The Brexit Thread

[Lobby]

So despite all the leaks to the press last night that there would be an announcement of a deal first thing, still no deal agreed yet.
Analysts generally agreeing that it is a fairly "thin" deal that will be agreed in the end

There will of course be major challenges in the future relationship. Ultimately the EU achieved their main goals from Brexit, and the UK arguably did not. The EU successfully avoided a border on the island of Ireland and protected the single market from significant cherry picking. The UK succeeded in the headline goal of leaving the EU, but failed as proponents had expected to retain the benefits of membership without incurring the costs, and more recently in overturning any of the withdrawal agreement as the staunch Brexiteers had hoped. The EU also looks stronger for demonstrating so far that leaving is not an easy option, while the UK’s ability to maintain trade relations while escaping ‘the Brussels Effect’ of following EU regulations is going to be tested, business for example will wish to reverse the decision to leave some European regulatory agencies.

It seems the only reason the deal hasn’t been signed off yet is that the EU negotiators were using outdated figures for calculating their fish quotas last night, so these are having to be redone.

As the deal is something like 2000 pages long, anyone suggesting at this stage that either side has won is probably lying and/or wrong.

[frodder]

Has the propaganda war started yet? The Daily Express claiming Johnny Foreigner has backed down etc...

[tc27]

Bloomberg reporting its actually finally done.

[I like neeps]

Has the propaganda war started yet? The Daily Express claiming Johnny Foreigner has backed down etc...

All the press will. A deal being reached is the achievement nevermind it's not nearly as good as what we had.

Sad really. All so pointless. Glad a deal has been done but mostly sad.

[tc27]

Well its a very thin deal that will have ti be build on over the next few decades.

But is miles better than a no deal shitshow.

[SaintK]

Has the propaganda war started yet? The Daily Express claiming Johnny Foreigner has backed down etc...

All the press will. A deal being reached is the achievement nevermind it's not nearly as good as what we had.

Sad really. All so pointless. Glad a deal has been done but mostly sad.

Downing St have already published a scorecard which shows just how much the "won" the negotiations by!!

An internal British analysis, first reported by the Guido Fawkes website and confirmed by a U.K. official, claims 28 “wins” for the U.K., 11 for the EU, and 26 areas where the two sides compromised. But, in several cases, what the U.K. describes as a “win” doesn’t accurately compare with both sides’ opening demands.
An initial version of the document contained a list of pledges made by the 2016 “Vote Leave” pro-Brexit campaign and how the deal fulfilled them, a clear sign of Johnson’s team trying to convince his party that he had delivered his Brexit promises. That section has subsequently been removed.

It ain't going to stand close scrutiny by the looks

JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s chief U.K. economist, Malcolm Barr, offered a different assessment from the British government.

“The EU appears to have secured a deal which allows it to retain nearly all of the advantages it derives from its trading relationship with the U.K., while giving it the ability to use regulatory structures to cherry pick among the sectors where the U.K. had previously enjoyed advantages in the trading relationship,” Barr said in a research note.

[tc27]

Von der Leyen is an impressive figure have to say.

[Saint]

Sounds like BoJo may have got to the "least bad" deal possible - which is still a long way off what was promised in 2016. The devil's in the detail though, and in 2,000 pages there's a lot of detail

[I like neeps]

Sounds like BoJo may have got to the "least bad" deal possible - which is still a long way off what was promised in 2016. The devil's in the detail though, and in 2,000 pages there's a lot of detail

What are the benefits of the least bad deal though?

I get it's not no deal but what are the actual benefits of Brexit?

[tc27]

Sounds like BoJo may have got to the "least bad" deal possible - which is still a long way off what was promised in 2016. The devil's in the detail though, and in 2,000 pages there's a lot of detail

Most people have a superficial understanding of free trade (basically thinking its just tariffs) and he has achieved that (leaving the single market is a huge obstacle to free trade but is to complex for most people to understand). The direct effect of EU law and the ECJ is also removed replaced by more ersatz 'joint committee's and simple trade retaliation's so that is another way he can say the 2016 promise was delivered.

On the other hand waiting 5.5 years to take back complete control over fisheries will be harder to sell.

The UK will inventible be pulled by the EU's regulatory regime and will probably plug back into them over the decades as a rule taker but that's not something thats a political problem right now.

[And 1 guest]

So long and thanks for all the fish? Ill definitely order one more fish supper a week.

[tabascoboy]

The end of blaming the EU for anything and everything and governments taking responsibility for their own and our nations shortcomings and fuck-ups? I won't hold my breath!

[The Druid]

Boris at the end of his Brexit statement "And now for the sprouts err Media"

[Saint]

Sounds like BoJo may have got to the "least bad" deal possible - which is still a long way off what was promised in 2016. The devil's in the detail though, and in 2,000 pages there's a lot of detail

What are the benefits of the least bad deal though?

I get it's not no deal but what are the actual benefits of Brexit?

Um.......... pass

[Enzedder]

Ah yeah, well done Boris.

[Insane_Homer]

Excellent news, now to watch the ERG tear the Tory party apart from within over the next 3 months. Double win!!

[SaintK]

Ah yeah, well done Boris.

Yes, he'll take the plaudits while others shovel the shit that he's left in his wake as usual!

[Kawazaki]

There are no benefits to Brexit until the UK starts to negotiate bilateral trade deals with countries that the EU hasn't got a FTA with and/or likely never will.

When that starts to happen then people might start to view leaving the EU differently but until then we are always going to be in the debit column.

[GogLais]

Ah yeah, well done Boris.

Yes, he'll take the plaudits while others shovel the shit that he's left in his wake as usual!

Last man standing.

[Random1]

Well, I’ll say well done to them all. They’ve obviously worked really hard at it, and the early indications are that it’s a pretty huge step forward.

Next few years will be challenging, but it feels like common sense on both sides prevailed in the end, and I’m an optimist, so I’m happy.

[Biffer]

There are no benefits to Brexit until the UK starts to negotiate bilateral trade deals with countries that the EU hasn't got a FTA with and/or likely never will.

When that starts to happen then people might start to view leaving the EU differently but until then we are always going to be in the debit column.

And that's basically USA and China. Both of whom would rip us a new arsehole in trade talks.

[Sandstorm]

Well, I’ll say well done to them all. They’ve obviously worked really hard at it, and the early indications are that it’s a pretty huge step forward.

Next few years will be challenging, but it feels like common sense on both sides prevailed in the end, and I’m an optimist, so I’m happy.

Brexit is shite, but it’s still way better than Covid.

[Northern Lights]

There are no benefits to Brexit until the UK starts to negotiate bilateral trade deals with countries that the EU hasn't got a FTA with and/or likely never will.

When that starts to happen then people might start to view leaving the EU differently but until then we are always going to be in the debit column.

And that's basically USA and China. Both of whom would rip us a new arsehole in trade talks.

US not China. We will be pulled closer to the yank orbit along with others, that is not a bad thing as much as plenty will protest otherwise

[Biffer]

There are no benefits to Brexit until the UK starts to negotiate bilateral trade deals with countries that the EU hasn't got a FTA with and/or likely never will.

When that starts to happen then people might start to view leaving the EU differently but until then we are always going to be in the debit column.

And that's basically USA and China. Both of whom would rip us a new arsehole in trade talks.

US not China. We will be pulled closer to the yank orbit along with others, that is not a bad thing as much as plenty will protest otherwise

I know that those who push the free market as a fundamental good will think being closer to the US will be a good thing, but the US is travelling down the road that is away from genuine free markets and doesn't know how to deal with it. Markets are just a tool, not a fundamental good in themselves - this is what a lot of people who espouse that economic model fail to understand, alongside the abrogation of any kind of morality in macroeconomic decision making.

[Northern Lights]

And that's basically USA and China. Both of whom would rip us a new arsehole in trade talks.

US not China. We will be pulled closer to the yank orbit along with others, that is not a bad thing as much as plenty will protest otherwise

I know that those who push the free market as a fundamental good will think being closer to the US will be a good thing, but the US is travelling down the road that is away from genuine free markets and doesn't know how to deal with it. Markets are just a tool, not a fundamental good in themselves - this is what a lot of people who espouse that economic model fail to understand, alongside the abrogation of any kind of morality in macroeconomic decision making.

The US hasn’t been and isn’t a free market, that maybe what is “sold” but it isn’t as anyone who has dealt with the US knows.

The market is the tool for private enterprise or provision versus the state. Some things are better left to private enterprise whilst other areas are better left to the state.

There is a lot more to being pulled into the US orbit over say the EU orbit though, whether it’s defence, diplomacy or closer culturally. The US is very diverse and is certainly not a bunch of redneck trumpers.

Their top unis consistently ranked among the best in the world, so access for our kids into them possibly becoming easier and working closer with them is all positive.

The snobbish attitude to the US that some espouse on here or PR is pretty distasteful tbh.

[Biffer]

US not China. We will be pulled closer to the yank orbit along with others, that is not a bad thing as much as plenty will protest otherwise

I know that those who push the free market as a fundamental good will think being closer to the US will be a good thing, but the US is travelling down the road that is away from genuine free markets and doesn't know how to deal with it. Markets are just a tool, not a fundamental good in themselves - this is what a lot of people who espouse that economic model fail to understand, alongside the abrogation of any kind of morality in macroeconomic decision making.

The US hasn’t been and isn’t a free market, that maybe what is “sold” but it isn’t as anyone who has dealt with the US knows.

The market is the tool for private enterprise or provision versus the state. Some things are better left to private enterprise whilst other areas are better left to the state.

There is a lot more to being pulled into the US orbit over say the EU orbit though, whether it’s defence, diplomacy or closer culturally. The US is very diverse and is certainly not a bunch of redneck trumpers.

Their top unis consistently ranked among the best in the world, so access for our kids into them possibly becoming easier and working closer with them is all positive.

The snobbish attitude to the US that some espouse on here or PR is pretty distasteful tbh.

I like the US, I'm usually there three, maybe four times a year for work or holiday - and not in the normal visitor locations, I'm most commonly in Colorado, Utah and Ohio. I don't have a snobbish attitude to it.

Worth pointing out that our top unis are also consistently ranked among the best in the world, the UK is second globally to the US in University education and research, clearly ahead of the rest of the world. There's already a great deal of cooperation and there's never been anything stopping us doing more except for a lack of funding and enthusiasm from UK government's of all colours (including devolved admins).

I don't particularly want to be closer culturally than we already are. When I look at the cultural differences I see between UK and USA, I'm comfortable that I want those distances to stay, for the most part, although there are one or two areas where business culture could learn a lot. I don't want to follow their diplomatic lead of the last twenty years.

Markets are a tool for states - they set the rules and it allows them to look to use private industry to produce desirable societal outcomes. That's what they're for in my mind, and also in the writings of people like Adam Smith, John Hume, Keynes etc.

The US not being a free market was kind of my point. We don't want to follow their highly deregulated model as it leads to monopolistic style situations and other market set ups that are dominated by a small number of players, creating distortions, market control by private companies and a lack of efficiency for the consumer. Companies should not be dictating the terms a market operates in to governments.

[Rinkals]

I was a little surprised to see NL's endorsement of American business methods.

When I worked in Aberdeen, we had multiple joint projects with American Companies and I found them pretty cavalier about HR issues and more than willing to flout safety regulations in the interests of profit. Which, in an industry known for its hazardous working environment had a tendency to raise few hackles.

[Northern Lights]

I was a little surprised to see NL's endorsement of American business methods.

When I worked in Aberdeen, we had multiple joint projects with American Companies and I found them pretty cavalier about HR issues and more than willing to flout safety regulations in the interests of profit. Which, in an industry known for its hazardous working environment had a tendency to raise few hackles.

You don’t half talk a lot of shite.

Firstly where did I endorse American business methods?

I will give the rest of your half arsed anecdotal comment the disdain it deserves.

[Rinkals]

The US hasn’t been and isn’t a free market, that maybe what is “sold” but it isn’t as anyone who has dealt with the US knows.

The market is the tool for private enterprise or provision versus the state. Some things are better left to private enterprise whilst other areas are better left to the state.

There is a lot more to being pulled into the US orbit over say the EU orbit though, whether it’s defence, diplomacy or closer culturally. The US is very diverse and is certainly not a bunch of redneck trumpers.

Their top unis consistently ranked among the best in the world, so access for our kids into them possibly becoming easier and working closer with them is all positive.

The snobbish attitude to the US that some espouse on here or PR is pretty distasteful tbh.

Sorry, I took this as an endorsement.

Some things are better left to private enterprise whilst other areas are better left to the state.

The US is very diverse and is certainly not a bunch of redneck trumpers.

Their top unis consistently ranked among the best in the world

The snobbish attitude to the US that some espouse on here or PR is pretty distasteful tbh.

[Insane_Homer]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/25/worl ... ticleShare

[Insane_Homer]

"talking through the back of his neck"

[Sandstorm]

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/25/worl ... ticleShare

[Lobby]

"talking through the back of his neck"

Erasmus was a great scheme for European students, but the numbers of UK students that took advantage of it was very small. Only 15,000 UK students took part, at a cost of £200 MILLION a year, or about £13K for each for them. In return about 32,000 European students came here to study for free.

[Saint]

"talking through the back of his neck"

Erasmus was a great scheme for European students, but the numbers of UK students that took advantage of it was very small. Only 15,000 UK students took part, at a cost of £200 MILLION a year, or about £13K for each for them. In return about 32,000 European students came here to study for free.

A perfectly valid argument, and if that's what he had said at the time then that would have been fine. But he didn't.

[Biffer]

"talking through the back of his neck"

Erasmus was a great scheme for European students, but the numbers of UK students that took advantage of it was very small. Only 15,000 UK students took part, at a cost of £200 MILLION a year, or about £13K for each for them. In return about 32,000 European students came here to study for free.

Yeah, but how many of those 32,000 stayed here, added to our research base etc. The universities viewed Erasmus as a recruitment tool to help the UK university infrastructure remain ahead of Europeans by recruiting their brightest and best. It worked.

[Lobby]

"talking through the back of his neck"

Erasmus was a great scheme for European students, but the numbers of UK students that took advantage of it was very small. Only 15,000 UK students took part, at a cost of £200 MILLION a year, or about £13K for each for them. In return about 32,000 European students came here to study for free.

A perfectly valid argument, and if that's what he had said at the time then that would have been fine. But he didn't.

indeed, but its hardly news that Bojo will lie and bluster himself out of any situation, and that his statements often have only the most tenuous link with reality. Its a bit like the SNP complaining about seed potatoes as if its a monumental issue. Far more important than Erasmus is the UK's continued participation in European-wide research through the Horizon programme, and here there is much better news in that we will still be part of this scheme, and will be able still to take part in these collaborative research projects. If the UK had withdrawn from this, or had not been allowed to continue as a member, it would have been a disaster.

[Paddington Bear]

Erasmus was a way of allowing students to get pissed in other European cities. Let’s not pretend it was exchanging Einsteins across Europe.

[Northern Lights]

"talking through the back of his neck"

Erasmus was a great scheme for European students, but the numbers of UK students that took advantage of it was very small. Only 15,000 UK students took part, at a cost of £200 MILLION a year, or about £13K for each for them. In return about 32,000 European students came here to study for free.

Yeah, but how many of those 32,000 stayed here, added to our research base etc. The universities viewed Erasmus as a recruitment tool to help the UK university infrastructure remain ahead of Europeans by recruiting their brightest and best. It worked.

Does this not mean in that case that the unis will now have to work harder to attract the brightest and best without a state subsidy?

[Northern Lights]

The US hasn’t been and isn’t a free market, that maybe what is “sold” but it isn’t as anyone who has dealt with the US knows.

The market is the tool for private enterprise or provision versus the state. Some things are better left to private enterprise whilst other areas are better left to the state.

There is a lot more to being pulled into the US orbit over say the EU orbit though, whether it’s defence, diplomacy or closer culturally. The US is very diverse and is certainly not a bunch of redneck trumpers.

Their top unis consistently ranked among the best in the world, so access for our kids into them possibly becoming easier and working closer with them is all positive.

The snobbish attitude to the US that some espouse on here or PR is pretty distasteful tbh.

Sorry, I took this as an endorsement.

Some things are better left to private enterprise whilst other areas are better left to the state.

The US is very diverse and is certainly not a bunch of redneck trumpers.

Their top unis consistently ranked among the best in the world

The snobbish attitude to the US that some espouse on here or PR is pretty distasteful tbh.

Which is not an endorsement or otherwise of their business methods. Plenty to admire with the yanks, no mention of their business methods, not that a bright spark like you would see it.

[Rinkals]

The US hasn’t been and isn’t a free market, that maybe what is “sold” but it isn’t as anyone who has dealt with the US knows.

The market is the tool for private enterprise or provision versus the state. Some things are better left to private enterprise whilst other areas are better left to the state.

There is a lot more to being pulled into the US orbit over say the EU orbit though, whether it’s defence, diplomacy or closer culturally. The US is very diverse and is certainly not a bunch of redneck trumpers.

Their top unis consistently ranked among the best in the world, so access for our kids into them possibly becoming easier and working closer with them is all positive.

The snobbish attitude to the US that some espouse on here or PR is pretty distasteful tbh.

Sorry, I took this as an endorsement.

Some things are better left to private enterprise whilst other areas are better left to the state.

The US is very diverse and is certainly not a bunch of redneck trumpers.

Their top unis consistently ranked among the best in the world

The snobbish attitude to the US that some espouse on here or PR is pretty distasteful tbh.

Which is not an endorsement or otherwise of their business methods. Plenty to admire with the yanks, no mention of their business methods, not that a bright spark like you would see it.

I was under the impression that this thread was about Brexit. If you post expressing admiration for Americans on this thread, I don't think it's unreasonable to to surmise that you are not referring to their prowess on the football field.

But if you assure me that this admiration has nothing to do with the prospect of doing trade with the US on their terms then I will take your word for it.