NPR

dpedin wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 6:54 pm

I clicked on this twitter link and got access - try this and see.

dpedin wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 8:29 pm Case numbers are now a complete waste of time so was looking at covid deaths for every Tuesday in March and into April, Tuesdays tend to have the highest number of deaths following weekends but I am more interested in the trend:

1st - 194
8th - 212
15th - 222
22nd - 250
29th - 303
5th Ap - 368

A nearly 90% increase over the period - hopefully the trend will slow down and reverse soon! Anyway if we just ignore this and pretend its not happening it will just go away ... right?

Grandpa wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 8:32 pm

dpedin wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 8:29 pm Case numbers are now a complete waste of time so was looking at covid deaths for every Tuesday in March and into April, Tuesdays tend to have the highest number of deaths following weekends but I am more interested in the trend:

1st - 194
8th - 212
15th - 222
22nd - 250
29th - 303
5th Ap - 368

A nearly 90% increase over the period - hopefully the trend will slow down and reverse soon! Anyway if we just ignore this and pretend its not happening it will just go away ... right?

Hospitalisations is the big figure as that's money and pressure. Govt cares more about that than deaths. How are hospitalisations doing? Rising as well presumably?

dpedin wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 8:41 pm

Grandpa wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 8:32 pm

dpedin wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 8:29 pm Case numbers are now a complete waste of time so was looking at covid deaths for every Tuesday in March and into April, Tuesdays tend to have the highest number of deaths following weekends but I am more interested in the trend:

1st - 194
8th - 212
15th - 222
22nd - 250
29th - 303
5th Ap - 368

A nearly 90% increase over the period - hopefully the trend will slow down and reverse soon! Anyway if we just ignore this and pretend its not happening it will just go away ... right?

Hospitalisations is the big figure as that's money and pressure. Govt cares more about that than deaths. How are hospitalisations doing? Rising as well presumably?

Hospitalisations for same dates:

1st - 10,908
8th. - 11,825
15th. - 14,257
22nd - 16,850
29th - 19,464
4th Ap - 20,398

An 87% increase in hospitalisations. Again folk will claim some are 'with' and not 'because of' covid but you are right in that doesn't matter in a hospital, these covid numbers put a huge strain on services and reduces the actual number of operational beds available, etc. Also staff covid absences are going through the roof. This is a really difficult period for NHS as most leave years run April to March so many staff are taking annual leave before end of March or may be allowed to carry it over into early April - couple this with Easter school holidays and high covid absence rates then this is a perfect storm for staff availability.

Margin__Walker wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 8:47 pm There won't be further restrictions (this wave anyway). Infections now falling rapidly (50k today, down from 80k last Tuesday) which will work through hospitalisations and then deaths.

Ymx wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 8:50 pm Excess deaths is looking fine

https://app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoi ... IsImMiOjh9

As in its negative at present

dpedin wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 8:41 pm

Grandpa wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 8:32 pm

dpedin wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 8:29 pm Case numbers are now a complete waste of time so was looking at covid deaths for every Tuesday in March and into April, Tuesdays tend to have the highest number of deaths following weekends but I am more interested in the trend:

1st - 194
8th - 212
15th - 222
22nd - 250
29th - 303
5th Ap - 368

A nearly 90% increase over the period - hopefully the trend will slow down and reverse soon! Anyway if we just ignore this and pretend its not happening it will just go away ... right?

Hospitalisations is the big figure as that's money and pressure. Govt cares more about that than deaths. How are hospitalisations doing? Rising as well presumably?

Hospitalisations for same dates:

1st - 10,908
8th. - 11,825
15th. - 14,257
22nd - 16,850
29th - 19,464
4th Ap - 20,398

An 87% increase in hospitalisations. Again folk will claim some are 'with' and not 'because of' covid but you are right in that doesn't matter in a hospital, these covid numbers put a huge strain on services and reduces the actual number of operational beds available, etc. Also staff covid absences are going through the roof. This is a really difficult period for NHS as most leave years run April to March so many staff are taking annual leave before end of March or may be allowed to carry it over into early April - couple this with Easter school holidays and high covid absence rates then this is a perfect storm for staff availability.

dpedin wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 8:59 pm

Margin__Walker wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 8:47 pm There won't be further restrictions (this wave anyway). Infections now falling rapidly (50k today, down from 80k last Tuesday) which will work through hospitalisations and then deaths.

Problem with case numbers is they are now irrelevant - many folk not buying them nor sending in their results of LFTs. Best to ignore case numbers now.

ONS data is a better indicator of community spread now - their data suggests number of cases are rising in Wales, England and NI but falling slightly in Scotland, albeit they have had the highest rate since mid Feb. Currently estimate about 1 in 13 currently have covid in UK. As a trend England were estimated at 1 in 30 at the end of Feb, are at 1 in 13 (as at 1st April) and trend is upwards. Omicron BA.2 is the problem. Also as hospitalisations and deaths are lag indicators they will possibly rise for a few weeks yet?

ONS take samples from a sample of the pop on a regular - weekly or monthly - basis regardless of whether folk are showing symptoms or not and use this to extrapolate the number of people with covid. They use PCR testing and also take blood samples for some participants to see if antibodies are present. It is a very robust study.

dpedin wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 8:41 pm

Grandpa wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 8:32 pm

dpedin wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 8:29 pm Case numbers are now a complete waste of time so was looking at covid deaths for every Tuesday in March and into April, Tuesdays tend to have the highest number of deaths following weekends but I am more interested in the trend:

1st - 194
8th - 212
15th - 222
22nd - 250
29th - 303
5th Ap - 368

A nearly 90% increase over the period - hopefully the trend will slow down and reverse soon! Anyway if we just ignore this and pretend its not happening it will just go away ... right?

Hospitalisations is the big figure as that's money and pressure. Govt cares more about that than deaths. How are hospitalisations doing? Rising as well presumably?

Hospitalisations for same dates:

1st - 10,908
8th. - 11,825
15th. - 14,257
22nd - 16,850
29th - 19,464
4th Ap - 20,398

An 87% increase in hospitalisations. Again folk will claim some are 'with' and not 'because of' covid but you are right in that doesn't matter in a hospital, these covid numbers put a huge strain on services and reduces the actual number of operational beds available, etc. Also staff covid absences are going through the roof. This is a really difficult period for NHS as most leave years run April to March so many staff are taking annual leave before end of March or may be allowed to carry it over into early April - couple this with Easter school holidays and high covid absence rates then this is a perfect storm for staff availability.

EnergiseR2 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 7:08 am To put in context how the world has lost its collective mind, and probably what happens when you allow the science wonk Jeff Goldblums from Independance Day actually get control, in Shanghai they currently have 16k cases a day. That's in a population of nearly 30 million. Public health dude: 'Its extremely grim'. No it is not you massive massive spoofer. Though I suppose locking a load of people into a convention centre on camp beds is fairly fucked up alright

Margin__Walker wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 9:29 pm

dpedin wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 8:59 pm

Margin__Walker wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 8:47 pm There won't be further restrictions (this wave anyway). Infections now falling rapidly (50k today, down from 80k last Tuesday) which will work through hospitalisations and then deaths.

Problem with case numbers is they are now irrelevant - many folk not buying them nor sending in their results of LFTs. Best to ignore case numbers now.

ONS data is a better indicator of community spread now - their data suggests number of cases are rising in Wales, England and NI but falling slightly in Scotland, albeit they have had the highest rate since mid Feb. Currently estimate about 1 in 13 currently have covid in UK. As a trend England were estimated at 1 in 30 at the end of Feb, are at 1 in 13 (as at 1st April) and trend is upwards. Omicron BA.2 is the problem. Also as hospitalisations and deaths are lag indicators they will possibly rise for a few weeks yet?

ONS take samples from a sample of the pop on a regular - weekly or monthly - basis regardless of whether folk are showing symptoms or not and use this to extrapolate the number of people with covid. They use PCR testing and also take blood samples for some participants to see if antibodies are present. It is a very robust study.

Unless I'm mistaken the ONS data you quote is from week ending 26 March, not 1st April (happy to be corrected). I very much doubt it's still rising as at today, but let's see in a few weeks.

petej wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 9:08 pm

dpedin wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 8:41 pm

Grandpa wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 8:32 pm

Hospitalisations is the big figure as that's money and pressure. Govt cares more about that than deaths. How are hospitalisations doing? Rising as well presumably?

Hospitalisations for same dates:

1st - 10,908
8th. - 11,825
15th. - 14,257
22nd - 16,850
29th - 19,464
4th Ap - 20,398

An 87% increase in hospitalisations. Again folk will claim some are 'with' and not 'because of' covid but you are right in that doesn't matter in a hospital, these covid numbers put a huge strain on services and reduces the actual number of operational beds available, etc. Also staff covid absences are going through the roof. This is a really difficult period for NHS as most leave years run April to March so many staff are taking annual leave before end of March or may be allowed to carry it over into early April - couple this with Easter school holidays and high covid absence rates then this is a perfect storm for staff availability.

At some point you stop isolating patients with COVID from other patients.

petej wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 7:18 am

EnergiseR2 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 7:08 am To put in context how the world has lost its collective mind, and probably what happens when you allow the science wonk Jeff Goldblums from Independance Day actually get control, in Shanghai they currently have 16k cases a day. That's in a population of nearly 30 million. Public health dude: 'Its extremely grim'. No it is not you massive massive spoofer. Though I suppose locking a load of people into a convention centre on camp beds is fairly fucked up alright

The media loves to interview outliers and wants simple with no nuance. The Chinese do have a problem with a much lower immunity wall and poor vaccine uptake in the oldest age groups. I'm not sure you can believe the 16k figure.

dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 8:52 am

Margin__Walker wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 9:29 pm

dpedin wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 8:59 pm

Problem with case numbers is they are now irrelevant - many folk not buying them nor sending in their results of LFTs. Best to ignore case numbers now.

ONS data is a better indicator of community spread now - their data suggests number of cases are rising in Wales, England and NI but falling slightly in Scotland, albeit they have had the highest rate since mid Feb. Currently estimate about 1 in 13 currently have covid in UK. As a trend England were estimated at 1 in 30 at the end of Feb, are at 1 in 13 (as at 1st April) and trend is upwards. Omicron BA.2 is the problem. Also as hospitalisations and deaths are lag indicators they will possibly rise for a few weeks yet?

ONS take samples from a sample of the pop on a regular - weekly or monthly - basis regardless of whether folk are showing symptoms or not and use this to extrapolate the number of people with covid. They use PCR testing and also take blood samples for some participants to see if antibodies are present. It is a very robust study.

Unless I'm mistaken the ONS data you quote is from week ending 26 March, not 1st April (happy to be corrected). I very much doubt it's still rising as at today, but let's see in a few weeks.

It was the ONS Study release date of 1st April that I was referring to - you are correct the data refers to week ending 26th. However the trends for England and Wales and NI I refer to are correct - all have been steadily increasing. I am not sure why you think the trend should be reversing this week?

dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 8:52 am

Margin__Walker wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 9:29 pm

dpedin wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 8:59 pm

Problem with case numbers is they are now irrelevant - many folk not buying them nor sending in their results of LFTs. Best to ignore case numbers now.

ONS data is a better indicator of community spread now - their data suggests number of cases are rising in Wales, England and NI but falling slightly in Scotland, albeit they have had the highest rate since mid Feb. Currently estimate about 1 in 13 currently have covid in UK. As a trend England were estimated at 1 in 30 at the end of Feb, are at 1 in 13 (as at 1st April) and trend is upwards. Omicron BA.2 is the problem. Also as hospitalisations and deaths are lag indicators they will possibly rise for a few weeks yet?

ONS take samples from a sample of the pop on a regular - weekly or monthly - basis regardless of whether folk are showing symptoms or not and use this to extrapolate the number of people with covid. They use PCR testing and also take blood samples for some participants to see if antibodies are present. It is a very robust study.

Unless I'm mistaken the ONS data you quote is from week ending 26 March, not 1st April (happy to be corrected). I very much doubt it's still rising as at today, but let's see in a few weeks.

It was the ONS Study release date of 1st April that I was referring to - you are correct the data refers to week ending 26th. However the trends for England and Wales and NI I refer to are correct - all have been steadily increasing. I am not sure why you think the trend should be reversing this week?

EnergiseR2 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 9:48 am

dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 9:18 am

petej wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 7:18 am
The media loves to interview outliers and wants simple with no nuance. The Chinese do have a problem with a much lower immunity wall and poor vaccine uptake in the oldest age groups. I'm not sure you can believe the 16k figure.

Energise - have you just woken up after a 2 year sleep?

I am not sure the Chinese would take the economic hit if they were not worried about the consequences of the recent outbreak in Shanghai. It is hard to believe the Chinese Gov is full of 'woke, lefty snowflake scientific wonks' willing to shut down a city of c30m just because of a harmless virus. They will have done the risk analysis and worked out this is the preferred option to whatever variant is taking hold in an under vaccinated population in a major commercial city and obviously spreading across the whole country. Omicron BA2 has a R of about 12 so I will let you do the sums to work out how quickly 16,000 cases becomes a major problem - clue it isn't very long at all.

Current estimates is covid has an IFR of 6 times that of flu which is bad. However the R number of flu is probably around 2, omicron BA2 is around 12 which means you are far more likely to contract covid than you are flu when both are circulating in a community. What does this mean for a real life IFR of covid - there is probably a 30+ times more likely chance of dying with covid than with flu. Think of the old H&S risk assessment matrix of likelihood x consequences the Chinese have worked out they are in the red zone.

.

Chinese aren't to be trusted. They are on my list with yanks and Kiwis and Western Australians and maths

Margin__Walker wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 9:55 am

dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 8:52 am

Margin__Walker wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 9:29 pm

Unless I'm mistaken the ONS data you quote is from week ending 26 March, not 1st April (happy to be corrected). I very much doubt it's still rising as at today, but let's see in a few weeks.

It was the ONS Study release date of 1st April that I was referring to - you are correct the data refers to week ending 26th. However the trends for England and Wales and NI I refer to are correct - all have been steadily increasing. I am not sure why you think the trend should be reversing this week?

The trends were correct to the week to 26 March.

The case number data now shows a rapid week on week decrease in positive cases as at yesterday. I doubt behaviour on test reporting has fundamentally shifted in the last week.

Margin__Walker wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 9:55 am I doubt behaviour on test reporting has fundamentally shifted in the last week.

dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 10:28 am
It has!

Problem is access to testing is now more difficult - many folk have to pay for a LFT in England now, most free testing sites have now closed, and many aren't buying LFTs or if they are aren't sending in their LFT tests online. Also messaging from Govs is essentially covid is over or it is nothing more than a mild flu so don't worry. Despite ONS study suggesting 1 in 12 in Scotland had covid the number of tests carried out last week dropped by 20%, in England the number of tests reported has dropped by almost 50% in recent weeks despite ONS study showing number of cases has gone up. The case info is interesting but isn't useful for monitoring trends or comparisons now - the data is too muddled and comparing like for like.

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 10:29 am

Margin__Walker wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 9:55 am I doubt behaviour on test reporting has fundamentally shifted in the last week.

Er, something major did happen on the 1st April wrt testing...

Grandpa wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 10:46 am

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 10:29 am

Margin__Walker wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 9:55 am I doubt behaviour on test reporting has fundamentally shifted in the last week.

Er, something major did happen on the 1st April wrt testing...

And it wasn't an April Fools... and it would have a dramatic effect on testing numbers one would think.

EnergiseR2 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 9:48 am

dpedin wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 9:18 am

petej wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 7:18 am
The media loves to interview outliers and wants simple with no nuance. The Chinese do have a problem with a much lower immunity wall and poor vaccine uptake in the oldest age groups. I'm not sure you can believe the 16k figure.

Energise - have you just woken up after a 2 year sleep?

I am not sure the Chinese would take the economic hit if they were not worried about the consequences of the recent outbreak in Shanghai. It is hard to believe the Chinese Gov is full of 'woke, lefty snowflake scientific wonks' willing to shut down a city of c30m just because of a harmless virus. They will have done the risk analysis and worked out this is the preferred option to whatever variant is taking hold in an under vaccinated population in a major commercial city and obviously spreading across the whole country. Omicron BA2 has a R of about 12 so I will let you do the sums to work out how quickly 16,000 cases becomes a major problem - clue it isn't very long at all.

Current estimates is covid has an IFR of 6 times that of flu which is bad. However the R number of flu is probably around 2, omicron BA2 is around 12 which means you are far more likely to contract covid than you are flu when both are circulating in a community. What does this mean for a real life IFR of covid - there is probably a 30+ times more likely chance of dying with covid than with flu. Think of the old H&S risk assessment matrix of likelihood x consequences the Chinese have worked out they are in the red zone.

.

Chinese aren't to be trusted. They are on my list with yanks and Kiwis and Western Australians and maths

dpedin wrote: ↑Tue Apr 05, 2022 11:28 am

You can buy FFP2 or FFP3 masks on Amazon - there are lots of shapes and designs - have a look. They are more comfortable to wear than surgical masks and fit better around the nose and moth. They are more expensive that surgical masks. Both give over 90% filtration rates - FFP3 highest. They are very common in number of industries ie building trade and are recommended by HSE in UK for lots of jobs which generate dust/particles, etc. If I was in a job in an enclosed area and/or with lots of people contact I would recommend using these. Research shows far lower levels of transmission when these are used.

The clever thing about these masks is that the filter materials are electrostatically charged so they attract particles/viruses and prevent them feeding through to be inhaled.

Calculon wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 11:17 am
I've mentioned it before on this thread but it’s a political decision for the CCP. They’ve been trumpeting their zero COVID strategy for the last two years and contrasting how effective it is against the decadent West’s policy of living with the virus. There’s been so much propaganda that a lot of Chinese think that getting COVID is pretty much a death sentence. It’s only now starting to change, with the Chinese government struggling to contain the latest outbreaks and most people testing positive actually having mild symptoms or being asymptomatic.

Margin__Walker wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 10:49 am

Grandpa wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 10:46 am

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 10:29 am

Er, something major did happen on the 1st April wrt testing...

And it wasn't an April Fools... and it would have a dramatic effect on testing numbers one would think.

Fair point JM, but the week on week daily case numbers were already declining prior in the week up to 1 April when the previous provision was in place.

Ymx wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 5:44 pm Indeed. Case numbers are pretty much meaningless over this period.

With covid v For covid is significant enough to distort covid hospital admissions - unless there is an excess hospitalisations metric somewhere??

And the other key metrics being ICU admissions and excess deaths. Though as it happens there is plenty of natural variance in excess deaths. And in fact excess death rates is going to be distorted for the next few years over the previous covid peaks of eg March/Apr 2020.

petej wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 5:56 pm

Ymx wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 5:44 pm Indeed. Case numbers are pretty much meaningless over this period.

With covid v For covid is significant enough to distort covid hospital admissions - unless there is an excess hospitalisations metric somewhere??

And the other key metrics being ICU admissions and excess deaths. Though as it happens there is plenty of natural variance in excess deaths. And in fact excess death rates is going to be distorted for the next few years over the previous covid peaks of eg March/Apr 2020.

I saw something in an article saying 85% with covid rather than for but not sure if anyone is really properly measuring it.

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 9:49 pm

petej wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 5:56 pm

Ymx wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 5:44 pm Indeed. Case numbers are pretty much meaningless over this period.

With covid v For covid is significant enough to distort covid hospital admissions - unless there is an excess hospitalisations metric somewhere??

And the other key metrics being ICU admissions and excess deaths. Though as it happens there is plenty of natural variance in excess deaths. And in fact excess death rates is going to be distorted for the next few years over the previous covid peaks of eg March/Apr 2020.

I saw something in an article saying 85% with covid rather than for but not sure if anyone is really properly measuring it.

And you have to be very careful with that anyway. If they're in hospital because something they have is made a lot worse by Covid, do you think that's with or for?

petej wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 11:26 pm

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 9:49 pm

petej wrote: ↑Wed Apr 06, 2022 5:56 pm

I saw something in an article saying 85% with covid rather than for but not sure if anyone is really properly measuring it.

And you have to be very careful with that anyway. If they're in hospital because something they have is made a lot worse by Covid, do you think that's with or for?

Yep. Life's messy.