NPR

Kwasi Kwarteng will need to find £60bn of savings by 2026 to fill the gap left by unfunded tax cuts and the costs of extra borrowing triggered by a panicked reaction on international money markets to the chancellor’s “mini-budget”, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

The UK will also struggle to hit the chancellor’s 2.5% growth target, with economic forecasts by the investment bank Citigroup that the IFS uses to underpin its analysis showing the UK will struggle to grow at more than 0.8% on average over the next five years.

SaintK wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 8:20 am Way to go Kwarteng!! Austerity here we come.................again!!

Kwasi Kwarteng will need to find £60bn of savings by 2026 to fill the gap left by unfunded tax cuts and the costs of extra borrowing triggered by a panicked reaction on international money markets to the chancellor’s “mini-budget”, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

The UK will also struggle to hit the chancellor’s 2.5% growth target, with economic forecasts by the investment bank Citigroup that the IFS uses to underpin its analysis showing the UK will struggle to grow at more than 0.8% on average over the next five years.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics ... ing-cuts

SaintK wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 8:20 am Way to go Kwarteng!! Austerity here we come.................again!!

Kwasi Kwarteng will need to find £60bn of savings by 2026 to fill the gap left by unfunded tax cuts and the costs of extra borrowing triggered by a panicked reaction on international money markets to the chancellor’s “mini-budget”, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

The UK will also struggle to hit the chancellor’s 2.5% growth target, with economic forecasts by the investment bank Citigroup that the IFS uses to underpin its analysis showing the UK will struggle to grow at more than 0.8% on average over the next five years.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics ... ing-cuts

Thérèse Coffey has said nurses will not get a higher pay offer, as they vote on strike action for the first time in decades.

The Royal College of Nursing will ballot nurses this week, asking for a higher pay award as well as action to tackle pressures caused by surging vacancies.

The RCN says the government’s offer of a 3% wage rise “makes a difference to a nurse’s wage of 72p a week”.

Rhubarb & Custard wrote: ↑Mon Oct 10, 2022 2:51 pm Not all pasture if all that well placed for collection and distribution of energy, but plenty is. And solar panels don't seem to have much of a negative impact on the weight animals add when grazing in panelled fields Vs just grass, and interestingly when you get down to smaller animals like sheep it seems to reduce their requirement for water which is a big win, probably a shading thing but I don't know if anyone has signed off on the data for that (I'm not saying they haven't just I don't read many agri journals)

SaintK wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 8:20 am Way to go Kwarteng!! Austerity here we come.................again!!

Kwasi Kwarteng will need to find £60bn of savings by 2026 to fill the gap left by unfunded tax cuts and the costs of extra borrowing triggered by a panicked reaction on international money markets to the chancellor’s “mini-budget”, according to the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

The UK will also struggle to hit the chancellor’s 2.5% growth target, with economic forecasts by the investment bank Citigroup that the IFS uses to underpin its analysis showing the UK will struggle to grow at more than 0.8% on average over the next five years.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics ... ing-cuts

tabascoboy wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 11:31 am Well, great. So what was much more important that they had to discuss that instead?

tabascoboy wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 11:31 am Well, great. So what was much more important that they had to discuss that instead?

Deveron Boy wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 1:25 pm Deputy PM Therese Coffey this am 'poor people are richer than you think' this morning on radio 4 - absolute clueless and offensive

Deveron Boy wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 1:25 pm Deputy PM Therese Coffey this am 'poor people are richer than you think' this morning on radio 4 - absolute clueless and offensive

Ovals wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 1:53 pm

Deveron Boy wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 1:25 pm Deputy PM Therese Coffey this am 'poor people are richer than you think' this morning on radio 4 - absolute clueless and offensive

But, don't worry, she's 'absolutely confident that our pensions are safe'. Words that, coming from her, send a chill down my spine.

Ovals wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 11:54 am Institute of Fiscal Studies reckons they need to find £60bn of public spending cuts per year to balance the books and pay for their tax cuts !! Not sure if even the BofE can save the day if they don't come up with a convincing plan. And, if that plan involves cuts that many Tory MPs find intolerable, we could well see a total Government meltdown,

tabascoboy wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 5:39 pm The words "useless" and "waste of space" spring to mind

salanya wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 6:10 pm And amongst all the other madness, something about bankrupting the country, Truss still hasn't bothered to contact Sturgeon or Drakeford.
A new low for the Conservative and Unionist Party.
As well as hugely insulting to two of the devolved nations of the 'United Kingdom'.

I had low expectations of Truss as PM, but I didn't think she would be this atrocious.

petej wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 6:28 pm

tabascoboy wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 5:39 pm The words "useless" and "waste of space" spring to mind

Sometimes I think our media expects too much of our politicians under questioning. A lot of that is for kwamikasi to answer not for Theresa coffey but she has to answer effectively on things relating to her role so the answers on the nurses striking and smoking targets are poor.

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 8:14 pm

_Os_ wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 9:03 pm

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 8:14 pm

That's because Bailey (BoE governor) just directly told pension funds they have 3 days to rebalance their positions and after that the BoE is taking no further action, as per the original intension that it was temporary action. Either the BoE caves in 3 days and starts QE to support pensions, which means the BoE loses credibility and erratic fiscal policy coming out of Downing Street has won, which would mean money printing and maybe the end of the £ being sound. Or the BoE sticks to its guns and pensions maybe collapse (but no one really knows).

Most of this goes away if the two morons backdown, but their belief cutting taxes beyond what is credibly possible produces growth and their ignorance/stupidity have combined to make that look very unlikely. Kamikwasi is trying to find over £40bn in spending cuts, whilst Truss is saying there definitely won't be austerity.

This is all being wilfully brought about by the Tories. It's all completely self inflicted.

fishfoodie wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 9:12 pm
If a major pension goes under, we aren't just talking about losing a GE, or two; we're talking about the total destruction of the Conservative Party. It's hard to overstate how bad this could be.

I like neeps wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 7:14 am https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/indi ... -bpgkw6prr

Lol. And Truss can't sack her and she'd bring down her government. What a palavar.

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 7:36 am

I like neeps wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 7:14 am https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/indi ... -bpgkw6prr

Lol. And Truss can't sack her and she'd bring down her government. What a palavar.

We need a general election, asap.

fishfoodie wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 9:12 pm

_Os_ wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 9:03 pm

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 8:14 pm

That's because Bailey (BoE governor) just directly told pension funds they have 3 days to rebalance their positions and after that the BoE is taking no further action, as per the original intension that it was temporary action. Either the BoE caves in 3 days and starts QE to support pensions, which means the BoE loses credibility and erratic fiscal policy coming out of Downing Street has won, which would mean money printing and maybe the end of the £ being sound. Or the BoE sticks to its guns and pensions maybe collapse (but no one really knows).

Most of this goes away if the two morons backdown, but their belief cutting taxes beyond what is credibly possible produces growth and their ignorance/stupidity have combined to make that look very unlikely. Kamikwasi is trying to find over £40bn in spending cuts, whilst Truss is saying there definitely won't be austerity.

This is all being wilfully brought about by the Tories. It's all completely self inflicted.

I don't think they can survive even a relatively small pension fund collapsing; but I have a horrible feeling that we aren't taking about small pension funds here, I think it's the biggies with the sword of Damocles hanging above their heads.

If a major pension goes under, we aren't just talking about losing a GE, or two; we're talking about the total destruction of the Conservative Party. It's hard to overstate how bad this could be.

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 7:36 am

I like neeps wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 7:14 am https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/indi ... -bpgkw6prr

Lol. And Truss can't sack her and she'd bring down her government. What a palavar.

We need a general election, asap.

fishfoodie wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 9:12 pm

_Os_ wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 9:03 pm

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 8:14 pm

That's because Bailey (BoE governor) just directly told pension funds they have 3 days to rebalance their positions and after that the BoE is taking no further action, as per the original intension that it was temporary action. Either the BoE caves in 3 days and starts QE to support pensions, which means the BoE loses credibility and erratic fiscal policy coming out of Downing Street has won, which would mean money printing and maybe the end of the £ being sound. Or the BoE sticks to its guns and pensions maybe collapse (but no one really knows).

Most of this goes away if the two morons backdown, but their belief cutting taxes beyond what is credibly possible produces growth and their ignorance/stupidity have combined to make that look very unlikely. Kamikwasi is trying to find over £40bn in spending cuts, whilst Truss is saying there definitely won't be austerity.

This is all being wilfully brought about by the Tories. It's all completely self inflicted.

I don't think they can survive even a relatively small pension fund collapsing; but I have a horrible feeling that we aren't taking about small pension funds here, I think it's the biggies with the sword of Damocles hanging above their heads.

If a major pension goes under, we aren't just talking about losing a GE, or two; we're talking about the total destruction of the Conservative Party. It's hard to overstate how bad this could be.

_Os_ wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 4:24 pm

More from the Tory alternate reality.

The article isn't long but is very odd, the Treasury is the core of the "anti growth coalition" apparently. It ends on a mad one about the problem with James Bowler being appointed permanent secretary to the Treasury, is that he is a white man and this shows he's a representative of an evil establishment elite, before concluding that Truss is too weak and not extreme enough.

I like neeps wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 8:30 am

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 7:36 am

I like neeps wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 7:14 am https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/indi ... -bpgkw6prr

Lol. And Truss can't sack her and she'd bring down her government. What a palavar.

We need a general election, asap.

They're like rats in a sack at the minute. We need them to destroy each other and therefore the conservative party forever first.

Rees-Mogg, the business secretary, refused to accept that the mini-budget was the primary cause of the market turmoil in the UK that has led to the Bank of England having to make emergency interventions to rescue pension funds. And he criticised the BBC presenter Mishal Husain for making the link, accusing her of being unprofessional. (See 9.21am.) Rees-Mogg suggested that it was the Bank itself that was mainly to blame, because it did not raise interest rates by as much as necessary in September.

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 8:52 am

_Os_ wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 4:24 pm

More from the Tory alternate reality.

The article isn't long but is very odd, the Treasury is the core of the "anti growth coalition" apparently. It ends on a mad one about the problem with James Bowler being appointed permanent secretary to the Treasury, is that he is a white man and this shows he's a representative of an evil establishment elite, before concluding that Truss is too weak and not extreme enough.

Treasury Orthodoxy over 30/40 years has seen large swathes of Britain become some of the poorest areas in Western Europe, this did not begin with Brexit and it is not unfair to suggest alternative approaches (the current alternative approach is batshit obviously)

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 9:14 am

I like neeps wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 8:30 am

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 7:36 am

We need a general election, asap.

They're like rats in a sack at the minute. We need them to destroy each other and therefore the conservative party forever first.

I'd quite like then to do that in opposition rather have them fuck us all over even more than they have done - who knew it could get worse than Johnson?

It could conceivably get worse than Truss after she's fired into the sun in a few months.

_Os_ wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 9:56 am

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Wed Oct 12, 2022 8:52 am

_Os_ wrote: ↑Tue Oct 11, 2022 4:24 pm

More from the Tory alternate reality.

The article isn't long but is very odd, the Treasury is the core of the "anti growth coalition" apparently. It ends on a mad one about the problem with James Bowler being appointed permanent secretary to the Treasury, is that he is a white man and this shows he's a representative of an evil establishment elite, before concluding that Truss is too weak and not extreme enough.

Treasury Orthodoxy over 30/40 years has seen large swathes of Britain become some of the poorest areas in Western Europe, this did not begin with Brexit and it is not unfair to suggest alternative approaches (the current alternative approach is batshit obviously)

That Spectator article is trying to use culture wars bullshit (that no normal person cares about) to explain the economy. Which was the point I was making, the stuff one side is pumping out is total madness, whatever reality they're in it's not the same one I'm in.

Getting into the actual substance. The immediate point is that "Treasury orthodoxy" looks almost conspiratorial if that's the primary explanation, it's Trump's "deep state" and "drain the swamp". The real explanation is that globalisation and the end of the Cold War unlocked a huge supply of labour, then computer and telecoms technology amplified this. This created a lot of new wealth, including in the UK, the UK hasn't stagnated for 30-40 years. What some advanced economies have failed to do (most evident in English speaking countries it seems) is ensure that new wealth was spread widely, rather than concentrated at the top and in specific geographic locations. Politics is mostly process driven not event driven, the process started with Thatcherism (which still dominates the orthodox position), Blair/New Labour and Cameron changed some parts of this model (and the orthodoxy too) but did not replace it. Then Brexit promised those that had been failed by this process total system change and no immigration, and those that had done well from this process no system change and also no immigration ... and what they got is a deranged version of Thatcherism (and now Reaganism) and even greater immigration.

Tory alternate reality is a responsibility free zone. 2022 UK is more or less a Tory creation. The structural problems aren't the fault of the external enemies the Tories have created (EU, immigrants), nor the internal enemies that have been invented (single mothers, benefits claimants, judges, remainers, the Treasury, and now "the anti growth coalition"). The problems and the lack of solutions are about Tory thought being dominant and any alternative being immediately destroyed as heretical. Which means the problem is with the voters too. New Labour mk2 is a real possibility now (a definite upgrade on what's currently in power), but that doesn't actually fix the problem. An electoral system that forces the creation of two dominant parties and forces a false consensus, is one of the bigger culprits in all this.