Re: President Trump and US politics catchall
Posted: Wed Apr 09, 2025 6:35 am
He's actually quite insane now, just part of an over 1 hour long rant
A place where escape goats go to play
https://notplanetrugby.com/
My Opo phone and MG car could do with replacing. Deals to be had, I reckon.
Ah no. That's the rub and why the US will lose this particular trade war. China has the whole world to sell to including their own 2nd biggest market in the world. The US needs to buy the things that China manufactures. Dell and HP computers, stuff that makes the internet work, on and on it goes. So China loses some sales, whoop de doo, they've diversified their markets, they have their own market. The US in the meantime is paying through the nose for necessities, stuff they have to keep buying or key brand names like Apple are tied to.
Sounds a bit like Brexit ... shit, I said I wouldn't do that again!Flockwitt wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 8:54 amAh no. That's the rub and why the US will lose this particular trade war. China has the whole world to sell to including their own 2nd biggest market in the world. The US needs to buy the things that China manufactures. Dell and HP computers, stuff that makes the internet work, on and on it goes. So China loses some sales, whoop de doo, they've diversified their markets, they have their own market. The US in the meantime is paying through the nose for necessities, stuff they have to keep buying or key brand names like Apple are tied to.
Flockwitt wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 12:26 am The US needs computers, routers, parts for their Made in America manufacturing.
China needs… nothing from the US.
The stupid is strong about this one.
How much US debt does China currently hold, I know they sold a lot a few years back. Are they back on a level with Japan or have they been buying a lot again and moved ahead of Japan?dpedin wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 9:02 am https://www.reuters.com/markets/global- ... 025-04-09/
Looks like Trump will experience the woke, lefty, avocado eating, sandal wearing, China loving, vegetarian, communist market reaction that Truss had? Also suspected coordinated mass sell of/dumping of US Treasuries, led by China, will have a pretty disastrous impact for the US as their debt becomes hugely more expensive and their deficit becomes unaffordable. This could lead to a significant financial crash of the US system pretty quickly.
Good luck to anyone trying to explain this the Tango Turd, his head could explode! Not sure his so called economic advisors Pete Navarro and 'Ron Vara' have a feckin clue about what they are doing. 3D chess is a bit more difficult than they realized?
Your questions take me beyond my knowledge base. However it was suggested that China isn't operating alone and might be coordinating a sell off, perhaps more as a warning to the US that they might want to reconsider their tariff strategy once the see the impact that these types of retaliatory actions might have? A double bluff? US debt levels have been at their highest recently for many years and interest repayments are hugely expensive, any increase in borrowing could collapse their financial system. As the cost of borrowing rises then the US Gov will need to raise its debt ceiling sooner, perhaps as soon as June as they run out of cash? It presents a real deadline for Trump and his team to meet with their tariff policy, really only a matter of weeks. Politically this will be very difficult, the least thing anyone wants, I hope, is for the US to default on loans or delay payments like social security.Rhubarb & Custard wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 9:14 amHow much US debt does China currently hold, I know they sold a lot a few years back. Are they back on a level with Japan or have they been buying a lot again and moved ahead of Japan?dpedin wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 9:02 am https://www.reuters.com/markets/global- ... 025-04-09/
Looks like Trump will experience the woke, lefty, avocado eating, sandal wearing, China loving, vegetarian, communist market reaction that Truss had? Also suspected coordinated mass sell of/dumping of US Treasuries, led by China, will have a pretty disastrous impact for the US as their debt becomes hugely more expensive and their deficit becomes unaffordable. This could lead to a significant financial crash of the US system pretty quickly.
Good luck to anyone trying to explain this the Tango Turd, his head could explode! Not sure his so called economic advisors Pete Navarro and 'Ron Vara' have a feckin clue about what they are doing. 3D chess is a bit more difficult than they realized?
Which is to say sure China holds a lot of US debt, and might trigger some response if they sell, but they're hardly the big holders of US debt, that wold be the US, and what would China plan to put their money into instead? Sure they've got their gold underpinning their currency, and perhaps even plans to usurp the dollar with a Chinese variant to Bretton-Woods, but there's only so much gold, the EU doesn't run enough debt to buy, so where else does China's surplus go?
Us said they would do that to UK & lesser extent France in the suez crisis.Kawazaki wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 9:25 am China dumping US debt would be akin to them exploding a bomb and staying in the same room as the bomb. It would actually harm the Chinese more than the Americans.
Mutual self destruction .... Trumps tariff strategy is the same mutual self destruction though! Feckin madness, still my money is on China winning. When things go tits up there will be riots in the US and not in China for obvious reasons!Yeeb wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 10:06 amUs said they would do that to UK & lesser extent France in the suez crisis.Kawazaki wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 9:25 am China dumping US debt would be akin to them exploding a bomb and staying in the same room as the bomb. It would actually harm the Chinese more than the Americans.
He always was, and lunacy = clicks and eyeballs, which is why the media don't kick back in any significant way.tabascoboy wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 6:35 am He's actually quite insane now, just part of an over 1 hour long rant
That seems both a lot % wise and not a lot by value. Would it be they own 8% of foreign held US debt rather than 8% of the total?Marylandolorian wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 10:16 am @ R&C - How much US debt does China currently hold?
It’s about 8% ($765B) right now, same as with the UK, it was 17% few years ago.
Myself I've always tended towards being finally conservative, so I think the USA needs to think about its debt, its interest payments and the debt ceiling rather more than they do even absent of Trump's latest stupidity, and frankly even absent Trump. At some point they're going to land in the shit.dpedin wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 9:31 amYour questions take me beyond my knowledge base. However it was suggested that China isn't operating alone and might be coordinating a sell off, perhaps more as a warning to the US that they might want to reconsider their tariff strategy once the see the impact that these types of retaliatory actions might have? A double bluff? US debt levels have been at their highest recently for many years and interest repayments are hugely expensive, any increase in borrowing could collapse their financial system. As the cost of borrowing rises then the US Gov will need to raise its debt ceiling sooner, perhaps as soon as June as they run out of cash? It presents a real deadline for Trump and his team to meet with their tariff policy, really only a matter of weeks. Politically this will be very difficult, the least thing anyone wants, I hope, is for the US to default on loans or delay payments like social security.Rhubarb & Custard wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 9:14 amHow much US debt does China currently hold, I know they sold a lot a few years back. Are they back on a level with Japan or have they been buying a lot again and moved ahead of Japan?dpedin wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 9:02 am https://www.reuters.com/markets/global- ... 025-04-09/
Looks like Trump will experience the woke, lefty, avocado eating, sandal wearing, China loving, vegetarian, communist market reaction that Truss had? Also suspected coordinated mass sell of/dumping of US Treasuries, led by China, will have a pretty disastrous impact for the US as their debt becomes hugely more expensive and their deficit becomes unaffordable. This could lead to a significant financial crash of the US system pretty quickly.
Good luck to anyone trying to explain this the Tango Turd, his head could explode! Not sure his so called economic advisors Pete Navarro and 'Ron Vara' have a feckin clue about what they are doing. 3D chess is a bit more difficult than they realized?
Which is to say sure China holds a lot of US debt, and might trigger some response if they sell, but they're hardly the big holders of US debt, that wold be the US, and what would China plan to put their money into instead? Sure they've got their gold underpinning their currency, and perhaps even plans to usurp the dollar with a Chinese variant to Bretton-Woods, but there's only so much gold, the EU doesn't run enough debt to buy, so where else does China's surplus go?
My money is still on Trump folding albeit claiming some form of victory within the next 4-6 weeks as the markets, as with Trump, rail against his policies. More worryingly however I expect some sort of diversionary tactic to crowd the pitch, I fear he may launch a war, probably with Iran, to try and win back the public support!!!
Feels like it's building to his classic business strategy, declaring bankruptcy and starting over again. Unfortunately, that would take a phenomenal number of Americans down with him.dpedin wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 9:31 amPolitically this will be very difficult, the least thing anyone wants, I hope, is for the US to default on loans or delay payments like social security.
There may be a simpleton somewhere who thinks he can justify writing off USA overseas owned debt because of trade imbalances. Which would be a very special type of economic idiocy.geordie_6 wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 11:44 amFeels like it's building to his classic business strategy, declaring bankruptcy and starting over again. Unfortunately, that would take a phenomenal number of Americans down with him.dpedin wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 9:31 amPolitically this will be very difficult, the least thing anyone wants, I hope, is for the US to default on loans or delay payments like social security.
The rate of expansion in Chinese debt is the concern. Granted they have grown very quickly over recent times, but their economic castle is very much built on shifting sands, and addiontally the tide is presently coming in.Biffer wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 11:48 am Economically speaking, a certain level of debt is a good thing. It's where that level sits for a particular country at a particular time that's hard,and what you're using that debt for. If you're using it to replace revenue in an economic downturn thats not ideal but it smooths out govt finance so long as you pay it off in better times. If you're permanently using it for revenue style costs, you're digging a massive hole (This is what the UK did over the last fifteen to twenty years). There's a rough opinion that being over 100% in your debt to gdp ratio is bad, and a general desire to be a bit below that.
Germany is at 63%
UK is at 98%
USA is at 122%
So Germany can easily borrow more, UK probably shouldn't and the US is a bit buggered.
Edit - China is about 83% which would be considered healthy.
Good catch.Rhubarb & Custard wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 11:34 amThat seems both a lot % wise and not a lot by value. Would it be they own 8% of foreign held US debt rather than 8% of the total?Marylandolorian wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 10:16 am @ R&C - How much US debt does China currently hold?
It’s about 8% ($765B) right now, same as with the UK, it was 17% few years ago.
Yeah I do not think that the trade war on China will have the desired effect Trump wants, since his first presidency when he started the whole trade war and bans and convinced the EU to do the same, China have been diversifying away from both the USA and the EU. Around 2017 China's exports to the USA was around 25% give of their total exports, by 2024 that has reduced to closer to 10% I believe, not to mention reduced trade to the EU, yet their total exports increased by 14%. The Belt and Road initiative that so many Western "experts" said was a failure and waste of money is actually starting to pay off in my opinion. Western experts just do not seem to have long term vision and their expertise is through the principals of American capitalism. China is most likely looking at the 10% exports to the USA and thinking they can afford to lose it if it comes to that. What is going to hurt the USA much more is the ban on refined rare earth metals they are implementing as retaliation (92% of all REM are refined in China, even if they only have 70% of the ore) and a ban on doing business with very specific US companies that makes quite a bit of money in China as well as their need for Chinese made parts.Flockwitt wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 8:54 amAh no. That's the rub and why the US will lose this particular trade war. China has the whole world to sell to including their own 2nd biggest market in the world. The US needs to buy the things that China manufactures. Dell and HP computers, stuff that makes the internet work, on and on it goes. So China loses some sales, whoop de doo, they've diversified their markets, they have their own market. The US in the meantime is paying through the nose for necessities, stuff they have to keep buying or key brand names like Apple are tied to.
A bigger problem for the USA is that there are now a concerted effort from countries to move away from using the dollar in trade. A couple of weeks ago marked the first time that countries in the ASEAN bloc did trade using local currencies and the digital Yuan worth more than 1 Trillian dollars, also last week Brazil and China came to an agreement to do trade with each other using their local currencies. The middle east and China made agreements to trade oil in local currencies. I think Trump is speeding up de-dollarization. Those American politicians were accusing the EU of being freeloaders, but the USA has been the biggest freeloaders with the dollar being used in trade, that is why Trump was so desperate to stop BRICS countries from de-dollarizing, threatening them with massive tariffs, etc.Rhubarb & Custard wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 11:39 amMyself I've always tended towards being finally conservative, so I think the USA needs to think about its debt, its interest payments and the debt ceiling rather more than they do even absent of Trump's latest stupidity, and frankly even absent Trump. At some point they're going to land in the shit.dpedin wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 9:31 amYour questions take me beyond my knowledge base. However it was suggested that China isn't operating alone and might be coordinating a sell off, perhaps more as a warning to the US that they might want to reconsider their tariff strategy once the see the impact that these types of retaliatory actions might have? A double bluff? US debt levels have been at their highest recently for many years and interest repayments are hugely expensive, any increase in borrowing could collapse their financial system. As the cost of borrowing rises then the US Gov will need to raise its debt ceiling sooner, perhaps as soon as June as they run out of cash? It presents a real deadline for Trump and his team to meet with their tariff policy, really only a matter of weeks. Politically this will be very difficult, the least thing anyone wants, I hope, is for the US to default on loans or delay payments like social security.Rhubarb & Custard wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 9:14 am
How much US debt does China currently hold, I know they sold a lot a few years back. Are they back on a level with Japan or have they been buying a lot again and moved ahead of Japan?
Which is to say sure China holds a lot of US debt, and might trigger some response if they sell, but they're hardly the big holders of US debt, that wold be the US, and what would China plan to put their money into instead? Sure they've got their gold underpinning their currency, and perhaps even plans to usurp the dollar with a Chinese variant to Bretton-Woods, but there's only so much gold, the EU doesn't run enough debt to buy, so where else does China's surplus go?
My money is still on Trump folding albeit claiming some form of victory within the next 4-6 weeks as the markets, as with Trump, rail against his policies. More worryingly however I expect some sort of diversionary tactic to crowd the pitch, I fear he may launch a war, probably with Iran, to try and win back the public support!!!
But that's not the way of the world. We're following in the footsteps of the USA, and even Germany is now declaring debt is good but more debt is better. And perhaps the only people then in position to help would be China, a country propped up by stupefying levels of debt. Good times
If the USA saw a big shift away from using USD their dollar might still account for 75% of global trading, as opposed to maybe the 90% it currently has (it might be higher). As is often the issue the idea one might not want the dollar is fine, but then what else? Likely some fragmentation using local currencies will be a thing, so reduced use of the USD but not a big shift to another major currencybok_viking wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 1:01 pm
A bigger problem for the USA is that there are now a concerted effort from countries to move away from using the dollar in trade. A couple of weeks ago marked the first time that countries in the ASEAN bloc did trade using local currencies and the digital Yuan worth more than 1 Trillian dollars, also last week Brazil and China came to an agreement to do trade with each other using their local currencies. The middle east and China made agreements to trade oil in local currencies. I think Trump is speeding up de-dollarization. Those American politicians were accusing the EU of being freeloaders, but the USA has been the biggest freeloaders with the dollar being used in trade, that is why Trump was so desperate to stop BRICS countries from de-dollarizing, threatening them with massive tariffs, etc.
Depends what your rate is and how expense your debt is, junk country with 60% woukd struggle more than a g7 at 100%Biffer wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 11:48 am Economically speaking, a certain level of debt is a good thing. It's where that level sits for a particular country at a particular time that's hard,and what you're using that debt for. If you're using it to replace revenue in an economic downturn thats not ideal but it smooths out govt finance so long as you pay it off in better times. If you're permanently using it for revenue style costs, you're digging a massive hole (This is what the UK did over the last fifteen to twenty years). There's a rough opinion that being over 100% in your debt to gdp ratio is bad, and a general desire to be a bit below that.
Germany is at 63%
UK is at 98%
USA is at 122%
So Germany can easily borrow more, UK probably shouldn't and the US is a bit buggered.
Edit - China is about 83% which would be considered healthy.
It does and the septics could probably do without an extra pair of sweatshop-made shoes. This is the position the US found itself in during the great depression when they were the factory to the world.
Currently it is around the 73% mark I think, but is gradually reducing. Also dollar reserves held internationally has dropped down to about 57% from 90%+ in 2000. There is a reason why the USA is threatening countries that are talking about de-dollarizing, for every country that stops using the dollar, the USA have to take back those dollars that were held by said country, they will not disappear in thin air, the US economy cannot absorb endless amounts of dollars returning. I just think countries now are much more willing to move away from the dollar than ever before as the USA cannot be trusted. There is already a new payment system that bypasses SWIFT that are being implemented by some BRICS countries as a trial run before being adopted by others. It will not happen overnight, but de-dollarisation is definitely happening and Trump is speeding it up by showing the USa's true colors in vivid detail where it was always very covert.Rhubarb & Custard wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 1:18 pmIf the USA saw a big shift away from using USD their dollar might still account for 75% of global trading, as opposed to maybe the 90% it currently has (it might be higher). As is often the issue the idea one might not want the dollar is fine, but then what else? Likely some fragmentation using local currencies will be a thing, so reduced use of the USD but not a big shift to another major currencybok_viking wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 1:01 pm
A bigger problem for the USA is that there are now a concerted effort from countries to move away from using the dollar in trade. A couple of weeks ago marked the first time that countries in the ASEAN bloc did trade using local currencies and the digital Yuan worth more than 1 Trillian dollars, also last week Brazil and China came to an agreement to do trade with each other using their local currencies. The middle east and China made agreements to trade oil in local currencies. I think Trump is speeding up de-dollarization. Those American politicians were accusing the EU of being freeloaders, but the USA has been the biggest freeloaders with the dollar being used in trade, that is why Trump was so desperate to stop BRICS countries from de-dollarizing, threatening them with massive tariffs, etc.
I'm not sure anyway it'd be a problem for the US, it would have some costs, but some benefits too, so... It is an issue that Trump has declared anyone not trading in USD will face 100% tarrifs, and one might note China and Russia now trade oil in roubles and yuan and China does indeed have tariffs over 100%. Russia does not have tariffs, for... reasons
How dangerous/useful crypto might be in all this I don't know.
Will be interesting to see how companies adopting payment platforms away from Swift and carry a lot of non-USD debt actually get through all the financial tests that western corporations apply. They could very easily become uncontractable by many corps and have to rely on smaller entities who pay less. I know the processes that oil majors apply would be a massive hurdle if you cannot evidence your financial health fully.Rhubarb & Custard wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 4:09 pm I get not wanting to use Swift, for the cost if nothing else, I don't get people wanting to put themselves at risk of being controlled by China and Russia. So if you want to avoid Swift use a Swift adjacent service perhaps that looks like Swift, smells like Swift, but just happens to be cheaper.
That said for now Swift is going to remain the gold standard for an awful lot of businesses, and for good reason. India might have something to say about this, much of their IT servicing builds off Swift, but they might decide at some point as well as selling the IT software they'd like some of the business.
Depends if he still thinks it’s China plc itself that pays these tariffs , hard to think of a better example of someone in power not apparently understanding who pays what. He can get away with it to a large extent because the US is in theory self sufficent in most things , seafood and a few rare earth monierals and Barley according to googleHal Jordan wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 4:51 pm How long before Trump goes full on Dr Evil and announces one BILLION percent tariffs on China?
Hopefully he loses all interest in being President now and retreats to Florida golf courses full-time.Hellraiser wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 5:42 pm He blinked. He was facing facing outright revolt from GOP senators and congressmen.
That is unfortunately an ignorant understanding of the globabl supply chain. 'Sweatshops' (which aren't actually sweatshops) left China over a decade ago because China was too expensive. Electronics based stuff is the key component of China's exports to the US which by the way which the US is in no position to replace in any meaningful timeframe and can't replicate either pricing or terms.Uncle fester wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 2:16 pmIt does and the septics could probably do without an extra pair of sweatshop-made shoes. This is the position the US found itself in during the great depression when they were the factory to the world.
However, the global economy is built on this demand and you pull that demand, the whole thing will collapse.
Well he could have said, we're putting 10% on everyone because we need income to deal with the nation debt, which is fair and you're all in the same boat and if you retaliate we'll go for you and pretty much everyone would have happily toed the line. Instead we've this shitshow.Sandstorm wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 6:12 pm Start with 43% extra tariffs (on EU for example), then drop back and settle on 10% increase. This is how he’s always Made Deals.
Trump still wins.
Well MTG sold her stock before this shitshow; but the chances of the SEC doing anything is less than zero.Flockwitt wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 6:17 pmWell he could have said, we're putting 10% on everyone because we need income to deal with the nation debt, which is fair and you're all in the same boat and if you retaliate we'll go for you and pretty much everyone would have happily toed the line. Instead we've this shitshow.Sandstorm wrote: Wed Apr 09, 2025 6:12 pm Start with 43% extra tariffs (on EU for example), then drop back and settle on 10% increase. This is how he’s always Made Deals.
Trump still wins.
I'd be looking very carefully at Trump's inner circle's stock purchases over the last day or so.