What's going on in Ukraine?

[laurent]

Truth in this?

Wrong rank on the shoulder (Lt Colonel) so passing likeness only so far.
conservative estimate of the Kupiansk offensive

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

Very interesting rumour *if true*

[dkm57]

It's not a defeat it's a 'good will gesture', hopefully the first of many all the way back to Moscow.

[Flockwitt]

I'm seeing a lot of disparity here. Some russian aligned maps trying to make it look like narrow channels, others paint a big swath like that. Others in between. The key point is that point of the breakthrough, not the top at Kupiansk. Russian sources are saying the Ukrainians have got a column to the bridge at Sen'kove, on the Oblisk river as is shown here. Critical if true and they can hold the location.

[yermum]

Front lines are never clean except on a map. I wouldnt read too much into the disparity

[tabascoboy]

Not sure if this marks the region rather than the town itself, but could be at the outer town limits as there are buildings in the background

[laurent]

Not sure if this marks the region rather than the town itself, but could be at the outer town limits as there are buildings in the background

It's apparently local district mark (a few km from the city itself), these photos kind of confirm that they are feeling safe enough, far enough from fighting...

Most likely fighting is taking place in the town .

[tabascoboy]

[Niegs]

Her little leaps of joy...

Even more emotional, this one...

[Calculon]

Christ, I really want them to kill every last fucking Russian solder in Ukraine

[PornDog]

[petej]

The 2nd best army in the world

[fishfoodie]

The 2nd best army in the world

Well I guess we know what Nikita Mazepin is doing now he's lost his F1 drive

[Niegs]

On the first couple of watches, I didn't realize there were many more Ukrainians than the highlighted one! I just thought some lads fell off due to the rapid rate, but I can see at least two in the ditch on the right shooting them off. And looks to be Humvees on the road with someone standing in the back.

Tank out of ammo?

[tabascoboy]

The 2nd best army in the world

Before I started to watch it, thought "I hope they play the BEnny Hill music..."

[_Os_]

Trying to catch up with today's events is quite difficult, there's a deluge of information easily matching March/April. Back then the main thing was destroyed supply columns and captured vehicles, and there's still some of that now, there's some very interesting captures of high tech Russian air defence systems today (that NATO will be interested in). But the main thing now is definitely Russian POWs or dead Russians, Telegram is loaded with the stuff. It's not easy keeping track of it all with the pace it's moving and looks a lot worse for Russia than it seemed initially.

[_Os_]

This thread is good. A strip down of Russian military equipment and analysis of the components. Lots of non-Russian COTS (Commercial Off The Shelf) components.

[Uncle fester]

Seeing reports that Izyum has fallen?

[laurent]

Seeing reports that Izyum has fallen?

They are supposed to have large number of troops there But there are noises .

The war minister
Arestovych: "We have a huge problem... we have nowhere to keep all the POWs".

[Hellraiser]

We are witnessing the final collapse of the Russian Empire.

[Flockwitt]

We are witnessing the final collapse of the Russian Empire.

Pity it's not quite the final collapse of Putin's Empire, but hopefully that day is not too far off.

[Guy Smiley]

We are witnessing the final collapse of the Russian Empire.

Pity it's not quite the final collapse of Putin's Empire, but hopefully that day is not too far off.

I saw some headline the other day on Reddit that I didn't bother following up... suggesting a group within Russia were seeking to depose Putin and charge him with treason. I thought it too far fetched but there must come some sort of tipping point coming when the reality of the losses is revealed domestically.

I guess the worry is the level of desperation that might be reached before that inevitable end comes... and what might be unleashed as a result of that desperation.

[Flockwitt]

We are witnessing the final collapse of the Russian Empire.

Pity it's not quite the final collapse of Putin's Empire, but hopefully that day is not too far off.

I saw some headline the other day on Reddit that I didn't bother following up... suggesting a group within Russia were seeking to depose Putin and charge him with treason. I thought it too far fetched but there must come some sort of tipping point coming when the reality of the losses is revealed domestically.

I guess the worry is the level of desperation that might be reached before that inevitable end comes... and what might be unleashed as a result of that desperation.

I think Putin's problems really begin when the ultra-nationalists turn on him. They'll support him through any kind of oppressive dictatorship in the name of the greater Russian empire... except when he stuffs up.,

[Guy Smiley]

I think Putin's problems really begin when the ultra-nationalists turn on him. They'll support him through any kind of oppressive dictatorship in the name of the greater Russian empire... except when he stuffs up.,

Harking back to Hellraiser's comment abut the fall of the Russian Empire... that ultranationalist element is not going to handle the collapse that must be coming well. I've speculated for ages that the US is headed for some sort of collapse / civil breakdown or war. I wonder just how messy Russia could get and the potential for multiple conflicts erupting along its various borders.

[Gumboot]

Seeing reports that Izyum has fallen?

Has it fallen already? Last I heard it's all but encircled and getting shelled from 3 directions.

[_Os_]

Izyum is now cut off.

[Gumboot]

Izyum is now cut off.

This is a game changer, Shirley?

[laurent]

Izyum is now cut off.

This is a game changer, Shirley?

It cuts of supplies in Karkiv eastern front and Luhansk, these can be done from further south but will cause bottlenecks as that would be in Donetsk.

[tabascoboy]

[_Os_]

Izyum is now cut off.

This is a game changer, Shirley?

It cuts of supplies in Karkiv eastern front and Luhansk, these can be done from further south but will cause bottlenecks as that would be in Donetsk.

The general feeling seems to be that the southern route isn't viable for the size of force Russia has at Izyum, the geography isn't favourable/Ukrainian artillery is in range. Without the road and rail to Kupyansk Russia can't hold it unless they break through Ukrainian lines and relieve it.

Some reports that the Russians have fled Izyum.

Also some reports that the Russians are fleeing Svyatohirs'k and Lyman in the northern part of the Donetsk front, south east of Izyum/Kharkiv front. If that's true and Ukraine can push up then Izyum will be completely surrounded, I know there was Azov operating in that Slov'yans'k area at one point recently. If it's true Ukraine will need a mobile reserve to really take advantage though and I guess everything is committed to Kharkiv.

[tabascoboy]

This is a game changer, Shirley?

It cuts of supplies in Karkiv eastern front and Luhansk, these can be done from further south but will cause bottlenecks as that would be in Donetsk.

The general feeling seems to be that the southern route isn't viable for the size of force Russia has at Izyum, the geography isn't favourable/Ukrainian artillery is in range. Without the road and rail to Kupyansk Russia can't hold it unless they break through Ukrainian lines and relieve it.

Some reports that the Russians have fled Izyum.

Also some reports that the Russians are fleeing Svyatohirs'k and Lyman in the northern part of the Donetsk front, south east of Izyum/Kharkiv front. If that's true and Ukraine can push up then Izyum will be completely surrounded, I know there was Azov operating in that Slov'yans'k area at one point recently. If it's true Ukraine will need a mobile reserve to really take advantage though and I guess everything is committed to Kharkiv.

A pro-Russian reported that the city had surrendered to Ukraine earlier but that post was deleted for some reason.

Rumours (only rumours) of Putin calling a special meeting of his security council and troops being rushed southwards from Moscow region.

[_Os_]

A pro-Russian reported that the city had surrendered to Ukraine earlier but that post was deleted for some reason.

Rumours (only rumours) of Putin calling a special meeting of his security council and troops being rushed southwards from Moscow region.

Russian logistics is rail based, so holding Kupyansk is the key. but the Ukrainian strategy is based around attrition, so if it looks like they're going to come off worse they will pull back, Mariupol was the exception because they couldn't retreat. The measure of success is how many Russians killed/injured/taken prisoner and how much Russian equipment destroyed/captured.

If Ukraine do really well in the next few weeks, they could take out about 5%-10% of the Russian force. I've seen some video of Ukrainian low loaders transporting Russian armour (I guess back to Kharkiv city), not really the thing that gets videoed/photographed and uploaded though. The Russians left a lot behind, going on the Kyiv clean up it's going to take weeks moving all the Russian equipment/prisoners/dead bodies (which have a value, months back there were reports of Ukraine swapping 10 dead Russians for 1 living Ukrainian).

[_Os_]

One for the "Russians using WW2 era equipment" file. Prototypes of this truck were around during WW2 and it first went into mass production in 1946. Production ended in 1975 so it's at least half a century old.

[Flockwitt]

A pro-Russian reported that the city had surrendered to Ukraine earlier but that post was deleted for some reason.

Rumours (only rumours) of Putin calling a special meeting of his security council and troops being rushed southwards from Moscow region.

Russian logistics is rail based, so holding Kupyansk is the key. but the Ukrainian strategy is based around attrition, so if it looks like they're going to come off worse they will pull back, Mariupol was the exception because they couldn't retreat. The measure of success is how many Russians killed/injured/taken prisoner and how much Russian equipment destroyed/captured.

If Ukraine do really well in the next few weeks, they could take out about 5%-10% of the Russian force. I've seen some video of Ukrainian low loaders transporting Russian armour (I guess back to Kharkiv city), not really the thing that gets videoed/photographed and uploaded though. The Russians left a lot behind, going on the Kyiv clean up it's going to take weeks moving all the Russian equipment/prisoners/dead bodies (which have a value, months back there were reports of Ukraine swapping 10 dead Russians for 1 living Ukrainian).

There's been a change in the Ukrainian strategy. Once behind the Russian lines, they can play the mobile dynamic warfare game as they are able to protect the skies with the NATO stuff and don't have to worry about the Russian artillery. Russia is going to lose a chunk more than 5-10% of their forces. They'll lose what is in Izyum and in Kherson. Losing the units in those locations is game over effectively.

[_Os_]

There's been a change in the Ukrainian strategy. Once behind the Russian lines, they can play the mobile dynamic warfare game as they are able to protect the skies with the NATO stuff and don't have to worry about the Russian artillery. Russia is going to lose a chunk more than 5-10% of their forces. They'll lose what is in Izyum and in Kherson. Losing the units in those locations is game over effectively.

The 5%-10% is just my guess based on the Russian troop numbers floating around for Izyum. Kherson seems to have got bogged down for now, a lot of frontline units from that offensive have been pulled back and took heavy causalities (there was a story in either the Washington Post or NY Times that was grim reading, didn't seem to be many killed but entire units were hospitalised).

It's definitely all in the balance now, if Russia lost 20% of their ground forces and Kherson. Then they can definitely forget about the "land bridge to Crimea", and in Crimea itself their bases would end up within in Ukrainian artillery/missile range. that would mean full Russian mobilisation or effectively Russian surrender. The problem with full Russian mobilisation, is what equipment would they be using? Oryx has visually confirmed over 1000 Russian MBTs lost, that's already over a third of what Western analysts thought Russia had in working order. They'll be using T55s. But if Putin surrenders, then he opens himself to a coup from hardliners, which is where coups always come from.

[Hellraiser]

Kupyansk has fallen.

[Flockwitt]

The point with Kherson is that the Russian's can't get out. They're in direct contact with no way to make an effective withdrawal if they break off because of the bottleneck to get over the Dnipro. Those troops can be included in the loss total, it's only a matter of time before the attrition there wears them out, or Ukraine brings unstoppable force. The airborne divisions there are good, part of the reason they're giving the Ukrainians trouble, but the writing is on the wall.

[_Os_]

The point with Kherson is that the Russian's can't get out. They're in direct contact with no way to make an effective withdrawal if they break off because of the bottleneck to get over the Dnipro. Those troops can be included in the loss total, it's only a matter of time before the attrition there wears them out, or Ukraine brings unstoppable force. The airborne divisions there are good, part of the reason they're giving the Ukrainians trouble, but the writing is on the wall.

I agree Kherson will fall, posted (in July?) it would play out through August and September. Kherson is really vital for Russia to get the limited face saving tactical victories it wants (they've already lost strategically), so it's looking like it could take longer now. Mariupol showed a hopeless defence can end for a long time.

[Uncle fester]

For real?