NPR

tabascoboy wrote: ↑Fri Jul 29, 2022 10:53 am

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Fri Jul 29, 2022 10:44 am

petej wrote: ↑Thu Jul 28, 2022 11:40 pm

Party time is over. I can remember working in nuclear and having a right laugh with a colleague about how in the shit we would be in 10 years (and how stupid Germany was to shutdown nuclear power plants) now it is 9 years later. Wasn't difficult to look at expected generating plant life for nuclear and coal plants and other UK generating assets and to look at build timeliness. Also most assets were state built. Dungeness being shut down early was interesting as other AGR's have been life extended but output has been dropping as the asset has degraded and also become less reliable. UK gas storage facility being closed was a dense decision.

I had so much faith in the government on power that the first thing I did to the property I brought was cram as many solar panels on roof as possible, followed by improving the insulation and finally getting a house battery.

I don't get angry at politics all that often, but the gas storage decision is a time I did (didn't follow it at the time, was genuinely astonished reading it recently). What minister/civil servant/anyone signed off on that?

For the sake of saving £75m a year for 10 years! Not sure who signed it off, searching just says "ministers", but there is this...

In 2013, the then energy minister Michael Fallon said the decision to allow Rough to close would save the UK £750m over 10 years. Instead, a diverse range of energy sources would ensure the public received “reliable supplies of electricity and gas at minimum cost”.

Masterji wrote: ↑Fri Aug 05, 2022 9:15 pm

tabascoboy wrote: ↑Fri Jul 29, 2022 10:53 am

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Fri Jul 29, 2022 10:44 am

I don't get angry at politics all that often, but the gas storage decision is a time I did (didn't follow it at the time, was genuinely astonished reading it recently). What minister/civil servant/anyone signed off on that?

For the sake of saving £75m a year for 10 years! Not sure who signed it off, searching just says "ministers", but there is this...

In 2013, the then energy minister Michael Fallon said the decision to allow Rough to close would save the UK £750m over 10 years. Instead, a diverse range of energy sources would ensure the public received “reliable supplies of electricity and gas at minimum cost”.

And if things turned out differently everyone would be asking why £750mn was wasted.

Warning energy prices to hit over £4,200 in January

Energy bills will hit £4,266 for a typical household by January next year, warns consultancy Cornwall Insight.

That's a rise of £650 for households in England, Scotland and Wales compared with its estimate just last week.

Cornwall cited regulator Ofgem's decision to change the price cap every three months instead of six and higher wholesale prices for the sharp jump.

The warning comes as the government rejects calls for further help on bills until a new prime minister is in place.

In its latest report, Cornwall has also increased its forecast for this autumn's typical domestic energy bills to £3,582, up from its previous prediction of £3,358.

The latest price cap - the maximum amount suppliers can charge customers for average energy usage in England, Scotland and Wales for October - is due to be announced at the end of this month.

Dr Craig Lowrey, principal consultant at Cornwall said its price cap forecasts had been steadily rising but the big jump in its forecasts comes as "a fresh shock".

"The cost-of-living crisis was already top of the news agenda as more and more people face fuel poverty, this will only compound the concerns."

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 9:50 am I wonder to what extent consumer demand will self-regulate at these prices?

SaintK wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 10:37 am ........and it's only going to get worse!!!
WTAF are this shower of shit of a government doing?

Biffer wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:27 pm 20 million households in UK. Subsidy of £400 for each would cost £8billion.

Comoanies have been announcing profits of £4-6billion for a quarter.

The answer seems fairly obvioua

Glaston wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 11:00 am

Biffer wrote: ↑Sat Aug 06, 2022 8:27 pm 20 million households in UK. Subsidy of £400 for each would cost £8billion.

Comoanies have been announcing profits of £4-6billion for a quarter.

The answer seems fairly obvioua

Are you referring to BP/Shell?

If so they actually make the majority of their profit outside the UK.
Does that make the answer obvious? I don't think so.

Glaston wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 10:54 am

SaintK wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 10:37 am ........and it's only going to get worse!!!
WTAF are this shower of shit of a government doing?

Feargal Sharkey uses a hell of a lot of gas.

GogLais wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 10:29 am

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 9:50 am I wonder to what extent consumer demand will self-regulate at these prices?

Certainly has in this household, I’ve just done a lightbulb audit. And I don’t always practise what I preach but driving a bit more slowly makes a significant difference, air resistance being proportional to the square of the speed. Well I think that’s what I was told fifty years ago.

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 12:15 pm

GogLais wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 10:29 am

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 9:50 am I wonder to what extent consumer demand will self-regulate at these prices?

Certainly has in this household, I’ve just done a lightbulb audit. And I don’t always practise what I preach but driving a bit more slowly makes a significant difference, air resistance being proportional to the square of the speed. Well I think that’s what I was told fifty years ago.

Yeah I know everyone's different but at these prices we're already being much more cautious about energy usage, and will definitely use the absolute bare minimum amount of heating we can get away with, I'm sure this will be reasonably common.

tabascoboy wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 12:27 pm

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 12:15 pm

GogLais wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 10:29 am

Certainly has in this household, I’ve just done a lightbulb audit. And I don’t always practise what I preach but driving a bit more slowly makes a significant difference, air resistance being proportional to the square of the speed. Well I think that’s what I was told fifty years ago.

Yeah I know everyone's different but at these prices we're already being much more cautious about energy usage, and will definitely use the absolute bare minimum amount of heating we can get away with, I'm sure this will be reasonably common.

Already did that last winter - which was actually pretty mild. Bill for gas only, generally 2 - 3 hours/day average for Dec - Jan - Feb was under £200 in total and house never really got warmer than 19 - 20 °C briefly at the highest in any one room. That was with a very favourable fixed rate for one year from March 2021 and a single occupier of a not well insulated old house at ~ 10 000 kw/h per year. Plus, Feb and March were very sunny which helped warm up the south facing rooms.

Can't imagine using less than that ( there's only so many clothes you can wear without being immobile ), so expecting to triple that sum and worse if it's a cold winter this time. Nonetheless hoping to keep the yearly bill around £1500 and a low consumer of electricity at ~1000 kw/h per year so hopefully below £1 000. Even so that's totalling £2 500 around 20 - 25% of my admittedly low occupational pension income, so how families will manage is beyond me since I least can delve into substantial savings.

vball wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 2:07 pm
I live in an old croft in the Highlands of Scotland. No roof insulation as there is no space. Walls are made of stone so not wall insulation either. Wind just blows through the house - you can really feel it.
We do not put central heating on timed but use as needed which is probably an hour in the morning and an hour at night. Coal fire in the lving room goes on at night.
Is it cold in the house? Stays at about 12-14c but early mornings below that for sure. Good socks and nice jumper. Yeah most folk would not be able to stand it but wife and I ( in late 50's) are used to it. Keeps germs away too.

UK Braces for Blackouts, Gas Cuts in January in Emergency Plan

Reasonable worst-case scenario envisages 4-day power shortfall
Industry, households could face planned power outages

The UK is planning for several days over the winter when cold weather may combine with gas shortages, leading to organized blackouts for industry and even households.

Under the government’s latest “reasonable worst-case scenario,” Britain could face an electricity capacity shortfall totaling about a sixth of peak demand, even after emergency coal plants have been fired up, according to people familiar with the government’s planning.

Under that outlook, below-average temperatures and reduced electricity imports from Norway and France could expose four days in January when the UK may need to trigger emergency measures to conserve gas, they said. The government Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... gency-plan

vball wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 2:07 pm

tabascoboy wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 12:27 pm

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 12:15 pm

Yeah I know everyone's different but at these prices we're already being much more cautious about energy usage, and will definitely use the absolute bare minimum amount of heating we can get away with, I'm sure this will be reasonably common.

Already did that last winter - which was actually pretty mild. Bill for gas only, generally 2 - 3 hours/day average for Dec - Jan - Feb was under £200 in total and house never really got warmer than 19 - 20 °C briefly at the highest in any one room. That was with a very favourable fixed rate for one year from March 2021 and a single occupier of a not well insulated old house at ~ 10 000 kw/h per year. Plus, Feb and March were very sunny which helped warm up the south facing rooms.

Can't imagine using less than that ( there's only so many clothes you can wear without being immobile ), so expecting to triple that sum and worse if it's a cold winter this time. Nonetheless hoping to keep the yearly bill around £1500 and a low consumer of electricity at ~1000 kw/h per year so hopefully below £1 000. Even so that's totalling £2 500 around 20 - 25% of my admittedly low occupational pension income, so how families will manage is beyond me since I least can delve into substantial savings.

I live in an old croft in the Highlands of Scotland. No roof insulation as there is no space. Walls are made of stone so not wall insulation either. Wind just blows through the house - you can really feel it.
We do not put central heating on timed but use as needed which is probably an hour in the morning and an hour at night. Coal fire in the lving room goes on at night.
Is it cold in the house? Stays at about 12-14c but early mornings below that for sure. Good socks and nice jumper. Yeah most folk would not be able to stand it but wife and I ( in late 50's) are used to it. Keeps germs away too.

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 6:15 pm Yeah whatever the government say there are definitely going to be blackouts this winter, the only question is how bad will they be

I like neeps wrote: ↑Wed Aug 10, 2022 8:19 am

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 6:15 pm Yeah whatever the government say there are definitely going to be blackouts this winter, the only question is how bad will they be

I really do not understand why nobody is campaigning now for lower energy use. As you've said people are voluntarily (many won't be voluntarily just can't pay) going to try and reduce consumption. How about a national campaign?

Dogbert wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 2:13 pm It's a JRM cunning plan to get workers back into offices

WFM & Freeze , or come into a nice cozy office

I like neeps wrote: ↑Wed Aug 10, 2022 8:19 am

Paddington Bear wrote: ↑Tue Aug 09, 2022 6:15 pm Yeah whatever the government say there are definitely going to be blackouts this winter, the only question is how bad will they be

I really do not understand why nobody is campaigning now for lower energy use. As you've said people are voluntarily (many won't be voluntarily just can't pay) going to try and reduce consumption. How about a national campaign?

Especially as covid has shown that people in the UK are more likely to overreact than underreact and don't actually care about govt intervening.

Dogbert wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 3:12 pm Because Health and Safety Executive states employers are legally obliged to keep the indoor temperature comfortable.

Obviously this could go on the Bonfire of red tape

maybe we can use this bonfire to warm houses

Insane_Homer wrote: ↑Thu Aug 11, 2022 5:17 pm

Margin__Walker wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:10 pm Really does feel like we're sleepwalking into a brick wall.

Parliament on their summer holidays. PM on the way out with the leadership contenders either mumbling on about Tax cuts or getting Brexit even more done to the members. And Labour completely mute.

It's seems clear as day (to a layman like myself anyway) that some sort of serious intervention will be required.

As you say Ovals, personally we'll be able to swallow the extra costs. Far too many people wont be able to though.

Margin__Walker wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:10 pm Really does feel like we're sleepwalking into a brick wall.

Parliament on their summer holidays. PM on the way out with the leadership contenders either mumbling on about Tax cuts or getting Brexit even more done to the members. And Labour completely mute.

It's seems clear as day (to a layman like myself anyway) that some sort of serious intervention will be required.

As you say Ovals, personally we'll be able to swallow the extra costs. Far too many people wont be able to though.

Ovals wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 11:41 pm

Margin__Walker wrote: ↑Fri Aug 12, 2022 2:10 pm Really does feel like we're sleepwalking into a brick wall.

Parliament on their summer holidays. PM on the way out with the leadership contenders either mumbling on about Tax cuts or getting Brexit even more done to the members. And Labour completely mute.

It's seems clear as day (to a layman like myself anyway) that some sort of serious intervention will be required.

As you say Ovals, personally we'll be able to swallow the extra costs. Far too many people wont be able to though.

And, on top of the rampant energy cost increases, the BofE are also sticking it to those with big mortgages. Raising interest rates at the same time as predicting a long recession, and supply side cost increases out of our control, is a sure way to stagflation. Maggie solved it by having 3M unemployed - not sure that option is viable atm.