The Brexit Thread

[sockwithaticket]

You're creating an argument no one's making?

It's not a reason Brexit happened, but farmers having their cheap labour taken away from them a as a result of Brexit and an inability to replicate that workforce with people from the UK for the same remuneration has brought forward something that's been a long brewing issue.

[sockwithaticket]

I doubt you'd find many Brexiters agreeing with me that food has been cheaper than it should be for too long. Conversely the suppression of an essential like food costs has allowed costs on other, less essential goods to remain higher than they would otherwise be. It's something that would need to be resolved sooner or later anyway, but Brexit really has forced the issue by taking away a labour pool that allowed parts of the industry to keep their costs down and accommodate the margin squeezing of their buyers (super markets).

As if it needed re-stating, there are no benefits to Brexit except for those whose wealth is not in any way tied to Britain maintaining its previous economic footing.

I would.

There's hope for you yet, OS

[GogLais]

Spidey senses tell me they're unlikely to re-train and apply for the new "Brexit Opportunities Unit" Director role.

"That worked great for everybody" also translates to, "we didn't have to adapt our business model to pay wages that make sense for UK workers when we could bring in Europeans from outside the Eurozone who'd live in barely acceptable conditions for a short period to take home an amount that was cheap for us, but decent for them".

A few weeks or months of low paid temp work in out of the way locations just isn't viable for most domestic workers. If you want them to come something has to be done about the financing, whether that's government subsidy or taking a stand with supermarkets to insist on a price that better reflects the costs of growing and picking produce, their ideal pricepoints be damned. Alternatively, whinge until an exemption is made for to get the cheaper labour back.

The Leaver expectation (I take them at their word) was that all the people who’d had their jobs stolen by immigrants would come flooding back to the fields. I can’t imagine that there will be either be a subsidy or a relaxation of immigration. In theory it can be left to the labour market to do its thing but I suspect that there just isn’t the willingness to do this sort of work. It’s a bit like coal mining but without the danger.

[Insane_Homer]

You're creating an argument no one's making?

...many Brexiters agreeing...

Struggling to think why else it would be limited to Brexit supports only.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics ... ng-ecomony

‘Shoppers to enjoy Brexit price cuts as farming rethink brings cheap food’

FOOD prices will tumble after Brexit making supermarket shopping more affordable for millions, families were promised last night.

But of course you, and many Brexiters apparently agree, were not duped by that and knew exactly what you were voting for...

[tabascoboy]

The Leaver expectation (I take them at their word) was that all the people who’d had their jobs stolen by immigrants would come flooding back to the fields. I can’t imagine that there will be either be a subsidy or a relaxation of immigration. In theory it can be left to the labour market to do its thing but I suspect that there just isn’t the willingness to do this sort of work. It’s a bit like coal mining but without the danger.

Or we could "incentivise" the unemployed by rounding them up and forcing them to live 24 to a camper van, working 16 hours a day out in the fields for below minimum wage while taking back much of that as "rent" on pain of a beating if they don't comply. A bit like the gang run trafficking we had before but without foreigners.

[sockwithaticket]

You're creating an argument no one's making?

...many Brexiters agreeing...

Struggling to think why else it would be limited to Brexit supports only.

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics ... ng-ecomony

‘Shoppers to enjoy Brexit price cuts as farming rethink brings cheap food’

FOOD prices will tumble after Brexit making supermarket shopping more affordable for millions, families were promised last night.

But of course you, and many Brexiters apparently agree, were not duped by that and knew exactly what you were voting for...

So, I said I don't think you'd find many Brexit supporters agreeing with me that food prices have been too low and don't reflect production costs to which you throw up a link stating that a Brexit promise was prices would get even lower. I really don't understand what point you think you're making?

I've never thought food prices would get cheaper post-Brexit for a host of reasons, one of which is it would create the exact situation we have now - the cheap labour which sustained prices at their low level would disappear and making up that labour gap from UK workers would increase production costs that would inevitably get passed onto consumers.


I voted remain, wanted a second referendum and have voted Lib Dem at every possible opportunity...

[Insane_Homer]

So, I said I don't think you'd find many Brexit supporters agreeing with me that food prices have been too low and don't reflect production costs to which you throw up a link stating that a Brexit promise was prices would get even lower. I really don't understand what point you think you're making?

I've never thought food prices would get cheaper post-Brexit for a host of reasons, one of which is it would create the exact situation we have now - the cheap labour which sustained prices at their low level would disappear and making up that labour gap from UK workers would increase production costs that would inevitably get passed onto consumers.


I voted remain, wanted a second referendum and have voted Lib Dem at every possible opportunity...

Apologies, I incorrectly presumed leanings.

[sturginho]

So, I said I don't think you'd find many Brexit supporters agreeing with me that food prices have been too low and don't reflect production costs to which you throw up a link stating that a Brexit promise was prices would get even lower. I really don't understand what point you think you're making?

I've never thought food prices would get cheaper post-Brexit for a host of reasons, one of which is it would create the exact situation we have now - the cheap labour which sustained prices at their low level would disappear and making up that labour gap from UK workers would increase production costs that would inevitably get passed onto consumers.


I voted remain, wanted a second referendum and have voted Lib Dem at every possible opportunity...

Apologies, I incorrectly presumed leanings.

I admit, the "reckoning" comment threw me as well, but he did later say that there are no benefits to brexit :)

[Insane_Homer]

[robmatic]

Spidey senses tell me they're unlikely to re-train and apply for the new "Brexit Opportunities Unit" Director role.

"That worked great for everybody" also translates to, "we didn't have to adapt our business model to pay wages that make sense for UK workers when we could bring in Europeans from outside the Eurozone who'd live in barely acceptable conditions for a short period to take home an amount that was cheap for us, but decent for them".

A few weeks or months of low paid temp work in out of the way locations just isn't viable for most domestic workers. If you want them to come something has to be done about the financing, whether that's government subsidy or taking a stand with supermarkets to insist on a price that better reflects the costs of growing and picking produce, their ideal pricepoints be damned. Alternatively, whinge until an exemption is made for to get the cheaper labour back.

The Leaver expectation (I take them at their word) was that all the people who’d had their jobs stolen by immigrants would come flooding back to the fields. I can’t imagine that there will be either be a subsidy or a relaxation of immigration. In theory it can be left to the labour market to do its thing but I suspect that there just isn’t the willingness to do this sort of work. It’s a bit like coal mining but without the danger.

My folks have a dairy and sheep farm in the Yorkshire Dales and it's just really difficult to find people willing to do dirty manual labour with irregular hours. Much of this is cultural, because people grow up and live in towns, and this factor is a sticky one that won't necessarily be easily fixed by raising wages, even if there were sufficient income to do this. At some level it would obviously help though.

Ideally you would be able to raise wages in the agricultural sector and this would cleanly feed through to consumers who would be happy to pay the extra, but in reality over 80% of the grocery market in the UK is supplied through a small handful of supermarkets that compete on price and have complete market power over producers. We will probably just see standards being lowered, farms being consolidated and further industrialisation of the sector and the landscape.

[Tichtheid]

Farming's always relied on itinerant workers, it's the same all over Europe, I built fencing on farms in the Pyrenees, one job was on was monastery land and we also had to fence-off cork plantation there. The cork was harvested by Portuguese gypsies who specialised in this, working their way north from Portugal through Span and into France with the season.

Scottish farms long had travellers working two seasons, though that has become much lessened.

I used to go back to Scotland over the Christmas period and I'd pick up the odd day working in the woods or in a field - if you want to see black comedy it's when the dole would pull up in a car at the side of the field for a spot check and about half of the people working in it would sprint off in the opposite direction

[Insane_Homer]

https://www.nationwideproduce.com/good- ... ng-dumped/

Perfectly good graded and packed fresh produce is being dumped

A shocking headline….but true. The acute shortage of HGV drivers is now the direct cause of perfectly good, graded and packed fresh produce being dumped or rotting in cold stores, waiting for wheels to go under it. Supermarket shelves and restaurant plates are going empty – this is a crisis of national importance. In all my years in fresh produce I’ve never seen anything like this. Example – we supply one of the largest restaurant chains in the UK. It goes without saying how much they’ve suffered throughout the pandemic. However, business is booming for them at the moment. On Sunday, our guy who handles their account received a call from our haulier at 1pm to say that due to a shortage of lorry drivers, they cannot deliver anything to any of the depots for our restaurant customer that evening. We reminded them that all the goods were graded and packed and ready to go. They said they simply could not deliver due to a lack of drivers. After hours of begging and pleading we managed to get them to deliver to one of the eight depots. And we were one of a number of suppliers to the restaurant chain that the haulier was breaking the same bad news to. The restaurant chain went drastically short of fresh produce this weekend. And this is by no means an isolated incident. It’s happening throughout the industry, every day and across all sectors. I heard of one major supermarket chain which had 22 full loads of produce not delivered this weekend due to the shortage of drivers. Goods are being produced….but not delivered.

Our haulier I refer to above has been one of our main hauliers for many years. And yet despite this I hold no grudge. Quite the opposite, I feel for them and have urged our guys to work with them to sort through such issues as it wasn’t the first and won’t be the last. In fairness to them, they’ve been warning us about this for a long time but we’re now starting to feel the painful reality of this long-predicted shortage of drivers. So how did it come to this? One of our hauliers summed it up perfectly in a recent email:

• BREXIT
o Large proportion of drivers in UK are foreign nationals from European countries which have returned to the EU.

o Government failure to add LGV drivers to the skilled labour list, means any new drivers from EU require immigration paperwork – new barrier to entry.

• COVID
o No test of new drivers has taken place for over 12 months which is the equivalent of 20,000 new drivers.

o No potential new drivers have been trained for over 12 months due to COVID social distance rules.

• IR35
o Changes to the taxation rules of self-employed drivers has seen a sharp decline in those drivers as many were foreign nationals who have returned home.

o This change has seen a 25% increase in Agency driver costs. This is a massive on-cost considering that Transport companies drivers are around 40% of their costs.

• Ageing UK driver force

o 13% of the industry’s UK drivers are over 60, compared to only 1% under 25.

• Rise in driver wages – as companies fight to retain drivers, wages are sharply rising and already this year-to-date wages have increased by circa 10%. Again, this is a massive on-cost where this represents 40% of an operators costs.

So how can we deal with this crisis? There’s no quick fix. For example, when schools/universities break up for summer soon we should see a much-needed boost in staff availability, particularly for the hospitality sector. But while it may take a matter of hours to train a waiter, it takes a lot more time and money to train a lorry driver. The quickest fix would be government intervention to change the tax rules, add drivers to the migrant skilled labour list etc. That sounds like a long-shot but MI5’s maxim is that society is only ever “four meals away from anarchy”. Perhaps empty shelves and plates will be the wake-up call the government needs to deal with this crisis. If not that, perhaps a spike in fresh produce prices as the industry is forced to pass on the huge increase in all labour costs to the consumer. Or perhaps a spike in business failures of fresh produce SMEs. It concerns me the amount of our smaller customers who have been on to us this week asking for help because their hauliers have simply abandoned them. It’s a genuine existential threat for them as they are left struggling to find anyone to deliver their goods to their customers. I’ve just had an email chat with the owner of one of the largest hauliers in the country and he said “we have to highlight this at the most senior level – it doesn’t stop with produce and food generally, it’s worse in other sectors – and the rate of escalation of this situation is truly staggering…..first sign of shortage April 17th – now it’s a national crisis and still escalating.”

I would urge all suppliers in the industry to work with hauliers and customers to get us through this crisis. I heard of one supermarket who stuck to their rules rigorously last week and rejected lorries for being literally minutes late. They are now in crisis talks with two major hauliers who are seriously threatening to stop carrying goods for them or any of their suppliers. I would urge you not to shout at your hauliers and threaten them with bills, that will get you nowhere – work with them to find solutions. Customers will have to be far more flexible on delivery times. We also need to stop hauling fresh air around the country. Full pallets and full loads are what we need in a crisis like this. Customers need to work with us to stagger orders and reduce the number of deliveries to ensure full pallets and loads. We also need to see customers being more flexible on date codes to allow direct deliveries from abroad. I’m sure this will eventually lead us all to adopt better practices but for now we need to work together to find a way through this crisis.

Regards,

[robmatic]

I used to go back to Scotland over the Christmas period and I'd pick up the odd day working in the woods or in a field - if you want to see black comedy it's when the dole would pull up in a car at the side of the field for a spot check and about half of the people working in it would sprint off in the opposite direction

I think one issue is that we have a benefits system that doesn't easily facilitate seasonal or irregular working.

[SaintK]

13% of the industry’s UK drivers are over 60, compared to only 1% under 25.
Rise in driver wages – as companies fight to retain drivers, wages are sharply rising and already this year-to-date wages have increased by circa 10%. Again, this is a massive on-cost where this represents 40% of an operators costs.

Mate of mine who retired as an owner operator doing freelance and sub contract haulage work some years ago to set up another business has gone back to agency driving and is earning a fortune. Can pick and choose what he wants to do with no hassle!

[tabascoboy]

Even the waste/recycling services being affected here now by a shortage of drivers; they are 5 days behind the schedule and residents being advised not to put bins out until further notice.

[Line6 HXFX]

I used to go back to Scotland over the Christmas period and I'd pick up the odd day working in the woods or in a field - if you want to see black comedy it's when the dole would pull up in a car at the side of the field for a spot check and about half of the people working in it would sprint off in the opposite direction

I think one issue is that we have a benefits system that doesn't easily facilitate seasonal or irregular working.

If you say have 4 months of work, and presuming you don't live in a tent and are still having to then pay rent and bills, and pay for travel, that will take up all your wages, and then you have to wait for 5weeks after the picking jobs dry up to get any benefits at all (25% of people have to wait at least 12 weeks).

Why would anyone voluntarily go off benefits to pick fruit? It would be utterrly suicidal.

The job centre would basically have to force them to give up their social housing and all their possessions, and live in a tent (Tory MPs are actually suggesting this), like they are convicts doing hard labour.
Now we are out of Europe, and the unemployed have zero human rights protections, I have little doubt this is going to happen.

[Glaston]

You're creating an argument no one's making?

It's not a reason Brexit happened, but farmers having their cheap labour taken away from them a as a result of Brexit and an inability to replicate that workforce with people from the UK for the same remuneration has brought forward something that's been a long brewing issue.

When I was in farming, the imported labour I came across was from non EU countries.
Russians for picking and Philipinos to milk cows.
The Russian fell foul of EU rules, dont know what happened to the Philipinos.

This was 20 + years ago.

The whole Picking gang thing in parts of E Anglia was pretty bad and needed sorting out.

Its not much different with temporary labour in factories. The Polish/East European run employment agencies are not beacons of employment rights.


If there are 5.6million EU citizens applying for residency and there are still labour shortages because so many went home, how many were actually here in the first place?

[Glaston]

Even the waste/recycling services being affected here now by a shortage of drivers; they are 5 days behind the schedule and residents being advised not to put bins out until further notice.

Thats down to the multitude of separate bins.

[tabascoboy]

Even the waste/recycling services being affected here now by a shortage of drivers; they are 5 days behind the schedule and residents being advised not to put bins out until further notice.

Thats down to the multitude of separate bins.

Here it's specifically down to the contracted service provider not being able to deliver the agreement on the contract because...shortage of drivers.

Our apologies but waste collections are being hit by the national shortage of HGV drivers. To help the catch up with the backlog, we are have suspended green bin and box collections from Monday 21 June til Monday 12 July

[Insane_Homer]

Roaming charges are back

[fishfoodie]

Even the waste/recycling services being affected here now by a shortage of drivers; they are 5 days behind the schedule and residents being advised not to put bins out until further notice.

Thats down to the multitude of separate bins.

Here it's specifically down to the contracted service provider not being able to deliver the agreement on the contract because...shortage of drivers.

Our apologies but waste collections are being hit by the national shortage of HGV drivers. To help the catch up with the backlog, we are have suspended green bin and box collections from Monday 21 June til Monday 12 July

Makes sense; I'll bet the delivery firms are bidding on anyone with HGV license; & the waste companies, are bottom of the pile, when it comes to wages & conditions.

It'll get really interesting when the autumn & harvest comes around; & the HGV guys are in massive demand, for time dependent deliveries & there's no improvement in the situation. A lot of arable farmers could go to the wall, if the summer continues in the same damp, cold way; & then they have a hard time getting the crops milled in good time.

[tabascoboy]

This may well be an exaggeration, but it'll probably take something extreme to drag our leadership away from far more important matters like promoting patriotic songs and pictures of the queen for every home

'We're weeks away from gaps on the shelves': Business leaders issue stark warning to PM over food shortages

Companies have been raising concerns about driver shortages with government for several weeks but are concerned that “there is no immediate plan”.

[fishfoodie]

This may well be an exaggeration, but it'll probably take something extreme to drag our leadership away from far more important matters like promoting patriotic songs and pictures of the queen for every home

'We're weeks away from gaps on the shelves': Business leaders issue stark warning to PM over food shortages

Companies have been raising concerns about driver shortages with government for several weeks but are concerned that “there is no immediate plan”.

It's to be expected; guess what; while businesses were closed; they weren't needing regular supplies of goods, to replace those sold; & now you're re-opening; & all of a sudden, shops need their early morning deliveries ... and there just aren't enough trucks to go around.

[Zig]

Just give everyone with an Arts degree a HGV licence. Problem solved.

[sturginho]

I've driven thousands of miles on ETS2, can I get a licence?

[Insane_Homer]

[Insane_Homer]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/annu ... -jd7llrtb6

Annual £7.5bn cost of EU trade as bad for business as no-deal Brexit

[Insane_Homer]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... vid-brexit

Lorry driver shortage: UK government and retailers in emergency talks

Defra looks for solutions as Covid and Brexit problems threaten to leave gaps on supermarket shelves

[fishfoodie]

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... vid-brexit

Lorry driver shortage: UK government and retailers in emergency talks

Defra looks for solutions as Covid and Brexit problems threaten to leave gaps on supermarket shelves

"Can you nip down the hall, & tell the Home Secretary to stop being a cunt ?"

"Nope"

"Oh well; it was worth a try. Do you know any unemployed HGV Drivers ?"

[fishfoodie]

A Judge in NI threw out the DUP & other loons claim that the Northern Ireland Protocol was unlawful, because it conflicts with the 1800 Act of Union.

The Northern Ireland Protocol is lawful, a High Court judge in Belfast has ruled.

A group of unionist politicians, including Arlene Foster and Lord Trimble, had challenged the protocol in judicial review proceedings.

They claimed it was unlawful because it conflicts with the 1998 Good Friday Agreement and the Acts of Union.

But Mr Justice Colton rejected their challenge on all grounds on Wednesday afternoon.

Mr Colton found that the Withdrawal Agreement Act, which includes the protocol, does conflict with the 1800 Acts of Union in respect of free trade between Britain and Northern Ireland.

However, he added that the relevant parts of the Acts of Union are "impliedly repealed" by the Withdrawal Agreement Act.

So it turns out that the; "Conservative & Unionist Party", voted to override the Act of Union, as far as NI is concerned !

I bet the SNP wish the same applied to them !!

[Insane_Homer]

[Insane_Homer]

https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak- ... d-12346196

Rishi Sunak says financial services deal with EU 'has not happened'

Britain's attempt to reach a post-Brexit financial services deal with the EU "has not happened", Rishi Sunak has told the City.

The sector was not covered in the UK's last-minute free trade agreement when the Brexit transition period ended in December and the government has since been seeking an "equivalence" arrangement with the bloc.

But in the chancellor's traditional Mansion House speech to the City, Mr Sunak said: "That has not happened.

[fishfoodie]

https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak- ... d-12346196

Rishi Sunak says financial services deal with EU 'has not happened'

Britain's attempt to reach a post-Brexit financial services deal with the EU "has not happened", Rishi Sunak has told the City.

The sector was not covered in the UK's last-minute free trade agreement when the Brexit transition period ended in December and the government has since been seeking an "equivalence" arrangement with the bloc.

But in the chancellor's traditional Mansion House speech to the City, Mr Sunak said: "That has not happened.

Nissan announcement day is very useful, isn't it ?

The date for the conclusion of talks on a services deal was always known to be the end of June.

But Hey; services is only 80% of the UK Economy.

[tc27]

Well (and speaking as someone who voted remain) the Remain narrative was that Nissan would close if Brexit happens when in fact its investing more and adding jobs. You can add all kinds of caveats and parses to this narrative but most people will simply view that way.

There may well be less lucrative jobs in the City than in a Remain alternative timeline but its also true there's being no huge net losses in jobs or collapses in tax revenue.

[Insane_Homer]

https://news.sky.com/story/rishi-sunak- ... d-12346196

Rishi Sunak says financial services deal with EU 'has not happened'

Britain's attempt to reach a post-Brexit financial services deal with the EU "has not happened", Rishi Sunak has told the City.

The sector was not covered in the UK's last-minute free trade agreement when the Brexit transition period ended in December and the government has since been seeking an "equivalence" arrangement with the bloc.

But in the chancellor's traditional Mansion House speech to the City, Mr Sunak said: "That has not happened.

Nissan announcement day is very useful, isn't it ?

The date for the conclusion of talks on a services deal was always known to be the end of June.

But Hey; services is only 80% of the UK Economy.

Yeah but NISSAN!!!!!*

*(full extent of Govt ***bribes*** to be leaked at a later date)

[fishfoodie]

Well (and speaking as someone who voted remain) the Remain narrative was that Nissan would close if Brexit happens when in fact its investing more and adding jobs. You can add all kinds of caveats and parses to this narrative but most people will simply view that way.

There may well be less lucrative jobs in the City than in a Remain alternative timeline but its also true there's being no huge net losses in jobs or collapses in tax revenue.

Has anyone yet seen the details of the deal that May's Government did with Nissan, after they threatened to pull out, after the vote ?????

Does anyone know if this is Nissan's money; or the UK taxpayers ?

[tc27]

PS even if the government gave Nissan a subsidy its probably peanuts in Government spending terms and politically an absolute bargain (and getting a slice of the EV/battery market makes long term strategic sense).

Its also something every government does as far as its allowed - Tesla is rumoured to be getting $1.2 billion in effective subsidies in Germany.

[fishfoodie]

PS even if the government gave Nissan a subsidy its probably peanuts in Government spending terms and politically an absolute bargain (and getting a slice of the EV/battery market makes long term strategic sense).

Its also something every government does as far as its allowed - Tesla is rumoured to be getting $1.2 billion in effective subsidies in Germany.

It may be a bargain; but without transparency, whose to say ?

It might also be a massive liability; & if the subsidy breaks state aid rules, it'll be something the US & everyone else will fasten onto, & the batteries being made in the factory could end up with punitive tariffs put on them, so they're unsaleable outside the UK.

[SaintK]

PS even if the government gave Nissan a subsidy its probably peanuts in Government spending terms and politically an absolute bargain (and getting a slice of the EV/battery market makes long term strategic sense).

Its also something every government does as far as its allowed - Tesla is rumoured to be getting $1.2 billion in effective subsidies in Germany.

It may be a bargain; but without transparency, whose to say ?

It might also be a massive liability; & if the subsidy breaks state aid rules, it'll be something the US & everyone else will fasten onto, & the batteries being made in the factory could end up with punitive tariffs put on them, so they're unsaleable outside the UK.

Unconfirmed reports already saying £100m plus!!

[Kawazaki]

effective subsidies in Germany.

Germans ignoring EU rules when it serves German self interest?

Surely they wouldn't would they?