NPR

Biffer wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 11:02 am

SaintK wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 9:33 am The Tories may be scummy and sleazy but look like they're going to win Hartlepool quite convincingly
[media] [/media]

What's the deal with the two independent candidates? Looks like they've taken a slab of the Labour vote?

SaintK wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 11:13 am

Biffer wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 11:02 am

SaintK wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 9:33 am The Tories may be scummy and sleazy but look like they're going to win Hartlepool quite convincingly
[media] [/media]

What's the deal with the two independent candidates? Looks like they've taken a slab of the Labour vote?

They are former Labour candidates from elsewhere. Williams was foisted on Hartlepool by Labour HQ and not selected locally. As a senior NHS manager (now a local GP) he was partly responsible for a number of service cuts at the local hospital which isn't resonating too well. Add in the £millions the government are promising to invest locally in a Freeport and that will help as well

Lobby wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 11:23 am

SaintK wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 11:13 am

Biffer wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 11:02 am

What's the deal with the two independent candidates? Looks like they've taken a slab of the Labour vote?

They are former Labour candidates from elsewhere. Williams was foisted on Hartlepool by Labour HQ and not selected locally. As a senior NHS manager (now a local GP) he was partly responsible for a number of service cuts at the local hospital which isn't resonating too well. Add in the £millions the government are promising to invest locally in a Freeport and that will help as well

Williams is also a Canterbury born, Cambridge educated, ardent remainer. Probably not the best choice of candidate for an area that voted 70% for Brexit.

Slick wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 2:21 pm If true, thats an awful message from Amiss.

Slick wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 2:21 pm If true, thats an awful message from Amiss.

fishfoodie wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 3:59 pm

Slick wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 2:21 pm If true, thats an awful message from Amiss.

How can you doubt it ?, its true on its face.

Just look at how the, 'Town Deals' grants were allocated to Tory run towns, instead of by any rating of how needed they were.

The SNP pointed out how the Internal Markets Bill was rigged too; to take away responsibility from the devolved administrations, who had been able to distribute funds from the EU, & in future, Westminster would have sole control of any replacement funding.

fishfoodie wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 3:59 pm

Slick wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 2:21 pm If true, thats an awful message from Amiss.

How can you doubt it ?, its true on its face.

Just look at how the, 'Town Deals' grants were allocated to Tory run towns, instead of by any rating of how needed they were.

The SNP pointed out how the Internal Markets Bill was rigged too; to take away responsibility from the devolved administrations, who had been able to distribute funds from the EU, & in future, Westminster would have sole control of any replacement funding.

Slick wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 4:10 pm

fishfoodie wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 3:59 pm

Slick wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 2:21 pm If true, thats an awful message from Amiss.

How can you doubt it ?, its true on its face.

Just look at how the, 'Town Deals' grants were allocated to Tory run towns, instead of by any rating of how needed they were.

The SNP pointed out how the Internal Markets Bill was rigged too; to take away responsibility from the devolved administrations, who had been able to distribute funds from the EU, & in future, Westminster would have sole control of any replacement funding.

Because there is an awful lot of bullshit on social media? Your prerogative if you want to unquestionably accept it from one side but not from another I guess.

fishfoodie wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 3:59 pm

Slick wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 2:21 pm If true, thats an awful message from Amiss.

How can you doubt it ?, its true on its face.

Just look at how the, 'Town Deals' grants were allocated to Tory run towns, instead of by any rating of how needed they were.

The SNP pointed out how the Internal Markets Bill was rigged too; to take away responsibility from the devolved administrations, who had been able to distribute funds from the EU, & in future, Westminster would have sole control of any replacement funding.

SaintK wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 9:33 am The Tories may be scummy and sleazy but look like they're going to win Hartlepool quite convincingly
[media] [/media]

I like neeps wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 5:24 pm

SaintK wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 9:33 am The Tories may be scummy and sleazy but look like they're going to win Hartlepool quite convincingly
[media] [/media]

This is because sleaze and corruption don't matter. Most people don't care. If I'm a Tory MP I want to feather my best, nobody will give a f*ck.

Also Labour don't stand for anything. The Tories will win old home owning towns and they make up Britain. Hartlepool majority white, majority Brexit, majority homeowners, majority 40+. Draw a Tory seat and you'll draw that.

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 6:11 pm

I like neeps wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 5:24 pm

SaintK wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 9:33 am The Tories may be scummy and sleazy but look like they're going to win Hartlepool quite convincingly
[media] [/media]

This is because sleaze and corruption don't matter. Most people don't care. If I'm a Tory MP I want to feather my best, nobody will give a f*ck.
m
Also Labour don't stand for anything. The Tories will win old home owning towns and they make up Britain. Hartlepool majority white, majority Brexit, majority homeowners, majority 40+. Draw a Tory seat and you'll draw that.

How many seats are not majority white? Seems a weird criteria in a country that's 80%+ white.

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 6:11 pm

I like neeps wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 5:24 pm

SaintK wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 9:33 am The Tories may be scummy and sleazy but look like they're going to win Hartlepool quite convincingly
[media] [/media]

This is because sleaze and corruption don't matter. Most people don't care. If I'm a Tory MP I want to feather my best, nobody will give a f*ck.

Also Labour don't stand for anything. The Tories will win old home owning towns and they make up Britain. Hartlepool majority white, majority Brexit, majority homeowners, majority 40+. Draw a Tory seat and you'll draw that.

How many seats are not majority white? Seems a weird criteria in a country that's 80%+ white.

I like neeps wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 7:35 pm

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 6:11 pm

I like neeps wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 5:24 pm

This is because sleaze and corruption don't matter. Most people don't care. If I'm a Tory MP I want to feather my best, nobody will give a f*ck.

Also Labour don't stand for anything. The Tories will win old home owning towns and they make up Britain. Hartlepool majority white, majority Brexit, majority homeowners, majority 40+. Draw a Tory seat and you'll draw that.

How many seats are not majority white? Seems a weird criteria in a country that's 80%+ white.

And the majority of the seats are Tory!

It's a good point so seats that are 80%+ white population. Hartlepool is 98% white, Brexit voting and I am going to guess average age is above 40 and home ownership rates are high. That's a Tory seat these days.

robmatic wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 6:36 am

I like neeps wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 7:35 pm

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 6:11 pm

How many seats are not majority white? Seems a weird criteria in a country that's 80%+ white.

And the majority of the seats are Tory!

It's a good point so seats that are 80%+ white population. Hartlepool is 98% white, Brexit voting and I am going to guess average age is above 40 and home ownership rates are high. That's a Tory seat these days.

So when the UK in general is 80%+ white, has an average age of over 40 and a home-ownership rate of 65% it's no wonder the Tories are electorally successful.

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 7:30 am

robmatic wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 6:36 am

I like neeps wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 7:35 pm

And the majority of the seats are Tory!

It's a good point so seats that are 80%+ white population. Hartlepool is 98% white, Brexit voting and I am going to guess average age is above 40 and home ownership rates are high. That's a Tory seat these days.

So when the UK in general is 80%+ white, has an average age of over 40 and a home-ownership rate of 65% it's no wonder the Tories are electorally successful.

For contrast, Scotland is 96% white, median age of 40.1 years, over 60% owner-occupied housing.

The people voted against Brexit in every constituency and the Tories struggle to fill a taxi

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 7:30 am

robmatic wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 6:36 am

I like neeps wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 7:35 pm

And the majority of the seats are Tory!

It's a good point so seats that are 80%+ white population. Hartlepool is 98% white, Brexit voting and I am going to guess average age is above 40 and home ownership rates are high. That's a Tory seat these days.

So when the UK in general is 80%+ white, has an average age of over 40 and a home-ownership rate of 65% it's no wonder the Tories are electorally successful.

For contrast, Scotland is 96% white, median age of 40.1 years, over 60% owner-occupied housing.

The people voted against Brexit in every constituency and the Tories struggle to fill a taxi

robmatic wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 9:56 am

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 7:30 am

robmatic wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 6:36 am

So when the UK in general is 80%+ white, has an average age of over 40 and a home-ownership rate of 65% it's no wonder the Tories are electorally successful.

For contrast, Scotland is 96% white, median age of 40.1 years, over 60% owner-occupied housing.

The people voted against Brexit in every constituency and the Tories struggle to fill a taxi

I certainly don't think we should conclude that white older homeowners will gravitate automatically towards the Tories.

I like neeps wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 9:59 am

robmatic wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 9:56 am

Tichtheid wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 7:30 am


For contrast, Scotland is 96% white, median age of 40.1 years, over 60% owner-occupied housing.

The people voted against Brexit in every constituency and the Tories struggle to fill a taxi

I certainly don't think we should conclude that white older homeowners will gravitate automatically towards the Tories.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/ge ... he-result/

It is true though, in England anyway.

If you want to predict how a constituency in England will vote look at at age and look at home ownership. If they're high - Tory, if they're low - labour.

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 10:04 am Well, at least the Tories aren't sustaining an artificially high house price bubble and risking future disaster in order to keep their base happy, eh? Eh? Oh.

robmatic wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 10:34 am

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 10:04 am Well, at least the Tories aren't sustaining an artificially high house price bubble and risking future disaster in order to keep their base happy, eh? Eh? Oh.

You are not wrong but high house prices have cross party appeal.

robmatic wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 10:33 am

I like neeps wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 9:59 am

robmatic wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 9:56 am

I certainly don't think we should conclude that white older homeowners will gravitate automatically towards the Tories.

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/ge ... he-result/

It is true though, in England anyway.

If you want to predict how a constituency in England will vote look at at age and look at home ownership. If they're high - Tory, if they're low - labour.

New Labour were able to capture at least some of those votes.

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 10:48 am

robmatic wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 10:34 am

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 10:04 am Well, at least the Tories aren't sustaining an artificially high house price bubble and risking future disaster in order to keep their base happy, eh? Eh? Oh.

You are not wrong but high house prices have cross party appeal.

For homeowners. Who are more likely to be Tory. And for people in the housing market, landlords, property developers - who are overwhelmingly likely to be Tory.

robmatic wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 11:04 am

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 10:48 am

robmatic wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 10:34 am

You are not wrong but high house prices have cross party appeal.

For homeowners. Who are more likely to be Tory. And for people in the housing market, landlords, property developers - who are overwhelmingly likely to be Tory.

I don't know if you remember the housing market in the early Noughties but it was bonkers (10%-20% increases every year) and that was entirely a Labour project.

I like neeps wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 11:00 am

robmatic wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 10:33 am

I like neeps wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 9:59 am

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/ge ... he-result/

It is true though, in England anyway.

If you want to predict how a constituency in England will vote look at at age and look at home ownership. If they're high - Tory, if they're low - labour.

New Labour were able to capture at least some of those votes.

Yes and the financial crisis, rise of technology/rampant globalisation and Brexit happened and then politics totally changed.

The conservatives these days claim to be quite interventionist economically and all about levelling up the north etc etc and right wing culture war-y focus on the identity and community politics they want and clean up. That gets them the old New Labour voters. Labour as we can see from Starmer can't compete on patriotism and don't have a clear economic policy that is much different to what the Tories are saying because they're mostly offering the same thing now.

Labour will start losing their young graduate core to the Greens.

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 11:03 am Does levelling up the North mean anything yet? Or is it still just a catchphrase, like "dead in a ditch"?

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 11:09 am

robmatic wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 11:04 am

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 10:48 am

For homeowners. Who are more likely to be Tory. And for people in the housing market, landlords, property developers - who are overwhelmingly likely to be Tory.

I don't know if you remember the housing market in the early Noughties but it was bonkers (10%-20% increases every year) and that was entirely a Labour project.

I'm not talking about 20 years ago. I'm talking about now. Home ownership has dropped quite a bit in that time. And I'm not sure we can say it was entirely a Labour project, given what we know about the mortgage market, how it was driven, and why it crashed.

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Wed May 05, 2021 11:03 am Does levelling up the North mean anything yet? Or is it still just a catchphrase, like "dead in a ditch"?

sturginho wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 10:45 am Election day today, don't forget to put an x next to your local tory

I like neeps wrote: ↑Thu May 06, 2021 8:22 am https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/bad ... ssion=true

Actually quite a good article in the Speccie about the quite frankly ridiculous childcare costs in the UK. When children, houses and rent are so expensive no wonder people aren't having kids.

I like neeps wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 5:24 pm

SaintK wrote: ↑Tue May 04, 2021 9:33 am The Tories may be scummy and sleazy but look like they're going to win Hartlepool quite convincingly
[media] [/media]

This is because sleaze and corruption don't matter. Most people don't care. If I'm a Tory MP I want to feather my best, nobody will give a f*ck.

Also Labour don't stand for anything. The Tories will win old home owning towns and they make up Britain. Hartlepool majority white, majority Brexit, majority homeowners, majority 40+. Draw a Tory seat and you'll draw that.