So, coronavirus...

[dpedin]

I don't want to come across as covid isn't a thing but if you looked at deaths per week for people with the common cold it wouldn't be zero. The ICU figures are telling and it's not clear to the layman how serious covid currently is. There's no impression here that it's a major concern over normal viruses in its current state but I don't know how reliant on vaccines that is and as we know vaccines wane quickly. Is the rise due to that or just everyone has it and are in hospital for unrelated reasons?

Cases numbers, covid hospital numbers, ICU numbers and deaths all up again today in Scotland and all higher than same figures from last week - trend is up. In hospital covid numbers now higher than they were in January and were last this high in Feb 2021. Case numbers in all age groups are going up. Hopefully a result of the relaxation of regulations and general view that covid is over and hopefully we will see numbers begin to fall soon. Could be that new omicron BA.2 variant is driving numbers up? Increase in hospitalisations is worrying given the impact his will have on NHS and ability to carry out emergency and elective work. Next few weeks will be interesting.

[Slick]

FFS, Covid in the house again.

3 year old daughter just tested positive. I find it very odd that my wife and son had it and we didn’t get it but now she has it from elsewhere. I’m sure there is a good reason

[dpedin]

It appears masks do work? Awaits lots of tweets telling me study is unscientific and not worth the paper it is written on!

[dpedin]

Interesting thread showing just how world beating the UK response to covid has been. Makes me proud!

[Calculon]

I see the zero covid nutters on twitter are still going strong...


Meanwhile back to reality:

[Lobby]

Interesting thread showing just how world beating the UK response to covid has been. Makes me proud!

There's an interesting paper in the Lancet today, Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis of COVID-19-related mortality, 2020–21. This suggests that the global figure for Covid19 deaths could be as much as 18m, 3x as many as reported.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... ltext#tbl1

The study suggests that UK reported deaths appear to be reasonably accurate (170k), especially when compared with several other countries including some in Europe. For example, the study suggests that excess deaths in the US should be 1.13m rather than the 824000 reported. Germany's excess deaths are estimated to be 203,000 rather than the 113,000 reported. Italy 259,000 rather than 137,000, Poland 214,000 rather than 97,100, Russia 1.07m rather than 651,000 and so on.

If these excess deaths estimates are accurate (or at least, more accurate than countries own reported deaths), those World in Data comparisons would appear to be pretty meaningless.

[Marylandolorian]

There's an interesting paper in the Lancet today, Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis of COVID-19-related mortality, 2020–21. This suggests that the global figure for Covid19 deaths could be as much as 18m, 3x as many as reported.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... ltext#tbl1

The study suggests that UK reported deaths appear to be reasonably accurate (170k), especially when compared with several other countries including some in Europe. For example, the study suggests that excess deaths in the US should be 1.13m rather than the 824000 reported. Germany's excess deaths are estimated to be 203,000 rather than the 113,000 reported. Italy 259,000 rather than 137,000, Poland 214,000 rather than 97,100, Russia 1.07m rather than 651,000 and so on.

If these excess deaths estimates are accurate (or at least, more accurate than countries own reported deaths), those World in Data comparisons would appear to be pretty meaningless.

Glad that the Lancet published this, I saw several articles last year about unreported covid deaths, India might be the worst culprit , like the Mumbai’s government reported 500 deaths but the medias and doctors were saying 5000.

[Niegs]

I've not been following the rest of Canada, but masks are "not required" now in BC as of midnight (except in schools until after the March Break... which I think means today only, in place after next week's holiday break). Vaccine passport no longer in place early April.

I need to go to the shops today... will feel a bit 'odd' seeing everyone unmasked. I might still use it on public transit, though, as I've not been sick since 2019 and reckon it, and more hand sanitising, has kept me away from the 'bugs'.

[Lobby]

There's an interesting paper in the Lancet today, Estimating excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic: a systematic analysis of COVID-19-related mortality, 2020–21. This suggests that the global figure for Covid19 deaths could be as much as 18m, 3x as many as reported.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... ltext#tbl1

The study suggests that UK reported deaths appear to be reasonably accurate (170k), especially when compared with several other countries including some in Europe. For example, the study suggests that excess deaths in the US should be 1.13m rather than the 824000 reported. Germany's excess deaths are estimated to be 203,000 rather than the 113,000 reported. Italy 259,000 rather than 137,000, Poland 214,000 rather than 97,100, Russia 1.07m rather than 651,000 and so on.

If these excess deaths estimates are accurate (or at least, more accurate than countries own reported deaths), those World in Data comparisons would appear to be pretty meaningless.

Glad that the Lancet published this, I saw several articles last year about unreported covid deaths, India might be the worst culprit , like the Mumbai’s government reported 500 deaths but the medias and doctors were saying 5000.

According to the Lancet paper, India’s excess deaths are estimated to be 4.07m, rather than the 489,000 reported, so around 8x as many as reported.

[Calculon]

That study in the lancet used some strange methodologies that came up with some plainly wrong figures



https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00708-0

[Marylandolorian]

That study in the lancet used some strange methodologies that came up with some plainly wrong figures



https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-022-00708-0

says who? You , John farking Murdock or shall be trust these guys?

COVID-19 Excess Mortality Collaborators
Haidong Wang, Katherine R Paulson, Spencer A Pease, Stefanie Watson, Haley Comfort, Peng Zheng, Aleksandr Y Aravkin, Catherine Bisignano, Ryan M Barber, Tahiya Alam, John E Fuller, Erin A May, Darwin Phan Jones, Meghan E Frisch, Cristiana Abbafati, Christopher Adolph, Adrien Allorant, Joanne O Amlag, Bree Bang-Jensen, Gregory J Bertolacci, Sabina S Bloom, Austin Carter, Emma Castro, Suman Chakrabarti, Jhilik Chattopadhyay, Rebecca M Cogen, James K Collins, Kimberly Cooperrider, Xiaochen Dai, William James Dangel, Farah Daoud, Carolyn Dapper, Amanda Deen, Bruce B Duncan, Megan Erickson, Samuel B Ewald, Tatiana Fedosseeva, Alize J Ferrari, Joseph Jon Frostad, Nancy Fullman, John Gallagher, Amiran Gamkrelidze, Gaorui Guo, Jiawei He, Monika Helak, Nathaniel J Henry, Erin N Hulland, Bethany M Huntley, Maia Kereselidze, Alice Lazzar-Atwood, Kate E LeGrand, Akiaja Lindstrom, Emily Linebarger, Paulo A Lotufo, Rafael Lozano, Beatrice Magistro, Deborah Carvalho Malta, Johan Månsson, Ana M Mantilla Herrera, Fatima Marinho, Alemnesh H Mirkuzie, Awoke Temesgen Misganaw, Lorenzo Monasta, Paulami Naik, Shuhei Nomura, Edward G O'Brien, James Kevin O'Halloran, Latera Tesfaye Olana, Samuel M Ostroff, Louise Penberthy, Robert C Reiner Jr, Grace Reinke, Antonio Luiz P Ribeiro, Damian Francesco Santomauro, Maria Inês Schmidt, David H Shaw, Brittney S Sheena, Aleksei Sholokhov, Natia Skhvitaridze, Reed J D Sorensen, Emma Elizabeth Spurlock, Ruri Syailendrawati, Roman Topor-Madry, Christopher E Troeger, Rebecca Walcott, Ally Walker, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Nahom Alemseged Worku, Bethany Zigler, David M Pigott, Mohsen Naghavi, Ali H Mokdad, Stephen S Lim, Simon I Hay, Emmanuela Gakidou, Christopher J L Murray.
Affiliations
Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (H Wang PhD, K R Paulson MPH, S A Pease BS, S Watson MS, H Comfort MPH, Prof P Zheng PhD, A Y Aravkin PhD, C Bisignano MPH, R M Barber BS, T Alam MPH, J E Fuller MIS, E A May BIE, D P Jones BS, M E Frisch BA, A Allorant PhD, J O Amlag MPH, B Bang-Jensen MA, G J Bertolacci BS, S S Bloom BA, A Carter MPH, E Castro MS, S Chakrabarti MA, J Chattopadhyay MS, R M Cogen BA, J K Collins BS, K Cooperrider BA, X Dai PhD, W J Dangel MEd, F Daoud BS, C Dapper MA, A Deen MPH, M Erickson MA, S B Ewald MS, T Fedosseeva MSc, A J Ferrari PhD, J J Frostad MPH, N Fullman MPH, J Gallagher MPA, G Guo MPH, J He MSc, M Helak BA, E N Hulland MPH, B M Huntley BA, A Lazzar-Atwood BSc, K E LeGrand MPH, E Linebarger BA, Prof R Lozano MD, J Månsson MS, P Naik MSPH, E G O'Brien MSc, J K O'Halloran MS, S M Ostroff PhD, L Penberthy MS, R C Reiner Jr PhD, G Reinke MA, D F Santomauro PhD, D H Shaw MSc, B S Sheena BS, A Sholokhov MSc, R J D Sorensen MPH, E E Spurlock MPH, R Syailendrawati MA, C E Troeger MPH, A Walker MA, B Zigler MPH, D M Pigott PhD, Prof M Naghavi PhD, A H Mokdad PhD, Prof S S Lim PhD, Prof S I Hay DSc, Prof E Gakidou PhD, Prof C J L Murray DPhil), Department of Health Metrics Sciences, School of Medicine (H Wang PhD, Prof P Zheng PhD, A Y Aravkin PhD, X Dai PhD, Prof R Lozano MD, A T Misganaw PhD, R C Reiner Jr PhD, D M Pigott PhD, Prof M Naghavi PhD, A H Mokdad PhD, Prof S S Lim PhD, Prof S I Hay DSc, Prof E Gakidou PhD, Prof C J L Murray DPhil), Department of Applied Mathematics (A Y Aravkin PhD), Department of Political Science (Prof C Adolph PhD), Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences (Prof C Adolph PhD), Department of Global Health (S Chakrabarti MA, E N Hulland MPH, R J D Sorensen MPH), Henry M Jackson School of International Studies (S M Ostroff PhD), Evans School of Public Policy & Governance (R Walcott MPH), University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA; Department of Juridical and Economic Studies (C Abbafati PhD), La Sapienza University, Rome, Italy; Postgraduate Program in Epidemiology (Prof B B Duncan MD, Prof M I Schmidt PhD), Federal University of Rio Grande do Sul, Porto Alegre, Brazil; School of Public Health (A J Ferrari PhD, A Lindstrom MEpi, A M Mantilla Herrera PhD, D F Santomauro PhD), The University of Queensland, Brisbane, QLD, Australia; Medical Statistics Department (N Skhvitaridze MBA), National Center for Disease Control and Public Health (Prof A Gamkrelidze PhD, M Kereselidze PhD), Tbilisi, Georgia; Nuffield Department of Clinical Medicine (N J Henry BS), University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; School of Public Health (A Lindstrom MEpi), West Moreton Hospital Health Services (A M Mantilla Herrera PhD), Policy and Epidemiology Group (D F Santomauro PhD), Queensland Centre for Mental Health Research, Wacol, QLD, Australia; Department of Medicine (Prof P A Lotufo DrPH), University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil; Munk School of Global Affairs and Public Policy (B Magistro PhD), University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; Department of Maternal and Child Nursing and Public Health (Prof D C Malta PhD), Department of Public Health (F Marinho PhD), Department of Internal Medicine (Prof A P Ribeiro MD), Centre of Telehealth (Prof A P Ribeiro MD), Federal University of Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil; Department of Public Health (F Marinho PhD), Vital Strategies, São Paulo, Brazil; National Data Management Center for Health (A H Mirkuzie PhD, A T Misganaw PhD, N A Worku MSc), Ethiopian Public Health Institute, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; Center for International Health (A H Mirkuzie PhD), University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway; Clinical Epidemiology and Public Health Research Unit (L Monasta DSc), Burlo Garofolo Institute for Maternal and Child Health, Trieste, Italy; Department of Health Policy and Management (S Nomura PhD), Keio University, Tokyo, Japan; Department of Global Health Policy (S Nomura PhD), University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan; School of Electrical and Computer Engineering (L T Olana BSc), Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; School of Health Sciences (N Skhvitaridze MBA), University of Georgia, Tbilisi, Georgia; Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences (E E Spurlock MPH), Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA; Institute of Public Health (R Topor-Madry PhD), Jagiellonian University Medical College, Kraków, Poland; Agency for Health Technology Assessment and Tariff System (R Topor-Madry PhD), Warsaw, Poland; Cochrane South Africa (Prof C S Wiysonge MD), South African Medical Research Council, Cape Town, South Africa; School of Public Health and Family Medicine (Prof C S Wiysonge MD), University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.

[Margin__Walker]

As someone who's been along for the ride, whilst not pretending to be an overnight expert in any of the data surrounding Covid, John Burn-Murdoch has been a superb and rational source of information.

[Dinsdale Piranha]

As someone who's been along for the ride, whilst not pretending to be an overnight expert in any of the data surrounding Covid, John Burn-Murdoch has been a superb and rational source of information.

Agree. Given that people with good maths skills who have been consistently correct during the pandemic are calling bullshit on The Lancet paper, I’ll trust them.

[C69]

Positive test this am after 5 days of symproms and 3 previous lat flow tests.

#prayforme

Mild aymptoms of head cold and coughing up phlegm.
Lots of lemsips and tissues at hand.

[mat the expat]

Positive test this am after 5 days of symproms and 3 previous lat flow tests.

#prayforme

Mild aymptoms of head cold and coughing up phlegm.
Lots of lemsips and tissues at hand.

/?
Here, a lot of people are getting negative RATs then PCR positive - BA2

[Slick]

Young daughter had a really bad day with it yesterday then startled complaining of a stiff neck and headache which had me in a total panic about meningitis.

A lot better today thankfully, did not enjoy that

[Ymx]

Positive test this am after 5 days of symproms and 3 previous lat flow tests.

#prayforme

Mild aymptoms of head cold and coughing up phlegm.
Lots of lemsips and tissues at hand.

/?
Here, a lot of people are getting negative RATs then PCR positive - BA2

Yep.

Remember reading about Omicron being less detectable in nasal passage, and how people need to tonsil swab as well for the lat flows.

It’s no wonder it spreads so efficiently. Very runny nose and sneezing add to that.

[SaintK]

Positive test this am after 5 days of symproms and 3 previous lat flow tests.

#prayforme

Mild aymptoms of head cold and coughing up phlegm.
Lots of lemsips and tissues at hand.

/?
Here, a lot of people are getting negative RATs then PCR positive - BA2

Yep.

Remember reading about Omicron being less detectable in nasal passage, and how people need to tonsil swab as well for the lat flows.

It’s no wonder it spreads so efficiently. Very runny nose and sneezing add to that.

Which is basically what my symptoms are since testing positive last Wednesday.
Kleenex shares must be booming!

[Dinsdale Piranha]

Positive test this am after 5 days of symproms and 3 previous lat flow tests.

#prayforme

Mild aymptoms of head cold and coughing up phlegm.
Lots of lemsips and tissues at hand.

/?
Here, a lot of people are getting negative RATs then PCR positive - BA2

Yep.

Remember reading about Omicron being less detectable in nasal passage, and how people need to tonsil swab as well for the lat flows.

It’s no wonder it spreads so efficiently. Very runny nose and sneezing add to that.

Same here. 3 days of mild symptoms - a cough - with negative LFTs before testing positive. I just assumed it was a regular chest infection.

[Ymx]

Here it was.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/scie ... 87954.html

And apols for posting an independent link.

[C69]

I will be off work for at least 5 days so will catch up some netfix shows and do some reading.
Have been banished to the spare room and have to wear a mask when my daughter is home from school.

I am basically a covid apartheid victim in my own home.

Until my wife tests positive tomorrow.

Lol

[fishfoodie]

I will be off work for at least 5 days so will catch up some netfix shows and do some reading.
Have been banished to the spare room and have to wear a mask when my daughter is home from school.

I am basically a covid apartheid victim in my own home.

Until my wife tests positive tomorrow.

Lol

Then you move out to a tent on the lawn, & she gets the spare room, right ?

[Guy Smiley]

I will be off work for at least 5 days so will catch up some netfix shows and do some reading.

I've been hitting Netflix a bit lately... random tip for you. I started watching The River Runner the other night and at first I had it pidgeon holed as a bit of a stereotypical US gung ho docuheroaction movie. It takes a surprising and heartwarming turn. Glad I watched it.

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt15293256/

[Biffer]

I will be off work for at least 5 days so will catch up some netfix shows and do some reading.

I've been hitting Netflix a bit lately... random tip for you. I started watching The River Runner the other night and at first I had it pidgeon holed as a bit of a stereotypical US gung ho docuheroaction movie. It takes a surprising and heartwarming turn. Glad I watched it.

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt15293256/

Best thing I’ve watched on Netflix recently was Archive 81

[Uncle fester]

I will be off work for at least 5 days so will catch up some netfix shows and do some reading.

I've been hitting Netflix a bit lately... random tip for you. I started watching The River Runner the other night and at first I had it pidgeon holed as a bit of a stereotypical US gung ho docuheroaction movie. It takes a surprising and heartwarming turn. Glad I watched it.

https://www.imdb.com/title/tt15293256/

Dark is my suggestion.

[JM2K6]

I see the zero covid nutters on twitter are still going strong...


Meanwhile back to reality:

So here's an excellent thread talking about the problems with the framing of that FT article:




TL;DR: We don't know the IFR of flu and it's likely to be far lower than suggested in that article, which also neglects to mention that even if you are as likely to die of flu as of covid (which isn't borne out by stats at the moment) if you get infected, there's a much, much larger change of getting infected with covid than with flu.

[Margin__Walker]

Flu normally kills 4 people a day in the UK? That sounds very low

[JM2K6]

Flu normally kills 4 people a day in the UK? That sounds very low

The thread goes into this. Seems like there's quite a bit of argument about 'flu deaths. And the data set they used in the FT piece had "only 1.7 deaths per 100k mentioned influenza ANYWHERE on the death certificate. The study then goes on to add in all respiratory related deaths during flu season, circulatory deaths, and all cause mortality, in their modelling"

[Margin__Walker]

Interesting. Remember seeing pre pandemic figures of recorded flu deaths much higher than 4 a day (10s of thousands a year)

The issue I'd have with the 4 per day vs 100 per day, is that he's taken the absolute lowest interpretation for Flu and the highest for Covid (there aren't 100 people a day dying primarily of Covid). It seems a pretty sloppy comparison to the layman.

[JM2K6]

Interesting. Remember seeing pre pandemic figures of recorded flu deaths much higher than 4 a day (10s of thousands a year)

The issue I'd have with the 4 per day vs 100 per day, is that he's taken the absolute lowest interpretation for Flu and the highest for Covid (there aren't 100 people a day dying primarily of Covid). It seems a pretty sloppy comparison to the layman.

He's using the same methodology for both, no?

[Margin__Walker]

Interesting. Remember seeing pre pandemic figures of recorded flu deaths much higher than 4 a day (10s of thousands a year)

The issue I'd have with the 4 per day vs 100 per day, is that he's taken the absolute lowest interpretation for Flu and the highest for Covid (there aren't 100 people a day dying primarily of Covid). It seems a pretty sloppy comparison to the layman.

He's using the same methodology for both, no?

It doesn't feel like it.

So the ONS has England and Wales deaths from influenza as:

2018 - 1,596 (4.3 a day)
2019 - 1,213 (3.3)

So in the 4 a day in normal times ballpark

But then the ONS also have figures for Influenza and Pneumonia

2018 - 29,451 (80.7)
2019 - 26,342 (72.2)

The 100 a day Covid deaths is deaths within 28 days (from memory) of a positive covid test and will absolutely be inclusive of pneumonia and other incidental cases.

I agree that Covid is clearly the bigger threat, but the 4 v 100 figure just seems pretty disingenuous to me.

[JM2K6]

Interesting. Remember seeing pre pandemic figures of recorded flu deaths much higher than 4 a day (10s of thousands a year)

The issue I'd have with the 4 per day vs 100 per day, is that he's taken the absolute lowest interpretation for Flu and the highest for Covid (there aren't 100 people a day dying primarily of Covid). It seems a pretty sloppy comparison to the layman.

He's using the same methodology for both, no?

It doesn't feel like it.

So the ONS has England and Wales deaths from influenza as:

2018 - 1,596 (4.3 a day)
2019 - 1,213 (3.3)

So in the 4 a day in normal times ballpark

But then the ONS also have figures for Influenza and Pneumonia

2018 - 29,451 (80.7)
2019 - 26,342 (72.2)

The 100 a day Covid deaths is deaths within 28 days (from memory) of a positive covid test and will absolutely be inclusive of pneumonia and other incidental cases.

I agree that Covid is clearly the bigger threat, but the 4 v 100 figure just seems pretty disingenuous to me.

The 100 a day is deaths with Covid on the death certificate, which is his point - the FT uses figures where influenza isn't on the certificate and is just swept up in the mass of respiratory conditions etc, plenty of which won't be caused by flu. Even you're pointing at Influenza AND Pneumonia with the ONS figures... Covid might well be causing more deaths than is recorded because of the impact it has on the heart, circulatory system, and respiratory system - if you die >28 days from a stroke that you wouldn't have had were it not for Covid, you don't get recorded as a Covid death.

You don't end up with Covid on the death certificate unless it was contributory in some way.

Additionally, there's also the question of how rigorous the testing for flu is. No-one really does it the same way we test for Covid; the numbers could easily be way off - who on earth is going to be recording asymptomatic flu?

[Margin__Walker]

He's using the same methodology for both, no?

It doesn't feel like it.

So the ONS has England and Wales deaths from influenza as:

2018 - 1,596 (4.3 a day)
2019 - 1,213 (3.3)

So in the 4 a day in normal times ballpark

But then the ONS also have figures for Influenza and Pneumonia

2018 - 29,451 (80.7)
2019 - 26,342 (72.2)

The 100 a day Covid deaths is deaths within 28 days (from memory) of a positive covid test and will absolutely be inclusive of pneumonia and other incidental cases.

I agree that Covid is clearly the bigger threat, but the 4 v 100 figure just seems pretty disingenuous to me.

The 100 a day is deaths with Covid on the death certificate, which is his point - the FT uses figures where influenza isn't on the certificate and is just swept up in the mass of respiratory conditions etc, plenty of which won't be caused by flu. Even you're pointing at Influenza AND Pneumonia with the ONS figures... Covid might well be causing more deaths than is recorded because of the impact it has on the heart, circulatory system, and respiratory system - if you die >28 days from a stroke that you wouldn't have had were it not for Covid, you don't get recorded as a Covid death.

You don't end up with Covid on the death certificate unless it was contributory in some way.

Additionally, there's also the question of how rigorous the testing for flu is. No-one really does it the same way we test for Covid; the numbers could easily be way off - who on earth is going to be recording asymptomatic flu?

That's the problem with the comparison though. Unless I'm miss reading the ONS figures above here (a possibility) more than 4 a day death certs have influenza listed

[JM2K6]

It doesn't feel like it.

So the ONS has England and Wales deaths from influenza as:

2018 - 1,596 (4.3 a day)
2019 - 1,213 (3.3)

So in the 4 a day in normal times ballpark

But then the ONS also have figures for Influenza and Pneumonia

2018 - 29,451 (80.7)
2019 - 26,342 (72.2)

The 100 a day Covid deaths is deaths within 28 days (from memory) of a positive covid test and will absolutely be inclusive of pneumonia and other incidental cases.

I agree that Covid is clearly the bigger threat, but the 4 v 100 figure just seems pretty disingenuous to me.

The 100 a day is deaths with Covid on the death certificate, which is his point - the FT uses figures where influenza isn't on the certificate and is just swept up in the mass of respiratory conditions etc, plenty of which won't be caused by flu. Even you're pointing at Influenza AND Pneumonia with the ONS figures... Covid might well be causing more deaths than is recorded because of the impact it has on the heart, circulatory system, and respiratory system - if you die >28 days from a stroke that you wouldn't have had were it not for Covid, you don't get recorded as a Covid death.

You don't end up with Covid on the death certificate unless it was contributory in some way.

Additionally, there's also the question of how rigorous the testing for flu is. No-one really does it the same way we test for Covid; the numbers could easily be way off - who on earth is going to be recording asymptomatic flu?

That's the problem with the comparison though. Unless I'm miss reading the ONS figures above here (a possibility) more than 4 a day death certs have influenza listed

My understanding is the ONS figures are flu and pneumonia (and other respiratory stuff) lumped together. He explains the discrepancy with the numbers from the FT's data set. Essentially, the only way to do an apples to apples comparison (mentioned on the death certificate) changes things drastically

[C69]

Just a word of caution, death certificates are in the most part guess work and not really that useful or accurate.

Having been part of an audit team that carried out a study related to this I am less than convinced by their accuracy.

Also NHS coding generally is appalling and pretty useless.

[Biffer]

I reckon China are in a great deal of difficulty about where they go from here. Their vaccination rates amongst the oldest groups aren't so great (and are mostly Sinovac) so what's happening in Hong Kong will likely repeat across mainland China when they try to open up. The sensible public health thing to do would be to boost with an mRNA vaccine but that would be politically unacceptable.

[TB63]

Seems to be ramping up now, my S in L has it again, (3rd time), quite ill with it but not close to being hospitalised, daughter has it now. Both fully vaxxed also. Client I'm working for has it, as does all his family..

[dpedin]

Contrary to popular belief the dreaded covid hasn't gone away! I hear that some modelling is suggesting another potential wave, there are some serious concerns about some new variants emerging which seem to be more serious in causing ill health/hospitalisations running alongside the vaccine waning. Numbers are creeping up. Fingers crossed!

Don't say you weren't warned guys!

[mat the expat]

South Korea had 400, 000 cases yesterday!

[JM2K6]

I reckon China are in a great deal of difficulty about where they go from here. Their vaccination rates amongst the oldest groups aren't so great (and are mostly Sinovac) so what's happening in Hong Kong will likely repeat across mainland China when they try to open up. The sensible public health thing to do would be to boost with an mRNA vaccine but that would be politically unacceptable.

The framing here seems odd - "Hong Kong Omicron deaths expose limits of fraying zero-Covid policy"? Especially given this:

Every country in the region has faced a rude awakening after two years of minimal Covid transmission but, unlike Hong Kong, most have been spared a wave of severe illness after using the time bought by zero-Covid to vaccinate large swaths of their vulnerable population.

The whole point of zero Covid was to stamp down and eliminate the virus as much as possible while buying time for vaccination efforts, and taking measures to prevent the spread of the disease. Not vaccinating is the problem here, not the concept of zero Covid. The other countries "abandoned" zero Covid because unlike a lot of people taking a stance on these issues, they're not actually driven by ideology: they went with zero Covid for as long as possible, but accept the reality of the impossibility of preventing the spread of an incredibly infectious strain even among a mostly vaccinated population.

The focus here should be on Hong Kong's failure to vaccinate.