NPR

petej wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 8:57 am They would be close to being overwhelmed regardless. To not be overwhelmed they need excess capacity. They have no excess capacity as any excess capacity would be engaged in tackling the massive waiting lists which had more than doubled in size even prior to the pandemic. The nhs has finite resources so more COVID cases means less people being treated for something else as resources/staff are shifted to treating COVID patients. Anti vaxxers are essentially denying someone else life changing/saving treatment.

petej wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 9:51 am
My tolerance for the stupidity and selfishness of anti-vaxxers is very low. How nhs staff don't want to smash their stupid heads repeatedly against a wall instead of treating them I don't know.

Torquemada 1420 wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:18 am

petej wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 8:57 am They would be close to being overwhelmed regardless. To not be overwhelmed they need excess capacity. They have no excess capacity as any excess capacity would be engaged in tackling the massive waiting lists which had more than doubled in size even prior to the pandemic. The nhs has finite resources so more COVID cases means less people being treated for something else as resources/staff are shifted to treating COVID patients. Anti vaxxers are essentially denying someone else life changing/saving treatment.

Maybe. But recall in the early stages of COVID, when no-one was vaccinated, the Nightingale hospitals were virtually empty. Including the London one.

I would suggest that it was UK Govt policy that has resulted in unknown** numbers of excess deaths and impaired life expectancies from everything from cancers through to heart disease either due to treatment delays or failure to diagnose.

**Numbers officialdom is doing its utmost best not to quantify or disclose. It will be very interesting to see if the final death count from this failure exceeds that of COVID itself.

Wrinkles wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 8:41 am

dpedin wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 10:29 pm

Margin__Walker wrote: Wed Dec 22, 2021 8:07 pm At all previous crossroads I've been fairly clear in my head that a lockdown was required before the Government caved to it. March 2020, Autumn 2020 and December 2020.

The picture is far less straight forward now though for me. Clearly hospitalisations will increase over the next few weeks, but the extent of that still seems to be in question. Essentially the game has changed with the increased level of immunity resulting from the vaccine that does seem to be very successful in guarding against the worst outcomes. I'm not saying that further restrictions may not be necessary, but it does seem that the impact of full lockdowns is reduced, where as the economic cost remains the same.

By many accounts ICU's are full of unvaccinated people (almost all through their choice). Whilst that won't always be the case, I'd be reticent to swallow another round of restrictions of the type we've seen in the past unless hospitals were being completely overwhelmed. And given the people I would mix with on a regular basis are non vulnerable and triple jabbed, I'd be inclined to ignore any restrictions on things like household mixing.

Hospitals are close to being overwhelmed in London and this will likely be the case across the country soon. Problem this time is that omicron is as we know very, very virulent and the NHS will like everywhere else see significant staff absences due to omicron infections, isolating or caring for kids/elderly relatives. Beds are not the issue - it is availability of staffed beds that is very problematic. If the NHS see's nursing staff absence of 10-20% on top of the existing 10% vacancies then the NHS will struggle to cope with additional volumes of patients. Example - An ICU bed requires a 1:1 qualified nurse to bed ratio 24/7 - add in additional qualified staff time to cover breaks plus doing additional tasks like rotating patients etc and then add in 20% on top to cover annual leave, training, etc it means you need about 6.5 to 7 qualified ICU nurses per bed. ICU ward of 10 beds requires 65 to 70 wte nurses which will mean about 80'ish nurses as many work part time. If you are down 8 because of vacancies already and then lose another 10 - 15 or more to absence then you can't staff 10 ICU beds safely with 60 ish staff. You either spread qualified staff more thinly or staff ICU beds with unqualified nurses - both very unsafe and contrary to guidance - or close 2 or 3 beds. This is the problem - these staff are knackered and at the end of their tether, they have been working flat out for best part of 2 years.

I was in hospital for an outpatient appt a few weeks ago. Because of infection control the clinic was running at 50% of patient numbers so they were running extra clinics. Nurse looking after me said she normally worked part time 2 days a week in run down to retirement but because of covid was now working 4 long days a week. She should have retired some months ago but agreed to stay on because of staff shortages and she didn't want to let her colleagues down. She is going in March and they can't recruit to her post. She was concerned but said she couldn't do it anymore. Individuals staff are overwhelmed!

I don’t doubt you but it’s strange they’re close to being overwhelmed with less than a quarter of the patients they had last year (1,900 v 8,000).

Torquemada 1420 wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:18 am

petej wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 8:57 am They would be close to being overwhelmed regardless. To not be overwhelmed they need excess capacity. They have no excess capacity as any excess capacity would be engaged in tackling the massive waiting lists which had more than doubled in size even prior to the pandemic. The nhs has finite resources so more COVID cases means less people being treated for something else as resources/staff are shifted to treating COVID patients. Anti vaxxers are essentially denying someone else life changing/saving treatment.

Maybe. But recall in the early stages of COVID, when no-one was vaccinated, the Nightingale hospitals were virtually empty. Including the London one.

I would suggest that it was UK Govt policy that has resulted in unknown** numbers of excess deaths and impaired life expectancies from everything from cancers through to heart disease either due to treatment delays or failure to diagnose.

**Numbers officialdom is doing its utmost best not to quantify or disclose. It will be very interesting to see if the final death count from this failure exceeds that of COVID itself.

Sandstorm wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:22 am

Torquemada 1420 wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:18 am

petej wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 8:57 am They would be close to being overwhelmed regardless. To not be overwhelmed they need excess capacity. They have no excess capacity as any excess capacity would be engaged in tackling the massive waiting lists which had more than doubled in size even prior to the pandemic. The nhs has finite resources so more COVID cases means less people being treated for something else as resources/staff are shifted to treating COVID patients. Anti vaxxers are essentially denying someone else life changing/saving treatment.

Maybe. But recall in the early stages of COVID, when no-one was vaccinated, the Nightingale hospitals were virtually empty. Including the London one.

I would suggest that it was UK Govt policy that has resulted in unknown** numbers of excess deaths and impaired life expectancies from everything from cancers through to heart disease either due to treatment delays or failure to diagnose.

**Numbers officialdom is doing its utmost best not to quantify or disclose. It will be very interesting to see if the final death count from this failure exceeds that of COVID itself.

Nightingales were empty because everyone was at home and Alpha & Beta versions were less transmissible.

Also interested in causes of deaths after this is all over.

Biffer wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:22 am

Sandstorm wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:22 am

Torquemada 1420 wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:18 am
Maybe. But recall in the early stages of COVID, when no-one was vaccinated, the Nightingale hospitals were virtually empty. Including the London one.

I would suggest that it was UK Govt policy that has resulted in unknown** numbers of excess deaths and impaired life expectancies from everything from cancers through to heart disease either due to treatment delays or failure to diagnose.

**Numbers officialdom is doing its utmost best not to quantify or disclose. It will be very interesting to see if the final death count from this failure exceeds that of COVID itself.

Nightingales were empty because everyone was at home and Alpha & Beta versions were less transmissible.

Also interested in causes of deaths after this is all over.

Nightingales were empty because there was no staff

Sandstorm wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:22 am
Nightingales were empty because everyone was at home and Alpha & Beta versions were less transmissible.

Also interested in causes of deaths after this is all over.

Biffer wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:22 am

Sandstorm wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:22 am

Torquemada 1420 wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:18 am
Maybe. But recall in the early stages of COVID, when no-one was vaccinated, the Nightingale hospitals were virtually empty. Including the London one.

I would suggest that it was UK Govt policy that has resulted in unknown** numbers of excess deaths and impaired life expectancies from everything from cancers through to heart disease either due to treatment delays or failure to diagnose.

**Numbers officialdom is doing its utmost best not to quantify or disclose. It will be very interesting to see if the final death count from this failure exceeds that of COVID itself.

Nightingales were empty because everyone was at home and Alpha & Beta versions were less transmissible.

Also interested in causes of deaths after this is all over.

Nightingales were empty because there was no staff

Torquemada 1420 wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:26 am

Sandstorm wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:22 am
Nightingales were empty because everyone was at home and Alpha & Beta versions were less transmissible.

Also interested in causes of deaths after this is all over.

Agree. And SA data has shown hospitalisation 90% fewer than earlier variants which, if accurate and representative elsewhere, would mean Omicron would effectively have to be 11x more infectious (combined effects) which seems highly unlikely.

In fact, way more than 11x because earlier variants of COVID have already culled the majority of those most vulnerable to it.

After Toby Young writes a Mail+ comment piece titled 'At last, Boris has placed his trust in the common sense of the British people, not the Cassandras in lab coats' many point out that in Greek mythology, Cassandra was cursed to utter true prophecies that were not believed

Torquemada 1420 wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:27 am

Biffer wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:22 am

Sandstorm wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:22 am

Nightingales were empty because everyone was at home and Alpha & Beta versions were less transmissible.

Also interested in causes of deaths after this is all over.

Nightingales were empty because there was no staff

You are correct in that there were no appropriate staff but that's not why they were empty! All that meant was had there been any patients, no-one was available to treat them.

tabascoboy wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 1:48 pm

After Toby Young writes a Mail+ comment piece titled 'At last, Boris has placed his trust in the common sense of the British people, not the Cassandras in lab coats' many point out that in Greek mythology, Cassandra was cursed to utter true prophecies that were not believed

Toby Young is the General Secretary of the Free Speech Union.

Honestly why do these types bemoan loss of free speech when nothing's actually stopping them spouting utter BS in the press...?

Sandstorm wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:22 am

Torquemada 1420 wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:18 am

petej wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 8:57 am They would be close to being overwhelmed regardless. To not be overwhelmed they need excess capacity. They have no excess capacity as any excess capacity would be engaged in tackling the massive waiting lists which had more than doubled in size even prior to the pandemic. The nhs has finite resources so more COVID cases means less people being treated for something else as resources/staff are shifted to treating COVID patients. Anti vaxxers are essentially denying someone else life changing/saving treatment.

Maybe. But recall in the early stages of COVID, when no-one was vaccinated, the Nightingale hospitals were virtually empty. Including the London one.

I would suggest that it was UK Govt policy that has resulted in unknown** numbers of excess deaths and impaired life expectancies from everything from cancers through to heart disease either due to treatment delays or failure to diagnose.

**Numbers officialdom is doing its utmost best not to quantify or disclose. It will be very interesting to see if the final death count from this failure exceeds that of COVID itself.

Nightingales were empty because everyone was at home and Alpha & Beta versions were less transmissible.

Also interested in causes of deaths after this is all over.

tabascoboy wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 1:48 pm

After Toby Young writes a Mail+ comment piece titled 'At last, Boris has placed his trust in the common sense of the British people, not the Cassandras in lab coats' many point out that in Greek mythology, Cassandra was cursed to utter true prophecies that were not believed

Toby Young is the General Secretary of the Free Speech Union.

Honestly why do these types bemoan loss of free speech when nothing's actually stopping them spouting utter BS in the press...?

Happyhooker wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 2:14 pm

Torquemada 1420 wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:27 am

Biffer wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:22 am

Nightingales were empty because there was no staff

You are correct in that there were no appropriate staff but that's not why they were empty! All that meant was had there been any patients, no-one was available to treat them.

Wrong. In London the hospitals were screaming to send patients there. The doctors who set up the nightingales mentioned over and over about lack of staffing but were told just to get on with sorting out the infrastructure. When they opened very few staff were transferred over. If they had been staffed the london ICUs would have emptied themselves into there and there were plans for them to be an A&E type triage reception for new patients.

That this didn't happen was purely down to the lack of staffing.

Edit. Source - I used to play rugby with one of the clinical directors.

robmatic wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 2:38 pm

tabascoboy wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 1:48 pm

After Toby Young writes a Mail+ comment piece titled 'At last, Boris has placed his trust in the common sense of the British people, not the Cassandras in lab coats' many point out that in Greek mythology, Cassandra was cursed to utter true prophecies that were not believed

Toby Young is the General Secretary of the Free Speech Union.

Honestly why do these types bemoan loss of free speech when nothing's actually stopping them spouting utter BS in the press...?

It's distressing that we give him so much attention. He's thick as mince and basically innumerate, and has somehow set himself up as an armchair epidemiologist.

salanya wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 4:11 pm 119k cases

Well, Boris can congratulate himself on another record.

It may be less severe, but these numbers negate that. Poor NHS staff must be bricking it.

The number of NHS staff off sick because of Covid is soaring, new figures show, raising fresh fears about how hospitals will be able to respond to any Omicron-driven surge in patients needing care.
One health service leader said the NHS was now facing “a double emergency” of growing numbers of people hospitalised with Covid alongside increasing sickness absence on the frontline.
The number of staff days lost to Covid across the NHS in England hit 124,855 last week, a 38% jump on the 90,277 seen the week before, according to the latest “winter sitreps” data published by NHS England.

salanya wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 4:11 pm 119k cases

Well, Boris can congratulate himself on another record.

It may be less severe, but these numbers negate that. Poor NHS staff must be bricking it.

Ymx wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 4:54 pm So I’m day 5/6 after symptoms. So far it’s been a mild cold for me. Just a bit sneezy (not surprised it’s so infectious), but carried on working (from home of course). Others I know currently also similarly little affected. This is compared to others I know in from much weeks/earlier months (with no doubt delta) where it wiped them out.

So from my tiny sample set of experience, it’s very mild. Hopefully it gives me immunity from delta, although I’m fully vaxed as well, so fingers crossed I’m looking alright.

SaintK wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 4:50 pm

salanya wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 4:11 pm 119k cases

Well, Boris can congratulate himself on another record.

It may be less severe, but these numbers negate that. Poor NHS staff must be bricking it.

They appear to be dropping like flies, poor bastards!

The number of NHS staff off sick because of Covid is soaring, new figures show, raising fresh fears about how hospitals will be able to respond to any Omicron-driven surge in patients needing care.
One health service leader said the NHS was now facing “a double emergency” of growing numbers of people hospitalised with Covid alongside increasing sickness absence on the frontline.
The number of staff days lost to Covid across the NHS in England hit 124,855 last week, a 38% jump on the 90,277 seen the week before, according to the latest “winter sitreps” data published by NHS England.

Ymx wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 4:54 pm So I’m day 5/6 after symptoms. So far it’s been a mild cold for me. Just a bit sneezy (not surprised it’s so infectious), but carried on working (from home of course). Others I know currently also similarly little affected. This is compared to others I know in from much weeks/earlier months (with no doubt delta) where it wiped them out.

So from my tiny sample set of experience, it’s very mild. Hopefully it gives me immunity from delta, although I’m fully vaxed as well, so fingers crossed I’m looking alright.

Sandstorm wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 6:01 pm

Ymx wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 4:54 pm So I’m day 5/6 after symptoms. So far it’s been a mild cold for me. Just a bit sneezy (not surprised it’s so infectious), but carried on working (from home of course). Others I know currently also similarly little affected. This is compared to others I know in from much weeks/earlier months (with no doubt delta) where it wiped them out.

So from my tiny sample set of experience, it’s very mild. Hopefully it gives me immunity from delta, although I’m fully vaxed as well, so fingers crossed I’m looking alright.

How do you know you’ve got Omicron? Did anyone confirm it?

You might have Delta and be hard as nails!

Sandstorm wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 7:10 pm Well it sounds like you’ve got the new variant Sigma. First one out of the box. Good luck.

notfatcat wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 9:04 pm Is this one of the posters on here shown on the Beeb lead story?

Looks a bit tall and skinny so maybe not.

laurent wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:11 pm Need to get tested tomorrow of all days

Ovals wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:12 pm

laurent wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 10:11 pm Need to get tested tomorrow of all days

Bummer. Hope it's clear - Best of luck

salanya wrote: Thu Dec 23, 2021 4:11 pm 119k cases

Well, Boris can congratulate himself on another record.

It may be less severe, but these numbers negate that. Poor NHS staff must be bricking it.