What's going on in Ukraine?

[Hellraiser]

Brigadier General Serhii Melnyk, commander of the Kharkiv garrison, visiting the front line.

[laurent]

There is a video doing the round of russian torturing a Ukrainian POW.

Don't post and don't watch if you come across it.

[_Os_]

Russia failed in its strategic objectives months back, it failed to take Kyiv, failed to kill the Ukraine government and put in its place Russian stooges, failed taking any major cities (unless you count Mariupol which is now destroyed anyway), underestimated the reaction from US/UK/EU/NATO and world opinion generally (UN votes). The list goes on.

Russia then pivoted and withdrew and pretended their goals were something different entirely. It was all about land corridors, Donbas, and Mariupol. They were hoping for smaller tactical wins to paint over their massive strategic loss and humiliation.

Kherson isn't going to be in Russian hands after this is all over, that's the front to watch through August. Ukraine has been weakening Russia there for months (repeated Ukrainian artillery strikes on the airport which Russia kept restocking only to be hit again, and Ukrainian counter offensives retaking ground). Kherson remains the only real Russia success in the war, a city barely even in the 20 largest in Ukraine, mostly important because it's on the way to Odesa. Ukraine lost it without much fighting at the start because it was the only place Ukrainian forces got caught in the open (the only Ukrainian columns I saw that were destroyed were between Crimea and Kherson at the start). Russia will struggle to keep resupplying Kherson now that Ukraine has plentiful accurate long range missiles, and are using them to destroy Russian rear area logistics hubs forcing them to be relocated outside missile range closer towards Crimea. This recreates the conditions of the early war when Russia attempted a US invasion of Iraq style mad rush using truck convoys to resupply, which failed when Ukraine destroyed thousands of undefended Russian supply trucks using irregulars/special forces/TB2 drones. Ukraine is also destroying bridges inside Kherson itself, making logistics harder for Russian trucks closer to the front too.

Russian strategic defeat and humiliation is locked in, now its attempt at face saving tactical victory is being threatened too. If Ukraine retakes/holds Kherson and Zaporizhia, cutting the land corridor starts looking viable.

[robmatic]

There is a video doing the round of russian torturing a Ukrainian POW.

Don't post and don't watch if you come across it.

I have seen the description and I am avoiding it.

[tabascoboy]

Some confusion over claims and counter-claims about an attack reported by RU on a penal colony in Donets'k oblast holding UA PoWs that killed over 40 and injured many more with a video of the aftermath. RU of course blame UA artillery using HIMARS but it's unclear as to why UA would even consider this a target in the first place and sources who monitor social networks and chats say there was no mention of shelling.

If true the RU are actually ion contravention of Geneva Convention Article 9: "it is forbidden to keep prisoners of war near the war zone."

Report comes from TASS and some believe this is a smoke and mirrors exercise conveniently timed to distract from that video doing the rounds. Possibly another instance where we may never learn the truth.


EDIT - previous attacks on this general location were also reported in May and earlier this month, so possibly old footage presented as new and staged?

[Jockaline]

Russia failed in its strategic objectives months back, it failed to take Kyiv, failed to kill the Ukraine government and put in its place Russian stooges, failed taking any major cities (unless you count Mariupol which is now destroyed anyway), underestimated the reaction from US/UK/EU/NATO and world opinion generally (UN votes). The list goes on.

Russia then pivoted and withdrew and pretended their goals were something different entirely. It was all about land corridors, Donbas, and Mariupol. They were hoping for smaller tactical wins to paint over their massive strategic loss and humiliation.

Kherson isn't going to be in Russian hands after this is all over, that's the front to watch through August. Ukraine has been weakening Russia there for months (repeated Ukrainian artillery strikes on the airport which Russia kept restocking only to be hit again, and Ukrainian counter offensives retaking ground). Kherson remains the only real Russia success in the war, a city barely even in the 20 largest in Ukraine, mostly important because it's on the way to Odesa. Ukraine lost it without much fighting at the start because it was the only place Ukrainian forces got caught in the open (the only Ukrainian columns I saw that were destroyed were between Crimea and Kherson at the start). Russia will struggle to keep resupplying Kherson now that Ukraine has plentiful accurate long range missiles, and are using them to destroy Russian rear area logistics hubs forcing them to be relocated outside missile range closer towards Crimea. This recreates the conditions of the early war when Russia attempted a US invasion of Iraq style mad rush using truck convoys to resupply, which failed when Ukraine destroyed thousands of undefended Russian supply trucks using irregulars/special forces/TB2 drones. Ukraine is also destroying bridges inside Kherson itself, making logistics harder for Russian trucks closer to the front too.

Russian strategic defeat and humiliation is locked in, now its attempt at face saving tactical victory is being threatened too. If Ukraine retakes/holds Kherson and Zaporizhia, cutting the land corridor starts looking viable.

I'd love to see Kherson liberated in Aug, but wonder if a bit of patience might be a better plan to conserve the Ukrainian soldier lives, they've had huge losses. Just keep current pressure up and chip away, make it more and more unsustainable for Russia, while organising partisan activity there.

As someone that know little to nothing I would think not losing more territory (hard to get back), defending their current territory from missiles attacks while getting their economy going and using psyops to move Russian troops and supplies around, might be a better use of resources. Is time not on their side, as I assume winter would favour them, Russian demoralised troops won't want to sit in trenches with inappropriate clothing again. Sanctions will bite harder and harder, more better weapons coming on stream for UK, more troops trained. Or is the fear that outside support will wane, including a non-democrats anti war US congress.

[_Os_]

I'd love to see Kherson liberated in Aug, but wonder if a bit of patience might be a better plan to conserve the Ukrainian soldier lives, they've had huge losses. Just keep current pressure up and chip away, make it more and more unsustainable for Russia, while organising partisan activity there.

As someone that know little to nothing I would think not losing more territory (hard to get back), defending their current territory from missiles attacks while getting their economy going and using psyops to move Russian troops and supplies around, might be a better use of resources. Is time not on their side, as I assume winter would favour them, Russian demoralised troops won't want to sit in trenches with inappropriate clothing again. Sanctions will bite harder and harder, more better weapons coming on stream for UK, more troops trained. Or is the fear that outside support will wane, including a non-democrats anti war US congress.

Seems to me that's what they're doing for awhile and it's starting to get more visible results now. So Russia forced out of Kherson in August/September? If they can't keep their resupply up they can't keep it. Russia then needs to decide if it wants it's troops hunkered and undersupplied on the western side of the Dnipro river, and it becomes a similar situation to before they pulled out from western and eastern Kyiv.

[Jock42]

Anyone have any info on how much contract Russian soldiers are paid?

[laurent]

Anyone have any info on how much contract Russian soldiers are paid?

Looking for a side job ?

[tabascoboy]

Anyone have any info on how much contract Russian soldiers are paid?

By Russian standards it appears to very good remuneration, with benefits to widow and family if killed while on contract ( buy that new Lada to replace your son!). Don't have the exact figures - it might vary according to location. Of course what is promised is not necessarily what's actually paid and plenty of reported complaints about well overdue pay and unpaid benefits ( a result of not being very much concerned about the fate of lower ranks and verifying identity of those KIA).

[Jockaline]

I'd love to see Kherson liberated in Aug, but wonder if a bit of patience might be a better plan to conserve the Ukrainian soldier lives, they've had huge losses. Just keep current pressure up and chip away, make it more and more unsustainable for Russia, while organising partisan activity there.

As someone that know little to nothing I would think not losing more territory (hard to get back), defending their current territory from missiles attacks while getting their economy going and using psyops to move Russian troops and supplies around, might be a better use of resources. Is time not on their side, as I assume winter would favour them, Russian demoralised troops won't want to sit in trenches with inappropriate clothing again. Sanctions will bite harder and harder, more better weapons coming on stream for UK, more troops trained. Or is the fear that outside support will wane, including a non-democrats anti war US congress.

Seems to me that's what they're doing for awhile and it's starting to get more visible results now. So Russia forced out of Kherson in August/September? If they can't keep their resupply up they can't keep it. Russia then needs to decide if it wants it's troops hunkered and undersupplied on the western side of the Dnipro river, and it becomes a similar situation to before they pulled out from western and eastern Kyiv.

It does seem the tide as turned recently, and it's a matter of when not if, thankfully.

[Jock42]

Anyone have any info on how much contract Russian soldiers are paid?

By Russian standards it appears to very good remuneration, with benefits to widow and family if killed while on contract ( buy that new Lada to replace your son!). Don't have the exact figures - it might vary according to location. Of course what is promised is not necessarily what's actually paid and plenty of reported complaints about well overdue pay and unpaid benefits ( a result of not being very much concerned about the fate of lower ranks and verifying identity of those KIA).

Yeah seeing lots about bonuses but not seen much on what is required and the amount too.

Laurent

[tabascoboy]

Article from Newsweek, back in May

The Russian military is reportedly offering soldiers large amounts of money to sign on for short-term military contracts as the nation struggles to recruit troops in its ongoing war in Ukraine.

In Tula, a city located south of Moscow, soldiers who opt for three-month military contracts are now being offered over 170,000 rubles ($2,900) per month. That accounts for roughly four times the average local salary, according to a Monday report by the Moscow Times. Similarly, a military official in the North Caucasus republic of Chechnya recently was offered a first-month salary of 300,000 rubles ($5,200) during a recruitment attempt, according to the news outlet.

Under normal circumstances, contract soldiers are usually signed on for three years of service and are paid an average of about 64,900 rubes, or just $1,100 per month, according to the Washington Post. The latest pay increases come at a time when the Russian military is struggling to recruit troops and maintain morale amid heavy losses in Ukraine.

[_Os_]

I'd love to see Kherson liberated in Aug, but wonder if a bit of patience might be a better plan to conserve the Ukrainian soldier lives, they've had huge losses. Just keep current pressure up and chip away, make it more and more unsustainable for Russia, while organising partisan activity there.

As someone that know little to nothing I would think not losing more territory (hard to get back), defending their current territory from missiles attacks while getting their economy going and using psyops to move Russian troops and supplies around, might be a better use of resources. Is time not on their side, as I assume winter would favour them, Russian demoralised troops won't want to sit in trenches with inappropriate clothing again. Sanctions will bite harder and harder, more better weapons coming on stream for UK, more troops trained. Or is the fear that outside support will wane, including a non-democrats anti war US congress.

Seems to me that's what they're doing for awhile and it's starting to get more visible results now. So Russia forced out of Kherson in August/September? If they can't keep their resupply up they can't keep it. Russia then needs to decide if it wants it's troops hunkered and undersupplied on the western side of the Dnipro river, and it becomes a similar situation to before they pulled out from western and eastern Kyiv.

It does seem the tide as turned recently, and it's a matter of when not if, thankfully.

This was an interesting video:



This is either a long distance Russian supply convoy (Ukrainian missiles have forced back the Russian rear area and this is the result) which is unlikely given the logistics of going from Izyum area to Melitopol. Or more likely it's Russia shifting forces from the Donbas front to the western front of Kherson and Zaporizhia. Looks a bit like deckchairs on the Titanic, Ukraine 93rd Mech was never destroyed early on and gave Russian forces a horrible mauling around Izyum. If the IFF markings tell the story those aren't fresh troops.

Also worth noting the Soviet flag on the first truck, any analysis that doesn't include Russian supporters of this war justifying it to themselves as an explicit imperial war of conquest isn't serious (Jordan Peterson up the thread).

[Blake]

I'd love to see Kherson liberated in Aug, but wonder if a bit of patience might be a better plan to conserve the Ukrainian soldier lives, they've had huge losses. Just keep current pressure up and chip away, make it more and more unsustainable for Russia, while organising partisan activity there.

As someone that know little to nothing I would think not losing more territory (hard to get back), defending their current territory from missiles attacks while getting their economy going and using psyops to move Russian troops and supplies around, might be a better use of resources. Is time not on their side, as I assume winter would favour them, Russian demoralised troops won't want to sit in trenches with inappropriate clothing again. Sanctions will bite harder and harder, more better weapons coming on stream for UK, more troops trained. Or is the fear that outside support will wane, including a non-democrats anti war US congress.

It's a tough call, but generally, if you have the opportunity to take the initiative it should be taken.
Ukraine will never again get an opportunity to retake Crimea. It is more strategically valuable than the Donbas, which will likely end up as some kind of DMZ wasteland once all this is over, but I the UAF can make a successful run on Crimea and retake it, it will send a message. Kherson is the first step towards that bloody objective.

Waiting might allow Ukraine to chip away and bleed Russia, but they will also be bleeding in the Donbas. As hard strike on Kherson, if successful, could case a rapid retreat and remove the land bridge "objective" from the board further weakening Putin with yet another failure, while also reducing the war by months AND putting Crimea in play (pulling resources from the East to bolster there).

[Slick]

I'd love to see Kherson liberated in Aug, but wonder if a bit of patience might be a better plan to conserve the Ukrainian soldier lives, they've had huge losses. Just keep current pressure up and chip away, make it more and more unsustainable for Russia, while organising partisan activity there.

As someone that know little to nothing I would think not losing more territory (hard to get back), defending their current territory from missiles attacks while getting their economy going and using psyops to move Russian troops and supplies around, might be a better use of resources. Is time not on their side, as I assume winter would favour them, Russian demoralised troops won't want to sit in trenches with inappropriate clothing again. Sanctions will bite harder and harder, more better weapons coming on stream for UK, more troops trained. Or is the fear that outside support will wane, including a non-democrats anti war US congress.

It's a tough call, but generally, if you have the opportunity to take the initiative it should be taken.
Ukraine will never again get an opportunity to retake Crimea. It is more strategically valuable than the Donbas, which will likely end up as some kind of DMZ wasteland once all this is over, but I the UAF can make a successful run on Crimea and retake it, it will send a message. Kherson is the first step towards that bloody objective.

Waiting might allow Ukraine to chip away and bleed Russia, but they will also be bleeding in the Donbas. As hard strike on Kherson, if successful, could case a rapid retreat and remove the land bridge "objective" from the board further weakening Putin with yet another failure, while also reducing the war by months AND putting Crimea in play (pulling resources from the East to bolster there).

Surely they will never get Crimea back? Just can't imagine that happing under any circumstances

[Blake]

Surely they will never get Crimea back? Just can't imagine that happing under any circumstances

Probably not, but they will never get a better opportunity than now to try.

Once the dust settles, and a peace agreement is finalised, it will be over. Russia will never put Crimea or Donbas on the table. Ukraine will have to take them back now if they want them back...and Zelenskyy has said that they do.

[Paddington Bear]

I'd love to see Kherson liberated in Aug, but wonder if a bit of patience might be a better plan to conserve the Ukrainian soldier lives, they've had huge losses. Just keep current pressure up and chip away, make it more and more unsustainable for Russia, while organising partisan activity there.

As someone that know little to nothing I would think not losing more territory (hard to get back), defending their current territory from missiles attacks while getting their economy going and using psyops to move Russian troops and supplies around, might be a better use of resources. Is time not on their side, as I assume winter would favour them, Russian demoralised troops won't want to sit in trenches with inappropriate clothing again. Sanctions will bite harder and harder, more better weapons coming on stream for UK, more troops trained. Or is the fear that outside support will wane, including a non-democrats anti war US congress.

It's a tough call, but generally, if you have the opportunity to take the initiative it should be taken.
Ukraine will never again get an opportunity to retake Crimea. It is more strategically valuable than the Donbas, which will likely end up as some kind of DMZ wasteland once all this is over, but I the UAF can make a successful run on Crimea and retake it, it will send a message. Kherson is the first step towards that bloody objective.

Waiting might allow Ukraine to chip away and bleed Russia, but they will also be bleeding in the Donbas. As hard strike on Kherson, if successful, could case a rapid retreat and remove the land bridge "objective" from the board further weakening Putin with yet another failure, while also reducing the war by months AND putting Crimea in play (pulling resources from the East to bolster there).

Surely they will never get Crimea back? Just can't imagine that happing under any circumstances

As shit as it sounds I hope they don't try as no Russian leader is going to give up Sevastopol without throwing the kitchen sink at it. All bets would be off.

[Blake]

As shit as it sounds I hope they don't try as no Russian leader is going to give up Sevastopol without throwing the kitchen sink at it. All bets would be off.

Yep; I'm very torn about it as well. Sevastopol will have to be bought with blood and probably a lot of it.
But I really want Ukraine to get Crimea back. Just from a world order point of view, Russia cannot get away with this bullshit which started in 2014.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

Sevastopol is useless to Russia if it's in range of Ukrainian missiles.

[laurent]

They are being decommissioned with the Griffon and Serval Vehicle in production and active service

If they get properly refurbed there are a lot of these that can be gifted. (unlike the CAESAR)

Very useful and mobile

[Jockaline]

This was an interesting video:



This is either a long distance Russian supply convoy (Ukrainian missiles have forced back the Russian rear area and this is the result) which is unlikely given the logistics of going from Izyum area to Melitopol. Or more likely it's Russia shifting forces from the Donbas front to the western front of Kherson and Zaporizhia. Looks a bit like deckchairs on the Titanic, Ukraine 93rd Mech was never destroyed early on and gave Russian forces a horrible mauling around Izyum. If the IFF markings tell the story those aren't fresh troops.

Also worth noting the Soviet flag on the first truck, any analysis that doesn't include Russian supporters of this war justifying it to themselves as an explicit imperial war of conquest isn't serious (Jordan Peterson up the thread).
[/quote]

Hopefully on fire soon.

[Slick]

It's a tough call, but generally, if you have the opportunity to take the initiative it should be taken.
Ukraine will never again get an opportunity to retake Crimea. It is more strategically valuable than the Donbas, which will likely end up as some kind of DMZ wasteland once all this is over, but I the UAF can make a successful run on Crimea and retake it, it will send a message. Kherson is the first step towards that bloody objective.

Waiting might allow Ukraine to chip away and bleed Russia, but they will also be bleeding in the Donbas. As hard strike on Kherson, if successful, could case a rapid retreat and remove the land bridge "objective" from the board further weakening Putin with yet another failure, while also reducing the war by months AND putting Crimea in play (pulling resources from the East to bolster there).

Surely they will never get Crimea back? Just can't imagine that happing under any circumstances

As shit as it sounds I hope they don't try as no Russian leader is going to give up Sevastopol without throwing the kitchen sink at it. All bets would be off.

Yeah, didn’t want to say the N word but you’d have to assume it would be on the table

[Hellraiser]

[yermum]

A vehicle carrying 1000kg + of HE warheads with a little fire extinguisher strapped to the side.

that + the James bond theme must mean this is a UK one.

[Hellraiser]

A vehicle carrying 1000kg + of HE warheads with a little fire extinguisher strapped to the side.

that + the James bond theme must mean this is a UK one.

Three German MARS IIs are in Ukraine too but no footage yet.

[petej]

Surely they will never get Crimea back? Just can't imagine that happing under any circumstances

As shit as it sounds I hope they don't try as no Russian leader is going to give up Sevastopol without throwing the kitchen sink at it. All bets would be off.

Yeah, didn’t want to say the N word but you’d have to assume it would be on the table

Pretty convinced they won't. Russia and very complex weapons systems don't mix well. Would it even work if they did? At the point your nuclear weapons don't work what then.

[Hellraiser]

[fishfoodie]

As shit as it sounds I hope they don't try as no Russian leader is going to give up Sevastopol without throwing the kitchen sink at it. All bets would be off.

Yeah, didn’t want to say the N word but you’d have to assume it would be on the table

Pretty convinced they won't. Russia and very complex weapons systems don't mix well. Would it even work if they did? At the point your nuclear weapons don't work what then.

They can get a handful of tactical weapons working no problem; it's the reliability of the ICBMs, & SLBMs, they're are the ones that probably won't work.

[Hellraiser]

As shit as it sounds I hope they don't try as no Russian leader is going to give up Sevastopol without throwing the kitchen sink at it. All bets would be off.

Yeah, didn’t want to say the N word but you’d have to assume it would be on the table

Pretty convinced they won't. Russia and very complex weapons systems don't mix well. Would it even work if they did? At the point your nuclear weapons don't work what then.

Most of Russia's nukes are unusable and those that "technically" are usable are potentially duds or disasters waiting to happen.

Telenko had a good thread on the topic at the end of April.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

About the alleged shelling by UA that killed their own POWs earlier, hope this is authenticated - strangely there is no claim of Russian casualties, why/how could that be...?

For some extra context, as we can understand from the call and the translation, an explosive device was set up at the industrial wing of the camp where a number of prisoners was moved two days prior. Shortly before the explosive device was set off, a MLRS Grad complex placed...nearby fired three 10-missile “packets” to cover up the noise from the explosion.

EDIT: and one more thing

[petej]

Yeah, didn’t want to say the N word but you’d have to assume it would be on the table

Pretty convinced they won't. Russia and very complex weapons systems don't mix well. Would it even work if they did? At the point your nuclear weapons don't work what then.

Most of Russia's nukes are unusable and those that "technically" are usable are potentially duds or disasters waiting to happen.

Telenko had a good thread on the topic at the end of april

I saw that thread at the time. The budget spent, the complexity of the systems and the corruption does lead me to think that they won't work as they should. The Russian airforce being poor after hearing about how their latest aircraft were comparable to 5th gen aircraft and much better than western 4th gen aircraft was interesting.

[Paddington Bear]

‘Don’t worry about the nukes, they probably wouldn’t work anyway’ is a hell of a gamble, though I suppose if you’re wrong none of us would be around to point it out anyway

[tabascoboy]

Wonder if the first part of this is true, and the rumours of RU forces buying inflatables too, which is kind of funny; but really wish there was some way to take those missile carriers out

[Hellraiser]