NPR

JFK in '60 was the last President to lose Ohio but win the Presidency.

Hugo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:37 am

JPNZ wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:18 am The bookies have made their pick

Vegas odds yesterday Biden $1.55 - Trump $2.45

Latest vegas odds = Biden $4.00 - Trump = $1.22

Trump will take Florida, Texas and Georgia, is leading in swing states Wis, Mich, Ohio & Pen

Trump is also leading the popular vote by 1.5 million or so

Not being a gambling man - out of curiosity what do bookies base their odds on when it comes to betting on elections? Is it just recent polling because it's not like a sporting event where you can measure both sides strengths and weaknesses relative to one another and look at recent form etc.

US presidential elections are a two horse race that seems like a coin toss so how come the odds don't reflect that?

The flow of betting at this point (mostly), you don't want to be actuarially risky: as more coin flows on one direction, hedge by narrowing odds. They will also have something monitoring the polls but even with their post-strat MRP polls, they're still looking totally wrong. Psephology is (and has) always been poorly conceived linear models that very rarely hold in reality: the Georgian and Florida results proving the most embarrassing indictment of that (so far). As the model methodologies are state secrets, we'll never truly know how they're estimating their coefficients but psephology is sitting just above epidemiology and just below macro economics in the pantheon of bad modelling.

so 209/118 in favour of biden right now but trump will take florida/georgia texas, penn and ohio a.. thats 121 more ECV's coming his way so possibly 209/239 for trump in the next 1 hour

Is Biden in big trouble, or are we seeing an early "red mirage"?

Caley_Red wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:59 am

Hugo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:37 am

JPNZ wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:18 am The bookies have made their pick

Vegas odds yesterday Biden $1.55 - Trump $2.45

Latest vegas odds = Biden $4.00 - Trump = $1.22

Trump will take Florida, Texas and Georgia, is leading in swing states Wis, Mich, Ohio & Pen

Trump is also leading the popular vote by 1.5 million or so

Not being a gambling man - out of curiosity what do bookies base their odds on when it comes to betting on elections? Is it just recent polling because it's not like a sporting event where you can measure both sides strengths and weaknesses relative to one another and look at recent form etc.

US presidential elections are a two horse race that seems like a coin toss so how come the odds don't reflect that?

The flow of betting at this point (mostly), you don't want to be actuarially risky: as more coin flows on one direction, hedge by narrowing odds. They will also have something monitoring the polls but even with their post-strat MRP polls, they're still looking totally wrong. Psephology is (and has) always been poorly conceived linear models that very rarely hold in reality: the Georgian and Florida results proving the most embarrassing indictment of that (so far). As the model methodologies are state secrets, we'll never truly know how they're estimating their coefficients but psephology is sitting just above epidemiology and just below macro economics in the pantheon of bad modelling.

So (if I am understanding this right) its all about where the money is and bookies alter the odds to cover potential losses and to try entice punters to bet the other option? Do they use AI to figure this out? I always wondered how the information on where money is waged is shared.

Biden has done better than Hilary.

But it looks like Trump.

At a guess EC 295 - 245

Its a crazy world

Gumboot wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:30 am Is Biden in big trouble, or are we seeing an early "red mirage"?

Trump has a decent lead in Michigan and PA but they have only 50% of votes reported. Seems like Trump has done well in swing states, far exceeding the expectations of pollsters/pundits.

Hugo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:32 am

Caley_Red wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:59 am

Hugo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:37 am

Not being a gambling man - out of curiosity what do bookies base their odds on when it comes to betting on elections? Is it just recent polling because it's not like a sporting event where you can measure both sides strengths and weaknesses relative to one another and look at recent form etc.

US presidential elections are a two horse race that seems like a coin toss so how come the odds don't reflect that?

The flow of betting at this point (mostly), you don't want to be actuarially risky: as more coin flows on one direction, hedge by narrowing odds. They will also have something monitoring the polls but even with their post-strat MRP polls, they're still looking totally wrong. Psephology is (and has) always been poorly conceived linear models that very rarely hold in reality: the Georgian and Florida results proving the most embarrassing indictment of that (so far). As the model methodologies are state secrets, we'll never truly know how they're estimating their coefficients but psephology is sitting just above epidemiology and just below macro economics in the pantheon of bad modelling.

So (if I am understanding this right) its all about where the money is and bookies alter the odds to cover potential losses and to try entice punters to bet the other option? Do they use AI to figure this out? I always wondered how the information on where money is waged is shared.

Can't be sure precisely what model they use but a common example is an MLE logistic regression (kind of AI) where you bucket outcomes by log-odds and make a cut somewhere e.g. a given outcome will produce 2:1 likelihood of an event happening and you price accordingly. There will be another layer on top of that because they will drift stuff based on historical betting and projected margins. An example of that would be that Man Utd (historically) might always be slightly mispriced as they could rely on tons of people backing them irrespective so could offer less generous than pure model outcome (and maintain margin).

Which ever way you cut it and however the dice finally land you have to admit Trump's an extraordinary political force.

Gumboot wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:30 am Is Biden in big trouble, or are we seeing an early "red mirage"?

biden is fucked, best he can do now is 242 so trump to win it when he wins texas, florida and georgia.

Joe to release a statement at 0530 UK time

Hugo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:35 am

Gumboot wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:30 am Is Biden in big trouble, or are we seeing an early "red mirage"?

Trump has a decent lead in Michigan and PA but they have only 50% of votes reported. Seems like Trump has done well in swing states, far exceeding the expectations of pollsters/pundits.

I just switched on CNN and they all look a bit despondent.

Not quite the anti-Trump blue wave they were hoping for.

If Biden does eventually prevail it will probably be close enough to make sure it goes to the SCOTUS for adjudication.

frodder wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:25 am Joe to release a statement at 0530 UK time

Conceding defeat?

Flockwitt wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:16 am Which ever way you cut it and however the dice finally land you have to admit Trump's an extraordinary political force.

Even his most ferocious detractors would have to concede that.

Rinkals wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:26 am

frodder wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:25 am Joe to release a statement at 0530 UK time

Conceding defeat?

Nope, he's feeling really good about things and predicting he'll sweep the 3 crucial rust belt states.

Biden has no fluidity when he talks. Its honestly painful to watch him stumble through a short address struggling to find words.

Hugo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:46 am Biden has no fluidity when he talks. Its honestly painful to watch him stumble through a short address struggling to find words.

have u heard the other guy speak?

stemoc wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:52 am

Hugo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:46 am Biden has no fluidity when he talks. Its honestly painful to watch him stumble through a short address struggling to find words.

have u heard the other guy speak?

Trump has gusto, that speech by Biden was feeble.

Hugo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:55 am

stemoc wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:52 am

Hugo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:46 am Biden has no fluidity when he talks. Its honestly painful to watch him stumble through a short address struggling to find words.

have u heard the other guy speak?

Trump has gusto, that speech by Biden was feeble.

Meh, all feckless sideshow barkers have gusto.

Well this is a total fucking disaster

Flockwitt wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:16 am Which ever way you cut it and however the dice finally land you have to admit Trump's an extraordinary political force.

He's tapping into a market that no one else understands. Astonishing.

Gumboot wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:02 am

Hugo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:55 am

stemoc wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:52 am

have u heard the other guy speak?

Trump has gusto, that speech by Biden was feeble.

Meh, all feckless sideshow barkers have gusto.

And he is the most feckless sideshow barker the world has ever seen. A failure of a human being who barked his way into the WH

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:09 am

Flockwitt wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:16 am Which ever way you cut it and however the dice finally land you have to admit Trump's an extraordinary political force.

He's tapping into a market that no one else understands. Astonishing.

It's a sad indictment of America's polarised society. This rift could last decades and do untold damage, regardless of who wins.

Kiwias wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:09 am

Gumboot wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:02 am

Hugo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:55 am

Trump has gusto, that speech by Biden was feeble.

Meh, all feckless sideshow barkers have gusto.

And he is the most feckless sideshow barker the world has ever seen. A failure of a human being who barked his way into the WH

Damn straight.

Hugo wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 2:55 pm

Thor Sedan wrote: ↑Sun Nov 01, 2020 2:36 pm And here come the pollsters backtracking.

Apparently a number of polls are now showing trump with significant leads in battleground states. In some cases 8 to 10 point swings.

I think it is fair to say that the US poll folk are going to need to look for new jobs at the end of this election.

The trouble with polling is that many people don't admit to voting for Trump, the secret Trump voter effect.

NYT went round a suburban neighbourhood in Charlotte in the summer and canvassed residents, many were like "I'm voting for Trump but shhhh don't tell anybody I don't want the mob coming after me". The fear of backlash from outing yourself as a Trump voter is real so I just don't know if polling data is going to be accurate.

I found the NYT article that I referred to when Thor was talking about inaccuracies in the polling the other day:

MOORESVILLE, N.C. — It wasn’t the most obvious spot for a flag that people usually buy to make a big statement. But there it was, peeking out from the inside wall of a garage, the white “Trump 2020” lettering just visible from the street in this suburban Charlotte neighborhood.

From the front porch, Tiffany Blythe, a stay-at-home mom, said that she and many of the people she knows would be voting for Donald Trump in November — but that many of them were nervous talking about it. And that hesitation is why Ms. Blythe doesn’t trust the polls that are now forecasting losses this fall for Mr. Trump and other Republicans in North Carolina and beyond.

“I’m not buying it,” Ms. Blythe said. “There are a lot of silent voters, and more will come out before the election. I think a lot of states are turning red from blue, but you don’t hear about that in the media.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/16/us/p ... polls.html

Hugo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:35 am

Gumboot wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:30 am Is Biden in big trouble, or are we seeing an early "red mirage"?

Trump has a decent lead in Michigan and PA but they have only 50% of votes reported. Seems like Trump has done well in swing states, far exceeding the expectations of pollsters/pundits.

Nate SIlver fucked it up AGAIN!

Flockwitt wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:16 am Which ever way you cut it and however the dice finally land you have to admit Trump's an extraordinary political force.

I think it says more about people in the 'modern age', especially in the US, than Trump. Even if he loses, not something I want to call at this stage, its a sad indictment on the imperium that holds forth on most things in modern western world.

Gumboot wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:02 am

Hugo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:55 am

stemoc wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:52 am

have u heard the other guy speak?

Trump has gusto, that speech by Biden was feeble.

Meh, all feckless sideshow barkers have gusto.

I point you to my previous post.

FFS, where the fucking hell is the nodding emoji?

Fuck you America.

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:09 am

Flockwitt wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:16 am Which ever way you cut it and however the dice finally land you have to admit Trump's an extraordinary political force.

He's tapping into a market that no one else understands. Astonishing.

People understand it alright, they just don't want to go there for obvious reasons.

Most people have morals and at least a smidgeon of decorum. Making it out to be some sort of voodoo science is, well, retarded.....

America

Wasn’t it predicted that Trump would look strong early on but Biden would come back as postal votes were counted?

Is that not what we are seeing?

eldanielfire wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:28 am

Hugo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:35 am

Gumboot wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:30 am Is Biden in big trouble, or are we seeing an early "red mirage"?

Trump has a decent lead in Michigan and PA but they have only 50% of votes reported. Seems like Trump has done well in swing states, far exceeding the expectations of pollsters/pundits.

Nate SIlver fucked it up AGAIN!

The climate is not conducive to accurate polling because people are afraid, with some justification, to admit to voting for Trump.

Cahaly: I believe it was prevalent. In 2016, the worst being said about Trump voters is that they were “deplorable.” 2020 is a whole different ballgame. It is worse this time—significantly worse. This year had more things where you can get punished for expressing an opinion outside the mainstream than almost any year I can think of in modern history.

I’m finding that people are very hesitant [to share their preference for Trump], because now it’s not just being called “deplorable.” It’s people getting beat up for wearing the wrong hat, people getting harassed for having a sticker on their car. People just do not want to say anything.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... 016-433619

Ted. wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:36 am

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:09 am

Flockwitt wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:16 am Which ever way you cut it and however the dice finally land you have to admit Trump's an extraordinary political force.

He's tapping into a market that no one else understands. Astonishing.

People understand it alright, they just don't want to go there for obvious reasons.

Most people have morals and at least a smidgeon of decorum. Making it out to be some sort of voodoo science is, well, retarded.....

Sen and his ilk would have us believe tehre is some deep layer of philosophical meaning behind Trump's victory in 2016. I still call bollocks.

Slick wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:42 am Wasn’t it predicted that Trump would look strong early on but Biden would come back as postal votes were counted?

Is that not what we are seeing?

The red mirage?

I think even taking that possibility into account, it's still much tighter than most punters predicted. And in such a litigious society as the States, tighter means messier.

Slick wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:42 am Wasn’t it predicted that Trump would look strong early on but Biden would come back as postal votes were counted?

Is that not what we are seeing?

Not really. It is all over the place. Trump cleaned up in Florida. Tripled his previous winning margin when many polls had Biden squeaking the state.

Kiwias wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:48 am

Ted. wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:36 am

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:09 am

He's tapping into a market that no one else understands. Astonishing.

People understand it alright, they just don't want to go there for obvious reasons.

Most people have morals and at least a smidgeon of decorum. Making it out to be some sort of voodoo science is, well, retarded.....

Sen and his ilk would have us believe tehre is some deep layer of philosophical meaning behind Trump's victory in 2016. I still call bollocks.

Not going to say it's the whole cocktail but the blend of deindustrialization, outsourcing, 'identity politics' and a sense of being taken for granted has evidently been a huge contributory factor. It's the same in the UK, Italy, France and other places where the main centre-left parties have collapsed recently; that coalition of voters who sued to underpin their base, working class people, have abandoned them.

Whether there's a deep philosophy around the movement is up for the debate but the circumstances contributing to it are pretty undeniable, in my view. However, result isn't over by a long way but I expect the demography to confirm that white working class men have pretty much abandoned the Dems and the likes of the so-called 'squad' are unlikely to be winning back those votes soon.

Slick wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:42 am Wasn’t it predicted that Trump would look strong early on but Biden would come back as postal votes were counted?

Is that not what we are seeing?

Looks more like they've doubled down, people just don't like to admit they were wrong

Caley_Red wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:56 am

Kiwias wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:48 am

Ted. wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:36 am

People understand it alright, they just don't want to go there for obvious reasons.

Most people have morals and at least a smidgeon of decorum. Making it out to be some sort of voodoo science is, well, retarded.....

Sen and his ilk would have us believe tehre is some deep layer of philosophical meaning behind Trump's victory in 2016. I still call bollocks.

Not going to say it's the whole cocktail but the blend of deindustrialization, outsourcing, 'identity politics' and a sense of being taken for granted has evidently been a huge contributory factor. It's the same in the UK, Italy, France and other places where the main central left parties have collapsed recently; that coalition of voters who sued to underpin their base: working class people have abandoned them.

Whether there's a deep philosophy around that is up for the debate but the circumstances contributing to it are pretty undeniable in my view. However, result isn't over by a long way but I expect the demography to confirm that white working class men have pretty much abandoned the Dems and the likes of the so-called 'squad' are unlikely to be winning back those votes soon.

That applies far more to 2016 than 2020. Now people have had four years to see Trump's record in resolving those issues. By most yardsticks, the record is not glittering yet he is still well in the fight to be re-elected.