint wrote: ↑Wed Feb 17, 2021 4:01 pmThere's crossover between the PCNs and Community Health. Our local GP is part of a group of 4 PCNs serving the town and local villages; but South Oxfordshire NHS Trust have a super vax centre in the Kassam and are running through a similar (but not quite the same) dataset, You can end up with an invite form both, but you only accept one or the other. Our neighbours have ended up split - one taking the vaccine from the PCN, the other from the trust.
Are you under 65?!
I feel grossly misled.
Enzedder will be telling us he's not qualified for a free bus pass next.
Wha daur meddle wi' me?
I was trying to say that the eager ones were done, the ones who monitor the sites 24/7 grabbing all the available appointments, and now us slower ones get a chance.
My missus had her jab today. She’s 60, but has advanced dementia so may have been bumped up the queue a bit. As her carer, I was put on a waiting list for a jab if they had any spare this evening, but I haven’t heard anything, so will just have to wait until I get called.
Tough about your wife.Lobby wrote: ↑Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:05 pm My missus had her jab today. She’s 60, but has advanced dementia so may have been bumped up the queue a bit. As her carer, I was put on a waiting list for a jab if they had any spare this evening, but I haven’t heard anything, so will just have to wait until I get called.
My daughter put herself as my carer as I currently need help getting around, and despite her only being in her 30s, she is scheduled for a jab along with me.
Sympathies mate. Hope all goes well for you both..Lobby wrote: ↑Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:05 pm My missus had her jab today. She’s 60, but has advanced dementia so may have been bumped up the queue a bit. As her carer, I was put on a waiting list for a jab if they had any spare this evening, but I haven’t heard anything, so will just have to wait until I get called.
Yeah, very sorry to hear that Lobby. Must be even harder for you with all the restrictions atm. Best of luck mate.TB63 wrote: ↑Thu Feb 18, 2021 9:57 pmSympathies mate. Hope all goes well for you both..Lobby wrote: ↑Thu Feb 18, 2021 7:05 pm My missus had her jab today. She’s 60, but has advanced dementia so may have been bumped up the queue a bit. As her carer, I was put on a waiting list for a jab if they had any spare this evening, but I haven’t heard anything, so will just have to wait until I get called.
Depressingly the COVID Zoe app reckons that daily new cases have started to rise again in the UK - c.13,500 today after bottoming out around the 9th February at c.12,500.
(The Zoe data is normally ahead of the https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases data because it's going off people reporting their symptoms each day.)
(The Zoe data is normally ahead of the https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases data because it's going off people reporting their symptoms each day.)
Wha daur meddle wi' me?
"Hey kids, Grandma had her jab yesterday. Let's all go visit her!"Mahoney wrote: ↑Fri Feb 19, 2021 3:03 pm Depressingly the COVID Zoe app reckons that daily new cases have started to rise again in the UK - c.13,500 today after bottoming out around the 9th February at c.12,500.
(The Zoe data is normally ahead of the https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases data because it's going off people reporting their symptoms each day.)
I'm not sure how much the Government use the published figure compared to using the ONS estimates. I think these show a continuing decline.Mahoney wrote: ↑Fri Feb 19, 2021 3:03 pm Depressingly the COVID Zoe app reckons that daily new cases have started to rise again in the UK - c.13,500 today after bottoming out around the 9th February at c.12,500.
(The Zoe data is normally ahead of the https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases data because it's going off people reporting their symptoms each day.)
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... bruary2021
But the levelling off in the official stats is a bit discouraging.
JCVI seems to be vindicated with its 12 week gap strategy.
AZ actually seems more effective with a 12 week gap and PZ is showing robust protection from one jab:
https://www.itv.com/news/2021-02-19/pfi ... l-suggests
Meanwhile hostile briefing against AZ by some EU leaders are leading to problems with take up.
AZ actually seems more effective with a 12 week gap and PZ is showing robust protection from one jab:
https://www.itv.com/news/2021-02-19/pfi ... l-suggests
Meanwhile hostile briefing against AZ by some EU leaders are leading to problems with take up.
12027 cases yesterday - very marginally down on the day before - but still a couple of K reduction from last week. Graph is showing a levelling off though.
I guess the nature of the lockdown will be that there is a natural lower end, due to the number of people that are still having to travel to work places etc. And most of the 'spreaders' will not have been vaxxed yet. That should start to change now as we get more 'pre-retired' people jabbed.
I guess the nature of the lockdown will be that there is a natural lower end, due to the number of people that are still having to travel to work places etc. And most of the 'spreaders' will not have been vaxxed yet. That should start to change now as we get more 'pre-retired' people jabbed.
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Hal Jordan
- Posts: 4154
- Joined: Tue Jun 30, 2020 12:48 pm
- Location: Sector 2814
I've just found out I am in Group 6 (underlying health conditions, mine being epilepsy) for the vaccine, so apparently I can jump the queue.
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Marylandolorian
- Posts: 1247
- Joined: Thu Jul 02, 2020 2:47 pm
- Location: Amerikanuak
Do you guys have a choice of the vaccine you want or it’s decided by your health/age or just by the availability at the time?
Hal Jordan wrote: ↑Fri Feb 19, 2021 6:02 pm I've just found out I am in Group 6 (underlying health conditions, mine being epilepsy) for the vaccine, so apparently I can jump the queue.
Same here. Ms GL had the shakes and chills, ok now. You’ll be pleased to hear.