RWC QF4 France vs Springboks on 15/10 @ 21h00
I suspect this stat would surprise a lot of supporters (maybe not any of us because we're nerds), but it's the sort of thing that keeps any coach who's preparing to play France awake at night. If a side cannot combat their kicking they cannot win. An extreme difference in French and Bok kicking metres.
Almost the first thing in this video is the presenter saying "how do they stop French flare", and almost the first thing Jackman (someone who knows what he's talking about and is a former player doing media work, which is a rare combination) says in reply is "it's all about kicking".
Good video, worth a watch. Bokke pack is formidable, Bongi has the fewest caps in the starting pack, he has 65 test caps. If France win in the forwards they win (not an original analysis of a rugby match, I know).
Good video, worth a watch. Bokke pack is formidable, Bongi has the fewest caps in the starting pack, he has 65 test caps. If France win in the forwards they win (not an original analysis of a rugby match, I know).
This thread (from a good SA analyst on Twitter) has some interesting bits from the 2022 match. Teams are similar to last time (green tick = same player same position, orange tick = same player different position, red cross = didn't play in 2022), especially the French side, we'll probably see similar stuff again. France went 6/2 and the Boks 5/3 last time too.
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OomStruisbaai
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Will be so great to have a Springbok vs All Black final.
My call: we'll know in the first 20 to 30 minutes how it'll likely go.
If it goes the RasNaber way: Boks are up on the scoreboard on the half (probably through try/tries), scrum is being used to generate penalties and kick to the corners, Boks are winning the lineout and ball France gets isn't very usable (front ball that's defended, or huge throws over the top that are risky), Boks are using their maul which we haven't really seen this RWC yet (and that's where the points are coming from), France's kicks for territory are being successfully run back, second half is then about Pollard/Le Roux defending the lead with Pollard kicking goals and Le Roux return kicking at the back from hand and not running it back. Boks restrict France to 1 try at most 2 and no more than 3 penalty goals.
If it goes the Galthie way: France are up at halftime as they almost always are (I can't remember the stat on this, but it's impressive, something like always up on the half since the last RWC other than one match against Ireland?), no penalties are being conceded at the scrum denying the Boks momentum, French variations from the lineout that avoid mauling are working and producing scoring chances, French deep territory kicking is working the Boks run it back but they're not breaking the line/beating defenders, winning on territory so their game that creates pressure to force errors and scoring chances works and is being turned into points by Ramos, Dupont isn't being contained by Reinach and as France start to get the upper hand he can do more/create try scoring chances.
If the first quarter or so of the match isn't clearly showing either picture, then it'll be contested until the end of the match.
I'm not sure about starting Reinach, Faf is the stronger defender. Dupont didn't really feature much in 2022 when he played against Faf, Aaron Smith did something similar in the pool game until Fozzy subbed him (Smith was removed 13 minutes before Dupont went off, when the score was 16-13). He's a big momentum generator for France.
If it goes the RasNaber way: Boks are up on the scoreboard on the half (probably through try/tries), scrum is being used to generate penalties and kick to the corners, Boks are winning the lineout and ball France gets isn't very usable (front ball that's defended, or huge throws over the top that are risky), Boks are using their maul which we haven't really seen this RWC yet (and that's where the points are coming from), France's kicks for territory are being successfully run back, second half is then about Pollard/Le Roux defending the lead with Pollard kicking goals and Le Roux return kicking at the back from hand and not running it back. Boks restrict France to 1 try at most 2 and no more than 3 penalty goals.
If it goes the Galthie way: France are up at halftime as they almost always are (I can't remember the stat on this, but it's impressive, something like always up on the half since the last RWC other than one match against Ireland?), no penalties are being conceded at the scrum denying the Boks momentum, French variations from the lineout that avoid mauling are working and producing scoring chances, French deep territory kicking is working the Boks run it back but they're not breaking the line/beating defenders, winning on territory so their game that creates pressure to force errors and scoring chances works and is being turned into points by Ramos, Dupont isn't being contained by Reinach and as France start to get the upper hand he can do more/create try scoring chances.
If the first quarter or so of the match isn't clearly showing either picture, then it'll be contested until the end of the match.
I'm not sure about starting Reinach, Faf is the stronger defender. Dupont didn't really feature much in 2022 when he played against Faf, Aaron Smith did something similar in the pool game until Fozzy subbed him (Smith was removed 13 minutes before Dupont went off, when the score was 16-13). He's a big momentum generator for France.
Last edited by _Os_ on Sun Oct 15, 2023 8:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
Yep; I think that covers all the bases._Os_ wrote: ↑Sun Oct 15, 2023 4:38 am My call: we'll know in the first 20 to 30 minutes how it'll likely go.
If it goes the RasNaber way: Boks are up on the scoreboard on the half (probably through try/tries), scrum is being used to generate penalties and kick to the corners, Boks are winning the lineout and ball France gets isn't very usable (front ball that's defended, or huge throws over the top that are risky), Boks are using their maul which we haven't really seen this RWC yet (and that's where the points are coming from), France's kicks for territory are being successfully run back, second half is then about Pollard/Le Roux defending the lead with Pollard kicking goals and Le Roux return kicking at the back from hand and not running it back. Boks restrict France to 1 try at most 2 and no more than 3 penalty goals.
If it goes the Galthie way: France are up at halftime as they almost always are (I can't remember the stat on this, but it's impressive, something like always up on the half since the last RWC other than one match against Ireland?), no penalties are being conceded at the scrum denying the Boks momentum, French variations from the lineout that avoid mauling are working and producing scoring chances, French deep territory kicking is working the Boks run it back but they're not breaking the line/beating defenders, winning on territory so their game that creates pressure to force errors and scoring chances works and is being turned into points by Ramos, Dupont isn't being contained by Reinach and as France start to get the upper hand he can do more/create try scoring chances.
If the first quarter or so of the match isn't clearly showing either picture, then it'll be contested until the end of the match.
I'm not sure about starting Reinach, Faf is the stronger defender. Dupont didn't really feature much in 2022 when he played against Faf, Conrad Smith did something similar in the pool game until Fozzy subbed him (Smith was removed 13 minutes before Dupont went off, when the score was 16-13). He's a big momentum generator for France.
I think the backs of Willemse, Arendse, Kolbe, Libbok and Reinach have all been selected to counter the long kicking game France uses. They are all rapid and elusive and have excellent positional play fielding kicks.
If France stick to their deep infield kicks, these 5 are the perfect ones in the squad to run it back to our retreating forwards, close as much space as possible and maybe even create a line break if they meet a chaser in a one-on-one matchup.
It’s a sound approach, IF France keeps to that tactic and IF they field the ball well at the back. We’ll have to wait and see.
We are going to miss Faf’s contributions in defence in the first half, but Reinach isn’t a slouch. We know this. It’s probably his biggest match ever for the Boks. I’m sure he’ll step up.
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OomStruisbaai
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The winner of this QF will go all the way. 
Too early to make calls like that Oom.
NZ looked great. Another performance like that in the final and they can take it.
If we get past France, we might still trip over England or get stomped by NZ in the final.
We are still in with a shot for sure, but we are not favourites. The odds are with NZ at the moment.
Willemse talked about this. They've made their preparations for what they think France are bringing and if France have changed anything then they will try to adapt to what's in front of them in the first 5 to 10 minutes. Amusing how all the SA journos just go "what about France's main strength their kicking?" very different to the views on France you hear from elsewhere.Blake wrote: ↑Sun Oct 15, 2023 6:40 am If France stick to their deep infield kicks, these 5 are the perfect ones in the squad to run it back to our retreating forwards, close as much space as possible and maybe even create a line break if they meet a chaser in a one-on-one matchup.
It’s a sound approach, IF France keeps to that tactic and IF they field the ball well at the back.
Nah, whoever wins this match will be the favourite, it'll be theirs to lose, that's the truth of it.Blake wrote: ↑Sun Oct 15, 2023 8:17 amToo early to make calls like that Oom.
NZ looked great. Another performance like that in the final and they can take it.
If we get past France, we might still trip over England or get stomped by NZ in the final.
We are still in with a shot for sure, but we are not favourites. The odds are with NZ at the moment.
So what you're saying is you want Cobus to do it for his old man and Os post the video again? Okay.
Southern Hemisphere solidarity?
I suspect many also think that if my make it past France we have a better shot in a final vs the All Blacks than we would have against Ireland who are 2-0 vs the Boks in our last 2 matches, where we are 1-1 vs NZ?
Not sure I agree though. There are no easy games in the final.
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Torquemada 1420
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No chance anyone is tripping over Eng. Winners of these 2 semis were always going to be the finalists given the stupid draw barring something insane like 2 red cards.Blake wrote: ↑Sun Oct 15, 2023 8:17 amToo early to make calls like that Oom.
NZ looked great. Another performance like that in the final and they can take it.
If we get past France, we might still trip over England or get stomped by NZ in the final.
We are still in with a shot for sure, but we are not favourites. The odds are with NZ at the moment.
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OomStruisbaai
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Two more hours.
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bok_viking
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A bit nervous about this game. If Libbok miss at least 50% of his kicks tonight we will lose if going by the other games. All were close where many missed kicks would have made a huge difference. France do not miss many kicks to posts.
At Monte Casino watching with a nice crowd here.
At Monte Casino watching with a nice crowd here.
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Uncle fester
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all the way !!