Marylandolorian wrote: ↑Thu Mar 04, 2021 4:20 pm
Was going to but yours is better . Also, the CDC confirmed that blood type A put people more at risk.
The World Obesity Federation is interesting. The correlation between obesity and deaths due to covid19 is not a surprise and is indeed built into the groups at risk for vaccination in the UK. It is clear that older, more obese and diabetic folk are at greater risk. It has a face value and no doubt folk will see that as a way of explaining higher death rates in England and the UK. However it doesn't quite explain the significant differences in death rates between comparable countries. Indeed they say in the report that 'We recognise that these figures are by necessity incomplete, and that a clearer picture may emerge as the pandemic develops further. The figures are affected by the ability of a country to control its borders and by the speed with which the virus and its variants spread through populations and into more remote areas.'
If we look at the data within the report in more detail it is interesting.
For example lets look at the Nordic countries - Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden. They make a good case study, they all have broadly similar levels of obesity, defined as BMI over 30 - Denmark 19.7%, Finland 22.2%, Norway 23.1% and Sweden 20.6%. However the death rates per 100k vary significantly with Sweden the highest at 85.7 per 100k or pop compared with Denmark 22.39, Finland 10.17 and Norway 8.20. It is clear that there is something more than obesity levels that is driving death rates - might have been Sweden's policy of herd immunity?
Another example is Australia and NZ - both of whom have a higher obesity rate than the UK - Aussie is 29%, NZ is 30.8% and the UK is 27.8%. If obesity is the determining factor then we would all have the same death rates yet Aussie is 3.64 per 100k, NZ is 0.51 but the UK is 110.73. It is clear that there is something more than obesity levels that is driving death rates - might have been the Aussie and NZ pursuit of elimination of community transmission? The UK does however have a slightly older population - 18.8% over 65 compared with 16.4%.
Another example is comparing the UK and Germany - UK has an obesity level of 27.8% and Germany 22.3% so we might expect to see Germany deaths about 80% of the UKs? The UK has a death rate of 110.73 per 100k and Germany 40.75 per 100k - 37% of the UK rate. Again there must be something else driving the far higher level of deaths in the UK compared with a similar large european country - is it how Germany organised their covid19 response different to the UK? The UK however has a younger population than Germany - 18.8% over 65 compared with 21.7% in Germany.
Lastly all the four UK countries have broadly similar levels of obesity at c28% with perhaps Scotland being marginally higher than the rest? However the covid19 death rates vary considerably with NI sitting about 60% of the English death rate no matter which measure (deaths within 28 days, death cert or excess deaths) you use. Levels of obesity do not explain the difference in death rates despite having a similar high level UK wide policy approach - might it have been how the NI assembly and its local NHS/PH system delivered and communicated it's covid19 response differently?
It is clear from the World Obesity Report that if covid19 is spreading through a country then the old, the obese and those with diabetes will be far more at risk. However it may that those countries who have better success at stopping or controlling covid19 spreading through their countries will have lower death rates despite the levels of obesity they have. Conversely those who lose control of covid19 and have an older and more obese population will see higher death rates.
I thought it sent the message to the pupils and teachers that school had started.
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