NPR

Ymx wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 3:27 pm Moderna jab for me. Just done.

From what I’ve read above, it’s been nice knowing you!

COVID-19: Mayor of London Sadiq Khan declares major incident over 'huge surge' of Omicron cases

The mayor of London has declared a major incident in the capital over the "huge surge" of Omicron cases and an increase in hospital admissions.

Sadiq Khan said he has been meeting with colleagues from the NHS, councils and the fire service about the rise in infections of the COVID variant, with more than 10,000 new cases reported nationwide today.

While no new measures have been announced, he said: "In the last 24 hours, we have had the largest number of new cases since the pandemic began, more than 26,000.

"Hospital admissions are going up but also staff absences are going up by massive levels, so I have taken the decision, along with our partners, to declare a major incident."

https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-may ... s-12499021

Today, a new analysis suggested both that the hospitalization rate in South Africa may have been reduced by as much as 91 percent, compared to the country’s last wave, and that the death rate among those hospitalized may also have fallen by two-thirds — two points that, taken together, suggest as much as a 25-fold or even 30-fold reduction in mortality. On the same day, a report produced by the Imperial College of London suggested there was no clear indication that, among early British cases, Omicron was any less severe at all — though that analysis was based on just a few dozen cases
….



If you assume that these numbers are correct, it would mean a 30-times reduction in fatality relative to previous waves, which is really something. That brings us down to seasonal flu.

Well, it goes back to this fundamental problem. If Omicron is milder, then it will be milder everywhere, irrespective of population or irrespective of the vaccine coverage or prior infection. If it’s not particularly milder itself or only marginally so, and what we are observing here with the South African population is a reflection of the fact that essentially the entire population has been exposed or vaccinated or both, then obviously that’s not portable to any other place. It’s a really major question. And sadly, I don’t think we can extrapolate anything from South Africa, really. We don’t actually even know the vaccine status of the hospitalized.

JM2K6 wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 4:46 pm Always fun to see a lengthy article posted and then someone replying within a couple of minutes cherry picking some quotes from the first part of it

Here, have another one

Well, it goes back to this fundamental problem. If Omicron is milder, then it will be milder everywhere, irrespective of population or irrespective of the vaccine coverage or prior infection. If it’s not particularly milder itself or only marginally so, and what we are observing here with the South African population is a reflection of the fact that essentially the entire population has been exposed or vaccinated or both, then obviously that’s not portable to any other place. It’s a really major question. And sadly, I don’t think we can extrapolate anything from South Africa, really. We don’t actually even know the vaccine status of the hospitalized.

JM2K6 wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 5:12 pm Natural immunity does not last that long, you can get reinfected by omicron, two jabs isn't that effective against omicron and our booster levels are not yet good enough

There's a reason why the experts keep saying the same thing

JM2K6 wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 5:12 pm Natural immunity does not last that long, you can get reinfected by omicron, two jabs isn't that effective against omicron and our booster levels are not yet good enough

There's a reason why the experts keep saying the same thing

JM2K6 wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 5:12 pm Natural immunity does not last that long, you can get reinfected by omicron, two jabs isn't that effective against omicron and our booster levels are not yet good enough

There's a reason why the experts keep saying the same thing

Ymx wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 6:07 pm Well certainly the UK is in a much better place in terms of immunisation and antibodies than SA. I doubt that’s even a discussion. 90+% v 70% I think I read earlier.

The SA population median age is younger. Whilst from what I read the relevant base health levels are better in the UK.

If the difference is really 30 times in a relevant size study. Then even given the above it’s quite a stretch to say we can’t read anything in to it.

I appreciate the parallels with delta where countries (UK/US) had varying impact. But I don’t think they amounted to 30 times.

It’s almost like some people are hell bent to discard any positive news or stats. “Throw the whole lot out, look here’s a slight difference which renders all of it meaningless”. Rather than taking it as very encouraging but with expectations there will be some differences.

I almost wonder what some people are actually hoping to emerge from this? It feels like some want it to be worse. And want to stay in perpetual masked lockdown. I’m sure no one would be that messed up though.

petej wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 5:49 pm

JM2K6 wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 5:12 pm Natural immunity does not last that long, you can get reinfected by omicron, two jabs isn't that effective against omicron and our booster levels are not yet good enough

There's a reason why the experts keep saying the same thing

Natural immunity varies wildly. The immune system isn't just antibodies. Really depends on success measures, for me. I don't care about cases but do care about hospitalizations, deaths etc .. if you can get loads of cases but low number needing treatment or dying then I'm happy for measures and restrictions to be lifted.

JM2K6 wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 5:12 pm Natural immunity does not last that long, you can get reinfected by omicron, two jabs isn't that effective against omicron and our booster levels are not yet good enough

There's a reason why the experts keep saying the same thing

JM2K6 wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 6:23 pm

Ymx wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 6:07 pm Well certainly the UK is in a much better place in terms of immunisation and antibodies than SA. I doubt that’s even a discussion. 90+% v 70% I think I read earlier.

The SA population median age is younger. Whilst from what I read the relevant base health levels are better in the UK.

If the difference is really 30 times in a relevant size study. Then even given the above it’s quite a stretch to say we can’t read anything in to it.

I appreciate the parallels with delta where countries (UK/US) had varying impact. But I don’t think they amounted to 30 times.

It’s almost like some people are hell bent to discard any positive news or stats. “Throw the whole lot out, look here’s a slight difference which renders all of it meaningless”. Rather than taking it as very encouraging but with expectations there will be some differences.

I almost wonder what some people are actually hoping to emerge from this? It feels like some want it to be worse. And want to stay in perpetual masked lockdown. I’m sure no one would be that messed up though.

The whole point is that it's a load of "if"s that you're treating as "definitely". You're willing to listen to someone when they mention some stats you like the sound of, but ignore them when they say we can't draw conclusions yet and that a simple comparison would be wrong.

It'll be fucking great if Omicron just isn't that bad compared to the original strain, but like they all say we're just going to have to wait and see.

It'll be fucking great if Omicron just isn't that bad compared to the original strain

Ymx wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 6:44 pmthe doomers are writing off strong positive indicators with a "well its different, I can't or won't read anything in to that".

Sandstorm wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 5:47 pm

JM2K6 wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 5:12 pm Natural immunity does not last that long, you can get reinfected by omicron, two jabs isn't that effective against omicron and our booster levels are not yet good enough

There's a reason why the experts keep saying the same thing

Is it because they all want to fuck over the South African tourist season?

Lemoentjie wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 6:57 pm I have no idea why you think I'm a conspiracy theorist. I'm vaccinated, I wear a mask in places where it's required (when I don't forget).

Ignoring that 65% of Covid admissions in London are people who are in hospital for reasons that are not Covid, means you can't look honestly at the data.

convoluted wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 6:33 pm

JM2K6 wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 5:12 pm Natural immunity does not last that long, you can get reinfected by omicron, two jabs isn't that effective against omicron and our booster levels are not yet good enough

There's a reason why the experts keep saying the same thing

Are these 'experts' of which you speak the exact same ones who assured you that the current pestilence was entirely natural and in no way connected to the Wuhan lab ... ????

Hal Jordan wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 8:05 pm What the fuck were his and his protest movement brother's parents up to?

petej wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 8:20 pm

convoluted wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 6:33 pm

JM2K6 wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 5:12 pm Natural immunity does not last that long, you can get reinfected by omicron, two jabs isn't that effective against omicron and our booster levels are not yet good enough

There's a reason why the experts keep saying the same thing

Are these 'experts' of which you speak the exact same ones who assured you that the current pestilence was entirely natural and in no way connected to the Wuhan lab ... ????

Almost certainly natural (as near to absolute as i'm willing to go on anything). Only way the lab is involved is by accident IE accidently getting infected in a visit to a bat cave and bringing it back. Never really understood the arguments between vaccine induced immunity and natural immunity apart from the increased risk from acquiring immunity via infection. Always seemed a bit pointless to me and to describe one as better than the other, does seem stupid when both will produce different outcomes (antibodies and antibody levels and B/T-Cell) reactions in different people.

scientific experts in their own field are inclined to be a pessimistic but as a non-expert i'm allowed to remain cautiously optimistic.

Margin__Walker wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 7:37 pm Piers Corbyn being Piers Corbyn. What a guy.

Happyhooker wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 10:17 pm I had a remarkably unpleasant encounter with a few of his acolytes on the central line earlier this evening. Abusing masked people etc after they'd come from the demo. Transport police were fucking useless.

I genuinely despair at times

Slick wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 11:08 am

Happyhooker wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 10:17 pm I had a remarkably unpleasant encounter with a few of his acolytes on the central line earlier this evening. Abusing masked people etc after they'd come from the demo. Transport police were fucking useless.

I genuinely despair at times

Must have been tempting to get the elbows out, so to speak

TB63 wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 11:32 am

Slick wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 11:08 am

Happyhooker wrote: Sat Dec 18, 2021 10:17 pm I had a remarkably unpleasant encounter with a few of his acolytes on the central line earlier this evening. Abusing masked people etc after they'd come from the demo. Transport police were fucking useless.

I genuinely despair at times

Must have been tempting to get the elbows out, so to speak

That'd get them right in the bollocks..

Biffer wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 10:10 am Vaccination rates in UK (%age of eligible people who have had each shot, i.e. over 12s)

London
1st dose 68%
2nd dose 61%
3rd dose 30%

Scotland
1st dose 91%
2nd dose 83%
3rd dose 81%

South East
1st dose 83%
2nd dose 77%
3rd dose 45%

North West
1st dose 79%
2nd dose 73%
3rd dose 43%

Wales
1st dose 90%
2nd dose 83%
3rd dose 45%

UK
1st dose 89%
2nd dose 81%
3rd dose 42%

London is probably a bit younger, a bit more mixed racially and with large areas of poverty, but it’s still a shocking difference.

No idea what this level of difference will make to transmission, hospitalisation or death. However if you take a down and dirty number of 20% of London’s population, say 1.5 million, half of them catching it and a case hospitalisation rate of 1% instead of 0.3%, that’s an extra 10,000 hospitalisations. There are only 20,000 hospital beds in London.

Pretty sure I’ve used conservative hospitalisation numbers.

(Caveat: there’s something a bit weird in the figures, the rate for England is higher than the rate for any region in England, so there’s something going on with the way figures are allocated).

Uncle fester wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 12:07 pm

Biffer wrote: Sun Dec 19, 2021 10:10 am Vaccination rates in UK (%age of eligible people who have had each shot, i.e. over 12s)

London
1st dose 68%
2nd dose 61%
3rd dose 30%

Scotland
1st dose 91%
2nd dose 83%
3rd dose 81%

South East
1st dose 83%
2nd dose 77%
3rd dose 45%

North West
1st dose 79%
2nd dose 73%
3rd dose 43%

Wales
1st dose 90%
2nd dose 83%
3rd dose 45%

UK
1st dose 89%
2nd dose 81%
3rd dose 42%

London is probably a bit younger, a bit more mixed racially and with large areas of poverty, but it’s still a shocking difference.

No idea what this level of difference will make to transmission, hospitalisation or death. However if you take a down and dirty number of 20% of London’s population, say 1.5 million, half of them catching it and a case hospitalisation rate of 1% instead of 0.3%, that’s an extra 10,000 hospitalisations. There are only 20,000 hospital beds in London.

Pretty sure I’ve used conservative hospitalisation numbers.

(Caveat: there’s something a bit weird in the figures, the rate for England is higher than the rate for any region in England, so there’s something going on with the way figures are allocated).

Unvaccinated in Ireland seem to be disproportionately foreign. Understandable if they are coming from countries where distrust of authorities is somewhat normal, i.e. former Soviet bloc countries.

Maybe a bit of that going on for London too?