Stop voting for fucking Tories

[fishfoodie]

It's going to be revealing how the official CCHQ line plays out, my bet is on words to the effect of "the public don't understand what we are trying to do, so we have to do it stronger and harder", because arrogance won't let them think they can possibly be screwing things up by bigging up culture wars and the like instead of the things that are really hurting people.

It's going to be revealing and a strong indication of what happens if they lose their majority in a GE. Large MRP polls aren't done often, it's a new polling method, but it has proven itself to be accurate at predicting numbers of seats (within 30 seats or so). All the recent MRP polling has shown the Tories recording their worst ever result going back to the 17th century. They've essentially shown the Tories almost dying. I think it's so outside anyone's frame of reference that no one mentions it or takes it seriously.

But if we just stick to the Tories losing their majority. They have absorbed UKIP as they set out to do. Their membership now has a large swivel eyed component, hence Liz Truss getting anywhere beyond councillor/backbench level. To become viable again, these same Tory members and whatever MPs they have left, will have to pilot the Tories back to a pre-2016 position with economics that actually have some chance of working. The alternative is the Republican party route and becoming more insane and unelectable.

At some point everything they've done is going to hit them at the polls (this has already started), then it's going to keep hitting them until they stop.

An underrated issue beyond seats they will likely lose at the next election is seats like mine. Fairly affluent suburbia that has returned massive majorities, drifting away from them and they’ll have to campaign here, taking resources away from marginals

Do you've any read as to what's driven the dissatisfaction in your area ?

It's always risky using locals as indicators of anything much, but this time it really does seem no Tory is safe.

[Paddington Bear]

It's going to be revealing and a strong indication of what happens if they lose their majority in a GE. Large MRP polls aren't done often, it's a new polling method, but it has proven itself to be accurate at predicting numbers of seats (within 30 seats or so). All the recent MRP polling has shown the Tories recording their worst ever result going back to the 17th century. They've essentially shown the Tories almost dying. I think it's so outside anyone's frame of reference that no one mentions it or takes it seriously.

But if we just stick to the Tories losing their majority. They have absorbed UKIP as they set out to do. Their membership now has a large swivel eyed component, hence Liz Truss getting anywhere beyond councillor/backbench level. To become viable again, these same Tory members and whatever MPs they have left, will have to pilot the Tories back to a pre-2016 position with economics that actually have some chance of working. The alternative is the Republican party route and becoming more insane and unelectable.

At some point everything they've done is going to hit them at the polls (this has already started), then it's going to keep hitting them until they stop.

An underrated issue beyond seats they will likely lose at the next election is seats like mine. Fairly affluent suburbia that has returned massive majorities, drifting away from them and they’ll have to campaign here, taking resources away from marginals

Do you've any read as to what's driven the dissatisfaction in your area ?

It's always risky using locals as indicators of anything much, but this time it really does seem no Tory is safe.

Brexit was the starting point for a lot of people, but what’s ratcheting it up is the general sense of shambles IMO. And yes you can read too much into the locals (my district council is Lib Dem, has been for yonks and yet with a Tory MP the whole time) but the direction of travel is pretty clear

[_Os_]

It's going to be revealing how the official CCHQ line plays out, my bet is on words to the effect of "the public don't understand what we are trying to do, so we have to do it stronger and harder", because arrogance won't let them think they can possibly be screwing things up by bigging up culture wars and the like instead of the things that are really hurting people.

It's going to be revealing and a strong indication of what happens if they lose their majority in a GE. Large MRP polls aren't done often, it's a new polling method, but it has proven itself to be accurate at predicting numbers of seats (within 30 seats or so). All the recent MRP polling has shown the Tories recording their worst ever result going back to the 17th century. They've essentially shown the Tories almost dying. I think it's so outside anyone's frame of reference that no one mentions it or takes it seriously.

But if we just stick to the Tories losing their majority. They have absorbed UKIP as they set out to do. Their membership now has a large swivel eyed component, hence Liz Truss getting anywhere beyond councillor/backbench level. To become viable again, these same Tory members and whatever MPs they have left, will have to pilot the Tories back to a pre-2016 position with economics that actually have some chance of working. The alternative is the Republican party route and becoming more insane and unelectable.

At some point everything they've done is going to hit them at the polls (this has already started), then it's going to keep hitting them until they stop.

An underrated issue beyond seats they will likely lose at the next election is seats like mine. Fairly affluent suburbia that has returned massive majorities, drifting away from them and they’ll have to campaign here, taking resources away from marginals

Yes, and it works the other way too. Which is why I included the Bath and North East Somerset result in the list the Tories should worry about.

Bath is now likely a safe Lib Dem seat (a rare thing), so that strong Lib Dem branch will be able to dispatch activists to neighbouring constituencies. Bath and North East Somerset council has two Westminster seats, Bath (Lib Dem, Hobhouse) and North East Somerset (Con, Rees-Mogg). Rees-Mogg has a 10K+ majority but if the non-Tory vote wasn't split over Labour/Lib Dems/Greens, then that majority starts getting very small. Because it's Rees-Mogg activists will definitely want to try there even if there's a small chance. A better place to go would be Cheltenham where the Tory majority is under 1000, a proper marginal. Oxford West and Abingdon (Lib Dem, Moran) is also likely a safe Lib Dem seat for the next GE, so if Johnson tries to jump into the safe Tory seat of Henley next door he's going to be find himself more pressured than he thought (for the same reason Rees-Mogg will). Stratford-on-Avon (Con, Nadhim Zahawi) is in the middle of all this and has flipped from a Tory council to a Lib Dem council, and although it's a massive 20k majority for Zahawi, the guy is carrying a lot of negatives (just like Rees-Mogg and Johnson).

Leaning into the Tories is going to be good for the Lib Dems in the next GE. Even some safe Tory seats could find themselves fighting with everything they've got to hang on. The problem for the Lib Dems is they probably don't keep the new voters long term, but that's a nice problem to have I guess.

I watched Channel 4 News and Sky News this evening. All the journalists were saying this indicates a hung parliament, then they put their numbers up, and they've taken the percentage of the vote this local election and mapped it onto all 650 Westminster seats. But the Lib Dems are polling at 10%-ish UK wide and not 18%, and obviously independents aren't going to be getting 20%+. It seems like the media have forgotten this is only most of England outside London. Wales/Scotland/London are going to be adding a lot to Labour and very little to the Tories. This result indicates a Labour majority more than any other outcome imo.

[C69]

It's going to be revealing and a strong indication of what happens if they lose their majority in a GE. Large MRP polls aren't done often, it's a new polling method, but it has proven itself to be accurate at predicting numbers of seats (within 30 seats or so). All the recent MRP polling has shown the Tories recording their worst ever result going back to the 17th century. They've essentially shown the Tories almost dying. I think it's so outside anyone's frame of reference that no one mentions it or takes it seriously.

But if we just stick to the Tories losing their majority. They have absorbed UKIP as they set out to do. Their membership now has a large swivel eyed component, hence Liz Truss getting anywhere beyond councillor/backbench level. To become viable again, these same Tory members and whatever MPs they have left, will have to pilot the Tories back to a pre-2016 position with economics that actually have some chance of working. The alternative is the Republican party route and becoming more insane and unelectable.

At some point everything they've done is going to hit them at the polls (this has already started), then it's going to keep hitting them until they stop.

An underrated issue beyond seats they will likely lose at the next election is seats like mine. Fairly affluent suburbia that has returned massive majorities, drifting away from them and they’ll have to campaign here, taking resources away from marginals

Yes, and it works the other way too. Which is why I included the Bath and North East Somerset result in the list the Tories should worry about.

Bath is now likely a safe Lib Dem seat (a rare thing), so that strong Lib Dem branch will be able to dispatch activists to neighbouring constituencies. Bath and North East Somerset council has two Westminster seats, Bath (Lib Dem, Hobhouse) and North East Somerset (Con, Rees-Mogg). Rees-Mogg has a 10K+ majority but if the non-Tory vote wasn't split over Labour/Lib Dems/Greens, then that majority starts getting very small. Because it's Rees-Mogg activists will definitely want to try there even if there's a small chance. A better place to go would be Cheltenham where the Tory majority is under 1000, a proper marginal. Oxford West and Abingdon (Lib Dem, Moran) is also likely a safe Lib Dem seat for the next GE, so if Johnson tries to jump into the safe Tory seat of Henley next door he's going to be find himself more pressured than he thought (for the same reason Rees-Mogg will). Stratford-on-Avon (Con, Nadhim Zahawi) is in the middle of all this and has flipped from a Tory council to a Lib Dem council, and although it's a massive 20k majority for Zahawi, the guy is carrying a lot of negatives (just like Rees-Mogg and Johnson).

Leaning into the Tories is going to be good for the Lib Dems in the next GE. Even some safe Tory seats could find themselves fighting with everything they've got to hang on. The problem for the Lib Dems is they probably don't keep the new voters long term, but that's a nice problem to have I guess.

I watched Channel 4 News and Sky News this evening. All the journalists were saying this indicates a hung parliament, then they put their numbers up, and they've taken the percentage of the vote this local election and mapped it onto all 650 Westminster seats. But the Lib Dems are polling at 10%-ish UK wide and not 18%, and obviously independents aren't going to be getting 20%+. It seems like the media have forgotten this is only most of England outside London. Wales/Scotland/London are going to be adding a lot to Labour and very little to the Tories. This result indicates a Labour majority more than any other outcome imo.

Indeed such a strange conflation. Very poor political science indeed.

[Tichtheid]

The Tories said that losing 1000 seats would be a disaster.

They said this because if they only lost 600 or 700 they could say, well we did a lot better than everyone was saying we would.

They seem to have lost 959 according to the Guardian, I don't know if every seat has declared.

[yermum]

BBC showing:
CON
2,282
-1,061

Can you hear me Maggie thatcher….

[Torquemada 1420]

****s turning on themselves

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-65496536

It's going to be revealing how the official CCHQ line plays out, my bet is on words to the effect of "the public don't understand what we are trying to do, so we have to do it stronger and harder", because arrogance won't let them think they can possibly be screwing things up by bigging up culture wars and the like instead of the things that are really hurting people.

My town wards have kicked out at least a couple more Tories but sadly the "blue wall" of the rural villages is keeping them in control of the borough as a whole

Same here. I actually am surprised just how many hard line right pockets there are here.

[tabascoboy]

One thing the Tories can be a bit relieved about is that for today and tomorrow at least all the media attention turns to the Coronation...

[Torquemada 1420]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-65484552

Mr Justice Levin ruled in favour of the government, saying that the change in policy still met existing laws, although he said it was "regrettable" the public had not been informed.

[SaintK]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-65484552

Mr Justice Levin ruled in favour of the government, saying that the change in policy still met existing laws, although he said it was "regrettable" the public had not been informed.

So this bunch of tossers are now complying with an EU directive that the industry doesn't want!!

Dr Julia Fentem, head of the safety and environmental assurance centre at Unilever - one of the world's largest cosmetic companies - said tests potentially required under the new policy were "unnecessary", and that safety tests could be carried out without animal involvement.

[tabascoboy]

Yep let's bring back a serial liar with absolutely no sense of personal responsibility - that'll work...

‘Team Boris has gone into overdrive’: Rishi Sunak’s ‘astonishing’ losses are reopening Tory splits

Allies of Boris Johnson are stirring again. While the man himself is remaining silent, he is widely believed to have authorised friends to brief the media on his behalf, making sure his name remains in the headlines, even as he stops short of issuing a direct challenge to his successor.

“Team Boris has gone into overdrive again,” one MP remarked. “Boris has always said he would only come back as leader if 50 per cent of MPs supported him – but I am hoping we don’t have musical chairs. We don’t need him now, we need stability, it’s steadying the ship time.”

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/team- ... 46?ITO=msn

[GogLais]

Yep let's bring back a serial liar with absolutely no sense of personal responsibility - that'll work...

‘Team Boris has gone into overdrive’: Rishi Sunak’s ‘astonishing’ losses are reopening Tory splits

Allies of Boris Johnson are stirring again. While the man himself is remaining silent, he is widely believed to have authorised friends to brief the media on his behalf, making sure his name remains in the headlines, even as he stops short of issuing a direct challenge to his successor.

“Team Boris has gone into overdrive again,” one MP remarked. “Boris has always said he would only come back as leader if 50 per cent of MPs supported him – but I am hoping we don’t have musical chairs. We don’t need him now, we need stability, it’s steadying the ship time.”

https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/team- ... 46?ITO=msn

Should be entertaining if nothing else.

[petej]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-65484552

Mr Justice Levin ruled in favour of the government, saying that the change in policy still met existing laws, although he said it was "regrettable" the public had not been informed.

So this bunch of tossers are now complying with an EU directive that the industry doesn't want!!

Dr Julia Fentem, head of the safety and environmental assurance centre at Unilever - one of the world's largest cosmetic companies - said tests potentially required under the new policy were "unnecessary", and that safety tests could be carried out without animal involvement.

We are signed upto the Stockholm convention. There is quite a bit in the pipeline relating to persistent organic pollutants and PFAs (for example teflon, viton) which I suspect this relates to so alignment makes sense. Plus HSE is lacks resources. The ECHA website is still the one i go to for hazardous materials info.

[GogLais]

BBC showing:
CON
2,282
-1,061

Can you hear me Maggie thatcher….

Could be a quirk of many factors but I see that LDs and Greens between them gained about as many seats as Labour. Greens made significant gains on the Wirral. Which is odd, Brighton we’re not.

[I like neeps]

BBC showing:
CON
2,282
-1,061

Can you hear me Maggie thatcher….

Could be a quirk of many factors but I see that LDs and Greens between them gained about as many seats as Labour. Greens made significant gains on the Wirral. Which is odd, Brighton we’re not.

The Wirral is not odd at all, they're a load of ex labour councillors who got kicked out by Sir Keir. Expect to see a lot of green votes in metropolitan areas.

[Tichtheid]

BBC showing:
CON
2,282
-1,061

Can you hear me Maggie thatcher….

Could be a quirk of many factors but I see that LDs and Greens between them gained about as many seats as Labour. Greens made significant gains on the Wirral. Which is odd, Brighton we’re not.

Oddly enough, the Greens got whupped in Brighton, Labour won overall control and several Greens, including the local group leader, lost their seats.

Labour won 38 seats, the Green party won 7 seats, the Conservatives won 6 seats, Brighton & Hove Independents won 2 seats and an independent candidate won 1 seat.

It would take a huge shift for Caroline Lucas to lose her Westminster seat, though, she had a majority of nearly twenty thousand at the last election - 57% of the vote, the Labour candidate came in second with nearly 23%.

[GogLais]

BBC showing:
CON
2,282
-1,061

Can you hear me Maggie thatcher….

Could be a quirk of many factors but I see that LDs and Greens between them gained about as many seats as Labour. Greens made significant gains on the Wirral. Which is odd, Brighton we’re not.

The Wirral is not odd at all, they're a load of ex labour councillors who got kicked out by Sir Keir. Expect to see a lot of green votes in metropolitan areas.

That was my point really, Bebington and Prenton are pretty normal places, to use a vague description. Not that I’m suggesting that Green voters are odd. What does seem odd that the likes of Caldy and Heswall have Labour MPs.

[SaintK]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-65484552

So this bunch of tossers are now complying with an EU directive that the industry doesn't want!!

Dr Julia Fentem, head of the safety and environmental assurance centre at Unilever - one of the world's largest cosmetic companies - said tests potentially required under the new policy were "unnecessary", and that safety tests could be carried out without animal involvement.

We are signed upto the Stockholm convention. There is quite a bit in the pipeline relating to persistent organic pollutants and PFAs (for example teflon, viton) which I suspect this relates to so alignment makes sense. Plus HSE is lacks resources. The ECHA website is still the one i go to for hazardous materials info.

[Torquemada 1420]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-65484552

Mr Justice Levin ruled in favour of the government, saying that the change in policy still met existing laws, although he said it was "regrettable" the public had not been informed.

So this bunch of tossers are now complying with an EU directive that the industry doesn't want!!

Dr Julia Fentem, head of the safety and environmental assurance centre at Unilever - one of the world's largest cosmetic companies - said tests potentially required under the new policy were "unnecessary", and that safety tests could be carried out without animal involvement.

It's friggin' bizarre. I can't figure out which group lobbied for this. The Confederation Of Animal Abusers? Is that a thing?

[Sandstorm]

Lib Dem’s kicked out the Conservatives down here. I met the 3 LD candidates last month on the doorstep and they’re all weirdos I wouldn’t share a pint with.

Hopefully they can manage a tiny budget.

[Sandstorm]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-65484552

So this bunch of tossers are now complying with an EU directive that the industry doesn't want!!

Dr Julia Fentem, head of the safety and environmental assurance centre at Unilever - one of the world's largest cosmetic companies - said tests potentially required under the new policy were "unnecessary", and that safety tests could be carried out without animal involvement.

It's friggin' bizarre. I can't figure out which group lobbied for this. The Confederation Of Animal Abusers? Is that a thing?

Gotta do something with those Tory donors’ hounds.

[_Os_]

The Telegraph letters section gives an idea of the Tory direction of travel. It's not going to be fun being a younger person in that party, telling these people for many more years to come things like: "Thatcherism has been done, it cannot be redone", "Brexit needs to be looked at again", "the electoral sweet spot for the Tories is the place where the Lib Dems and Tories meet", "'woke' is a meaningless word that is simply a container for everything you dislike", "building new things is important, a damp barren field in southern England does not require x1000 the protection the Amazon or Congo jungle receives".

Their latest thing is the dodgy sounding "National Conservatism". A Republican party style loony response to losing power looks entirely possible.

[tabascoboy]

The Telegraph letters section gives an idea of the Tory direction of travel. It's not going to be fun being a younger person in that party, telling these people for many more years to come things like: "Thatcherism has been done, it cannot be redone", "Brexit needs to be looked at again", "the electoral sweet spot for the Tories is the place where the Lib Dems and Tories meet", "'woke' is a meaningless word that is simply a container for everything you dislike", "building new things is important, a damp barren field in southern England does not require x1000 the protection the Amazon or Congo jungle receives".

Their latest thing is the dodgy sounding "National Conservatism". A Republican party style loony response to losing power looks entirely possible.

If this is actually managed by rather than for Young Conservatives then it suggest that they are strongly in accord with the current mindset of CCHQ
https://twitter.com/Young_Tories

[robmatic]

The Telegraph letters section gives an idea of the Tory direction of travel. It's not going to be fun being a younger person in that party, telling these people for many more years to come things like: "Thatcherism has been done, it cannot be redone", "Brexit needs to be looked at again", "the electoral sweet spot for the Tories is the place where the Lib Dems and Tories meet", "'woke' is a meaningless word that is simply a container for everything you dislike", "building new things is important, a damp barren field in southern England does not require x1000 the protection the Amazon or Congo jungle receives".

Their latest thing is the dodgy sounding "National Conservatism". A Republican party style loony response to losing power looks entirely possible.

If this is actually managed by rather than for Young Conservatives then it suggest that they are strongly in accord with the current mindset of CCHQ
https://twitter.com/Young_Tories

I get the impression that anybody in the Young Conservatives these days is either alt-right or similarly looney tunes on social issues.

[_Os_]

Scrolling through that account it seems to support the current Tory government and Sunak etc. Anderson is just a meme spouting bullshit Tories like, he's earning more than he's ever made in his life from the performance, so he's happy to continue doing it as long as possible (it wasn't long ago he was in Labour and nowhere near parliament). I scrolled back to summer last year, that account gave almost no support to Truss and I can't find any mention of Braverman or Rees-Mogg. It seems to mostly boost Sunak, Cleverly, and Anderson.

As unbelievable as it sounds, that all puts them into the "woke" wing of the Tory party those letters were angry about. Within the Tory bubble there's people that believe the current Tory government is "woke" this being embodied by Sunak, and that the Tories need to move much further to the right to win. To them things like the Windsor framework, not withdrawing from the ECHR and not going ahead with Rees-Mogg's mass burning of laws, are all a massive betrayal. These would be the people immensely impressed by the likes of Braverman, or Rees-Mogg, or Truss, or Big Dog.

From the outside it's all completely mad. But they cannot see that.

[Biffer]

Let’s be honest, there’s a part of the Tory party that thinks they’re being woke because they elected a brown leader.

[GogLais]

Let’s be honest, there’s a part of the Tory party that thinks they’re being woke because they elected a brown leader.

I was saying to Ms GL yesterday that this might make some of the Red Wallers a bit likelier to return to Labour. What fun we have.

[C69]

Let’s be honest, there’s a part of the Tory party that thinks they’re being woke because they elected a brown leader.

I was saying to Ms GL yesterday that this might make some of the Red Wallers a bit likelier to return to Labour. What fun we have.

Tbh Mr Starmer is a quintessentially nice white middle class Sir with a background in Law and Order.

[GogLais]

Let’s be honest, there’s a part of the Tory party that thinks they’re being woke because they elected a brown leader.

I was saying to Ms GL yesterday that this might make some of the Red Wallers a bit likelier to return to Labour. What fun we have.

Tbh Mr Starmer is a quintessentially nice white middle class Sir with a background in Law and Order.

Job done.

[tabascoboy]

[petej]

This is a key reason why getting the Tories out is so important regardless of any understandable reservations about Starmer. There is a process/pathway to be followed which involves investigating brexit impact and only then can policy be changed.

[I like neeps]

This is a key reason why getting the Tories out is so important regardless of any understandable reservations about Starmer. There is a process/pathway to be followed which involves investigating brexit impact and only then can policy be changed.

Starmer is not going to go near an inquiry into Brexit, he and Labour will do absolutely everything they can to not talk about Brexit. The Tories would see it as a gift if Starmer was even a bit critical of Brexit as their media acolytes can cry betrayal.

[C69]

This is a key reason why getting the Tories out is so important regardless of any understandable reservations about Starmer. There is a process/pathway to be followed which involves investigating brexit impact and only then can policy be changed.

Starmer is not going to go near an inquiry into Brexit, he and Labour will do absolutely everything they can to not talk about Brexit. The Tories would see it as a gift if Starmer was even a bit critical of Brexit as their media acolytes can cry betrayal.

Tbh Labour should say feck all like Cameron did.
They have a massive job on their hands with crumbling public services. It's not just about poorly paid staff.
The infrastructure issues are enormous.
The North South divide and levelling up needs to be a big election call as well as Energy and cost of living.
Just highlight the Tory failures over and over.

[_Os_]

I watched Channel 4 News and Sky News this evening. All the journalists were saying this indicates a hung parliament, then they put their numbers up, and they've taken the percentage of the vote this local election and mapped it onto all 650 Westminster seats. But the Lib Dems are polling at 10%-ish UK wide and not 18%, and obviously independents aren't going to be getting 20%+. It seems like the media have forgotten this is only most of England outside London. Wales/Scotland/London are going to be adding a lot to Labour and very little to the Tories. This result indicates a Labour majority more than any other outcome imo.

Indeed such a strange conflation. Very poor political science indeed.

At risk of replying to myself (no one on the thread has really said much on the topic or seems to disagree), I've looked into the numbers a bit more over the last few days.

I looked at four constituencies (all in southern England) I know well enough to describe the type of people/economy/housing they have, taking 3 or 4 wards from each which again I know the demographics well enough to not need Google. 14 wards across 4 Westminster constituencies. I then compiled the results for each ward in the 2023/2022/2019 council election, the overall council result in each of those elections, and also the constituency result in the 2019/2017 general election. 8 pieces of data for each ward.

From looking at all that the one liner for this election is really simple, "people voted for whoever was most likely to remove the Tories". Not the convoluted mess the media have come up with of a hung parliament based on the Lib Dems/Greens/Others taking 40% of the vote in a GE, which is not likely at all. But instead simply "people voted for whoever was most likely to remove the Tories".

Sometimes this wasn't precise, a Lib Dem may have been second in a ward previously and the Lib Dems may have been doing okay-ish on the council (but not first or second), but Labour were second in the council and second in the constituency seat so Labour came from third in the ward to win. But the pattern remained whoever was second somewhere (and mostly the same party was second across different elections, so whatever imperfect information the voter had was correct anyway) behind the Tory, suddenly got half the votes from those placed 3rd and 4th and it looks like a portion of the previously Tory votes too. Sometimes this was very clear where the turnout was the same as 2019 (as in almost the exact same amount of votes), and the votes lost from the previously first placed Tory and the 3rd and 4th placed parties exactly matches the gain for the previously 2nd placed party who won. If any model isn't outputting something basic like "it's FPTP, people voted for whoever was second previously to remove the Tories", then it is over complicating things.

One interesting thing which I've not seen mentioned anywhere. Working class areas that previously had some UKIP footprint, have disappeared into the Labour vote on an almost 1:1 basis. The middle/upper class areas I looked at all had a past UKIP footprint that was tiny or didn't exist, so I'm less sure where those votes went to. Nowhere I looked at had Reform UK candidates (they fielded 500 candidates and got 6 councillors). It seems possible the Tory attempt to eat UKIP, meant they took all its headbanging membership and its policies, but many of UKIP's voters may have just never been prepared to vote Tory (even if they agree with Tory policies) because they're never going to trust them. Reform UK at the moment is incapable of filling the same space UKIP did at its peak (mostly because the Tories themselves now dominate that space, but also because Labour hasn't taken the bait and given people a reason to not vote Labour). In other words the Tory stuff on Rwanda and small boats, may be a total waste of time if the point is winning votes.

This election was heavily tilted in favour of the Tories. Council elections favour Tory voters because they're older and turn out more. It was held in England but not London or Birmingham and tilted towards shires, the Tory heartland. The Tories got 26% of the popular vote. If this is all repeated (not the literal results as the media are spinning it, but the clear intention that "people voted for whoever was most likely to remove the Tories") at a GE, then the Tories will be at risk of a really incredible defeat.

Tory MPs now talk about "18 months until the next election", meaning the general election. But the next set of elections are in May 2024, in London/Manchester/West Midlands, these are more favourable to Labour than this election was. Not only do they now need to turn this around (step one should be send loony Tory MPs to the backbenches, and prevent them talking non-stop on loony far right TV "news" channels), they also look committed to sacrificing momentum for a winter 2024 election. They're just kicking the can and hoping.

[C69]

I watched Channel 4 News and Sky News this evening. All the journalists were saying this indicates a hung parliament, then they put their numbers up, and they've taken the percentage of the vote this local election and mapped it onto all 650 Westminster seats. But the Lib Dems are polling at 10%-ish UK wide and not 18%, and obviously independents aren't going to be getting 20%+. It seems like the media have forgotten this is only most of England outside London. Wales/Scotland/London are going to be adding a lot to Labour and very little to the Tories. This result indicates a Labour majority more than any other outcome imo.

Indeed such a strange conflation. Very poor political science indeed.

At risk of replying to myself (no one on the thread has really said much on the topic or seems to disagree), I've looked into the numbers a bit more over the last few days.

I looked at four constituencies (all in southern England) I know well enough to describe the type of people/economy/housing they have, taking 3 or 4 wards from each which again I know the demographics well enough to not need Google. 14 wards across 4 Westminster constituencies. I then compiled the results for each ward in the 2023/2022/2019 council election, the overall council result in each of those elections, and also the constituency result in the 2019/2017 general election. 8 pieces of data for each ward.

From looking at all that the one liner for this election is really simple, "people voted for whoever was most likely to remove the Tories". Not the convoluted mess the media have come up with of a hung parliament based on the Lib Dems/Greens/Others taking 40% of the vote in a GE, which is not likely at all. But instead simply "people voted for whoever was most likely to remove the Tories".

Sometimes this wasn't precise, a Lib Dem may have been second in a ward previously and the Lib Dems may have been doing okay-ish on the council (but not first or second), but Labour were second in the council and second in the constituency seat so Labour came from third in the ward to win. But the pattern remained whoever was second somewhere (and mostly the same party was second across different elections, so whatever imperfect information the voter had was correct anyway) behind the Tory, suddenly got half the votes from those placed 3rd and 4th and it looks like a portion of the previously Tory votes too. Sometimes this was very clear where the turnout was the same as 2019 (as in almost the exact same amount of votes), and the votes lost from the previously first placed Tory and the 3rd and 4th placed parties exactly matches the gain for the previously 2nd placed party who won. If any model isn't outputting something basic like "it's FPTP, people voted for whoever was second previously to remove the Tories", then it is over complicating things.

One interesting thing which I've not seen mentioned anywhere. Working class areas that previously had some UKIP footprint, have disappeared into the Labour vote on an almost 1:1 basis. The middle/upper class areas I looked at all had a past UKIP footprint that was tiny or didn't exist, so I'm less sure where those votes went to. Nowhere I looked at had Reform UK candidates (they fielded 500 candidates and got 6 councillors). It seems possible the Tory attempt to eat UKIP, meant they took all its headbanging membership and its policies, but many of UKIP's voters may have just never been prepared to vote Tory (even if they agree with Tory policies) because they're never going to trust them. Reform UK at the moment is incapable of filling the same space UKIP did at its peak (mostly because the Tories themselves now dominate that space, but also because Labour hasn't taken the bait and given people a reason to not vote Labour). In other words the Tory stuff on Rwanda and small boats, may be a total waste of time if the point is winning votes.

This election was heavily tilted in favour of the Tories. Council elections favour Tory voters because they're older and turn out more. It was held in England but not London or Birmingham and tilted towards shires, the Tory heartland. The Tories got 26% of the popular vote. If this is all repeated (not the literal results as the media are spinning it, but the clear intention that "people voted for whoever was most likely to remove the Tories") at a GE, then the Tories will be at risk of a really incredible defeat.

Tory MPs now talk about "18 months until the next election", meaning the general election. But the next set of elections are in May 2024, in London/Manchester/West Midlands, these are more favourable to Labour than this election was. Not only do they now need to turn this around (step one should be send loony Tory MPs to the backbenches, and prevent them talking non-stop on loony far right TV "news" channels), they also look committed to sacrificing momentum for a winter 2024 election. They're just kicking the can and hoping.

Next May when the NHS and Public sector will be on strike again unless the magic money tree is watered and cash found to prevent public services grinding to a halt just before a general election.
I agree that these elections did not have the Labour stroing holds.
I think the last GE was very peculiar about Boris and Brexit. The red wall lent their votes to the Tories and hated Corbyn.
I think this may be the election when tactical voting may be at it's most prevalent with the Tories crying about electoral pacts etc

[fishfoodie]

Next May when the NHS and Public sector will be on strike again unless the magic money tree is watered and cash found to prevent public services grinding to a halt just before a general election.
I agree that these elections did not have the Labour stroing holds.
I think the last GE was very peculiar about Boris and Brexit. The red wall lent their votes to the Tories and hated Corbyn.
I think this may be the election when tactical voting may be at it's most prevalent with the Tories crying about electoral pacts etc

I think it was, UK in a Changing Europe that did some great research & one of the interesting things they found was that voters identified far, far more strongly as Leave/Remain, than they did Tory/Labour/etc

This is why Starmer would be an absolute cabbage if he didn't completely avoid Brexit as a manifesto item, It's why it was so easy for Labour voters to support the "Oven Ready Brexit" promise, it cut across Party lines, & to voters it was more important than any Party loyalty.

It's probably okay to criticize the implementation & handling of the deal, because voters have already made up their minds on that; but anything that looks like going against the vote will be seized upon by the Tories & the Press & will be disastrous.

[_Os_]

Ben Ansell has just put this blog post up:

https://benansell.substack.com/p/tactical-coping

It says the same as I have, in considerably more detail. The base case is now Labour majority, the second most likely is Labour minority with some sort of pact with the Lib Dems. He has also made this app:

https://livedataoxford.shinyapps.io/GE24Simulator/

When you put current polling numbers in (Tories: 29%, Labour: 44%, Lib Dems: 11%, SNP: 4%, Reform UK: 4%, Greens: 4%, Plaid Cymru: 1%). With the tactical voting to 0.3 (30% of those that voted Labour/Lib Dems/Greens switch to back whichever had the most votes in a constituency in 2019 ... in wards I looked through from the council election this % was more like 50%, when the Tories were previously first and people were tactically voting to remove them) = Labour: 361 seats, Tories: 170, Lib Dems: 48, SNP: 47, PC: 4, Greens: 1.

That looks about right to me as things stand. Changing the Tory and Labour percentage a small amount gives quite different outcomes. If everything else stays the same and the Tories chip 3% off Labour and add it to their total (Tories on 32%, Labour 41%) = Labour: 325 seats, Tories 214, SNP: 50, Lib Dems: 37, PC: 4, Greens: 1.

Could be why the Tories are going completely loony on the immigration stuff, and Sunak is making TikToks supporting obscure regional soccer clubs. Even chipping tiny amounts off Labour and adding it to the Tory total starts making things much less worse for the Tories.

[I like neeps]

From FT analysis:

"Britain’s privatised water and sewage companies paid £1.4bn in dividends in 2022, up from £540mn the previous year, despite rising household bills and a wave of public criticism over sewage outflows."

What a total failure Thatcher's privatisations have been. Oil wealth, housing, water. Sold the family china and the kids inheritance for the illusion of wealth.

[SaintK]

Little Miss Vanity off on her travels again.............I wonder who's paying?

Liz Truss, the former prime minister, is to visit Taiwan next week, where she will deliver a speech likely to anger Beijing and potentially upset the UK government’s careful approach to China relations.
Speaking ahead of her visit, she said:

Taiwan is a beacon of freedom and democracy. I’m looking forward to showing solidarity with the Taiwanese people in person in the face of increasingly aggressive behaviour and rhetoric from the regime in Beijing.

The former Tory leader’s office said today that she is also expected to meet senior members of the Taiwanese government.

However, the trip comes after a warning by the foreign secretary James Cleverly that Britain should not “pull the shutters down” on China, as it would be counterproductive to the national interest

[dpedin]

From FT analysis:

"Britain’s privatised water and sewage companies paid £1.4bn in dividends in 2022, up from £540mn the previous year, despite rising household bills and a wave of public criticism over sewage outflows."

What a total failure Thatcher's privatisations have been. Oil wealth, housing, water. Sold the family china and the kids inheritance for the illusion of wealth.

England, one of the few, if not the only, country in the world to privatise water and sewage systems. Water and sewage should be seen as a public health priority not as a vehicle for private sector making a profit. Since the days of John Snow and Cholera in the 1850's in London everyone knows a healthy water supply and safe sewage systems was a critical part of sustaining a healthy population, selling it off for profit, which mainly go to overseas corporations/Govs, has been a fecking disaster not just economically but for public health. It will be the death of the Tory Party.