NPR

Raggs wrote: ↑Tue May 18, 2021 10:23 am From the data released a few days ago:

Age range 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80+
% first dose 67.6% 77.9% 89.8% 95.5% 98.1% 94.6% 97.4% 100%* 94.9%

Not too bad, considering some 50+ are likely still lining up their first dose. Does seem to be a dropping in uptake though, hopefully it's just due to the length of time it's been open, rather than anything else.

Un Pilier wrote: ↑Thu May 20, 2021 5:29 pm All things considered, I’m feeling pretty positive right now, though we are nowhere near normal footfall anywhere.

I watched some of the Giro today and was really struck by the overheads of Florence, a city I know well. I have never seen it anywhere near as quiet, even in the early hours of the morning.

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 8:12 am

Un Pilier wrote: ↑Thu May 20, 2021 5:29 pm All things considered, I’m feeling pretty positive right now, though we are nowhere near normal footfall anywhere.

I watched some of the Giro today and was really struck by the overheads of Florence, a city I know well. I have never seen it anywhere near as quiet, even in the early hours of the morning.

Last time I was in Florence the place was absolutely rammed with Chinese tourists (as indeed was the case for most 'touristy' locations over the last few years, and flights as well). So I guess no surprise they're not around.

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Thu May 20, 2021 10:08 pm

dpedin wrote: ↑Thu May 20, 2021 8:22 pm

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Thu May 20, 2021 5:15 pm

I’m the same as you. UK is in a great place at last.

The only issue is the more transmissible the variant the higher the % of the pop required to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity and stop community transmission. If this variant is 50% more transmissible than the Kent one then that increases the figure required for herd immunity from the 80-85% previously thought required. Ive not seen the new % requirement and haven't done the calculation myself yet but it does stretch the target a little bit further away. Also as long as we have community transmission of the new variant then the more cases we will get - only 55% of the UK pop have had at least one jab so there are still c30m folk unvaccinated - and the more hospitalisations and long covid type cases we have and with still a lot of unknowns about the long term effect it is probably prudent not to just let the unvaccinated pop be put at unknown health risks? Even though hospitalisations are much lower in younger age groups it could potentially still be a lot of folk, a small % of a very large number is still likely to be a very large number! The last thing we want is for the NHS, which is now focusing upon the huge backlog of non covid cases to have to deal with lots of admissions of covid cases - the cancers, the cardiac cases etc need to be the priority. Better to be prudent and keep social distancing and masks etc until we reach higher levels of vaccination and cut community transmission to very low levels, it is only a matter a weeks away. Lets just be sensible, we are in a good place it would be a shame to snatch defeat ...

First of all there’s no evidence that any new variant is 50% more transmissible.

Second, you’re ruining my buzz man.

dpedin wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 9:09 am

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Thu May 20, 2021 10:08 pm

dpedin wrote: ↑Thu May 20, 2021 8:22 pm

The only issue is the more transmissible the variant the higher the % of the pop required to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity and stop community transmission. If this variant is 50% more transmissible than the Kent one then that increases the figure required for herd immunity from the 80-85% previously thought required. Ive not seen the new % requirement and haven't done the calculation myself yet but it does stretch the target a little bit further away. Also as long as we have community transmission of the new variant then the more cases we will get - only 55% of the UK pop have had at least one jab so there are still c30m folk unvaccinated - and the more hospitalisations and long covid type cases we have and with still a lot of unknowns about the long term effect it is probably prudent not to just let the unvaccinated pop be put at unknown health risks? Even though hospitalisations are much lower in younger age groups it could potentially still be a lot of folk, a small % of a very large number is still likely to be a very large number! The last thing we want is for the NHS, which is now focusing upon the huge backlog of non covid cases to have to deal with lots of admissions of covid cases - the cancers, the cardiac cases etc need to be the priority. Better to be prudent and keep social distancing and masks etc until we reach higher levels of vaccination and cut community transmission to very low levels, it is only a matter a weeks away. Lets just be sensible, we are in a good place it would be a shame to snatch defeat ...

First of all there’s no evidence that any new variant is 50% more transmissible.

Second, you’re ruining my buzz man.

Sorry - I did say 'if this variant is 50% more transmissible' ... the Indian/Johnson-Modi variant is reported by SAGE to possibly be up to 50% more transmissible, it might not be, it might only be 25%?

Measles which is very transmissible, and dangerous for many, needs 95% of pop vaccinated before herd immunity is achieved. Polio 80%. Measles vaccine is 97% effective. However as we have seen vaccination levels fall for measles due to the anti vaccine nutters and also because of travel to countries countries with lower levels of vaccination we have seen a number of outbreaks of measles across the world. Unfortunately MMR rates in UK have fallen to below 95%. If the trend continues then we begin to lose herd immunity and those who for whatever can't take the MMR vaccine become exposed to infection via community transmission through no fault of their own. Vaccination is our pathway out of this omnishambles, we are doing fantastic work, but the last thing we want to do is feck it up on the cusp of escape from covid19 just because we can't be bothered with mask wearing, social distancing or waiting a few more weeks/months before we go abroad!

Openside wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 5:55 am

Biffer wrote: ↑Thu May 20, 2021 3:29 pm

Openside wrote: ↑Thu May 20, 2021 12:20 pm

Do you know there is this extraordinary thing called conversation with which you can learn all manner of things. For instance I know that 19,000 died before breakfast on the first day of the Somme and I wasn't even there to witness it

But you still had no experience of the Somme. It's your 'in my experience' BS that people are calling out - it's not your experience it's hearsay.

Aah so if was sophistry rather than the validity of my comment. In which case your ‘experience’ only ever counts for you as an individual.

dpedin wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 9:09 am

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Thu May 20, 2021 10:08 pm

dpedin wrote: ↑Thu May 20, 2021 8:22 pm

The only issue is the more transmissible the variant the higher the % of the pop required to be vaccinated to achieve herd immunity and stop community transmission. If this variant is 50% more transmissible than the Kent one then that increases the figure required for herd immunity from the 80-85% previously thought required. Ive not seen the new % requirement and haven't done the calculation myself yet but it does stretch the target a little bit further away. Also as long as we have community transmission of the new variant then the more cases we will get - only 55% of the UK pop have had at least one jab so there are still c30m folk unvaccinated - and the more hospitalisations and long covid type cases we have and with still a lot of unknowns about the long term effect it is probably prudent not to just let the unvaccinated pop be put at unknown health risks? Even though hospitalisations are much lower in younger age groups it could potentially still be a lot of folk, a small % of a very large number is still likely to be a very large number! The last thing we want is for the NHS, which is now focusing upon the huge backlog of non covid cases to have to deal with lots of admissions of covid cases - the cancers, the cardiac cases etc need to be the priority. Better to be prudent and keep social distancing and masks etc until we reach higher levels of vaccination and cut community transmission to very low levels, it is only a matter a weeks away. Lets just be sensible, we are in a good place it would be a shame to snatch defeat ...

First of all there’s no evidence that any new variant is 50% more transmissible.

Second, you’re ruining my buzz man.

Sorry - I did say 'if this variant is 50% more transmissible' ... the Indian/Johnson-Modi variant is reported by SAGE to possibly be up to 50% more transmissible, it might not be, it might only be 25%?

Measles which is very transmissible, and dangerous for many, needs 95% of pop vaccinated before herd immunity is achieved. Polio 80%. Measles vaccine is 97% effective. However as we have seen vaccination levels fall for measles due to the anti vaccine nutters and also because of travel to countries countries with lower levels of vaccination we have seen a number of outbreaks of measles across the world. Unfortunately MMR rates in UK have fallen to below 95%. If the trend continues then we begin to lose herd immunity and those who for whatever can't take the MMR vaccine become exposed to infection via community transmission through no fault of their own. Vaccination is our pathway out of this omnishambles, we are doing fantastic work, but the last thing we want to do is feck it up on the cusp of escape from covid19 just because we can't be bothered with mask wearing, social distancing or waiting a few more weeks/months before we go abroad!

Biffer wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 9:38 am

dpedin wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 9:09 am

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Thu May 20, 2021 10:08 pm

First of all there’s no evidence that any new variant is 50% more transmissible.

Second, you’re ruining my buzz man.

Sorry - I did say 'if this variant is 50% more transmissible' ... the Indian/Johnson-Modi variant is reported by SAGE to possibly be up to 50% more transmissible, it might not be, it might only be 25%?

Measles which is very transmissible, and dangerous for many, needs 95% of pop vaccinated before herd immunity is achieved. Polio 80%. Measles vaccine is 97% effective. However as we have seen vaccination levels fall for measles due to the anti vaccine nutters and also because of travel to countries countries with lower levels of vaccination we have seen a number of outbreaks of measles across the world. Unfortunately MMR rates in UK have fallen to below 95%. If the trend continues then we begin to lose herd immunity and those who for whatever can't take the MMR vaccine become exposed to infection via community transmission through no fault of their own. Vaccination is our pathway out of this omnishambles, we are doing fantastic work, but the last thing we want to do is feck it up on the cusp of escape from covid19 just because we can't be bothered with mask wearing, social distancing or waiting a few more weeks/months before we go abroad!

Slight aside - calculating percentage required to be vaccinated for herd immunity is relatively simple - it's 1–1/R0 (that gives you the fraction, obvs). So if R0=3 it's 1-1/3, so two thirds of the population. If r0 =4 it's 1-1/4 so three quarters of the population. Measles has an R number of something like 18, which is why vaccination levels of 95% are needed.

dpedin wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 11:14 am

Biffer wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 9:38 am

dpedin wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 9:09 am

Sorry - I did say 'if this variant is 50% more transmissible' ... the Indian/Johnson-Modi variant is reported by SAGE to possibly be up to 50% more transmissible, it might not be, it might only be 25%?

Measles which is very transmissible, and dangerous for many, needs 95% of pop vaccinated before herd immunity is achieved. Polio 80%. Measles vaccine is 97% effective. However as we have seen vaccination levels fall for measles due to the anti vaccine nutters and also because of travel to countries countries with lower levels of vaccination we have seen a number of outbreaks of measles across the world. Unfortunately MMR rates in UK have fallen to below 95%. If the trend continues then we begin to lose herd immunity and those who for whatever can't take the MMR vaccine become exposed to infection via community transmission through no fault of their own. Vaccination is our pathway out of this omnishambles, we are doing fantastic work, but the last thing we want to do is feck it up on the cusp of escape from covid19 just because we can't be bothered with mask wearing, social distancing or waiting a few more weeks/months before we go abroad!

Slight aside - calculating percentage required to be vaccinated for herd immunity is relatively simple - it's 1–1/R0 (that gives you the fraction, obvs). So if R0=3 it's 1-1/3, so two thirds of the population. If r0 =4 it's 1-1/4 so three quarters of the population. Measles has an R number of something like 18, which is why vaccination levels of 95% are needed.

Hearing about possibility of 3rd/4th wave of cases in July/August now as a result of relaxations of lock down and spread of Indian variant. It might not happen but those doing modelling are a bit worried. Not clear of impact on hospitalisations and impact on NHS yet. Problem might be that if case numbers go too high we are then back on the travel red list for many countries and EU in particular. Might hold off making final payment for that overseas holiday in August?

Biffer wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 11:57 am

dpedin wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 11:14 am

Biffer wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 9:38 am

Slight aside - calculating percentage required to be vaccinated for herd immunity is relatively simple - it's 1–1/R0 (that gives you the fraction, obvs). So if R0=3 it's 1-1/3, so two thirds of the population. If r0 =4 it's 1-1/4 so three quarters of the population. Measles has an R number of something like 18, which is why vaccination levels of 95% are needed.

Hearing about possibility of 3rd/4th wave of cases in July/August now as a result of relaxations of lock down and spread of Indian variant. It might not happen but those doing modelling are a bit worried. Not clear of impact on hospitalisations and impact on NHS yet. Problem might be that if case numbers go too high we are then back on the travel red list for many countries and EU in particular. Might hold off making final payment for that overseas holiday in August?

I know there was a load of modelling done around an exit wave, and the size of it varied massively depending on the assumptions in the models. There's a lot of chat that we're going to be nearer to the optimistic models given the effectiveness of the vaccines and take up rates.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/scie ... 27881.html

dpedin wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 12:50 pm

Biffer wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 11:57 am

dpedin wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 11:14 am

Hearing about possibility of 3rd/4th wave of cases in July/August now as a result of relaxations of lock down and spread of Indian variant. It might not happen but those doing modelling are a bit worried. Not clear of impact on hospitalisations and impact on NHS yet. Problem might be that if case numbers go too high we are then back on the travel red list for many countries and EU in particular. Might hold off making final payment for that overseas holiday in August?

I know there was a load of modelling done around an exit wave, and the size of it varied massively depending on the assumptions in the models. There's a lot of chat that we're going to be nearer to the optimistic models given the effectiveness of the vaccines and take up rates.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/scie ... 27881.html

Hopefully this proves correct, however the impact of the new variant might be the thing that screws things up? Higher transmission rate of new variant might increase number of cases significantly and even though they will be in the 50's or younger there will be an inevitable % who will require hospitalisation, etc.It really has come at just the wrong time and might screw the loosening of the lock down and holidays for a short while? Yet again the Blonde Bumblecunt made a decision, this time with India travel, too late and this might be the result. Would have been easier to piss off Modi for a week or two.

dpedin wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 9:09 am Unfortunately MMR rates in UK have fallen to below 95%. If the trend continues then we begin to lose herd immunity and those who for whatever can't take the MMR vaccine become exposed to infection via community transmission through no fault of their own.

Lemoentjie wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 2:29 pm

dpedin wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 9:09 am Unfortunately MMR rates in UK have fallen to below 95%. If the trend continues then we begin to lose herd immunity and those who for whatever can't take the MMR vaccine become exposed to infection via community transmission through no fault of their own.

Why are MMR rates in the UK falling?

Biffer wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 2:37 pm

Lemoentjie wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 2:29 pm

dpedin wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 9:09 am Unfortunately MMR rates in UK have fallen to below 95%. If the trend continues then we begin to lose herd immunity and those who for whatever can't take the MMR vaccine become exposed to infection via community transmission through no fault of their own.

Why are MMR rates in the UK falling?

Arseholes.

sockwithaticket wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 4:21 pm An awful lot of people seem to need to experience negative consequences to learn a lesson, they don't accept someone else's experience or expertise as being sufficient reason to do/not do something.

Saint wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 4:58 pm So Heathrow are temporarily setting up T3 as a Red list arrivals terminal, before moving it to T4 later on. They're expecting to sustain that situation for "some time". No word yet on whether the Border Force will be able to supply enough immigration officers to staff this, but it's at least a start

fishfoodie wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 6:17 pm

Saint wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 4:58 pm So Heathrow are temporarily setting up T3 as a Red list arrivals terminal, before moving it to T4 later on. They're expecting to sustain that situation for "some time". No word yet on whether the Border Force will be able to supply enough immigration officers to staff this, but it's at least a start

If there was a group I would happily accept permanent social distancing from; it would be the Border Force in Heathrow !

Never mind 2 meters, 2 km is too close.

A COVID-19 variant identified in Yorkshire is being investigated by health officials

So far, 49 cases of a new "triple mutant" variation of COVID-19 have been found, mainly in Yorkshire and the Humber. While the variant is being monitored by Public Health England, there is currently no evidence it is more dangerous or more transmissible than the current strains of the novel coronavirus, according to public health officials.

Saint wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 6:51 pm

fishfoodie wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 6:17 pm

Saint wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 4:58 pm So Heathrow are temporarily setting up T3 as a Red list arrivals terminal, before moving it to T4 later on. They're expecting to sustain that situation for "some time". No word yet on whether the Border Force will be able to supply enough immigration officers to staff this, but it's at least a start

If there was a group I would happily accept permanent social distancing from; it would be the Border Force in Heathrow !

Never mind 2 meters, 2 km is too close.

I suspect that if you didn't have Covid before arriving at the T3/T4 immigration hall, you will have it by the time you leave.

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Sat May 22, 2021 4:26 pm

Saint wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 6:51 pm

fishfoodie wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 6:17 pm

If there was a group I would happily accept permanent social distancing from; it would be the Border Force in Heathrow !

Never mind 2 meters, 2 km is too close.

I suspect that if you didn't have Covid before arriving at the T3/T4 immigration hall, you will have it by the time you leave.

So don’t get on the plane in Mexico/India/Dubai/Chile in that case.

Saint wrote: ↑Sun May 23, 2021 7:57 am First evidence in on the effectiveness of Pfizer and AZ against the Indian variant.

The bad news is that a single dose appears to be significantly less effective than against the Kent variant. But the good news is that a second dose appears to be almost exactly as effective against the Indian as the Kent.

So getting that second dose will be increasingly important, and the UK gov will need to keep pushing the population to take that dose even if the background Covid level drops to near zero over the summer

tabascoboy wrote: ↑Sun May 23, 2021 8:09 am

Saint wrote: ↑Sun May 23, 2021 7:57 am First evidence in on the effectiveness of Pfizer and AZ against the Indian variant.

The bad news is that a single dose appears to be significantly less effective than against the Kent variant. But the good news is that a second dose appears to be almost exactly as effective against the Indian as the Kent.

So getting that second dose will be increasingly important, and the UK gov will need to keep pushing the population to take that dose even if the background Covid level drops to near zero over the summer

Week and half until my second dose, don't think I'll be offered it earlier.

TheNatalShark wrote: ↑Sun May 23, 2021 10:03 am Denmark confirms it will begin distributing non-mRNA stock to private doctors, after instruction from Charles Michel and Merkel

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.theloc ... ers/%3famp

In Norway similarly you can opt to get J&J, but not AZ. Macron specifically told them to do this, as Ursula Von Der Leyden was busy being photographed on the phone.

Biffer wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 1:31 pm

dpedin wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 12:50 pm

Biffer wrote: ↑Fri May 21, 2021 11:57 am

I know there was a load of modelling done around an exit wave, and the size of it varied massively depending on the assumptions in the models. There's a lot of chat that we're going to be nearer to the optimistic models given the effectiveness of the vaccines and take up rates.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/scie ... 27881.html

Hopefully this proves correct, however the impact of the new variant might be the thing that screws things up? Higher transmission rate of new variant might increase number of cases significantly and even though they will be in the 50's or younger there will be an inevitable % who will require hospitalisation, etc.It really has come at just the wrong time and might screw the loosening of the lock down and holidays for a short while? Yet again the Blonde Bumblecunt made a decision, this time with India travel, too late and this might be the result. Would have been easier to piss off Modi for a week or two.

This fella goes through his own model, compares with the Warwick model and explains the effects of variations in different assumptions.

salanya wrote: ↑Sun May 23, 2021 12:53 pm Got the first jab - bloody sore arm now.

Second one isn't till August.

Vaccination centre was like a conveyor belt. Not sure whether I'm more annoyed being treated and moved around like cattle, or whether I'm mostly impressed by the numbers they're managing. Bit of both.

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Sun May 23, 2021 3:51 pm I read today that the breakthrough in mRNA vaccines has led to tests in vaccinations against some cancers, samples are taken from the tumours and a vaccine is tailored for the patient, early signs are promising with some cases resulting in complete recovery where other treatments have failed.

This truly amazing.

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Sun May 23, 2021 3:51 pm I read today that the breakthrough in mRNA vaccines has led to tests in vaccinations against some cancers, samples are taken from the tumours and a vaccine is tailored for the patient, early signs are promising with some cases resulting in complete recovery where other treatments have failed.

This truly amazing.

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Sun May 23, 2021 3:44 pm First actual pint in a pub in 12 months yesterday. Last Sept had a few bottles of Peroni in a restaurant. Then just drinking at home as a couple only.

Went for a long walk, went passed an old scummy pub that has been bought out and “gastro’d” recently. Only about 35% occupancy and was having such fun with wife that we had 2 more drinks and a starter each.

I’ve been ultra-careful, but with 2nd jab next week and plenty of space around our table, I felt good. Got to support local businesses anyway.

Bullet wrote: ↑Sun May 23, 2021 4:04 pm

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Sun May 23, 2021 3:44 pm First actual pint in a pub in 12 months yesterday. Last Sept had a few bottles of Peroni in a restaurant. Then just drinking at home as a couple only.

Went for a long walk, went passed an old scummy pub that has been bought out and “gastro’d” recently. Only about 35% occupancy and was having such fun with wife that we had 2 more drinks and a starter each.

I’ve been ultra-careful, but with 2nd jab next week and plenty of space around our table, I felt good. Got to support local businesses anyway.

Had first drinks inside a pub since about September on Friday afternoon, 2nd jab was over 3 weeks ago and 4 pubs were pretty empty to ease us back in.