NPR

Kiwias wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:09 am

Caley_Red wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:56 am

Kiwias wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:48 am

Sen and his ilk would have us believe tehre is some deep layer of philosophical meaning behind Trump's victory in 2016. I still call bollocks.

Not going to say it's the whole cocktail but the blend of deindustrialization, outsourcing, 'identity politics' and a sense of being taken for granted has evidently been a huge contributory factor. It's the same in the UK, Italy, France and other places where the main central left parties have collapsed recently; that coalition of voters who sued to underpin their base: working class people have abandoned them.

Whether there's a deep philosophy around that is up for the debate but the circumstances contributing to it are pretty undeniable in my view. However, result isn't over by a long way but I expect the demography to confirm that white working class men have pretty much abandoned the Dems and the likes of the so-called 'squad' are unlikely to be winning back those votes soon.

That applies far more to 2016 than 2020. Now people have had four years to see Trump's record in resolving those issues. By most yardsticks, the record is not glittering yet he is still well in the fight to be re-elected.

tc27 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:14 am Pollsters covered themselves in glory again I see.

Caley_Red wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:13 am

Kiwias wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:09 am

Caley_Red wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:56 am

Not going to say it's the whole cocktail but the blend of deindustrialization, outsourcing, 'identity politics' and a sense of being taken for granted has evidently been a huge contributory factor. It's the same in the UK, Italy, France and other places where the main central left parties have collapsed recently; that coalition of voters who sued to underpin their base: working class people have abandoned them.

Whether there's a deep philosophy around that is up for the debate but the circumstances contributing to it are pretty undeniable in my view. However, result isn't over by a long way but I expect the demography to confirm that white working class men have pretty much abandoned the Dems and the likes of the so-called 'squad' are unlikely to be winning back those votes soon.

That applies far more to 2016 than 2020. Now people have had four years to see Trump's record in resolving those issues. By most yardsticks, the record is not glittering yet he is still well in the fight to be re-elected.

Those issues haven't gone away but Trump's stance on trade will have played well and he is decisively anti-identity politics. Look at Obama in '12, hadn't brought much of his initial campaign's 'hope' message but people fancied giving him another 4 to see if he could do something, I think people are doing the same here.

Hugo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:17 am

Caley_Red wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:13 am

Kiwias wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:09 am

That applies far more to 2016 than 2020. Now people have had four years to see Trump's record in resolving those issues. By most yardsticks, the record is not glittering yet he is still well in the fight to be re-elected.

Those issues haven't gone away but Trump's stance on trade will have played well and he is decisively anti-identity politics. Look at Obama in '12, hadn't brought much of his initial campaign's 'hope' message but people fancied giving him another 4 to see if he could do something, I think people are doing the same here.

Agreed and look at the alternative - a dinosaur who has been in Washington over 40 years.

Caley_Red wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:13 am

Kiwias wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:09 am

Caley_Red wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:56 am

Not going to say it's the whole cocktail but the blend of deindustrialization, outsourcing, 'identity politics' and a sense of being taken for granted has evidently been a huge contributory factor. It's the same in the UK, Italy, France and other places where the main central left parties have collapsed recently; that coalition of voters who sued to underpin their base: working class people have abandoned them.

Whether there's a deep philosophy around that is up for the debate but the circumstances contributing to it are pretty undeniable in my view. However, result isn't over by a long way but I expect the demography to confirm that white working class men have pretty much abandoned the Dems and the likes of the so-called 'squad' are unlikely to be winning back those votes soon.

That applies far more to 2016 than 2020. Now people have had four years to see Trump's record in resolving those issues. By most yardsticks, the record is not glittering yet he is still well in the fight to be re-elected.

Those issues haven't gone away but Trump's stance on trade will have played well and he is decisively anti-identity politics. Look at Obama in '12, hadn't brought much of his initial campaign's 'hope' message but people fancied giving him another 4 to see if he could do something, I think people are doing the same here.

sturginho wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:30 am How did Kanye's election bid go?

Kiwias wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:32 am

sturginho wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:30 am How did Kanye's election bid go?

It went west.

Caley_Red wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:21 am

Hugo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:17 am

Caley_Red wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:13 am

Those issues haven't gone away but Trump's stance on trade will have played well and he is decisively anti-identity politics. Look at Obama in '12, hadn't brought much of his initial campaign's 'hope' message but people fancied giving him another 4 to see if he could do something, I think people are doing the same here.

Agreed and look at the alternative - a dinosaur who has been in Washington over 40 years.

And (rightly or wrongly) looked at as a bit of a trojan horse candidate.

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:56 am Does look like a slim lead for Biden, Trump tweets showing a bit of panic.

tc27 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:42 am Agree it looks like Biden is stll the favourite.

Trump claiming a stolen election gives him a narrative he can use to explaon his defeat.

tc27 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:27 am Im guessing most of us are not US citizens so I wonder if we are actually better off with Biden?

Trump is so unpredictable I think the Wests geopolitical rivals are more cautious with him in the WH. He has also given the freeloading NATO nations a well needed poke.

sturginho wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:58 am

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:56 am Does look like a slim lead for Biden, Trump tweets showing a bit of panic.

Where are you seeing this?

Northern Lights wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:15 am

tc27 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:27 am Im guessing most of us are not US citizens so I wonder if we are actually better off with Biden?

Trump is so unpredictable I think the Wests geopolitical rivals are more cautious with him in the WH. He has also given the freeloading NATO nations a well needed poke.

Yeah, as much as i dislike the blundering gobshite, Trump is arguably likely to be a better friend to the UK than Biden, especially post-Brexit.

The argument on whether Brexit is a stupid idea is iver, now it is about hoping for the best which in this case the better outcome will be another 4 years of Trump.

Hugo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:46 am Biden has no fluidity when he talks. Its honestly painful to watch him stumble through a short address struggling to find words.

Raggs wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:05 am Unless I'm doing it wrong it looks like trumps won.

Northern Lights wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:15 am

tc27 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:27 am Im guessing most of us are not US citizens so I wonder if we are actually better off with Biden?

Trump is so unpredictable I think the Wests geopolitical rivals are more cautious with him in the WH. He has also given the freeloading NATO nations a well needed poke.

Yeah, as much as i dislike the blundering gobshite, Trump is arguably likely to be a better friend to the UK than Biden, especially post-Brexit.

The argument on whether Brexit is a stupid idea is iver, now it is about hoping for the best which in this case the better outcome will be another 4 years of Trump.

Lobby wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:04 am

Raggs wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:05 am Unless I'm doing it wrong it looks like trumps won.

As Biden has now won Arizona, I think he only needs Wisconsin and Michigan to win the election. If he can get Pennsylvania as well he definitely wins. All three are still too close to call.

Lobby wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:04 am

Raggs wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:05 am Unless I'm doing it wrong it looks like trumps won.

As Biden has now won Arizona, I think he only needs Wisconsin and Michigan to win the election. If he can get Pennsylvania as well he definitely wins. All three are still too close to call.

Hugo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:24 am What were the pre-election polls/predictions on specifically PA?

Big Biden win, slim Biden win, coin toss?

boere wors wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:34 am

Hugo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:24 am What were the pre-election polls/predictions on specifically PA?

Big Biden win, slim Biden win, coin toss?

Slim Biden win. Although in 2016 Trump won.

tc27 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:07 am

Northern Lights wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:15 am

tc27 wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:27 am Im guessing most of us are not US citizens so I wonder if we are actually better off with Biden?

Trump is so unpredictable I think the Wests geopolitical rivals are more cautious with him in the WH. He has also given the freeloading NATO nations a well needed poke.

Yeah, as much as i dislike the blundering gobshite, Trump is arguably likely to be a better friend to the UK than Biden, especially post-Brexit.

The argument on whether Brexit is a stupid idea is iver, now it is about hoping for the best which in this case the better outcome will be another 4 years of Trump.

TBH I am not sure there is much difference because the main political opposition to any trade deal will be from the UK not the US president or congress - the US will insist on agriculture being part of any FTA and thats absolute political dynamite in the UK

Hugo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:41 am

boere wors wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:34 am

Hugo wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:24 am What were the pre-election polls/predictions on specifically PA?

Big Biden win, slim Biden win, coin toss?

Slim Biden win. Although in 2016 Trump won.

Thanks.

Looks like Biden now has a slender lead in the Wisconsin tally.

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:15 am

sturginho wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:58 am

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:56 am Does look like a slim lead for Biden, Trump tweets showing a bit of panic.

Where are you seeing this?

On his twitter account... (he deleted the first one after spelling polls, poles)