NPR

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 8:43 am

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Wed Sep 30, 2020 4:20 pm

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Wed Sep 30, 2020 1:05 pm no correlation, as there's no second wave

There’s no second wave on the figures you’ve produced .....

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:08 am Please stop doing this. You're actively damaging "our" side of the argument.

Margin__Walker wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:07 am That's a bloody stupid graph with no context tbf

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:19 am

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:08 am Please stop doing this. You're actively damaging "our" side of the argument.

Showing government released data or predicting what is going to say before he says it?

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:24 am You're making his arguments easy for him. At the very least, add some fucking words so you can make some kind of point beyond "here is a graph, you can decide what I'm trying to say" particularly when it's a graph that is fairly misleading in one very core way.

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:29 am

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:24 am You're making his arguments easy for him. At the very least, add some fucking words so you can make some kind of point beyond "here is a graph, you can decide what I'm trying to say" particularly when it's a graph that is fairly misleading in one very core way.

fair enough, full details of government's daily released data, with their graphs.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/cases

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:29 am 1) What point are you trying to make
2) Do you think that data can be taken at face value without accepting the entirely different testing environment we have now?

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:08 am

dpedin wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 9:53 am Figure I saw was 10% of those who had contracted covid19 experienced some form of long covid19 not 10% of those hospitalised. This would include cardiac, stroke, PE type issues as well as post viral issues.Its a nasty virus!

It's 10% of those NOT hospitalised having month+ of symptoms according to the Govt, but additionally a number of hospitalised have post-hospitalisation issues for 2 months or more following discharge from hospital.

So it's two things, really:

1) People not sick enough to go to hospital can't shake the damn thing and get relapses and weird symptoms for a long time
2) People who were sick enough to go to hospital can get serious complications lasting a long time

We don't yet know what the real scale of this is, because, well, time.

Here's some more info of various sorts with some interesting numbers in there

https://patient.info/news-and-features/ ... oronavirus
https://time.com/5878448/longterm-covid ... -research/
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-styl ... 93848.html

Northern Lights wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 8:06 am
The only numbers i have seen (qnd i cant remember where now) were that it lasted long term for 10% of people that end up in hospital which when a the majority dont even need to be hospitalised does to me feel like that they are playing this up,

Openside wrote: ↑Wed Sep 30, 2020 2:38 pm what's IH's Agenda here? I am somewhat mystified why he seems to have a chubby for all this stuff.

We need to shield the infirm and the elderly and everyone else needs to get on with it. Anything else will create an even bigger problem than the virus is anyway!!

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:08 am

dpedin wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 9:53 am Figure I saw was 10% of those who had contracted covid19 experienced some form of long covid19 not 10% of those hospitalised. This would include cardiac, stroke, PE type issues as well as post viral issues.Its a nasty virus!

It's 10% of those NOT hospitalised having month+ of symptoms according to the Govt, but additionally a number of hospitalised have post-hospitalisation issues for 2 months or more following discharge from hospital.

So it's two things, really:

1) People not sick enough to go to hospital can't shake the damn thing and get relapses and weird symptoms for a long time
2) People who were sick enough to go to hospital can get serious complications lasting a long time

We don't yet know what the real scale of this is, because, well, time.

Here's some more info of various sorts with some interesting numbers in there

https://patient.info/news-and-features/ ... oronavirus
https://time.com/5878448/longterm-covid ... -research/
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-styl ... 93848.html

dpedin wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 9:53 am Figure I saw was 10% of those who had contracted covid19 experienced some form of long covid19 not 10% of those hospitalised. This would include cardiac, stroke, PE type issues as well as post viral issues.Its a nasty virus!

mat the expat wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:42 am

Northern Lights wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 8:06 am
The only numbers i have seen (qnd i cant remember where now) were that it lasted long term for 10% of people that end up in hospital which when a the majority dont even need to be hospitalised does to me feel like that they are playing this up,

What possible reason would they have for that you loon?

Slick wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 9:32 am

Northern Lights wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 8:06 am

Ovals wrote: ↑Wed Sep 30, 2020 10:40 am

Very good article.

Yeah, i liked that article, very well written. The one area i would like more detail on is the "long-Covid" that unfortunately again does not have the same statistical analysis as the rest of the article and just goes for very broad generalisations:

Second, death isn’t the only negative outcome. So while death is very rare among younger people, severe disease isn’t; I personally know four people under 40 (two under 30) who got Covid and suffered for months afterward. “If you spend three weeks in ICU, you’re not going to be too happy about it even if you do survive,” says Beale. “It’s possible that you’ll make a full recovery, but a lot of people don’t. And it’s fine telling people that you’re a fit and healthy 30-year-old so you’ve got a 0.01% chance of dying, but your chance of ending up in hospital is much higher, and people don’t fancy spending a week in hospital, frightened and short of breath.”

We shouldn’t downplay the seriousness of this disease even for many people who don’t die of it. The measures and changes we’ve discussed here will reduce the number of severely affected people, as well as deaths, but to what extent is not clear.

The only numbers i have seen (qnd i cant remember where now) were that it lasted long term for 10% of people that end up in hospital which when a the majority dont even need to be hospitalised does to me feel like that they are playing this up, i have though heard that others that havent gone to hospital still struggle with shortness of breath etc but it only seems to be anecdotal stuff, are there better numbers on this?

I know 2 folk in Edinburgh, under 40, that still can't walk out the house 5 months on. That doesn't help your analysis, but it is real.

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:08 am

dpedin wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 9:53 am Figure I saw was 10% of those who had contracted covid19 experienced some form of long covid19 not 10% of those hospitalised. This would include cardiac, stroke, PE type issues as well as post viral issues.Its a nasty virus!

It's 10% of those NOT hospitalised having month+ of symptoms according to the Govt, but additionally a number of hospitalised have post-hospitalisation issues for 2 months or more following discharge from hospital.

So it's two things, really:

1) People not sick enough to go to hospital can't shake the damn thing and get relapses and weird symptoms for a long time
2) People who were sick enough to go to hospital can get serious complications lasting a long time

We don't yet know what the real scale of this is, because, well, time.

Here's some more info of various sorts with some interesting numbers in there

https://patient.info/news-and-features/ ... oronavirus
https://time.com/5878448/longterm-covid ... -research/
https://www.independent.co.uk/life-styl ... 93848.html

Mr Johnson said....

He said the UK is experiencing a resurgence , with around 15% of tests coming back with positive results.

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 11:17 am https://www.itv.com/news/2020-09-30/cov ... -direction

Mr Johnson said....

He said the UK is experiencing a resurgence , with around 15% of tests coming back with positive results.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2. ... 1586367656

So based yesterday's stats - 232,100 so 15% = 34,815 infections?

but infections reported from testing ~7,100

So either only 47,300 tests were performed (not 232,000) or the infection are at ~34,000 (not 7,100)

or positive rate is... ~3%, in which case why is the PM scaremongering with dodgy stats.

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 11:17 am https://www.itv.com/news/2020-09-30/cov ... -direction

Mr Johnson said....

He said the UK is experiencing a resurgence , with around 15% of tests coming back with positive results.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/?_ga=2. ... 1586367656

So based yesterday's stats - 232,100 so 15% = 34,815 infections?

but infections reported from testing ~7,100

So either only 47,300 tests were performed (not 232,000) or the infection are at ~34,000 (not 7,100)

or positive rate is... ~3%, in which case why is the PM scaremongering with dodgy stats.

Biffer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 11:20 am Test performed is not the same as people tested. The positive rate applies to people tested.

Northern Lights wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 11:10 am

mat the expat wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:42 am

Northern Lights wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 8:06 am
The only numbers i have seen (qnd i cant remember where now) were that it lasted long term for 10% of people that end up in hospital which when a the majority dont even need to be hospitalised does to me feel like that they are playing this up,

What possible reason would they have for that you loon?

Eh to keep the youngsters in line.

At the moment they dont view it as much of a risk to them, so it's highly unlikely they will die from it but there is a 10%ish possibility of long term health issues will probably get more obedience or is that too difficult for your little brain.

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 11:28 am

Biffer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 11:20 am Test performed is not the same as people tested. The positive rate applies to people tested.

So they're performing 232,000 tests but only testing 47,000 people. Each having 5 tests?

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:08 am
1) People not sick enough to go to hospital can't shake the damn thing and get relapses and weird symptoms for a long time

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 3:24 pm

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:08 am
1) People not sick enough to go to hospital can't shake the damn thing and get relapses and weird symptoms for a long time

Agreed. These people aren't sick enough to get the Dex shot or some blood thinners which would probably prevent more damage & benefit them in the long term.

Being 30 and toughing it out at home with Long Covid for 2 months is possibly worse than being 70 and spending a week in a ward tended to by a fleet of medical staff.

This won't change, which is why we desperately need a vaccine. Not just to prevent deaths, but all complications from Covid.

Biffer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 3:28 pm

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 3:24 pm

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:08 am
1) People not sick enough to go to hospital can't shake the damn thing and get relapses and weird symptoms for a long time

Agreed. These people aren't sick enough to get the Dex shot or some blood thinners which would probably prevent more damage & benefit them in the long term.

Being 30 and toughing it out at home with Long Covid for 2 months is possibly worse than being 70 and spending a week in a ward tended to by a fleet of medical staff.

This won't change, which is why we desperately need a vaccine. Not just to prevent deaths, but all complications from Covid.

Evidence in the dex trial was that it might have a small negative impact on those with mild symptoms.

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 11:28 am

Biffer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 11:20 am Test performed is not the same as people tested. The positive rate applies to people tested.

So they're performing 232,000 tests but only testing 47,000 people. Each having 5 tests?

Sandstorm wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 3:24 pm

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 10:08 am
1) People not sick enough to go to hospital can't shake the damn thing and get relapses and weird symptoms for a long time

Agreed. These people aren't sick enough to get the Dex shot or some blood thinners which would probably prevent more damage & benefit them in the long term.

Being 30 and toughing it out at home with Long Covid for 2 months is possibly worse than being 70 and spending a week in a ward tended to by a fleet of medical staff.

This won't change, which is why we desperately need a vaccine. Not just to prevent deaths, but all complications from Covid.

Margin__Walker wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 5:08 pm Has this been done yet?

WTAF

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 4:12 pm

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 11:28 am

Biffer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 11:20 am Test performed is not the same as people tested. The positive rate applies to people tested.

So they're performing 232,000 tests but only testing 47,000 people. Each having 5 tests?

I’d explain about false positives, if I thought you’d understand.

Margin__Walker wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 5:51 pm It's about as irresponsible as it gets from an MP in the current climate.

Some batshit decision making.

You'd think Sturgeon would probably feel she can't let it slide with just a telling off, given criticism directed at Johnson for keeping Cummings on.

C69 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 5:58 pm Starting to feel pretty grim up North, some of the ICUs have half of their beds used up with Covid patients. Schools being closed for a couple of weeks because of Covid and loads of parents having to take a couple of weeks off to lool after the kids if they are sent home.

C69 wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 5:58 pm Starting to feel pretty grim up North, some of the ICUs have half of their beds used up with Covid patients. Schools being closed for a couple of weeks because of Covid and loads of parents having to take a couple of weeks off to lool after the kids if they are sent home.

BnM wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 6:36 pm How did she get too and from the stations, hope she didn't take the tube.

Selfishness and stupidity is off the scale.

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 5:30 pm

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 4:12 pm

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Thu Oct 01, 2020 11:28 am

So they're performing 232,000 tests but only testing 47,000 people. Each having 5 tests?

I’d explain about false positives, if I thought you’d understand.

the ONS stated 2.4% false positive rate accounts for the discrepancy of 190,000, so I can only assume your understanding is similar to Desmond Swayne's, which is idiotic at best.