So, coronavirus...

[Calculon]

This is an old article from the dt, but I think it does quite well in explaining why countries in SE Asia were better prepared for the pandemic.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... s-britain/

It makes sense to me at least

[Ovals]

This is an old article from the dt, but I think it does quite well in explaining why countries in SE Asia were better prepared for the pandemic.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... s-britain/



It makes sense to me at least

Doesn't really explain all the non Asian countries that have had lower covid mortalities.

[Marylandolorian]

This article might square things up about why some nations have more death than others.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... al-report/

[Sandstorm]

Read a thing a while back and can't remember who wrote it so take with plenty of salt, but there was a suggestion that less dangerous coronaviruses may have spread through asia over the last few years, giving people a higher underlying level of immunity. May be total bollocks.

Those corona viruses attack the lungs, we've seen them before and we have all had decades to build up some immunity to them.

Covid19 targets the blood and is brand new. No-one has immunity to it yet. It's a proper fucker.

[Ovals]

This article might square things up about why some nations have more death than others.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... al-report/

It's behind a paywall - can you paste the key bits ?

Edit - no matter, the Guardian also have the story - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021 ... ays-report

TBH - that theory makes much more sense.

[Sandstorm]

This article might square things up about why some nations have more death than others.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... al-report/

It's behind a paywall - can you paste the key bits ?

Edit - no matter, the Guardian also have the story - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021 ... ays-report

TBH - that theory makes much more sense.

"The fat and the ancient are most at risk...."

I called it last summer.

[TheNatalShark]

Italy confirms first European export ban of vaccines produced locally, 250k AZ which were destined for Aus.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/hea ... -1.4501365

https://www.ft.com/content/bed655ac-928 ... 15284798c8

[Marylandolorian]

This article might square things up about why some nations have more death than others.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... al-report/

It's behind a paywall - can you paste the key bits ?

Edit - no matter, the Guardian also have the story - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021 ... ays-report

TBH - that theory makes much more sense.

Was going to but yours is better . Also, the CDC confirmed that blood type A put people more at risk.

[Saint]

Italy confirms first European export ban of vaccines produced locally, 250k AZ which were destined for Aus.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/hea ... -1.4501365

https://www.ft.com/content/bed655ac-928 ... 15284798c8

That's pretty much ended any long term pharma investment in Italy then

[Calculon]

This article might square things up about why some nations have more death than others.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... al-report/

It's behind a paywall - can you paste the key bits ?

Edit - no matter, the Guardian also have the story - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021 ... ays-report

TBH - that theory makes much more sense.

I don't see them as mutually exclusive.

[Calculon]

This article might square things up about why some nations have more death than others.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... al-report/

It's behind a paywall - can you paste the key bits ?

Edit - no matter, the Guardian also have the story - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021 ... ays-report

TBH - that theory makes much more sense.

"The fat and the ancient are most at risk...."

I called it last summer.

I strongly suspect what saved SA from total carnage is that we don't have too many old people. To our shame we have a higher % fatties than the UK, millions living on top of each other in shanty towns where social distancing is impossible, ridiculous rates of HIV and TB infections, a poorly funded and overstretched health service, a fatalistic population that doesn't tend to follow rules, and a government whose response to the pandemic was decidedly mixed.

[TheNatalShark]

Italy confirms first European export ban of vaccines produced locally, 250k AZ which were destined for Aus.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/hea ... -1.4501365

https://www.ft.com/content/bed655ac-928 ... 15284798c8

That's pretty much ended any long term pharma investment in Italy then

It's incredibly sad they are interfering with the free market, they should allow the exports unfettered, like the UK

It would be great if we could indulge in meaningful one-upmanship here. Few things would get the rabble rousing better than the British cavalry coming to Aussie aid after those dirty Europeans engage in such selfish action.

[Saint]

Italy confirms first European export ban of vaccines produced locally, 250k AZ which were destined for Aus.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/hea ... -1.4501365

https://www.ft.com/content/bed655ac-928 ... 15284798c8

That's pretty much ended any long term pharma investment in Italy then

It's incredibly sad they are interfering with the free market, they should allow the exports unfettered, like the UK

It would be great if we could indulge in meaningful one-upmanship here. Few things would get the rabble rousing better than the British cavalry coming to Aussie aid after those dirty Europeans engage in such selfish action.

No interested in one upmanship at all. But the long term implications of this are disturbing for everyone, and have not been thought through by the EU. Supply chains for most drugs and especially these modern vaccines are long and complex, passing through many different jurisdictions. It's virtually impossible to point at a single country/location and say that that vaccine was manufactured in country X/Y/Z. This kind of action leaves them wide open to retaliation in all sorts of places that on the surface they believe they are secure.

[Calculon]

Italy confirms first European export ban of vaccines produced locally, 250k AZ which were destined for Aus.

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/hea ... -1.4501365

https://www.ft.com/content/bed655ac-928 ... 15284798c8

That's pretty much ended any long term pharma investment in Italy then

It's incredibly sad they are interfering with the free market, they should allow the exports unfettered, like the UK

It would be great if we could indulge in meaningful one-upmanship here. Few things would get the rabble rousing better than the British cavalry coming to Aussie aid after those dirty Europeans engage in such selfish action.

or indeed like the USA....anyway, there's around 500 000 doses of the AZ lying about in SA that Australia can have

[BnM]

Italy and Germany will administer just a single coronavirus vaccine dose to people who have been infected with the virus up to six months beforehand, amid a scramble to save shots

How long till they take longer between doses for everyone else...

Sweden (see 1.32pm) and Germany (see 12.57pm) extended their recommendation for the AstraZeneca/Oxford vaccine to cover people aged over 65 after previously said lacked sufficient data, until recent studies.

Be funny if the political arse covering posturing didn't cost lives.

Let's hope the Italians actually use the Ox-AZ

[Fangle]

Out of curiosity, who was dpedin on PR? These new names confuse me.

[TheNatalShark]

No interested in one upmanship at all. But the long term implications of this are disturbing for everyone, and have not been thought through by the EU. Supply chains for most drugs and especially these modern vaccines are long and complex, passing through many different jurisdictions. It's virtually impossible to point at a single country/location and say that that vaccine was manufactured in country X/Y/Z. This kind of action leaves them wide open to retaliation in all sorts of places that on the surface they believe they are secure.

The matter in Italy is a clear example of fresh Draghi trying to stamp in some authority and drum up support, the EC appear to be distancing themselves although it's acknowledged they could have vetoed the national restrictions. I suspect his calc of long term investment affects are miniscule to immediate need of a functioning government this may enable.

Though the nationalism hasn't started here, that it is significantly more public and transparent than existing moves in the UK/US (abetted by very willing international press to stick boot in) means yes it simply has to have market ramifications - but I'm not so certain it will be exodus from the continent, as it would be folly for companies to look elsewhere and proclaim a new base is in a guaranteed bastion of free trade.

Seems over a third of EU produced vaccines have been exported, I worry that this will be treated as a water tester by the EC and further clampdowns on the Pfizer production will result.

I'd love to be a fly on the boardroom when AZ arranged this batch export, as it has undoubtedly happened after the January kerfuffle.

That said it really would be an incredible opportunity for Bojo to request diversion of even a small amount of supplies. There are some guaranteed poll percentage points in there.

[TheNatalShark]

In other news France is going to stop taking the weekends off and vaccinate during them given even the weak supply is currently outstripping ability to administer.

[Lobby]

That's pretty much ended any long term pharma investment in Italy then

It's incredibly sad they are interfering with the free market, they should allow the exports unfettered, like the UK

It would be great if we could indulge in meaningful one-upmanship here. Few things would get the rabble rousing better than the British cavalry coming to Aussie aid after those dirty Europeans engage in such selfish action.

No interested in one upmanship at all. But the long term implications of this are disturbing for everyone, and have not been thought through by the EU. Supply chains for most drugs and especially these modern vaccines are long and complex, passing through many different jurisdictions. It's virtually impossible to point at a single country/location and say that that vaccine was manufactured in country X/Y/Z. This kind of action leaves them wide open to retaliation in all sorts of places that on the surface they believe they are secure.

The crazy thing is that, as of the end of last week, Italy had only used 20% of the AZ vaccines that have been provided to it thus far, so there is absolutely no benefit in it impounding 250,000 vaccines intended for Australia when it has a few million still unused.

[Sandstorm]

EU response to these vaccines has been shameful! If it was Trump or Putin, the whole world would be going ape-shit with rage.

[Saint]

No interested in one upmanship at all. But the long term implications of this are disturbing for everyone, and have not been thought through by the EU. Supply chains for most drugs and especially these modern vaccines are long and complex, passing through many different jurisdictions. It's virtually impossible to point at a single country/location and say that that vaccine was manufactured in country X/Y/Z. This kind of action leaves them wide open to retaliation in all sorts of places that on the surface they believe they are secure.

The matter in Italy is a clear example of fresh Draghi trying to stamp in some authority and drum up support, the EC appear to be distancing themselves although it's acknowledged they could have vetoed the national restrictions. I suspect his calc of long term investment affects are miniscule to immediate need of a functioning government this may enable.

Though the nationalism hasn't started here, that it is significantly more public and transparent than existing moves in the UK/US (abetted by very willing international press to stick boot in) means yes it simply has to have market ramifications - but I'm not so certain it will be exodus from the continent, as it would be folly for companies to look elsewhere and proclaim a new base is in a guaranteed bastion of free trade.

Seems over a third of EU produced vaccines have been exported, I worry that this will be treated as a water tester by the EC and further clampdowns on the Pfizer production will result.

I'd love to be a fly on the boardroom when AZ arranged this batch export, as it has undoubtedly happened after the January kerfuffle.

That said it really would be an incredible opportunity for Bojo to request diversion of even a small amount of supplies. There are some guaranteed poll percentage points in there.

There are some really problems with exporting AZ vaccibe from the UK

1 - what is really misunderstood is that almost all UK production is actually Government leased, subleased to AZ. The contracts for almost all UK supply chain predates AZ being involved in Oxford, which has effectively inherited the everything.

2- UK production is small. It's genuinely designed to meet UK requirements and not much more (see point 1). It's currently being rebuilt to increase output, so we have an internal short term shortfall, but the ability of UK vaccine manufacturing to significantly scale AZ is stupidly limited right now. There are other significant investments in Harwell and Braintree that will come onstream later this year that oukd change that, but right now it's a challenge.

EU manufacturing output for AZ, while underperforming EU expectations, already massively exceeds UK output

[Ovals]

EU response to these vaccines has been shameful! If it was Trump or Putin, the whole world would be going ape-shit with rage.

It has been a catalogue of incompetence and belligerence.

[TheNatalShark]

There are some really problems with exporting AZ vaccibe from the UK

1 - what is really misunderstood is that almost all UK production is actually Government leased, subleased to AZ. The contracts for almost all UK supply chain predates AZ being involved in Oxford, which has effectively inherited the everything.

2- UK production is small. It's genuinely designed to meet UK requirements and not much more (see point 1). It's currently being rebuilt to increase output, so we have an internal short term shortfall, but the ability of UK vaccine manufacturing to significantly scale AZ is stupidly limited right now. There are other significant investments in Harwell and Braintree that will come onstream later this year that oukd change that, but right now it's a challenge.

EU manufacturing output for AZ, while underperforming EU expectations, already massively exceeds UK output

Argument from the other side is that pre-production state intervention has and can similarly interfere with potential for exports as post-production interference. Ie we know from the January fiasco that AZ indicated in some capacity it has/had/thought it had control of the outflow of production from UK sites, otherwise they would frankly not have been specifically referenced in sites that would not require pre-clearance from the EU to make-up continental shortfall. It would surely have been clear as day to AZ at the time that the site's wouldn't meet the complete orders for the UK in time and still include those sites in potential production plans for priority Q1/Q2 deliveries.

If it knew it had no control over the outflow, it would be absolutely bonkers to not state that in the EU contract, rather than have them listed as potential sites?

Invariably a shit situation all round. Wonder if in another world Oxford didn't care for developed world prices, and AZ had a nice profit incentive to deliver and out compete in Europe, that it remained the lead driver of many EU countries plans.

[TheNatalShark]

The crazy thing is that, as of the end of last week, Italy had only used 20% of the AZ vaccines that have been provided to it thus far, so there is absolutely no benefit in it impounding 250,000 vaccines intended for Australia when it has a few million still unused.

We can see the ineptitude in some of the domestic roll out plans here in a simple graph, after the AZ vaccine was distributed to local doctors and pharmacies in France on the 24th Feb for distribution, in the following two days they administered more jabs than the prior 3 weeks altogether.




In Italy there are regions which are maxing out their AZ utilisation (some of them reserve a second jab) and are asking for more, but because the regionalisation of the plans they can't (currently) shift supplies from those utterly failing to administer to those in need. Draghi has now ditched the previous co-ordinator now and thrown in an army type, hopefully heads are banged and supplies shifted.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ccinations

As before, come end of summer voters will likely shift (more) ire from the EC's lackadaisical involvement in supporting production to domestic politicians if they see the Nordics prancing around fully vaccinated.

[Insane_Homer]

https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entr ... ssion=true

Test and Trace, the one that can't read a flight manifest and has to resort to using twitter to find Brazilians, will cost £37 Billion!!!!!!

[Flockwitt]

https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entr ... ssion=true

Test and Trace, the one that can't read a flight manifest and has to resort to using twitter to find Brazilians, will cost £37 Billion!!!!!!

What the actual effen bleedin hell?!?!? You can put in how many full blown data centers for 1 billion pounds. Somebody doth take the piss.

[eldanielfire]

Meanwhile, in Europe over 80% of AZ vaccines doses delivered so far are sitting in Fridges unused as no-one wants them. In Germany alone there's 1.4 million unused doses.

What a complete, utter, total, fuck-up

That is a disgrace! Surely there are 1.4 million immigrants from outside the EU living in Germany who would jump at the chance to get one? Fuck the Krauts and their EU wankerdom.

After all the nonsense about suing AZ to get doses, or insisting on shipments come from the UK, it's a bit of a piss take really

And now preventing Australia getting theirs. Weren't the EU droning on about preventing Vaccine nationalism? The EU are making no friends and compounding their image of being complete nob ends who create their own problems.

[Saint]

There are some really problems with exporting AZ vaccibe from the UK

1 - what is really misunderstood is that almost all UK production is actually Government leased, subleased to AZ. The contracts for almost all UK supply chain predates AZ being involved in Oxford, which has effectively inherited the everything.

2- UK production is small. It's genuinely designed to meet UK requirements and not much more (see point 1). It's currently being rebuilt to increase output, so we have an internal short term shortfall, but the ability of UK vaccine manufacturing to significantly scale AZ is stupidly limited right now. There are other significant investments in Harwell and Braintree that will come onstream later this year that oukd change that, but right now it's a challenge.

EU manufacturing output for AZ, while underperforming EU expectations, already massively exceeds UK output

Argument from the other side is that pre-production state intervention has and can similarly interfere with potential for exports as post-production interference. Ie we know from the January fiasco that AZ indicated in some capacity it has/had/thought it had control of the outflow of production from UK sites, otherwise they would frankly not have been specifically referenced in sites that would not require pre-clearance from the EU to make-up continental shortfall. It would surely have been clear as day to AZ at the time that the site's wouldn't meet the complete orders for the UK in time and still include those sites in potential production plans for priority Q1/Q2 deliveries.

If it knew it had no control over the outflow, it would be absolutely bonkers to not state that in the EU contract, rather than have them listed as potential sites?

Invariably a shit situation all round. Wonder if in another world Oxford didn't care for developed world prices, and AZ had a nice profit incentive to deliver and out compete in Europe, that it remained the lead driver of many EU countries plans.

I get that argument, but it's missing the point. Preproduction state intervention has massively accelerated tge development and production capability for AZ not just in the UK factories but also in Europe and the rest if the world. So without that initial UK government gamble the EU production would be even further behind.

And frankly I think the idea that AZ don't have sufficient motivation to get this sorted as soon as possible is laughable - they're making profit on every dose as it is, just not making 100%+ margins

[Biffer]

https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entr ... ssion=true

Test and Trace, the one that can't read a flight manifest and has to resort to using twitter to find Brazilians, will cost £37 Billion!!!!!!

What the actual effen bleedin hell?!?!? You can put in how many full blown data centers for 1 billion pounds. Somebody doth take the piss.

You could spend £1million pounds a day, every day, for 100 years and you wouldn’t have spent that much money.

[Sandstorm]

https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entr ... ssion=true

Test and Trace, the one that can't read a flight manifest and has to resort to using twitter to find Brazilians, will cost £37 Billion!!!!!!

What the actual effen bleedin hell?!?!? You can put in how many full blown data centers for 1 billion pounds. Somebody doth take the piss.

You could spend £1million pounds a day, every day, for 100 years and you wouldn’t have spent that much money.

Meh, just don't pay the bill. What will the Tory peer do? Sue?

[Saint]

https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entr ... ssion=true

Test and Trace, the one that can't read a flight manifest and has to resort to using twitter to find Brazilians, will cost £37 Billion!!!!!!

What the actual effen bleedin hell?!?!? You can put in how many full blown data centers for 1 billion pounds. Somebody doth take the piss.

You could spend £1million pounds a day, every day, for 100 years and you wouldn’t have spent that much money.

This is the amount allocated to the programme in the budget, not what's actually been spent. As of October last year, 4 billion had been spent on the entire programme, lots of it in the actual laboratories and the testing part if the programme. The testing part works fine now, it's tge trace part that's failing.

They won't come close to spending that 15 billion either this year

[robmatic]

https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entr ... ssion=true

Test and Trace, the one that can't read a flight manifest and has to resort to using twitter to find Brazilians, will cost £37 Billion!!!!!!

I know it was a big priority but that is outlandishly wasteful. And it didn't even work.

[Tichtheid]

https://m.huffingtonpost.co.uk/amp/entr ... ssion=true

Test and Trace, the one that can't read a flight manifest and has to resort to using twitter to find Brazilians, will cost £37 Billion!!!!!!

What the actual effen bleedin hell?!?!? You can put in how many full blown data centers for 1 billion pounds. Somebody doth take the piss.

You could spend £1million pounds a day, every day, for 100 years and you wouldn’t have spent that much money.

Billions are a bit of a headfuck as a concept.

If William the Conqueror had started spending 37 million quid per year after the Battle of Hastings in 1066, we still wouldn't have spent £37Bn.

[JM2K6]

Eh, don't we usually refer to a thousand million as a billion in the UK?

[Tichtheid]

Eh, don't we usually refer to a thousand million as a billion in the UK?

yeah, spend 37 million per year for a thousand years and you will have spent 37 thousand million, or 37 billion.

[TheNatalShark]

I get that argument, but it's missing the point. Preproduction state intervention has massively accelerated tge development and production capability for AZ not just in the UK factories but also in Europe and the rest if the world. So without that initial UK government gamble the EU production would be even further behind.

And frankly I think the idea that AZ don't have sufficient motivation to get this sorted as soon as possible is laughable - they're making profit on every dose as it is, just not making 100%+ margins

Quite, and we saw that the level of arms length upfront payments to AZ to expand continent based production was clearly insufficient compared to sums invested by UK and US on both research and their domestic production, with caveats on delivery usage. But the difference in scale of that involvement doesn't warrant "Europeans are scum of the earth and the only people on the planet engaging in vaccine nationalism" view, because both engagements are approaches of vaccine control that limit free market choice. Principal is the same.

I don't think AZ have presented themselves as profit driven re the EU dispute, as compared to Pfizer/Moderna whom moved quite swiftly to arrange expanded contracts and source further production capacity to meet that sudden demand. If the scale of delay was 3 months behind UK scale up due to earlier UK commitments and so evident to the AZ CEO he was comfortable elaborating in the Republica piece that this delay was effectively inevitable, then that would have been communicated in private to the EC much earlier than the slight delay referenced in the mid-Dec communication, rather than the bombshell in late Jan. They wouldn't have stated in a contract that UK production could be used if they knew categorically it either wouldn't, or would be far too late in the day to secure additional orders through the option. At the point of the Australian export they have (for me) either given up on the EU as a long term customer (whom are clearly still eager for supplies, no matter the "Europeans don't want it" chant) and trying to make good contracts with Aus to keep another customer happy in place, or are incredibly lacking in commercial motivation to see how such an action would be perceived by the EU customer. Above actions strike me as trying to keep fire at bay Vs the entrepreneurial gung ho of other producers seeking further payment for putting it out.

[Sandstorm]

If William the Conqueror had started spending 37 million quid per year after the Battle of Hastings in 1066, we still wouldn't have spent £37Bn.

Jeez, that's a lot of Kent coke and hookers!

[Saint]

I get that argument, but it's missing the point. Preproduction state intervention has massively accelerated tge development and production capability for AZ not just in the UK factories but also in Europe and the rest if the world. So without that initial UK government gamble the EU production would be even further behind.

And frankly I think the idea that AZ don't have sufficient motivation to get this sorted as soon as possible is laughable - they're making profit on every dose as it is, just not making 100%+ margins

Quite, and we saw that the level of arms length upfront payments to AZ to expand continent based production was clearly insufficient compared to sums invested by UK and US on both research and their domestic production, with caveats on delivery usage. But the difference in scale of that involvement doesn't warrant "Europeans are scum of the earth and the only people on the planet engaging in vaccine nationalism" view, because both engagements are approaches of vaccine control that limit free market choice. Principal is the same.

I don't think AZ have presented themselves as profit driven re the EU dispute, as compared to Pfizer/Moderna whom moved quite swiftly to arrange expanded contracts and source further production capacity to meet that sudden demand. If the scale of delay was 3 months behind UK scale up due to earlier UK commitments and so evident to the AZ CEO he was comfortable elaborating in the Republica piece that this delay was effectively inevitable, then that would have been communicated in private to the EC much earlier than the slight delay referenced in the mid-Dec communication, rather than the bombshell in late Jan. They wouldn't have stated in a contract that UK production could be used if they knew categorically it either wouldn't, or would be far too late in the day to secure additional orders through the option. At the point of the Australian export they have (for me) either given up on the EU as a long term customer (whom are clearly still eager for supplies, no matter the "Europeans don't want it" chant) and trying to make good contracts with Aus to keep another customer happy in place, or are incredibly lacking in commercial motivation to see how such an action would be perceived by the EU customer. Above actions strike me as trying to keep fire at bay Vs the entrepreneurial gung ho of other producers seeking further payment for putting it out.

You simply can't compare the scale out operations of AZ vs Pfizera and Moderna as they are entirely different technologies and processes to scale out. It should probably also be recognized that AZ have a contract with Aus that is likely at the same level as the EU in terms of priority and that they are undersupplying Aus even if the export had gone through. As for motivation to get this right, the long term goodwill and PR generated by being seen to be a leader in the Covid vaccination effort drastically exceeds the potential profit any of the Pharmas will make, and they know it.

[sturginho]

If William the Conqueror had started spending 37 million quid per year after the Battle of Hastings in 1066, we still wouldn't have spent £37Bn.

Jeez, that's a lot of Kent coke and hookers!

How many mattresses could he have bought?

[TheNatalShark]

What the actual effen bleedin hell?!?!? You can put in how many full blown data centers for 1 billion pounds. Somebody doth take the piss.

You could spend £1million pounds a day, every day, for 100 years and you wouldn’t have spent that much money.

This is the amount allocated to the programme in the budget, not what's actually been spent. As of October last year, 4 billion had been spent on the entire programme, lots of it in the actual laboratories and the testing part if the programme. The testing part works fine now, it's tge trace part that's failing.

They won't come close to spending that 15 billion either this year

Looks like the new bankers bailout, guaranteed loans provision = money 100% spent and never recovered (all pocketed by bankers and shareholders themselves of course), never mind actual sums spent or what on.

The £15 billion to Serco is my favourite. 2020 results are £600mm rev up with op profit only £70m up (though admittedly 70%ish up)