NPR

salanya wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 10:59 am Calculon:
It was always a likely step, though it's reduced rather than cancelled - bit of a difference.
But if you're Covid negative and science agrees that you are not going to pass any lurgy on after 7 days then it works for me.

Lots of news coming in of services being cancelled, whether NHS, public transport etc. That seems to be the biggest issue this wave.

I genuinely hope omicron is less severe than delta - any scientifically proven news on this yet?

Yes, mounting evidence in terms of clinical impact. Low rates of hospitalisation thus far in UK and Denmark compliments the South African experience. So we are seeing a further “decoupling” of cases to deaths. Intrinsic severity of the variant is less easy to “prove” but there has been a couple of studies that I know of that has suggested lower infectivity of lung cells.

Here is one of them for some light bedtime reading

https://www.citiid.cam.ac.uk/wp-content ... -PAPER.pdf


With a variant this transmissible a lock down will only delay the spread, so unless the NHS is genuinely about to collapse I don’t think it would be that helpful.

petej wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 11:43 am

Torquemada 1420 wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 11:34 am

salanya wrote: Mon Dec 20, 2021 2:01 pm

You seem obsessed with overweight people. Why ignore smokers, alcoholics, drug users? Or the elderly, who all take up a lot of health services too.

None of these are easy to fix, so perhaps we'll concentrate on the issue of the global pandemic first?

Because being elderly is an election?

Alcoholics and drug users are a rounding error in terms of resource drain on the NHS. Drug users, in particular, are a huge and disproportionate cause of crime.

Smokers. Yeah. You can reasonably level the same accusation with one exception: smoking is generally regarded as an addition. Shovelling pies down one's gullet is not.

While I'm not inclined to be over sympathetic about being grossly overweight the role of the food industry and the impact of heavily/ultra processed foods and the way that interacts with our brains makes these foods very addictive.

Not going to get into this debate here: it's a separate thing from the thread. But a starting point would be to define addiction and then attempt to have a measure for it.

FWIW, people have a CHOICE
1) Buy good value, healthy food stuffs. Make your own meals and eat sensible portions.
2) Buy overly priced junk food which is ready made and/or delivered and eat it in excess quantities.

The latter CHOICE is a combination of stupidity, laziness and greed. Hey. Darwinian evolution. Survival is not mandatory. You want to eat yourself to death, you are probably doing the rest of us (and the planet) a favour eventually by removing yourself from the gene pool. My objection is to the rest of us subsidising to help extend that period of existence before self-selecting removal.

Calculon wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 11:53 am

salanya wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 10:59 am Calculon:
It was always a likely step, though it's reduced rather than cancelled - bit of a difference.
But if you're Covid negative and science agrees that you are not going to pass any lurgy on after 7 days then it works for me.

Lots of news coming in of services being cancelled, whether NHS, public transport etc. That seems to be the biggest issue this wave.

I genuinely hope omicron is less severe than delta - any scientifically proven news on this yet?

Yes, mounting evidence in terms of clinical impact. Low rates of hospitalisation thus far in UK and Denmark compliments the South African experience. So we are seeing a further “decoupling” of cases to deaths. Intrinsic severity of the variant is less easy to “prove” but there has been a couple of studies that I know of that has suggested lower infectivity of lung cells.

Here is one of them for some light bedtime reading

https://www.citiid.cam.ac.uk/wp-content ... -PAPER.pdf


With a variant this transmissible a lock down will only delay the spread, so unless the NHS is genuinely about to collapse I don’t think it would be that helpful.

The NHS is already being stretched in London (where 30% of people remain unvaxxed). Hospitalisations are rising in London, and there are large numbers of staff absences because of people having to isolate, so there are good arguments in favour of some more mitigating action in London to try and reduce and delay the spread of Omicron here.

The rest of the Country has a much better record on vaccinations, so additional restrictions may be less necessary outside London.

Torquemada 1420 wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 11:57 am

petej wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 11:43 am

Torquemada 1420 wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 11:34 am
Because being elderly is an election?

Alcoholics and drug users are a rounding error in terms of resource drain on the NHS. Drug users, in particular, are a huge and disproportionate cause of crime.

Smokers. Yeah. You can reasonably level the same accusation with one exception: smoking is generally regarded as an addition. Shovelling pies down one's gullet is not.

While I'm not inclined to be over sympathetic about being grossly overweight the role of the food industry and the impact of heavily/ultra processed foods and the way that interacts with our brains makes these foods very addictive.

Not going to get into this debate here: it's a separate thing from the thread. But a starting point would be to define addiction and then attempt to have a measure for it.

FWIW, people have a CHOICE
1) Buy good value, healthy food stuffs. Make your own meals and eat sensible portions.
2) Buy overly priced junk food which is ready made and/or delivered and eat it in excess quantities.

The latter CHOICE is a combination of stupidity, laziness and greed. Hey. Darwinian evolution. Survival is not mandatory. You want to eat yourself to death, you are probably doing the rest of us (and the planet) a favour eventually by removing yourself from the gene pool. My objection is to the rest of us subsidising to help extend that period of existence before self-selecting removal.

I would put in on par with smoking as an addiction. Then we might see heavily processed foods being hit with similar labelling and restrictions which should happen and the companies being seen as the pariahs they are.

Well, smokers probably come close to covering the cost of their treatment from the duties on cigarettes. Obese people and drug users less so.

I don't think anyone who is an unhealthy weight should be allowed to call for a lockdown or mandatory vaccination unless they are really trying to lose weight and adopt a healthy lifestyle.

Lastly, make unvaccinated people pay for the cost of their treatment from Covid-19. In my opinion, not being vaccinated is like a refusal of first-line treatment.

Uk cases around 90k per day but the good news is it does look like its peaking at this level (time will tell).

tc27 wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 4:10 pm Uk cases around 90k per day but the good news is it does look like its peaking at this level (time will tell).

London cases on a downward trajectory. Rest of the country probably still due to increase for a few days. Don't need new rules as people will mostly behave and be sensible.

tc27 wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 4:10 pm Uk cases around 90k per day but the good news is it does look like its peaking at this level (time will tell).

I was about to post something on the lines of cases shot up from about 40k a day to about 90k a day about a week ago. Since then they’ve bounced up and down around that level and certainly haven’t been doubling every couple of days from that new higher level.

petej wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 4:36 pm

tc27 wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 4:10 pm Uk cases around 90k per day but the good news is it does look like its peaking at this level (time will tell).

London cases on a downward trajectory. Rest of the country probably still due to increase for a few days. Don't need new rules as people will mostly behave and be sensible.

It’s gone shit mad here (Surrey)!

So many people I know are with it (and not from me).

Quarter of our workforce are out.

More importantly, the Calcutta Cup game looks in jeopardy now with the new Scottish government restrictions on crowds.

Ymx wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 5:54 pm

petej wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 4:36 pm

tc27 wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 4:10 pm Uk cases around 90k per day but the good news is it does look like its peaking at this level (time will tell).

London cases on a downward trajectory. Rest of the country probably still due to increase for a few days. Don't need new rules as people will mostly behave and be sensible.

It’s gone shit mad here (Surrey)!

So many people I know are with it (and not from me).

Quarter of our workforce are out.

Do they count positive lateral flows rather than PCRs does anyone know? I'm finding it hard to think of a friend who currently doesn't have covid.

Hospitalisations jump up 232 and deaths are up to 172, probably a bit of catching up with the numbers but not pretty?

I like neeps wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 6:03 pm

Ymx wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 5:54 pm

petej wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 4:36 pm

London cases on a downward trajectory. Rest of the country probably still due to increase for a few days. Don't need new rules as people will mostly behave and be sensible.

It’s gone shit mad here (Surrey)!

So many people I know are with it (and not from me).

Quarter of our workforce are out.

Do they count positive lateral flows rather than PCRs does anyone know? I'm finding it hard to think of a friend who currently doesn't have covid.

Just PCRs I’m pretty sure.

Highest number of new cases (4 x National average) in Lambeth, S London.
Idiots.

Is the deal with this that if, as is happening, this strain knocks Delta out, and is proven to be much milder, we are near the end?

A lot of ifs and buts obviously

Slick wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 6:42 pm Is the deal with this that if, as is happening, this strain knocks Delta out, and is proven to be much milder, we are near the end?

A lot of ifs and buts obviously

Until the next variant.

Big D wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 6:46 pm

Slick wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 6:42 pm Is the deal with this that if, as is happening, this strain knocks Delta out, and is proven to be much milder, we are near the end?

A lot of ifs and buts obviously

Until the next variant.

So how does it end? Not being facetious

Big D wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 6:46 pm

Slick wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 6:42 pm Is the deal with this that if, as is happening, this strain knocks Delta out, and is proven to be much milder, we are near the end?

A lot of ifs and buts obviously

Until the next variant.

There’s no evidence that Alpha and Beta - the strains that killed 2 million patients and thousands of medical staff is gone for good either.




Merry Christmas

Slick wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 7:01 pm

Big D wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 6:46 pm

Slick wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 6:42 pm Is the deal with this that if, as is happening, this strain knocks Delta out, and is proven to be much milder, we are near the end?

A lot of ifs and buts obviously

Until the next variant.

So how does it end? Not being facetious

We get stronger than Covid through immunity and familiarity and it becomes - for real - “just another flu”

I’m hopeful that’s Summer 2022

Sandstorm wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 7:04 pm

Slick wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 7:01 pm

Big D wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 6:46 pm

Until the next variant.

So how does it end? Not being facetious

We get stronger than Covid through immunity and familiarity and it becomes - for real - “just another flu”

I’m hopeful that’s Summer 2022

Kind of feel like omicron is the beginning of the end for the pandemic and the first endemic variant.

Sandstorm wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 7:04 pm

Slick wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 7:01 pm

Big D wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 6:46 pm

Until the next variant.

So how does it end? Not being facetious

We get stronger than Covid through immunity and familiarity and it becomes - for real - “just another flu”

I’m hopeful that’s Summer 2022

Wish I had your optimism. For a number of reasons this year has been shit even without covid. Further covid restrictions up here at this time of year have summed up the year perfectly.

Slick wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 7:01 pm

Big D wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 6:46 pm

Slick wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 6:42 pm Is the deal with this that if, as is happening, this strain knocks Delta out, and is proven to be much milder, we are near the end?

A lot of ifs and buts obviously

Until the next variant.

So how does it end? Not being facetious

Depends what you mean by end (also not being facetious). Covid19 is going to exist as a human disease permanently. How we adapt to that is a broad societal decision. Some people are already screaming to just let er rip and suck it up. Others want to maintain restrictions at higher levels until 8 billion people are properly vaccinated.

What happens is still dependent on a number of factors, including, but not limited to, global vaccine rollout, mutation of the virus, public perception.

I guess the end is probably when it’s at the point where there are no longer restrictions and when isolation is no longer legally required.

Ymx wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 7:20 pm I guess the end is probably when it’s at the point where there are no longer restrictions and when isolation is no longer legally required.

Unfortunately Boris will introduce your plan to open up with no scientific backing or support at all. Not because Covid is just man-flu.

Sandstorm wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 7:42 pm

Ymx wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 7:20 pm I guess the end is probably when it’s at the point where there are no longer restrictions and when isolation is no longer legally required.

Unfortunately Boris will introduce your plan to open up with no scientific backing or support at all. Not because Covid is just man-flu.

Indeed. I expect there might be three more Boris flip flops, and 3 more boosters until it’s stable.

When will this end? There will be even better and more effective vaccines and medications developed and deployed that will control this and future variations of covid, probably coming on stream in the next 12 months. Some of these will be delivered in pill form and also be able to be stored at room temperature so deployment will be easier. They will also be considerably cheaper and easier to produce. There will also be better drugs coming on line that will deal far better with covid if you get it and respond badly. Remember we developed, manufactured and deployed a number of vaccines for covid in about 12 months, they are safe and fit for purpose but give the scientists a bit more time and they will deliver better and cheaper options. New vaccine development is already well underway and will deliver. We will also see kids being vaccinated shortly and the covid jab will be rolled into the normal school age vaccination programmes. covid will be dealt with in the same way we deal with measles - vaccination and a rapid PH response if we have outbreaks.

At the moment we are trying to stop the NHS be overwhelmed and a large reason for this is the unvaccinated adults. The vast majority of those in ICU are now unvaccinated, a disproportionate % of those hospitalised are unvaccinated. If the 9% of those eligible but unvaccinated, about 6 million folk in UK, were vaccinated we wouldn't be in the mess we are in now. It is the nut job anti vaxxers and anti lock down idiots that are actually perpetuating a lot of this mess.

Bloody Londoners !

Tax rebate if you are vaccinated. That should get most of the 6 million hold-puts down the jab shop.

Booster jab today, Moderna, but with a pamphlet saying I'll need a second jab in 28 days?
Anyone else had that?..

TB63 wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 9:00 pm Booster jab today, Moderna, but with a pamphlet saying I'll need a second jab in 28 days?
Anyone else had that?..

Bin it. No-one has 2 jabs in 28 days.

Shithouse lateral flow test batch I’ve got here. Not enough fucking testing fluid in the bloody vial to actually register on the swab!!

dpedin wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 6:05 pm Hospitalisations jump up 232 and deaths are up to 172, probably a bit of catching up with the numbers but not pretty?

It’s a Tuesday. Tuesdays nearly always have the highest reported figure each week.

To put the number into context, reported deaths are up 0.9% week-on-week and the last time 172 deaths were actually registered in a single day was 1st November. No day in the last month has got above 150 and the average is currently 115. Hospitalisations are up 2.2% but it’s been reported the majority of patients in hospital in London with Omicron were admitted for other reasons, so it may be fair to assume the same elsewhere.

Too early to be sure, but it’s beginning to look like cases may have peaked last Wednesday (the numbers announced each day are reports, not the day tests were taken).

petej wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 7:10 pm

Sandstorm wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 7:04 pm

Slick wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 7:01 pm

So how does it end? Not being facetious

We get stronger than Covid through immunity and familiarity and it becomes - for real - “just another flu”

I’m hopeful that’s Summer 2022

Kind of feel like omicron is the beginning of the end for the pandemic and the first endemic variant.

In a sense this has already ended in many countries. The reason that a country like Nigeria has fully vaxxed less than 2% of it's population is to a large part due to lack of demand. The risk of getting COVID-19 just isn't an issue for most people. They have other concerns that are more important, one of them being malaria. Many African countries are in similar position. For Europe this might happen as soon as this summer. Ironically China where it began might also be the last country where it ends, thanks to their zero covid strategy.

I’m sure China will somehow come out of this miraculously “unscathed”. They just need to figure out the correct dialogue. Probably claim there’s is a super vaccine, 100% coverage.

Or change their test equipment to not show omicron.

They have been very effective at suppressing the virus, but a zero covid strategy isn't sustainable long term. When the rest of the world opens up the cost will be too great, both to the image of China and the economy. The CCP has repeatedly contrasted their way of dealing with the virus with what the West has done, obviously to emphasize the superiority of the Chinese system to their people. So how they then sell the end of zero covid to the same public will be interesting. I suspect they will manage it OK since they are experts at managing/manipulating the Chinese public.

Don't know enough about testing issues but this guy is suggesting that plateauing of cases is more a function of testing capacity than it is of case number stabilising. If he is correct then the NHS is going to take a battering unless hospitalisation rates are much lower for omicron.

dpedin wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:40 am

Don't know enough about testing issues but this guy is suggesting that plateauing of cases is more a function of testing capacity than it is of case number stabilising. If he is correct then the NHS is going to take a battering unless hospitalisation rates are much lower for omicron.

The positivity rate for the last 7 days is 5.8% and enough tests have been done to cover 1 in 6 people. At the current rate, the UK will do more tests in 9 weeks than Germany has done in the entire pandemic. Germany’s most recently-published 7-day positivity rate is 19.8%.

dpedin wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:40 am

Don't know enough about testing issues but this guy is suggesting that plateauing of cases is more a function of testing capacity than it is of case number stabilising. If he is correct then the NHS is going to take a battering unless hospitalisation rates are much lower for omicron.

I would be surprised if it didn't go up in the middle of surge regardless of capacity. Test positivity and cases are more qualitative measures than an accurate reflection community spread hence the ONS and react studies. You would need a far higher of positivity than that to be indicating test capacity to be a concern, for example we were up at 20-25% in Wales during most of October and there was no concern about test capacity. If it is above 30% I might agree but at 13% and even in London under 20%, nah.

petej wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 7:10 pm

Sandstorm wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 7:04 pm

Slick wrote: Tue Dec 21, 2021 7:01 pm

So how does it end? Not being facetious

We get stronger than Covid through immunity and familiarity and it becomes - for real - “just another flu”

I’m hopeful that’s Summer 2022

Kind of feel like omicron is the beginning of the end for the pandemic and the first endemic variant.

Fingers crossed.
Some folks seem to assume that mutation is always in the direction of a virus getting weaker but that's not always the case. Spanish flu, for example, got worse from first to second wave probably because there was no evolutionary pressure pushing it that way. Waves 3 & 4 were also more deadly than the first wave. It would be great if there was a bit more awareness of this.

More than likely, we'll have to keep sensible but lower level measures in place. Can see mask wearing, vaccine certs (possibly more boosters), WFH and social distancing being with us for all of 2022. Mike Ryan from WHO said there's no single silver bullet so it'll be a raft of measures.
If Omicron turns out to be milder with the increased infection rate not offsetting that milder infection, then we just need to keep safe from it mutating back to something more dangerous.
Adopting a "let it run through" policy at this stage could undo all the good work to date.

Striking that balance with people weary of the stress & restrictions is going to be very tough.

dpedin wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 9:40 am

Don't know enough about testing issues but this guy is suggesting that plateauing of cases is more a function of testing capacity than it is of case number stabilising. If he is correct then the NHS is going to take a battering unless hospitalisation rates are much lower for omicron.

Well, I had no problem booking a test this morning. Went online at 1050, booked a test for 1130.