NPR

Biffer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 13, 2022 7:56 pm

Jockaline wrote: ↑Thu Oct 13, 2022 7:13 pm

fishfoodie wrote: ↑Thu Oct 13, 2022 5:17 pm

Every Cloud has a silver lining.

It's a lot harder for anyone to take digs at the viability of an Independent Scottish Economy, with the shambles going on south of the border.

Much like the political institutions; if the local assemblies just project stability, & some degree of competence, then its one less argument for the Unionists.

I think the opposite is true actually:
1) Boris/Tories has been used as one of SNP selling points, but Truss has ensured this will end in two years min. The worse she is less threat they are as it lengthens the time they will be out of power.
2) Recent events have shown how vulnerable what we take for granted is, and there will be no BOE to bail out an independent Scotland..
3) SNP wanted to track the pound last time, so means all the big financial decisions made in Westminster will affect the Scots who will have no say whatsoever. Again recent events will have brought this into sharper focus.
4) Starmer doesn't look likely to reverse Brexit any time soon, and Brexit was a bit of killer for Indy since the security fallback of being in the EU is far more difficult achieve. While SNP tried to use anger at Brexit to their advantage, it really doesn't work if you take the emotion out of it.

1) I think more people are realising that the UK is fundamentally Tory, when Scotland isn’t, and five or ten years of Labour won’t change that. They know the Tories will be back. Since we last voted Tory in Scotland, 40 years out of 63 have been Tory governments that we didn’t vote for.
2) valid point, but it doesn’t seem any of us are really being protected that much right now.
3) that was a policy to reassure people about stability. I know a lot of Indy supporters who would happily tie to the euro, and a different approach is more likely given the recent shitshow
4) Scotland would rapidly get access to the EEA and / or EFTA and look to rejoin the EU.

Overall question is there’s pain coming, do you want it as part of a petty minded little englander Uak or as part of the broad shoulders of Europe.

It's odd the way history has this habit of repeating itself, over & over again.

Republican / Secessionist movements seem to have a bad habit of cutting off their noses, to spite their faces; & as a result being Financially irresponsible, & naive.

When Ireland got it's Independence, we were naturally led by a Republican Party, & as a result the single most moronic Economic policy took shape, where we decided to ignore the massive export market we'd previously relied on for most of our income, because they also happened to be the Country we'd just declared Independence from.

As a result of this idiocy, the Irish economy was hamstrung for decades, until adults took charge, & then it was turbo charged when we joined the EEC.

If the SNP wants to gain peoples confidence, it needs to start laying out an economic development roadmap, that isn't based on fantasy, spite, or magic money trees, & build relationships, independent of the rest of UK, with political parties around the EU, so that if/when the moment comes, they have friendly voices in support. The EU is full of small Countries, & they provide a helpful balance against the big ones.

There are; especially since so many Eastern European countries have joined in the last few decades; roadmaps for how a country which is far less developed than Scotland, can become a full member of the EU. It's really just a case of deciding what the endpoint is to be, & putting forward a credible plan.

Hal Jordan wrote: ↑Thu Oct 13, 2022 1:47 pm I, for one, am glad that our Parliamentary system has delivered a lack of unstable governments, factionalism, frequent changes of leader and influence from extreme political parties that are the hallmark of the coalitions created under proportional representation, so favoured by Johnny Foreigner.

fishfoodie wrote: ↑Thu Oct 13, 2022 9:20 pm

It's odd the way history has this habit of repeating itself, over & over again.

Republican / Secessionist movements seem to have a bad habit of cutting off their noses, to spite their faces; & as a result being Financially irresponsible, & naive.

When Ireland got it's Independence, we were naturally led by a Republican Party, & as a result the single most moronic Economic policy took shape, where we decided to ignore the massive export market we'd previously relied on for most of our income, because they also happened to be the Country we'd just declared Independence from.

As a result of this idiocy, the Irish economy was hamstrung for decades, until adults took charge, & then it was turbo charged when we joined the EEC.

If the SNP wants to gain peoples confidence, it needs to start laying out an economic development roadmap, that isn't based on fantasy, spite, or magic money trees, & build relationships, independent of the rest of UK, with political parties around the EU, so that if/when the moment comes, they have friendly voices in support. The EU is full of small Countries, & they provide a helpful balance against the big ones.

There are; especially since so many Eastern European countries have joined in the last few decades; roadmaps for how a country which is far less developed than Scotland, can become a full member of the EU. It's really just a case of deciding what the endpoint is to be, & putting forward a credible plan.

Different times of course, but I wonder what the feelings would have been towards a European Union in a newly independent Ireland?

In Scotland there is a strong faction among Indy supporters of, "Why gain independence from Westminster and then throw it away to Brussels?" *
I do not hold that view, and perhaps I'm influenced by people I know into thinking this is a widely held belief, but it is there. I know people who have left the SNP because of their policies on Europe, but still campaign for Scot Indy.


*my argument is always; France, Germany, Spain, Italy etc are all independent countries within the EU, Scotland can be one too.

fishfoodie wrote: ↑Thu Oct 13, 2022 9:20 pm

Biffer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 13, 2022 7:56 pm

Jockaline wrote: ↑Thu Oct 13, 2022 7:13 pm

I think the opposite is true actually:
1) Boris/Tories has been used as one of SNP selling points, but Truss has ensured this will end in two years min. The worse she is less threat they are as it lengthens the time they will be out of power.
2) Recent events have shown how vulnerable what we take for granted is, and there will be no BOE to bail out an independent Scotland..
3) SNP wanted to track the pound last time, so means all the big financial decisions made in Westminster will affect the Scots who will have no say whatsoever. Again recent events will have brought this into sharper focus.
4) Starmer doesn't look likely to reverse Brexit any time soon, and Brexit was a bit of killer for Indy since the security fallback of being in the EU is far more difficult achieve. While SNP tried to use anger at Brexit to their advantage, it really doesn't work if you take the emotion out of it.

1) I think more people are realising that the UK is fundamentally Tory, when Scotland isn’t, and five or ten years of Labour won’t change that. They know the Tories will be back. Since we last voted Tory in Scotland, 40 years out of 63 have been Tory governments that we didn’t vote for.
2) valid point, but it doesn’t seem any of us are really being protected that much right now.
3) that was a policy to reassure people about stability. I know a lot of Indy supporters who would happily tie to the euro, and a different approach is more likely given the recent shitshow
4) Scotland would rapidly get access to the EEA and / or EFTA and look to rejoin the EU.

Overall question is there’s pain coming, do you want it as part of a petty minded little englander Uak or as part of the broad shoulders of Europe.

It's odd the way history has this habit of repeating itself, over & over again.

Republican / Secessionist movements seem to have a bad habit of cutting off their noses, to spite their faces; & as a result being Financially irresponsible, & naive.

When Ireland got it's Independence, we were naturally led by a Republican Party, & as a result the single most moronic Economic policy took shape, where we decided to ignore the massive export market we'd previously relied on for most of our income, because they also happened to be the Country we'd just declared Independence from.

As a result of this idiocy, the Irish economy was hamstrung for decades, until adults took charge, & then it was turbo charged when we joined the EEC.

If the SNP wants to gain peoples confidence, it needs to start laying out an economic development roadmap, that isn't based on fantasy, spite, or magic money trees, & build relationships, independent of the rest of UK, with political parties around the EU, so that if/when the moment comes, they have friendly voices in support. The EU is full of small Countries, & they provide a helpful balance against the big ones.

There are; especially since so many Eastern European countries have joined in the last few decades; roadmaps for how a country which is far less developed than Scotland, can become a full member of the EU. It's really just a case of deciding what the endpoint is to be, & putting forward a credible plan.

Well I think this hits the nail on the head actually.

Brexit, Boris and now this mess were all meant to move the dial on Indy, but haven't really. It's just a personal view but I can see the Indy bubble beginning to deflate and this nonsense of the next GE being a defacto referendum and the very real probability of the next UK government being Labour has the capacity to put it on the back foot for at least the next decade.

It seems to me that those pro Indy are made up a majority of folk that just don't care about the impact or haven't the capacity to realise it and a minority who do get it but think it is worth it in the short to medium term to look after ourselves, which is fair enough. I think the only way to move that dial and get towards the 65%-70% in favour, which I think should be the minimum, is to start being honest about the future. At one end you have the "independence is the answer to everything and we will be rich beyond our wildest dreams" to " we will end up on the scrapheap", when of course the answer is somewhere between, but more on the hurt and pain end.

I just don't understand how the SNP expect people who are against at the moment to vote for it when we know, and they know, there is absolutely no credible plan in place after 12 years, none at all. Even basic questions are not being addressed in favour of protecting what they have. How ever bad things are for the UK at the moment, the option of going it alone without and real idea of what that means just seems crazy. There is also the issue that by just about every metric Scotland has been going backwards with this government and the glaring reality that below Sturgeon (way out in front) and Forbes there is absolutely no talent, little intelligence and close to zero statesmanship or statecraft - much as I admire Sturgeon in some ways, I can't see her leading an independent country.

Being a small independent country in Europe actually excites me but I need honesty, I need answers about our new relationship with our biggest, by far, trading partner, what we can realistically expect our lives to look like for the next 10 years after. I'd also like some kind of admission that the current SG would be massively out of their depth, and they would look to form a coalition of politicians and experienced civil servants to take us on that journey.

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 7:50 am

fishfoodie wrote: ↑Thu Oct 13, 2022 9:20 pm

It's odd the way history has this habit of repeating itself, over & over again.

Republican / Secessionist movements seem to have a bad habit of cutting off their noses, to spite their faces; & as a result being Financially irresponsible, & naive.

When Ireland got it's Independence, we were naturally led by a Republican Party, & as a result the single most moronic Economic policy took shape, where we decided to ignore the massive export market we'd previously relied on for most of our income, because they also happened to be the Country we'd just declared Independence from.

As a result of this idiocy, the Irish economy was hamstrung for decades, until adults took charge, & then it was turbo charged when we joined the EEC.

If the SNP wants to gain peoples confidence, it needs to start laying out an economic development roadmap, that isn't based on fantasy, spite, or magic money trees, & build relationships, independent of the rest of UK, with political parties around the EU, so that if/when the moment comes, they have friendly voices in support. The EU is full of small Countries, & they provide a helpful balance against the big ones.

There are; especially since so many Eastern European countries have joined in the last few decades; roadmaps for how a country which is far less developed than Scotland, can become a full member of the EU. It's really just a case of deciding what the endpoint is to be, & putting forward a credible plan.

Different times of course, but I wonder what the feelings would have been towards a European Union in a newly independent Ireland?

In Scotland there is a strong faction among Indy supporters of, "Why gain independence from Westminster and then throw it away to Brussels?" *
I do not hold that view, and perhaps I'm influenced by people I know into thinking this is a widely held belief, but it is there. I know people who have left the SNP because of their policies on Europe, but still campaign for Scot Indy.

*my argument is always; France, Germany, Spain, Italy etc are all independent countries within the EU, Scotland can be one too.

It depends which bit of the Republican movement held sway !

The bit that formed Fianna Fáil would probably have been on board with it, but there's always been a strong strain of Marxism in the Republican movement, funnily enough down to a Scot , James Connolly, & Sinn Fein, you remember them, the guys who got arms from Libya, & money from Moscow; they consider themselves the natural successors to this, & they consistently campaigned & voted against any further integration, & echo exactly the same shite as Farage did about the EU..

Mad Nad pouring petro;l on the flames! She just can't keep her mouth shut! FFS she was calling for an election last week as the Truss cabinet had no mandate.

Dorries says: "Those absurdly called grandee MPs (men) agitating to remove Liz Truss are all Sunak supporters. They agitated to remove Boris Johnson and now they will continue plotting until they get their way.
"It's a plot not to remove a PM but to overturn democracy."

fishfoodie wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 8:36 am
The bit that formed Fianna Fáil would probably have been on board with it, but there's always been a strong strain of Marxism in the Republican movement, funnily enough down to a Scot ]James Connolly

Aye, I know Connolly;

"If you remove the English Army tomorrow and hoist the green flag over Dublin Castle., unless you set about the organization of the Socialist Republic your efforts will be in vain. England will still rule you. She would rule you through her capitalists, through her landlords, through her financiers, through the whole array of commercial and individualist institutions she has planted in this country and watered with the tears of our mothers and the blood of our martyrs"

Slick wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 8:18 am

fishfoodie wrote: ↑Thu Oct 13, 2022 9:20 pm

Biffer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 13, 2022 7:56 pm

1) I think more people are realising that the UK is fundamentally Tory, when Scotland isn’t, and five or ten years of Labour won’t change that. They know the Tories will be back. Since we last voted Tory in Scotland, 40 years out of 63 have been Tory governments that we didn’t vote for.
2) valid point, but it doesn’t seem any of us are really being protected that much right now.
3) that was a policy to reassure people about stability. I know a lot of Indy supporters who would happily tie to the euro, and a different approach is more likely given the recent shitshow
4) Scotland would rapidly get access to the EEA and / or EFTA and look to rejoin the EU.

Overall question is there’s pain coming, do you want it as part of a petty minded little englander Uak or as part of the broad shoulders of Europe.

It's odd the way history has this habit of repeating itself, over & over again.

Republican / Secessionist movements seem to have a bad habit of cutting off their noses, to spite their faces; & as a result being Financially irresponsible, & naive.

When Ireland got it's Independence, we were naturally led by a Republican Party, & as a result the single most moronic Economic policy took shape, where we decided to ignore the massive export market we'd previously relied on for most of our income, because they also happened to be the Country we'd just declared Independence from.

As a result of this idiocy, the Irish economy was hamstrung for decades, until adults took charge, & then it was turbo charged when we joined the EEC.

If the SNP wants to gain peoples confidence, it needs to start laying out an economic development roadmap, that isn't based on fantasy, spite, or magic money trees, & build relationships, independent of the rest of UK, with political parties around the EU, so that if/when the moment comes, they have friendly voices in support. The EU is full of small Countries, & they provide a helpful balance against the big ones.

There are; especially since so many Eastern European countries have joined in the last few decades; roadmaps for how a country which is far less developed than Scotland, can become a full member of the EU. It's really just a case of deciding what the endpoint is to be, & putting forward a credible plan.

Well I think this hits the nail on the head actually.

Brexit, Boris and now this mess were all meant to move the dial on Indy, but haven't really. It's just a personal view but I can see the Indy bubble beginning to deflate and this nonsense of the next GE being a defacto referendum and the very real probability of the next UK government being Labour has the capacity to put it on the back foot for at least the next decade.

It seems to me that those pro Indy are made up a majority of folk that just don't care about the impact or haven't the capacity to realise it and a minority who do get it but think it is worth it in the short to medium term to look after ourselves, which is fair enough. I think the only way to move that dial and get towards the 65%-70% in favour, which I think should be the minimum, is to start being honest about the future. At one end you have the "independence is the answer to everything and we will be rich beyond our wildest dreams" to " we will end up on the scrapheap", when of course the answer is somewhere between, but more on the hurt and pain end.

I just don't understand how the SNP expect people who are against at the moment to vote for it when we know, and they know, there is absolutely no credible plan in place after 12 years, none at all. Even basic questions are not being addressed in favour of protecting what they have. How ever bad things are for the UK at the moment, the option of going it alone without and real idea of what that means just seems crazy. There is also the issue that by just about every metric Scotland has been going backwards with this government and the glaring reality that below Sturgeon (way out in front) and Forbes there is absolutely no talent, little intelligence and close to zero statesmanship or statecraft - much as I admire Sturgeon in some ways, I can't see her leading an independent country.

Being a small independent country in Europe actually excites me but I need honesty, I need answers about our new relationship with our biggest, by far, trading partner, what we can realistically expect our lives to look like for the next 10 years after. I'd also like some kind of admission that the current SG would be massively out of their depth, and they would look to form a coalition of politicians and experienced civil servants to take us on that journey.

The most pertinent lesson from Brexit for Scottish independence is surely that leaving a political and economic union is incredibly complicated and difficult, and will have all sorts of unintended consequences. If the UK leaving the EU after just over 40 years (of a not always particularly close union) is such a clusterfuck, Scotland leaving the UK after about 300 years of (a much closer) union is going to be several times more complex and difficult, especially if the SNP refuses to prepare a realistic plan for exit (and we have all seen how well that has gone for Brexiteers).

Realistically, even if Scotland votes to leave, it will likely take decades to sort out before Scotland can contemplate joining the EU.

fishfoodie wrote: ↑Thu Oct 13, 2022 9:20 pm

Biffer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 13, 2022 7:56 pm

Jockaline wrote: ↑Thu Oct 13, 2022 7:13 pm

I think the opposite is true actually:
1) Boris/Tories has been used as one of SNP selling points, but Truss has ensured this will end in two years min. The worse she is less threat they are as it lengthens the time they will be out of power.
2) Recent events have shown how vulnerable what we take for granted is, and there will be no BOE to bail out an independent Scotland..
3) SNP wanted to track the pound last time, so means all the big financial decisions made in Westminster will affect the Scots who will have no say whatsoever. Again recent events will have brought this into sharper focus.
4) Starmer doesn't look likely to reverse Brexit any time soon, and Brexit was a bit of killer for Indy since the security fallback of being in the EU is far more difficult achieve. While SNP tried to use anger at Brexit to their advantage, it really doesn't work if you take the emotion out of it.

1) I think more people are realising that the UK is fundamentally Tory, when Scotland isn’t, and five or ten years of Labour won’t change that. They know the Tories will be back. Since we last voted Tory in Scotland, 40 years out of 63 have been Tory governments that we didn’t vote for.
2) valid point, but it doesn’t seem any of us are really being protected that much right now.
3) that was a policy to reassure people about stability. I know a lot of Indy supporters who would happily tie to the euro, and a different approach is more likely given the recent shitshow
4) Scotland would rapidly get access to the EEA and / or EFTA and look to rejoin the EU.

Overall question is there’s pain coming, do you want it as part of a petty minded little englander Uak or as part of the broad shoulders of Europe.

It's odd the way history has this habit of repeating itself, over & over again.

Republican / Secessionist movements seem to have a bad habit of cutting off their noses, to spite their faces; & as a result being Financially irresponsible, & naive.

When Ireland got it's Independence, we were naturally led by a Republican Party, & as a result the single most moronic Economic policy took shape, where we decided to ignore the massive export market we'd previously relied on for most of our income, because they also happened to be the Country we'd just declared Independence from.

As a result of this idiocy, the Irish economy was hamstrung for decades, until adults took charge, & then it was turbo charged when we joined the EEC.

If the SNP wants to gain peoples confidence, it needs to start laying out an economic development roadmap, that isn't based on fantasy, spite, or magic money trees, & build relationships, independent of the rest of UK, with political parties around the EU, so that if/when the moment comes, they have friendly voices in support. The EU is full of small Countries, & they provide a helpful balance against the big ones.

There are; especially since so many Eastern European countries have joined in the last few decades; roadmaps for how a country which is far less developed than Scotland, can become a full member of the EU. It's really just a case of deciding what the endpoint is to be, & putting forward a credible plan.

The biggest problem facing an independent Scotland and EU membership is the exact same one now facing Northern Ireland - the border. Unless there is a sea change in England and a complete u-turn on the extremist brexit ideology then there would have to be a hard border between England and Scotland (or at least a significantly harder border than the completely transparent one that currently exists). That could potentially have a devastating effect on commerce, industry and of course the border communities.

Of course diversifying your economy and reducing its massive interlocking reliance on England's economy would absolutely be good for Scotland in the long term (true even regardless of Independence or EU membership), it would be extremely difficult to manage in the short to medium term.

Lobby wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:11 am

Slick wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 8:18 am

fishfoodie wrote: ↑Thu Oct 13, 2022 9:20 pm

It's odd the way history has this habit of repeating itself, over & over again.

Republican / Secessionist movements seem to have a bad habit of cutting off their noses, to spite their faces; & as a result being Financially irresponsible, & naive.

When Ireland got it's Independence, we were naturally led by a Republican Party, & as a result the single most moronic Economic policy took shape, where we decided to ignore the massive export market we'd previously relied on for most of our income, because they also happened to be the Country we'd just declared Independence from.

As a result of this idiocy, the Irish economy was hamstrung for decades, until adults took charge, & then it was turbo charged when we joined the EEC.

If the SNP wants to gain peoples confidence, it needs to start laying out an economic development roadmap, that isn't based on fantasy, spite, or magic money trees, & build relationships, independent of the rest of UK, with political parties around the EU, so that if/when the moment comes, they have friendly voices in support. The EU is full of small Countries, & they provide a helpful balance against the big ones.

There are; especially since so many Eastern European countries have joined in the last few decades; roadmaps for how a country which is far less developed than Scotland, can become a full member of the EU. It's really just a case of deciding what the endpoint is to be, & putting forward a credible plan.

Well I think this hits the nail on the head actually.

Brexit, Boris and now this mess were all meant to move the dial on Indy, but haven't really. It's just a personal view but I can see the Indy bubble beginning to deflate and this nonsense of the next GE being a defacto referendum and the very real probability of the next UK government being Labour has the capacity to put it on the back foot for at least the next decade.

It seems to me that those pro Indy are made up a majority of folk that just don't care about the impact or haven't the capacity to realise it and a minority who do get it but think it is worth it in the short to medium term to look after ourselves, which is fair enough. I think the only way to move that dial and get towards the 65%-70% in favour, which I think should be the minimum, is to start being honest about the future. At one end you have the "independence is the answer to everything and we will be rich beyond our wildest dreams" to " we will end up on the scrapheap", when of course the answer is somewhere between, but more on the hurt and pain end.

I just don't understand how the SNP expect people who are against at the moment to vote for it when we know, and they know, there is absolutely no credible plan in place after 12 years, none at all. Even basic questions are not being addressed in favour of protecting what they have. How ever bad things are for the UK at the moment, the option of going it alone without and real idea of what that means just seems crazy. There is also the issue that by just about every metric Scotland has been going backwards with this government and the glaring reality that below Sturgeon (way out in front) and Forbes there is absolutely no talent, little intelligence and close to zero statesmanship or statecraft - much as I admire Sturgeon in some ways, I can't see her leading an independent country.

Being a small independent country in Europe actually excites me but I need honesty, I need answers about our new relationship with our biggest, by far, trading partner, what we can realistically expect our lives to look like for the next 10 years after. I'd also like some kind of admission that the current SG would be massively out of their depth, and they would look to form a coalition of politicians and experienced civil servants to take us on that journey.

The most pertinent lesson from Brexit for Scottish independence is surely that leaving a political and economic union is incredibly complicated and difficult, and will have all sorts of unintended consequences. If the UK leaving the EU after just over 40 years (of a not always particularly close union) is such a clusterfuck, Scotland leaving the UK after about 300 years of (a much closer) union is going to be several times more complex and difficult, especially if the SNP refuses to prepare a realistic plan for exit (and we have all seen how well that has gone for Brexiteers).

Realistically, even if Scotland votes to leave, it will likely take decades to sort out before Scotland can contemplate joining the EU.

I don't think you can use the Brexit clusterfuck as a yardstick for Scotland, after all the Tories wont be in charge of it. No matter what reservations Scots may have about the quality and experience of their politicians on the international stage, they could not possibly be anywhere near as remotely deluded and incompetent as the Tories.

But you are dead right, it wont be plain sailing and viable plans have to be in place long before any action is taken.

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:03 am

fishfoodie wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 8:36 am
The bit that formed Fianna Fáil would probably have been on board with it, but there's always been a strong strain of Marxism in the Republican movement, funnily enough down to a Scot ]James Connolly

Aye, I know Connolly;

"If you remove the English Army tomorrow and hoist the green flag over Dublin Castle., unless you set about the organization of the Socialist Republic your efforts will be in vain. England will still rule you. She would rule you through her capitalists, through her landlords, through her financiers, through the whole array of commercial and individualist institutions she has planted in this country and watered with the tears of our mothers and the blood of our martyrs"

And that essentially is what happened; England used Ireland as a source of cheap food for nigh on 40 years after 1922. For with our industrially developed area (Belfast and its hinterland) deliberately removed, we were largely an agrarian economy. Incidentally, cutting the industrial heartland from the rest of the island didn't do much for NI either. Dublin was the service centre (including merchant banking to Belfast industry) of the country, and London didn't care about, or more correctly even notice Belfast, bar as a drain on central funds. NI hasn't paid for itself since the mid 1930's, which is some going for a somewhere that was built on industry !

PornDog wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:24 am

fishfoodie wrote: ↑Thu Oct 13, 2022 9:20 pm

Biffer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 13, 2022 7:56 pm

1) I think more people are realising that the UK is fundamentally Tory, when Scotland isn’t, and five or ten years of Labour won’t change that. They know the Tories will be back. Since we last voted Tory in Scotland, 40 years out of 63 have been Tory governments that we didn’t vote for.
2) valid point, but it doesn’t seem any of us are really being protected that much right now.
3) that was a policy to reassure people about stability. I know a lot of Indy supporters who would happily tie to the euro, and a different approach is more likely given the recent shitshow
4) Scotland would rapidly get access to the EEA and / or EFTA and look to rejoin the EU.

Overall question is there’s pain coming, do you want it as part of a petty minded little englander Uak or as part of the broad shoulders of Europe.

It's odd the way history has this habit of repeating itself, over & over again.

Republican / Secessionist movements seem to have a bad habit of cutting off their noses, to spite their faces; & as a result being Financially irresponsible, & naive.

When Ireland got it's Independence, we were naturally led by a Republican Party, & as a result the single most moronic Economic policy took shape, where we decided to ignore the massive export market we'd previously relied on for most of our income, because they also happened to be the Country we'd just declared Independence from.

As a result of this idiocy, the Irish economy was hamstrung for decades, until adults took charge, & then it was turbo charged when we joined the EEC.

If the SNP wants to gain peoples confidence, it needs to start laying out an economic development roadmap, that isn't based on fantasy, spite, or magic money trees, & build relationships, independent of the rest of UK, with political parties around the EU, so that if/when the moment comes, they have friendly voices in support. The EU is full of small Countries, & they provide a helpful balance against the big ones.

There are; especially since so many Eastern European countries have joined in the last few decades; roadmaps for how a country which is far less developed than Scotland, can become a full member of the EU. It's really just a case of deciding what the endpoint is to be, & putting forward a credible plan.

The biggest problem facing an independent Scotland and EU membership is the exact same one now facing Northern Ireland - the border. Unless there is a sea change in England and a complete u-turn on the extremist brexit ideology then there would have to be a hard border between England and Scotland (or at least a significantly harder border than the completely transparent one that currently exists). That could potentially have a devastating effect on commerce, industry and of course the border communities.

Of course diversifying your economy and reducing its massive interlocking reliance on England's economy would absolutely be good for Scotland in the long term (true even regardless of Independence or EU membership), it would be extremely difficult to manage in the short to medium term.

The Scottish border isn't as complex. There's only about 30 crossing points (compared to over 300 in NI), a lot of them could be closed if that's the easiest thing to do and the key ones have space at the border for controls if necessary. It's shorter (NI 310 miles, Scotland 90 miles), substantial parts of it are river and huge parts of it a very remote. Also, there's not the same kind of issues that surround the NI border.

Study that was done a few years ago - https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upload ... -Final.pdf

Quite what the final arrangement with the EU will look like is anyone's guess tbh, but whatever it is it's an order of magnitude easier on the Scotland-England border than it is in Northern Ireland.

I hope that an independent Scotland would be open to disenchanted areas of England joining it...

PornDog wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:29 am

Lobby wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:11 am

Slick wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 8:18 am

Well I think this hits the nail on the head actually.

Brexit, Boris and now this mess were all meant to move the dial on Indy, but haven't really. It's just a personal view but I can see the Indy bubble beginning to deflate and this nonsense of the next GE being a defacto referendum and the very real probability of the next UK government being Labour has the capacity to put it on the back foot for at least the next decade.

It seems to me that those pro Indy are made up a majority of folk that just don't care about the impact or haven't the capacity to realise it and a minority who do get it but think it is worth it in the short to medium term to look after ourselves, which is fair enough. I think the only way to move that dial and get towards the 65%-70% in favour, which I think should be the minimum, is to start being honest about the future. At one end you have the "independence is the answer to everything and we will be rich beyond our wildest dreams" to " we will end up on the scrapheap", when of course the answer is somewhere between, but more on the hurt and pain end.

I just don't understand how the SNP expect people who are against at the moment to vote for it when we know, and they know, there is absolutely no credible plan in place after 12 years, none at all. Even basic questions are not being addressed in favour of protecting what they have. How ever bad things are for the UK at the moment, the option of going it alone without and real idea of what that means just seems crazy. There is also the issue that by just about every metric Scotland has been going backwards with this government and the glaring reality that below Sturgeon (way out in front) and Forbes there is absolutely no talent, little intelligence and close to zero statesmanship or statecraft - much as I admire Sturgeon in some ways, I can't see her leading an independent country.

Being a small independent country in Europe actually excites me but I need honesty, I need answers about our new relationship with our biggest, by far, trading partner, what we can realistically expect our lives to look like for the next 10 years after. I'd also like some kind of admission that the current SG would be massively out of their depth, and they would look to form a coalition of politicians and experienced civil servants to take us on that journey.

The most pertinent lesson from Brexit for Scottish independence is surely that leaving a political and economic union is incredibly complicated and difficult, and will have all sorts of unintended consequences. If the UK leaving the EU after just over 40 years (of a not always particularly close union) is such a clusterfuck, Scotland leaving the UK after about 300 years of (a much closer) union is going to be several times more complex and difficult, especially if the SNP refuses to prepare a realistic plan for exit (and we have all seen how well that has gone for Brexiteers).

Realistically, even if Scotland votes to leave, it will likely take decades to sort out before Scotland can contemplate joining the EU.

I don't think you can use the Brexit clusterfuck as a yardstick for Scotland, after all the Tories wont be in charge of it. No matter what reservations Scots may have about the quality and experience of their politicians on the international stage, they could not possibly be anywhere near as remotely deluded and incompetent as the Tories.

But you are dead right, it wont be plain sailing and viable plans have to be in place long before any action is taken.

I'm sure the Scottish Government wouldn't be anywhere as deluded and incompetent as the Tories have been. However, the UK Government would still be on one side of the negotiating table, potentially while also still trying to deal with Brexit, so the opportunities for fuck ups will still be many and various. It would also be sensible to assume that a UK Government would be every bit as hostile and intransigent in its negotiations with Scotland as the EU has (quite properly) been with the UK.

At least no one in the SNP has said it will be 'the easiest deal in history', although as far as I can see alot of the SNP's thinking still seems to assume that the UK Government will simply roll over and give Scotland everything they want.

Biffer wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:54 am
The Scottish border isn't as complex. There's only about 30 crossing points (compared to over 300 in NI), a lot of them could be closed if that's the easiest thing to do and the key ones have space at the border for controls if necessary. It's shorter (NI 310 miles, Scotland 90 miles), substantial parts of it are river and huge parts of it a very remote. Also, there's not the same kind of issues that surround the NI border.

Study that was done a few years ago - https://ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/upload ... -Final.pdf

Quite what the final arrangement with the EU will look like is anyone's guess tbh, but whatever it is it's an order of magnitude easier on the Scotland-England border than it is in Northern Ireland.

Fair enough There would still have to be a huge amount of commerce that crosses it every day though?

Edit: and just as the Scots aren't run by the Tories, they also wouldn't have the DUP trying to scuttle any and all deals either, so yes thats a further simplification.

Lobby wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 10:05 am
I'm sure the Scottish Government wouldn't be anywhere as deluded and incompetent as the Tories have been. However, the UK Government would still be on one side of the negotiating table, potentially while also still trying to deal with Brexit, so the opportunities for fuck ups will still be many and various. It would also be sensible to assume that a UK Government would be every bit as hostile and intransigent in its negotiations with Scotland as the EU has (quite properly) been with the UK.

At least no one in the SNP has said it will be 'the easiest deal in history', although as far as I can see alot of the SNP's thinking still seems to assume that the UK Government will simply roll over and give Scotland everything they want.

I'm broadly in agreement with you, but hopefully they wouldn't have the Tories on the other side of the table, or at least not this bunch of complete fuckwit Tories, should it actually come to pass.

tabascoboy wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:57 am I hope that an independent Scotland would be open to disenchanted areas of England joining it...

Like London?

tabascoboy wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:57 am I hope that an independent Scotland would be open to disenchanted areas of England joining it...

I'm less sure of that since a lot of those areas voted for Brexit. The Northeast, Northwest and Yorkshire all voted for it, so I'm not keen to bring them along tbh. Yorkshire had the Tories as the largest share of the vote last general election (43%), and in the Ne and NW they were not far off 40%. If they're going to fall for that shtick I'm not sure I'm willing to bring them along.

PornDog wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 10:18 am

tabascoboy wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:57 am I hope that an independent Scotland would be open to disenchanted areas of England joining it...

Like London?

Many places except London more like

tabascoboy wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 10:20 am

PornDog wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 10:18 am

tabascoboy wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:57 am I hope that an independent Scotland would be open to disenchanted areas of England joining it...

Like London?

Many places except London more like

I was more alluding to Biffer's point above - most of North England are Brexit and Tory voting, not exactly in line with the Scottish populace on the whole.

PornDog wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 10:23 am

tabascoboy wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 10:20 am

PornDog wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 10:18 am



Like London?

Many places except London more like

I was more alluding to Biffer's point above - most of North England are Brexit and Tory voting, not exactly in line with the Scottish populace on the whole.

I was only being half serious but within larger areas there were pockets of "resistance" to Brexit. Would love it if my town seceded from the UK to join Scotland...whilst acknowledging the impracticality

PornDog wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 10:18 am

Fair enough There would still have to be a huge amount of commerce that crosses it every day though?

Yeah, but as I say, there's space to build the facilities required for border commerce checks and processing , which is part of the problem at the channel ports - lack of space. There's be major ones on the A1, A7, A68 and M74/M6, some minor ones elsewhere and potentially I'd suggest some very small facilities for known freight vehicle use only on some minor roads, those points otherwise being car only.

PornDog wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 10:18 am Like London?

If London wants to go it alone, going as an independent city state is more likely to work. But it relies so heavily on the surrounding areas for housing, workers, food, water, electricity etc that it's not realistic.

This from a Political Editor at The Times

Does anyone know for certain the limits of the monarchy's constitutional power in this regard? How many attempts to form a working government does he have to put up with before saying 'I do not believe the current parliament can form a stable government so we will have a general election?'

Peston often talks a lot of shite, but this thread is fairly accurate

PornDog wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:24 am The biggest problem facing an independent Scotland and EU membership is the exact same one now facing Northern Ireland - the border. Unless there is a sea change in England and a complete u-turn on the extremist brexit ideology then there would have to be a hard border between England and Scotland (or at least a significantly harder border than the completely transparent one that currently exists). That could potentially have a devastating effect on commerce, industry and of course the border communities.

Scottish independence means as things stand there'll be a hard border between Scotland/England. It's also not the same as in Ireland though. The Ireland/Northern Ireland border is unworkable, all the infrastructure and communities that straddle it make it physically impossible. The politics make it impossible too, the DUP wanting checkpoints and military patrols (for them what Brexit was about, although they never said it), and the some version of the IRA definitely attacking any of that infrastructure. In contrast a full scale border wall could be put up between Scotland/England, it would pass through less infrastructure and the politics doesn't involve organised violence, border communities mainly on the east coast would pay a heavy price though, but even there the border follows a natural landmark (the river Tweed) unlike NI's border.

I can see a united Ireland very soon, I can't see an independent Scotland coming in my lifetime. NI has a constitutional mechanism to unite with Ireland, through Brexit the GFA has been heavily stress tested and the GFA became stronger, it is supported and even demanded by the US and EU. This was when many of the Brexiter arguments about small nations in the EU not mattering first fell apart, there's a lot of accounts of different people on the UK side (as wide ranging as May and Cummings) not understanding how Brexit had become mainly about Ireland/NI and not understanding why Ireland mattered. There is also a large and politically organised Irish community in America, which means any US president around for Irish unification gains political capital. All these countries that made sure the GFA remained unchanged are also the UK's main allies. The GFA condition for NI consent to Irish unification is a simple majority, the GFA even defines how often a once in a generation referendum can be held (every 7 years). Once there's one referendum on unification, there'll be one every 7 years (because the conditions for holding a poll are unlikely to have changed once the first is granted).

None of this applies with Scotland. In international law Scotland is part of the UK and cannot leave without the consent of the UK government. Unionists are making a mistake relying on that though (the Tory strategy is now to ignore Scotland and the SNP), because the core Scottish nationalist argument, that Scotland could be like Norway/Denmark/Ireland, is true. Pre-Brexit the Tories seemed more aware of nationalist concerns, and were talking about things like electoral reform/House of Lords reform/federalism. That would've been the next Cameron project after he won which the EU referendum, but even the people that did end up winning that referendum (Johnson, Hannan and others) were supporting it. That would've killed a lot of nationalist momentum, because a lot of it can be boiled down to being ruled by (Tory) governments they never voted for. If Labour come to power and maintain the Tory position of ignoring Scottish nationalism and insisting on the status quo (which is possible), then Scottish nationalism could remain strong even through a period of Labour rule (something which wasn't possible under Blair/Brown when Scots were voting Labour). Potentially there's then a situation similar to 19th century Ireland, when Ireland kept sending nationalist MPs to Westminster and Home Rule kept being defeated in the Commons or Lords. A situation like that could easily last decades until there's real bitterness (in Ireland's case ending in violence).

Biffer wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 10:38 am

PornDog wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 10:18 am

Fair enough There would still have to be a huge amount of commerce that crosses it every day though?

Yeah, but as I say, there's space to build the facilities required for border commerce checks and processing , which is part of the problem at the channel ports - lack of space. There's be major ones on the A1, A7, A68 and M74/M6, some minor ones elsewhere and potentially I'd suggest some very small facilities for known freight vehicle use only on some minor roads, those points otherwise being car only.

The practicalities aren't the only hurdle though. While you may not have a DUP, and the situation would be fundamentally different (right now NI is stuck between two mandates, which Scotland potentially wouldn't be), there would remain a huge amount of political hay to feed disruption.

Which I guess goes back to having a plan in place beforehand to help minimise those disruptive efforts.

Biffer wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 10:45 am Does anyone know for certain the limits of the monarchy's constitutional power in this regard? How many attempts to form a working government does he have to put up with before saying 'I do not believe the current parliament can form a stable government so we will have a general election?'

Infinate. King Charles isn't stupid, the monarchy erodes in power when they start trying this nonsense. It's not up to them.

PornDog wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 11:05 am

Biffer wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 10:38 am

PornDog wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 10:18 am

Fair enough There would still have to be a huge amount of commerce that crosses it every day though?

Yeah, but as I say, there's space to build the facilities required for border commerce checks and processing , which is part of the problem at the channel ports - lack of space. There's be major ones on the A1, A7, A68 and M74/M6, some minor ones elsewhere and potentially I'd suggest some very small facilities for known freight vehicle use only on some minor roads, those points otherwise being car only.

The practicalities aren't the only hurdle though. While you may not have a DUP, and the situation would be fundamentally different (right now NI is stuck between two mandates, which Scotland potentially wouldn't be), there would remain a huge amount of political hay to feed disruption.

Which I guess goes back to having a plan in place beforehand to help minimise those disruptive efforts.

This is usual bullshit though, isn't it. Focus on the how easy the really easy bit is (building stuff) ignore the difficult stuff (like suddenly putting a hard border between our biggest (by far) trading partner.)

I like neeps wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 11:11 am

Biffer wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 10:45 am Does anyone know for certain the limits of the monarchy's constitutional power in this regard? How many attempts to form a working government does he have to put up with before saying 'I do not believe the current parliament can form a stable government so we will have a general election?'

Infinate. King Charles isn't stupid, the monarchy erodes in power when they start trying this nonsense. It's not up to them.

The most King Charles could do would be to suggest to the PM during their weekly briefing that they ought to consider their position and question the extent to which they are able to form a Government, but he couldn't take any action in public and certainly couldn't exercise any constitutional powers, even if he has them.

PornDog wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 11:05 am

Biffer wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 10:38 am

PornDog wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 10:18 am

Fair enough There would still have to be a huge amount of commerce that crosses it every day though?

Yeah, but as I say, there's space to build the facilities required for border commerce checks and processing , which is part of the problem at the channel ports - lack of space. There's be major ones on the A1, A7, A68 and M74/M6, some minor ones elsewhere and potentially I'd suggest some very small facilities for known freight vehicle use only on some minor roads, those points otherwise being car only.

The practicalities aren't the only hurdle though. While you may not have a DUP, and the situation would be fundamentally different (right now NI is stuck between two mandates, which Scotland potentially wouldn't be), there would remain a huge amount of political hay to feed disruption.

Which I guess goes back to having a plan in place beforehand to help minimise those disruptive efforts.

oh yeah, absolutely they're not the only hurdle. But it's difficult to know what the hurdles will be in five years time because the UK is such a shitshow. What will the UK's trading arrangement with the EU be in five years time? Who fucking knows? Personally the EFTA route as a halfway house, allowing us a bilateral arrangement with the UK as well as potentially having access to the single market without being in the customs union. I think accession to EFTA might be able to happen relatively quickly. I'd then be looking for us to move over time to closer alignment with the EU, joining EEA, potentially eventually the customs union and Schengen before full membership is attained. I Know it's not as simple as that, but this idea that it's a digital situation that's full EU membership and a hard border with RUK, or on our own with no trade agreements and supplicant to RUK, isn't true.

Looks like Kwarteng has been given the Spanish Archer, wont be enough to save that useless shitwitch in number 10, but its a step.

ASMO wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 11:30 am Looks like Kwarteng has been given the Spanish Archer, wont be enough to save that useless shitwitch in number 10, but its a step.

Her authority has been totally shot to pieces - she was 1st choice (as PM) by quite a small number of Tory MPs and now the backbenchers know they can tell her what to do and when. Just a matter of time until she is ditched.

Ovals wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 11:39 am

ASMO wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 11:30 am Looks like Kwarteng has been given the Spanish Archer, wont be enough to save that useless shitwitch in number 10, but its a step.

Her authority has been totally shot to pieces - she was 1st choice (as PM) by quite a small number of Tory MPs and now the backbenchers know they can tell her what to do and when. Just a matter of time until she is ditched.

Sunak had more support from MPs than Dizzy, from the 1st to the final round of ballots; it was only in the membership she won the Leadership

Ovals wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 11:39 am

ASMO wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 11:30 am Looks like Kwarteng has been given the Spanish Archer, wont be enough to save that useless shitwitch in number 10, but its a step.

Her authority has been totally shot to pieces - she was 1st choice (as PM) by quite a small number of Tory MPs and now the backbenchers know they can tell her what to do and when. Just a matter of time until she is ditched.

Do you think she gave him a consolation shag before sacking him?

As they are essentially of one (very small) mind, and he was implementing the plans she announced in her campaign, there is no way she can distance herself from her own budget. She's toast.

Ovals wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 11:39 am

ASMO wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 11:30 am Looks like Kwarteng has been given the Spanish Archer, wont be enough to save that useless shitwitch in number 10, but its a step.

Her authority has been totally shot to pieces - she was 1st choice (as PM) by quite a small number of Tory MPs and now the backbenchers know they can tell her what to do and when. Just a matter of time until she is ditched.

She has, in fact, confounded some expectations and lasted longer than a lettuce. So, in terms of how long she'll last, what are we talking here, mushrooms, aubergine?

It's mental, he has clearly been deeply unqualified and out of his depth but this is equally down to Truss, and she surely can't be allowed to continue as PM as a part of this whole shitcart.

Kwarteng second shortest-serving UK chancellor

It means Kwarteng is the second shortest-serving UK chancellor on record.

The shortest serving chancellor, Iain Macleod, died of a heart attack 30 days after taking the job in 1970.

Since 2019, the UK has had four chancellors, including Nadhim Zahawi who served the third shortest tenure with 63 days during a short-lived reshuffle under Boris Johnson, and Sajid Javid who served 204 days - the fourth shortest tenure since the Second World War.

Fucking hell...

tabascoboy wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 11:53 am It's mental, he has clearly been deeply unqualified and out of his depth but this is equally down to Truss, and she surely can't be allowed to continue as PM as a part of this whole shitcart.

She's going thru the standard playbook of responses; they tried blaming external influences, & then blaming the market. Those didn't work, & her MPs are demanding blood, so she has to sack the Minister; this was suggested after the dire reception at the 1922 Committee.

She still has to convince her MPs that she won't do any more stupid shit, & she will have to start by appointing a decent replacement, rolling back the idiocy, & presenting a new Budget, with the OBR report, & then we'll see how the markets react, to see if she retains any credibility.

tabascoboy wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 11:53 am It's mental, he has clearly been deeply unqualified and out of his depth but this is equally down to Truss, and she surely can't be allowed to continue as PM as a part of this whole shitcart.

Kwarteng second shortest-serving UK chancellor

It means Kwarteng is the second shortest-serving UK chancellor on record.

The shortest serving chancellor, Iain Macleod, died of a heart attack 30 days after taking the job in 1970.

Since 2019, the UK has had four chancellors, including Nadhim Zahawi who served the third shortest tenure with 63 days during a short-lived reshuffle under Boris Johnson, and Sajid Javid who served 204 days - the fourth shortest tenure since the Second World War.

Fucking hell...

If the UK was one of businesses these arseholes are so in thrall to, and they'd caused this much of a fuck up to their business after a few days in office, the CEO, the chair and whole board would resign.

I've seen that the new idea from MP's is a Sunak - Mordaunt team in some combination of PM- Deputy PM - Chancellor

Sunak PM - Mordaunt Deputy

Mordaunt PM - Sunak Chancellor.

It shows how bad shit has got in the last few weeks that this now looks like a possible way forward...

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 12:04 pm

tabascoboy wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 11:53 am It's mental, he has clearly been deeply unqualified and out of his depth but this is equally down to Truss, and she surely can't be allowed to continue as PM as a part of this whole shitcart.

Kwarteng second shortest-serving UK chancellor

It means Kwarteng is the second shortest-serving UK chancellor on record.

The shortest serving chancellor, Iain Macleod, died of a heart attack 30 days after taking the job in 1970.

Since 2019, the UK has had four chancellors, including Nadhim Zahawi who served the third shortest tenure with 63 days during a short-lived reshuffle under Boris Johnson, and Sajid Javid who served 204 days - the fourth shortest tenure since the Second World War.

Fucking hell...

If the UK was one of businesses these arseholes are so in thrall to, and they'd caused this much of a fuck up to their business after a few days in office, the CEO, the chair and whole board would resign.

Comes back to brexit being a steaming turd. Until the extremists will accept some compromises being Chancellor is impossible.