Stop voting for fucking Tories

[Hal Jordan]

I suspect we are in for a repeat of the succession of dunces that the Tories inflicted on themselves before settling on David Cameron as someone who could present to the electorate as something other than an irrelevance, overpromoted or a vampire.

[epwc]

I suspect we are in for a repeat of the succession of dunces that the Tories inflicted on themselves before settling on David Cameron as someone who could present to the electorate as something other than an irrelevance, overpromoted or a vampire.

And then turned out to be a complete useless wank stain

[robmatic]

Starmer must be one of the luckiest politicians to have ever lived.

I still wouldn't discount the great British public choosing to elect an absolute divot for terrible reasons next election.

[fishfoodie]

What are the odds of either one of these Leaders still being Leader when the GE rolls around; 20%, 10% ???

The Bumblecunt is probably the happiest Tory tonight, because he hasn't gone away, & plans on a return !

[Paddington Bear]

Starmer’s popularity ratings are hilarious, Labour’s are trending down, they only won 34% of the vote anyway. Neither candidate needs to be wildly popular to win if they can energise the right and keep the left demotivated

[Biffer]

I suspect we are in for a repeat of the succession of dunces that the Tories inflicted on themselves before settling on David Cameron as someone who could present to the electorate as something other than an irrelevance, overpromoted or a vampire.

The risk the Tories have at the moment is that they may have created / be creating an entire section of the electorate that is ‘never tory’ in the same way that labour created a big slab of ‘never labour’ in the seventies. The political weather vane may have changed to the default being labour with occasional Tories rather than the other way around.

[SaintK]

I suspect we are in for a repeat of the succession of dunces that the Tories inflicted on themselves before settling on David Cameron as someone who could present to the electorate as something other than an irrelevance, overpromoted or a vampire.

Ian Duncan-Smith says hello

[SaintK]

Starmer’s popularity ratings are hilarious, Labour’s are trending down, they only won 34% of the vote anyway. Neither candidate needs to be wildly popular to win if they can energise the right and keep the left demotivated

And Reform won’t have split the Tory vote apart even more?

[Paddington Bear]

Starmer’s popularity ratings are hilarious, Labour’s are trending down, they only won 34% of the vote anyway. Neither candidate needs to be wildly popular to win if they can energise the right and keep the left demotivated

And Reform won’t have split the Tory vote apart even more?

Certainly a possibility, but both Jenrick and Badenoch seem to be more focussed on winning back Reform voters over Lib Dem. The correlation between Reform leaning and possible Tories is not quite as strong as is often thought either, and by virtue of having a whacking great majority Labour have plenty to lose from Reform being a major player as well.

Anecdotally but also backed up by the government’s declining ratings - there is a good chance that 5 years of Labour focuses minds in more traditional Tory country and allows them to win back more voters than we might at first expect.

Essentially Labour’s majority is very wide but very thin, FPTP is very hard to call when 4/5 parties all poll decently, writing anyone off seems like a fool’s game given the events of the last decade. Remember the hilarity among Tories when Corbyn was first elected?

[Hal Jordan]

I suspect we are in for a repeat of the succession of dunces that the Tories inflicted on themselves before settling on David Cameron as someone who could present to the electorate as something other than an irrelevance, overpromoted or a vampire.

Ian Duncan-Smith says hello

The embodiment of the Peter Principle in everything he's ever done.

[fishfoodie]

Certainly a possibility, but both Jenrick and Badenoch seem to be more focussed on winning back Reform voters over Lib Dem. The correlation between Reform leaning and possible Tories is not quite as strong as is often thought either, and by virtue of having a whacking great majority Labour have plenty to lose from Reform being a major player as well.

Anecdotally but also backed up by the government’s declining ratings - there is a good chance that 5 years of Labour focuses minds in more traditional Tory country and allows them to win back more voters than we might at first expect.

Essentially Labour’s majority is very wide but very thin, FPTP is very hard to call when 4/5 parties all poll decently, writing anyone off seems like a fool’s game given the events of the last decade. Remember the hilarity among Tories when Corbyn was first elected?

And respected commentator after respected commentator has pointed out that you don't win back voters by lurching further to the extremes !

You have to move to center & appeal to a broader group of voters.

I don't know why it has to be said, there's endless examples of what works & what doesn't, but some people are too dense & arrogant to ever learn a lesson without burning their own hand.

[_Os_]

I suspect we are in for a repeat of the succession of dunces that the Tories inflicted on themselves before settling on David Cameron as someone who could present to the electorate as something other than an irrelevance, overpromoted or a vampire.

The risk the Tories have at the moment is that they may have created / be creating an entire section of the electorate that is ‘never tory’ in the same way that labour created a big slab of ‘never labour’ in the seventies. The political weather vane may have changed to the default being labour with occasional Tories rather than the other way around.

Bingo, that is their biggest problem. The others are:

1. Cannot out bid any party to the right of them by moving further right. Reform just shifts position and remains to their right. There's no possibility of the Tories ever being an anti-establishment party either. The last election showed them all this, but they don't care. They will go under if they keep doing this. What they should be doing is moving to the centre and isolating those further right by bluntly saying they're extreme/racist/crazy.

2. A stat during the GE was 85% (not certain on that percentage, it was high) of 2010 Tory voters over 65 are now dead. They're doing incredibly poorly with anyone under the age of 50, single digit support. If they don't start getting things right very soon, they're going to run out of supporters. Every time there's an interview with a panel of Tory members on TV, it's a table of old people with maybe one young person. They seem to be relying on people voting Tory as they get older, it's demonstrably not happening though, most people don't change their politics much after age about 30.

3. Labour's vote percentage in the 2024 election would be a high in a PR election and put them in the driving seat of coalition forming. The UK obviously doesn't use a PR system for GEs, but it does now have a fragmented FPTP system. 35%-ish is the threshold where winning becomes possible, which Labour have in quite a coherent voter coalition. Cannot see how the Tories are going to put together a voter coalition broad enough any time soon (they need supporters of Gauke/Rory Stewart/Lib Dems on one end and on the other end supporters of Rees-Mogg/Farage/Reform). The only thing that kept the right together were the two GEs in the Brexit waiting room and that binary issue forcing them all together, other than that their GE vote share has been similar or a lot worse than Labour's in 2024. Tory vote share is: 1997 30.7%, 2001 31.7%, 2005 32.4%, 2010 36.1%, 2015 36.9%, 2017 42.3%, 2019 43.6%, 2024 23.7%.

All this in a country where the right loses the popular vote every GE since the 1960s, something which didn't matter when they were united behind one party on >40%, but matters when the right is clearly divided in two and the Tories are scoring <35%. People would be terrified of any Tory/Reform coalition, the Lib Dems will outright refuse to go into coalition with them again. As things stand they struggle to ever get a majority, going right maybe gets them back to where they were in 1997/2001/2005. Maybe a coalition would be possible from there but it would be with loonies to their right, just the possibility of that would encourage the anti-Tory tactical voting seen in 2024.

[Paddington Bear]

Certainly a possibility, but both Jenrick and Badenoch seem to be more focussed on winning back Reform voters over Lib Dem. The correlation between Reform leaning and possible Tories is not quite as strong as is often thought either, and by virtue of having a whacking great majority Labour have plenty to lose from Reform being a major player as well.

Anecdotally but also backed up by the government’s declining ratings - there is a good chance that 5 years of Labour focuses minds in more traditional Tory country and allows them to win back more voters than we might at first expect.

Essentially Labour’s majority is very wide but very thin, FPTP is very hard to call when 4/5 parties all poll decently, writing anyone off seems like a fool’s game given the events of the last decade. Remember the hilarity among Tories when Corbyn was first elected?

And respected commentator after respected commentator has pointed out that you don't win back voters by lurching further to the extremes !

You have to move to center & appeal to a broader group of voters.

I don't know why it has to be said, there's endless examples of what works & what doesn't, but some people are too dense & arrogant to ever learn a lesson without burning their own hand.

Respected commentators win few elections, the evidence that the Tories only win from the centre is very very sketchy to say the least, and Kier Starmer got fewer votes than Jeremy Corbyn so I’m not sold that it rings true for Labour either. We also should address that the Westminster ‘centre’ is a long, long way from what the centre of public opinion is on just about everything.

Badenoch’s mad and Jenrick is no one’s idea of a charismatic national leader (much like our incumbent PM I suppose). Could both of them get 35% of the vote? In the right circumstances definitely. Can they go higher? Possibly with a fair wind and a shit performance from Labour in government. Can Labour in government stop the Greens from eating into their vote share? Probably not. We’re in very unpredictable times so I have a very hard time taking these ‘respected commentators’ who live in an eternal 1999 particularly seriously.

[Uncle fester]

[I like neeps]

The most Ian Dunt tweet and reply ever. I can't see Britain first having a female Black leader...

[SaintK]

Certainly a possibility, but both Jenrick and Badenoch seem to be more focussed on winning back Reform voters over Lib Dem. The correlation between Reform leaning and possible Tories is not quite as strong as is often thought either, and by virtue of having a whacking great majority Labour have plenty to lose from Reform being a major player as well.

Anecdotally but also backed up by the government’s declining ratings - there is a good chance that 5 years of Labour focuses minds in more traditional Tory country and allows them to win back more voters than we might at first expect.

Essentially Labour’s majority is very wide but very thin, FPTP is very hard to call when 4/5 parties all poll decently, writing anyone off seems like a fool’s game given the events of the last decade. Remember the hilarity among Tories when Corbyn was first elected?

And respected commentator after respected commentator has pointed out that you don't win back voters by lurching further to the extremes !

You have to move to center & appeal to a broader group of voters.

I don't know why it has to be said, there's endless examples of what works & what doesn't, but some people are too dense & arrogant to ever learn a lesson without burning their own hand.

Respected commentators win few elections, the evidence that the Tories only win from the centre is very very sketchy to say the least, and Kier Starmer got fewer votes than Jeremy Corbyn so I’m not sold that it rings true for Labour either. We also should address that the Westminster ‘centre’ is a long, long way from what the centre of public opinion is on just about everything.

Badenoch’s mad and Jenrick is no one’s idea of a charismatic national leader (much like our incumbent PM I suppose). Could both of them get 35% of the vote? In the right circumstances definitely. Can they go higher? Possibly with a fair wind and a shit performance from Labour in government. Can Labour in government stop the Greens from eating into their vote share? Probably not. We’re in very unpredictable times so I have a very hard time taking these ‘respected commentators’ who live in an eternal 1999 particularly seriously.

It doesn't matter. Neither of them will lead the Conservatives into the next election. Can't see either of them lasting beyond 2 years max.

[Dogbert]

And respected commentator after respected commentator has pointed out that you don't win back voters by lurching further to the extremes !

You have to move to center & appeal to a broader group of voters.

I don't know why it has to be said, there's endless examples of what works & what doesn't, but some people are too dense & arrogant to ever learn a lesson without burning their own hand.

Respected commentators win few elections, the evidence that the Tories only win from the centre is very very sketchy to say the least, and Kier Starmer got fewer votes than Jeremy Corbyn so I’m not sold that it rings true for Labour either. We also should address that the Westminster ‘centre’ is a long, long way from what the centre of public opinion is on just about everything.

Badenoch’s mad and Jenrick is no one’s idea of a charismatic national leader (much like our incumbent PM I suppose). Could both of them get 35% of the vote? In the right circumstances definitely. Can they go higher? Possibly with a fair wind and a shit performance from Labour in government. Can Labour in government stop the Greens from eating into their vote share? Probably not. We’re in very unpredictable times so I have a very hard time taking these ‘respected commentators’ who live in an eternal 1999 particularly seriously.

It doesn't matter. Neither of them will lead the Conservatives into the next election. Can't see either of them lasting beyond 2 years max.

Perfect timing for the rehabilitation of BoJo

[Paddington Bear]

And respected commentator after respected commentator has pointed out that you don't win back voters by lurching further to the extremes !

You have to move to center & appeal to a broader group of voters.

I don't know why it has to be said, there's endless examples of what works & what doesn't, but some people are too dense & arrogant to ever learn a lesson without burning their own hand.

Respected commentators win few elections, the evidence that the Tories only win from the centre is very very sketchy to say the least, and Kier Starmer got fewer votes than Jeremy Corbyn so I’m not sold that it rings true for Labour either. We also should address that the Westminster ‘centre’ is a long, long way from what the centre of public opinion is on just about everything.

Badenoch’s mad and Jenrick is no one’s idea of a charismatic national leader (much like our incumbent PM I suppose). Could both of them get 35% of the vote? In the right circumstances definitely. Can they go higher? Possibly with a fair wind and a shit performance from Labour in government. Can Labour in government stop the Greens from eating into their vote share? Probably not. We’re in very unpredictable times so I have a very hard time taking these ‘respected commentators’ who live in an eternal 1999 particularly seriously.

It doesn't matter. Neither of them will lead the Conservatives into the next election. Can't see either of them lasting beyond 2 years max.

It’s definitely possible but I don’t think its the most likely outcome (Badenoch much more likely to crash and burn than Jenrick IMO). The Tories don’t have the same factional forever war as Labour do, and being in opposition allows you to delay difficult conversations whilst uniting your party around hating the government

[Biffer]

Respected commentators win few elections, the evidence that the Tories only win from the centre is very very sketchy to say the least, and Kier Starmer got fewer votes than Jeremy Corbyn so I’m not sold that it rings true for Labour either. We also should address that the Westminster ‘centre’ is a long, long way from what the centre of public opinion is on just about everything.

Badenoch’s mad and Jenrick is no one’s idea of a charismatic national leader (much like our incumbent PM I suppose). Could both of them get 35% of the vote? In the right circumstances definitely. Can they go higher? Possibly with a fair wind and a shit performance from Labour in government. Can Labour in government stop the Greens from eating into their vote share? Probably not. We’re in very unpredictable times so I have a very hard time taking these ‘respected commentators’ who live in an eternal 1999 particularly seriously.

It doesn't matter. Neither of them will lead the Conservatives into the next election. Can't see either of them lasting beyond 2 years max.

It’s definitely possible but I don’t think its the most likely outcome (Badenoch much more likely to crash and burn than Jenrick IMO). The Tories don’t have the same factional forever war as Labour do, and being in opposition allows you to delay difficult conversations whilst uniting your party around hating the government

The tory factional war has been the major factor in UK politics for more thirty years.

[Paddington Bear]

It doesn't matter. Neither of them will lead the Conservatives into the next election. Can't see either of them lasting beyond 2 years max.

It’s definitely possible but I don’t think its the most likely outcome (Badenoch much more likely to crash and burn than Jenrick IMO). The Tories don’t have the same factional forever war as Labour do, and being in opposition allows you to delay difficult conversations whilst uniting your party around hating the government

The tory factional war has been the major factor in UK politics for more thirty years.

When I talk about the forever war I mean that there is more than a segment of the Labour party for whom government is a dirty business that gets in the way of the real battle - motions at conference.

These people exist in the Tory party, but even the biggest of the eurosceptics shut up just enough for long enough to get Cameron in. Being in power matters more to your average Tory backbencher/member than it does to their Labour equivalent.

[Biffer]

Result of the Tories and their hostile environment

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdd4p62nyg8o

50,000 fewer applications for foreign student visas.

Each student spends about £20k a year on fees, and about the same on living expenses. 50k x £40k = £2billion removed from the UK economy, about half that amount away from university funding.

[SaintK]

Respected commentators win few elections, the evidence that the Tories only win from the centre is very very sketchy to say the least, and Kier Starmer got fewer votes than Jeremy Corbyn so I’m not sold that it rings true for Labour either. We also should address that the Westminster ‘centre’ is a long, long way from what the centre of public opinion is on just about everything.

Badenoch’s mad and Jenrick is no one’s idea of a charismatic national leader (much like our incumbent PM I suppose). Could both of them get 35% of the vote? In the right circumstances definitely. Can they go higher? Possibly with a fair wind and a shit performance from Labour in government. Can Labour in government stop the Greens from eating into their vote share? Probably not. We’re in very unpredictable times so I have a very hard time taking these ‘respected commentators’ who live in an eternal 1999 particularly seriously.

It doesn't matter. Neither of them will lead the Conservatives into the next election. Can't see either of them lasting beyond 2 years max.

It’s definitely possible but I don’t think its the most likely outcome (Badenoch much more likely to crash and burn than Jenrick IMO). The Tories don’t have the same factional forever war as Labour do, and being in opposition allows you to delay difficult conversations whilst uniting your party around hating the government

You must be joking.
The Tory party are absolutely riven between centre, right and far right. Jenrick is already (according to the i Paper) telling one-nation Tories that he will come back to the middle ground when he's elected. Which will please the spartans and hard right no end as well as the 120k odd members who allegedly prefer Baddenoch or, according to Farage, Reform. It will take far more than lightweights like the two remaining candidates for leader to unite the Tories
As for the Labour Party, the Corbynistas and Momentum have absolutely no power base currently and will be just about dead and buried come the next election.

[Paddington Bear]

It doesn't matter. Neither of them will lead the Conservatives into the next election. Can't see either of them lasting beyond 2 years max.

It’s definitely possible but I don’t think its the most likely outcome (Badenoch much more likely to crash and burn than Jenrick IMO). The Tories don’t have the same factional forever war as Labour do, and being in opposition allows you to delay difficult conversations whilst uniting your party around hating the government

You must be joking.
The Tory party are absolutely riven between centre, right and far right. Jenrick is already (according to the i Paper) telling one-nation Tories that he will come back to the middle ground when he's elected. Which will please the spartans and hard right no end as well as the 120k odd members who allegedly prefer Baddenoch or, according to Farage, Reform. It will take far more than lightweights like the two remaining candidates for leader to unite the Tories
As for the Labour Party, the Corbynistas and Momentum have absolutely no power base currently and will be just about dead and buried come the next election.

I’ve already explained my reasoning above. I’m sorry - it is unarguable that the Tories are more power focussed across their party than Labour, for whom a larger section are focussed on ideological purity. Far more Tory MPs are likely to hold their noses and support a party leader they dislike than is true opposite.

The far left has been killed many times, they keep coming back. There’s a good chance that the Greens sweep up a larger proportion of that, but in which case they will play the role UKIP did to the Tories. Either Starmer leaks votes left or tacks left and gives ‘one nation’ Tories a much clearer friend/enemy distinction.

[robmatic]

Result of the Tories and their hostile environment

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdd4p62nyg8o

50,000 fewer applications for foreign student visas.

Each student spends about £20k a year on fees, and about the same on living expenses. 50k x £40k = £2billion removed from the UK economy, about half that amount away from university funding.

I am not a massive fan of the hostile environment but there was definitely shenanigans going on with the student visas and it is probably ultimately better if demand for places at UK universities is driven by the quality of the education on offer rather than it being the easiest route through a ballache of an immigration system.

[petej]

Certainly a possibility, but both Jenrick and Badenoch seem to be more focussed on winning back Reform voters over Lib Dem. The correlation between Reform leaning and possible Tories is not quite as strong as is often thought either, and by virtue of having a whacking great majority Labour have plenty to lose from Reform being a major player as well.

Anecdotally but also backed up by the government’s declining ratings - there is a good chance that 5 years of Labour focuses minds in more traditional Tory country and allows them to win back more voters than we might at first expect.

Essentially Labour’s majority is very wide but very thin, FPTP is very hard to call when 4/5 parties all poll decently, writing anyone off seems like a fool’s game given the events of the last decade. Remember the hilarity among Tories when Corbyn was first elected?

And respected commentator after respected commentator has pointed out that you don't win back voters by lurching further to the extremes !

You have to move to center & appeal to a broader group of voters.

I don't know why it has to be said, there's endless examples of what works & what doesn't, but some people are too dense & arrogant to ever learn a lesson without burning their own hand.

Respected commentators win few elections, the evidence that the Tories only win from the centre is very very sketchy to say the least, and Kier Starmer got fewer votes than Jeremy Corbyn so I’m not sold that it rings true for Labour either. We also should address that the Westminster ‘centre’ is a long, long way from what the centre of public opinion is on just about everything.

Badenoch’s mad and Jenrick is no one’s idea of a charismatic national leader (much like our incumbent PM I suppose). Could both of them get 35% of the vote? In the right circumstances definitely. Can they go higher? Possibly with a fair wind and a shit performance from Labour in government. Can Labour in government stop the Greens from eating into their vote share? Probably not. We’re in very unpredictable times so I have a very hard time taking these ‘respected commentators’ who live in an eternal 1999 particularly seriously.

Echo the point on Westminster centre. Economically the UK population is a left of starmers labour but on social issues to the right of starmers Labour. The generation who remembers the 70s are gone and people are fed up with private monopolies taking the piss (like the water companies and trains). We are indeed in unpredictable times.

[Biffer]

Result of the Tories and their hostile environment

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdd4p62nyg8o

50,000 fewer applications for foreign student visas.

Each student spends about £20k a year on fees, and about the same on living expenses. 50k x £40k = £2billion removed from the UK economy, about half that amount away from university funding.

I am not a massive fan of the hostile environment but there was definitely shenanigans going on with the student visas and it is probably ultimately better if demand for places at UK universities is driven by the quality of the education on offer rather than it being the easiest route through a ballache of an immigration system.

There may have been some shenanigans but not on that scale. As ever, the actual rate of any problem is massively over estimated in the public psyche due to distortion of problems by media sources (see surveys on the number of asylum seekers, boats in the channel, percentage of population that's Muslim, whole host of other things). Even if there are 10,000 people pissing about with the system, that means there's more than £1.5 billion that's disappeared from the economy, about 50% of that probably in University funding. That won't be replaced, so there's a hit to growth, fewer jobs etc, etc.

Maybe fix the system instead of making it harder for genuine applicants.

[Paddington Bear]

Result of the Tories and their hostile environment

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdd4p62nyg8o

50,000 fewer applications for foreign student visas.

Each student spends about £20k a year on fees, and about the same on living expenses. 50k x £40k = £2billion removed from the UK economy, about half that amount away from university funding.

I am not a massive fan of the hostile environment but there was definitely shenanigans going on with the student visas and it is probably ultimately better if demand for places at UK universities is driven by the quality of the education on offer rather than it being the easiest route through a ballache of an immigration system.

There may have been some shenanigans but not on that scale. As ever, the actual rate of any problem is massively over estimated in the public psyche due to distortion of problems by media sources (see surveys on the number of asylum seekers, boats in the channel, percentage of population that's Muslim, whole host of other things). Even if there are 10,000 people pissing about with the system, that means there's more than £1.5 billion that's disappeared from the economy, about 50% of that probably in University funding. That won't be replaced, so there's a hit to growth, fewer jobs etc, etc.

Maybe fix the system instead of making it harder for genuine applicants.

The sharp decrease in dependents tells you everything you need to know about the people who have stopped applying. I’d love to see this broken down by university, I dare say it is the lower ranked visa mills feeling the pinch from this drop

[epwc]

Maybe fix the system instead of making it harder for genuine applicants.

Fixing the system is what needs to happen across the board

[Paddington Bear]

And respected commentator after respected commentator has pointed out that you don't win back voters by lurching further to the extremes !

You have to move to center & appeal to a broader group of voters.

I don't know why it has to be said, there's endless examples of what works & what doesn't, but some people are too dense & arrogant to ever learn a lesson without burning their own hand.

Respected commentators win few elections, the evidence that the Tories only win from the centre is very very sketchy to say the least, and Kier Starmer got fewer votes than Jeremy Corbyn so I’m not sold that it rings true for Labour either. We also should address that the Westminster ‘centre’ is a long, long way from what the centre of public opinion is on just about everything.

Badenoch’s mad and Jenrick is no one’s idea of a charismatic national leader (much like our incumbent PM I suppose). Could both of them get 35% of the vote? In the right circumstances definitely. Can they go higher? Possibly with a fair wind and a shit performance from Labour in government. Can Labour in government stop the Greens from eating into their vote share? Probably not. We’re in very unpredictable times so I have a very hard time taking these ‘respected commentators’ who live in an eternal 1999 particularly seriously.

Echo the point on Westminster centre. Economically the UK population is a left of starmers labour but on social issues to the right of starmers Labour. The generation who remembers the 70s are gone and people are fed up with private monopolies taking the piss (like the water companies and trains). We are indeed in unpredictable times.

You may have seen Northern Rail in the news this week for prosecuting people for using Anytime tickets that Northern sold them on trains they technically weren’t valid for. People being charged £400+ and getting a criminal record over a £1.90 difference in fare price (this is clearly different to fare evasion for which I am much more comfortable with people getting a hiding)

[Dogbert]

Result of the Tories and their hostile environment

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdd4p62nyg8o

50,000 fewer applications for foreign student visas.

Each student spends about £20k a year on fees, and about the same on living expenses. 50k x £40k = £2billion removed from the UK economy, about half that amount away from university funding.

Well you can multiply that by 2.5 for for Veterinary / Medical degrees ( and the International students still think its a bargain )

[petej]

Result of the Tories and their hostile environment

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cdd4p62nyg8o

50,000 fewer applications for foreign student visas.

Each student spends about £20k a year on fees, and about the same on living expenses. 50k x £40k = £2billion removed from the UK economy, about half that amount away from university funding.

Well you can multiply that by 2.5 for for Veterinary / Medical degrees ( and the International students still think its a bargain )

I would be surprised if medicine and veterinary degrees lacked enough applications to fill the spaces.

[epwc]

The Tories had no qualms about fucking the economy to appease the racists

[petej]

Respected commentators win few elections, the evidence that the Tories only win from the centre is very very sketchy to say the least, and Kier Starmer got fewer votes than Jeremy Corbyn so I’m not sold that it rings true for Labour either. We also should address that the Westminster ‘centre’ is a long, long way from what the centre of public opinion is on just about everything.

Badenoch’s mad and Jenrick is no one’s idea of a charismatic national leader (much like our incumbent PM I suppose). Could both of them get 35% of the vote? In the right circumstances definitely. Can they go higher? Possibly with a fair wind and a shit performance from Labour in government. Can Labour in government stop the Greens from eating into their vote share? Probably not. We’re in very unpredictable times so I have a very hard time taking these ‘respected commentators’ who live in an eternal 1999 particularly seriously.

Echo the point on Westminster centre. Economically the UK population is a left of starmers labour but on social issues to the right of starmers Labour. The generation who remembers the 70s are gone and people are fed up with private monopolies taking the piss (like the water companies and trains). We are indeed in unpredictable times.

You may have seen Northern Rail in the news this week for prosecuting people for using Anytime tickets that Northern sold them on trains they technically weren’t valid for. People being charged £400+ and getting a criminal record over a £1.90 difference in fare price (this is clearly different to fare evasion for which I am much more comfortable with people getting a hiding)

The railways and English water are fucked. The mess of arrangements, contractual, commercial, legal , financial management etc...means it is complete cluster. The money gets siphoned off and we get the shitty service and the bill. These structures/arrangements are based on siphoning money off and having minimal ownership or responsibility because no sane person would think that's an efficient way to run this.

I'm in a foul mood as I've spent most of my week trying unpick a mess of arrangements (contractual, management and actual physical stuff/product don't align) so I might be able to progress the engineering work and I've had gastroenteritis thanks to the kind people at Wessex water though not badly as I've built up a resistance.

[fishfoodie]

..... I've had gastroenteritis thanks to the kind people at Wessex water though not badly as I've built up a resistance.

Commiserations. Maybe have a squirty dump on Thatchers grave to make yourself feel a little bit better ?

The UKs privatizations of utilities has been an almost complete fucking disaster for the consumer.

Could the telecommunications one be classed as the one success ?

Gas, Power, Post, Water Rail, all total clusterfucks that will end up costing more than was raised.

[Tichtheid]

Could the telecommunications one be classed as the one success ?

It could be argued that tech advances in that industry were always going to improve the system dramatically, no matter who the profits went to, be it private company shareholders or reinvested back into the public purse to pursue even more advances for the benefit of the consumer, but without the money taken out and offshored

Many of the tech advances came from military, ie public spending.

[fishfoodie]

Could the telecommunications one be classed as the one success ?

It could be argued that tech advances in that industry were always going to improve the system dramatically, no matter who the profits went to, be it private company shareholders or reinvested back into the public purse to pursue even more advances for the benefit of the consumer, but without the money taken out and offshored

Many of the tech advances came from military, ie public spending.

Yeah that's exactly why I wonder if the competition would have happened organically anyway, because of the massive change from mechanical/analog, to digital systems.

The misfortune of UK taxpayers is that this first privatization went really well, & so paved the way for many more. In Ireland the reverse was true, when we privatized our telecom company, the people who bought shares got rinsed, & this poisoned the ground for any future privatizations.

[lemonhead]

I suspect we are in for a repeat of the succession of dunces that the Tories inflicted on themselves before settling on David Cameron as someone who could present to the electorate as something other than an irrelevance, overpromoted or a vampire.

Senior Tories evidently feel the same.

There’s always a chance that somebody can rise to the occasion and become a statesman when we least expect it. But in both these instances, these are people who have got flawed personalities. Kemi is divisive and aggressive and wrong about everything, and Jenrick is manipulative – and can be manipulated. They will be dancing on the fucking tables at Labour HQ.”

Wonder just how powerless life as an MP must feel sometimes for those with principles. Rory Stewart had a point

[Hal Jordan]

Jenrick going full.on anti-ECHR to court the vote, I see. Does he believe in anything other than his own wallet?

[Slick]

I am not a massive fan of the hostile environment but there was definitely shenanigans going on with the student visas and it is probably ultimately better if demand for places at UK universities is driven by the quality of the education on offer rather than it being the easiest route through a ballache of an immigration system.

There may have been some shenanigans but not on that scale. As ever, the actual rate of any problem is massively over estimated in the public psyche due to distortion of problems by media sources (see surveys on the number of asylum seekers, boats in the channel, percentage of population that's Muslim, whole host of other things). Even if there are 10,000 people pissing about with the system, that means there's more than £1.5 billion that's disappeared from the economy, about 50% of that probably in University funding. That won't be replaced, so there's a hit to growth, fewer jobs etc, etc.

Maybe fix the system instead of making it harder for genuine applicants.

The sharp decrease in dependents tells you everything you need to know about the people who have stopped applying. I’d love to see this broken down by university, I dare say it is the lower ranked visa mills feeling the pinch from this drop

I was speaking to someone senior at a Scottish university a couple of weeks ago. They are obviously shitting themselves about the drop in African students coming over but also said the number of young kids running around campus and disrupting teaching had become completely unmanageable

[SaintK]

The dinosaur's dinosaur. What an absolute bell-end