Starmergeddon: They Came And Ate Us

[SaintK]

Reform win Runcorn, one of Labour's safest seats, by just 6 votes, making it one of the closest elections in British history.

Having overturned a Labour heartland in the north west, on the other coast they’ve smashed the Tories in Lincolshire. Fallen very narrowly short in the Tyneside and Doncaster mayoral elections and not a million miles away in Bristol, somewhere its often assumed is immune to their message. Both parties under threat, expect panic buttons to be hit

It was the 49th safest seat and THE closest parliamentary election in history!
Turnout just under 50% which was lower than the General Election.
The Lib Dems and Greens will hit the Tories hard in the South and South West

[robmatic]

I'm sure Starmer will learn all the right lessons:-

Be tougher on immigrants to try and win over Regorm voters who will never vote for you.

Be tougher on benefits to try and appease right wing media interests who will never support you.

Continue to kowtow to multinationals who will tolerate you until you cease to be a supplicant.

Indulge in culture war shit you will never win no matter how much you punch down.

Abandon any pretence of progressive policies to ensure that section of the Party and the public looks elsewhere for leadership.

It's not great but the "You're all thick and racist" approach doesn't work all that well either.

[_Os_]

Reform win Runcorn, one of Labour's safest seats, by just 6 votes, making it one of the closest elections in British history.

Having overturned a Labour heartland in the north west, on the other coast they’ve smashed the Tories in Lincolshire. Fallen very narrowly short in the Tyneside and Doncaster mayoral elections and not a million miles away in Bristol, somewhere its often assumed is immune to their message. Both parties under threat, expect panic buttons to be hit

Goes back to a recent post I made. FPTP electoral system with this many competitive parties is unusual. It's quite normal now at local and constituency level to have Labour/Tories/Reform all in with a shot and Lib Dems/Greens also taking votes. It pushes down the % needed to win quite a bit and turns it into a coin flip.

FPTP should force the electorate into two opposing camps. The split which should be forming is between the "things aren't great, but lets not burn it all down and make everything worse" people and the "I'm fucked, lets go crazy" people. But Labour people who don't want Reform aren't going to vote Tory if needs be, and nor will Tories vote Labour to keep Reform out if they have to. Which means there's this 3 to 5 way standoff in England maybe a 6 way standoff (when independents are factored in), whilst in Wales and Scotland it's a 3 to 6 way standoff. System not designed for this, could see all manner of strange outcomes.

[Yeeb]

I'm sure Starmer will learn all the right lessons:-

Be tougher on immigrants to try and win over Regorm voters who will never vote for you.

Be tougher on benefits to try and appease right wing media interests who will never support you.

Continue to kowtow to multinationals who will tolerate you until you cease to be a supplicant.

Indulge in culture war shit you will never win no matter how much you punch down.

Abandon any pretence of progressive policies to ensure that section of the Party and the public looks elsewhere for leadership.

It's not great but the "You're all thick and racist" approach doesn't work all that well either.

Many posters on here think that is an effective way of talking politics

[Yeeb]

Reform taking power in a few councils will be something to watch. A shower of incompetents who’ll rip apart the entire thing and burn it all down while people suffer.

It’s local councils , hardly anyone will notice any difference whatsoever

Turnout will be abysmal even though it's a nice day.

Hmmm seems to have had one of the better turnouts for locals at nearly 50%, the local elections in 2021 had only 35.9% as a comparison

[Yeeb]

Reform taking power in a few councils will be something to watch. A shower of incompetents who’ll rip apart the entire thing and burn it all down while people suffer.

It’s local councils , hardly anyone will notice any difference whatsoever

Also increasingly their budgets are completely consumed by their statutory requirements around social care, there’s very limited scope for any regime to be notably different to any other

Pretty much - have lived in strong Labour run councils as well as LD and Tory ones , hardly any difference whatsoever in their effectiveness or otherwise. One must always remember that local government contains people who were unable to get selected for a central govt or civil service job !

[sturginho]

I'm sure Starmer will learn all the right lessons:-

Be tougher on immigrants to try and win over Regorm voters who will never vote for you.

Be tougher on benefits to try and appease right wing media interests who will never support you.

Continue to kowtow to multinationals who will tolerate you until you cease to be a supplicant.

Indulge in culture war shit you will never win no matter how much you punch down.

Abandon any pretence of progressive policies to ensure that section of the Party and the public looks elsewhere for leadership.

It's not great but the "You're all thick and racist" approach doesn't work all that well either.

That's true, but people do keep saying that they want honesty from their politicians

[Paddington Bear]

Reform win Runcorn, one of Labour's safest seats, by just 6 votes, making it one of the closest elections in British history.

Having overturned a Labour heartland in the north west, on the other coast they’ve smashed the Tories in Lincolshire. Fallen very narrowly short in the Tyneside and Doncaster mayoral elections and not a million miles away in Bristol, somewhere its often assumed is immune to their message. Both parties under threat, expect panic buttons to be hit

Goes back to a recent post I made. FPTP electoral system with this many competitive parties is unusual. It's quite normal now at local and constituency level to have Labour/Tories/Reform all in with a shot and Lib Dems/Greens also taking votes. It pushes down the % needed to win quite a bit and turns it into a coin flip.

FPTP should force the electorate into two opposing camps. The split which should be forming is between the "things aren't great, but lets not burn it all down and make everything worse" people and the "I'm fucked, lets go crazy" people. But Labour people who don't want Reform aren't going to vote Tory if needs be, and nor will Tories vote Labour to keep Reform out if they have to. Which means there's this 3 to 5 way standoff in England maybe a 6 way standoff (when independents are factored in), whilst in Wales and Scotland it's a 3 to 6 way standoff. System not designed for this, could see all manner of strange outcomes.

Yep, system certainly isn’t designed for this and there’s never been less loyalty to the two main parties (wholly deservedly).

[_Os_]

I'm sure Starmer will learn all the right lessons:-

Be tougher on immigrants to try and win over Regorm voters who will never vote for you.

Be tougher on benefits to try and appease right wing media interests who will never support you.

Continue to kowtow to multinationals who will tolerate you until you cease to be a supplicant.

Indulge in culture war shit you will never win no matter how much you punch down.

Abandon any pretence of progressive policies to ensure that section of the Party and the public looks elsewhere for leadership.

It's not great but the "You're all thick and racist" approach doesn't work all that well either.

Many posters on here think that is an effective way of talking politics

Hal is correct though, it's not a debate which can be won by Labour and I would argue not a debate which can be won by the incumbent at all.

Lets take one of the things the UK government/Labour can control and made promises on (as opposed to a number the media often go with, the amount of people crossing the channel in small boats, which cannot be be controlled). That they would work to fix the asylum backlog and increase deportations of those without a right to be in the UK. Returns are now at their highest level since 2017, it's possible Labour are doing what they said they would do on this. The UK government has even released videos of deportation flights, basically as propaganda to show they're doing something.

But then comes the problem. It doesn't matter what Labour do. Those that see this as the key issue will always say it's not enough. If Labour over deliver on this: completely fix the UK asylum system ending the hotels, increase deportations, bring net migration back down to the 250k-300k per year it was when they were last in power. They will still be told by Frog Face that isn't good enough, he will say the country is being flooded regardless, he will say that he can do a much better job, Labour isn't listening and Labour is an enemy of the UK. You can write the Frog Face script on this years out, doesn't matter what the facts are.

[Paddington Bear]

Again though, Runcorn is a labour hold unless people who voted for them in 2024 decided to vote Reform. There’s a sub-section of the Reform vote that is unwinnable for Labour but if they decide the whole lot are they deserve to get the pummelling they’ll get. Let’s also not forget that every sub-section of voters however you split them by age, values etc., consider immigration levels to be too high. Not sure the public can get much clearer on this

[sockwithaticket]

I think they mostly get their polling data from More In Common, but The News Agents were saying the other day that Labour loses far more voters to the Greens and Lib Dems than it does Reform or the Tories, so the cleave rightwards is utterly bonkers.

We also desperately need electoral reform. As Os says, first past the post is not fit for purpose. We're incredibly unlikely to get it. Labour still seem to see the last election as a validation of them and the system working in their favour when any fool can see it's a sandcastle parliamentary majority that's deeply unrepresentative of how the country actually votes (not unique to them, but theydid achieve a particularly low vote share relative to their number of seats).

[Yeeb]

It's not great but the "You're all thick and racist" approach doesn't work all that well either.

Many posters on here think that is an effective way of talking politics

Hal is correct though, it's not a debate which can be won by Labour and I would argue not a debate which can be won by the incumbent at all.

Lets take one of the things the UK government/Labour can control and made promises on (as opposed to a number the media often go with, the amount of people crossing the channel in small boats, which cannot be be controlled). That they would work to fix the asylum backlog and increase deportations of those without a right to be in the UK. Returns are now at their highest level since 2017, it's possible Labour are doing what they said they would do on this. The UK government has even released videos of deportation flights, basically as propaganda to show they're doing something.

But then comes the problem. It doesn't matter what Labour do. Those that see this as the key issue will always say it's not enough. If Labour over deliver on this: completely fix the UK asylum system ending the hotels, increase deportations, bring net migration back down to the 250k-300k per year it was when they were last in power. They will still be told by Frog Face that isn't good enough, he will say the country is being flooded regardless, he will say that he can do a much better job, Labour isn't listening and Labour is an enemy of the UK. You can write the Frog Face script on this years out, doesn't matter what the facts are.

Can’t agree with you there that the boats of pool shitters and rapey doctors and engineers , cannot be controlled .
Or preferably rammed or sunk.

[Slick]

Again though, Runcorn is a labour hold unless people who voted for them in 2024 decided to vote Reform. There’s a sub-section of the Reform vote that is unwinnable for Labour but if they decide the whole lot are they deserve to get the pummelling they’ll get. Let’s also not forget that every sub-section of voters however you split them by age, values etc., consider immigration levels to be too high. Not sure the public can get much clearer on this

This. Although there are still plenty on here as well that stare straight through it.

[Slick]

It's not great but the "You're all thick and racist" approach doesn't work all that well either.

Many posters on here think that is an effective way of talking politics

Hal is correct though, it's not a debate which can be won by Labour and I would argue not a debate which can be won by the incumbent at all.

Lets take one of the things the UK government/Labour can control and made promises on (as opposed to a number the media often go with, the amount of people crossing the channel in small boats, which cannot be be controlled). That they would work to fix the asylum backlog and increase deportations of those without a right to be in the UK. Returns are now at their highest level since 2017, it's possible Labour are doing what they said they would do on this. The UK government has even released videos of deportation flights, basically as propaganda to show they're doing something.

But then comes the problem. It doesn't matter what Labour do. Those that see this as the key issue will always say it's not enough. If Labour over deliver on this: completely fix the UK asylum system ending the hotels, increase deportations, bring net migration back down to the 250k-300k per year it was when they were last in power. They will still be told by Frog Face that isn't good enough, he will say the country is being flooded regardless, he will say that he can do a much better job, Labour isn't listening and Labour is an enemy of the UK. You can write the Frog Face script on this years out, doesn't matter what the facts are.

The boats and asylum seekers are just a very small sideshow. It's legal migration that can easily be controlled and has much larger numbers, but they avoid talking about that.

[salanya]

Another element is that Labour press relations/ public messaging is quite poor.

I can't stand Farage but he knows how to get media coverage and his messaging is simple and clear.

Whereas Labour's plan is vague, and where are the messengers? Is David Lammy still in post? We just checked who the defence minister was as we couldn't remember. Angela Rayner seems to be hidden away from cameras too.

People want honesty, and they want to know how politicians are working to improve the country and their lives.

[Paddington Bear]

Many posters on here think that is an effective way of talking politics

Hal is correct though, it's not a debate which can be won by Labour and I would argue not a debate which can be won by the incumbent at all.

Lets take one of the things the UK government/Labour can control and made promises on (as opposed to a number the media often go with, the amount of people crossing the channel in small boats, which cannot be be controlled). That they would work to fix the asylum backlog and increase deportations of those without a right to be in the UK. Returns are now at their highest level since 2017, it's possible Labour are doing what they said they would do on this. The UK government has even released videos of deportation flights, basically as propaganda to show they're doing something.

But then comes the problem. It doesn't matter what Labour do. Those that see this as the key issue will always say it's not enough. If Labour over deliver on this: completely fix the UK asylum system ending the hotels, increase deportations, bring net migration back down to the 250k-300k per year it was when they were last in power. They will still be told by Frog Face that isn't good enough, he will say the country is being flooded regardless, he will say that he can do a much better job, Labour isn't listening and Labour is an enemy of the UK. You can write the Frog Face script on this years out, doesn't matter what the facts are.

The boats and asylum seekers are just a very small sideshow. It's legal migration that can easily be controlled and has much larger numbers, but they avoid talking about that.

And this is the part of migration where since covid we’ve managed to bring in an awful lot of unproductive people, which is obvious and clearly visible to anyone with their eyes open and has holed a lot of the positive case for immigration below the waterline. The 2021 surge will be eligible for ILR and therefore benefits next year, so this problem is getting worse rather than better for Labour.

Labour also need to be wary of international events they have limited control over. They’ve already bled support over Gaza, it all kicking off in Kashmir will cause major issues for their voter base and likely open a few eyes to how different more recent arrivals from India are from the British Indian community

[lemonhead]

Another element is that Labour press relations/ public messaging is quite poor.

I can't stand Farage but he knows how to get media coverage and his messaging is simple and clear.

Whereas Labour's plan is vague, and where are the messengers? Is David Lammy still in post? We just checked who the defence minister was as we couldn't remember. Angela Rayner seems to be hidden away from cameras too.

People want honesty, and they want to know how politicians are working to improve the country and their lives.

What was the line from Dune again:

The people must learn how well I govern them. How would they know if we didn’t tell them?

There is more than a bit of truth to that.

[_Os_]

Again though, Runcorn is a labour hold unless people who voted for them in 2024 decided to vote Reform. There’s a sub-section of the Reform vote that is unwinnable for Labour but if they decide the whole lot are they deserve to get the pummelling they’ll get. Let’s also not forget that every sub-section of voters however you split them by age, values etc., consider immigration levels to be too high. Not sure the public can get much clearer on this

The thing is, Labour haven't done that, they've lent into those concerns and tried to retain those voters. It's the same strategy McSweeny used against the BNP (in a council that was basically a Labour one party area, not convinced that maps to a national electorate, but anyway). It's why Starmer hasn't really attacked Reform much (only on NHS privatisation) and has joked around with Frog Face during PMQs sometimes.

Labour are definitely not saying there's a racist element in Reform or that quite a bit of what they're coming out with is unicorn territory. That's not their strategy at all. Still lost Runcorn.

Back to McSweeny and his defeat of the BNP in a London council, which is what his reputation is built on. It had been and is a Labour council for donkeys. A perhaps better explanation of what happened there is BNP voters who opposed demographic change in their part of London (less white people), simply moved out and/or the BNP imploded not long after at a national level, ie both the party itself and the voters in that area ceased to exist independent of anything he did.

[Paddington Bear]

Again though, Runcorn is a labour hold unless people who voted for them in 2024 decided to vote Reform. There’s a sub-section of the Reform vote that is unwinnable for Labour but if they decide the whole lot are they deserve to get the pummelling they’ll get. Let’s also not forget that every sub-section of voters however you split them by age, values etc., consider immigration levels to be too high. Not sure the public can get much clearer on this

The thing is, Labour haven't done that, they've lent into those concerns and tried to retain those voters. It's the same strategy McSweeny used against the BNP (in a council that was basically a Labour one party area, not convinced that maps to a national electorate, but anyway). It's why Starmer hasn't really attacked Reform much (only on NHS privatisation) and has joked around with Frog Face during PMQs sometimes.

Labour are definitely not saying there's a racist element in Reform or that quite a bit of what they're coming out with is unicorn territory. That's not their strategy at all. Still lost Runcorn.

Back to McSweeny and his defeat of the BNP in a London council, which is what his reputation is built on. It had been and is a Labour council for donkeys. A perhaps better explanation of what happened there is BNP voters who opposed demographic change in their part of London (less white people), simply moved out and/or the BNP imploded not long after at a national level, ie both the party itself and the voters in that area ceased to exist independent of anything he did.

The BNP doubled their vote in Barking during McSweeney’s heroic stand against them, what happened is Barking went from being majority white British to minority in the same period. As you say, fewer white people was the deciding factor rather than any campaigning genius.

Labour will rely heavily on a minority vote if they want to win future elections, their issue is that a lot of Muslims are fuming with them over Gaza, Indians become more Tory with every year their family spend in Britain, and it’s increasingly hard to keep them in a coalition with Pakistanis. British Nigerians lean Tory and may well do to a stronger extent with Badenoch in charge. I’m not sure McSweeney’s Barking plan, to the extent that he had one, will work again

[_Os_]

Many posters on here think that is an effective way of talking politics

Hal is correct though, it's not a debate which can be won by Labour and I would argue not a debate which can be won by the incumbent at all.

Lets take one of the things the UK government/Labour can control and made promises on (as opposed to a number the media often go with, the amount of people crossing the channel in small boats, which cannot be be controlled). That they would work to fix the asylum backlog and increase deportations of those without a right to be in the UK. Returns are now at their highest level since 2017, it's possible Labour are doing what they said they would do on this. The UK government has even released videos of deportation flights, basically as propaganda to show they're doing something.

But then comes the problem. It doesn't matter what Labour do. Those that see this as the key issue will always say it's not enough. If Labour over deliver on this: completely fix the UK asylum system ending the hotels, increase deportations, bring net migration back down to the 250k-300k per year it was when they were last in power. They will still be told by Frog Face that isn't good enough, he will say the country is being flooded regardless, he will say that he can do a much better job, Labour isn't listening and Labour is an enemy of the UK. You can write the Frog Face script on this years out, doesn't matter what the facts are.

The boats and asylum seekers are just a very small sideshow. It's legal migration that can easily be controlled and has much larger numbers, but they avoid talking about that.

But that's exactly my point. What number is too high? Whatever number Labour can take it down to, Frog Face will say they have failed and he can do much better.

As I've posted before, the UK switched to a net immigration (more people arriving than leaving) country under Thatcher. The entire structure of the economy is now Thatcherite and premised on the free flow of labour, loose labour market, weak/no trade unions. Everyone's favourite Thatcherite thinktank, the IEA, is both pro-Brexit and pro-immigration (market driven, no limits, basically no border for people as with goods).

So you're correct, the government can change legal migration. But that means undoing an economic structure that is 40 years in the making. It means financing and restructuring both recruitment and training in the NHS, and the funding model of universities. A whole series of massive tasks that cannot be done in a single term of parliament (Labour could start doing it, but to last the Tories would have to not austerity whatever they put in place).

People know this too, as Paddington points out the polling on the macro question "migration yes or no?" is clear, but as soon as it is broken down into for example job categories "which category of jobs do you not want immigrants performing?" it switches to being positive on all of it.

Then after all that and whatever reduction in immigration, Frog Face will still say "look, the net migration figure is too high, we're being swamped, vote for me".

[Hal Jordan]

Another element is that Labour press relations/ public messaging is quite poor.

I can't stand Farage but he knows how to get media coverage and his messaging is simple and clear.

Whereas Labour's plan is vague, and where are the messengers? Is David Lammy still in post? We just checked who the defence minister was as we couldn't remember. Angela Rayner seems to be hidden away from cameras too.

People want honesty, and they want to know how politicians are working to improve the country and their lives.

Populism always goes across well, because it offers simple solutions for incredibly complex problems. People aren't stupid, but society is lazy and doesn't want to address issues with a long term, deep fix because it makes it uncomfortable and might cost them personally.

Populism always fails once it gains power, because it cannot make its solutions work without massive damage, either intentional or otherwise.

Environmental issues are ground zero for this, hence Starmer looking to spunk money on the utter sham that is carbon capture and storage, which is a magic bullet to allow us to do fuck all and keep burning stuff rather than do the hard and expensive bits of transitioning to a net zero position.

[_Os_]

Populism always fails once it gains power, because it cannot make its solutions work without massive damage, either intentional or otherwise.

Very often the 'solution' is also a turbo charged version of whatever caused the problem, the outcome being something very much worse. Which ironically/tragically opens the door to further potential populism.

Not hard to draw a line from the UK's deregulated financial sector pre-2008 and the impact the crash had on the UK, to austerity, to those same areas most hit by first the loss of industry and then austerity voting for Brexit, and now potentially Frog Face becoming PM.

Very obvious Frog Face is a turbo Thatcherite, he's going to make every problem the UK has worse. Same as Big Dog did, same as Truss did.

[Biffer]

Pandering to reform fucked the tories. Labour seem to have learnt nothing from that and are cheerily wandering down the same path.

[I like neeps]

Another element is that Labour press relations/ public messaging is quite poor.

I can't stand Farage but he knows how to get media coverage and his messaging is simple and clear.

Whereas Labour's plan is vague, and where are the messengers? Is David Lammy still in post? We just checked who the defence minister was as we couldn't remember. Angela Rayner seems to be hidden away from cameras too.

People want honesty, and they want to know how politicians are working to improve the country and their lives.

What was the line from Dune again:

The people must learn how well I govern them. How would they know if we didn’t tell them?

There is more than a bit of truth to that.

Labour are trying some fairly positive reforms that will take over a decade to improve the day to day so sadly won't happen because the Reform government won't see them through.

Their messaging is poor because they're aiming at Reform voters so there's hardly a coherent message.

[I like neeps]

I was actually a poll clerk yesterday at the council elections as I've always been curious about it (yes, I am a loser) and so few people vote it is a bit of a joke national debate centers on the results of complete disinterest or unawareness of the election anyway.

[Biffer]

There's a whole swathe of councils going to go absolutely tits up over the next five years with reform halfwits trying to be Elon musk at local level.

Expect many dead old people, abused kids, failed education and health facilities, absolute planning shit shows and roads to get even worse. While mates contracts end up everywhere.

[Hal Jordan]

Nicked from elsewhere, but a decent analysis, I feel.

But remember that Labour were voted in because people were sick of austerity and the very first thing they did, practically the day after, was to cut the winter fuel allowance. It basically sealed them as Red Tories. It wasn't the lies of Reform, or the media that did it, it was the Sensible Adults Back In Charge that did it to themselves. And they've continued in that vein, targeting the disabled, sick and trans people, ignoring sky high fuel prices and capitulating to the water companies.

And I keep banging this drum - they've trashed themselves in less than a year. And they are properly hated right now. No-one wanted them in the first place despite their genuine convictions that people did - this incarnation of Labour was always built on sand and it is fucked in under twelve months.

[Sandstorm]

Nicked from elsewhere, but a decent analysis, I feel.

But remember that Labour were voted in because people were sick of austerity and the very first thing they did, practically the day after, was to cut the winter fuel allowance. It basically sealed them as Red Tories. It wasn't the lies of Reform, or the media that did it, it was the Sensible Adults Back In Charge that did it to themselves. And they've continued in that vein, targeting the disabled, sick and trans people, ignoring sky high fuel prices and capitulating to the water companies.

And I keep banging this drum - they've trashed themselves in less than a year. And they are properly hated right now. No-one wanted them in the first place despite their genuine convictions that people did - this incarnation of Labour was always built on sand and it is fucked in under twelve months.

Spot on.

[Slick]

Nicked from elsewhere, but a decent analysis, I feel.

But remember that Labour were voted in because people were sick of austerity and the very first thing they did, practically the day after, was to cut the winter fuel allowance. It basically sealed them as Red Tories. It wasn't the lies of Reform, or the media that did it, it was the Sensible Adults Back In Charge that did it to themselves. And they've continued in that vein, targeting the disabled, sick and trans people, ignoring sky high fuel prices and capitulating to the water companies.

And I keep banging this drum - they've trashed themselves in less than a year. And they are properly hated right now. No-one wanted them in the first place despite their genuine convictions that people did - this incarnation of Labour was always built on sand and it is fucked in under twelve months.

What have they done to trans people?

[tabascoboy]

It's going to be "interesting times" for the councils that have seen a near complete change of councillors this time around. It's normal for sure to have new councillors elected who need mentoring from those with experience in their party but here we have something like 40 - 50 new councillors with little to no idea of council business and no existing party members to mentor them. The positions of Chair and "cabinet" will not be in continuation or handed over. There will be old school Tory believers who see this as restoring traditional Conservative values and those who have more "fringe" ideas, a period in which large numbers may be disgruntled wondering why they were not picked for the top jobs. Bored and dispirited rank and file members may start to cause trouble. Trying to tailor a budget that simply does not meet all requirements and needing to reduce or remove services that can't be paid for whilst realising that "stop the boats" isn't the answer to all local ills. Having to actually answer to constituents for decisions and grievances. They will have to oversee the coming changes to local governance and dismantling of the existing setup for new unitary authorities.

We had a pre-election promo leaflet from Reform that was clearly laid out for a national campaign with nothing at all otherwise that was in any way addressing local issues. Meanwhile the standing Green candidates who are very active and have good communications increased their share of the vote and were re-elected, but the minority parties now have absolutely no chance of winning votes on motions and little influence with 24 seats out of 80.

And somehow I don't think we'll hear much from the Reform leaders that first-past-the-post system is unfair for a while...

[Sandstorm]

Bin collection will be a hot topic budget item in a lot of towns across the country soon.

[tabascoboy]

Bin collection will be a hot topic budget item in a lot of towns across the country soon.

The current contract for ours is currently under review here, probably the first choice to be made is to re-tender for contractors or provide the service in-house.

[sockwithaticket]

Nicked from elsewhere, but a decent analysis, I feel.

But remember that Labour were voted in because people were sick of austerity and the very first thing they did, practically the day after, was to cut the winter fuel allowance. It basically sealed them as Red Tories. It wasn't the lies of Reform, or the media that did it, it was the Sensible Adults Back In Charge that did it to themselves. And they've continued in that vein, targeting the disabled, sick and trans people, ignoring sky high fuel prices and capitulating to the water companies.

And I keep banging this drum - they've trashed themselves in less than a year. And they are properly hated right now. No-one wanted them in the first place despite their genuine convictions that people did - this incarnation of Labour was always built on sand and it is fucked in under twelve months.

What have they done to trans people?

Certain people from either side of the trans issue have fixated on the recent Supreme Court ruling to a bizarre extent. My understanding of it is that the court were asked to clarify the intent behind terminology in a specifc act introduced by Cameron's government and reached the conclusion that woman and man were used to denote sex not gender in the act. At which point anti-Trans people have gone "See, they're not real women." with all the vindictive glee you'd expect from them and pro-Trans people have insisted they are women and that this judgement is a continuation of oppression. Trans men, as ever, are ignored in the rhetoric for some reason.

Labour are deemed by some to have gone beyond the recommendations of the Cass report on puberty blockers and some trans groups have issues with the Cass report in general.

'What is a woman?' was a question the right tried to use to bait Starmer a lot in the election run up and some considered his attempts to answer or evade answering to be less than full-throated support for trans peopl.

They have walked back from pre-electoral commitments to modernise the gender recognition act.

[SaintK]

Bin collection will be a hot topic budget item in a lot of towns across the country soon.

The current contract for ours is currently under review here, probably the first choice to be made is to re-tender for contractors or provide the service in-house.

Mine is in-house (borough council) and is pretty bloody good and reliable.
On the other hand the roads which are the County Council's responsibilty are an utter disgrace.

[Yeeb]

Always good to dip into this thread - Reform are far right, it’s Thatchers fault , and we are about to see poor services, abused kids etc for the first time now Reform have some councillors and one more MP



Never change, notPR

[sockwithaticket]

The other parties really aren't making enough noise about how treacherous and Trump aligned Farage is.

We've just seen in Canada and now Australia how populists who quite openly aligned themselves with Trump have been sunk by that association and they didn't spend half their time flying to the states trying (and failing) to get an audience with the man. Unsurprisingly, Trump polls incredibly badly over here and Nige's attempts to suck up to him really need to be put front and centre.

Also, Brits are pretty pro-Ukraine and anti-Russia, yet Farage's disgracefully pro-Russia comments on the conflict have escaped with minimal scrutiny. That needs to change. Drag that out into the light.

Not so easy with a right wing press who seem enthused by the prospect of Reform becoming a serious power, but it new media and social media exist. Labour's reluctance or inability to engage effectively with these communication platforms is hurting them.

Lastly, Labour need to remember that while they're losing some voters to Reform, they're losing more in a leftward direction to Lib Dems and the Greens. Reform primarily pick up from the Tories, the types of Tories who will never vote Labour. Pandering to them and not being openly hostile to Farage won't achieve anything for Labour electorally.

[Biffer]

The thing all these Reform wankers don't realise is that they nowhave legal responsibilities for a lot of the services provided by councils. They have to provide them. This isnt the USA, and they can't just strut about with dementia shouting at people to do random shit.

[_Os_]

Lastly, Labour need to remember that while they're losing some voters to Reform, they're losing more in a leftward direction to Lib Dems and the Greens. Reform primarily pick up from the Tories, the types of Tories who will never vote Labour. Pandering to them and not being openly hostile to Farage won't achieve anything for Labour electorally.

It's a dual strategy. They basically agree with the core Reform positions and even copy them, are nice to Frog Face (joke around in PMQs with him etc), then concentrate all attacks on the Tories. The first part of the strategy increases the likelihood of Tories switching to Reform, as Reform is being attacked less whilst the Tories are being attacked from all sides, that is obviously happening (could argue over if Labour are making any difference to that trend, I think they are). The second part of the strategy is that if Labour copy Reform then it makes Labour harder to attack and less likely to lose voters, this is where it falls down, the Reform position on immigration isn't about facts, Labour could do anything on immigration and it would never matter or be enough.

Which all means they're helping to grow Reform as a deliberate strategy, without having any means to defeat Reform. They're basically trusting the voters to see Frog Face as crazy and a threat (a Corbyn from the right).

What they should be doing is ignoring immigration as a topic and focusing on any good stuff they're doing. They don't have much of a good story to tell though. So they're coming out with "smash the gangs" style populist talking points focused on immigrants and trying to win an immigration argument using numbers and explanations focused on processes (ie facts), when none of that actually matters in the debate (as Yeeb says he wants the boats rammed and sunk, in other words the RN killing people as a deterrence). Those on the right who oppose Frog Face on the basis that to them he's a Commie are now talking about "re-migration", which means the forced deportation of British citizens who are not white to countries they aren't from. The idea this is a rational debate Labour can win if it agrees enough, is insane.

Boiled down that is the McSweeny position, "agree with everything the BNP say and then you win". Sounds like bollocks to me.

[Hal Jordan]

They've got a chap from Policy Exchange advising them behind the scenes. One of those "socially liberal, fiscally conservative" types ( )

The fact that immigants (even when it was the bears) dominate everything in the political sphere is just testimony to Farage's ability to steer the discourse. Why is it always the utter cunts that have this ability?

[Biffer]

Various reports knocking about jof Reform councillors who didn't expect or want to win, some in tears because their well paid jobs will suffer, by elections incoming in a few months