NPR

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Thu Oct 12, 2023 5:18 pm

I like neeps wrote: ↑Thu Oct 12, 2023 1:09 pm

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Thu Oct 12, 2023 1:05 pm

This is also an advert for giving people longer sentences. Why do we keep trying to rehabilitate violent offenders?

Well you have to let them out eventually. So why not put in place a system where they come out less violent than they went in?

Propensity for violent crime falls off a cliff as people age. For the kind of criminals I’m referencing genuine rehabilitation is generally a pipe dream. The primary purpose of criminal justice is to remove people who commit criminal acts from those who don’t, everything else is secondary

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Thu Oct 12, 2023 7:17 pm

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Thu Oct 12, 2023 7:06 pm

sockwithaticket wrote: ↑Thu Oct 12, 2023 6:58 pm We might like to try it before dismissing it. Rehabilitation efforts in this country are a way off nations that do it fairly successfully like the Scandis.

I remember looking this up extensively before, the recidivism rates were consistently lower in countries with the more so-called "liberal" penal systems, where the process is more about rehabilitation rather than punishment

Rehabilitation sounds way more expensive.

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Thu Oct 12, 2023 7:17 pm

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Thu Oct 12, 2023 7:06 pm

sockwithaticket wrote: ↑Thu Oct 12, 2023 6:58 pm We might like to try it before dismissing it. Rehabilitation efforts in this country are a way off nations that do it fairly successfully like the Scandis.

I remember looking this up extensively before, the recidivism rates were consistently lower in countries with the more so-called "liberal" penal systems, where the process is more about rehabilitation rather than punishment

Rehabilitation sounds way more expensive.

Biffer wrote: ↑Fri Oct 13, 2023 7:19 am Justice systems are about a mix of retridution, reparation and rehabilitation. We make a choice as a society what mix we use for what crime. I feel our mix is rather off.

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Thu Oct 12, 2023 8:30 pm

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Thu Oct 12, 2023 7:17 pm

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Thu Oct 12, 2023 7:06 pm


I remember looking this up extensively before, the recidivism rates were consistently lower in countries with the more so-called "liberal" penal systems, where the process is more about rehabilitation rather than punishment

Rehabilitation sounds way more expensive.

It's far less expensive when you count the cost of re-offending and having to go through several terms in jail, the police costs cost of investigating the crimes and putting them through the court system on multiple occasions. In the case of violent crime there is the cost of treating victims for their injuries and dealing with the mental health problems of the victim.

Then there are "softer" costs like the increase for all of us of insurance

Overall rehabilitation is far cheaper, just like prevention is way cheaper than treatment for just about anything, plus there is the reciprocal benefit of the person becoming a tax paying member of the community.

dpedin wrote: ↑Fri Oct 13, 2023 9:43 am

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Thu Oct 12, 2023 8:30 pm

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Thu Oct 12, 2023 7:17 pm

Rehabilitation sounds way more expensive.

It's far less expensive when you count the cost of re-offending and having to go through several terms in jail, the police costs cost of investigating the crimes and putting them through the court system on multiple occasions. In the case of violent crime there is the cost of treating victims for their injuries and dealing with the mental health problems of the victim.

Then there are "softer" costs like the increase for all of us of insurance

Overall rehabilitation is far cheaper, just like prevention is way cheaper than treatment for just about anything, plus there is the reciprocal benefit of the person becoming a tax paying member of the community.

Definitely this! Think of it in quality terms - the cost of redoing things because of poor processes and bad quality issues is always far greater than just getting it right first time!

All we have is a system that warehouses offenders, gets them institutionally dependant, dehumanises them, destroys family connections, probably makes them drug dependant and inmates teach each other 'how to do crime better' next time. Even worse we then release them into a parole system that has been destroyed by the Tory fantasy of privatisation and what is left is unable to cope with the cases and the complexity. We are basically setting ourselves up to fail and to drive a slow but inexorable increase in the prison population that we cant house, cant staff and cant afford. Great long term planning!

tabascoboy wrote: ↑Fri Oct 13, 2023 10:10 am

Tory MP Peter Bone is facing a six week suspension from the House of Commons after an Independent Expert Panel found he had “committed many varied acts of bullying and one act of sexual misconduct” against a member of his staff in 2012 and 2013.

The IEP has recommended that Mr Bone is suspended from the Commons for six weeks.

If the sanction is agreed by MPs it would trigger the Recall of MPs Act 2015 which could then result in a by-election in his Wellingborough constituency.

Mr Bone said in a statement that “none of the misconduct allegations against me ever took place” and the claims are “false and untrue”.

Andrew Bridgen has demanded an apology from a fellow MP after he allegedly slapped him on the back of the head and called him a "b******".

SaintK wrote: ↑Tue Oct 17, 2023 9:07 am I'm surprised there wasn't a queue!!!

Andrew Bridgen has demanded an apology from a fellow MP after he allegedly slapped him on the back of the head and called him a "b******".

https://news.sky.com/story/andrew-bri ... 2985929

Conservative HQ is claiming the Tory vote share in two upcoming by-elections could halve to around 30%, based on telephone canvassing data over recent days.

Sky News has obtained a memo to Greg Hands, the Conservative Party chairman, from a senior official at the party HQ.

It says in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election, the latest internal polling suggests the party will get a vote share of 30%. This is half the 60% that Ms Dorries won for the Tories in 2019, with Labour on 22% and Lib Dems on 12%.

However, in this by-election the contest has turned into a three-horse-race and there is a path to a Tory victory even if its vote share drops to 30%. The Conservatives assert they are on course to lose.

The memo also says that in Tamworth, data collected over the past 10 days indicates a likely Conservative vote share in the region of 28% to 33%.

The Staffordshire seat is a straight fight between the Tories and Labour, and a drop on this scale would mean the Tories losing the seat. In 2019, Chris Pincher got 66% of the vote, with Labour on 24%.

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Tue Oct 17, 2023 2:37 pm https://news.sky.com/story/leaked-tory- ... s-12986125

Conservative HQ is claiming the Tory vote share in two upcoming by-elections could halve to around 30%, based on telephone canvassing data over recent days.

Sky News has obtained a memo to Greg Hands, the Conservative Party chairman, from a senior official at the party HQ.

It says in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election, the latest internal polling suggests the party will get a vote share of 30%. This is half the 60% that Ms Dorries won for the Tories in 2019, with Labour on 22% and Lib Dems on 12%.

However, in this by-election the contest has turned into a three-horse-race and there is a path to a Tory victory even if its vote share drops to 30%. The Conservatives assert they are on course to lose.

The memo also says that in Tamworth, data collected over the past 10 days indicates a likely Conservative vote share in the region of 28% to 33%.

The Staffordshire seat is a straight fight between the Tories and Labour, and a drop on this scale would mean the Tories losing the seat. In 2019, Chris Pincher got 66% of the vote, with Labour on 24%.

C69 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 17, 2023 3:22 pm

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Tue Oct 17, 2023 2:37 pm https://news.sky.com/story/leaked-tory- ... s-12986125

Conservative HQ is claiming the Tory vote share in two upcoming by-elections could halve to around 30%, based on telephone canvassing data over recent days.

Sky News has obtained a memo to Greg Hands, the Conservative Party chairman, from a senior official at the party HQ.

It says in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election, the latest internal polling suggests the party will get a vote share of 30%. This is half the 60% that Ms Dorries won for the Tories in 2019, with Labour on 22% and Lib Dems on 12%.

However, in this by-election the contest has turned into a three-horse-race and there is a path to a Tory victory even if its vote share drops to 30%. The Conservatives assert they are on course to lose.

The memo also says that in Tamworth, data collected over the past 10 days indicates a likely Conservative vote share in the region of 28% to 33%.

The Staffordshire seat is a straight fight between the Tories and Labour, and a drop on this scale would mean the Tories losing the seat. In 2019, Chris Pincher got 66% of the vote, with Labour on 24%.

I need suppose the Mid Bedfordshire election is interesting.
Not knowing if Labour or the LDs are both actively campaigning on the ground it's difficult to know what will happen.
I hope the nod and a wink happens across the country with Labour and the LDs not campaigning where the other party is likely to beat the Tories
I still think that the Reform Party may directly take at least 10% of the Tory vote across the board.
I see the newest polls have Labour on 45% and the Tories on 27.
If Labour and the LDs play their cards right and focus on their targets and ignore the others then the Tories could be decimated.

SaintK wrote: ↑Tue Oct 17, 2023 3:59 pm

C69 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 17, 2023 3:22 pm

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Tue Oct 17, 2023 2:37 pm https://news.sky.com/story/leaked-tory- ... s-12986125

I need suppose the Mid Bedfordshire election is interesting.
Not knowing if Labour or the LDs are both actively campaigning on the ground it's difficult to know what will happen.
I hope the nod and a wink happens across the country with Labour and the LDs not campaigning where the other party is likely to beat the Tories
I still think that the Reform Party may directly take at least 10% of the Tory vote across the board.
I see the newest polls have Labour on 45% and the Tories on 27.
If Labour and the LDs play their cards right and focus on their targets and ignore the others then the Tories could be decimated.

Both are going balls out for it, which of course could let the Tories sneak in!
The Tory candidate is the local Police and Crime Commissioner who is as incompetent as Dorries was.
Going to be a close run thing!

C69 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 17, 2023 6:37 pm I actually think that a Tory win would be the best thing for Labour and the LDs. it will make the leaders realise that they are fucked if they take votes off each other and let the Tories in.
It will also make the Tories think they are not doing so bad.
As many genuinely think. Tactical voting abd a ruimp of Tories voting Reform would be nice.

sturginho wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 9:56 am The Tory candidate in Tamworth seems like a pleasant sort of chap

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ss-parents

tabascoboy wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 10:37 am

sturginho wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 9:56 am The Tory candidate in Tamworth seems like a pleasant sort of chap

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ss-parents

Seems to meet the criteria for the new "edgy" breed of Tory

The government’s chief scientific adviser sent a secret message calling Rishi Sunak “Dr Death the chancellor” during a meeting attended by both in the Covid crisis, the official inquiry into the pandemic has been told.

Prof Dame Angela McLean, who at the time was the chief scientific adviser to the Ministry of Defence, made the comment in a WhatsApp message to another leading scientist in apparent reference to Sunak’s “eat out to help out” scheme that ran during the summer of 2020.

John Edmunds, a professor of infectious disease modelling who was the recipient of McLean’s messages, told the inquiry that he remained angry at Sunak’s scheme, which incentivised people to eat at restaurants and cafes, saying it sent the wrong message to the public.

On 20 September, Vallance asked Edmunds to join a meeting at which Boris Johnson and Sunak were to hear views from scientists – “mainly from the ‘let it rip’ brigade”, Vallance told Edmunds in the email.

McLean and Edmunds exchanged messages as the meeting heard from anti-lockdown voices, with McLean making reference to “Dr Death the chancellor”. Asked if this was a reference to “eat out to help out”, Edmunds replied: “It’s so long ago I don’t know. But it could well be.”

At another point, McLean asked: “Who is this fuckwit?” to which Edmunds replied: “Every statistic is wrong.”

Asked who this referred to, Edmunds told the inquiry: “I’m pretty sure it’s the next witness.” Due to give evidence after him was Carl Heneghan, a professor of evidence-based medicine at Oxford University who was a critic of several lockdown-related measures.

fishfoodie wrote: ↑Thu Oct 19, 2023 7:33 pm I'm surprised how little comments on here about the Covid inquiry ?

I don't know if it's because the cynics on here called all the shit that went on contemporaneously, or if it's being displaced by other stuff, or everyone just wants to forget about covid, but it's delivered some real gems, which are burying any hopes of the Bumblecunt of ever being a player again.

Today we had this lovely little nugget, of how your now PM acted.

The government’s chief scientific adviser sent a secret message calling Rishi Sunak “Dr Death the chancellor” during a meeting attended by both in the Covid crisis, the official inquiry into the pandemic has been told.

Prof Dame Angela McLean, who at the time was the chief scientific adviser to the Ministry of Defence, made the comment in a WhatsApp message to another leading scientist in apparent reference to Sunak’s “eat out to help out” scheme that ran during the summer of 2020.

John Edmunds, a professor of infectious disease modelling who was the recipient of McLean’s messages, told the inquiry that he remained angry at Sunak’s scheme, which incentivised people to eat at restaurants and cafes, saying it sent the wrong message to the public.

On 20 September, Vallance asked Edmunds to join a meeting at which Boris Johnson and Sunak were to hear views from scientists – “mainly from the ‘let it rip’ brigade”, Vallance told Edmunds in the email.

McLean and Edmunds exchanged messages as the meeting heard from anti-lockdown voices, with McLean making reference to “Dr Death the chancellor”. Asked if this was a reference to “eat out to help out”, Edmunds replied: “It’s so long ago I don’t know. But it could well be.”

At another point, McLean asked: “Who is this fuckwit?” to which Edmunds replied: “Every statistic is wrong.”

Asked who this referred to, Edmunds told the inquiry: “I’m pretty sure it’s the next witness.” Due to give evidence after him was Carl Heneghan, a professor of evidence-based medicine at Oxford University who was a critic of several lockdown-related measures.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... uiry-hears



To be fair, you can see why the inquiry felt the need to clarify, exactly who was the fuckwit at that time, because the entire Government was populated by fuckwit, supported by layers of other fuckwits acting as advisors.

Rhubarb & Custard wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 1:18 pm

tabascoboy wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 10:37 am

sturginho wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 9:56 am The Tory candidate in Tamworth seems like a pleasant sort of chap

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... ss-parents

Seems to meet the criteria for the new "edgy" breed of Tory

Might not be a bad fit for Tamworth. I've got family in Tamworth and whilst I suspect they vote Tory they might think they're a bit lefty/liberal. Across the families they're either police (by marriage), army, doctors (by marriage) or retired school teachers. They would be if not out and out racist at minimum pro-British, and really that's pro white (but not gypsy) British, homophobic (at least two of them quit the National Trust after a story some years back of NT staff being asked to wear Rainbow Badges), the police lads are Masons, the blokes are for sure misogynists, really they'd love this sort of messaging. For some reason we'll be coming up on another Christmas where a lot of the wider family don't actually meet up

If the Tories lose in Tamworth it's going to take a special effort on their part

fishfoodie wrote: ↑Thu Oct 19, 2023 7:33 pm I'm surprised how little comments on here about the Covid inquiry ?

I don't know if it's because the cynics on here called all the shit that went on contemporaneously, or if it's being displaced by other stuff, or everyone just wants to forget about covid, but it's delivered some real gems, which are burying any hopes of the Bumblecunt of ever being a player again.

sockwithaticket wrote: ↑Thu Oct 19, 2023 8:33 pm

Rhubarb & Custard wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 1:18 pm

tabascoboy wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 10:37 am

Seems to meet the criteria for the new "edgy" breed of Tory

Might not be a bad fit for Tamworth. I've got family in Tamworth and whilst I suspect they vote Tory they might think they're a bit lefty/liberal. Across the families they're either police (by marriage), army, doctors (by marriage) or retired school teachers. They would be if not out and out racist at minimum pro-British, and really that's pro white (but not gypsy) British, homophobic (at least two of them quit the National Trust after a story some years back of NT staff being asked to wear Rainbow Badges), the police lads are Masons, the blokes are for sure misogynists, really they'd love this sort of messaging. For some reason we'll be coming up on another Christmas where a lot of the wider family don't actually meet up

If the Tories lose in Tamworth it's going to take a special effort on their part

Possibly a fairly unusual constituency in that it'll have UKIP, Reform and Britain First candidates alongside the Tory.

I saw some vox pops with constituents the other day and while I appreciate that those available and willing to talk to the camera during the working day are often not a particularly representative cross-section of society, this lot seemed considerably more rabid and stupid than their equivalents from other constituencies.

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Thu Oct 19, 2023 9:03 pm

sockwithaticket wrote: ↑Thu Oct 19, 2023 8:33 pm

Rhubarb & Custard wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 1:18 pm

Might not be a bad fit for Tamworth. I've got family in Tamworth and whilst I suspect they vote Tory they might think they're a bit lefty/liberal. Across the families they're either police (by marriage), army, doctors (by marriage) or retired school teachers. They would be if not out and out racist at minimum pro-British, and really that's pro white (but not gypsy) British, homophobic (at least two of them quit the National Trust after a story some years back of NT staff being asked to wear Rainbow Badges), the police lads are Masons, the blokes are for sure misogynists, really they'd love this sort of messaging. For some reason we'll be coming up on another Christmas where a lot of the wider family don't actually meet up

If the Tories lose in Tamworth it's going to take a special effort on their part

Possibly a fairly unusual constituency in that it'll have UKIP, Reform and Britain First candidates alongside the Tory.

I saw some vox pops with constituents the other day and while I appreciate that those available and willing to talk to the camera during the working day are often not a particularly representative cross-section of society, this lot seemed considerably more rabid and stupid than their equivalents from other constituencies.

How long will that be unusual?

The scary scenario is that these extremist rights wing parties replace the Tories and become a viable election choice - that may sound alarmist until one looks at the lurch the Tory party has taken in the last dozen years since it came into power.

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Thu Oct 19, 2023 9:03 pm

sockwithaticket wrote: ↑Thu Oct 19, 2023 8:33 pm

Rhubarb & Custard wrote: ↑Wed Oct 18, 2023 1:18 pm

Might not be a bad fit for Tamworth. I've got family in Tamworth and whilst I suspect they vote Tory they might think they're a bit lefty/liberal. Across the families they're either police (by marriage), army, doctors (by marriage) or retired school teachers. They would be if not out and out racist at minimum pro-British, and really that's pro white (but not gypsy) British, homophobic (at least two of them quit the National Trust after a story some years back of NT staff being asked to wear Rainbow Badges), the police lads are Masons, the blokes are for sure misogynists, really they'd love this sort of messaging. For some reason we'll be coming up on another Christmas where a lot of the wider family don't actually meet up

If the Tories lose in Tamworth it's going to take a special effort on their part

Possibly a fairly unusual constituency in that it'll have UKIP, Reform and Britain First candidates alongside the Tory.

I saw some vox pops with constituents the other day and while I appreciate that those available and willing to talk to the camera during the working day are often not a particularly representative cross-section of society, this lot seemed considerably more rabid and stupid than their equivalents from other constituencies.

How long will that be unusual?

The scary scenario is that these extremist rights wing parties replace the Tories and become a viable election choice - that may sound alarmist until one looks at the lurch the Tory party has taken in the last dozen years since it came into power.

fishfoodie wrote: ↑Thu Oct 19, 2023 9:23 pm

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Thu Oct 19, 2023 9:03 pm

sockwithaticket wrote: ↑Thu Oct 19, 2023 8:33 pm

Possibly a fairly unusual constituency in that it'll have UKIP, Reform and Britain First candidates alongside the Tory.

I saw some vox pops with constituents the other day and while I appreciate that those available and willing to talk to the camera during the working day are often not a particularly representative cross-section of society, this lot seemed considerably more rabid and stupid than their equivalents from other constituencies.

How long will that be unusual?

The scary scenario is that these extremist rights wing parties replace the Tories and become a viable election choice - that may sound alarmist until one looks at the lurch the Tory party has taken in the last dozen years since it came into power.

while the UK has FPTP voting, the fringe nutters will only be an inconvenience to the bigger parties; if you change to PR, the game will change completely

sockwithaticket wrote: ↑Thu Oct 19, 2023 9:35 pm The example of Brexit and UKIP is that the Tory party brings the nutters into the fold or steals their turf. I would imagine that's why Suella is making such horrific speeches.

Now the hope would be that their current lurch ever rightward will keep them unelectable because it's too much even for most dyed in the wool Tories. The fear is that we've actually got far more people in this country who are at the least comfortable with far, far right politics than previously thought.

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Thu Oct 19, 2023 9:32 pm

fishfoodie wrote: ↑Thu Oct 19, 2023 9:23 pm

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Thu Oct 19, 2023 9:03 pm


How long will that be unusual?

The scary scenario is that these extremist rights wing parties replace the Tories and become a viable election choice - that may sound alarmist until one looks at the lurch the Tory party has taken in the last dozen years since it came into power.

while the UK has FPTP voting, the fringe nutters will only be an inconvenience to the bigger parties; if you change to PR, the game will change completely

The fringe nutters drove Brexit and led to Farage being a major player in UK politics, and Truss, Braverman and Johnson etc holding the senior offices.

We are not protected by the FPTP voting system at all, in my view.

Summary

Labour has overturned huge Conservative majorities to win Thursday's two by-elections in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth

Party leader Sir Keir Starmer said the results showed "people overwhelmingly want change"

Labour emerged victorious in Mid Bedfordshire - Nadine Dorries' seat until she quit as an MP - where the Tories were defending a majority of more than 24,000
The Conservatives were also defeated in Tamworth, where Labour overturned a majority of more than 19,000

The swing from the Conservatives to Labour in Tamworth was 23.9% and in Mid Bedfordshire 20.5%

tabascoboy wrote: ↑Fri Oct 20, 2023 6:46 am That's two pretty massive results, they will still have too many rock solid "Tory till I die" seats but there will be a very large number of very nervous sitting Tory MPs this morning. Just hope it doesn't force them to get their shit together and that they continue this descent