NPR

Guy Smiley wrote: Wed Mar 09, 2022 8:14 pm

CM11 wrote: Wed Mar 09, 2022 12:02 pm

Mahoney wrote: Wed Mar 09, 2022 11:42 am He discusses the possibilities at length in the thread.

Twitter are forcing me to sign up to read more than a couple of posts. I'm not giving in. Yet.

So reassuring to hear that I'm not alone. In my weaker moments I... it just feels sometimes that giving in would be easier. Just like going to sleep.

Twitter is one of the worst things that's happened to society in human history. It does have some great stuff but the pile ins far outweigh the good.

CM11 wrote: Wed Mar 09, 2022 8:25 pm

Guy Smiley wrote: Wed Mar 09, 2022 8:14 pm

CM11 wrote: Wed Mar 09, 2022 12:02 pm

Twitter are forcing me to sign up to read more than a couple of posts. I'm not giving in. Yet.

So reassuring to hear that I'm not alone. In my weaker moments I... it just feels sometimes that giving in would be easier. Just like going to sleep.

Twitter is one of the worst things that's happened to society in human history. It does have some great stuff but the pile ins far outweigh the good.

I have Scottish folk musicians and Scottish rugby feeds on Twitter and very little else, oh some stuff on trees and guitar making too.

One of the above has a negative impact on my mental well-being.

CM11 wrote: Wed Mar 09, 2022 8:22 pm

dpedin wrote: Wed Mar 09, 2022 7:41 pm

CM11 wrote: Wed Mar 09, 2022 11:32 am Number of people in hospital testing positive for covid is a meaningless statistic now that it's endemic.

We saw in Jan that up to 50%, if not more, covid hospital patients were not being treated for covid.

Agree case numbers are now a meaningless statistic, the dismantling of testing and relaxing of requirement to isolate if infected means we have no track of real case numbers. However we are still in the pandemic phase of covid with local/regional/national peaks and troughs driven by new and emerging variants. Endemic means a steady state of equilibrium without large peaks of disease but we are seeing significant outbreaks in Hong Kong and Denmark at the moment, for example. It is more wishful thinking rather than PH expert opinion. Also becoming endemic doesn't mean covid severity gets lower, it could be exactly the opposite and get higher. Omicron was said to be 'milder' but that was when compared to Delta, it isn't milder than the original or Alpha variants - vaccination is doing the heavy lifting now.

I was referring mostly to the UK and Ireland but fair post.

It doesn't feel very pandemicy at all here. Hospital numbers crept up without much fanfare and we've all but dismantled our emergency PH team.

In Scotland there are currently 1509 people in hospital who have recently tested positive for the virus - 69 more than yesterday, and 283 more than a week ago. This is back up to the numbers seen in mid January. Yes many will be in hospital for other reasons but the same could have been said last week or in January - the number of positives are going up by a good number. Thankfully ICU numbers aren't rising by as much but we need to watch to see for time lag. Currently averaging about 17 deaths a day, last week average was 12. Hopefully this is just a blip due to the relaxation of restrictions and the general 'covid has gone' attitude of many but ...

I don't want to come across as covid isn't a thing but if you looked at deaths per week for people with the common cold it wouldn't be zero. The ICU figures are telling and it's not clear to the layman how serious covid currently is. There's no impression here that it's a major concern over normal viruses in its current state but I don't know how reliant on vaccines that is and as we know vaccines wane quickly. Is the rise due to that or just everyone has it and are in hospital for unrelated reasons?

As someome who works with extremely vulnerably patients and ventilation, Covid is a real problem for my cohort.
People are dying of it daily albeit in far less numbers and far less people getting really sick.

Granted it’s anecdotal but I’m hearing about significantly more friends and friends of friends having the Covid in the last two or three weeks, although none seriously ill as far as I know.

Ymx wrote: Wed Mar 09, 2022 7:59 pm Is omicron not milder to the un-vaxed? Really??

Blimey I haven’t thought about covid for such a long time.

Crazy world. Each year seems to try and outdo the last.

Pretty sure there's been a few studies indicating that omicron is intrinsically milder than the original variant.

CM11 wrote: Wed Mar 09, 2022 12:22 pm

Slick wrote: Wed Mar 09, 2022 12:14 pm

CM11 wrote: Wed Mar 09, 2022 12:02 pm

Twitter are forcing me to sign up to read more than a couple of posts. I'm not giving in. Yet.

Don't! Not worth it, even in the face of a plague

That's my thinking alright!

I know I'll be able to resist posting initially but there'll be some day that I'll be weak and can't help myself and that'll be that.

Moi auusi. tw@tter has thus far received a strident get fúcked from me and I cannot see that changing.

Tichtheid wrote: Wed Mar 09, 2022 8:29 pm

CM11 wrote: Wed Mar 09, 2022 8:25 pm

Guy Smiley wrote: Wed Mar 09, 2022 8:14 pm

So reassuring to hear that I'm not alone. In my weaker moments I... it just feels sometimes that giving in would be easier. Just like going to sleep.

Twitter is one of the worst things that's happened to society in human history. It does have some great stuff but the pile ins far outweigh the good.

I have Scottish folk musicians and Scottish rugby feeds on Twitter and very little else, oh some stuff on trees and guitar making too.

One of the above has a negative impact on my mental well-being.

We chop down trees
We make guitars
We go to the lavat'ry
We listen to folk music
Then watch rugby after tea.

Which bit has you reaching for the shotgun?

MungoMan wrote: Thu Mar 10, 2022 2:40 am

Tichtheid wrote: Wed Mar 09, 2022 8:29 pm

CM11 wrote: Wed Mar 09, 2022 8:25 pm

Twitter is one of the worst things that's happened to society in human history. It does have some great stuff but the pile ins far outweigh the good.

I have Scottish folk musicians and Scottish rugby feeds on Twitter and very little else, oh some stuff on trees and guitar making too.

One of the above has a negative impact on my mental well-being.

We chop down trees
We make guitars
We go to the lavat'ry
We listen to folk music
Then watch rugby after tea.

Which bit has you reaching for the shotgun?

Got to applaud that effort.

Tichtheid wrote: Wed Mar 09, 2022 8:29 pm

CM11 wrote: Wed Mar 09, 2022 8:25 pm

Guy Smiley wrote: Wed Mar 09, 2022 8:14 pm

So reassuring to hear that I'm not alone. In my weaker moments I... it just feels sometimes that giving in would be easier. Just like going to sleep.

Twitter is one of the worst things that's happened to society in human history. It does have some great stuff but the pile ins far outweigh the good.

I have Scottish folk musicians and Scottish rugby feeds on Twitter and very little else, oh some stuff on trees and guitar making too.

One of the above has a negative impact on my mental well-being.

How do you keep the random tweets and “suggestions” away though? I set mine up specifically for hill walking and AF beer, then got drawn into rugby, but half the timeline is random and provocative stuff. Can’t keep on top of it spend half my time blocking and saying I’m not interested

Slick wrote: Thu Mar 10, 2022 7:31 am

Tichtheid wrote: Wed Mar 09, 2022 8:29 pm

CM11 wrote: Wed Mar 09, 2022 8:25 pm

Twitter is one of the worst things that's happened to society in human history. It does have some great stuff but the pile ins far outweigh the good.

I have Scottish folk musicians and Scottish rugby feeds on Twitter and very little else, oh some stuff on trees and guitar making too.

One of the above has a negative impact on my mental well-being.

How do you keep the random tweets and “suggestions” away though? I set mine up specifically for hill walking and AF beer, then got drawn into rugby, but half the timeline is random and provocative stuff. Can’t keep on top of it spend half my time blocking and saying I’m not interested

Set to 'latest tweets' instead of 'home'. That helps massively I've found. Just get the tweets of the people I've followed, in order. Plus ads.

Genius Biffer! Thanks

CM11 wrote: Wed Mar 09, 2022 10:12 pm I don't want to come across as covid isn't a thing but if you looked at deaths per week for people with the common cold it wouldn't be zero. The ICU figures are telling and it's not clear to the layman how serious covid currently is. There's no impression here that it's a major concern over normal viruses in its current state but I don't know how reliant on vaccines that is and as we know vaccines wane quickly. Is the rise due to that or just everyone has it and are in hospital for unrelated reasons?

Cases numbers, covid hospital numbers, ICU numbers and deaths all up again today in Scotland and all higher than same figures from last week - trend is up. In hospital covid numbers now higher than they were in January and were last this high in Feb 2021. Case numbers in all age groups are going up. Hopefully a result of the relaxation of regulations and general view that covid is over and hopefully we will see numbers begin to fall soon. Could be that new omicron BA.2 variant is driving numbers up? Increase in hospitalisations is worrying given the impact his will have on NHS and ability to carry out emergency and elective work. Next few weeks will be interesting.

FFS, Covid in the house again.

3 year old daughter just tested positive. I find it very odd that my wife and son had it and we didn’t get it but now she has it from elsewhere. I’m sure there is a good reason

It appears masks do work? Awaits lots of tweets telling me study is unscientific and not worth the paper it is written on!

Interesting thread showing just how world beating the UK response to covid has been. Makes me proud!

I see the zero covid nutters on twitter are still going strong...


Meanwhile back to reality:

dpedin wrote: Fri Mar 11, 2022 9:27 am Interesting thread showing just how world beating the UK response to covid has been. Makes me proud!

There's an interesting paper in the Lancet today, Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis of COVID-19-related mortality, 2020–21. This suggests that the global figure for Covid19 deaths could be as much as 18m, 3x as many as reported.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... ltext#tbl1

The study suggests that UK reported deaths appear to be reasonably accurate (170k), especially when compared with several other countries including some in Europe. For example, the study suggests that excess deaths in the US should be 1.13m rather than the 824000 reported. Germany's excess deaths are estimated to be 203,000 rather than the 113,000 reported. Italy 259,000 rather than 137,000, Poland 214,000 rather than 97,100, Russia 1.07m rather than 651,000 and so on.

If these excess deaths estimates are accurate (or at least, more accurate than countries own reported deaths), those World in Data comparisons would appear to be pretty meaningless.

I've not been following the rest of Canada, but masks are "not required" now in BC as of midnight (except in schools until after the March Break... which I think means today only, in place after next week's holiday break). Vaccine passport no longer in place early April.

I need to go to the shops today... will feel a bit 'odd' seeing everyone unmasked. I might still use it on public transit, though, as I've not been sick since 2019 and reckon it, and more hand sanitising, has kept me away from the 'bugs'.

Marylandolorian wrote: Fri Mar 11, 2022 4:30 pm

Lobby wrote: Fri Mar 11, 2022 11:46 am
There's an interesting paper in the Lancet today, Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis of COVID-19-related mortality, 2020–21. This suggests that the global figure for Covid19 deaths could be as much as 18m, 3x as many as reported.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... ltext#tbl1

The study suggests that UK reported deaths appear to be reasonably accurate (170k), especially when compared with several other countries including some in Europe. For example, the study suggests that excess deaths in the US should be 1.13m rather than the 824000 reported. Germany's excess deaths are estimated to be 203,000 rather than the 113,000 reported. Italy 259,000 rather than 137,000, Poland 214,000 rather than 97,100, Russia 1.07m rather than 651,000 and so on.

If these excess deaths estimates are accurate (or at least, more accurate than countries own reported deaths), those World in Data comparisons would appear to be pretty meaningless.

Glad that the Lancet published this, I saw several articles last year about unreported covid deaths, India might be the worst culprit , like the Mumbai’s government reported 500 deaths but the medias and doctors were saying 5000.

According to the Lancet paper, India’s excess deaths are estimated to be 4.07m, rather than the 489,000 reported, so around 8x as many as reported.

That study in the lancet used some strange methodologies that came up with some plainly wrong figures



https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00708-0

As someone who's been along for the ride, whilst not pretending to be an overnight expert in any of the data surrounding Covid, John Burn-Murdoch has been a superb and rational source of information.

Margin__Walker wrote: Fri Mar 11, 2022 7:42 pm As someone who's been along for the ride, whilst not pretending to be an overnight expert in any of the data surrounding Covid, John Burn-Murdoch has been a superb and rational source of information.

Agree. Given that people with good maths skills who have been consistently correct during the pandemic are calling bullshit on The Lancet paper, I’ll trust them.

Positive test this am after 5 days of symproms and 3 previous lat flow tests.

#prayforme

Mild aymptoms of head cold and coughing up phlegm.
Lots of lemsips and tissues at hand.

C69 wrote: Sun Mar 13, 2022 9:48 am Positive test this am after 5 days of symproms and 3 previous lat flow tests.

#prayforme

Mild aymptoms of head cold and coughing up phlegm.
Lots of lemsips and tissues at hand.

/?
Here, a lot of people are getting negative RATs then PCR positive - BA2

Young daughter had a really bad day with it yesterday then startled complaining of a stiff neck and headache which had me in a total panic about meningitis.

A lot better today thankfully, did not enjoy that

mat the expat wrote: Sun Mar 13, 2022 11:40 am

C69 wrote: Sun Mar 13, 2022 9:48 am Positive test this am after 5 days of symproms and 3 previous lat flow tests.

#prayforme

Mild aymptoms of head cold and coughing up phlegm.
Lots of lemsips and tissues at hand.

/?
Here, a lot of people are getting negative RATs then PCR positive - BA2

Yep.

Remember reading about Omicron being less detectable in nasal passage, and how people need to tonsil swab as well for the lat flows.

It’s no wonder it spreads so efficiently. Very runny nose and sneezing add to that.

Ymx wrote: Sun Mar 13, 2022 1:12 pm

mat the expat wrote: Sun Mar 13, 2022 11:40 am

C69 wrote: Sun Mar 13, 2022 9:48 am Positive test this am after 5 days of symproms and 3 previous lat flow tests.

#prayforme

Mild aymptoms of head cold and coughing up phlegm.
Lots of lemsips and tissues at hand.

/?
Here, a lot of people are getting negative RATs then PCR positive - BA2

Yep.

Remember reading about Omicron being less detectable in nasal passage, and how people need to tonsil swab as well for the lat flows.

It’s no wonder it spreads so efficiently. Very runny nose and sneezing add to that.

Which is basically what my symptoms are since testing positive last Wednesday.
Kleenex shares must be booming!

Ymx wrote: Sun Mar 13, 2022 1:12 pm

mat the expat wrote: Sun Mar 13, 2022 11:40 am

C69 wrote: Sun Mar 13, 2022 9:48 am Positive test this am after 5 days of symproms and 3 previous lat flow tests.

#prayforme

Mild aymptoms of head cold and coughing up phlegm.
Lots of lemsips and tissues at hand.

/?
Here, a lot of people are getting negative RATs then PCR positive - BA2

Yep.

Remember reading about Omicron being less detectable in nasal passage, and how people need to tonsil swab as well for the lat flows.

It’s no wonder it spreads so efficiently. Very runny nose and sneezing add to that.

Same here. 3 days of mild symptoms - a cough - with negative LFTs before testing positive. I just assumed it was a regular chest infection.

Here it was.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/scie ... 87954.html

And apols for posting an independent link.

I will be off work for at least 5 days so will catch up some netfix shows and do some reading.
Have been banished to the spare room and have to wear a mask when my daughter is home from school.

I am basically a covid apartheid victim in my own home.

Until my wife tests positive tomorrow.

Lol

C69 wrote: Sun Mar 13, 2022 7:19 pm I will be off work for at least 5 days so will catch up some netfix shows and do some reading.
Have been banished to the spare room and have to wear a mask when my daughter is home from school.

I am basically a covid apartheid victim in my own home.

Until my wife tests positive tomorrow.

Lol

Then you move out to a tent on the lawn, & she gets the spare room, right ?

C69 wrote: Sun Mar 13, 2022 7:19 pm I will be off work for at least 5 days so will catch up some netfix shows and do some reading.

I've been hitting Netflix a bit lately... random tip for you. I started watching The River Runner the other night and at first I had it pidgeon holed as a bit of a stereotypical US gung ho docuheroaction movie. It takes a surprising and heartwarming turn. Glad I watched it.

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt15293256/

Guy Smiley wrote: Sun Mar 13, 2022 9:15 pm

C69 wrote: Sun Mar 13, 2022 7:19 pm I will be off work for at least 5 days so will catch up some netfix shows and do some reading.

I've been hitting Netflix a bit lately... random tip for you. I started watching The River Runner the other night and at first I had it pidgeon holed as a bit of a stereotypical US gung ho docuheroaction movie. It takes a surprising and heartwarming turn. Glad I watched it.

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt15293256/

Best thing I’ve watched on Netflix recently was Archive 81

Guy Smiley wrote: Sun Mar 13, 2022 9:15 pm

C69 wrote: Sun Mar 13, 2022 7:19 pm I will be off work for at least 5 days so will catch up some netfix shows and do some reading.

I've been hitting Netflix a bit lately... random tip for you. I started watching The River Runner the other night and at first I had it pidgeon holed as a bit of a stereotypical US gung ho docuheroaction movie. It takes a surprising and heartwarming turn. Glad I watched it.

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt15293256/

Dark is my suggestion.

Calculon wrote: Fri Mar 11, 2022 10:14 am I see the zero covid nutters on twitter are still going strong...


Meanwhile back to reality:

So here's an excellent thread talking about the problems with the framing of that FT article:




TL;DR: We don't know the IFR of flu and it's likely to be far lower than suggested in that article, which also neglects to mention that even if you are as likely to die of flu as of covid (which isn't borne out by stats at the moment) if you get infected, there's a much, much larger change of getting infected with covid than with flu.

Flu normally kills 4 people a day in the UK? That sounds very low

Margin__Walker wrote: Mon Mar 14, 2022 1:28 pm Flu normally kills 4 people a day in the UK? That sounds very low

The thread goes into this. Seems like there's quite a bit of argument about 'flu deaths. And the data set they used in the FT piece had "only 1.7 deaths per 100k mentioned influenza ANYWHERE on the death certificate. The study then goes on to add in all respiratory related deaths during flu season, circulatory deaths, and all cause mortality, in their modelling"

Interesting. Remember seeing pre pandemic figures of recorded flu deaths much higher than 4 a day (10s of thousands a year)

The issue I'd have with the 4 per day vs 100 per day, is that he's taken the absolute lowest interpretation for Flu and the highest for Covid (there aren't 100 people a day dying primarily of Covid). It seems a pretty sloppy comparison to the layman.