NPR

Ymx wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 8:30 am He is playing on the French hatred of the English.

But 180k cases. Wow that jumped fast.

No hatred just scorn :P

any measure to stop the spread was done too late at this stage only the economy matters (and it's being wrecked because contaminated people are getting sick leave)

The French Goverment has dropped the ball by refusing to take serious steps.

What’s the French isolation rules?

Have they copied Britain with the reduction yet?

mos_eisely_ wrote: Tue Dec 28, 2021 11:16 am Really interesting thread from the NHS Foundation chief exec. Basically whilst admissions are up, it seems that there's a lot of incidentals whereby patients admitted for other things are testing positive but asymptomatic. Separating them from others and staff shortages seem to be big issues piling on the pressure

https://twitter.com/ChrisCEOHopson/stat ... ox7wA&s=19

This has been known in SA for weeks.

I guess in Brexit Britain, only Great British Scientists can be listened to.

Lemoentjie wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 10:28 am

mos_eisely_ wrote: Tue Dec 28, 2021 11:16 am Really interesting thread from the NHS Foundation chief exec. Basically whilst admissions are up, it seems that there's a lot of incidentals whereby patients admitted for other things are testing positive but asymptomatic. Separating them from others and staff shortages seem to be big issues piling on the pressure

https://twitter.com/ChrisCEOHopson/stat ... ox7wA&s=19

This has been known in SA for weeks.

I guess in Brexit Britain, only Great British Scientists can be listened to.

In this kind of situation, taking the experience of a country with a very different demographic (particularly age demographic), different levels of previous infection and different rates of vaccination as definitive would be monumentally fucking stupid.

The South Africans were listened to, that’s why the research and analysis into shorter timescales and milder disease has happened faster than it otherwise would. If it had been completely ignored, it would have been a couple of weeks before it was noticed in the numbers.

Another study suggesting omicron less able to infect and spread in lung tissue than Delta and ancestral sarsccov2



I think this is the fifth one now.

So all the Saffa doctors who were already saying a month ago that this variant is milder and less likely to result in pneumonia might have been on to something.

This ‘it’s a mild strain’ is a bit of hopeful over enthusiasm

Seems a touch dismissive to me.

These crazy SA witch-craft predictions seem to be coming true over here …

Some people around here don’t really understand how a body of evidence works in science.

Ymx wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 10:55 am These SA witch-craft predictions seem to be coming true over here …

They were all supposed to be "hopium" or maybe South African scientists and doctors "over interpretating" data.

Only worry here is the hospitalisation numbers vs NHS staff off.

Though at least there seem to be sensible steps being taken to safely reduce isolation

Worrying that everyone who has Covid assumes they've got the milder Omicron version. Do we think that Delta mutated into the new version everywhere & went away for ever in a couple of months?

Sandstorm wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 11:26 am Worrying that everyone who has Covid assumes they've got the milder Omicron version. Do we think that Delta mutated into the new version everywhere & went away for ever in a couple of months?

Probability wise, perhaps your friends aren’t so crazy.

Cyan colour is delta (and predecessors).

Ymx wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 11:42 am

Probability wise, perhaps your friends aren’t so crazy.

Cyan colour is delta (and predecessors).

Friend. The rest are colleagues and acquaintances.

Ymx wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 10:27 am What’s the French isolation rules?

Have they copied Britain with the reduction yet?

Messy... no reduction but they are talking about it

Trying to get LFT tests is turning into a shambles. No LFT's available still online and none available at any of the nominated pharmacies as they are not being shipped fast enough. Yet the recurring message from the arseholes running this country is take a test before you do anything or see anyone. THERE AREN'T ANY FUCKING TESTS AVAILABLE!!!
PCR's are almost as bad. My daughter tested positive on Christmas Eve still can't order a PCR fro home delivery. She doesn't drive and the local walk-in centre is now being used as a booster vaccination centre.

SaintK wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 12:26 pm My daughter tested positive on Christmas Eve still can't order a PCR fro home delivery. She doesn't drive and the local walk-in centre is now being used as a booster vaccination centre.

Is that really a problem? She has Covid, she should isolate for 10 days. Why does she need a PCR too?

So it looks like the omicron variant is leading to less hospitalisations, lower length of stays and fewer deaths. Those most acutely ill now are the unvaccinated who account for the majority of ICU patients. It also appears that it is now the dominant form of covid. This is good news and we might have struck lucky in seeing a new dominant mutation that although more virulant is less dangerous.

However in the short term we still need to protect the NHS over the winter. Whilst there might be fewer occupied bed days due to covid there is also a lower bed capacity due to staff being infected and/or isolating. 30% fewer nurses means significantly fewer beds available and with other winter pressures at their peak the NHS is under enormous pressure. We need to get to Easter without covid leading to any further major problems dealing with urgent/emergency/cancer patients, etc.

With a shortage of LFTs and PCRs currently and the impact of Xmas and NY it is difficult to get a handle on the actual numbers in the UK at the moment. For example the 129k of cases reported doesn't include Scottish figures so it will be well into the 130s/140s. Lack of testing capacity will lead to under reporting. Whilst omicron leads to a smaller % of hospitalisations there is still a danger that even a smaller % of a very large number is still a very large number. We should hopefully see a clearer picture early in January but there will be a significant peak in mid/late January due to NY celebrations.

There are also other questions that need to be addressed, such as - Does omicron still lead to long covid and if so at what rate? Does it still lead to other conditions such as myocarditis, blood clotting, etc in those infected? What is the reinfection rate from Omicron for folk who have previously been infected with covid? What impact does omicron have on unvaccinated kids under 12? What do we do about schools opening in the new year - do we adopt PH protections or just let them act as spreading centres?

Whilst things look very hopeful we still have a way to go yet and a few more answers to seek. It would be foolish in the extreme, despite what the 100 tory morons think, to expose lots of folk to a still relatively new virus mutation without understanding the full range of risks they may be exposed to. Plan of rthe worst and hope for the best.

Sandstorm wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 12:28 pm

SaintK wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 12:26 pm My daughter tested positive on Christmas Eve still can't order a PCR fro home delivery. She doesn't drive and the local walk-in centre is now being used as a booster vaccination centre.

Is that really a problem? She has Covid, she should isolate for 10 days. Why does she need a PCR too?

From the Government Covid website

If you have COVID-19 symptoms you should stay at home and self-isolate immediately. You should arrange to have a PCR test as soon as possible. If this PCR test result is positive, you must continue to self-isolate.

And it's 7 days isolation following 2 negative LFD tests taken 24 hours apart, though the 1st one should not be taken before the 6th day

Slick wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 10:04 am

TheFrog wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 7:02 am 180k yesterday in France

This is spreading like a wild fire.

In other news, CDC warns that antigen tests may not be sensitive to Omicron meaning the home self-test you use to protect your elders may return a false negative. When in doubt, seek a PCR.

It’s is spreading so fast that I think I’m slowly changing my attitude slightly to the whole thing. Everyone is going to get this this unless you lock your door and don’t go out, and the data seems to be pointing to it being much less severe with all our jags in place, so maybe it is time to move the dial slightly.

I’m not going to be going out maskless and spending my time in packed pubs, but an invitation to a Hogmanay doo with 5 families, that I wouldn’t have considered last year, looks difficult to turn down this year.

That's a similar approach to me.

Seeing an ever increasing number of people going maskless but although I'm not at that stage I am now trying to do more and more "normal" things with the kids. If any of me, the wife or kids feel uncomfortable then we leave.

We are testing regularly too.

dpedin wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 12:32 pm

There are also other questions that need to be addressed, such as - Does omicron still lead to long covid and if so at what rate? Does it still lead to other conditions such as myocarditis, blood clotting, etc in those infected? What is the reinfection rate from Omicron for folk who have previously been infected with covid? What impact does omicron have on unvaccinated kids under 12? What do we do about schools opening in the new year - do we adopt PH protections or just let them act as spreading centres?

Whilst things look very hopeful we still have a way to go yet and a few more answers to seek. It would be foolish in the extreme, despite what the 100 tory morons think, to expose lots of folk to a still relatively new virus mutation without understanding the full range of risks they may be exposed to. Plan of rthe worst and hope for the best.

like most viral infections sequelae of sarscov2 depends on the severity of the acute infection and the baseline health of the individual. Don't know why that principle would differ between variants and since omicron leads to generally milder infection you'd expect milder sequelae. A lot of the "long covid" studies I've looked at are self reporting so not very useful.

"planning for the worst", or "precautionary principle" is fine as long as the negative effects of lockdowns and further restrictions on the economy, people's health and mental health are taken into account.

My wife’s employer is really struggling with this (hospitality). Apparently PCR tests are taking 6 days to get results and no drop ins available in Edinburgh so having to take the decision to rely on LFT and honesty from the staff to keep going.

They are really great employers but just can’t afford to shut down. Feel for them trying to do the best by everyone

France just reported a daily count of 208000 cases

Ovals wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 3:51 pm France just reported a daily count of 208000 cases

Jesus !!!

Nearly 16k in Scotland

I do wonder what the true count in the Uk actually is.

Read somewhere an estimate like half are going undiagnosed due to the difference in symptoms.

Ymx wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 4:31 pm I do wonder what the true count in the Uk actually is.

Read somewhere an estimate like half are going undiagnosed due to the difference in symptoms.

ZOE symptom tracker has it at 2 million

Glaston wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 4:37 pm

Ymx wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 4:31 pm I do wonder what the true count in the Uk actually is.

Read somewhere an estimate like half are going undiagnosed due to the difference in symptoms.

ZOE symptom tracker has it at 2 million

Probably more accurate in the UK than anywhere else because we do far more testing eg @ 6 times than Germany, 2 x than France.

Ymx wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 4:31 pm I do wonder what the true count in the Uk actually is.

Read somewhere an estimate like half are going undiagnosed due to the difference in symptoms.

I know lots of sick people not tested. Friends who are just staying in bed and riding it out... and can't be bothered being tested. Plus people with no symptoms or mild cold like symptoms not being tested.

Must be only a few people left in the UK that haven't had a form of Covid at least once in the past two years.

Glaston wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 4:37 pm

Ymx wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 4:31 pm I do wonder what the true count in the Uk actually is.

Read somewhere an estimate like half are going undiagnosed due to the difference in symptoms.

ZOE symptom tracker has it at 2 million

We're dooomed (to have a sniffy New Year's Eve)

Grandpa wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 4:43 pm

Ymx wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 4:31 pm I do wonder what the true count in the Uk actually is.

Read somewhere an estimate like half are going undiagnosed due to the difference in symptoms.

I know lots of sick people not tested. Friends who are just staying in bed and riding it out... and can't be bothered being tested. Plus people with no symptoms or mild cold like symptoms not being tested.

Must be only a few people left in the UK that haven't had a form of Covid at least once in the past two years.

If it weren’t for asthma, although it’s well controlled, part of me thinks let’s just get it over with and have it, especially now that C’mas is out of the way. Although I’ve got the impression rightly or wrongly that it doesn’t hit asthmatics very much worse than others.

Flying back to the US tomorrow.

Tested negative

Disclaimer: took the antigen test which apparently is less efficient at detecting Omicron. But complied with the regulation.

GogLais wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 5:18 pm

Grandpa wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 4:43 pm

Ymx wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 4:31 pm I do wonder what the true count in the Uk actually is.

Read somewhere an estimate like half are going undiagnosed due to the difference in symptoms.

I know lots of sick people not tested. Friends who are just staying in bed and riding it out... and can't be bothered being tested. Plus people with no symptoms or mild cold like symptoms not being tested.

Must be only a few people left in the UK that haven't had a form of Covid at least once in the past two years.

If it weren’t for asthma, although it’s well controlled, part of me thinks let’s just get it over with and have it, especially now that C’mas is out of the way. Although I’ve got the impression rightly or wrongly that it doesn’t hit asthmatics very much worse than others.

I'm mildly asthmatic too. I am sure I read somewhere that the preventative inhalers that include a small dose of inhaled corticosteroid that most asthmatics take can reduce the impact and severity of covid if infected. So ironically we might be better protected than others without asthma?

dpedin wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 5:55 pm

GogLais wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 5:18 pm

Grandpa wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 4:43 pm

I know lots of sick people not tested. Friends who are just staying in bed and riding it out... and can't be bothered being tested. Plus people with no symptoms or mild cold like symptoms not being tested.

Must be only a few people left in the UK that haven't had a form of Covid at least once in the past two years.

If it weren’t for asthma, although it’s well controlled, part of me thinks let’s just get it over with and have it, especially now that C’mas is out of the way. Although I’ve got the impression rightly or wrongly that it doesn’t hit asthmatics very much worse than others.

I'm mildly asthmatic too. I am sure I read somewhere that the preventative inhalers that include a small dose of inhaled corticosteroid that most asthmatics take can reduce the impact and severity of covid if infected. So ironically we might be better protected than others without asthma?

Is that an inhaler in your pocket or are you pleased to see me?

Grandpa wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 4:43 pm

Ymx wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 4:31 pm I do wonder what the true count in the Uk actually is.

Read somewhere an estimate like half are going undiagnosed due to the difference in symptoms.

I know lots of sick people not tested. Friends who are just staying in bed and riding it out... and can't be bothered being tested. Plus people with no symptoms or mild cold like symptoms not being tested.

Must be only a few people left in the UK that haven't had a form of Covid at least once in the past two years.

I’m one of them.

That’s quite amazing. A teacher in scouseland has not had COVID (or have I got that wrong?)

Ymx wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 6:32 pm That’s quite amazing. A teacher in scouseland has not had COVID (or have I got that wrong?)

Lot of other types of sick leave probably

tabascoboy wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 6:35 pm

I’m pretty sure I’d be throwing quite a few punches if I came across these cunts

Ymx wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 6:32 pm That’s quite amazing. A teacher in scouseland has not had COVID (or have I got that wrong?)

You’ve got it right, two teachers in the house, two school age children and not a sniff of it, even when the missus had it.