NPR

Insane_Homer wrote: Thu Dec 30, 2021 7:39 pm

Calculon wrote: Thu Dec 30, 2021 7:03 pm A lockdown will have exactly the opposite effect of the virus "burning out”. You will lower transmission during lockdown which will then shoot up afterwards, in effect prolonging the overall wave.

Lemoentjie wrote: Fri Dec 31, 2021 10:29 am

Calculon wrote: Thu Dec 30, 2021 7:03 pm A lockdown will have exactly the opposite effect of the virus "burning out”. You will lower transmission during lockdown which will then shoot up afterwards, in effect prolonging the overall wave.

This. Lockdowns should only ever be considered if the health system is about to completely collapse.

dpedin wrote: Fri Dec 31, 2021 11:35 am

Lemoentjie wrote: Fri Dec 31, 2021 10:29 am

Calculon wrote: Thu Dec 30, 2021 7:03 pm A lockdown will have exactly the opposite effect of the virus "burning out”. You will lower transmission during lockdown which will then shoot up afterwards, in effect prolonging the overall wave.

This. Lockdowns should only ever be considered if the health system is about to completely collapse.

Don't disagree however this is the context in the UK and this is why the NHS is at risk due to covid after 10+ years of Tories in power.

Glaston wrote: Fri Dec 31, 2021 2:17 pm

dpedin wrote: Fri Dec 31, 2021 11:35 am

Lemoentjie wrote: Fri Dec 31, 2021 10:29 am

This. Lockdowns should only ever be considered if the health system is about to completely collapse.

Don't disagree however this is the context in the UK and this is why the NHS is at risk due to covid after 10+ years of Tories in power.

2000 4.08
2010 3.54

Hospital beds have been in decline irrespective of what party is in Govt.

sefton wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 10:22 pm

Grandpa wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 9:36 pm

sefton wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 6:45 pm

You’ve got it right, two teachers in the house, two school age children and not a sniff of it, even when the missus had it.

Are you tested quite regularly and know you have never had it in the last two years... even asymptomatically... Or are you just saying you haven't been sick?

Tested a minimum once a week.

Ymx wrote: Thu Dec 30, 2021 10:28 am

Uncle fester wrote: Wed Dec 29, 2021 10:18 pm Test came back positive so that's me confined to barracks for a while. I seem to have recovered from the unwellness that prompted me to take antigen tests in the first place but I'm not telling work that!

This got lost in there. All the best with it. Hope you are similarly little affected as per the others on here.

Frightening new Covid data shows Boris Johnson’s omicron gamble may be about to implode


The Prime Minister put everything on NHS blue – but the wheel is still spinning and hospital admissions are rising fast

A roulette table does not offer bets on NHS blue but, if it did, that's the colour on which Boris Johnson has placed our chips.

It's an outside bet and, if it comes good, will provide a reasonable indication that we are over the worst of Sars-Cov-2 and the need for lockdowns, in this pandemic at least.

But the wheel is still spinning. Indeed, the ball was only really put into play eight days ago when we all got together for Christmas.

As Prof Chris Whitty, the Chief Medical Officer (and croupier) for England, put it on Saturday: "Data show one in 25 people in England had Covid last week, with even higher rates in some areas.

"The wave is rising and hospital admissions are going up. Please protect yourself and those around you."
....

sockwithaticket wrote: Fri Dec 31, 2021 2:25 pm

Glaston wrote: Fri Dec 31, 2021 2:17 pm

dpedin wrote: Fri Dec 31, 2021 11:35 am

Don't disagree however this is the context in the UK and this is why the NHS is at risk due to covid after 10+ years of Tories in power.

2000 4.08
2010 3.54

Hospital beds have been in decline irrespective of what party is in Govt.

It's pretty clear from those numbers that the rate of decline accelerated markedly under the Tories before coming to a screeching halt (presumably after establishing the minimum number of beds they can get away with funding).

fishfoodie wrote: Sat Jan 01, 2022 10:46 pm From the Torygraph no less

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... on-gamble/

Frightening new Covid data shows Boris Johnson’s omicron gamble may be about to implode


The Prime Minister put everything on NHS blue – but the wheel is still spinning and hospital admissions are rising fast

A roulette table does not offer bets on NHS blue but, if it did, that's the colour on which Boris Johnson has placed our chips.

It's an outside bet and, if it comes good, will provide a reasonable indication that we are over the worst of Sars-Cov-2 and the need for lockdowns, in this pandemic at least.

But the wheel is still spinning. Indeed, the ball was only really put into play eight days ago when we all got together for Christmas.

As Prof Chris Whitty, the Chief Medical Officer (and croupier) for England, put it on Saturday: "Data show one in 25 people in England had Covid last week, with even higher rates in some areas.

"The wave is rising and hospital admissions are going up. Please protect yourself and those around you."
....

I find it impossible to reconcile, that the latest wave is not severe enough to require mandating the most basic of Public Health measures; but at the same time; the NHS is back building Emergency Nightingale Hospitals ?

Except; as usual; its too fucking late; & is theater; because these same Trusts that putting up tents in their car parks; are also suffering horrendous staff shortages; with workers out isolating up, up to 300% over a few weeks ago .... so who the fuck will be staffing these overflow tents?

Can someone ask Steve Baker ?

dpedin wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 9:33 am

fishfoodie wrote: Sat Jan 01, 2022 10:46 pm From the Torygraph no less

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... on-gamble/

Frightening new Covid data shows Boris Johnson’s omicron gamble may be about to implode


The Prime Minister put everything on NHS blue – but the wheel is still spinning and hospital admissions are rising fast

A roulette table does not offer bets on NHS blue but, if it did, that's the colour on which Boris Johnson has placed our chips.

It's an outside bet and, if it comes good, will provide a reasonable indication that we are over the worst of Sars-Cov-2 and the need for lockdowns, in this pandemic at least.

But the wheel is still spinning. Indeed, the ball was only really put into play eight days ago when we all got together for Christmas.

As Prof Chris Whitty, the Chief Medical Officer (and croupier) for England, put it on Saturday: "Data show one in 25 people in England had Covid last week, with even higher rates in some areas.

"The wave is rising and hospital admissions are going up. Please protect yourself and those around you."
....

I find it impossible to reconcile, that the latest wave is not severe enough to require mandating the most basic of Public Health measures; but at the same time; the NHS is back building Emergency Nightingale Hospitals ?

Except; as usual; its too fucking late; & is theater; because these same Trusts that putting up tents in their car parks; are also suffering horrendous staff shortages; with workers out isolating up, up to 300% over a few weeks ago .... so who the fuck will be staffing these overflow tents?

Can someone ask Steve Baker ?

Research also indicates that there is no change in the incidence of long covid with omicron. The longer term implications of letting it run wild strategy could be fairly serious for individuals, NHS and wider economy as a result of ongoing health issues and consequential sickness absences. Oh - omicron isn't really that much milder according to recent research - somewhere between 2% and 12% reduction in hospitalisations etc at best once vaccinations, previous infections, etc are factored in.

Wrinkles wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 10:21 am

dpedin wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 9:33 am

fishfoodie wrote: Sat Jan 01, 2022 10:46 pm From the Torygraph no less

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... on-gamble/



I find it impossible to reconcile, that the latest wave is not severe enough to require mandating the most basic of Public Health measures; but at the same time; the NHS is back building Emergency Nightingale Hospitals ?

Except; as usual; its too fucking late; & is theater; because these same Trusts that putting up tents in their car parks; are also suffering horrendous staff shortages; with workers out isolating up, up to 300% over a few weeks ago .... so who the fuck will be staffing these overflow tents?

Can someone ask Steve Baker ?

Research also indicates that there is no change in the incidence of long covid with omicron. The longer term implications of letting it run wild strategy could be fairly serious for individuals, NHS and wider economy as a result of ongoing health issues and consequential sickness absences. Oh - omicron isn't really that much milder according to recent research - somewhere between 2% and 12% reduction in hospitalisations etc at best once vaccinations, previous infections, etc are factored in.

Given long COVID requires symptoms for at least two months after infection and Omicron was first identified in late November, how can that possibly be the case? And if the reduction in hospitalisation was really as low as 12%, never mind 2%, they’d be swamped given 4% of the population apparently had it last week.

Isn’t it now the case around half of “hospitalisations” are patients presenting with other maladies testing positive on or after admission? That would mean around 6,000 people in hospital because of COVID out of the 2.75 million Chris Whitty reckons have it.

FalseBayFC wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 3:24 pm Let 'er rip everywhere! This is just slow poison trying to contain it. UK has under 200 deaths per day from/with Covid. The accumulated costs of shutting down the economy will be felt for years to come. Trying to prevent a paltry number of deaths by sacrificing the livelihoods of tens of thousands is not worth it.

FalseBayFC wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 3:24 pm Let 'er rip everywhere! This is just slow poison trying to contain it. UK has under 200 deaths per day from/with Covid. The accumulated costs of shutting down the economy will be felt for years to come. Trying to prevent a paltry number of deaths by sacrificing the livelihoods of tens of thousands is not worth it.

salanya wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 1:21 pm Not convinced by the long Covid argument on Omicron either - surely too early to tell. But it is still a cause for concern, for all Covid variants.

I think politicians have over-hyped the lower casualty/hospitalisation rate of Omicron, to support their own plans, agenda and (lack of) measures - i.e. to appease the rebellious backbenchers.

A lockdown wasn't needed, but consistent messaging about taking it serious as it is still Covid and still carries significant risks was required. Great to promote boosters, but to advocate at the same time not to cancel/limit parties and large events sends really mixed messages.

With better messaging and measures we could have kept infections much lower. Omicron may have 50-75% lower hospitalisation rates, but instead of using that to our advantage we let the infections quadruple.
I'd have been happy for the government to support the hospitality sector more for a month, rather than now facing issues across society as we start the New Year. Because deaths can also occur from lack of ambulance responders in case of strokes, hearts attacks etc. Or fewer fire responders. Or a lack of staff in neo-natal care.

We'll get through all this again, and hopefully the wave won't last as long and we're just talking weeks rather than months, but we've made things harder for ourselves, and more lives have been put at risk.

Biffer wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 4:42 pm

FalseBayFC wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 3:24 pm Let 'er rip everywhere! This is just slow poison trying to contain it. UK has under 200 deaths per day from/with Covid. The accumulated costs of shutting down the economy will be felt for years to come. Trying to prevent a paltry number of deaths by sacrificing the livelihoods of tens of thousands is not worth it.

A very shallow understanding of economic impact there.

dpedin wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 5:29 pm

Biffer wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 4:42 pm

FalseBayFC wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 3:24 pm Let 'er rip everywhere! This is just slow poison trying to contain it. UK has under 200 deaths per day from/with Covid. The accumulated costs of shutting down the economy will be felt for years to come. Trying to prevent a paltry number of deaths by sacrificing the livelihoods of tens of thousands is not worth it.

A very shallow understanding of economic impact there.

Nothing like a good pandemic to kick start the economy! Thank feck there hasn't been a more infectious strain spreading through the country ....

Meanwhile Gov warn industry to plan for 25% staff absences due to ... pandemic. Meanwhile flights, trains, buses are cancelled whilst retail and supply chains struggle to cope and to remain open. NHS is prioritising 'emergencies' with only those that are life threatening guaranteed to be seen. Yep everything going well.

Wrinkles wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 10:21 am

dpedin wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 9:33 am

fishfoodie wrote: Sat Jan 01, 2022 10:46 pm From the Torygraph no less

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... on-gamble/



I find it impossible to reconcile, that the latest wave is not severe enough to require mandating the most basic of Public Health measures; but at the same time; the NHS is back building Emergency Nightingale Hospitals ?

Except; as usual; its too fucking late; & is theater; because these same Trusts that putting up tents in their car parks; are also suffering horrendous staff shortages; with workers out isolating up, up to 300% over a few weeks ago .... so who the fuck will be staffing these overflow tents?

Can someone ask Steve Baker ?

Research also indicates that there is no change in the incidence of long covid with omicron. The longer term implications of letting it run wild strategy could be fairly serious for individuals, NHS and wider economy as a result of ongoing health issues and consequential sickness absences. Oh - omicron isn't really that much milder according to recent research - somewhere between 2% and 12% reduction in hospitalisations etc at best once vaccinations, previous infections, etc are factored in.

Given long COVID requires symptoms for at least two months after infection and Omicron was first identified in late November, how can that possibly be the case? And if the reduction in hospitalisation was really as low as 12%, never mind 2%, they’d be swamped given 4% of the population apparently had it last week.

Isn’t it now the case around half of “hospitalisations” are patients presenting with other maladies testing positive on or after admission? That would mean around 6,000 people in hospital because of COVID out of the 2.75 million Chris Whitty reckons have it.

dpedin wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 5:39 pm

Wrinkles wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 10:21 am

dpedin wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 9:33 am

Research also indicates that there is no change in the incidence of long covid with omicron. The longer term implications of letting it run wild strategy could be fairly serious for individuals, NHS and wider economy as a result of ongoing health issues and consequential sickness absences. Oh - omicron isn't really that much milder according to recent research - somewhere between 2% and 12% reduction in hospitalisations etc at best once vaccinations, previous infections, etc are factored in.

Given long COVID requires symptoms for at least two months after infection and Omicron was first identified in late November, how can that possibly be the case? And if the reduction in hospitalisation was really as low as 12%, never mind 2%, they’d be swamped given 4% of the population apparently had it last week.

Isn’t it now the case around half of “hospitalisations” are patients presenting with other maladies testing positive on or after admission? That would mean around 6,000 people in hospital because of COVID out of the 2.75 million Chris Whitty reckons have it.

Sorry - should have been clearer - in studies where patients were unvaccinated or hadn't been previously infected then omicron resulted in only marginally lower hospitalisations than Delta.

Study 1: Risk of hospitalisation (UKHSA/MRC
Biostatistics Unit, University of Cambridge)
An update on the analysis published last week finds the risk of presentation to emergency care
or hospital admission with Omicron was approximately half of that for Delta (Hazard Ratio 0.53,
95% CI: 0.50 to 0.57). The risk of hospital admission from emergency departments with
Omicron was approximately one-third of that for Delta (Hazard Ratio 0.33, 95% CI: 0.30 to
0.37). These analyses were stratified on date of specimen and area of residence and further
adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, local area deprivation, international travel, vaccination status.
They are also adjusted for whether the current infection is a known reinfection, although as
reinfections are substantially under-ascertained, the adjustment may not have fully accounted
for the effect of reinfections.
In this analysis, the risk of hospitalisation is lower for Omicron cases after 2 and 3 doses of
vaccine, with an 81% (77 to 85%) reduction in the risk of hospitalisation after 3 doses compared
to unvaccinated Omicron cases.

dpedin wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 5:29 pm

Biffer wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 4:42 pm

FalseBayFC wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 3:24 pm Let 'er rip everywhere! This is just slow poison trying to contain it. UK has under 200 deaths per day from/with Covid. The accumulated costs of shutting down the economy will be felt for years to come. Trying to prevent a paltry number of deaths by sacrificing the livelihoods of tens of thousands is not worth it.

A very shallow understanding of economic impact there.

Nothing like a good pandemic to kick start the economy! Thank feck there hasn't been a more infectious strain spreading through the country ....

Meanwhile Gov warn industry to plan for 25% staff absences due to ... pandemic. Meanwhile flights, trains, buses are cancelled whilst retail and supply chains struggle to cope and to remain open. NHS is prioritising 'emergencies' with only those that are life threatening guaranteed to be seen. Yep everything going well.

Biffer wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 5:32 pm

dpedin wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 5:29 pm

Biffer wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 4:42 pm

A very shallow understanding of economic impact there.

Nothing like a good pandemic to kick start the economy! Thank feck there hasn't been a more infectious strain spreading through the country ....

Meanwhile Gov warn industry to plan for 25% staff absences due to ... pandemic. Meanwhile flights, trains, buses are cancelled whilst retail and supply chains struggle to cope and to remain open. NHS is prioritising 'emergencies' with only those that are life threatening guaranteed to be seen. Yep everything going well.

Exactly. The economic impact is because of the pandemic, not because of the restrictions. The idea that if we remove all the restrictions the economy just flicks back to normal is moronic.

Biffer wrote: Mon Jan 03, 2022 2:34 pm Incredibly difficult with an informal economy. If you're business doesn't lodge accounts how do you prove it exists? So difficult to compensate.

Point to s hospitality for example would be a bit fucked anyway. I'd there's a highly infectious disease out there, numbers will be significantly down even without any restrictions. Business travel, tourism etc all affected as well. People unwilling to have people on their homes to do work, etc etc.

Calculon wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 5:55 pm

dpedin wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 5:29 pm

Biffer wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 4:42 pm

A very shallow understanding of economic impact there.

Nothing like a good pandemic to kick start the economy! Thank feck there hasn't been a more infectious strain spreading through the country ....

Meanwhile Gov warn industry to plan for 25% staff absences due to ... pandemic. Meanwhile flights, trains, buses are cancelled whilst retail and supply chains struggle to cope and to remain open. NHS is prioritising 'emergencies' with only those that are life threatening guaranteed to be seen. Yep everything going well.

Maybe isolation requirements should be further relaxed.

Blackmac wrote: Tue Jan 04, 2022 10:24 am

Calculon wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 5:55 pm

dpedin wrote: Sun Jan 02, 2022 5:29 pm

Nothing like a good pandemic to kick start the economy! Thank feck there hasn't been a more infectious strain spreading through the country ....

Meanwhile Gov warn industry to plan for 25% staff absences due to ... pandemic. Meanwhile flights, trains, buses are cancelled whilst retail and supply chains struggle to cope and to remain open. NHS is prioritising 'emergencies' with only those that are life threatening guaranteed to be seen. Yep everything going well.

Maybe isolation requirements should be further relaxed.

My wife's hospital have introduced test and release for staff and have even relaxed that further to 2 LFT's as PCR tests are taking too long to come back. I've read that they now consider LFT's to be over 80% reliable so surely that is the way to go.