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Where goats go to escape
Squidster
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charltom wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 4:09 pm
charltom wrote: Fri Apr 09, 2021 1:28 pm The various bits of chat about up and coming players got me thinking about one of my favourite topics... future Scotland RWC squads.

Taking current squad members and prospects, and working out how old everyone will be in September 2023, I reckon only Willem Nel will not make it to that RWC. So, assuming the oldest someone is likely to play in a RWC is 34 (just for the sake of argument) we'll have a first four XVs in 2023 that look a bit like this (with ages; sorry about formatting. Let me know if I've missed someone - I usually do - and some of the back three are swapped around):
1 Sutherland 31 Schoeman 29 Kebble 31 Dell 31
2 Turner 30 McInally 33 Brown 34 Cherry 32
3 Z.Fagerson 27 Berghan 32 McCallum 27 Rae 28
4 Cummings 26 Toolis 31 R.Gray 34 Davidson 26
5 J.Gray 29 Gilchrist 33 Craig 26 McKenzie 35
6 Ritchie 27 Skinner 28 Thomson 32 Bayliss 25
7 Watson 31 Crosbie 26 Boyle 23 Miller 27
8 M.Fagerson 25 Haining 33 Bradbury 28 G.Graham 31
9 Price 30 G.Horne 28 Steele 30 Dobie 22
10 Russell 30 Hastings 26 Weir 32 vdWalt 29
11 vdMerwe 28 D.Taylor 34 McGuigan 34 Hoyland 29
12 Redpath 23 Johnson 30 Lang 28 Scott 33
13 Harris 32 H.Jones 29 Hutchinson 27 Bennett 30
14 Maitland 34 D.Graham 26 L.Jones 35 Blain 23
15 Hogg 31 Kinghorn 26 Forbes 24 McLean 23

GT can definitely select a pretty strong squad from that.

Then in 2027, it's remarkable how many of the big boys are still around. Sadly that may be just beyond Hoggy's career at 35 (but my well not be), but you'd have all of these two XVs at the right sort of age, even ignoring any new players coming through. Still looks pretty decent, and by then experienced, to me:
AGE AT 2027 RWC (start)
1 Schoeman 33 Thornton 30
2 Ashman 27 Turner 34
3 Z.Fagerson 31 McCallum 31
4 Cummings 30 Davidson 30
5 J.Gray 33 Craig 30
6 Skinner 32 Bayliss 29
7 Ritchie 31 Crosbie 30
8 M.Fagerson 29 Bradbury 32
9 Dobie 26 G.Horne 32
10 Russell 34 Hastings 30
11 vdMerwe 32 McLean 27
12 Redpath 27 Johnson 34
13 H.Jones 33 Hutchinson 31
14 D.Graham 30 Blain 27
15 Forbes 28 Kinghorn 30
Looks like Kevin found this food for thought (or was thinking about it at the same time) and is working his way through a much better version, starting here: https://www.scottishrugbyblog.co.uk/202 ... yUD4ncdG_c
Yep, I definitely found this to be a useful article and will look forward to the others that Kevin is doing during the week :). I find them useful due to discovering SQ players that I didn't even know about (like McBeth and Pheasants from the above article).

It will be interesting to see how the lads from the under 20s etc grow/improve and maybe force their way into selection in years to come, I see the boy Mak Wilson mentioned in the above article too.
KingBlairhorn
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I like neeps wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 7:12 pm
KingBlairhorn wrote: Mon Apr 12, 2021 11:40 am
Other prospects (that I have heard about)
Connor De Bruyn - Brought across from South Africa to much fanfare/controversy. Built like a brick shithouse, he honestly looks like he could be a hulking backrow, but is actually a centre. I've never seen him play but for the sheer novelty of having a massive centre who is actually good a rugby too, he could be one to watch.

Patrick Harrison - Young for the group but huge potential. He has already made his Edinburgh debut and looked comfortable. Very well developed physically for his age (18, I think)

Alex Samuel - I think he may have made a squad for Glasgow already, not sure, but very highly rated. Already trained with Scotland. I've never seen him but understand he is huge.
Interesting you say that as De Bruyne did play 8 in SA before converting to 13. He was actually in the same SA under 18s team as Jordan Venter now as Edinburgh.

I remember watching a bit of the under18s a few years back and Samuel was 6'8 at 16. He's a monster.
If De Bruyne is big, Venter is an absolute beast. Not SQ as far as I know, but having arrived here at 17/18, would be eligible by age 22/23. It'll be interesting to see if he pushes into the matchday squads in the coming year as he is certainly physically mature enough. As an aside, it will also be interesting to see if the addition of the SA sides into the Pro14 tournament alters the targeting of South Africans as project players. Hypothetically, if Venter broke into the Edinburgh team over the next few seasons to the extent he is ripping it up against the SA pro sides, they may look to make a move to repatriate/cap him before he becomes eligible for Scotland. It's a new shop window for South Africans. On the flip side, I expect to see a lot more South Africans playing at other teams in the league as budget caps shrink to £5m in England and the French JIFF system really kicks into gear - they have the opportunity to earn good money whilst also remaining visible to South African selectors. An easy win you would think.
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Anyone else find it slightly sad that the main point of discussion on many players is how big they are?

NOT having a dig at anyone!
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Townsend and Tandy confirmed as attack coach and defence coach for the lions.
Be interesting to see what clever set plays Townsend might bring with him.
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KingBlairhorn
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Slick wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:28 am Anyone else find it slightly sad that the main point of discussion on many players is how big they are?

NOT having a dig at anyone!
I expect that is an exceptionally Scottish discussion point right now. We have for the last decade or so struggled to unearth any large players, particularly at centre and 8, which has been a very visible weakness in our pool for quite some time. I can't imagine it's the main point of discussion for English, French, Irish or even Welsh fans (let along SA), as they have all had the huge specimens in their squads for quite some time.
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Tichtheid
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Slick wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:28 am Anyone else find it slightly sad that the main point of discussion on many players is how big they are?

NOT having a dig at anyone!

The game has changed immeasurably since turning pro. The centres now are the weights front row forwards were when I was in my 20s.

There are sometimes moments you can point to and say, "that was when things changed", for me one turning point was Jonah, he changed everything. Everyone wanted a hugely powerful and very quick big guy like him.

Before that it was the Aussies playing very flat at ten, after turning pro it was League-style defences.

I think you can still combat power with pace, pace in support of the ball carrier so you don't get blasted off your own ball, pace to get to the breakdown and compete on opposition ball.
Scotland have a relatively lightweight pack but we don't get battered in the scrum and that is due to the coaching.

Will we see 7ft, 25 stone athletic guys battering each other on the pitch? Probably, and I'm not sure how I feel about that
Slick
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KingBlairhorn wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:47 am
Slick wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:28 am Anyone else find it slightly sad that the main point of discussion on many players is how big they are?

NOT having a dig at anyone!
I expect that is an exceptionally Scottish discussion point right now. We have for the last decade or so struggled to unearth any large players, particularly at centre and 8, which has been a very visible weakness in our pool for quite some time. I can't imagine it's the main point of discussion for English, French, Irish or even Welsh fans (let along SA), as they have all had the huge specimens in their squads for quite some time.
It is a discussion in rugby generally though. Not sure how we are going to make it safer with the genral obsession with size.

On the other point, whilst I agree we have struggled at 8 I'm always amazed that our pack sizes and weights always seem to match up with just about anyone from the game stats. I think we have spent years being conditioned to think our packs are small and will get pushed around but we seem to be bigger than many now.

If someone is going to prove me wrong with "stats" I'm not interested.
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Jock42
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Slick wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:28 am Anyone else find it slightly sad that the main point of discussion on many players is how big they are?

NOT having a dig at anyone!
Yeah a little bit. Plenty of folk were writing Graham off as too wee a couple of seasons ago.
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Tichtheid wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:52 am Will we see 7ft, 25 stone athletic guys battering each other on the pitch? Probably, and I'm not sure how I feel about that
As long as they don't filter down to my leagues post retirement or as castaways!

Think I agree with Slick, when I think of a Scotland pack default assumption is that it is probably smaller than opponents even when I know otherwise after thought. There is definitely player quality, type, coaching and mentality issues that result in the occasional bullying of our pack, not sure how much we can point to size as an actual general problem. Fairly confident in saying we're all familiar of the size of the Grays Vs carrying abilities of other locks.
Big D
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Slick wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:28 am Anyone else find it slightly sad that the main point of discussion on many players is how big they are?

NOT having a dig at anyone!
I often think the size of a player is often used sloppily to denote how physical they are and can be. Generally over the last few years we have had big players but they haven't necessarily been physically imposing (Gray Snr and until recently Gray Jnr as examples). That lead at times to our forwards taking a doing when the opposition packs turn up the physicality, particularly Ireland.

Anyone who watches our games would see that this has started to change and we are no longer as easily out muscled as regularly as we once were. But to be fair it is hard for people to change their perceptions quickly because that was the case for a while. I'd probably be the same if it was a 6N Lions and we were talking about Italian players.
Big D
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I do have a slight concern for GT, if he is involved in the non selection of players for the squad or tests it could create issues for him. I know Gatland would take the blame, but Gatland rarely overrules all his other coaches from what I have read and heard in interviews. I know he is old enough to handle those situations but it still wont be easy.

With only 6 "warm up" games it will be interesting to see if combinations are selected and who that hurts in terms of 50/50 calls.
KingBlairhorn
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Slick wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:54 am
KingBlairhorn wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:47 am
Slick wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 8:28 am Anyone else find it slightly sad that the main point of discussion on many players is how big they are?

NOT having a dig at anyone!
I expect that is an exceptionally Scottish discussion point right now. We have for the last decade or so struggled to unearth any large players, particularly at centre and 8, which has been a very visible weakness in our pool for quite some time. I can't imagine it's the main point of discussion for English, French, Irish or even Welsh fans (let along SA), as they have all had the huge specimens in their squads for quite some time.
It is a discussion in rugby generally though. Not sure how we are going to make it safer with the genral obsession with size.

On the other point, whilst I agree we have struggled at 8 I'm always amazed that our pack sizes and weights always seem to match up with just about anyone from the game stats. I think we have spent years being conditioned to think our packs are small and will get pushed around but we seem to be bigger than many now.

If someone is going to prove me wrong with "stats" I'm not interested.
I wouldn't be against an overall weight limit for the 23. If you want to pick a 25 stone prop, you are going to have to 'give up' around 5 stone somewhere else. Of course that might lead to other issues like players doing boxing style water shedding prior to matches which (I assume) comes with its own health risks.
KingBlairhorn
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Big D wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:51 am I do have a slight concern for GT, if he is involved in the non selection of players for the squad or tests it could create issues for him. I know Gatland would take the blame, but Gatland rarely overrules all his other coaches from what I have read and heard in interviews. I know he is old enough to handle those situations but it still wont be easy.

With only 6 "warm up" games it will be interesting to see if combinations are selected and who that hurts in terms of 50/50 calls.
Jonny Beattie was on the Thistle Pod a few weeks ago and was talking with (justifiable) pride about receiving a letter saying he was being considered for Lions selection. He never was, but still saw it as a highlight of his career. I would like to think Toonie will make sure all the Scotland lads who should will get a similar letter and that will go a long way to helping with the issue.
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Tichtheid
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KingBlairhorn wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 10:18 am
Big D wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 9:51 am I do have a slight concern for GT, if he is involved in the non selection of players for the squad or tests it could create issues for him. I know Gatland would take the blame, but Gatland rarely overrules all his other coaches from what I have read and heard in interviews. I know he is old enough to handle those situations but it still wont be easy.

With only 6 "warm up" games it will be interesting to see if combinations are selected and who that hurts in terms of 50/50 calls.
Jonny Beattie was on the Thistle Pod a few weeks ago and was talking with (justifiable) pride about receiving a letter saying he was being considered for Lions selection. He never was, but still saw it as a highlight of his career. I would like to think Toonie will make sure all the Scotland lads who should will get a similar letter and that will go a long way to helping with the issue.
Beattie was a ridiculously talented player, I don't think we ever got to see him fulfil his potential.

Someone who knew him at school thought he never really had to try too hard, everything sports-related came very easily to him.
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Yr Alban
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So, I see Gats has said there will be more Scots picked for the Lions this time. Well, Warren, it’s not as if there could be fewer...

With two representatives on the coaching staff, you’ve got to think the likes of Duhan and Ritchie have a fighting chance. Shame that it comes down to that though.
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Yr Alban wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 6:21 pm So, I see Gats has said there will be more Scots picked for the Lions this time. Well, Warren, it’s not as if there could be fewer...

With two representatives on the coaching staff, you’ve got to think the likes of Duhan and Ritchie have a fighting chance. Shame that it comes down to that though.
Is it not just human nature?

If you know someone personally and trust them and they have a track record of doing what you ask them to at a high standard you have a preference to them than the unknown commodity?

In every walk of life you'll see decision makers include people they trust over people they don't know.
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Yr Alban
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I like neeps wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 6:58 pm
Yr Alban wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 6:21 pm So, I see Gats has said there will be more Scots picked for the Lions this time. Well, Warren, it’s not as if there could be fewer...

With two representatives on the coaching staff, you’ve got to think the likes of Duhan and Ritchie have a fighting chance. Shame that it comes down to that though.
Is it not just human nature?

If you know someone personally and trust them and they have a track record of doing what you ask them to at a high standard you have a preference to them than the unknown commodity?

In every walk of life you'll see decision makers include people they trust over people they don't know.
Stop the fair and reasonable nonsense. Who needs that? :razz:
It is in truth not for glory, nor riches, nor honours that we are fighting, but for freedom - for that alone, which no honest man gives up but with life itself.
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Yr Alban wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 6:21 pm So, I see Gats has said there will be more Scots picked for the Lions this time. Well, Warren, it’s not as if there could be fewer...

With two representatives on the coaching staff, you’ve got to think the likes of Duhan and Ritchie have a fighting chance. Shame that it comes down to that though.
Like I said on the Lions bitching & moaning thread, I'm, really looking forward to the token English winger being selected along Maro Itoje as the only two England players.
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clydecloggie wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:02 am
Yr Alban wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 6:21 pm So, I see Gats has said there will be more Scots picked for the Lions this time. Well, Warren, it’s not as if there could be fewer...

With two representatives on the coaching staff, you’ve got to think the likes of Duhan and Ritchie have a fighting chance. Shame that it comes down to that though.
Like I said on the Lions bitching & moaning thread, I'm, really looking forward to the token English winger being selected along Maro Itoje as the only two England players.
Lots of rumblings that English based players won't be released by their clubs as the Premiership season will still be going at the same time as the Lions training camp?
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I'd still be a little surprised if it's a tiny England cohort. After all, we did win the autumn nations cup late last year, as well as last year's 6N, and got to the RWC final the year before. It's a fairly reasonable thing to suggest that perhaps England just had a poor tournament and many of these players are among the best in the NH.

But hey, Gatland.
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clydecloggie
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SaintK wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:50 am
clydecloggie wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:02 am
Yr Alban wrote: Tue Apr 13, 2021 6:21 pm So, I see Gats has said there will be more Scots picked for the Lions this time. Well, Warren, it’s not as if there could be fewer...

With two representatives on the coaching staff, you’ve got to think the likes of Duhan and Ritchie have a fighting chance. Shame that it comes down to that though.
Like I said on the Lions bitching & moaning thread, I'm, really looking forward to the token English winger being selected along Maro Itoje as the only two England players.
Lots of rumblings that English based players won't be released by their clubs as the Premiership season will still be going at the same time as the Lions training camp?
Hah! The English trying to kill the Lions concept would be quite something. The two most commercial rugby enterprises on the planet eating each other.

Good luck trying to keep Hogg etc. way from the Lions.
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clydecloggie wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:56 am
SaintK wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:50 am
clydecloggie wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:02 am

Like I said on the Lions bitching & moaning thread, I'm, really looking forward to the token English winger being selected along Maro Itoje as the only two England players.
Lots of rumblings that English based players won't be released by their clubs as the Premiership season will still be going at the same time as the Lions training camp?
Hah! The English trying to kill the Lions concept would be quite something. The two most commercial rugby enterprises on the planet eating each other.

Good luck trying to keep Hogg etc. way from the Lions.
The PRL are just the clubs in England I presume? They had better be careful with their management - the likes of Hogg is very happy at Exeter, however if he is denied a Lions chance (again) due to a decision Exeter have supported I would imagine his view of the club would be significantly tainted. Enough to leave? Who knows, but maybe.
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JM2K6 wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:55 am I'd still be a little surprised if it's a tiny England cohort. After all, we did win the autumn nations cup late last year, as well as last year's 6N, and got to the RWC final the year before. It's a fairly reasonable thing to suggest that perhaps England just had a poor tournament and many of these players are among the best in the NH.

But hey, Gatland.
The problem isn't necessarily the quality of the players, I still think there will be 8 +/- one or two (seeing as it is a smaller party apparently) on tour it is whether the can be trusted to be battle ready to play in a Lions test match at altitude. In an ideal world you would probably take some of the Sarries guys (probably no Daly or Vunipola's for me) but can George get sharp playing at the level he is?

For Sinckler, Itoje, Curry, Farrell and Watson are stick ons to be in the squad. George, Underhill, Vunipolas, Youngs (due to lack of options at 9, they are all pretty meh), Ford, Slade, May etc will all be in discussion. I personally would seriously consider taking Simmonds, but I would be planning to try and move the pack about rather than try and out muscle them the way some seem to want to try.
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KingBlairhorn wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:22 am
clydecloggie wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:56 am
SaintK wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:50 am
Lots of rumblings that English based players won't be released by their clubs as the Premiership season will still be going at the same time as the Lions training camp?
Hah! The English trying to kill the Lions concept would be quite something. The two most commercial rugby enterprises on the planet eating each other.

Good luck trying to keep Hogg etc. way from the Lions.
The PRL are just the clubs in England I presume? They had better be careful with their management - the likes of Hogg is very happy at Exeter, however if he is denied a Lions chance (again) due to a decision Exeter have supported I would imagine his view of the club would be significantly tainted. Enough to leave? Who knows, but maybe.
What do you mean denied again? He has been on the last two tours? Do you mean test chance?

Hogg is getting 500k a year and Exeter are likely to be in the final on the day of the Japan game. He signed the contract, he should honour the contract. He is OOC this year IIRC but walking out of a team paying that much at the point of the season he is signed to influence wouldn't be a good look.

Exeter would be entirely correct if in the playoffs (which they will be) to tell Hogg and the Lions to wait.
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Big D wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:31 am
JM2K6 wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:55 am I'd still be a little surprised if it's a tiny England cohort. After all, we did win the autumn nations cup late last year, as well as last year's 6N, and got to the RWC final the year before. It's a fairly reasonable thing to suggest that perhaps England just had a poor tournament and many of these players are among the best in the NH.

But hey, Gatland.
The problem isn't necessarily the quality of the players, I still think there will be 8 +/- one or two (seeing as it is a smaller party apparently) on tour it is whether the can be trusted to be battle ready to play in a Lions test match at altitude. In an ideal world you would probably take some of the Sarries guys (probably no Daly or Vunipola's for me) but can George get sharp playing at the level he is?

For Sinckler, Itoje, Curry, Farrell and Watson are stick ons to be in the squad. George, Underhill, Vunipolas, Youngs (due to lack of options at 9, they are all pretty meh), Ford, Slade, May etc will all be in discussion. I personally would seriously consider taking Simmonds, but I would be planning to try and move the pack about rather than try and out muscle them the way some seem to want to try.
I think that's a fair point, but I believe Gatland doesn't give a toss about winning the tour matches aside from the Tests, so I doubt he'll see it as a problem if some players have to play a few tour matches to get up to speed. This is the guy who took a broken Dan Lydiate over superior non-Welsh options, after all.
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JM2K6 wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:42 am
Big D wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:31 am
JM2K6 wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:55 am I'd still be a little surprised if it's a tiny England cohort. After all, we did win the autumn nations cup late last year, as well as last year's 6N, and got to the RWC final the year before. It's a fairly reasonable thing to suggest that perhaps England just had a poor tournament and many of these players are among the best in the NH.

But hey, Gatland.
The problem isn't necessarily the quality of the players, I still think there will be 8 +/- one or two (seeing as it is a smaller party apparently) on tour it is whether the can be trusted to be battle ready to play in a Lions test match at altitude. In an ideal world you would probably take some of the Sarries guys (probably no Daly or Vunipola's for me) but can George get sharp playing at the level he is?

For Sinckler, Itoje, Curry, Farrell and Watson are stick ons to be in the squad. George, Underhill, Vunipolas, Youngs (due to lack of options at 9, they are all pretty meh), Ford, Slade, May etc will all be in discussion. I personally would seriously consider taking Simmonds, but I would be planning to try and move the pack about rather than try and out muscle them the way some seem to want to try.
I think that's a fair point, but I believe Gatland doesn't give a toss about winning the tour matches aside from the Tests, so I doubt he'll see it as a problem if some players have to play a few tour matches to get up to speed. This is the guy who took a broken Dan Lydiate over superior non-Welsh options, after all.
No, and to be fair I don't think we are really disagreeing, but with only 5 tour matches (assuming England based contingent miss Japan) it is a far narrower window. To be fair, I wouldn't take either Vunipola even if Sarries were in the premiership and would probably take George either way. I think Lydiate is a bit different. Gatland was always a massive fan of his and he had a very specific set of skills that complimented the tour captain in the back row.

I don't think there will be any one country dominating selection with something like 15 picks, especially if the squad is as small as 36 which has been mentioned. I would still expect the Scottish contingent to be smallest.
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Big D wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 11:17 am
JM2K6 wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:42 am
Big D wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:31 am

The problem isn't necessarily the quality of the players, I still think there will be 8 +/- one or two (seeing as it is a smaller party apparently) on tour it is whether the can be trusted to be battle ready to play in a Lions test match at altitude. In an ideal world you would probably take some of the Sarries guys (probably no Daly or Vunipola's for me) but can George get sharp playing at the level he is?

For Sinckler, Itoje, Curry, Farrell and Watson are stick ons to be in the squad. George, Underhill, Vunipolas, Youngs (due to lack of options at 9, they are all pretty meh), Ford, Slade, May etc will all be in discussion. I personally would seriously consider taking Simmonds, but I would be planning to try and move the pack about rather than try and out muscle them the way some seem to want to try.
I think that's a fair point, but I believe Gatland doesn't give a toss about winning the tour matches aside from the Tests, so I doubt he'll see it as a problem if some players have to play a few tour matches to get up to speed. This is the guy who took a broken Dan Lydiate over superior non-Welsh options, after all.
No, and to be fair I don't think we are really disagreeing, but with only 5 tour matches (assuming England based contingent miss Japan) it is a far narrower window. To be fair, I wouldn't take either Vunipola even if Sarries were in the premiership and would probably take George either way. I think Lydiate is a bit different. Gatland was always a massive fan of his and he had a very specific set of skills that complimented the tour captain in the back row.

I don't think there will be any one country dominating selection with something like 15 picks, especially if the squad is as small as 36 which has been mentioned. I would still expect the Scottish contingent to be smallest.
I think it’s a given the Scots contingent will be smallest no matter what.

I suspect we’ll get about 5 in the squad. Hogg and Watson guaranteed. Others from a pool of Fagerson, Ritchie, Jonny Gray, Russell and Van der Merwe. Maitland a possible outside bet as Gatland likes him.
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Slick
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I think it might be a bit more than that, Sutherland should be there or thereabouts. With Toony and Tandy in the meetings I would also expect Cummings, Skinner, Johnson, Harris and Jones to be discussed. Maybe even Redpath as a bolter.

Not saying they will all get in of course, but Toony is effectively No.2 and will be able to make claims for most of them according to the Gatland game plan.
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Have jumped on the Chris Harris hype train and stuck £50 on him making the initial Lions squad odds of 7-1 tempted me in 😊
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Big D wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:37 am
KingBlairhorn wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:22 am
clydecloggie wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:56 am

Hah! The English trying to kill the Lions concept would be quite something. The two most commercial rugby enterprises on the planet eating each other.

Good luck trying to keep Hogg etc. way from the Lions.
The PRL are just the clubs in England I presume? They had better be careful with their management - the likes of Hogg is very happy at Exeter, however if he is denied a Lions chance (again) due to a decision Exeter have supported I would imagine his view of the club would be significantly tainted. Enough to leave? Who knows, but maybe.
What do you mean denied again? He has been on the last two tours? Do you mean test chance?

Hogg is getting 500k a year and Exeter are likely to be in the final on the day of the Japan game. He signed the contract, he should honour the contract. He is OOC this year IIRC but walking out of a team paying that much at the point of the season he is signed to influence wouldn't be a good look.

Exeter would be entirely correct if in the playoffs (which they will be) to tell Hogg and the Lions to wait.
Yup. First tour he was too young, second tour he got the facial injury. He was proper gutted the second time, I imagine he would be apoplectic if he was denied the chance for any reason other than injury this time round.
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clydecloggie
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Big D wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:31 am
JM2K6 wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:55 am I'd still be a little surprised if it's a tiny England cohort. After all, we did win the autumn nations cup late last year, as well as last year's 6N, and got to the RWC final the year before. It's a fairly reasonable thing to suggest that perhaps England just had a poor tournament and many of these players are among the best in the NH.

But hey, Gatland.
The problem isn't necessarily the quality of the players, I still think there will be 8 +/- one or two (seeing as it is a smaller party apparently) on tour it is whether the can be trusted to be battle ready to play in a Lions test match at altitude. In an ideal world you would probably take some of the Sarries guys (probably no Daly or Vunipola's for me) but can George get sharp playing at the level he is?

For Sinckler, Itoje, Curry, Farrell and Watson are stick ons to be in the squad. George, Underhill, Vunipolas, Youngs (due to lack of options at 9, they are all pretty meh), Ford, Slade, May etc will all be in discussion. I personally would seriously consider taking Simmonds, but I would be planning to try and move the pack about rather than try and out muscle them the way some seem to want to try.
In 2017 a big part of the reason Gatland gave for only taking 2 Scots was that there were no Scotland coaches on his team so players would not be as easily discussed and 50/50 decisions would more likely go against them. By that token 50/50 England shots should be in trouble this time round.

FWIW, I think Itoje, Curry, Sinckler and Watson are on the plane no matter what, it's likely one English hooker will be included and I would currently think that will be LCD. I don't think Farrell deserves to go but he probably will. So that's 6. Then you go into discussion territory where you'd think English players will be at a disadvantage. Will any of the coaching staff seriously argue for the Vunipolas over any of 'their own' players? Ford over Sexton, Biggar or Russell? Youngs might get the sympathy vote over the circumstances of his voluntary non-selection 4 years ago, but not even most England fans believe he's one of the best home nations' 9. In the backs, I don't see clear favourites who'd easily win a discussion in which they have no representation over players from the other 3 teams. May, Daly, Slade - 50/50 or better alternatives are available elsewhere.

Wouldn't surprise me if only 7-8 English players went and Scotland had close to the same number.
Biffer
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I think Russell will travel as well - I think the game plan will involve a lot of moving the big pack of the springboks about, and with Hogg and Russell having done that fantastically well against England and France, that is something Gatland will want.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
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Big D wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:37 am
KingBlairhorn wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 10:22 am
clydecloggie wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 7:56 am

Hah! The English trying to kill the Lions concept would be quite something. The two most commercial rugby enterprises on the planet eating each other.

Good luck trying to keep Hogg etc. way from the Lions.
The PRL are just the clubs in England I presume? They had better be careful with their management - the likes of Hogg is very happy at Exeter, however if he is denied a Lions chance (again) due to a decision Exeter have supported I would imagine his view of the club would be significantly tainted. Enough to leave? Who knows, but maybe.
What do you mean denied again? He has been on the last two tours? Do you mean test chance?

Hogg is getting 500k a year and Exeter are likely to be in the final on the day of the Japan game. He signed the contract, he should honour the contract. He is OOC this year IIRC but walking out of a team paying that much at the point of the season he is signed to influence wouldn't be a good look.

Exeter would be entirely correct if in the playoffs (which they will be) to tell Hogg and the Lions to wait.
I don't think Hogg's selection would be affected by being in the Premiership Final. But Gray's might, and Sam Simmonds may well miss out on being a bolter just for that reason.
sockwithaticket
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clydecloggie wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 1:44 pm
but not even most England fans believe he's one of the best home nations' 9.
He's not even the best 9 at his club given how young van Portfliet (English despite the name) is developing.
Big D
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SomersetJock wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 12:25 pm Have jumped on the Chris Harris hype train and stuck £50 on him making the initial Lions squad odds of 7-1 tempted me in 😊
Yaaasss always room on this train!
Big D
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KingBlairhorn wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 12:51 pm
Yup. First tour he was too young, second tour he got the facial injury. He was proper gutted the second time, I imagine he would be apoplectic if he was denied the chance for any reason other than injury this time round.
If we were talking about them generally withholding his participation I agree. But if they make the final and intend for him to play then he signed the contact, enjoyed the money from the contract and should fulfill the contract.
sockwithaticket
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Yeah, they don't pay him the money he's on to not be available at the business end of the season (if fit).
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Yr Alban
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Slick wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 12:18 pm I think it might be a bit more than that, Sutherland should be there or thereabouts. With Toony and Tandy in the meetings I would also expect Cummings, Skinner, Johnson, Harris and Jones to be discussed. Maybe even Redpath as a bolter.

Not saying they will all get in of course, but Toony is effectively No.2 and will be able to make claims for most of them according to the Gatland game plan.
Sorry, meant to include Sutherland in my group of possibles and forgot.
It is in truth not for glory, nor riches, nor honours that we are fighting, but for freedom - for that alone, which no honest man gives up but with life itself.
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JM2K6
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Big D wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 5:11 pm
SomersetJock wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 12:25 pm Have jumped on the Chris Harris hype train and stuck £50 on him making the initial Lions squad odds of 7-1 tempted me in 😊
Yaaasss always room on this train!
He seems like he'd be an excellent tourist. The sort of player that fans would really take to. If there were any.
KingBlairhorn
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Big D wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 5:17 pm
KingBlairhorn wrote: Wed Apr 14, 2021 12:51 pm
Yup. First tour he was too young, second tour he got the facial injury. He was proper gutted the second time, I imagine he would be apoplectic if he was denied the chance for any reason other than injury this time round.
If we were talking about them generally withholding his participation I agree. But if they make the final and intend for him to play then he signed the contact, enjoyed the money from the contract and should fulfill the contract.
I absolutely don't disagree, but I also don't think it was explicitly clear when he signed that contract that this specific situation might arise. My point was simply that he might feel aggrieved and that if I were a PRL/Club executive it would factor into my thinking. At the end of a day, saying a contract is a contract doesn't stop a player being unhappy and I'm sure Exeter wouldn't want him to leave.
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