NPR

Posted: **Tue Jul 20, 2021 1:02 pm**

Kawazaki wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 12:40 pm My prediction for 1st Test Lions side...

1. Sutherland
2. Owens
3. Furlong
4. Itoje
5. AW Jones
6. Beirne
7. Curry
8. Faletau

9. Murray
10. Biggar
11. Adams
12. Henshaw
13. Harris
14. Williams
15. Hogg

16. George
17. Vunipola
18. Sinckler
19. Lawes
20. H. Watson
21. Davies
22. Daly
23. A. Watson

No Farrell which admittedly is very unlikely. He'd replace A. Watson in this lineup. Just two English starters as well but very much an English bench. Lawes covering lock, the bench is designed to significantly up the tempo. Hogg would be covering flyhalf if Farrell is not in the 23.

Whilst I wouldn't be surprised by most of that lineup, there's two things that jump out. Price has clearly been the form SH of the tour, so not to have him on the bench is a bit odd. Also, Hamish Watson to me is always either in the 15 or not in the 23. Only covers one back row position from the bench, so not the best option to have there unless you go with a 6-2 split.

Posted: **Tue Jul 20, 2021 1:23 pm**

I don't think Gatland will gamble on Biggar's fitness lasting the full 80 with no real 10 cover.

Posted: **Tue Jul 20, 2021 1:50 pm**

Biffer wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 1:02 pm
Kawazaki wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 12:40 pm My prediction for 1st Test Lions side...

1. Sutherland
2. Owens
3. Furlong
4. Itoje
5. AW Jones
6. Beirne
7. Curry
8. Faletau

9. Murray
10. Biggar
11. Adams
12. Henshaw
13. Harris
14. Williams
15. Hogg

16. George
17. Vunipola
18. Sinckler
19. Lawes
20. H. Watson
21. Davies
22. Daly
23. A. Watson

No Farrell which admittedly is very unlikely. He'd replace A. Watson in this lineup. Just two English starters as well but very much an English bench. Lawes covering lock, the bench is designed to significantly up the tempo. Hogg would be covering flyhalf if Farrell is not in the 23.
Whilst I wouldn't be surprised by most of that lineup, there's two things that jump out. Price has clearly been the form SH of the tour, so not to have him on the bench is a bit odd. Also, Hamish Watson to me is always either in the 15 or not in the 23. Only covers one back row position from the bench, so not the best option to have there unless you go with a 6-2 split.

I agree about Price, he'd start if I was picking the team and Murray wouldn't make the bench either. The bench is all about tempo. You could swap Watson for Simmonds on the bench but I don't think Simmonds is quite on the same level. Lawes covers two positions. I also don't think Owens is the best hooker either, George and LCD are some way ahead on form but Gatland will likely go with Owens.

Big ask for AWJ to last 80 minutes though.

Posted: **Tue Jul 20, 2021 2:51 pm**

I wonder if it is coincidence that the same propping combos have started together. 3 games for Sutherland and Furlong (one with each hooker) and 2 for Jones and Sinckler. Might be a sign for the test team... but maybe not!

Posted: **Tue Jul 20, 2021 3:14 pm**

This is allegedly the team for the first test according to someone who claims insider knowledge.

Posted: **Tue Jul 20, 2021 3:24 pm**

ASMO wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 3:14 pm This is allegedly the team for the first test according to someone who claims insider knowledge.

Wouldn't argue too hard against any of that. I think Henderson should be starting ahead of AWJ though and I will never be a fan of sticking locks in the back row. Let's just hope Lawes doesn't have to defend many blindside darts off a scrum. If this turns out to be the selection, of course.

Posted: **Tue Jul 20, 2021 3:29 pm**

ASMO wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 3:14 pm This is allegedly the team for the first test according to someone who claims insider knowledge.

Trying to take national bias out of the equation for this particular line up, I think Lawes would be very lucky over Beirne, Daly would be lucky because I am not sure he defensively has readjusted to playing 13 and Duhan because any winger will be lucky to get ahead of the others as they have all been good.

Posted: **Tue Jul 20, 2021 3:30 pm**

Looks like a team put together to be a plausible hoax.

The team will have a few left field selections imo, but we'll see

Posted: **Tue Jul 20, 2021 4:29 pm**

ASMO wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 3:14 pm This is allegedly the team for the first test according to someone who claims insider knowledge.

Not sure about Conan in that lineup. I don't think any of the 8s have really stood out but Faletau at least has the benefit of previous experience and he's got a bit of pace.

Posted: **Tue Jul 20, 2021 4:51 pm**

Times are going with that as the team, so there is likely something in it.

Looks decent enough if true.

Edit - They have a 6/2 bench split with Murray and Faz as the backs. Owens, Sutherland, Sinckler, Beirne, Watson, Henderson as the forwards

Posted: **Tue Jul 20, 2021 4:54 pm**

Owens and Farrell on the bench apparently.

Don’t see it to be honest. Again, taking national bias out of it, and although the back 3 is a tight selection, I’m not convinced he would leave out Adams who is scoring so freely and good under the high one.

A few games being played I think

Posted: **Tue Jul 20, 2021 5:08 pm**

Actually, thinking about it, it would be pretty cruel to the players not picked to send out a hoax team sheet

Posted: **Tue Jul 20, 2021 5:48 pm**

There’s a couple of reaches there I think in Lawes, VdM, and Daly. Although it’s obvious he’s been keen to try to play Daly into form.

Posted: **Tue Jul 20, 2021 5:48 pm**

Slick wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 5:08 pm Actually, thinking about it, it would be pretty cruel to the players not picked to send out a hoax team sheet

Players will already have been told I think.

Posted: **Tue Jul 20, 2021 6:01 pm**

Biffer wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 5:48 pm
Slick wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 5:08 pm Actually, thinking about it, it would be pretty cruel to the players not picked to send out a hoax team sheet
Players will already have been told I think.

Definitely. But still a bit cruel to say you’re not picked but we are going to pretend you are

Posted: **Tue Jul 20, 2021 6:15 pm**

Biffer wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 5:48 pm There’s a couple of reaches there I think in Lawes, VdM, and Daly. Although it’s obvious he’s been keen to try to play Daly into form.

I'm not sure any are really reaches of those three.

Lawes - Him and Beirne always looked a toss up. I'd have gone with Beirne, but can see Lawes getting the nod.

Daly - Done well enough on tour so far playing in his best position. Left foot kicking option and Gats likes him.

VdM - Gatland loves the odd back who can get over the gain line and VdM beats players for fun. Think I saw he'd beaten double the number of defenders as any other wing on tour so far.

Posted: **Tue Jul 20, 2021 6:16 pm**

Biffer wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 5:48 pm
Slick wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 5:08 pm Actually, thinking about it, it would be pretty cruel to the players not picked to send out a hoax team sheet
Players will already have been told I think.

Players told this afternoon

Posted: **Tue Jul 20, 2021 8:34 pm**

Margin__Walker wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 6:15 pm
Biffer wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 5:48 pm There’s a couple of reaches there I think in Lawes, VdM, and Daly. Although it’s obvious he’s been keen to try to play Daly into form.
I'm not sure any are really reaches of those three.

Lawes - Him and Beirne always looked a toss up. I'd have gone with Beirne, but can see Lawes getting the nod.

Daly - Done well enough on tour so far playing in his best position. Left foot kicking option and Gats likes him.

VdM - Gatland loves the odd back who can get over the gain line and VdM beats players for fun. Think I saw he'd beaten double the number of defenders as any other wing on tour so far.

I see your point from the POV Gatland likes him but Daly has missed a lot of tackles in the games he has started 13. Made 12 missed 8. Considering 13 is usually the key defensive position in many defences but especially Tandy's I see why many think he is a stretch at 13. His defence has to be better than it has been.

Posted: **Wed Jul 21, 2021 7:46 am**

SaintK wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 6:16 pm
Biffer wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 5:48 pm
Slick wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 5:08 pm Actually, thinking about it, it would be pretty cruel to the players not picked to send out a hoax team sheet
Players will already have been told I think.
Players told this afternoon

Gatland to confirm the line up today rather than tomorrow as planned.

Posted: **Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:05 am**

Team confirmed as per leaked lineup.

Posted: **Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:09 am**

Biffer wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:05 am Team confirmed as per leaked lineup.

Just the bench different I think, with Williams in for Henderson making it 5/3

Posted: **Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:10 am**

Posted: **Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:10 am**

Lions team to face South Africa:

Hogg; Watson, Daly, Henshaw, Van Der Merwe; Biggar, Price; W Jones, Cowan-Dickie, Furlong, Itoje, AW Jones (capt), Lawes, Curry, Conan.

Replacements: Owens, Sutherland, Sinckler, Beirne, H Watson, Murray, Farrell, L Williams.

Posted: **Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:11 am**

Margin__Walker wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:09 am
Biffer wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:05 am Team confirmed as per leaked lineup.
Just the bench different I think, with Williams in for Henderson making it 5/3

So probably Henderson who leaked it...

Posted: **Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:12 am**

Grandpa wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:11 am
Margin__Walker wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:09 am
Biffer wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:05 am Team confirmed as per leaked lineup.
Just the bench different I think, with Williams in for Henderson making it 5/3
So probably Henderson who leaked it...

Ha, case solved. He'll be on a plane home as we speak

Posted: **Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:18 am**

Margin__Walker wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:09 am
Biffer wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:05 am Team confirmed as per leaked lineup.
Just the bench different I think, with Williams in for Henderson making it 5/3

5/3 split more sensible to my mind

Posted: **Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:46 am**

I still would have had Beirne, Harris and Williams in for Lawes, Daly and DVDM. I think Daly might be in for his kicking but I'm worried about his defence. Other things I would have changed are very much 50/50 calls - Watson/Curry, Sutherland/Jones. So I'm not going to whine about them, although I'm gutted for Mish.

Posted: **Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:49 am**

Biffer wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:46 am I still would have had Beirne, Harris and Williams in for Lawes, Daly and DVDM. I think Daly might be in for his kicking but I'm worried about his defence. Other things I would have changed are very much 50/50 calls - Watson/Curry, Sutherland/Jones. So I'm not going to whine about them, although I'm gutted for Mish.

Pretty much word for word what I was thinking.

Edit: In saying that, absolutely over the moon for Hoggy. Please don't get injured before Saturday

Posted: **Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:54 am**

Slick wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:49 am
Biffer wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:46 am I still would have had Beirne, Harris and Williams in for Lawes, Daly and DVDM. I think Daly might be in for his kicking but I'm worried about his defence. Other things I would have changed are very much 50/50 calls - Watson/Curry, Sutherland/Jones. So I'm not going to whine about them, although I'm gutted for Mish.
Pretty much word for word what I was thinking.

Edit: In saying that, absolutely over the moon for Hoggy. Please don't get injured before Saturday

Posted: **Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:02 am**

If you allow a bit of national bias for a second I am thrilled Hogg will get a test cap.

I feel like a player of his quality deserves it even though I know there is no room for sentimentality on tour.

Posted: **Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:06 am**

Biffer wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:46 am I still would have had Beirne, Harris and Williams in for Lawes, Daly and DVDM. I think Daly might be in for his kicking but I'm worried about his defence. Other things I would have changed are very much 50/50 calls - Watson/Curry, Sutherland/Jones. So I'm not going to whine about them, although I'm gutted for Mish.

I don't think Daly's in for his kicking. Daly's in as the only centre who's been making breaks for fun.

Posted: **Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:11 am**

Big D wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:02 am If you allow a bit of national bias for a second I am thrilled Hogg will get a test cap.

I feel like a player of his quality deserves it even though I know there is no room for sentimentality on tour.

In this new world of not looking at a person through their skin colour or sexual preference, etc. why is Nationality still used as a filter?

Posted: **Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:11 am**

JM2K6 wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:06 am
Biffer wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:46 am I still would have had Beirne, Harris and Williams in for Lawes, Daly and DVDM. I think Daly might be in for his kicking but I'm worried about his defence. Other things I would have changed are very much 50/50 calls - Watson/Curry, Sutherland/Jones. So I'm not going to whine about them, although I'm gutted for Mish.
I don't think Daly's in for his kicking. Daly's in as the only centre who's been making breaks for fun.

I think it was a consideration - not the main reason he was picked. I mean I think it gives him an edge in selection over Harris. Worried about his defence, missed 9 of 25 tackles on the tour. So I think you have Harris better in defence, Daly better in attack, in a decision between the two the extra kicking in the backline gives Daly an edge (as I think kicking from hand will be an important part of Gatland's gameplan).

Posted: **Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:11 am**

Biffer wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:46 am I still would have had Beirne, Harris and Williams in for Lawes, Daly and DVDM. I think Daly might be in for his kicking but I'm worried about his defence. Other things I would have changed are very much 50/50 calls - Watson/Curry, Sutherland/Jones. So I'm not going to whine about them, although I'm gutted for Mish.

I think MacBryde and Gatland have copped out a little to be honest. Watson isn't an ideal fit for the bench but it feels like they have though "we can't leave him out completely".

Posted: **Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:28 am**

JM2K6 wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:06 am
Biffer wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:46 am I still would have had Beirne, Harris and Williams in for Lawes, Daly and DVDM. I think Daly might be in for his kicking but I'm worried about his defence. Other things I would have changed are very much 50/50 calls - Watson/Curry, Sutherland/Jones. So I'm not going to whine about them, although I'm gutted for Mish.
I don't think Daly's in for his kicking. Daly's in as the only centre who's been making breaks for fun.

His distribution and link play have been very good. Looks a different player with confidence and a quality coaching environment.

Posted: **Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:31 am**

shaggy wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:11 am
Big D wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:02 am If you allow a bit of national bias for a second I am thrilled Hogg will get a test cap.

I feel like a player of his quality deserves it even though I know there is no room for sentimentality on tour.
In this new world of not looking at a person through their skin colour or sexual preference, etc. why is Nationality still used as a filter?

Because he's Scottish and so is the poster

Posted: **Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:38 am**

SaintK wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:31 am
shaggy wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:11 am
Big D wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:02 am If you allow a bit of national bias for a second I am thrilled Hogg will get a test cap.

I feel like a player of his quality deserves it even though I know there is no room for sentimentality on tour.
In this new world of not looking at a person through their skin colour or sexual preference, etc. why is Nationality still used as a filter?
Because he's Scottish and so is the poster

I thought my first sentence covered that off well

. But hey ho.

Posted: **Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:58 am**

Kawazaki wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:28 am
JM2K6 wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:06 am
Biffer wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 9:46 am I still would have had Beirne, Harris and Williams in for Lawes, Daly and DVDM. I think Daly might be in for his kicking but I'm worried about his defence. Other things I would have changed are very much 50/50 calls - Watson/Curry, Sutherland/Jones. So I'm not going to whine about them, although I'm gutted for Mish.
I don't think Daly's in for his kicking. Daly's in as the only centre who's been making breaks for fun.

His distribution and link play have been very good. Looks a different player with confidence and a quality coaching environment.

Which must come, at least in part, from playing in the position he's spent the majority of his professional career. Even when Eddie stuck him on the wing Wasps still used him regularly at centre.

Doing something he's used to and comfortable with means fewer errors that prey on the mind and diminish performance.

Posted: **Wed Jul 21, 2021 11:02 am**

Big D wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:38 am
SaintK wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:31 am
shaggy wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:11 am

In this new world of not looking at a person through their skin colour or sexual preference, etc. why is Nationality still used as a filter?
Because he's Scottish and so is the poster
I thought my first sentence covered that off well . But hey ho.

Quite!!

Posted: **Wed Jul 21, 2021 11:03 am**

sockwithaticket wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:58 am
Kawazaki wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:28 am
JM2K6 wrote: Wed Jul 21, 2021 10:06 am

I don't think Daly's in for his kicking. Daly's in as the only centre who's been making breaks for fun.

His distribution and link play have been very good. Looks a different player with confidence and a quality coaching environment.
Which must come, at least in part, from playing in the position he's spent the majority of his professional career. Even when Eddie stuck him on the wing Wasps still used him regularly at centre.

Doing something he's used to and comfortable with means fewer errors that prey on the mind and diminish performance.

I won't try to sugar-coat it regards Daly, I was totally wrong about him. I thought he had it all to be a superb fullback before he made the change. Some players just operate better when they don't have time to think and Daly fits into that category.

NPR

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