Stop voting for fucking Tories

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Tichtheid
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I like neeps wrote: Thu Aug 25, 2022 3:47 pm
I'm kind of fine with the energy privatisation - yes companies are destroying the planet and yes they've created untold wealth for states actively hostile to the west and democracy but "the market" hasn't failed. We've just cut off a major supplier to try and stop a war. The market would surely suggest we don't do that?

Water is obviously a disaster.

The market, or marketisation of utilities has failed, some things are just not suitable for running that way and energy is one of them, defence, health provision, policing are others.

If I make a widget then a market is an efficient way of getting my widget sold, if it is no good or nobody wants it then the market will soon show that and public funds are not wasted in subsidising it, although to an extent they are, public funds educate the workers who make the widget, they heal them, they provide roads, security, legislation regarding copyright etc and they will put out your fire, at every step public funds underwrite private business.

A long term view of the energy sector would have seen nuclear power stations being built in the UK until the holy grail of full self-sufficiency via renewables is achievable.
However that is expensive and contrary to market values and that is why the market has no place in energy provision.
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SaintK
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Speaking on behalf of most of us :thumbup:
_Os_
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Tichtheid wrote: Thu Aug 25, 2022 2:53 pm Youngest is in the process of moving to London for first proper job after uni. She and three friends are trying to find a flat. So far they've been too late on enquiring about a place that had been listed that same day, another place they thought they had secured was lost when others offered to pay more and today they've had to bid £30 above the advertised weekly rent for the flat they are going for, two other sets of people offered first ten then twenty pounds more per week. They're still waiting to see if they have been successful in their bid.

I only became aware last week that the current advertised rent in London is the minimum and you now have to bid more.

It's a shite state of affairs, between them they will paying almost £3.5K per month towards someone else's mortgage.
As per the chat with Torq on this thread a few weeks back. It's now not such a sweet deal being a landlord and there's a lot more risk too. So landlords have sold up and there's now less houses to rent. There's a housing shortage where people want to live (London and anywhere commutable to London), less talked about there's also a shortage of houses to rent. So people now bid on a house to rent like they would when buying a house, there's bidding wars over renters as you describe. Landlords are also incentivised into HMOs because the yields are higher and the costs/risks are much the same.

If their landlord looks like he's going under next year when interest rates really start pumping (if he's on a HMO mortgage he's probably already paying around 4%-ish, probably just paying the interest and not the mortgage itself), if he hasn't fixed he'll first try to raise their rent and if they simply can't pay he'll evict them so he can sell. You can make a stab of what his margin is by looking up when he bought and the price he paid, guessing what the mortgage is based on that (likely the maximum LTV he could get, and maybe re-mortgaged since then depending on what his strategy was) and comparing it to £3,500. If he bought/re-mortgaged in the £400k-£500k ballpark it could all be a lot tighter than you think when letting agents fees (normally 10%)/tax (at least 20%)/maintenance is taken into account.

I can tell you just off the info you've given, that if the landlord is typical he's probably paying about £1k-£1.5k in mortgage fees per month on a London house (guessing mortgage £300k-£450k), £350 on letting agent fees, £630 on tax (agent takes their cut before the landlord receives the rent, so they only pay tax on the income they're getting). The risk to the landlord providing the service is bankruptcy and losing everything if they haven't incorporated (probably haven't), hopefully he fixed the mortgage.
Biffer
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I like neeps wrote: Thu Aug 25, 2022 3:47 pm
ia801310 wrote: Thu Aug 25, 2022 3:29 pm
fishfoodie wrote: Wed Aug 24, 2022 9:36 pm

Energy companies now asking for £100 Billion to cap Energy costs for the UK, & avoid who knows what in terms of societal breakdown, & deaths from hypothermia, & frankly starvation, as the most vulnerable have to choose between essentials.

With that kind of money, they could have upgraded most of the house stock in the UK !

It also neatly shows why if there's any spare cash in the back of the sofa, you're better off spending it on weapons, & sending them to Ukraine, if it'll shortens the War ! An Elizabeth-class aircraft carrier, & 24 F35Bs cost less than £9 billion, so just the UKs additional energy costs for the next couple of years, would turn the Ukraine into a force that could beat up the Orc rabble worse than any red headed stepchild !
Even as a Tory I think that the time has come to renationalise the water and the energy companies. The market has failed.

I'm kind of fine with the energy privatisation - yes companies are destroying the planet and yes they've created untold wealth for states actively hostile to the west and democracy but "the market" hasn't failed. We've just cut off a major supplier to try and stop a war. The market would surely suggest we don't do that?

Water is obviously a disaster.
Well, fundamentally if you have a market where the exit of one supplier or consumer distorts the market, it’s by definition not a true free market and should be regulated. We do some of that but the mechanism in place to regulate it is not sufficient to protect the consumers from debilitating price swings. So further action is required to prevent disastrous impacts of the market failure.

Also the structure of electricity pricing being related to gas generation, and the fact there are open trans national markets has impacted all of us. Scotlands generation comes substantially from renewables and nuclear, so why have prices risen as much there when the cost of generation has changed very little? Similarly in France 90% of electricity is generated from non fossil fuel sources so being connected to a trans national market has damaged them.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
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Biffer wrote: Thu Aug 25, 2022 5:42 pm
I like neeps wrote: Thu Aug 25, 2022 3:47 pm
ia801310 wrote: Thu Aug 25, 2022 3:29 pm

Even as a Tory I think that the time has come to renationalise the water and the energy companies. The market has failed.

I'm kind of fine with the energy privatisation - yes companies are destroying the planet and yes they've created untold wealth for states actively hostile to the west and democracy but "the market" hasn't failed. We've just cut off a major supplier to try and stop a war. The market would surely suggest we don't do that?

Water is obviously a disaster.
Well, fundamentally if you have a market where the exit of one supplier or consumer distorts the market, it’s by definition not a true free market and should be regulated. We do some of that but the mechanism in place to regulate it is not sufficient to protect the consumers from debilitating price swings. So further action is required to prevent disastrous impacts of the market failure.

Also the structure of electricity pricing being related to gas generation, and the fact there are open trans national markets has impacted all of us. Scotlands generation comes substantially from renewables and nuclear, so why have prices risen as much there when the cost of generation has changed very little? Similarly in France 90% of electricity is generated from non fossil fuel sources so being connected to a trans national market has damaged them.
The price of renewables has risen because they're tied to the price of gas. It is fairly simple to change that and now there is an overwhelming reason to I am sure they will. It's an easy, quick win for the incoming govt.

Energy isn't a free market because of the cartel. But we'd be doing deals with them anyway. The UK will always need fossil fuels. Or Uranium, and again look at countries with uranium deposits.
Biffer
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I like neeps wrote: Thu Aug 25, 2022 6:30 pm
Biffer wrote: Thu Aug 25, 2022 5:42 pm
I like neeps wrote: Thu Aug 25, 2022 3:47 pm

I'm kind of fine with the energy privatisation - yes companies are destroying the planet and yes they've created untold wealth for states actively hostile to the west and democracy but "the market" hasn't failed. We've just cut off a major supplier to try and stop a war. The market would surely suggest we don't do that?

Water is obviously a disaster.
Well, fundamentally if you have a market where the exit of one supplier or consumer distorts the market, it’s by definition not a true free market and should be regulated. We do some of that but the mechanism in place to regulate it is not sufficient to protect the consumers from debilitating price swings. So further action is required to prevent disastrous impacts of the market failure.

Also the structure of electricity pricing being related to gas generation, and the fact there are open trans national markets has impacted all of us. Scotlands generation comes substantially from renewables and nuclear, so why have prices risen as much there when the cost of generation has changed very little? Similarly in France 90% of electricity is generated from non fossil fuel sources so being connected to a trans national market has damaged them.
The price of renewables has risen because they're tied to the price of gas. It is fairly simple to change that and now there is an overwhelming reason to I am sure they will. It's an easy, quick win for the incoming govt.

Energy isn't a free market because of the cartel. But we'd be doing deals with them anyway. The UK will always need fossil fuels. Or Uranium, and again look at countries with uranium deposits.
Yeah, that’s the point I’m making. It’s not anything close to a free market, so regulation is essential to protect the consumer, and indeed to an extent the supplier. Those regs must be changed to decouple from gas.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
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vball
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I like neeps wrote: Thu Aug 25, 2022 9:48 am
GogLais wrote: Thu Aug 25, 2022 9:43 am
Rhubarb & Custard wrote: Thu Aug 25, 2022 9:28 am It's the I'll help 'my kids' which is so often telling.
Not sure what you mean. I’d pay my sons’ mortgages or whatever for a few months if it came to it and I wouldn’t do the same for somebody else’s. Does that make me a villain?
No.

However, the attitude R&C is saying is "all this asset inflation is earned (wrong) and good because I can provide for my family" is bad long term because it entrenches inequality. It's a very broken society if BOMA or BODG (bank of dead grandparents) is the leading mortgage provider.
When we got married, my folks bought us a fridge and my wife's mum bought us cutlery. When my folks died we got £8k and nothing from my wife's side. Now that my kids are starting to work and thinking about buying, I would give them what they need. I only got into Uni as a mature student at 33 (did not apply myself at school) and have as other see me, worked bloody hard and moved to where I could get work. We had 15% interest on our mortgage at times. It is awful for loads of people and if helping my kids is being selfish, then that is what I am.

The govt needs to do something more than it is doing.
Romans said ....Illegitimi non carborundum --- Today we say .. WTF
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fishfoodie
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vball wrote: Thu Aug 25, 2022 6:55 pm
When we got married, my folks bought us a fridge and my wife's mum bought us cutlery. When my folks died we got £8k and nothing from my wife's side. Now that my kids are starting to work and thinking about buying, I would give them what they need. I only got into Uni as a mature student at 33 (did not apply myself at school) and have as other see me, worked bloody hard and moved to where I could get work. We had 15% interest on our mortgage at times. It is awful for loads of people and if helping my kids is being selfish, then that is what I am.
It's not that your being selfish, or doing anything unnatural ....
vball wrote: Thu Aug 25, 2022 6:55 pm The govt needs to do something more than it is doing.
it's just that this is what you, as a member of the group the Tories are continually seducing with rising house prices, need to be telling the bastards !

You have the ability to help out your children, but there are millions of households who can't, & when the market goes pop; your ability to help kids will disappear, & if it goes pop after you've helped them, they'll be in negative equity,, & you'll have lost most, if not all the equity you'd built up while the bubble inflated.

The Politicians need to keep to house building targets they keep on setting, & then failing on, because this way, the bubble will deflate, instead of exploding, & people get singed, not burned, & everyone benefits.
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Tichtheid
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I know it's terribly old fashioned, but I'd like to see a massive house building project in the UK, houses that would be publicly owned and for which you payed rent at an affordable level. Those houses would be maintained by publicly employed trades people who did a good job for a decent wage and the utilities would be provided by state-owned suppliers whose goal was just that, to provide the best service possible without the garrote of the profit margin to be considered.

In short we pay into the common good for things that we all need, and the market supplies things that we choose.

It really wasn't that broken a model, it needed to be upgraded, not obliterated.
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Tichtheid wrote: Thu Aug 25, 2022 9:47 pm I know it's terribly old fashioned, but I'd like to see a massive house building project in the UK, houses that would be publicly owned and for which you payed rent at an affordable level. Those houses would be maintained by publicly employed trades people who did a good job for a decent wage and the utilities would be provided by state-owned suppliers whose goal was just that, to provide the best service possible without the garrote of the profit margin to be considered.

In short we pay into the common good for things that we all need, and the market supplies things that we choose.
Communist.
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EnergiseR2 wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 6:53 am See Truss is giving Macron a dig out at home by saying the jury is out on him. Nothing like a hatchet faced Brit telling the French they are shite to get them to put their differences aside. I'd say he has a grin from ear to ear
She's also decided to trigger article 16. A trade war in a cost of living crisis seems brave...

Truss won't take the Tories into the election. Her party don't like her, the public don't like her and she's about to lead us in the worst hit to living standards since the war. Her only plans are making it worse or not "talking" the country into a recession. I don't know if she's figured out yet a recession is what happens when people's disposable incomes are decimated and the hospitality economy can't afford their bills.
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Torquemada 1420
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I like neeps wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 7:02 am
EnergiseR2 wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 6:53 am See Truss is giving Macron a dig out at home by saying the jury is out on him. Nothing like a hatchet faced Brit telling the French they are shite to get them to put their differences aside. I'd say he has a grin from ear to ear
She's also decided to trigger article 16. A trade war in a cost of living crisis seems brave...

Truss won't take the Tories into the election. Her party don't like her, the public don't like her and she's about to lead us in the worst hit to living standards since the war. Her only plans are making it worse or not "talking" the country into a recession. I don't know if she's figured out yet a recession is what happens when people's disposable incomes are decimated and the hospitality economy can't afford their bills.
70% of pubs might close
https://www.cips.org/supply-management/ ... rgy-costs/

Even if that number is way off, the sector will be destroyed.
dpedin
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I like neeps wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 7:02 am
EnergiseR2 wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 6:53 am See Truss is giving Macron a dig out at home by saying the jury is out on him. Nothing like a hatchet faced Brit telling the French they are shite to get them to put their differences aside. I'd say he has a grin from ear to ear
She's also decided to trigger article 16. A trade war in a cost of living crisis seems brave...

Truss won't take the Tories into the election. Her party don't like her, the public don't like her and she's about to lead us in the worst hit to living standards since the war. Her only plans are making it worse or not "talking" the country into a recession. I don't know if she's figured out yet a recession is what happens when people's disposable incomes are decimated and the hospitality economy can't afford their bills.
She is a complete moron, however she is their moron and is being worked from the back by some very dodgy dark figures. She, like the Blonde Bumblecunt, will do as she is told to keep their ERG, oil and gas funded, big business and venture/disaster capitalists backers happy. She is a zealot and will populate her cabinet with her Britannia Unchained buddies and they will collectively do immense damage whilst in power. Get ready to welcome Freeports and Charter cities and say goodbye to democracy as we know it. A dangerous twat of the first order.
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Torquemada 1420 wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 7:10 am
I like neeps wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 7:02 am
EnergiseR2 wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 6:53 am See Truss is giving Macron a dig out at home by saying the jury is out on him. Nothing like a hatchet faced Brit telling the French they are shite to get them to put their differences aside. I'd say he has a grin from ear to ear
She's also decided to trigger article 16. A trade war in a cost of living crisis seems brave...

Truss won't take the Tories into the election. Her party don't like her, the public don't like her and she's about to lead us in the worst hit to living standards since the war. Her only plans are making it worse or not "talking" the country into a recession. I don't know if she's figured out yet a recession is what happens when people's disposable incomes are decimated and the hospitality economy can't afford their bills.
70% of pubs might close
https://www.cips.org/supply-management/ ... rgy-costs/

Even if that number is way off, the sector will be destroyed.
And then restaurants, cafes, coffee shops, with them. High street retail in a further decline when people stop going to population centres. Everyone can see it coming, surely Truss and her advisors can too.

I don't think it'll be 70%. A part of me thinks when people stop heating their homes so much they'll quite fancy going to the pub.

Also every single pu , restaurant etc is going to start turning down their thermostat which will help. They're thinking 2021 heating usage which isn't a reality.
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SaintK
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dpedin wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 7:18 am
I like neeps wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 7:02 am
EnergiseR2 wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 6:53 am See Truss is giving Macron a dig out at home by saying the jury is out on him. Nothing like a hatchet faced Brit telling the French they are shite to get them to put their differences aside. I'd say he has a grin from ear to ear
She's also decided to trigger article 16. A trade war in a cost of living crisis seems brave...

Truss won't take the Tories into the election. Her party don't like her, the public don't like her and she's about to lead us in the worst hit to living standards since the war. Her only plans are making it worse or not "talking" the country into a recession. I don't know if she's figured out yet a recession is what happens when people's disposable incomes are decimated and the hospitality economy can't afford their bills.
She is a complete moron, however she is their moron and is being worked from the back by some very dodgy dark figures. She, like the Blonde Bumblecunt, will do as she is told to keep their ERG, oil and gas funded, big business and venture/disaster capitalists backers happy. She is a zealot and will populate her cabinet with her Britannia Unchained buddies and they will collectively do immense damage whilst in power. Get ready to welcome Freeports and Charter cities and say goodbye to democracy as we know it. A dangerous twat of the first order.
Apart from Raab who backed the wrong horse and will be sacked. Otherwise spot on unfortunately!
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SaintK wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 7:40 am
dpedin wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 7:18 am
I like neeps wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 7:02 am

She's also decided to trigger article 16. A trade war in a cost of living crisis seems brave...

Truss won't take the Tories into the election. Her party don't like her, the public don't like her and she's about to lead us in the worst hit to living standards since the war. Her only plans are making it worse or not "talking" the country into a recession. I don't know if she's figured out yet a recession is what happens when people's disposable incomes are decimated and the hospitality economy can't afford their bills.
She is a complete moron, however she is their moron and is being worked from the back by some very dodgy dark figures. She, like the Blonde Bumblecunt, will do as she is told to keep their ERG, oil and gas funded, big business and venture/disaster capitalists backers happy. She is a zealot and will populate her cabinet with her Britannia Unchained buddies and they will collectively do immense damage whilst in power. Get ready to welcome Freeports and Charter cities and say goodbye to democracy as we know it. A dangerous twat of the first order.
Apart from Raab who backed the wrong horse and will be sacked. Otherwise spot on unfortunately!
There's absolutely no chance of charter cities happening. I don't think it's really true. Truss is going to come face to face with reality and like Johnson she believes in nothing so she will announce lockdown esk measures for energy prices to save her skin as much as anything - it's just a matter of when.
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“Facts are meaningless. You could use facts to prove anything that's even remotely true.”
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fishfoodie
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I declare this, the 26th day of August 2022; National Punch a Tory MP in the Face Day !
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SaintK
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fishfoodie wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 9:14 am I declare this, the 26th day of August 2022; National Punch a Tory MP in the Face Day !
And so many of them are so punchable!!!!
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SaintK
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Insane_Homer wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 8:06 am
This is probably why
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SaintK wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 9:41 am
Insane_Homer wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 8:06 am
This is probably why
The government have nothing to say as they aren't a government right now.

Graham Brady needs to start acting in the interest of the country. Call an end to the nonsense and get a government in place.
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fishfoodie
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I like neeps wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 9:46 am
SaintK wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 9:41 am
Insane_Homer wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 8:06 am
This is probably why
The government have nothing to say as they aren't a government right now.

Graham Brady needs to start acting in the interest of the country. Call an end to the nonsense and get a government in place.
What was their excuse in the last 6 months, when they've all known since March what this current bump was going to be ?
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People in fuel poverty are less likely to be Tory voters I guess and and if this Government doesn't at the very least take measures to maintain energy supplies and put a brake on escalating costs and they'd be even less likely to vote Tory next time. You'd think that if only for cynical reasons they'd stop sitting back and waiting for things to happen by magic...
Biffer
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tabascoboy wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 10:03 am People in fuel poverty are less likely to be Tory voters I guess and and if this Government doesn't at the very least take measures to maintain energy supplies and put a brake on escalating costs and they'd be even less likely to vote Tory next time. You'd think that if only for cynical reasons they'd stop sitting back and waiting for things to happen by magic...
You might be surprised. They got a big vote in working class areas in the north last time round who seem to have already substantially switched back, this will only reinforce that. Also, there are a huge number of pensioners vote tory, and not just wealthy ones. There will be a lot of older voters struggling on a fixed income with no potential to increase that by doing extra work etc., and they have to heat their homes during the day rather than going into the office.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
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SaintK
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Says the man with multiple homes here and abroad who claims some of his utility bills at the taxpayers expense!
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SaintK wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 10:47 am Says the man with multiple homes here and abroad who claims some of his utility bills at the taxpayers expense!
He's a hypocrite but FINALLY someone in government is saying this. Everyone in the next government including labour politicians and every paper in the country should be saying "cut back on usage" every single day.
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fishfoodie wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 9:14 am I declare this, the 26th day of August 2022; National Punch a Tory MP in the Face Day !
A day is entirely inadequate.
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SaintK wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 10:47 am Says the man with multiple homes here and abroad who claims some of his utility bills at the taxpayers expense!
He carefully avoids stating to whom help will be tendered.
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I like neeps wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 10:48 am
SaintK wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 10:47 am Says the man with multiple homes here and abroad who claims some of his utility bills at the taxpayers expense!
He's a hypocrite but FINALLY someone in government is saying this. Everyone in the next government including labour politicians and every paper in the country should be saying "cut back on usage" every single day.
Starting with Christmas lights! ( Bah humbug... well we'll allow solar powered though )
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SaintK
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I like neeps wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 10:48 am
SaintK wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 10:47 am Says the man with multiple homes here and abroad who claims some of his utility bills at the taxpayers expense!
He's a hypocrite but FINALLY someone in government is saying this. Everyone in the next government including labour politicians and every paper in the country should be saying "cut back on usage" every single day.
Yes, I agree up to a point, though of course there will be 1'000's who are already suffering fuel poverty and have nothing more to cut back
Looks like war in Ukraine will be used as camouflage for government mistakes, incompetence and mismanagement of our energy supply over the years
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SaintK wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 11:28 am
I like neeps wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 10:48 am
SaintK wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 10:47 am Says the man with multiple homes here and abroad who claims some of his utility bills at the taxpayers expense!
He's a hypocrite but FINALLY someone in government is saying this. Everyone in the next government including labour politicians and every paper in the country should be saying "cut back on usage" every single day.
Yes, I agree up to a point, though of course there will be 1'000's who are already suffering fuel poverty and have nothing more to cut back
Looks like war in Ukraine will be used as camouflage for government mistakes, incompetence and mismanagement of our energy supply over the years
Like covid then.
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tabascoboy
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EnergiseR2 wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 6:53 am See Truss is giving Macron a dig out at home by saying the jury is out on him. Nothing like a hatchet faced Brit telling the French they are shite to get them to put their differences aside. I'd say he has a grin from ear to ear
A dignified response

Biffer
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Problem here is that the war hasn't created the energy crisis, just emphasised and intensified it. Gas and Oil prices started rising in 2020 and 2021, and although some of that was in turn to do with the pandemic, not all of it was (consider that there was a downturn in demand during the pandemic). We have reached a critical point in energy supply/demand globally. We don't have enough supply and the demand is ever increasing. This was partially concealed by the USA's rush for fracking in the first ten years of this century, which raised supply against increasing demand. Obviously our shallow populist political leaders are going to ignore this, partly through convenience partly through a genuine lack of understanding (or capability to understand). But we are in trouble globally in energy terms and we will never return to the cheap energy of the early part of the 21st century.

Massive renewable expansion is the only answer - and the only way that reasonably cheap energy will be provided.

But we'll need, to a certain extent, to make energy production a critical national resource again, either through massively restrictive legislation or through nationalisation.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
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Biffer wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 11:55 am Problem here is that the war hasn't created the energy crisis, just emphasised and intensified it. Gas and Oil prices started rising in 2020 and 2021, and although some of that was in turn to do with the pandemic, not all of it was (consider that there was a downturn in demand during the pandemic). We have reached a critical point in energy supply/demand globally. We don't have enough supply and the demand is ever increasing. This was partially concealed by the USA's rush for fracking in the first ten years of this century, which raised supply against increasing demand. Obviously our shallow populist political leaders are going to ignore this, partly through convenience partly through a genuine lack of understanding (or capability to understand). But we are in trouble globally in energy terms and we will never return to the cheap energy of the early part of the 21st century.

Massive renewable expansion is the only answer - and the only way that reasonably cheap energy will be provided.

But we'll need, to a certain extent, to make energy production a critical national resource again, either through massively restrictive legislation or through nationalisation.
I agree about the need for expansion in renewables but part of the supply issue is down to US foreign policy decisions. Iran and Venezuela could be helpful additional sources of gas and oil but... they're not.
Biffer
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robmatic wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 12:08 pm
Biffer wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 11:55 am Problem here is that the war hasn't created the energy crisis, just emphasised and intensified it. Gas and Oil prices started rising in 2020 and 2021, and although some of that was in turn to do with the pandemic, not all of it was (consider that there was a downturn in demand during the pandemic). We have reached a critical point in energy supply/demand globally. We don't have enough supply and the demand is ever increasing. This was partially concealed by the USA's rush for fracking in the first ten years of this century, which raised supply against increasing demand. Obviously our shallow populist political leaders are going to ignore this, partly through convenience partly through a genuine lack of understanding (or capability to understand). But we are in trouble globally in energy terms and we will never return to the cheap energy of the early part of the 21st century.

Massive renewable expansion is the only answer - and the only way that reasonably cheap energy will be provided.

But we'll need, to a certain extent, to make energy production a critical national resource again, either through massively restrictive legislation or through nationalisation.
I agree about the need for expansion in renewables but part of the supply issue is down to US foreign policy decisions. Iran and Venezuela could be helpful additional sources of gas and oil but... they're not.
Concentrating on carbon resources only makes the problem worse in the long run, increasing the need for cooling and protection from extreme weather. And you're still in hock to overseas countries. Do everything you can domestically first.
And are there two g’s in Bugger Off?
I like neeps
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robmatic wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 12:08 pm
Biffer wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 11:55 am Problem here is that the war hasn't created the energy crisis, just emphasised and intensified it. Gas and Oil prices started rising in 2020 and 2021, and although some of that was in turn to do with the pandemic, not all of it was (consider that there was a downturn in demand during the pandemic). We have reached a critical point in energy supply/demand globally. We don't have enough supply and the demand is ever increasing. This was partially concealed by the USA's rush for fracking in the first ten years of this century, which raised supply against increasing demand. Obviously our shallow populist political leaders are going to ignore this, partly through convenience partly through a genuine lack of understanding (or capability to understand). But we are in trouble globally in energy terms and we will never return to the cheap energy of the early part of the 21st century.

Massive renewable expansion is the only answer - and the only way that reasonably cheap energy will be provided.

But we'll need, to a certain extent, to make energy production a critical national resource again, either through massively restrictive legislation or through nationalisation.
I agree about the need for expansion in renewables but part of the supply issue is down to US foreign policy decisions. Iran and Venezuela could be helpful additional sources of gas and oil but... they're not.
Venezuela is back online I think. The US have ended their coup because they want their oil.
Dinsdale Piranha
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robmatic wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 12:08 pm
Biffer wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 11:55 am Problem here is that the war hasn't created the energy crisis, just emphasised and intensified it. Gas and Oil prices started rising in 2020 and 2021, and although some of that was in turn to do with the pandemic, not all of it was (consider that there was a downturn in demand during the pandemic). We have reached a critical point in energy supply/demand globally. We don't have enough supply and the demand is ever increasing. This was partially concealed by the USA's rush for fracking in the first ten years of this century, which raised supply against increasing demand. Obviously our shallow populist political leaders are going to ignore this, partly through convenience partly through a genuine lack of understanding (or capability to understand). But we are in trouble globally in energy terms and we will never return to the cheap energy of the early part of the 21st century.

Massive renewable expansion is the only answer - and the only way that reasonably cheap energy will be provided.

But we'll need, to a certain extent, to make energy production a critical national resource again, either through massively restrictive legislation or through nationalisation.
I agree about the need for expansion in renewables but part of the supply issue is down to US foreign policy decisions. Iran and Venezuela could be helpful additional sources of gas and oil but... they're not.
Massive renewables expansion won't make things cheaper, or more reliable. On its own it will do the opposite. The only renewable without intermittency issues is biomass and that's not a scaleable solution, in the UK at least.

For every GW of wind/solar you need a GW of reliable power on standby. Currently this is gas. The less gas you use, the more expensive it will be to have it on standby.

Nuclear is reliable, energy dense, and doesn't have intermittency issues. Thing is, if you've got nuclear then there's no reason not to run it flat out all the time. Costs the same either way so it's only really appropriate for baseload so once you've spent the money it will reduce the demand for renewables.

Wind has some good potential for demand that can be time shifted - think charging your EV when it's windy at night - home batteries can also benefit from this. You can't use it for anything you need to rely on.

We basically need grid scale storage. This is an unsolved problem and there isn't anything coming in the near term. Until then, wind/solar have to be backed up by something else - at a cost.
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Raggs
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Dinsdale Piranha wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 12:50 pm
robmatic wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 12:08 pm
Biffer wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 11:55 am Problem here is that the war hasn't created the energy crisis, just emphasised and intensified it. Gas and Oil prices started rising in 2020 and 2021, and although some of that was in turn to do with the pandemic, not all of it was (consider that there was a downturn in demand during the pandemic). We have reached a critical point in energy supply/demand globally. We don't have enough supply and the demand is ever increasing. This was partially concealed by the USA's rush for fracking in the first ten years of this century, which raised supply against increasing demand. Obviously our shallow populist political leaders are going to ignore this, partly through convenience partly through a genuine lack of understanding (or capability to understand). But we are in trouble globally in energy terms and we will never return to the cheap energy of the early part of the 21st century.

Massive renewable expansion is the only answer - and the only way that reasonably cheap energy will be provided.

But we'll need, to a certain extent, to make energy production a critical national resource again, either through massively restrictive legislation or through nationalisation.
I agree about the need for expansion in renewables but part of the supply issue is down to US foreign policy decisions. Iran and Venezuela could be helpful additional sources of gas and oil but... they're not.
Massive renewables expansion won't make things cheaper, or more reliable. On its own it will do the opposite. The only renewable without intermittency issues is biomass and that's not a scaleable solution, in the UK at least.

For every GW of wind/solar you need a GW of reliable power on standby. Currently this is gas. The less gas you use, the more expensive it will be to have it on standby.

Nuclear is reliable, energy dense, and doesn't have intermittency issues. Thing is, if you've got nuclear then there's no reason not to run it flat out all the time. Costs the same either way so it's only really appropriate for baseload so once you've spent the money it will reduce the demand for renewables.

Wind has some good potential for demand that can be time shifted - think charging your EV when it's windy at night - home batteries can also benefit from this. You can't use it for anything you need to rely on.

We basically need grid scale storage. This is an unsolved problem and there isn't anything coming in the near term. Until then, wind/solar have to be backed up by something else - at a cost.
Electric cars with suitable chargers can help massively with this. It's already being trialled extensively. As more and more cars get networked the more effective it'll be.
Give a man a fire and he'll be warm for a day. Set a man on fire and he'll be warm for the rest of his life.
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Hal Jordan
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Biffer wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 10:06 am
tabascoboy wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 10:03 am People in fuel poverty are less likely to be Tory voters I guess and and if this Government doesn't at the very least take measures to maintain energy supplies and put a brake on escalating costs and they'd be even less likely to vote Tory next time. You'd think that if only for cynical reasons they'd stop sitting back and waiting for things to happen by magic...
You might be surprised. They got a big vote in working class areas in the north last time round who seem to have already substantially switched back, this will only reinforce that. Also, there are a huge number of pensioners vote tory, and not just wealthy ones. There will be a lot of older voters struggling on a fixed income with no potential to increase that by doing extra work etc., and they have to heat their homes during the day rather than going into the office.
My paternal grandmother admitted to my father on her death bed that she had voted Tory all her life, but had lied to my grandfather and said she voted Liberal as he had always done.

They started out in pretty poor circumstances in the East End, but managed to end up having their retirement in their own bungalow in Ramsgate, thanks partly to my dad winning a scholarship and being part of the lucky generation that got free university education, allowing him to effectively pay them back by contributing to the house.

I suspect she had that fear of returning to poverty that meant she was willing to kick downwards to keep what she had.
petej
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Dinsdale Piranha wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 12:50 pm
robmatic wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 12:08 pm
Biffer wrote: Fri Aug 26, 2022 11:55 am Problem here is that the war hasn't created the energy crisis, just emphasised and intensified it. Gas and Oil prices started rising in 2020 and 2021, and although some of that was in turn to do with the pandemic, not all of it was (consider that there was a downturn in demand during the pandemic). We have reached a critical point in energy supply/demand globally. We don't have enough supply and the demand is ever increasing. This was partially concealed by the USA's rush for fracking in the first ten years of this century, which raised supply against increasing demand. Obviously our shallow populist political leaders are going to ignore this, partly through convenience partly through a genuine lack of understanding (or capability to understand). But we are in trouble globally in energy terms and we will never return to the cheap energy of the early part of the 21st century.

Massive renewable expansion is the only answer - and the only way that reasonably cheap energy will be provided.

But we'll need, to a certain extent, to make energy production a critical national resource again, either through massively restrictive legislation or through nationalisation.
I agree about the need for expansion in renewables but part of the supply issue is down to US foreign policy decisions. Iran and Venezuela could be helpful additional sources of gas and oil but... they're not.
Massive renewables expansion won't make things cheaper, or more reliable. On its own it will do the opposite. The only renewable without intermittency issues is biomass and that's not a scaleable solution, in the UK at least.

For every GW of wind/solar you need a GW of reliable power on standby. Currently this is gas. The less gas you use, the more expensive it will be to have it on standby.

Nuclear is reliable, energy dense, and doesn't have intermittency issues. Thing is, if you've got nuclear then there's no reason not to run it flat out all the time. Costs the same either way so it's only really appropriate for baseload so once you've spent the money it will reduce the demand for renewables.

Wind has some good potential for demand that can be time shifted - think charging your EV when it's windy at night - home batteries can also benefit from this. You can't use it for anything you need to rely on.

We basically need grid scale storage. This is an unsolved problem and there isn't anything coming in the near term. Until then, wind/solar have to be backed up by something else - at a cost.
Good post. Storage can also be in the form of hydrogen. Baseloading nuclear and when excess electricity is present use it to charge batteries both electric and heat (short term storage) and generate hydrogen (longer term storage).
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