So, coronavirus...

[tabascoboy]

Just in case UK posters are not aware anyone over 60 should now be able to get an appointment and you don't need to wait to be asked:

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavir ... ccination/

Over 55's soon I hope!

[tc27]

Just in case UK posters are not aware anyone over 60 should now be able to get an appointment and you don't need to wait to be asked:

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavir ... ccination/

Over 55's soon I hope!

Very soon - government sources saying they expect the rate to double in March!

[Biffer]

Just in case UK posters are not aware anyone over 60 should now be able to get an appointment and you don't need to wait to be asked:

https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavir ... ccination/

Over 55's soon I hope!

Very soon - government sources saying they expect the rate to double in March!

and to be clear, that's double the rate we were going earlier, not the reduced rate of the last week or two.

[walletoraccess]

at the grand old age of 63 I had my first AZ injection yesterday late afternoon
Other than a sore are around the injection site , no side effects
The last 24 hour numbers they use - up to what time do they include?

[Ovals]

at the grand old age of 63 I had my first AZ injection yesterday late afternoon
Other than a sore are around the injection site , no side effects
The last 24 hour numbers they use - up to what time do they include?

I had mine 20 days ago - so just coming up to the point where it becomes very effective. Mrs Ovals is a week behind.

Hope they can get the vax rate up - they'll need to start doing mass 2nd jabs soon - so we'll need to double the rate to continue the brilliant progress of getting the next groups vaxxed - and those groups are probably more likely spread the virus than the older groups.

[Saint]

Only 205K doses yesterday, but that's actually an increase on last week

[dpedin]

Brazil variant is here just in time for the first lockdown easing.



Obviously the need to allow people to fly in from Brazil in February was more important than attempting to keep the variant out.

Some people have also avoided being "tagged as flying in from Brazil" by going Rio - JFK - Heathrow. They bragged about it on Twitter.
Someone else suspected they had Covid, travelled anyway, landed in UK, had a test and then gave false address info, so UK Police can't find them.

The border control in the UK is a fucking farce!

So who is correct?
The politicians

Zahawi rejected claims the government had dithered when it came to imposing hotel quarantine for arrivals from high-risk countries. He said:
I would say to you that the border controls that we have are pretty stringent. Even countries that had hotel quarantine, like Australia, still have to deal with the variants actually challenging them in the same way they challenge us.

Or the scientists?

Dr Deepti Gurdasani, an epidemiologist at Queen Mary University of London, told BBC Breakfast this morning that the discovery of the P1 Brazil variant in England highlighted the “failures in quarantine policy”. She said:
Sage has advised that, unless we had a comprehensive, managed quarantine policy at our borders, something like this would happen. But unfortunately it’s something that we’ve been quite complacent about; now we’re just seeing the consequences of that.

Only 1% of everyone who flies into the UK are put into a Quarantine Hotel, the rest 99%, are free to travel by public transport to wherever they are going. They are all supposed to self isolate but who knows if they do, many are not checked on. Watch the Home Affairs Committee session chaired by Yvette Cooper, it is very illuminating and somewhat worrying.

[Saint]

Empirical data continues to flow in from the UK. By definition, this does almost exclusively from the highest at risk groups, so far and it's very encouraging. A single shot of either AZ or PF reduces Covid hospitalisation by 80% in over 80s

A single shot of PF reduces deaths from Covid in over 80s by 83% (not enough data yet from AZ as it started a month later)

In over 70s, a single shot reduces symptomatic Covid by over 60%

Within a percentage point or 2, both vaccines appear to perform the same - and ahead of the trial results.

[dpedin]

Empirical data continues to flow in from the UK. By definition, this does almost exclusively from the highest at risk groups, so far and it's very encouraging. A single shot of either AZ or PF reduces Covid hospitalisation by 80% in over 80s

A single shot of PF reduces deaths from Covid in over 80s by 83% (not enough data yet from AZ as it started a month later)

In over 70s, a single shot reduces symptomatic Covid by over 60%

Within a percentage point or 2, both vaccines appear to perform the same - and ahead of the trial results.

Excellent news!

[dkm57]

Got my appointment for 1st jab on Friday

[Sandstorm]

Got my appointment for 1st jab on Friday

[Denny Crane]

Ex BBC & ITV reporter Anna Brees talking to Daily Mail Journalist David Rose about breaking the media protocols of silence on Ivermectin. With Dr Tess Lawrie and Dr Pierre Kory

[Saint]

Empirical data continues to flow in from the UK. By definition, this does almost exclusively from the highest at risk groups, so far and it's very encouraging. A single shot of either AZ or PF reduces Covid hospitalisation by 80% in over 80s

A single shot of PF reduces deaths from Covid in over 80s by 83% (not enough data yet from AZ as it started a month later)

In over 70s, a single shot reduces symptomatic Covid by over 60%

Within a percentage point or 2, both vaccines appear to perform the same - and ahead of the trial results.

Excellent news!

It;s all highly suggestive that the J&J vaccine probably needs to be delivered as a double dose as well for long term efficacy. J&J are still running trials as to the efficacy on a double dose regime

[Insane_Homer]

Anyone remember how Boris saved Christmas...

[tc27]

Seems little justification for not approving AZ for over 65s now surely? The mass data from the UK now surely answering any concerns over the lack of data from the trials?

France has in fact just approved it.

[tc27]

Anyone remember how Boris saved Christmas...

Again not defending the bungling of the winter lockdown boggoloo but for context the UK variant needs to be considered - seems to be far more transmittable

[Saint]

Seems little justification for not approving AZ for over 65s now surely? The mass data from the UK now surely answering any concerns over the lack of data from the trials?

France has in fact just approved it.

No peer review yet - so form a German or French perspective it's not really changed until they analyse the data fully. They're being ultra-cautious, and have made a bit of a rod for their own back now - even if they were to approve I think it likely many people will actually refuse an AZ jab

[Saint]

Anyone remember how Boris saved Christmas...

Again not defending the bungling of the winter lockdown boggoloo but for context the UK variant needs to be considered - seems to be far more transmittable

Agreed. The appearance and spread of the Kent variant caught everyone out a bit and certainly impact that graph, although the Christmas plans were optimistic regardless

[Insane_Homer]

Anyone remember how Boris saved Christmas...

Spoiler

Show

Again not defending the bungling of the winter lockdown boggoloo but for context the UK variant needs to be considered - seems to be far more transmittable

The H69/V70 started detectable growth in Aug 2020. Strangely Demark seemed to get it under control in Nov, we didn't.

uk variant.JPG (37.27 KiB) Viewed 942 times

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 2.full.pdf

[Dogbert]

Anyone remember how Boris saved Christmas...

Again not defending the bungling of the winter lockdown boggoloo but for context the UK variant needs to be considered - seems to be far more transmittable

Scotland reaps dividend of Covid response that diverged from England’s
Imposing a winter lockdown earlier and prioritising care home vaccinations have kept death rate lower

https://www.ft.com/content/e1eddd2f-cb0 ... 83810fae8d

[Saint]

Anyone remember how Boris saved Christmas...

Spoiler

Show

Again not defending the bungling of the winter lockdown boggoloo but for context the UK variant needs to be considered - seems to be far more transmittable

The H69/V70 started detectable growth in Aug 2020. Strangely Demark seemed to get it under control in Nov, we didn't.
uk variant.JPG
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 2.full.pdf

We were in lockdown 2 when it became very apparent what this was - as while Covid numbers were dropping everywhere else, they didn't drop in Kent. I don;t think continuing lockdown 2 would have been all that viable as people would have simply ignored it. It was already falling apart as it was

[dpedin]

Anyone remember how Boris saved Christmas...

Again not defending the bungling of the winter lockdown boggoloo but for context the UK variant needs to be considered - seems to be far more transmittable

Agreed. The appearance and spread of the Kent variant caught everyone out a bit and certainly impact that graph, although the Christmas plans were optimistic regardless

They knew about the Kent variant in early/mid December and the modelling had been done to show the impact of it by then but the Blonde Bumblecunt delayed changing the Xmas message until the last minute and by that time it was too late. Folk had booked their train tickets and ordered the large turkey, and went ahead with their plans anyway. To compound matters he then decided to have a Gov sponsored super spreader event by getting kids to go back to school for a single day in early January. The more cynical of us would suggest that this was driven more by political motivation, to keep to their commitment to get kids back to school, than it was to prevent the spread of the virus. This was over a month after they knew about the Kent variant. By the end of January the death rate in England (20 per million) was double that in Wales, NI and Scotland. Despite all the new info and experience built up since March and the modelling that clearly demonstrated there would be a significant peak in January the BB still managed to feck it up and preside over a disastrous winter death toll.

[tc27]

Anyone remember how Boris saved Christmas...

Again not defending the bungling of the winter lockdown boggoloo but for context the UK variant needs to be considered - seems to be far more transmittable

Scotland reaps dividend of Covid response that diverged from England’s
Imposing a winter lockdown earlier and prioritising care home vaccinations have kept death rate lower

https://www.ft.com/content/e1eddd2f-cb0 ... 83810fae8d

Cant get through the FT paywall but have read that a few days ago.

Not sure really - difference between England and Scotland less than variation between worst and best English region with same or greater pops - to put it another way if Scotland was recorded as an English region it would be a well performing (2nd best) but not exceptional one. The second point is the new variant (which is thought to have come from a single person) really hammered England in particular. Anyway NI appears to be the best performing UK nation so thats surely the model?

My basic analysis is their is a fag paper between policy in different parts of the UK but that the timing was better for Scotland and NI (earlier in the cycle).

Secondly seems to be repeating the error Devi Shridar et al made in the summer in claiming the virus was eliminated in the summer which was based on ignoring deaths recorded every day by NRS. It clear (and has being admitted) that the SGs epidemiological modelling was significantly underestimated the prevalence of COVID-19 in Scotland over the summer.

Prof Woolhouse had some interesting thoughts on this : https://inews.co.uk/news/scotland/scotl ... ser-887986
Top

[Calculon]

Anyone remember how Boris saved Christmas...

Spoiler

Show

Again not defending the bungling of the winter lockdown boggoloo but for context the UK variant needs to be considered - seems to be far more transmittable

The H69/V70 started detectable growth in Aug 2020. Strangely Demark seemed to get it under control in Nov, we didn't.
uk variant.JPG
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 2.full.pdf

From that article it looks like the so called “UK or Kent” variant independently arose in many different countries, some countries had it before the UK. Which does lead to the question: why did it become the dominant variant in the UK but not the other countries?

[Raggs]

Again not defending the bungling of the winter lockdown boggoloo but for context the UK variant needs to be considered - seems to be far more transmittable

The H69/V70 started detectable growth in Aug 2020. Strangely Demark seemed to get it under control in Nov, we didn't.
uk variant.JPG
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 2.full.pdf

From that article it looks like the so called “UK or Kent” variant independently arose in many different countries, some countries had it before the UK. Which does lead to the question: why did it become the dominant variant in the UK but not the other countries?

It may have done. Many countries don't have anywhere near the sequencing rates of the UK.

[Calculon]

may have done what?

[Raggs]

may have done what?

May have become the dominant strain in other countries. The table in the results gives the raw numbers, but doesn't seem to say how many sequences were run. The fewer sequences you run, the less accurate the data will be on which is the dominant strain.

[Calculon]

Oh, I guess, if that is the case then clearly the reasoning behind the UK’s worse infection rate isn’t due to having a more transmissible variant.

[Raggs]

Oh, I guess, if that is the case then clearly the reasoning behind the UK’s worse infection rate isn’t due to having a more transmissible variant.

What? No. Sequencing is not testing. Testing is just a yes/no. Sequencing then determines which variant. It was in the news a while ago, that the UK sequences far far more than any other european country, and that there's a chance the the UK variant didn't start in the UK, it was simply where it was first detected (though I think now they may have found patient zero for it).

[Calculon]

From my partial reading of the article posted by ih: The "UK" variant wasn't first detected in the uk. it has arisen independently several times so there is in a way several patient zeros

[Saint]

Oh, I guess, if that is the case then clearly the reasoning behind the UK’s worse infection rate isn’t due to having a more transmissible variant.

What? No. Sequencing is not testing. Testing is just a yes/no. Sequencing then determines which variant. It was in the news a while ago, that the UK sequences far far more than any other european country, and that there's a chance the the UK variant didn't start in the UK, it was simply where it was first detected (though I think now they may have found patient zero for it).

I believe that the UK has performed almost half the total global Coronavirus sequencing performed since the start of the pandemic - I saw a figure of 44% somewhere

[Calculon]

That's great, so the fact that the "UK variant" was first detected in other countries would suggest that it was present in those countries before the UK, especially considering their limited sequencing. So, again, it would be interesting to know why it did not become the dominant variant in those countries.

[Biffer]

That's great, so the fact that the "UK variant" was first detected in other countries would suggest that it was present in those countries before the UK, especially considering their limited testing. So, again, it would be interesting to know why it did not become the dominant variant in those countries.

And also, why it's to blame for the big surge in deaths in the UK whenother countries, who also had it in their communities, didn't have that same surge.

[JM2K6]

This is a really good article on the practicalities of transmission in schools

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 ... ation.html

[FalseBayFC]

That's great, so the fact that the "UK variant" was first detected in other countries would suggest that it was present in those countries before the UK, especially considering their limited testing. So, again, it would be interesting to know why it did not become the dominant variant in those countries.

And also, why it's to blame for the big surge in deaths in the UK whenother countries, who also had it in their communities, didn't have that same surge.

You'd have to analyse age factors as well as the co-morbidity prevalence in the population. UK has high levels of lifestyle diseases like obesity and diabetes and a fairly mature population.

[dpedin]

That's great, so the fact that the "UK variant" was first detected in other countries would suggest that it was present in those countries before the UK, especially considering their limited testing. So, again, it would be interesting to know why it did not become the dominant variant in those countries.

And also, why it's to blame for the big surge in deaths in the UK whenother countries, who also had it in their communities, didn't have that same surge.

You'd have to analyse age factors as well as the co-morbidity prevalence in the population. UK has high levels of lifestyle diseases like obesity and diabetes and a fairly mature population.

This is not correct!

Analysis of nations performance in managing covid19 have shown that none of these factors influence a countries outcomes - Japan has a more aged population, NZ has a higher % of obesity, Germany has a higher level of diabetes in their pop, etc. These factors along with pop size, pop density, etc cannot be used to explain nor excuse the poor performance of the UK in terms of case numbers and deaths per million. In every case a country can be identified with the same or 'worse' issues yet have performed much better than the UK. Researchers tend to suggest it has been the individual countries' Governments PH preparedness, PH policies, speed of response and how they have implemented their PH policies on the ground that have made the difference.

[tc27]

If such research exists it must be in the early stages - I cant see how anyone's gathered, sanitised for comparison and analysed enough data yet?

[Marylandolorian]

Good to see and hoping that others do the same

REUTERS-
Merck & Co Inc will help make rival Johnson & Johnson's single-shot COVID-19 vaccine in a partnership set to be announced on Tuesday by U.S. President Joe Biden, a White House official said.

[FalseBayFC]

And also, why it's to blame for the big surge in deaths in the UK whenother countries, who also had it in their communities, didn't have that same surge.

You'd have to analyse age factors as well as the co-morbidity prevalence in the population. UK has high levels of lifestyle diseases like obesity and diabetes and a fairly mature population.

This is not correct!

Analysis of nations performance in managing covid19 have shown that none of these factors influence a countries outcomes - Japan has a more aged population, NZ has a higher % of obesity, Germany has a higher level of diabetes in their pop, etc. These factors along with pop size, pop density, etc cannot be used to explain nor excuse the poor performance of the UK in terms of case numbers and deaths per million. In every case a country can be identified with the same or 'worse' issues yet have performed much better than the UK. Researchers tend to suggest it has been the individual countries' Governments PH preparedness, PH policies, speed of response and how they have implemented their PH policies on the ground that have made the difference.

UK has almost the highest level of obesity in Europe. Here in SA, patients with covid and obesity had a very grim outlook.
Who knows what would have happened if Covid had run through the PI and Maori communities in NZ. Japan also has a life expectancy way above that of the UK so its safe to say that their oldies are in better shape.

[Saint]

If such research exists it must be in the early stages - I cant see how anyone's gathered, sanitised for comparison and analysed enough data yet?

This. There's likely all sorts of other factors and analysis to go through to understand the vulnerabilities that lead to increased susceptibility to Covid. It's extremely doubtful that we're close to even an interim publication yet