NPR

Don't know about anyone else but the commentary I've seen, from academics in military strategy etc and former military guys turned commentators has reasonably consistently talked about the logistics / incompetence / casualties problems the Russians have coming to a head in September or October. Guess we'll find out if they're right soon.

Biffer wrote: ↑Fri Aug 26, 2022 10:43 am Don't know about anyone else but the commentary I've seen, from academics in military strategy etc and former military guys turned commentators has reasonably consistently talked about the logistics / incompetence / casualties problems the Russians have coming to a head in September or October. Guess we'll find out if they're right soon.

^ Let's hope so.

Hellraiser wrote: ↑Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:46 pm PRC isn't going to do shit. Their debt bubble is about to burst.

So long as Taiwan doesn't become a direct threat for their security, I believe they have nothing to gain in trying to invade.

Beside, this makes for a good propaganda tool and a common enemy to focus the people on while the rest of the economy goes tits up.

Hellraiser wrote: ↑Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:46 pm PRC isn't going to do shit. Their debt bubble is about to burst.

Because of course no authoritarian regime has ever used a nationalism driven military action to distract from domestic or economic problems.

Biffer wrote: ↑Fri Aug 26, 2022 12:02 pm

Hellraiser wrote: ↑Tue Aug 23, 2022 1:46 pm PRC isn't going to do shit. Their debt bubble is about to burst.

Because of course no authoritarian regime has ever used a nationalism driven military action to distract from domestic or economic problems.

My point is the scale of the domestic unrest that PRC is potentially facing in the coming months is so staggering that sabre-rattling is just that. Dire economic problems against the background of the worst drought in centuries. A super expensive and probably unsuccessful attempt to seize Taiwan could completely destabilise China and see the CCP toppled as it loses legitimacy.

Bye bye Russia's space programme.

Bunch of shitkickers

Thought the last six months world have taught the Lord haw haw types to quieten down.

Jock42 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:07 am

EnergiseR2 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 9:23 pm

tabascoboy wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 9:25 am

I'm pretty embarrassed that has ended up online

You based at Mellville Barracks?

I suspect you mean Merville?

Openside wrote: ↑Sat Aug 27, 2022 4:04 pm

Jock42 wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:07 am

EnergiseR2 wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 9:23 pm

I'm pretty embarrassed that has ended up online

You based at Mellville Barracks?

I suspect you mean Merville?

Aye that's the one. I never got an invite so never learned to spell it.

Well, well, well...I mean who couldn't believe this?

Russia’s Defense Ministry says its forces have destroyed a US-made M777 howitzer gun which Kiev forces had used on a daily basis to shell the Russian-controlled Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant located in southeastern Ukraine.

Meanwhile

Car of Russian General Staff official set on fire in Moscow, woman detained – Russian media

In Moscow, a car belonging to Evgeniy Sekretarev, the Deputy Chief of the 8th Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, has been set on fire, and a woman has been detained on suspicion of arson.

As Baza reports, a BMW X6 belonging to Sekretarev was parked in the yard of a house on Leningrad Street and suddenly caught fire there. The rear part of the car suffered the most, the boot being completely burnt out.

Baza also reports that Russian police forces detained a woman who allegedly set the car on fire. She stated that she was against the "special military operation".

Sources report that the woman doused the boot of the car with petrol and set it on fire.

Source: Russian Telegram channels Baza; Mash; Russian state-owned news agency TASS

The Kherson counter-offensive has begun. The Ukrainians have broken the Russian line and retaken three villages.

Hellraiser wrote: ↑Mon Aug 29, 2022 11:44 am The Kherson counter-offensive has begun. The Ukrainians have broken the Russian line and retaken three villages.

Not sure how you manage to keep this up on both PR and here, but thanks

SaintK wrote: ↑Mon Aug 29, 2022 11:46 am

Hellraiser wrote: ↑Mon Aug 29, 2022 11:44 am The Kherson counter-offensive has begun. The Ukrainians have broken the Russian line and retaken three villages.

Not sure how you manage to keep this up on both PR and here, but thanks

Yes, many thanks. This thread is the best single source of updates that I know of.

Hellraiser wrote: ↑Mon Aug 29, 2022 11:44 am The Kherson counter-offensive has begun. The Ukrainians have broken the Russian line and retaken three villages.

This is still up in the air (hoping this is true).

This was hinted at a few days go I believe

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu is removed from command of the Russian occupation forces in Ukraine. Operational commanders directly inform Putin about the progress of the war, says UK Intelligence

Right so there was a 3 pronged attack by the Ukrainians. One north-west of Kherson along the main motorway, one in the middle across the same river location as previous to create a bridgehead to drive towards the dam, and one in the north. The one north-west of Kherson quickly stalled as to be expected, this was likely simply a distraction. The middle attack was actually 2 attacks, the Ukrainian's did a clever river crossing in what was supposed to be a pincer movement but the north side of the pincer was repelled, nevertheless they have made a foothold outflanking the Russians and are bringing up reinforcements - here the battle is well and truly in the balance, the Russians having to scramble. In the north of Kherson Oblast there was some minor success in that same town before people were declaring as cut off is now threatened again but the northern assaults are not large scale, again more likely simply pinning.

At this stage I'd rather call these tactical assaults rather than THE strategic offensive, but let's see how it plays out as it is altogether unclear just how many troops Ukraine has up its sleeve to push into Kherson.

Have to be pretty careful with the news at the moment, many social media reports may be counter-productive in making things sound better or worse than they really are but only the UA military knows what its plan is, and surely wants to keep its exact longer term strategy under wraps. Expecting this to go back and forth with the normal flux of war, and clearly anyone believing a sudden collapse, retreat and rout of RU forces may be disappointed. Best to keep hopes in check and await verifiable news.

tabascoboy wrote: ↑Tue Aug 30, 2022 7:23 am Have to be pretty careful with the news at the moment, many social media reports may be counter-productive in making things sound better or worse than they really are but only the UA military knows what its plan is, and surely wants to keep its exact longer term strategy under wraps. Expecting this to go back and forth with the normal flux of war, and clearly anyone believing a sudden collapse, retreat and rout of RU forces may be disappointed. Best to keep hopes in check and await verifiable news.

Hopefully all the BS being posted on the net will keep the Orcs as confused as the rest of us. Much as we'd all love to see the Russians collapse and flee in panic leaving their kit behind, it's not going to happen and I expect it to be more of a long and bloody grind. Slava Ukriani

A lot of froth on Twitter at any Ukrainian movement. The realties are a bit more prosaic. Still it's good to see Ukraine up the ante. They'll be forcing the Russian army to respond, watching and learning in the process just what Russia's capabilities are with their damaged logistics. And if they can push through on let's call it the dam bridgehead it's likely about the best position in the Kherson region - no urban areas to worry about civilians, still a long way for Russian support and cuts the northern part off.

Apparently the Ukraine have asked social media bloggers, and news reporters. to go dark on posting images, videos, comments on what is happening in the Kherson region to keep operation security for a while longer to boost their advantage as long as possible. If true it could explain why there are no clear confirmation yet of what is happening. It will be great they are actually taking parts of the region. Unconfirmed reports claims they have already taken 4 villages on the outskirts of Kherson so we will see . Also plains being taken out in Belgerod. Would love to see a decisive blow in the region to the Russians.

Even if it's remotely close.

bok_viking wrote: ↑Tue Aug 30, 2022 10:26 am Apparently the Ukraine have asked social media bloggers, and news reporters. to go dark on posting images, videos, comments on what is happening in the Kherson region to keep operation security for a while longer to boost their advantage as long as possible. If true it could explain why there are no clear confirmation yet of what is happening. It will be great they are actually taking parts of the region. Unconfirmed reports claims they have already taken 4 villages on the outskirts of Kherson so we will see . Also plains being taken out in Belgerod. Would love to see a decisive blow in the region to the Russians.

What's happening on the front line is being well enough reported. It's no different from the daily updates we get from elsewhere with status and lines of battle well described. The Russians know where and how they've been assaulted, that's not an op sec issue. The blackout which is old news at this point I'd suggest applies to social media betraying what's going on behind the lines in terms of location and types of forces.

Edit: I see there is a new stricter country wide ban on the press. Which makes sense. The Ukrainians will be doing what the Russians did and taking from somewhere to attack elsewhere.

Gorbachev brown bread.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-62732447

Wonder what he would have made of all this.

This map looks like it could be showing where the ground fighting is happening. Large scale combined arms push into the north of the salient to encircle and destroy/capture Russian forces, and a smaller pincer maybe aiming to take the T1505 that goes to Kherson (I've looked up this road on Google maps it's a basic road single lane each way, so I'm not sure that is their target, but a road to Kherson would be very valuable before Autumn).

Hellraiser wrote: ↑Wed Aug 31, 2022 7:26 pm

Even with the embargo on video, this is the most footage I've seen of massed Ukrainian mech infantry supported by MBTs. A bit longer version of that video and some others.