Re: Stop voting for fucking Tories
Posted: Fri Sep 01, 2023 3:14 pm
Boat peoplesockwithaticket wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 2:26 pm And if we are back to pre-pandemic, why are so many people still struggling?
Boat peoplesockwithaticket wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 2:26 pm And if we are back to pre-pandemic, why are so many people still struggling?
And this is why I don't understand economics. By what measure is the economy back to pre-pandemic levels if people other than bankers (with their relatively freshly uncapped bonuses) are real terms poorer?tc27 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 2:42 pmInflation and (ironically) stagnant wages.sockwithaticket wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 2:26 pm And if we are back to pre-pandemic, why are so many people still struggling?
ONS keeps cocking up its initial data, then with a bit more time and more data has to substantially revise it. The figures are independent.
Changes in the economy aren’t evenly distributed. Energy prices hit the poor and manufacturing harder than they hit the wealthy and professional services, for example. The truth of the current squeeze is that most people are still doing fine.sockwithaticket wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 2:26 pm And if we are back to pre-pandemic, why are so many people still struggling?
GDP only measures the total value of the goods/services produced. It says nothing about what is beneath the hood.sockwithaticket wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 3:14 pmAnd this is why I don't understand economics. By what measure is the economy back to pre-pandemic levels if people other than bankers (with their relatively freshly uncapped bonuses) are real terms poorer?tc27 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 2:42 pmInflation and (ironically) stagnant wages.sockwithaticket wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 2:26 pm And if we are back to pre-pandemic, why are so many people still struggling?
It's impossible for a single number to distill all economic activity. A total waste of everyone's time. Even the guy who created GBP as a measurement thinks so.
It is fairly outstanding how outdated headline GDP as a number is in modern times as scope for comparison has improved. The latest revision has UK GDP tracking France since Q4 19, whilst France has had 500k fewer immigrants (majority of course working age adults). Strip out non-metropolitian France and the per capita view still leaves UK really wanting
Incidentally, for some portions related, a lot of this is a reversal of the 1.7% blue book adjustment last year... so the initial data was correct (headline, subject to further revision, differing factors, blah blah blah)Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 4:29 pm ONS keeps cocking up its initial data, then with a bit more time and more data has to substantially revise it. The figures are independent.
Moral of the story, never move something to Wales
GDP, at least in PPP, still a necessary simple high level tool? Who can do/make what/how much/etc, with what economic base? Waste is a very strong word.I like neeps wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 5:59 pmIt's impossible for a single number to distill all economic activity. A total waste of everyone's time. Even the guy who created GBP as a measurement thinks so.
There's been attempts to replace it, HDI is the most well known but HDI suffers from losing a lot of meaning when comparing highly developed nations. GDP pops up a lot in UK politics because on the nominal value the UK is ranked 6th, this sounds impressive until it's pointed out the US and China are multiples larger, to such an extent 6th may as well be 5th or 7th or 10th. GDP PPP per capita shows a different picture (UK is currently 29th), and gets closer to the productivity issue you're describing. But no one in the UK is going to use a metric that places the UK 29th, especially when it also places Ireland 1st.TheNatalShark wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 7:12 pmIt is fairly outstanding how outdated headline GDP as a number is in modern times as scope for comparison has improved. The latest revision has UK GDP tracking France since Q4 19, whilst France has had 500k fewer immigrants (majority of course working age adults). Strip out non-metropolitian France and the per capita view still leaves UK really wanting
Invariably any pre-2023 comparatives will be rubbish for a bit and a lot of learning and standardising to be done. Other countries still working through their interpretation of GDP and we may bounce around
From what I understand the UK was the outlier in the way it compiled and thus this was just the correction. Trade barriers certainly are a factor but we are not now performing noticeably worse in GDP terms than major EU economies so its not that clear cut.dpedin wrote: ↑Sat Sep 02, 2023 10:29 am Almost all the other European and G7 comparators re the G7 numbers are also revising their own numbers so expect everyone to move their initial assessment upwards as per the UK. These figures move around for some time as more data becomes available. Experts still expect the UK to be towards or at the bottom of the pile for GDP growth and the main reason being .... Brexit and the self imposed trade barriers.
All countries revise their GDP figures - here is paper on who and how much as compared to the UK. The UK does seem to be a bit more accurate but even then it makes international comparisons difficult in short term?tc27 wrote: ↑Sat Sep 02, 2023 12:25 pmFrom what I understand the UK was the outlier in the way it compiled and thus this was just the correction. Trade barriers certainly are a factor but we are not now performing noticeably worse in GDP terms than major EU economies so its not that clear cut.dpedin wrote: ↑Sat Sep 02, 2023 10:29 am Almost all the other European and G7 comparators re the G7 numbers are also revising their own numbers so expect everyone to move their initial assessment upwards as per the UK. These figures move around for some time as more data becomes available. Experts still expect the UK to be towards or at the bottom of the pile for GDP growth and the main reason being .... Brexit and the self imposed trade barriers.
Really we in Europe have fallen way behind the US and are now relatively poor in comparison. Working yfor a UK/US company really has opened my eyes. My US colleagues in the same approximate job role all have huge houses, at least one 'luxury' hobby (motorboats ETC) and loads of disposable income. The company also has to pay the health insurance costs as part of the employment package.
It's the opposite of a paradox, it's a fallacy ("the broken window fallacy"). A paradox is something that seems wrong but is actually true, a fallacy is something that seems true but is actually wrong. The broken window is about it seeming to be true that replacing the broken window helps the economy, but this actually being wrong. The guy who came up with it even singled out war costs as being harmful, my Russian tank example isn't a variant of the broken window, it's in the original 19th century example.
It'll be, interesting, to see how the impact of sanctions plays out in Russia over the next few years._Os_ wrote: ↑Sat Sep 02, 2023 1:01 pmIt's the opposite of a paradox, it's a fallacy ("the broken window fallacy"). A paradox is something that seems wrong but is actually true, a fallacy is something that seems true but is actually wrong. The broken window is about it seeming to be true that replacing the broken window helps the economy, but this actually being wrong. The guy who came up with it even singled out war costs as being harmful, my Russian tank example isn't a variant of the broken window, it's in the original 19th century example.
Russia has blown out their deficit, their debt to GDP is the highest since the mid-2000s, and their foreign exchange reserve is frozen or has a growing non-US$/non-Euro component (in both cases good luck to them using that to do anything). None of that will show up in GDP, 2022 was a good year for Russian GDP. I did say it was an extreme example, to help someone understand what GDP captures and what it doesn't.
The more I hear about this, the more it sounds like this is going to be an colossally expensive issue to remediate.sefton wrote: ↑Fri Sep 01, 2023 4:16 am What a shambles from the DFE, the issue around RAAC has been known about for years but capital investment has been cut to the bone so it has not been dealt with. I was on a DFE conference call back in March about the rebuilding programme they announced and there was an acknowledgment that this was as a major issue as any school that is in the programme but did not have RAAC in its estate was told they would be at the back of the queue. Yet with a couple of days before the start of the new academic year schools are told to shut buildings and make new arrangements, all within their existing budgets.
Well a curious mind might ask why exactly the building industry ceased using RAAC in the 1990s ?tabascoboy wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 12:34 pm So, if I read the limited news I have seen about this it only arose as a known issue in 2018, not before?
Although it would be expensive, no doubt a fudge and resisted by this current shitshamble of a Government, sounds like grounds for a Public Inquiry alrightfishfoodie wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 12:41 pmWell a curious mind might ask why exactly the building industry ceased using RAAC in the 1990s ?tabascoboy wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 12:34 pm So, if I read the limited news I have seen about this it only arose as a known issue in 2018, not before?
[Edit] And then note that RAAC was always reckoned to have a ~30 year lifespan
2011 -"Under the £55bn scheme introduced by Labour, every secondary school in England was to be either rebuilt or refurbished. More than 700 schools' building projects were cancelled when the scheme was scrapped in July [2011]"
That's exactly where it should end up, but you can expect the Tories to fight like hell against it.tabascoboy wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 12:50 pmAlthough it would be expensive, no doubt a fudge and resisted by this current shitshamble of a Government, sounds like grounds for a Public Inquiry alrightfishfoodie wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 12:41 pmWell a curious mind might ask why exactly the building industry ceased using RAAC in the 1990s ?tabascoboy wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 12:34 pm So, if I read the limited news I have seen about this it only arose as a known issue in 2018, not before?
[Edit] And then note that RAAC was always reckoned to have a ~30 year lifespan
[EDIT] and with hindsight of course this doesn't look good
2011 -"Under the £55bn scheme introduced by Labour, every secondary school in England was to be either rebuilt or refurbished. More than 700 schools' building projects were cancelled when the scheme was scrapped in July [2011]"
After first trying to contract the work to friends/relatives/donors companies....fishfoodie wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 1:27 pm
The asbestos is a real spanner in the works for any remediation, as it's removal is specialist operation, which is really disruptive, & not something you want to even try doing in a building that's is use. I doubt the UK has even close to enough of these specialists to deal with the massive task ahead, so which building gets done first will be a real battle, with every Minister & MP trying to get their school to the front of the queue.
It's also going to do wonders for the head boys pledge to cut NHS waiting lists, with this same shite in use in hospitals, & clinics, across the country.
https://archive.ph/96q4wScientists identified RAAC as a safety issue in the 1990s but the full danger became apparent in 2018 when a roof collapsed at Singlewell Primary in Gravesend, Kent — fortunately on a Saturday.
The National Audit Office estimated that 24,000 school buildings — 38 per cent — had exceeded their initial life span.
A government survey of schools was carried out over the past year to identify the presence of RAAC. At the start of summer, with 6,300 schools questioned, 572 with suspected RAAC were identified, with 8,600 yet to respond. More detailed investigations then found that 156 schools had confirmed RAAC, with about 60 of these at critical risk.
Not by chance, the mob had a significant interest in asbestos removal in the US east coast. It was just too attractive as a job you could charge the earth for, but then employ monkeys, & pay them peanuts for doing it badly & completely without the necessary safety measures, & then to put the tin hat on it, they'd dump the waste illegally, instead of paying the price for it's proper disposal in a licensed site.tabascoboy wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 1:35 pmAfter first trying to contract the work to friends/relatives/donors companies....fishfoodie wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 1:27 pm
The asbestos is a real spanner in the works for any remediation, as it's removal is specialist operation, which is really disruptive, & not something you want to even try doing in a building that's is use. I doubt the UK has even close to enough of these specialists to deal with the massive task ahead, so which building gets done first will be a real battle, with every Minister & MP trying to get their school to the front of the queue.
It's also going to do wonders for the head boys pledge to cut NHS waiting lists, with this same shite in use in hospitals, & clinics, across the country.
Killing that program looked bad at the time too as anyone in education told them. It's typical Tory 'price of everything, value of nothing' carry on. Yeah, 55 billion isn't a sum to be sniffed at, but the gradual replacement and refurbishment over years is less expensive both directly and indirectly than waiting 'til things hit a crisis point and turfing kids out 0f 100+ schools all in one go, then trying to find alternative provisions for them while desperately overdue work is conducted.tabascoboy wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 12:50 pmAlthough it would be expensive, no doubt a fudge and resisted by this current shitshamble of a Government, sounds like grounds for a Public Inquiry alrightfishfoodie wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 12:41 pmWell a curious mind might ask why exactly the building industry ceased using RAAC in the 1990s ?tabascoboy wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 12:34 pm So, if I read the limited news I have seen about this it only arose as a known issue in 2018, not before?
[Edit] And then note that RAAC was always reckoned to have a ~30 year lifespan
[EDIT] and with hindsight of course this doesn't look good
2011 -"Under the £55bn scheme introduced by Labour, every secondary school in England was to be either rebuilt or refurbished. More than 700 schools' building projects were cancelled when the scheme was scrapped in July [2011]"
My friend says hire a skip and put the asestos at the bottom and fill the skip uptabascoboy wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 2:04 pm I have an asbestos roof on my ancient garage, the cost for a domestic safe and licensed removal is astronomic considering ease of removal and the amount of material. I don't know how much unlawful dumping there is here, but council tips are pretty strict about how they will accept it.
Sounds legitC69 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 2:22 pmMy friend says hire a skip and put the asestos at the bottom and fill the skip uptabascoboy wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 2:04 pm I have an asbestos roof on my ancient garage, the cost for a domestic safe and licensed removal is astronomic considering ease of removal and the amount of material. I don't know how much unlawful dumping there is here, but council tips are pretty strict about how they will accept it.
It's not just the disposal, the removal can be dicey as well and you need the garage completely cleared, everything soaking wet and wearing the correct PPE. Saying that I got a quote for removal and disposal of £520, which I thought was reasonable.C69 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 2:22 pmMy friend says hire a skip and put the asestos at the bottom and fill the skip uptabascoboy wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 2:04 pm I have an asbestos roof on my ancient garage, the cost for a domestic safe and licensed removal is astronomic considering ease of removal and the amount of material. I don't know how much unlawful dumping there is here, but council tips are pretty strict about how they will accept it.
That's not a bad price, quote for mine was over £1000, so either they were taking the mick or the cost is higher in the "wealthy" SEBlackmac wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 3:05 pmIt's not just the disposal, the removal can be dicey as well and you need the garage completely cleared, everything soaking wet and wearing the correct PPE. Saying that I got a quote for removal and disposal of £520, which I thought was reasonable.C69 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 2:22 pmMy friend says hire a skip and put the asestos at the bottom and fill the skip uptabascoboy wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 2:04 pm I have an asbestos roof on my ancient garage, the cost for a domestic safe and licensed removal is astronomic considering ease of removal and the amount of material. I don't know how much unlawful dumping there is here, but council tips are pretty strict about how they will accept it.
I heard there was a twat in Oundle who recounts a tale removing asbestos wearing scuba diving kitC69 wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 2:22 pmMy friend says hire a skip and put the asestos at the bottom and fill the skip uptabascoboy wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 2:04 pm I have an asbestos roof on my ancient garage, the cost for a domestic safe and licensed removal is astronomic considering ease of removal and the amount of material. I don't know how much unlawful dumping there is here, but council tips are pretty strict about how they will accept it.
Having Cruella in the Cabinet, let alone in one of the great offices of state is grounds enough to send in a letter. It shows a breathtaking lack of judgement.Hal Jordan wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 4:56 pm Gillian Keegan, Secretary of State for Education, has maintained radio silence Thursday. Accountability!
Apparently a fair few letters have found their way to Brady as well over the ECHR.
Her latest wheeze is commissioning a report into how the Police have become politicised.fishfoodie wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 5:21 pmHaving Cruella in the Cabinet, let alone in one of the great offices of state is grounds enough to send in a letter. It shows a breathtaking lack of judgement.Hal Jordan wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 4:56 pm Gillian Keegan, Secretary of State for Education, has maintained radio silence Thursday. Accountability!
Apparently a fair few letters have found their way to Brady as well over the ECHR.
Christian fundamentalists frequently do.Hal Jordan wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 6:00 pmHer latest wheeze is commissioning a report into how the Police have become politicised.fishfoodie wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 5:21 pmHaving Cruella in the Cabinet, let alone in one of the great offices of state is grounds enough to send in a letter. It shows a breathtaking lack of judgement.Hal Jordan wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 4:56 pm Gillian Keegan, Secretary of State for Education, has maintained radio silence Thursday. Accountability!
Apparently a fair few letters have found their way to Brady as well over the ECHR.
And by politicised, we mean occasionally taking the knee, having a stand at Pride events etc.
She has a howling void where her soul should be.
https://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... in-schoolsHunt told the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg that he would not speculate on the potential cost of fixing the problem, but said: “We will spend what it takes to make sure children can go to school safely, yes.”
But hours later, Treasury sources briefed that any such funding will come from the Department for Education’s existing budget for buildings – and not from additional funds.
Whitehall sources said schools, academies and local authorities forced to bus their pupils to alternative sites will not be given extra cash either.
So just teach them at home using Zoom again. Cheap.fishfoodie wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 7:52 pmhttps://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... in-schoolsHunt told the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg that he would not speculate on the potential cost of fixing the problem, but said: “We will spend what it takes to make sure children can go to school safely, yes.”
But hours later, Treasury sources briefed that any such funding will come from the Department for Education’s existing budget for buildings – and not from additional funds.
Whitehall sources said schools, academies and local authorities forced to bus their pupils to alternative sites will not be given extra cash either.
Cunt by name, Cunt by nature !
Worth remembering private schools are charities including Eton.fishfoodie wrote: ↑Sun Sep 03, 2023 7:52 pmhttps://www.theguardian.com/education/2 ... in-schoolsHunt told the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg that he would not speculate on the potential cost of fixing the problem, but said: “We will spend what it takes to make sure children can go to school safely, yes.”
But hours later, Treasury sources briefed that any such funding will come from the Department for Education’s existing budget for buildings – and not from additional funds.
Whitehall sources said schools, academies and local authorities forced to bus their pupils to alternative sites will not be given extra cash either.
Cunt by name, Cunt by nature !
Government 'halved funding for rebuilding schools'
Jonathan Slater, who was the top civil servant at the Department for Education from May 2016 to August 2020, tells the Today programme a survey of schools was carried out about 10 years ago and a second was commissioned in his time. These showed the the scale of the rebuilding programme needed.
According to that, 300 to 400 schools needed to be repaired per year "because of the system the schools were built with was post-war concrete and it was only supposed to live for 30-40 years".
When they went to the Treasury, they got funding to rebuild 100 schools per year.
"It was frustrating when your priority was safety," he says. Slater says the education department saw the benefits of the program but "the challenge was to face the chancellor".
In 2021, they wanted to be realistic and asked the government to double the 100 schools to 200. "We know 300 to 400 needed, but the actual ask in 2021 was to double the 100 to 200. I thought we'd get it but the actual decision made in 2021 was to halve down from 100 a year to 50 year," he adds.
And he reminds the programme that the chancellor then was Rishi Sunak.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-66701626