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Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Mon Apr 11, 2022 12:10 pm
by mat the expat
JM2K6 wrote: Mon Apr 11, 2022 12:06 pm

It's not a binary thing, though. We could have a covid variant that doesn't put anyone in ventilation beds and it'd still be a serious public health issue. It's great that vaccines+boosters are having a big effect, and that Omicron is less deadly on top of that, but the NHS is still struggling to cope, lots of people are getting very sick, and there's a huge amount of concern over the long term effects of catching Covid.

"Learning to live with Covid" is not the same thing as pretending it doesn't exist. But it seems we're stuck between people trying to persuade others that the pandemic is still a thing and is still a real danger to our society, and those who believe that because the mortality rate has dropped with this set of vaccines + this variant that Covid is "over". What's frustrating to me about the latter group is the utter unwillingness to acknowledge that learning to live with Covid involves some efforts being made to reduce the risk of catching Covid in the first place, including mandating better ventilation, a change in how we behave as a society when we're symptomatic, vaccine boosters, etc.
There is too much "It wasn't that bad really, we didn't need to lockdown back then" Bullshit

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Mon Apr 11, 2022 12:10 pm
by Rinkals
Fair enough.

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Mon Apr 11, 2022 12:18 pm
by Ymx
mat the expat wrote: Mon Apr 11, 2022 12:10 pm
JM2K6 wrote: Mon Apr 11, 2022 12:06 pm

It's not a binary thing, though. We could have a covid variant that doesn't put anyone in ventilation beds and it'd still be a serious public health issue. It's great that vaccines+boosters are having a big effect, and that Omicron is less deadly on top of that, but the NHS is still struggling to cope, lots of people are getting very sick, and there's a huge amount of concern over the long term effects of catching Covid.

"Learning to live with Covid" is not the same thing as pretending it doesn't exist. But it seems we're stuck between people trying to persuade others that the pandemic is still a thing and is still a real danger to our society, and those who believe that because the mortality rate has dropped with this set of vaccines + this variant that Covid is "over". What's frustrating to me about the latter group is the utter unwillingness to acknowledge that learning to live with Covid involves some efforts being made to reduce the risk of catching Covid in the first place, including mandating better ventilation, a change in how we behave as a society when we're symptomatic, vaccine boosters, etc.
There is too much "It wasn't that bad really, we didn't need to lockdown back then" Bullshit
Except, no one has said remotely that nonsense on this thread, let alone portraying it as being said too much.

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Mon Apr 11, 2022 12:21 pm
by JM2K6
Ymx wrote: Mon Apr 11, 2022 12:18 pm
mat the expat wrote: Mon Apr 11, 2022 12:10 pm
JM2K6 wrote: Mon Apr 11, 2022 12:06 pm

It's not a binary thing, though. We could have a covid variant that doesn't put anyone in ventilation beds and it'd still be a serious public health issue. It's great that vaccines+boosters are having a big effect, and that Omicron is less deadly on top of that, but the NHS is still struggling to cope, lots of people are getting very sick, and there's a huge amount of concern over the long term effects of catching Covid.

"Learning to live with Covid" is not the same thing as pretending it doesn't exist. But it seems we're stuck between people trying to persuade others that the pandemic is still a thing and is still a real danger to our society, and those who believe that because the mortality rate has dropped with this set of vaccines + this variant that Covid is "over". What's frustrating to me about the latter group is the utter unwillingness to acknowledge that learning to live with Covid involves some efforts being made to reduce the risk of catching Covid in the first place, including mandating better ventilation, a change in how we behave as a society when we're symptomatic, vaccine boosters, etc.
There is too much "It wasn't that bad really, we didn't need to lockdown back then" Bullshit
Except, no one has said remotely that nonsense on this thread, let alone portraying it as being said too much.
Literally above your post we have ER saying the response was inappropriate

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Mon Apr 11, 2022 12:24 pm
by Margin__Walker
JM2K6 wrote: Mon Apr 11, 2022 12:06 pm
Margin__Walker wrote: Mon Apr 11, 2022 11:58 am
Rinkals wrote: Mon Apr 11, 2022 11:42 am

I am, for one.

I find the piss taking inappropriate for this thread.

I appreciate that others enjoy his banter, but the promotion of doubt about dangers of covid and the ability of measures to combat it risks encouraging a resistance to these measures.

For the time being, I am quite prepared to listen to what scientists tell us about the virus, and I accept that we are still learning about it, so things may change.
It works both ways though. It's like there's a dogma in place now where people pretend it's still 2020/2021 when the threat level was fundamentally different.

Yes it's still a significant public health challenge and there needs to be continuous vigilance for more threatening variants. But there are continued panicked posts on threads like this where the huge reduction of risk just doesn't seem to be acknowledged. We've had sky high infection in the UK in the last month and in Jan and barely any impact at all on the number of patients in mechanical ventilation beds.
It's not a binary thing, though. We could have a covid variant that doesn't put anyone in ventilation beds and it'd still be a serious public health issue. It's great that vaccines+boosters are having a big effect, and that Omicron is less deadly on top of that, but the NHS is still struggling to cope, lots of people are getting very sick, and there's a huge amount of concern over the long term effects of catching Covid.

"Learning to live with Covid" is not the same thing as pretending it doesn't exist. But it seems we're stuck between people trying to persuade others that the pandemic is still a thing and is still a real danger to our society, and those who believe that because the mortality rate has dropped with this set of vaccines + this variant that Covid is "over".
100% agree that it's not binary and it is a public health challenge. We can't just go back to 2019 and pretend it's all over. Still a huge amount of work to do on monitoring and continued vaccine research. Also look seriously at things like ventilation where it's cost effective.

The long term effects of catching Covid is a factor, but the horse has bolted to an extent for me. Most people have already had it, although clearly getting it again and again isn't ideal. I just don't see further restrictions being enacted on that basis.

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Mon Apr 11, 2022 12:30 pm
by Ymx
My view is
- with current vaccinations and the spread already taken place, this “variant” is no longer a major issue to public health that we need special mandates.
- people who wish to take ph mitigations can do so, but don’t expect it of others.
- if you get covid, behave as you would had you been infected by a nasty infectious illness, stay at home. But not by legal mandate, but how we traditionally behaved.
- should a new variant emerge then be at the ready to instigate mandated ph measures, in case there are forecasts which are “strongly likely” to add say 30-50% to excess deaths.
- but not sage forecasts. Sack them.

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Mon Apr 11, 2022 1:52 pm
by normilet
EnergiseR2 wrote: Mon Apr 11, 2022 12:08 pm "I appreciate that others enjoy his banter, but the promotion of doubt about dangers of covid and the ability of measures to combat it risks encouraging a resistance to these measures."

I didn't do that. You made that up completely Rinkals. The amount of binary nonsense the Internet throws up and people like you are at the forefront. I couldn't be less like what you are positing I am but sure its nice a neat pretending I am isn't it. This is why I went offline.
Come back to PR ER. It's become a beacon of lively discourse and healthy debate, with an underlying current of respect for each and every member.

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Mon Apr 11, 2022 2:52 pm
by Rinkals
My own view is that lockdowns were damaging, but necessary. The vaccine is a means of ensuring that the virus is a lot less dangerous, which should mean that lockdowns are unnecessary.

It baffles me that there is such a resistance to the one strategy which has the potential to make lockdown redundant.

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Mon Apr 11, 2022 3:12 pm
by Calculon
Rinkals wrote: Mon Apr 11, 2022 11:42 am
Calculon wrote: Mon Apr 11, 2022 11:26 am Who's irritated with everready?
I am, for one.

I find the piss taking inappropriate for this thread.

I appreciate that others enjoy his banter, but the promotion of doubt about dangers of covid and the ability of measures to combat it risks encouraging a resistance to these measures.

For the time being, I am quite prepared to listen to what scientists tell us about the virus, and I accept that we are still learning about it, so things may change.
Well I love his sense of humour, always have since PR. Surprised when people don't get it , even more astounded that someone thinks he is similar to bimbo. I live in a country where covid is zero concern to anyone, so that is pretty nice too.

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Mon Apr 11, 2022 4:14 pm
by Grandpa
Bimbo's humour is obviously unappreciated... :lolno:

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Mon Apr 11, 2022 5:18 pm
by Marylandolorian
Few weeks ago I asked if any of you were planing to get a second booster, I just read this article published last week.
It looks like if you are under 50 it isn’t really necessary, 50 to 65 mainly if you have some health issues , 65+ should

https://www.factcheck.org/2022/04/scich ... er-people/

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Mon Apr 11, 2022 6:59 pm
by Ymx
EnergiseR2 wrote: Mon Apr 11, 2022 3:01 pm
normilet wrote: Mon Apr 11, 2022 1:52 pm
EnergiseR2 wrote: Mon Apr 11, 2022 12:08 pm "I appreciate that others enjoy his banter, but the promotion of doubt about dangers of covid and the ability of measures to combat it risks encouraging a resistance to these measures."

I didn't do that. You made that up completely Rinkals. The amount of binary nonsense the Internet throws up and people like you are at the forefront. I couldn't be less like what you are positing I am but sure its nice a neat pretending I am isn't it. This is why I went offline.
Come back to PR ER. It's become a beacon of lively discourse and healthy debate, with an underlying current of respect for each and every member.
:lol:
Who here still posts on PR?

Rinkals ? Grandpa ?

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Mon Apr 11, 2022 7:06 pm
by Ymx
Marylandolorian wrote: Mon Apr 11, 2022 5:18 pm Few weeks ago I asked if any of you were planing to get a second booster, I just read this article published last week.
It looks like if you are under 50 it isn’t really necessary, 50 to 65 mainly if you have some health issues , 65+ should

https://www.factcheck.org/2022/04/scich ... er-people/
Aside from the above, it feels a bit soon personally speaking.

Perhaps if
- new variant if looking dangerous
- new universal vaccine
- covid stops spreading here for too long

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Mon Apr 11, 2022 7:16 pm
by Grandpa
Ymx wrote: Mon Apr 11, 2022 6:59 pm
EnergiseR2 wrote: Mon Apr 11, 2022 3:01 pm
normilet wrote: Mon Apr 11, 2022 1:52 pm

Come back to PR ER. It's become a beacon of lively discourse and healthy debate, with an underlying current of respect for each and every member.
:lol:
Who here still posts on PR?

Rinkals ? Grandpa ?
Quite a few do I think?
Dan54, Hellraiser, Flockwitt, Enzedder, PornDog, just off the top of my head... a few others I am sure.

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Mon Apr 11, 2022 9:19 pm
by Rinkals
Grandpa wrote: Mon Apr 11, 2022 4:14 pm Bimbo's humour is obviously unappreciated... :lolno:
That is unkind!!!

:lolno:

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Mon Apr 11, 2022 10:11 pm
by Ymx
Guys, over here

we don’t talk about Bimbo … no no no.

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Tue Apr 12, 2022 1:47 am
by Kiwias
Grandpa wrote: Mon Apr 11, 2022 7:16 pm
Ymx wrote: Mon Apr 11, 2022 6:59 pm
EnergiseR2 wrote: Mon Apr 11, 2022 3:01 pm

:lol:
Who here still posts on PR?

Rinkals ? Grandpa ?
Quite a few do I think?
Dan54, Hellraiser, Flockwitt, Enzedder, PornDog, just off the top of my head... a few others I am sure.
Kiwias but predominantly on the staying sober thread and SR match threads.

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Tue Apr 12, 2022 3:08 am
by MungoMan
Marylandolorian wrote: Mon Apr 11, 2022 5:18 pm Few weeks ago I asked if any of you were planing to get a second booster, I just read this article published last week.
It looks like if you are under 50 it isn’t really necessary, 50 to 65 mainly if you have some health issues , 65+ should

https://www.factcheck.org/2022/04/scich ... er-people/
I’m eligible for a second booster some time next month and will most likely get one. I’m 69, smoke and like to invade others’ personal space (altho’ not while smoking, typically. A solitary vice in my case).

The first booster was far easier to organise than the first two inoculations and involved a damned sight less waiting in line, mainly consequential to more doses of a greater number of vaccine types being readily available.

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Tue Apr 12, 2022 3:17 am
by Kiwias
Marylandolorian wrote: Mon Apr 11, 2022 5:18 pm Few weeks ago I asked if any of you were planing to get a second booster, I just read this article published last week.
It looks like if you are under 50 it isn’t really necessary, 50 to 65 mainly if you have some health issues , 65+ should

https://www.factcheck.org/2022/04/scich ... er-people/
68 and definitely planning on getting the second booster when my gp recommends it.

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Tue Apr 12, 2022 5:20 am
by Rinkals
Ymx wrote: Mon Apr 11, 2022 6:59 pm

Who here still posts on PR?

Rinkals ? Grandpa ?
Fuck, no.

I used to occasionally lurk, just to marvel at the batshit stuff getting posted, but, since they denied access without logging in, I haven't even done that.

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Tue Apr 12, 2022 6:53 am
by Enzedder
I still post there because it is so quiet on here during the day. Mainly the covid and politics threads but also Super Rugby match threads.

Also, having taken up the mod banner there too means I swap a lot between the 2 sites. We are getting over a hundred spam registrations a day and some of them are bloody hard to spot. Fucking Russians!!!

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Tue Apr 12, 2022 10:06 am
by dpedin
Kiwias wrote: Tue Apr 12, 2022 3:17 am
Marylandolorian wrote: Mon Apr 11, 2022 5:18 pm Few weeks ago I asked if any of you were planing to get a second booster, I just read this article published last week.
It looks like if you are under 50 it isn’t really necessary, 50 to 65 mainly if you have some health issues , 65+ should

https://www.factcheck.org/2022/04/scich ... er-people/
68 and definitely planning on getting the second booster when my gp recommends it.
Will get it when eligible and called up - why not?

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Tue Apr 12, 2022 10:54 am
by Tichtheid
"Herd immunity now seems impossible. Welcome to the age of Covid reinfection
Devi Sridhar"

She says, keep testing, isolate one person who is positive - it's better than everyone at work getting ill, roll out anti viral pills, push on with vaccines, continue with masks


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... irus-world


My wife is fully vaxxed, two jabs and a booster, and she is currently ill after a positive test a few days ago.

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Tue Apr 12, 2022 11:15 am
by dpedin
Tichtheid wrote: Tue Apr 12, 2022 10:54 am "Herd immunity now seems impossible. Welcome to the age of Covid reinfection
Devi Sridhar"

She says, keep testing, isolate one person who is positive - it's better than everyone at work getting ill, roll out anti viral pills, push on with vaccines, continue with masks


https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... irus-world


My wife is fully vaxxed, two jabs and a booster, and she is currently ill after a positive test a few days ago.
Her article is pretty good at summarising exactly where we are at and what we need to do going forward. Throughout the pandemic Sridhar has been excellent, usually spot on and not afraid of accepting new evidence and, as she says in her article, changing her views when new scientific evidence emerged. Unfortunately the UK Gov have decided to now ignore not just the covid pandemic but the science and anything they should be doing to manage it. We are not living with covid, we are just ignoring it and wishing it will go away. This ain't going to happen I'm afraid.

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Wed Apr 13, 2022 5:28 am
by Ymx
EnergiseR2 wrote: Tue Apr 12, 2022 9:59 am One of the matters that drove my disquiet was the supression of all matters of healthcare at the altar of covid and it still goes on. I bored people with my scan and scope travails but in short I have now had two scopes in a period I should have had 8. I am due another but because I am going to the US my next one is cancelled. Have to not have been abroad for the previous 14 days. Next appointment available is June. They know the 14 day thing is bullshit but they are in it to win it at this stage. And it just rolls on
ER, is this post cancer treatment testing you are talking about here? Not being on PR for some time, I’ve not heard your story, and likely the same for others. Please do share.

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Sat Apr 16, 2022 12:16 pm
by Calculon
A case for live attenuated virus vaccine boosters and not putting all our eggs in the mRNA basket


Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Sat Apr 16, 2022 2:19 pm
by petej
https://www.economist.com/britain/2022/ ... o-catch-up
Not surprising. I can remember my son being absolutely freaked out a year a go having had very few people come into our house for ages when my brother's family visited

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Sat Apr 16, 2022 3:22 pm
by Biffer
petej wrote: Sat Apr 16, 2022 2:19 pm https://www.economist.com/britain/2022/ ... o-catch-up
Not surprising. I can remember my son being absolutely freaked out a year a go having had very few people come into our house for ages when my brother's family visited
Friends of mine had a baby in April 2020, a few weeks into the first lockdown. With the various restrictions etc, the wee one didn’t see vary many people in the first year. When they finally had about a dozen people round in the garden in the late summer of 2021, the wee one was a astonished. Don’t think she thought there were that many people in the world!

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Sun Apr 17, 2022 9:48 am
by Ymx
A slight tangent but interesting

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/covi ... -5h20jkzkt

Covid vaccine technology could create first cure for heart attacks

Professor Mauro Giacca, in white, and his team at King’s College London are leading research into the RNA treatment, funded by the British Heart Foundation
Professor Mauro Giacca, in white, and his team at King’s College London are leading research into the RNA treatment, funded by the British Heart Foundation


BRITISH HEART FOUNDATION

Eleanor Hayward, Health Correspondent
Friday April 15 2022, 3.00pm, The Times

Damaged hearts are being regenerated using the same technology as Covid vaccines in an effort to develop the world’s first cure for heart attack victims.

Scientists at King’s College London have identified key genetic codes — called mRNAs — which produce proteins that stimulate the creation of healthy new heart cells.

The ground-breaking research has also identified proteins that could be injected into heart attack patients in the back of an ambulance to prevent heart cells dying.

About 100,000 people are admitted to UK hospitals each year after a heart attack, which occurs when blood supply to the heart is blocked, causing up to one billion heart cells to die.

Because the human heart has no ability to repair itself, victims are left with a permanent scar that often leads to debilitating and potentially deadly heart failure.

The new RNA (ribonucleic acid) therapy has the potential to transform cardiovascular medicine and prevent millions of heart attack victims developing heart failure.

So far the revolutionary approach has been successfully used to regenerate damaged pig hearts and is due to start human trials within two years.

Professor Mauro Giacca, who is leading the research, said: “We are all born with a set number of muscle cells in our heart and they are exactly the same ones we will die with. The heart has no capacity to repair itself after a heart attack. Our goal has been to find a treatment that can convince surviving cells to proliferate.

“Regenerating a damaged human heart has been a dream until a few years ago, but can now become a reality.
“We are using exactly the same technology as the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines to inject micro RNAs to the heart, reaching surviving heart cells and pushing their proliferation. The new cells would replace the dead ones and instead of forming a scar, the patient has new muscle tissue.”

Giacca’s team, based at the British Heart Foundation Centre for Research Excellence at King’s, is also developing a treatment to prevent cells from dying during a heart attack

Giacca said: “We have identified three proteins which stop heart cells from dying by encouraging them to repair themselves. The idea is to now produce these proteins so they can be injected immediately after a heart attack — in the back of an ambulance or when the patient reaches the hospital.”

After a patient’s condition has stabilised, the other therapy — encouraging the growth of healthy heart tissue — could then be delivered directly to the coronary artery via a catheter.

Giacca said: “If clinical trials go well it would be blockbuster medicine in the history of cardiology. Both approaches are super-exciting. It would be really transformative. It is a completely new territory.

“The treatment revolution that has occurred in cancer in recent years, where there is immunotherapy and targeted biological therapies, has not occurred for the heart. Treatment for heart attacks and heart failure remains very similar to 50 years ago and the main pillars of therapy are drugs that were developed in the 1970s such as beta-blockers and ACE inhibitors.”

Giacca, who moved to London from the University of Trieste in 2019, acknowledged there were challenges ahead but was optimistic human trials would be completed within three years.

He said: “Testing has so far been on mice and pigs that are young and healthy, not an elderly human. But there is no way of solving that except during the trial.”

His research is funded by the British Heart Foundation (BHF), which is aiming to raise £3 million for studies into regenerative medicine as Charity of the Year for the 2022 TCS London Marathon.

Professor Sir Nilesh Samani, medical director of the BHF, said: “Heart failure is a debilitating condition that dramatically affects the lives of almost one million people in the UK. BHF-funded research has spearheaded treatments to give people with heart failure longer, healthier lives, but there is no cure. Regenerative medicine offers that hope.

“The money raised by the 2022 TCS London Marathon will enable Professor Giacca and his team to push the boundaries of science by finding ways to teach the heart to repair itself. Unlocking these secrets could help heal hearts and transform the outcomes for people living with heart failure.”

Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine led the way for RNA treatment
Before the pandemic, medical research into a type of genetic code called RNA was considered an obscure and experimental field (Eleanor Hayward writes).

Then, in December 2020, the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine was approved by medical regulators, becoming not only the world’s first Covid-19 jab but also the first ever RNA treatment.

RNA molecules are the messengers which translate DNA, your genetic code, into instructions for cells to make the millions of different proteins vital for our bodies to function.

Scientists have now figured out a way of hijacking this process, inserting synthetic RNA into human cells so they produce whatever specific type of protein they desire.

The Pfizer and Moderna messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccines, for example, contain a genetic instruction for cells to produce the spike protein of the Covid-19 virus.
This then causes the body to produce antibodies against the spike protein, training the immune system to act quickly when infected with the real thing.

The RNA in the vaccine solution is “hidden” inside lipid nanoparticles — harmless fatty molecules — so it can get inside human cells without being destroyed by the immune system after being injected.

The rapid development and success of these Covid mRNA vaccines has opened the floodgates for similar treatments, leading to billions of dollars in investment in RNA technology.

Trials of an mRNA HIV vaccine got under way earlier this year and scientists believe the technology could also be used to treat cancer, rabies and malaria.

If the research by the team at King’s College London into mRNA heart attack treatments comes off, it would represent the biggest breakthrough in cardiovascular medicine for decades, with the potential to benefit millions each year.
Edit: pasted in full article

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Sun Apr 17, 2022 11:52 am
by Grandpa
Ymx wrote: Sun Apr 17, 2022 9:48 am A slight tangent but interesting

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/covi ... -5h20jkzkt

Covid vaccine technology could create first cure for heart attacks

Professor Mauro Giacca, in white, and his team at King’s College London are leading research into the RNA treatment, funded by the British Heart Foundation
Professor Mauro Giacca, in white, and his team at King’s College London are leading research into the RNA treatment, funded by the British Heart Foundation


BRITISH HEART FOUNDATION

Eleanor Hayward, Health Correspondent
Friday April 15 2022, 3.00pm, The Times

Damaged hearts are being regenerated using the same technology as Covid vaccines in an effort to develop the world’s first cure for heart attack victims.

Scientists at King’s College London have identified key genetic codes — called mRNAs — which produce proteins that stimulate the creation of healthy new heart cells.
For those who don't have access to The Times, similar article here...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... cines.html

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2022 8:59 am
by Ymx
Image

98.8% with antibodies.

Job done ✔️

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2022 9:42 am
by dpedin
Ymx wrote: Mon Apr 18, 2022 8:59 am Image

98.8% with antibodies.

Job done ✔️
This is good news and does offer good protection but it is not the whole story I am afraid and it doesn't quite explain why we have huge numbers of folk, current ONS estimate is that 1 in 14 are infected with omicron variant.

Past infection only, no vaccination, from covid doesn't provide great or long lasting protection from omicron - some research suggests it could be as low as 20%. Remember omicron is not any 'milder' than the original virus, vaccines have provided great protection. We still have 14m in UK not vaccinated either by choice or by being ineligible. This is still a huge body of the population that are at risk. Reinfection rates from omicron are currently estimates at somewhere between 10% and 20% and rising.

Also studies suggest that omicron can evade the current vaccines more effectively than previous variants - even if vaccines achieve the top end of the protection estimates of 80% that still means 20% of those vaccinated are still at risk, this is 20% of c50m or 10m potentially still at risk, probably the elderly and the more vulnerable.

I haven't seen any research yet about whether being fully vaccinated (3 or 4 jabs) provides full protection against long covid although the suggestion is that it does reduce the chance of an infection leading to long covid. REACT study suggests up to 2m folk could have long covid.

Don't get me wrong, the level of antibodies in the community is excellent and will provide some defence. However to suggest it is 'job done' isn't the full story and is contradicted by much of the science that is out there. The longer covid is circulating then the greater the chance of further variants emerging and the greater the chance of vaccine escape. Like it or not we are in this for the long term and need to get used to behaving differently, otherwise we will end up with ongoing/periodic disruption to travel, schooling, NHS, business, etc as more waves hit us. There is no scientific evidence that covid will get milder, the next variant could be more severe.

So good news but we desperately need the scientists to come up with more effective and longer against vaccines for covid, this might not be that far off from what I hear.

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2022 9:59 am
by Wrinkles
dpedin wrote: Mon Apr 18, 2022 9:42 am
Ymx wrote: Mon Apr 18, 2022 8:59 am Image

98.8% with antibodies.

Job done ✔️
This is good news and does offer good protection but it is not the whole story I am afraid and it doesn't quite explain why we have huge numbers of folk, current ONS estimate is that 1 in 14 are infected with omicron variant.

Past infection only, no vaccination, from covid doesn't provide great or long lasting protection from omicron - some research suggests it could be as low as 20%. Remember omicron is not any 'milder' than the original virus, vaccines have provided great protection. We still have 14m in UK not vaccinated either by choice or by being ineligible. This is still a huge body of the population that are at risk. Reinfection rates from omicron are currently estimates at somewhere between 10% and 20% and rising.

Also studies suggest that omicron can evade the current vaccines more effectively than previous variants - even if vaccines achieve the top end of the protection estimates of 80% that still means 20% of those vaccinated are still at risk, this is 20% of c50m or 10m potentially still at risk, probably the elderly and the more vulnerable.

I haven't seen any research yet about whether being fully vaccinated (3 or 4 jabs) provides full protection against long covid although the suggestion is that it does reduce the chance of an infection leading to long covid. REACT study suggests up to 2m folk could have long covid.

Don't get me wrong, the level of antibodies in the community is excellent and will provide some defence. However to suggest it is 'job done' isn't the full story and is contradicted by much of the science that is out there. The longer covid is circulating then the greater the chance of further variants emerging and the greater the chance of vaccine escape. Like it or not we are in this for the long term and need to get used to behaving differently, otherwise we will end up with ongoing/periodic disruption to travel, schooling, NHS, business, etc as more waves hit us. There is no scientific evidence that covid will get milder, the next variant could be more severe.

So good news but we desperately need the scientists to come up with more effective and longer against vaccines for covid, this might not be that far off from what I hear.
So, almost 5 million people with Covid, around a million of whom will be unvaccinated, yet only 355 in hospital on ventilation. And you say there’s no evidence it’s milder? Really? If you think we should still be panicking over a disease that currently results in 1:14,000 who catch it requiring ventilation, then I think you need to recalibrate your perception of risk.

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2022 10:18 am
by petej
dpedin wrote: Mon Apr 18, 2022 9:42 am
Ymx wrote: Mon Apr 18, 2022 8:59 am Image

98.8% with antibodies.

Job done ✔️
This is good news and does offer good protection but it is not the whole story I am afraid and it doesn't quite explain why we have huge numbers of folk, current ONS estimate is that 1 in 14 are infected with omicron variant.

Past infection only, no vaccination, from covid doesn't provide great or long lasting protection from omicron - some research suggests it could be as low as 20%. Remember omicron is not any 'milder' than the original virus, vaccines have provided great protection. We still have 14m in UK not vaccinated either by choice or by being ineligible. This is still a huge body of the population that are at risk. Reinfection rates from omicron are currently estimates at somewhere between 10% and 20% and rising.

Also studies suggest that omicron can evade the current vaccines more effectively than previous variants - even if vaccines achieve the top end of the protection estimates of 80% that still means 20% of those vaccinated are still at risk, this is 20% of c50m or 10m potentially still at risk, probably the elderly and the more vulnerable.

I haven't seen any research yet about whether being fully vaccinated (3 or 4 jabs) provides full protection against long covid although the suggestion is that it does reduce the chance of an infection leading to long covid. REACT study suggests up to 2m folk could have long covid.

Don't get me wrong, the level of antibodies in the community is excellent and will provide some defence. However to suggest it is 'job done' isn't the full story and is contradicted by much of the science that is out there. The longer covid is circulating then the greater the chance of further variants emerging and the greater the chance of vaccine escape. Like it or not we are in this for the long term and need to get used to behaving differently, otherwise we will end up with ongoing/periodic disruption to travel, schooling, NHS, business, etc as more waves hit us. There is no scientific evidence that covid will get milder, the next variant could be more severe.

So good news but we desperately need the scientists to come up with more effective and longer against vaccines for covid, this might not be that far off from what I hear.
Why do we have to have sterilising immunity levels of antibodies from COVID? It is inefficient for our bodies to maintain that all the time. infection levels are mostly irrelevant at this stage of the pandemic. The body can recognise the pathogen and produce antibodies when required. Omicron is milder even accounting for vaccination and prior infection as numerous reports have covered including those by PHE or whatever it is now called. If vaccination didn't protect against long covid and like we would have a shit load more cases. There is huge evidence that COVID has got milder partly intrinsically in Omicron but mostly due to prior infection and vaccination the infection levels and hospital numbers and deaths alone indicate that. Do what to know what has disrupted me this winter - the 3 stomach bugs, the 5 colds (of which 1 was Delta and i suspect another might have been omicron but to be honest i've given up testing) as every bug that has been absent for the last two years came back was promptly caught by my toddler and past on to me FYI the potential COVID bugs were the milder ones and if your elderly and vulnerable to COVID once vaccinated then you are probably pretty vulnerable to those bugs coming back as well. Behaving differently in general i can support-like better ventilation, sick pay and encouraging those ill not to come to work, better hygiene hand washing etc... but move it away from just being about COVID.

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2022 10:18 am
by Ymx
Indeed DP. As our 98.8% antibodies wane we really need to ensure our immune systems keep up. Covid remaining in circulation should help with that. Although I’m fairly sure that will happen as it has in the past, irrespective of ph.

The 98.8% also shows why the long covid boat has sailed long ago. I could be wrong, but I assume long covid if it happens, arises most significantly from first and most severe infection. But have failed to find studies to show this. A tiny percent get long covid, and I expect a tiny percent of those who have long covid get long covid from a secondary infection when they haven’t had it from the first infection. This is speculation on my part I admit.

Also, I might have been baiting you a tiny with the “job done” quote. Some days you get the bait just right.

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2022 11:01 am
by dpedin
Wrinkles wrote: Mon Apr 18, 2022 9:59 am
dpedin wrote: Mon Apr 18, 2022 9:42 am
Ymx wrote: Mon Apr 18, 2022 8:59 am Image

98.8% with antibodies.

Job done ✔️
This is good news and does offer good protection but it is not the whole story I am afraid and it doesn't quite explain why we have huge numbers of folk, current ONS estimate is that 1 in 14 are infected with omicron variant.

Past infection only, no vaccination, from covid doesn't provide great or long lasting protection from omicron - some research suggests it could be as low as 20%. Remember omicron is not any 'milder' than the original virus, vaccines have provided great protection. We still have 14m in UK not vaccinated either by choice or by being ineligible. This is still a huge body of the population that are at risk. Reinfection rates from omicron are currently estimates at somewhere between 10% and 20% and rising.

Also studies suggest that omicron can evade the current vaccines more effectively than previous variants - even if vaccines achieve the top end of the protection estimates of 80% that still means 20% of those vaccinated are still at risk, this is 20% of c50m or 10m potentially still at risk, probably the elderly and the more vulnerable.

I haven't seen any research yet about whether being fully vaccinated (3 or 4 jabs) provides full protection against long covid although the suggestion is that it does reduce the chance of an infection leading to long covid. REACT study suggests up to 2m folk could have long covid.

Don't get me wrong, the level of antibodies in the community is excellent and will provide some defence. However to suggest it is 'job done' isn't the full story and is contradicted by much of the science that is out there. The longer covid is circulating then the greater the chance of further variants emerging and the greater the chance of vaccine escape. Like it or not we are in this for the long term and need to get used to behaving differently, otherwise we will end up with ongoing/periodic disruption to travel, schooling, NHS, business, etc as more waves hit us. There is no scientific evidence that covid will get milder, the next variant could be more severe.

So good news but we desperately need the scientists to come up with more effective and longer against vaccines for covid, this might not be that far off from what I hear.
So, almost 5 million people with Covid, around a million of whom will be unvaccinated, yet only 355 in hospital on ventilation. And you say there’s no evidence it’s milder? Really? If you think we should still be panicking over a disease that currently results in 1:14,000 who catch it requiring ventilation, then I think you need to recalibrate your perception of risk.
In the early days of the pandemic the medics didn't know what they were dealing with and out of desperation had to put folk on ventilation when they had nothing else in the locker. However since then they have found out that intubating folk isn't the best treatment and the outcomes have been very very poor. They now have far better protocols for treating covid and much better pharmaceutical options ie antivirals and anti-inflamatories, in the drawer and can avoid the need of intubating the vast majority of covid patients which would require putting them into ICU. The numbers going into ICU in the initial days were unsustainable and were having a huge impact on emergency and urgent care as no ICU beds means no risky operations.

Using the numbers going into ICU over the period of the pandemic is not now a useful or sensible metric and ignores the huge advances made in treating covid patients, most now remain in acute ward settings who previously might have had to go to ICU. Also we have vaccines which, particularly if fully boosted, reduce the severity of covid for many patients who will need hospitalisation but are not going to need ICU.

Omicron might be less severe but is hugely more transmissible so any benefit from reduction in hospitalisations per 100 patients with omicron is outweighed by the increase in transmissibility. I think omicron BA.2 RO is between 7 and 12, about 30-50% higher than omicron BA.1. For context flu has an RO of 1.2, the original covid variant had an RO of less than 3 and measles, one of the most infectious diseases known is between 12 and 18. It is the old H&S risk matrix calculation where risk = hazard x exposure or in covid speak risk = severity x transmissibility. So the risk from omicron, as much as we would like it to be, is not 'mild'.

We still have c20,000 patients in hospital with covid, an ambulance service that cannot respond to calls, patients dying in the back of ambulances because they can't be seen fast enough, A&E depts where the waits can be over 12 hours, stroke patients not getting clot busting drugs in the time window required who will now require ongoing rehab care, longest NHS waiting times in history, huge numbers of delayed discharges, etc. Let's not even go into the other impact of covid on travel/flight cancellations, schooling, business, etc due to staff absence. I think my perception of the risk we face is about right!

Your metric doesn't include any factoring in of the impact of long covid and the now recognised increased risk of cardiac, stroke and PE in folk who have had covid for example.

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2022 11:23 am
by dpedin
Ymx wrote: Mon Apr 18, 2022 10:18 am Indeed DP. As our 98.8% antibodies wane we really need to ensure our immune systems keep up. Covid remaining in circulation should help with that. Although I’m fairly sure that will happen as it has in the past, irrespective of ph.

The 98.8% also shows why the long covid boat has sailed long ago. I could be wrong, but I assume long covid if it happens, arises most significantly from first and most severe infection. But have failed to find studies to show this. A tiny percent get long covid, and I expect a tiny percent of those who have long covid get long covid from a secondary infection when they haven’t had it from the first infection. This is speculation on my part I admit.

Also, I might have been baiting you a tiny with the “job done” quote. Some days you get the bait just right.
Natural infection from covid provides a weaker protection than vaccination so annual vaccinations are probably best option. Allowing covid to freely circulate to keep immune system up will lead to continuous disruption as there will always be a percentage off ill with covid symptoms plus there remains a risk of new variants causing greater illness in some people/groups. The omicron variant has led to a significant increase in hospitalisation of young children for example. Best option to minimise risk is to maintain vaccinations with regular boosters including children.

I am not sure what highly infectious diseases that we have allowed to run wild without using PH measures to try and control community transmission? Is this not why we vaccinate kids against measles, mumps, rubella, whooping cough, flu, tetanus,diptheria, polio, meningitis, HPV, etc and adults against shingles, meningitis, etc. It's why we get vaccinated against a range of transmissible diseases such as hepatitis, cholera, rabies, yellow fever, etc when going abroad to certain countries.

ONS suggest between 3% and 12% have long covid 12 weeks post initial infection, 7% to 18% who were symptomatic. So not a tiny percentage.

I'm not sure your assumptions are correct? See https://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj.o378 for risk of cardiac issues even after mild case of covid although there is a relationship between more severe cases and cardiac issues. However even mild cases of covid present a risk. I think the jury is still out about the risk of long covid from reinfections, I think it reduces it but not sufficiently given the large numbers of people being infected with Omicron. A small % of a very large number is still a very large number!

I'm just at a loose end waiting to go out and play golf so it kept me occupied for a wee while over a coffee. Tee time at 2pm.

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2022 11:28 am
by Marylandolorian
@dpedin : Thanks for all your efforts, you’ve been very informative (and patient) and right on the money.

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2022 12:01 pm
by Margin__Walker
Margin__Walker wrote: Thu Apr 07, 2022 11:30 am
dpedin wrote: Thu Apr 07, 2022 11:23 am
Margin__Walker wrote: Thu Apr 07, 2022 11:19 am Because the daily case numbers were falling (prior to 1st April). But let's not go around that loop again.
No - I think others have suggested why case numbers are not a reliable measure to use.
Sure. Back to the original point. Let's wait for the ONS numbers for this week. This is going nowhere
Well, turns out case numbers were falling that week. Fancy that

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... stinsights

Re: So, coronavirus...

Posted: Mon Apr 18, 2022 1:42 pm
by Ymx
dpedin wrote: Mon Apr 18, 2022 11:23 am
Ymx wrote: Mon Apr 18, 2022 10:18 am Indeed DP. As our 98.8% antibodies wane we really need to ensure our immune systems keep up. Covid remaining in circulation should help with that. Although I’m fairly sure that will happen as it has in the past, irrespective of ph.

The 98.8% also shows why the long covid boat has sailed long ago. I could be wrong, but I assume long covid if it happens, arises most significantly from first and most severe infection. But have failed to find studies to show this. A tiny percent get long covid, and I expect a tiny percent of those who have long covid get long covid from a secondary infection when they haven’t had it from the first infection. This is speculation on my part I admit.

Also, I might have been baiting you a tiny with the “job done” quote. Some days you get the bait just right.
Natural infection from covid provides a weaker protection than vaccination so annual vaccinations are probably best option. Allowing covid to freely circulate to keep immune system up will lead to continuous disruption as there will always be a percentage off ill with covid symptoms plus there remains a risk of new variants causing greater illness in some people/groups. The omicron variant has led to a significant increase in hospitalisation of young children for example. Best option to minimise risk is to maintain vaccinations with regular boosters including children.

I am not sure what highly infectious diseases that we have allowed to run wild without using PH measures to try and control community transmission? Is this not why we vaccinate kids against measles, mumps, rubella, whooping cough, flu, tetanus,diptheria, polio, meningitis, HPV, etc and adults against shingles, meningitis, etc. It's why we get vaccinated against a range of transmissible diseases such as hepatitis, cholera, rabies, yellow fever, etc when going abroad to certain countries.

ONS suggest between 3% and 12% have long covid 12 weeks post initial infection, 7% to 18% who were symptomatic. So not a tiny percentage.

I'm not sure your assumptions are correct? See https://www.bmj.com/content/376/bmj.o378 for risk of cardiac issues even after mild case of covid although there is a relationship between more severe cases and cardiac issues. However even mild cases of covid present a risk. I think the jury is still out about the risk of long covid from reinfections, I think it reduces it but not sufficiently given the large numbers of people being infected with Omicron. A small % of a very large number is still a very large number!

I'm just at a loose end waiting to go out and play golf so it kept me occupied for a wee while over a coffee. Tee time at 2pm.
I’m pleased we could assist in biding your time. Were you sitting in a well ventilated car whilst your golf buddies having lunch at the club house? :wink:

As I said 98.8% the horse has bolted. Long covid will be what it is.

I don’t see any huge disruption any more at our work. Just the odd person off work occasionally. 1/13 and naturally dropping off. Because it’s not treated any differently from other illnesses, it’s not actually affecting our office.

I expect we will all come in to contact multiple times a year from here on in, and immunity unlikely to wane enough to become an issue. Most already triple vaccinated and exposed to it.

Annual vaccinations for the elderly, prone, would no doubt be advisable, as per flu vaccinations.

As for comparisons to other illnesses. Swine flu was one such infection we allow to freely circulate. It’s still around.

As for the others, the vaccination rates are very comparable to covid.

Hope you had a good round, btw. Nice day down here in Southeast, hope the same where you are.