So, coronavirus...

[Sandstorm]

I'm not in England, so can't anyway

Unlucky

[Raggs]

Bloody hell. I thought the view at the time was that it was significantly more infectious but not more dangerous.

Unfortunately, you can know that it's more contagious a lot sooner before you can tell it's more dangerous. Both in terms of delay between infection and death, and the far smaller number of deaths vs infections, to reach a reasonable number of incidents for comparison.

In this the UK 3rd wave or are we still in 2nd wave from November? Hard to keep up....

For me it looks like the bottom of the 2nd wave now. With the third wave to start as we open up. Hopefully it won't be a big wave though, and with all the vaccines in place, won't be too deadly.

[Saint]

Bloody hell. I thought the view at the time was that it was significantly more infectious but not more dangerous.

Unfortunately, you can know that it's more contagious a lot sooner before you can tell it's more dangerous. Both in terms of delay between infection and death, and the far smaller number of deaths vs infections, to reach a reasonable number of incidents for comparison.

In this the UK 3rd wave or are we still in 2nd wave from November? Hard to keep up....

Arguably the SE is still in the 2nd wave - they didn't really see the fall-off in November that the rest of the country experienced as that's when the new variant was starting up. For the rest of us, we're in third wave

[robmatic]

Impact of school returns being seen in case numbers in Scotland - decline slowed down and levelling off or even a small increase. Now running higher than England for first time in yonks.

Case numbers are surely becoming less relevant now as the older age groups are all pretty much jabbed at least once.

[Sandstorm]

@Saint

[Raggs]

Impact of school returns being seen in case numbers in Scotland - decline slowed down and levelling off or even a small increase. Now running higher than England for first time in yonks.

Case numbers are surely becoming less relevant now as the older age groups are all pretty much jabbed at least once.

That means less deaths, but long covid is still a real concern.

Equally, more cases still means more chances for more mutations that can make the vaccine less effective.

[Sandstorm]

Equally, more cases still means more chances for more mutations that can make the vaccine less effective.

This is the one I'm most concerned about. This virus mutates quickly and easily, usually into a more dangerous variant.

All those kids mixing again is a recipe for trouble.

[tc27]

Polish government pulling no punches over the AZ saga:

[robmatic]

Equally, more cases still means more chances for more mutations that can make the vaccine less effective.

This is the one I'm most concerned about. This virus mutates quickly and easily, usually into a more dangerous variant.

All those kids mixing again is a recipe for trouble.

There's probably 5 billion people worldwide who won't be getting vaccinated anytime soon. Ten million kids in British schools is a drop in the ocean if you want to worry about the possibility of new variants emerging.

[Dinsdale Piranha]

Impact of school returns being seen in case numbers in Scotland - decline slowed down and levelling off or even a small increase. Now running higher than England for first time in yonks.

Case numbers are surely becoming less relevant now as the older age groups are all pretty much jabbed at least once.

That means less deaths, but long covid is still a real concern.

Equally, more cases still means more chances for more mutations that can make the vaccine less effective.

There is evidence appearing that the vaccines help with long COVID - which is a bonus.

[Raggs]

Case numbers are surely becoming less relevant now as the older age groups are all pretty much jabbed at least once.

That means less deaths, but long covid is still a real concern.

Equally, more cases still means more chances for more mutations that can make the vaccine less effective.

There is evidence appearing that the vaccines help with long COVID - which is a bonus.

Yeah, but Rob was saying that case numbers are less relevant now the old people are jabbed. My point was there's still millions of unjabbed people that can help mix up a nastier variant.

[Saint]

That means less deaths, but long covid is still a real concern.

Equally, more cases still means more chances for more mutations that can make the vaccine less effective.

There is evidence appearing that the vaccines help with long COVID - which is a bonus.

Yeah, but Rob was saying that case numbers are less relevant now the old people are jabbed. My point was there's still millions of unjabbed people that can help mix up a nastier variant.

Which is why we're still largely locked down and are only slowly unlocking

[Raggs]

There is evidence appearing that the vaccines help with long COVID - which is a bonus.

Yeah, but Rob was saying that case numbers are less relevant now the old people are jabbed. My point was there's still millions of unjabbed people that can help mix up a nastier variant.

Which is why we're still largely locked down and are only slowly unlocking

Yeah I get that. My point was that we do still need to be locked down, just because the most vulnerable have been jabbed.

[Insane_Homer]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... 03SM3d9bX0

Exclusive: Boris Johnson accepts he made a mistake in delaying first lockdown

[dpedin]

Yeah, but Rob was saying that case numbers are less relevant now the old people are jabbed. My point was there's still millions of unjabbed people that can help mix up a nastier variant.

Which is why we're still largely locked down and are only slowly unlocking

Yeah I get that. My point was that we do still need to be locked down, just because the most vulnerable have been jabbed.

I think everyone is saying the much the same thing?

Whilst deaths are falling pretty dramatically I am not aware of any measures/recording of long covid being used to inform easing of lockdown. Is there any data collection and reporting? All I can see are aprox estimates from the like of the ONS studies. There are enough reports to suggest although only a small % (c10%?) is affected there is still a reasonable number who will be seriously ill and many more who will have longer term health impact as a result of blood clots, heart problems, strokes, etc.

Whilst we have given a first vaccine to c25m folk, mostly those in higher risk categories, we have only fully vaccinated about 1.6m with the required 2 doses so quite a way to go yet. We need c85% vaccination rates to get to herd immunity levels and before there can be a full easing of lockdown. We still need a vaccine approved for u16s which I believe in stage 3 testing but there are c15m of them. Hopefully this might be approved before end of the school term in which case most of the kids can be jabbed in school mass vaccination programme?

Also the vaccines are all reporting around 90% efficacy rates, but this still means c10% of those vaccinated could still contract covid19, albeit unlikely to become seriously ill. However this is c5m folk at risk and possible sources of future mutations.

We really need to drive case numbers and community transmission to as low a level as possible before we get carried away with easing lock downs too far too quickly otherwise we will see another wave. This can be done relatively quickly with rate of vaccination programme etc but the last thing we need is another 'Eat out to help out' scheme or the likes to help create another wave.

[dpedin]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... 03SM3d9bX0

Exclusive: Boris Johnson accepts he made a mistake in delaying first lockdown

... and for the 2nd wave in November and 3rd wave in January as well, including the Xmas debacle?

[tc27]

We really need to drive case numbers and community transmission to as low a level as possible before we get carried away with easing lock downs too far too quickly otherwise we will see another wave. This can be done relatively quickly with rate of vaccination programme etc but the last thing we need is another 'Eat out to help out' scheme or the likes to help create another wave.

Did eat out to help out cause a second wave? Thought it was at least contested.

Are you still an advocate of '(not actually) zero' Covid?

Interestingly it looks like Devi Shridar has being side-lined - Scotland on broadly the same unlocking trajectory as the rest of the UK. Looks like Professor Woolhouse has won the argument of the special advisors. Will prof Shridar be on the news channels denouncing the Scottish Government?

[Sandstorm]

I hope the EU keep delaying AZ rollout. Allow the UK time to vaccinate all our adults before Europeans get their head out of their arses.

[tc27]

I hope the EU keep delaying AZ rollout. Allow the UK time to vaccinate all our adults before Europeans get their head out of their arses.

Actually I hope they stop because AZ is a major part of the UK's vaccination strategy and it may affect peoples confidence (and take up) here in the UK.

[SaintK]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/20 ... 03SM3d9bX0

Exclusive: Boris Johnson accepts he made a mistake in delaying first lockdown

... and for the 2nd wave in November and 3rd wave in January as well, including the Xmas debacle?

Yep!! Unfortunately the Rayner article is behind a paywall
Some interesting stuff from Kuenssberg though
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56361599

[Rhubarb & Custard]

I hope the EU keep delaying AZ rollout. Allow the UK time to vaccinate all our adults before Europeans get their head out of their arses.

Actually I hope they stop because AZ is a major part of the UK's vaccination strategy and it may affect peoples confidence (and take up) here in the UK.

And it's not helpful to have a more widespread disease with more chance of variants across the world. Really hope they've got some data that's beyond correlation to justify all this

[Saint]

In positive news it looks like this weeks massive ramp up is happening. 387K first doses delivered yesterday, an all time high, and 53K second doses.

Mrs Saint gets her 2nd dose on Wednesday

[tc27]

Some analysis that shows vaccination programme may have already saved around 4000 lives.

[SaintK]

Pressure mounting. He'll want to hide behind the successful vaccine roll out for a while yet. So can't imagine anything starting until late summer

Senior doctors, government scientific advisers and a former head of the civil service have spoken out in favour of a public inquiry into the UK’s handling of Covid-19, raising pressure on Boris Johnson to finally launch the process as the UK’s coronavirus fatalities rose to almost 126,000.
Thousands of bereaved families, nurses and ethnic minority leaders also backed calls for an inquiry into everything from lockdown tactics to test and trace after the UK’s handling of the pandemic resulted in the worst death toll per capita of any of the world’s large economies.

[Slick]

Is there any indication when we might be able to stay with family?

[Biffer]

Is there any indication when we might be able to stay with family?

Suggestion was End of June for Scotland

[Sandstorm]

Is there any indication when we might be able to stay with family?

Suggestion was End of June for Scotland

Stay with them? 90 mins in the pub beer garden would be enough for me.

[Biffer]

Is there any indication when we might be able to stay with family?

Suggestion was End of June for Scotland

Stay with them? 90 mins in the pub beer garden would be enough for me.

End of April then

[Saint]

Is there any indication when we might be able to stay with family?

Looking at the unlock, it looks like possibly Phase III (May 17th), but that will need more detail closer to the time

[Sandstorm]

Suggestion was End of June for Scotland

Stay with them? 90 mins in the pub beer garden would be enough for me.

End of April then

Ace

[Lobby]

It seems that not every country has gone mad.

Poland will carry on using #AstraZeneca accused others of giving in to “disinformation”

PM’s chief of staff:

“Most countries that have temporarily suspended (AstraZeneca) vaccinations have given in to panic caused by media-fuelled information about alleged complications”

And

Canada National Advisory Committee on Immunization NOT suspending use of the #AstraZeneca vaccine after reports of serious blood clots following vaccination

Health Canada official said clots look to be less common, not more common, among people who have been vaccinated

[Rinkals]

I hope the EU keep delaying AZ rollout. Allow the UK time to vaccinate all our adults before Europeans get their head out of their arses.

I saw a figure (which I can't find: sorry), which suggested that, at the rate South Africans are currently getting the jab, it will be another twenty years before 60% of the population is inoculated.

So, I don't think you have to worry on that score: we should have bred enough resistant variants in that time to keep your hospitals busy in perpetuity.

[Sandstorm]

I hope the EU keep delaying AZ rollout. Allow the UK time to vaccinate all our adults before Europeans get their head out of their arses.

I saw a figure (which I can't find: sorry), which suggested that, at the rate South Africans are currently getting the jab, it will be another twenty years before 60% of the population is inoculated.

So, I don't think you have to worry on that score: we should have bred enough resistant variants in that time to keep your hospitals busy in perpetuity.

Don’t be silly. Every country starts slowly and then ramps up the rollout.

[Saint]

It seems that not every country has gone mad.

Poland will carry on using #AstraZeneca accused others of giving in to “disinformation”

PM’s chief of staff:

“Most countries that have temporarily suspended (AstraZeneca) vaccinations have given in to panic caused by media-fuelled information about alleged complications”

And

Canada National Advisory Committee on Immunization NOT suspending use of the #AstraZeneca vaccine after reports of serious blood clots following vaccination

Health Canada official said clots look to be less common, not more common, among people who have been vaccinated

Good for them. From a personally selfish perspective I intend to be in BC by mid Jan 22 so I hope they keep cracking on.

Also was reading an interesting article today about a Canadian developed vaccine candidate about to enter Phase III - using "virus-like" particles that are grown in plants. Really interesting stuff

[Sandstorm]

It seems that not every country has gone mad.

Poland will carry on using #AstraZeneca accused others of giving in to “disinformation”

PM’s chief of staff:

“Most countries that have temporarily suspended (AstraZeneca) vaccinations have given in to panic caused by media-fuelled information about alleged complications”

And

Canada National Advisory Committee on Immunization NOT suspending use of the #AstraZeneca vaccine after reports of serious blood clots following vaccination

Health Canada official said clots look to be less common, not more common, among people who have been vaccinated

Good for them. From a personally selfish perspective I intend to be in BC by mid Jan 22 so I hope they keep cracking on.

Also was reading an interesting article today about a Canadian developed vaccine candidate about to enter Phase III - using "virus-like" particles that are grown in plants. Really interesting stuff

Ooohhh, the vegan vaccine. Should prove really popular.

[Saint]

It seems that not every country has gone mad.

Poland will carry on using #AstraZeneca accused others of giving in to “disinformation”

PM’s chief of staff:

“Most countries that have temporarily suspended (AstraZeneca) vaccinations have given in to panic caused by media-fuelled information about alleged complications”

And

Canada National Advisory Committee on Immunization NOT suspending use of the #AstraZeneca vaccine after reports of serious blood clots following vaccination

Health Canada official said clots look to be less common, not more common, among people who have been vaccinated

Good for them. From a personally selfish perspective I intend to be in BC by mid Jan 22 so I hope they keep cracking on.

Also was reading an interesting article today about a Canadian developed vaccine candidate about to enter Phase III - using "virus-like" particles that are grown in plants. Really interesting stuff

Ooohhh, the vegan vaccine. Should prove really popular.

Actually hadn't thought of it like that. Was more impressed by the efficacy and potential production rates

[laurent]

Well hopefuly it's only 3 days lost with EMA telling the idiots to fuck off tomorrow.

and in better news a Variant from Brittany not detected by PCR test ...

[dpedin]

We really need to drive case numbers and community transmission to as low a level as possible before we get carried away with easing lock downs too far too quickly otherwise we will see another wave. This can be done relatively quickly with rate of vaccination programme etc but the last thing we need is another 'Eat out to help out' scheme or the likes to help create another wave.

Did eat out to help out cause a second wave? Thought it was at least contested.

Are you still an advocate of '(not actually) zero' Covid?

Interestingly it looks like Devi Shridar has being side-lined - Scotland on broadly the same unlocking trajectory as the rest of the UK. Looks like Professor Woolhouse has won the argument of the special advisors. Will prof Shridar be on the news channels denouncing the Scottish Government?

I thought the case around the Eat out to Help out was pretty well accepted now?

I still think pursuing an elimination strategy, that is getting community transmission to as low as possible, (I presume your use of the term 'zero covid' refers to an eradication strategy, which has never been achieved for any virus apart from smallpox) particularly now we have a very effective vaccine is the best option. The UK record of one of the highest death rates per million compared with similar countries would suggest our previous strategy wasn't the best one? Treating it like measles which we can vaccinate against rather than the flu, for which current vaccines are far less effective, would seem a far more sensible option. Achieving herd immunity through high levels of vaccination and then keeping community transmission as low as possible with an effective Test, Track and Trace system and better control over borders is now achievable. The emerging evidence that the vaccine also prevents transmission in the majority of cases strengthens this option.

Not sure what your fixation on Devi Shridar is all about?

[Hong Kong]

I’m getting the BioNTech vaccination: first on 31 March, 2nd on 21 April

[Marylandolorian]

I’m getting the BioNTech vaccination: first on 31 March, 2nd on 21 April

I’m getting my 2nd shot of the Pfizer the 31st also, didn’t get any bad side effects after the first one.