NPR

_Os_ wrote: ↑Tue Sep 27, 2022 8:31 am Some are saying the UK is turning into an emerging market. It's obviously not (it's not high growth with favourable demographics), but is it even behaving like an emerging market?

During the Jacob Zuma era, a place man called Des van Rooyen was made finance minister, the market reaction was extremely negative, and the Rand immediately dropped 5% against the $. He was in on Friday and fitted up in concrete boots and gone by Monday, earning him the nickname "weekend special". In his place Zuma selected someone the markets had more faith in but wasn't a Zuma ally.

If the UK was actually behaving like an emerging market, Truss would now dismiss KamiKwazi, and beg Sunak to come back because that is the surest way to regain market confidence. Jacob Zuma and the ANC understood this.

But that's not going to happen, and the BoE has limited room to do anything without sending ordinary middle class families into poverty. So instead the markets are going to hammer the £, on and off for two months, then KamiKwazi will report back at the end of November. He's also doubled down and made clear he's committed to further tax cuts (funded by debt?). It's total madness, could end up the most damaging speech in UK political history. The £ is definitely going below the $ and Euro if this holds, but what does a currency crisis look like in a reserve currency? Possible doom loop where the volatility itself creates more volatility? Can't see it helping the City's position.

Lobby wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 11:29 am

I like neeps wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 11:11 am

Biffer wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 10:45 am Does anyone know for certain the limits of the monarchy's constitutional power in this regard? How many attempts to form a working government does he have to put up with before saying 'I do not believe the current parliament can form a stable government so we will have a general election?'

Infinate. King Charles isn't stupid, the monarchy erodes in power when they start trying this nonsense. It's not up to them.

The most King Charles could do would be to suggest to the PM during their weekly briefing that they ought to consider their position and question the extent to which they are able to form a Government, but he couldn't take any action in public and certainly couldn't exercise any constitutional powers, even if he has them.

PornDog wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:29 am

Lobby wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 9:11 am

Slick wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 8:18 am

Well I think this hits the nail on the head actually.

Brexit, Boris and now this mess were all meant to move the dial on Indy, but haven't really. It's just a personal view but I can see the Indy bubble beginning to deflate and this nonsense of the next GE being a defacto referendum and the very real probability of the next UK government being Labour has the capacity to put it on the back foot for at least the next decade.

It seems to me that those pro Indy are made up a majority of folk that just don't care about the impact or haven't the capacity to realise it and a minority who do get it but think it is worth it in the short to medium term to look after ourselves, which is fair enough. I think the only way to move that dial and get towards the 65%-70% in favour, which I think should be the minimum, is to start being honest about the future. At one end you have the "independence is the answer to everything and we will be rich beyond our wildest dreams" to " we will end up on the scrapheap", when of course the answer is somewhere between, but more on the hurt and pain end.

I just don't understand how the SNP expect people who are against at the moment to vote for it when we know, and they know, there is absolutely no credible plan in place after 12 years, none at all. Even basic questions are not being addressed in favour of protecting what they have. How ever bad things are for the UK at the moment, the option of going it alone without and real idea of what that means just seems crazy. There is also the issue that by just about every metric Scotland has been going backwards with this government and the glaring reality that below Sturgeon (way out in front) and Forbes there is absolutely no talent, little intelligence and close to zero statesmanship or statecraft - much as I admire Sturgeon in some ways, I can't see her leading an independent country.

Being a small independent country in Europe actually excites me but I need honesty, I need answers about our new relationship with our biggest, by far, trading partner, what we can realistically expect our lives to look like for the next 10 years after. I'd also like some kind of admission that the current SG would be massively out of their depth, and they would look to form a coalition of politicians and experienced civil servants to take us on that journey.

The most pertinent lesson from Brexit for Scottish independence is surely that leaving a political and economic union is incredibly complicated and difficult, and will have all sorts of unintended consequences. If the UK leaving the EU after just over 40 years (of a not always particularly close union) is such a clusterfuck, Scotland leaving the UK after about 300 years of (a much closer) union is going to be several times more complex and difficult, especially if the SNP refuses to prepare a realistic plan for exit (and we have all seen how well that has gone for Brexiteers).

Realistically, even if Scotland votes to leave, it will likely take decades to sort out before Scotland can contemplate joining the EU.

I don't think you can use the Brexit clusterfuck as a yardstick for Scotland, after all the Tories wont be in charge of it. No matter what reservations Scots may have about the quality and experience of their politicians on the international stage, they could not possibly be anywhere near as remotely deluded and incompetent as the Tories.

But you are dead right, it wont be plain sailing and viable plans have to be in place long before any action is taken.

I like neeps wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 12:21 pm

Lobby wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 11:29 am

I like neeps wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 11:11 am

Infinate. King Charles isn't stupid, the monarchy erodes in power when they start trying this nonsense. It's not up to them.

The most King Charles could do would be to suggest to the PM during their weekly briefing that they ought to consider their position and question the extent to which they are able to form a Government, but he couldn't take any action in public and certainly couldn't exercise any constitutional powers, even if he has them.

King Charles laughing at Truss in their last meeting was fairly radical for a monarch which didn't get much pop.

Anyway, chancellors will continue to go after a year or so until brexit is reversed.

Torquemada 1420 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 12:20 pm Meantime

Lobby wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 12:22 pm Chris Philp also sacked.

It’s rumoured that ‘senior Tories’ are planning to visit Dizzy Lizzie next week to tell her to resign. 1922 Committee are also going to set aside rules protecting PM from confidence vote for a year, after a deluge of letters from Tory MPs.

Hal Jordan wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 12:25 pm

Torquemada 1420 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 12:20 pm Meantime

This sort of stupid cuntery doesn't even get me cross anymore. It's priced into the general despair and anger at everything this sorry collection of zealots, whores and thieves do.

Hal Jordan wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 12:25 pm

Torquemada 1420 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 12:20 pm Meantime

This sort of stupid cuntery doesn't even get me cross anymore. It's priced into the general despair and anger at everything this sorry collection of zealots, whores and thieves do.

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 12:22 pm and the laughable suggestion that the rUK government will pay pensions.

Lobby wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 12:22 pm Chris Philp also sacked.

It’s rumoured that ‘senior Tories’ are planning to visit Dizzy Lizzie next week to tell her to resign. 1922 Committee are also going to set aside rules protecting PM from confidence vote for a year, after a deluge of letters from Tory MPs.

tabascoboy wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 11:44 am

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 12:23 pm

I like neeps wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 12:21 pm

Lobby wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 11:29 am

The most King Charles could do would be to suggest to the PM during their weekly briefing that they ought to consider their position and question the extent to which they are able to form a Government, but he couldn't take any action in public and certainly couldn't exercise any constitutional powers, even if he has them.

King Charles laughing at Truss in their last meeting was fairly radical for a monarch which didn't get much pop.

Anyway, chancellors will continue to go after a year or so until brexit is reversed.

Can't see how this stands up to Sunak resigning over Boris' behaviour, particularly given the government is about to revert to his economic plans

Torquemada 1420 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 12:27 pm

Hal Jordan wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 12:25 pm

Torquemada 1420 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 12:20 pm Meantime

This sort of stupid cuntery doesn't even get me cross anymore. It's priced into the general despair and anger at everything this sorry collection of zealots, whores and thieves do.

It's almost fascinating to see how delusionally arrogant they continue to be that such utter tripe is spouted. I'm waiting for one to officially declare that the Earth is flat and black is white.

PS It's okay to be criss too

Nobody in their right mind would sack the bomb disposal guy. Right?

When it comes to getting the politically dirty and dangerous jobs done, U.K. Health Secretary Jeremy Hunt is the man to turn to.

In the more than four years since he took the brief, Hunt has pushed through hugely unpopular health care reforms and shielded his prime ministers from the toxic fallout.

He deftly avoided the ax over months of unprecedented doctors’ strikes and survived a media maelstrom after the U.K. National Health Service's outdated systems were paralyzed by a global cyber attack.

...

“He’s the great survivor … the bomb disposal expert,” said Liberal Democrat former Health Minister Norman Lamb. “He’s taken a lot of flak for the government and there’s a case from the Tory perspective to let him continue to be the shock absorber,” he said.

...

Hal Jordan wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 1:22 pm Being manager of Watford looks like a lifetime gig compared to the Chancellor's job at the moment.

One Truss ally suggested that scrapping the corporation tax plan, if agreed, might be presented as “a readjustment given global market conditions”. The government has been keen to blame the market turmoil since the “mini” Budget on global factors rather than accept it stems from UK specific issues.
There was no consensus in Truss’s team about what precise elements of Kwarteng’s fiscal statement should be dropped and how soon. “The U-turn has been briefed out before the policy was decided,” said one official.
Some government insiders blamed the chaos on a lack of senior officials in Number 10, with several of Truss’s aides on holiday and Kwarteng in Washington. One civil servant described the mood in Number 10 on Thursday as “grim”.
The lack of experience among Truss’s team was highlighted by MPs who claimed it was not equipped for a crisis. “She has no good advisers,” said one Whitehall official.
One civil servant said there was “a lack of decision-making in Number 10” and paralysis across Whitehall. “There’s inexperience and naivety in [Truss’s] team not realising what a mess they’ve created.”
Another official added: “They simply don’t know how to govern”.

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 12:22 pm Brexit is the yardstick - Britain has a large civil service and diplomatic corps that got completely overwhelmed by leaving a 40 year union, leaving a 300 year old one (that is much deeper) without most of that will sink the Scottish Government for at least a decade.
Not to mention that the SNP are perfectly capable of spinning fantasies up there with any Redwood or Baker - see the constant hedging on currency and the laughable suggestion that the rUK government will pay pensions.

Torquemada 1420 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 1:23 pm I don't know how much of this you can see behind FT's paywall:
https://www.ft.com/content/7b90ec2e-d57 ... 437f8659ff

but the short of it is the water cos were privatised with zero debt and fed another £1.5bn of tax payer money to make improvements. Since then, they have borrowed at least £53bn and paid in excess of £72bn in dividends. Significant amount of our billing money is now simply being used to service the debt.

Biffer wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 1:56 pm

Torquemada 1420 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 1:23 pm I don't know how much of this you can see behind FT's paywall:
https://www.ft.com/content/7b90ec2e-d57 ... 437f8659ff

but the short of it is the water cos were privatised with zero debt and fed another £1.5bn of tax payer money to make improvements. Since then, they have borrowed at least £53bn and paid in excess of £72bn in dividends. Significant amount of our billing money is now simply being used to service the debt.

I am very glad Scottish Water is still in public ownership. The water companies are both a literal and metaphorical shitshow.

PornDog wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 1:54 pm

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 12:22 pm Brexit is the yardstick - Britain has a large civil service and diplomatic corps that got completely overwhelmed by leaving a 40 year union, leaving a 300 year old one (that is much deeper) without most of that will sink the Scottish Government for at least a decade.
Not to mention that the SNP are perfectly capable of spinning fantasies up there with any Redwood or Baker - see the constant hedging on currency and the laughable suggestion that the rUK government will pay pensions.

Not to diminish the size of the tasks (both real and potential), but you seem to be absolving the Tories of their role in the clusterfuck and blaming it instead on the task just being too big a one to achieve/ the civil service. They've had no clear direction from incompetent leadership - the most competent and best served civil servants in the world would fail at organising a piss up in a brewery under those conditions.

While the SNP are no doubt capable of their own incompetencies, I refuse to believe they could come anywhere close to the scale of this generation of Tories (plenty of rational Tories in the past, and I'm sure present, they have just lost control of the party)!

As for pensions, while it will no doubt be another political football, I really don't see it as being the major obstacle that others do. My mother hasn't worked in the UK since the late 60's and yet still receives a very small portion of a UK pension every month. You get paid out of the pot you paid into, inevitably many people will end up being paid from two different pension pots, though not a full share from either, but so be it.

dpedin wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 2:24 pm I thought Truss was going to burst into tears after the 4th question and that's why she had to run out of the room. I suspect she might be having a breakdown of some sorts behind the scenes.

The 9 mins of press conference has done nothing to help her position and indeed will have made things much much worse. She is toast and has been since the 'not a budget' budget. Strong rumours that the men in grey suits are going to talk to her this weekend or next week. The reality is the Tories are completely boxed in now - keep Truss and polls plummet even further, they lose election and markets will crash further, get rid of her and they either run another leadership election which the public will hate and want them out or else create some form of 'unity cabinet' and the Tory membership cry foul and then almost everyone will want a general election.

I wouldn't be surprised if they get rid of Truss, have an interim leadership around Mordaunt and Sunak and soon thereafter call a General election on the basis that Labour will then inherit the complete shitshow that they have created and the Tories then try and regroup for next election and cleanse themselves of the far right, dark money funded 'Think Tanks' that have hijacked the Conservative Party. I could see the Tory Party disintegrating at that point with the right wing Brexiteer nutters looking to Farage et al to recreate some version of UKIP, buoyed on by the apparent success of right wing parties elsewhere ie Italy.

Whatever the Tories do now they are completely fecked.

dpedin wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 2:24 pm I wouldn't be surprised if they get rid of Truss, have an interim leadership around Mordaunt and Sunak and soon thereafter call a General election on the basis that Labour will then inherit the complete shitshow that they have created and the Tories then try and regroup for next election and cleanse themselves of the far right, dark money funded 'Think Tanks' that have hijacked the Conservative Party.

dpedin wrote: ↑Fri Oct 14, 2022 2:24 pm I thought Truss was going to burst into tears after the 4th question and that's why she had to run out of the room. I suspect she might be having a breakdown of some sorts behind the scenes.

The 9 mins of press conference has done nothing to help her position and indeed will have made things much much worse. She is toast and has been since the 'not a budget' budget. Strong rumours that the men in grey suits are going to talk to her this weekend or next week. The reality is the Tories are completely boxed in now - keep Truss and polls plummet even further, they lose election and markets will crash further, get rid of her and they either run another leadership election which the public will hate and want them out or else create some form of 'unity cabinet' and the Tory membership cry foul and then almost everyone will want a general election.

I wouldn't be surprised if they get rid of Truss, have an interim leadership around Mordaunt and Sunak and soon thereafter call a General election on the basis that Labour will then inherit the complete shitshow that they have created and the Tories then try and regroup for next election and cleanse themselves of the far right, dark money funded 'Think Tanks' that have hijacked the Conservative Party. I could see the Tory Party disintegrating at that point with the right wing Brexiteer nutters looking to Farage et al to recreate some version of UKIP, buoyed on by the apparent success of right wing parties elsewhere ie Italy.

Whatever the Tories do now they are completely fecked.