So, coronavirus...

[Bimbowomxn]

Reported deaths for the first 4 days of last week 212

Reported deaths for the first 4 days of this week 271

A week on week comparison for all 4 days (eg Monday 3rd & Monday 10th) shows a rise on all 4 days consecutively.

This is the first week since peak that the weekly count has gone up. So far a rather significant 27% rise.

Little wonder the Govt has mid week sought to revise the numbers downwards.

But 200:plus people didn’t die on those 4 days IH, again using this logic 4,000 people came back to life.

Why can’t you see this ?

[MrMojo]

I believe he has posted the official stats to demonstrate that many people died. Do you have official data to disprove it?

Was that including the people what had tested positive for Covid months ago and now died of something else?

[MrMojo]

If you're going to call the PHE numbers into question then you HAVE to question the Welsh and Scottish numbers. They've been working to the 28 day standard throughout, so you would expect the difference to the ONS numbers to largely be there.

What this whole thing really exposes is

1 - We're actually really crap as a country in collating and reporting these stats rapidly, and whatever your views on devolution, there needs to be a UK-wide standard for what is reported - even if collation and reporting remains independent
2 - We've been far more open at admitting that fact. We've publically reported a bunch of different stats that contradict each other, with even explained why they do.

The real coverup would have been not to publish the differing stats

I think it also shows how difficult it is to determine The cause of why somebody has died at the best of times. We are generally talking about old, frail people with multiple health issues. Saying whether or not Covid has killed them or not is not straightforward.

[Insane_Homer]

But 200:plus people didn’t die on those 4 days IH, again using this logic 4,000 people came back to life.

Why can’t you see this ?

The like for like reporting of official Govt released numbers of the deaths for those 4 days says 200 people last week, this weeks it's 270. That's a significant comparative rise,

How do you not see that? (Don't bother, it's a rhetorical question).

[Bimbowomxn]

But 200:plus people didn’t die on those 4 days IH, again using this logic 4,000 people came back to life.

Why can’t you see this ?

The like for like reporting of official Govt released numbers of the deaths for those 4 days says 200 people last week, this weeks it's 270. That's a significant comparative rise,

How do you not see that? (Don't bother, it's a rhetorical question).

It’s not like for like though, it’s records of deaths over months previously not on the days of reporting. This by it’s very nature cannot be like for like.

I guarantee that the two 4 day periods you’ve cherry picked don’t include 200 plus deaths from the actual days of reporting.

[Insane_Homer]

But 200:plus people didn’t die on those 4 days IH, again using this logic 4,000 people came back to life.

Why can’t you see this ?

The like for like reporting of official Govt released numbers of the deaths for those 4 days says 200 people last week, this weeks it's 270. That's a significant comparative rise,

How do you not see that? (Don't bother, it's a rhetorical question).

It’s not like for like though, it’s records of deaths over months previously not on the days of reporting. This by it’s very nature cannot be like for like.

I guarantee that the two 4 day periods you’ve cherry picked don’t include 200 plus deaths from the actual days of reporting.

I've cherry picked no numbers, I've linked, at least twice, to the official Government published numbers.

I've not said that's the numbers represent people actually dying on that day despite your very desperate attempts to make it seem that way in a pathetic attempt to obfuscate.

The reported deaths, despite any lag between when they died and the reporting of the death, are going up.

[dpedin]

The focus on numbers of deaths is important. However the potential bigger issue for the working age population is not dying but will be the longer term impact of contracting the virus. There is growing evidence base that anything up to 10% of those who get the virus have health issues lasting months and potential after effects or requirement for care for many many months. There is research underway but there is little awareness of this, most folk think its ok it wont kill me. However Tom Wood, Northampton flanker is currently off following a pulmonary embolism as a result of covid19 and is on blood thinners. A fit healthy male with excellent healthcare provision. So c65,000 excess deaths and up to 10% of those who contract the virus suffering longer term effects is the real measure of harm.

[Bimbowomxn]

The like for like reporting of official Govt released numbers of the deaths for those 4 days says 200 people last week, this weeks it's 270. That's a significant comparative rise,

How do you not see that? (Don't bother, it's a rhetorical question).

It’s not like for like though, it’s records of deaths over months previously not on the days of reporting. This by it’s very nature cannot be like for like.

I guarantee that the two 4 day periods you’ve cherry picked don’t include 200 plus deaths from the actual days of reporting.

I've cherry picked no numbers, I've linked, at least twice, to the official Government published numbers.

I've not said that's the numbers represent people actually dying on that day despite your very desperate attempts to make it seem that way in a pathetic attempt to obfuscate.

The reported deaths, despite any lag between when they died and the reporting of the death, are going up.

I’ll apply this strange logic then and confirm that the virus has disappeared as the number of deaths fell by over 4,000.

You cannot “despite” the actual dates of the deaths of you want the statistics to mean anything.

You’re not being serious though are you?

[Bimbowomxn]

The focus on numbers of deaths is important. However the potential bigger issue for the working age population is not dying but will be the longer term impact of contracting the virus. There is growing evidence base that anything up to 10% of those who get the virus have health issues lasting months and potential after effects or requirement for care for many many months. There is research underway but there is little awareness of this, most folk think its ok it wont kill me. However Tom Wood, Northampton flanker is currently off following a pulmonary embolism as a result of covid19 and is on blood thinners. A fit healthy male with excellent healthcare provision. So c65,000 excess deaths and up to 10% of those who contract the virus suffering longer term effects is the real measure of harm.

There’s no such evidence regarding 10% of infections. I’m sorry you were ill but stop extrapolating that as an actual issue for the whole country.

[Insane_Homer]

N=1 example.

Tv’s Kate Garraway says husband Derek Draper has emerged from his Covid-19 coma after 98 days in hospital.

He's still pretty fucked... 'We don't know how much he can see or hear, but he knows the programme is on.'

Had he instead died, under the new 28-day test result Death reporting calculations, it would not have been counted as a Covid death

[Enzedder]

[Raggs]

N=1 example.

Tv’s Kate Garraway says husband Derek Draper has emerged from his Covid-19 coma after 98 days in hospital.

He's still pretty fucked... 'We don't know how much he can see or hear, but he knows the programme is on.'

Had he instead died, under the new 28-day test result Death reporting calculations, it would not have been counted as a Covid death

28 days brings England in line with the rest of the UK. What would be good to know would be if it brings us in line with the EU, or at least major EU countries, otherwise we're all just arguing apples, lemons and oranges.

I do wonder if it's so black and white. 27 days and hit by a bus = covid? 90 days due to being in a coma and ventilator due to covid = not covid?

Just because he was in a coma for 98 days, did they only test him once? When was his last covid test? If they keep testing periodically for covid (not a bad idea when you're treating someone), then he would have had a covid positive result within the 28 days.

I can see the sense of bringing England into line with the rest of the UK. I would like to know what other countries are doing, and more details on if someone is repeatedly tested during a longer infection, or equally, still included if hit by a bus within 28 days.

[Sandstorm]

The focus on numbers of deaths is important. However the potential bigger issue for the working age population is not dying but will be the longer term impact of contracting the virus. There is growing evidence base that anything up to 10% of those who get the virus have health issues lasting months and potential after effects or requirement for care for many many months. There is research underway but there is little awareness of this, most folk think its ok it wont kill me. However Tom Wood, Northampton flanker is currently off following a pulmonary embolism as a result of covid19 and is on blood thinners. A fit healthy male with excellent healthcare provision. So c65,000 excess deaths and up to 10% of those who contract the virus suffering longer term effects is the real measure of harm.

There are examples of pro athletes in USA who had mild cases of Covid19 and recovered quickly. But now they have heart damage and cannot perform anywhere near their previous levels. Career. Over.

[Bimbowomxn]

The focus on numbers of deaths is important. However the potential bigger issue for the working age population is not dying but will be the longer term impact of contracting the virus. There is growing evidence base that anything up to 10% of those who get the virus have health issues lasting months and potential after effects or requirement for care for many many months. There is research underway but there is little awareness of this, most folk think its ok it wont kill me. However Tom Wood, Northampton flanker is currently off following a pulmonary embolism as a result of covid19 and is on blood thinners. A fit healthy male with excellent healthcare provision. So c65,000 excess deaths and up to 10% of those who contract the virus suffering longer term effects is the real measure of harm.

There are examples of pro athletes in USA who had mild cases of Covid19 and recovered quickly. But now they have heart damage and cannot perform anywhere near their previous levels. Career. Over.

https://www.espn.co.uk/college-football ... -viability


Strange I’m reading articles that say 3-6 months and there’s full recovery. No one of course knows what the “performance” is yet either.

[Saint]

N=1 example.

Tv’s Kate Garraway says husband Derek Draper has emerged from his Covid-19 coma after 98 days in hospital.

He's still pretty fucked... 'We don't know how much he can see or hear, but he knows the programme is on.'

Had he instead died, under the new 28-day test result Death reporting calculations, it would not have been counted as a Covid death

He wouldn't be counted by the WHO measure either (60 days)

He also wouldn't have been counted if he lived in Wales, Scotland or NI

There's also apparently at least one death in the statistics where someone had tested positive then been hit by a bus.

[Saint]

The focus on numbers of deaths is important. However the potential bigger issue for the working age population is not dying but will be the longer term impact of contracting the virus. There is growing evidence base that anything up to 10% of those who get the virus have health issues lasting months and potential after effects or requirement for care for many many months. There is research underway but there is little awareness of this, most folk think its ok it wont kill me. However Tom Wood, Northampton flanker is currently off following a pulmonary embolism as a result of covid19 and is on blood thinners. A fit healthy male with excellent healthcare provision. So c65,000 excess deaths and up to 10% of those who contract the virus suffering longer term effects is the real measure of harm.

Where did all this nonsense about Tom Wood having had COVID come from? he had a pulmonary embolism in his leg that travelled up to his lungs. Not COVID

[Sandstorm]

N=1 example.

Tv’s Kate Garraway says husband Derek Draper has emerged from his Covid-19 coma after 98 days in hospital.

He's still pretty fucked... 'We don't know how much he can see or hear, but he knows the programme is on.'

Had he instead died, under the new 28-day test result Death reporting calculations, it would not have been counted as a Covid death

He wouldn't be counted by the WHO measure either (60 days)

He also wouldn't have been counted if he lived in Wales, Scotland or NI

There's also apparently at least one death in the statistics where someone had tested positive then been hit by a bus.

Ban buses.

[Insane_Homer]

apparently at least one death in the statistics where someone had tested positive then been hit by a bus.

[Bimbo mode on]
Was probably travelling to/from hospital
[Bimbo mode off]

[Saint]

apparently at least one death in the statistics where someone had tested positive then been hit by a bus.

[Bimbo mode on]
Was probably travelling to/from hospital
[Bimbo mode off]

[SaintK]

The focus on numbers of deaths is important. However the potential bigger issue for the working age population is not dying but will be the longer term impact of contracting the virus. There is growing evidence base that anything up to 10% of those who get the virus have health issues lasting months and potential after effects or requirement for care for many many months. There is research underway but there is little awareness of this, most folk think its ok it wont kill me. However Tom Wood, Northampton flanker is currently off following a pulmonary embolism as a result of covid19 and is on blood thinners. A fit healthy male with excellent healthcare provision. So c65,000 excess deaths and up to 10% of those who contract the virus suffering longer term effects is the real measure of harm.

Where did all this nonsense about Tom Wood having had COVID come from? he had a pulmonary embolism in his leg that travelled up to his lungs. Not COVID

Thankyou. Thought I'd missed something along the way!

[SaintK]

Shapps proving he's as incompetent as the rest of them. From the top down!!!

Andrew Neil
@afneil
·
11h
Transport minister Shapps has just deleted his tweet to me. I suspect he thought 4am Saturday was early Sunday morning. It’s not. It’s 4am Saturday.
Andrew Neil

When it came via a Grant Shapps interview on Sky News, he said it would be from Sunday. We promptly booked our channel tunnel for Saturday afternoon, but now we’ve woken up today to see it’s been changed to Saturday.

https://twitter.com/i/status/1294189989409030144

[Bimbowomxn]

What’s appealing about the quarantine decision on France is the delay in application brings a rush of people together through ports etc, this causes a larger issue of spread and of course these travellers will not be distancing.


It makes little sense.


As does Frances reciprocal actions.


All governments are rubbish.

[SaintK]

All governments are rubbish.

Not all as incompetent as the useless shower governing us. What's the fucking point if there are no proper follow ups? The "world beating" track and trace system is working well.

My name is Tim and I recently returned from Belgium. There seems to be a widespread belief that the UK government has some type of control over those returning from the countries on the list. This is untrue.
I do not intend to boast about the fact that I have not complied to ‘the rules’ but that is the truth.
The form that you fill out asks for your permission to phone or text you - your permission! If they do phone you they ask you a few questions, “Are you at home?”, I was not but answered “Yes, I am”. That is it.
If this is compared to other nations, for instance, Singapore, where you are locked inside your room, or former CIS nations where you have to download an app and share your location, the UK is a joke.
My neighbour who returned from a nation ‘on the list’ arrived to Stansted Airport where they did not ask him to show the form. He returned to work and told his boss that he had been in Scotland (despite his tan).

[Bimbowomxn]

I’m not surprised some people want a “lock people up” solution, I’d rather not grant that power to any UK government. This isn’t good joined up thinking.


Singapore and it’s legal controls isn’t a good example.


Also those breaking the law are at fault for the law breaking rather than The government.

The government are responsible for the sheer lack of honesty in their messages.

[Blackmac]

N=1 example.

Tv’s Kate Garraway says husband Derek Draper has emerged from his Covid-19 coma after 98 days in hospital.

He's still pretty fucked... 'We don't know how much he can see or hear, but he knows the programme is on.'

Had he instead died, under the new 28-day test result Death reporting calculations, it would not have been counted as a Covid death

He wouldn't be counted by the WHO measure either (60 days)

He also wouldn't have been counted if he lived in Wales, Scotland or NI

There's also apparently at least one death in the statistics where someone had tested positive then been hit by a bus.

If a fit and healthy person contracts Covid and dies from Covid after the 28 day period, then that is still counted as a Covid death in Scotland. It is only if the death is related to other health issues that it is discounted after 28 days. It seems an extremely sensible process.

[Insane_Homer]

Bimbo's account has been highjacked!

This anti Boris Government rhetoric is completely out of character.

[Saint]

N=1 example.

Tv’s Kate Garraway says husband Derek Draper has emerged from his Covid-19 coma after 98 days in hospital.

He's still pretty fucked... 'We don't know how much he can see or hear, but he knows the programme is on.'

Had he instead died, under the new 28-day test result Death reporting calculations, it would not have been counted as a Covid death

He wouldn't be counted by the WHO measure either (60 days)

He also wouldn't have been counted if he lived in Wales, Scotland or NI

There's also apparently at least one death in the statistics where someone had tested positive then been hit by a bus.

If a fit and healthy person contracts Covid and dies from Covid after the 28 day period, then that is still counted as a Covid death in Scotland. It is only if the death is related to other health issues that it is discounted after 28 days. It seems an extremely sensible process.

Do you have a source for that? The Scottish Gov website, and PHS, both say otherwise

[Biffer]

He wouldn't be counted by the WHO measure either (60 days)

He also wouldn't have been counted if he lived in Wales, Scotland or NI

There's also apparently at least one death in the statistics where someone had tested positive then been hit by a bus.

If a fit and healthy person contracts Covid and dies from Covid after the 28 day period, then that is still counted as a Covid death in Scotland. It is only if the death is related to other health issues that it is discounted after 28 days. It seems an extremely sensible process.

Do you have a source for that? The Scottish Gov website, and PHS, both say otherwise

The weekly NRS figures count anyone where Covid is mentioned on the death certificate. The Scottish government refer to the NRS numbers as more comprehensive every week when they're announced, so those are probably the numbers to trust.

[Saint]

If a fit and healthy person contracts Covid and dies from Covid after the 28 day period, then that is still counted as a Covid death in Scotland. It is only if the death is related to other health issues that it is discounted after 28 days. It seems an extremely sensible process.

Do you have a source for that? The Scottish Gov website, and PHS, both say otherwise

The weekly NRS figures count anyone where Covid is mentioned on the death certificate. The Scottish government refer to the NRS numbers as more comprehensive every week when they're announced, so those are probably the numbers to trust.

But those aren't the figures used for the daily UK count, just as the PHE 60 day count isn't either (any more), or the ONS number, or anything else.

[Insane_Homer]

Todays UK stats

1,441 tested positive, that steady rise is accelerating (probably includes the ~300 M&S)

new method 11 reported deaths

old method... 122 reported death consistent with 27% increase seen this week.

[ASMO]

Todays UK stats

1,441 tested positive, that steady rise is accelerating (probably includes the ~300 M&S)

new method 11 reported deaths

old method... 122 reported death consistent with 27% increase seen this week.

New method is far more sensible , using the old method, if you had covid in your system and you died in a car crash it would be counted as a covid related death which was utter fucking lunacy. I am still not fully trusting the death numbers though, do i really think 40k plus peple died of Covid and Covid only? nope, certainly many died of existing conditions that may have been exacerbated by having covid but how do you objectively tell?

[Insane_Homer]

yes, but 111 car crashes to make up the difference

Neither method is perfect, but there shouldn't be such a huge discrepancy,

It's a farce.

[Bimbowomxn]

yes, but 111 car crashes to make up the difference

Neither method is perfect, but there shouldn't be such a huge discrepancy,

It's a farce.

It certainly makes most of your posts about deaths farcical.

[.OverThere]

If a new method were better able to explain prior discrepancies, then one could have more faith in the numbers.
The number of deaths for the year has not changed. How does the revised total of covid deaths for any prior period compare against the same period in previous years? In particular against the average number? The difference which was previously an excess of deaths was quite high.
If the number of covid deaths has fallen, there is an even larger no. of excess deaths that require an explanation.

[Blackmac]

He wouldn't be counted by the WHO measure either (60 days)

He also wouldn't have been counted if he lived in Wales, Scotland or NI

There's also apparently at least one death in the statistics where someone had tested positive then been hit by a bus.

If a fit and healthy person contracts Covid and dies from Covid after the 28 day period, then that is still counted as a Covid death in Scotland. It is only if the death is related to other health issues that it is discounted after 28 days. It seems an extremely sensible process.

Do you have a source for that? The Scottish Gov website, and PHS, both say otherwise

I don't have a written source but a personal friend who is a Fiscal in the Scottish Fatalities Investigation Unit who collate all deaths in Scotland. He is adamant all deaths directly caused by Covid, regardless of the length of time, would be counted. So the likes of Garroway's man would be counted.

[fishfoodie]

If a new method were better able to explain prior discrepancies, then one could have more faith in the numbers.
The number of deaths for the year has not changed. How does the revised total of covid deaths for any prior period compare against the same period in previous years? In particular against the average number? The difference which was previously an excess of deaths was quite high.
If the number of covid deaths has fallen, there is an even larger no. of excess deaths that require an explanation.

It all depends on what you are using the statistics for ?

The daily numbers are first & foremost about tracking infections & deaths; but the most important thing is for the health authorities to be able to estimate the R number daily; as this is what they'll use to decide if they need to trigger lockdowns, & help them prepare for a spike in hospitalizations etc

The problem is that you need to order the point in time when infections probably occurred; & not the order they're detected. So if you get ten people presenting over a 10 day period; you don't want to record their infections on ten different days, if they all got infected on the same day, & the same place, as you'll get a much less accurate R value. I assume this is also the logic for not recording deaths after a prolonged period.

[.OverThere]

If a new method were better able to explain prior discrepancies, then one could have more faith in the numbers.
The number of deaths for the year has not changed. How does the revised total of covid deaths for any prior period compare against the same period in previous years? In particular against the average number? The difference which was previously an excess of deaths was quite high.
If the number of covid deaths has fallen, there is an even larger no. of excess deaths that require an explanation.

It all depends on what you are using the statistics for ?

The daily numbers are first & foremost about tracking infections & deaths; but the most important thing is for the health authorities to be able to estimate the R number daily; as this is what they'll use to decide if they need to trigger lockdowns, & help them prepare for a spike in hospitalizations etc

The problem is that you need to order the point in time when infections probably occurred; & not the order they're detected. So if you get ten people presenting over a 10 day period; you don't want to record their infections on ten different days, if they all got infected on the same day, & the same place, as you'll get a much less accurate R value. I assume this is also the logic for not recording deaths after a prolonged period.

Politicians tend to use them for politics.

[fishfoodie]

If a new method were better able to explain prior discrepancies, then one could have more faith in the numbers.
The number of deaths for the year has not changed. How does the revised total of covid deaths for any prior period compare against the same period in previous years? In particular against the average number? The difference which was previously an excess of deaths was quite high.
If the number of covid deaths has fallen, there is an even larger no. of excess deaths that require an explanation.

It all depends on what you are using the statistics for ?

The daily numbers are first & foremost about tracking infections & deaths; but the most important thing is for the health authorities to be able to estimate the R number daily; as this is what they'll use to decide if they need to trigger lockdowns, & help them prepare for a spike in hospitalizations etc

The problem is that you need to order the point in time when infections probably occurred; & not the order they're detected. So if you get ten people presenting over a 10 day period; you don't want to record their infections on ten different days, if they all got infected on the same day, & the same place, as you'll get a much less accurate R value. I assume this is also the logic for not recording deaths after a prolonged period.

Politicians tend to use them for politics.

They can dick about with the daily numbers; but they're fooling themselves if they think they're doing themselves a favour; because it's the excess deaths that people will look at when the Elections roll around; & it's very hard to game them.

[Saint]

It all depends on what you are using the statistics for ?

The daily numbers are first & foremost about tracking infections & deaths; but the most important thing is for the health authorities to be able to estimate the R number daily; as this is what they'll use to decide if they need to trigger lockdowns, & help them prepare for a spike in hospitalizations etc

The problem is that you need to order the point in time when infections probably occurred; & not the order they're detected. So if you get ten people presenting over a 10 day period; you don't want to record their infections on ten different days, if they all got infected on the same day, & the same place, as you'll get a much less accurate R value. I assume this is also the logic for not recording deaths after a prolonged period.

Politicians tend to use them for politics.

They can dick about with the daily numbers; but they're fooling themselves if they think they're doing themselves a favour; because it's the excess deaths that people will look at when the Elections roll around; & it's very hard to game them.

You think the average voter will care, or understand, the various different statistics?

Seriously?

Whatever you're on, I want some

[The Druid]

Is this showing that the Covid rate of infections is starting to peak?