Line6 HXFX wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:31 am
I remember at the the last election, listening to one of the very few people to accurately predict the result. The Black political commentator Van Jones said that Hillary only had 73% of the black vote, when she needed something like 88% to win. (Cannot remember the precise figures sorry, figures for demonstration purposes only, but they were something like that).
He said there is no way she will win without her hitting the high eighties amongst black voters ..I assume the same is true now for Joe, and pretty much all democratic presidential candidates.
If the Republicans can stick up a black, independent candidate to split the black vote, get Biden's vote amongst blacks down into the seventies, then, if Van Jones is right (he was) , it is still squeaky bum time and very much all to play for.
People thought kanye running was a joke, I instantly thought "oh fuck".
There's a strange phenomenon of black voters or minorities supporting Trump. I have a lot of families and friends in the US and a lot of them support Trump, even now. They buy everything Trump says - making America great again, he's creating jobs, he's not racist etc.
IMO the biggest factors is at the community level where they live they hate other minorites (rivalries amongst minorities/gangs etc) and poorer people.
The other factor is a lack of education relating to their self esteem in that if an eloquent smart woman like Hilary explain something to them then they immediately feel defensive as in "who the hell are you?" whereas Trump trash talks hid opponents which they can relate.
Line6 HXFX wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:31 am
I remember at the the last election, listening to one of the very few people to accurately predict the result. The Black political commentator Van Jones said that Hillary only had 73% of the black vote, when she needed something like 88% to win. (Cannot remember the precise figures sorry, figures for demonstration purposes only, but they were something like that).
He said there is no way she will win without her hitting the high eighties amongst black voters ..I assume the same is true now for Joe, and pretty much all democratic presidential candidates.
If the Republicans can stick up a black, independent candidate to split the black vote, get Biden's vote amongst blacks down into the seventies, then, if Van Jones is right (he was) , it is still squeaky bum time and very much all to play for.
People thought kanye running was a joke, I instantly thought "oh fuck".
There's a strange phenomenon of black voters or minorities supporting Trump. I have a lot of families and friends in the US and a lot of them support Trump, even now. They buy everything Trump says - making America great again, he's creating jobs, he's not racist etc.
IMO the biggest factors is at the community level where they live they hate other minorites (rivalries amongst minorities/gangs etc) and poorer people.
The other factor is a lack of education relating to their self esteem in that if an eloquent smart woman like Hilary explain something to them then they immediately feel defensive as in "who the hell are you?" whereas Trump trash talks hid opponents which they can relate.
Think the other issue with the Clinton brand amongst Black people was the fact Bill basically pushed black people under the bus (three strikes and you're out laws, the war on drugs, pushing the whole welfare queen narrative) to compromise with Republicans, and they never forgave the clintons for that.
These laws impacted Black people terribly.
Re: TRE45ON Trump and US politics catchall
Posted: Tue Jul 28, 2020 9:00 am
by CrazyIslander
I can't remember Bill's policies ever been a big factor in the Election although I didn't follow it in detail.
Re: TRE45ON Trump and US politics catchall
Posted: Tue Jul 28, 2020 9:16 am
by Line6 HXFX
CrazyIslander wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 9:00 am
I can't remember Bill's policies ever been a big factor in the Election although I didn't follow it in detail.
CrazyIslander wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 9:00 am
I can't remember Bill's policies ever been a big factor in the Election although I didn't follow it in detail.
They don't have to be pushed front and centre to be relevant. If a community by and large feels fucked over by one Clinton then that can become a residual memory that taints the name at a subconscious level.
CrazyIslander wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 9:00 am
I can't remember Bill's policies ever been a big factor in the Election although I didn't follow it in detail.
They don't have to be pushed front and centre to be relevant. If a community by and large feels fucked over by one Clinton then that can become a residual memory that taints the name at a subconscious level.
I guess that means Trump Junior has no chance in 2024 then?
CrazyIslander wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 9:00 am
I can't remember Bill's policies ever been a big factor in the Election although I didn't follow it in detail.
They don't have to be pushed front and centre to be relevant. If a community by and large feels fucked over by one Clinton then that can become a residual memory that taints the name at a subconscious level.
I guess that means Trump Junior has no chance in 2024 then?
You think they'll be out of prison by then ?
Re: TRE45ON Trump and US politics catchall
Posted: Tue Jul 28, 2020 9:30 am
by Sandstorm
fishfoodie wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 9:30 am
You think they'll be out of prison by then ?
CrazyIslander wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 9:00 am
I can't remember Bill's policies ever been a big factor in the Election although I didn't follow it in detail.
They don't have to be pushed front and centre to be relevant. If a community by and large feels fucked over by one Clinton then that can become a residual memory that taints the name at a subconscious level.
I guess that means Trump Junior has no chance in 2024 then?
You'd hope not, but all the polls atm seem to indicate his hopeless fuckwit father still has a bewildering amount of support, so the name clearly isn't yet tarnished enough for some.
Re: TRE45ON Trump and US politics catchall
Posted: Tue Jul 28, 2020 9:42 am
by Rhubarb & Custard
There is perhaps some fun to be had watching Don Jr. and Daughter Wife try to tear each other down on stage going for the nomination
Re: TRE45ON Trump and US politics catchall
Posted: Tue Jul 28, 2020 9:47 am
by JM2K6
Line6 HXFX wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 6:31 am
I remember at the the last election, listening to one of the very few people to accurately predict the result. The Black political commentator Van Jones said that Hillary only had 73% of the black vote, when she needed something like 88% to win. (Cannot remember the precise figures sorry, figures for demonstration purposes only, but they were something like that).
He said there is no way she will win without her hitting the high eighties amongst black voters ..I assume the same is true now for Joe, and pretty much all democratic presidential candidates.
If the Republicans can stick up a black, independent candidate to split the black vote, get Biden's vote amongst blacks down into the seventies, then, if Van Jones is right (he was) , it is still squeaky bum time and very much all to play for.
People thought kanye running was a joke, I instantly thought "oh fuck".
Biden's more popular with black people than HIllary was. Kanye is not actually all that popular with black people for a variety of reasons and his campaign is a sad mess with even his own wife asking for sensitivity regarding his mental health.
Biden's appeal to hispanics is way down compared to Hillary, though.
Re: TRE45ON Trump and US politics catchall
Posted: Tue Jul 28, 2020 10:59 am
by Sandstorm
Dems screwed up by not going with a young person who wasn't a billionaire cnut. You don't have to have the best candidate, just have someone who isn't like Donald.
Easy campaign slogan "No more old, rich, white guys"
Idiots!
Re: TRE45ON Trump and US politics catchall
Posted: Tue Jul 28, 2020 11:05 am
by JM2K6
The Dems are bankrolled by old rich white guys, and medium-age rich white guys, which is why they're so resistant to change. Money talks in US politics to an insane amount.
Re: TRE45ON Trump and US politics catchall
Posted: Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:01 pm
by bok_viking
I think the 2 party system is not a good thing for the Democrats especially. If you look at the Republicans, the 2 extremes within the party are much closer aligned in policy, so when they have a presidential candidate, most GOP voters have no problem voting for the candidate, so a larger percentage voters will go out and actually vote. Whereas the Democrats have a much wider range of voters they are trying to cover, the extreme ends within the party is quite far apart, so when a presidential candidate is put forward, there are quite a few people who identify as Democrats that do not want to vote for this candidate as the person's policies is not close enough to their own prefered option. So come voting time, they just end up not going out to vote. It seems because of this, the DNC struggles to get voters to go voting en masse. For example, I have heard many Bernie supporters say they would not vote for Biden and might not go and vote at all. However in relation to the current situation, there are several Bernie supporters that said under other circumstances they would not go and vote due to Biden being the candidate, but this year they will just so they can vote against Trump.
You can most probably divide the Democrats into 2 or 3 parties to get extremes within the party more closer aligned to match the Republican party. The USa could definitely do with there being another 1 or 2 parties.
Re: TRE45ON Trump and US politics catchall
Posted: Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:04 pm
by Sandstorm
bok_viking wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:01 pm
I think the 2 party system is not a good thing for the Democrats especially. If you look at the Republicans, the 2 extremes within the party are much closer aligned in policy, so when they have a presidential candidate, most GOP voters have no problem voting for the candidate, so a larger percentage voters will go out and actually vote. Whereas the Democrats have a much wider range of voters they are trying to cover, the extreme ends within the party is quite far apart, so when a presidential candidate is put forward, there are quite a few people who identify as Democrats that do not want to vote for this candidate as the person's policies is not close enough to their own prefered option. So come voting time, they just end up not going out to vote. It seems because of this, the DNC struggles to get voters to go voting en masse. For example, I have heard many Bernie supporters say they would not vote for Biden and might not go and vote at all. However in relation to the current situation, there are several Bernie supporters that said under other circumstances they would not go and vote due to Biden being the candidate, but this year they will just so they can vote against Trump.
You can most probably divide the Democrats into 2 or 3 parties to get extremes within the party more closer aligned to match the Republican party. The USa could definitely do with there being another 1 or 2 parties.
Just get Bernie fucking Sanders out of there! He fucked up 2016 and - if what you say is right - he'll fuck up this one for the Dems again.
bok_viking wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:01 pm
I think the 2 party system is not a good thing for the Democrats especially. If you look at the Republicans, the 2 extremes within the party are much closer aligned in policy, so when they have a presidential candidate, most GOP voters have no problem voting for the candidate, so a larger percentage voters will go out and actually vote. Whereas the Democrats have a much wider range of voters they are trying to cover, the extreme ends within the party is quite far apart, so when a presidential candidate is put forward, there are quite a few people who identify as Democrats that do not want to vote for this candidate as the person's policies is not close enough to their own prefered option. So come voting time, they just end up not going out to vote. It seems because of this, the DNC struggles to get voters to go voting en masse. For example, I have heard many Bernie supporters say they would not vote for Biden and might not go and vote at all. However in relation to the current situation, there are several Bernie supporters that said under other circumstances they would not go and vote due to Biden being the candidate, but this year they will just so they can vote against Trump.
You can most probably divide the Democrats into 2 or 3 parties to get extremes within the party more closer aligned to match the Republican party. The USa could definitely do with there being another 1 or 2 parties.
Just get Bernie fucking Sanders out of there! He fucked up 2016 and - if what you say is right - he'll fuck up this one for the Dems again.
Well it is Bernie this time, when it gets to the next election it will just be another candidate that will cause the same issues within the DNC, when you listen to primary speeches, the candidates always seem to be so far apart in policy
Re: TRE45ON Trump and US politics catchall
Posted: Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:54 pm
by Fangle
A lot of people will vote for Trump, even though they detest him, because there is no way they will ever vote for a Democrat. Of course there are many Democrats who wouldn’t vote for a Republican, ever.
bok_viking wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:01 pm
I think the 2 party system is not a good thing for the Democrats especially. If you look at the Republicans, the 2 extremes within the party are much closer aligned in policy, so when they have a presidential candidate, most GOP voters have no problem voting for the candidate, so a larger percentage voters will go out and actually vote. Whereas the Democrats have a much wider range of voters they are trying to cover, the extreme ends within the party is quite far apart, so when a presidential candidate is put forward, there are quite a few people who identify as Democrats that do not want to vote for this candidate as the person's policies is not close enough to their own prefered option. So come voting time, they just end up not going out to vote. It seems because of this, the DNC struggles to get voters to go voting en masse. For example, I have heard many Bernie supporters say they would not vote for Biden and might not go and vote at all. However in relation to the current situation, there are several Bernie supporters that said under other circumstances they would not go and vote due to Biden being the candidate, but this year they will just so they can vote against Trump.
You can most probably divide the Democrats into 2 or 3 parties to get extremes within the party more closer aligned to match the Republican party. The USa could definitely do with there being another 1 or 2 parties.
Just get Bernie fucking Sanders out of there! He fucked up 2016 and - if what you say is right - he'll fuck up this one for the Dems again.
There are probably a lot of 2016 Bernie voters who will not vote Biden, but Bernie didn't manage to get them back again in 2020. Of the actual Bernie voters in 2020 it looks like a huge % will vote for Biden.
Where Biden might have some issue is with the Latino vote, but that's not a massive Bernie demographic.
Re: TRE45ON Trump and US politics catchall
Posted: Tue Jul 28, 2020 2:06 pm
by Rhubarb & Custard
Sandstorm wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 10:59 am
Dems screwed up by not going with a young person who wasn't a billionaire cnut. You don't have to have the best candidate, just have someone who isn't like Donald.
Easy campaign slogan "No more old, rich, white guys"
Idiots!
it's possible the aim isn't to have an easy campaign slogan
There's a reason America keeps voting in old rich white men, they like old rich white men. So if you want to make a campaign easy rather than have an easy slogan as you note you do exactly what they have done and pick an old rich white man, and then you avoid a lot of the racism Obama had to handle and the misogyny Clinton had to handle. This perhaps makes still more sense up against a candidate like Trump who will stir any pot he can stumble across, it's just a lot harder for him to rant against a senile, old, rich white guy who's less than spry
Re: TRE45ON Trump and US politics catchall
Posted: Tue Jul 28, 2020 4:07 pm
by Marylandolorian
.
Re: TRE45ON Trump and US politics catchall
Posted: Tue Jul 28, 2020 4:21 pm
by Raggs
So turns out riots in Richmond were instigated by white supremacists, pretending to be BLM.
Bingo!
I told my wife this weekend about this, it didn't look at all like BLM, same things happened in other cities .
It's the only way that the don can stay, by sending Feds troops in the blue metropolis and controlling then by putting some type of state of emergencies decree.
Re: TRE45ON Trump and US politics catchall
Posted: Tue Jul 28, 2020 5:21 pm
by Hal Jordan
FAKE NEWS! BAD!
Re: TRE45ON Trump and US politics catchall
Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:06 am
by Sinkers
Raggs wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 4:21 pm
So turns out riots in Richmond were instigated by white supremacists, pretending to be BLM.
bok_viking wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 12:01 pm
I think the 2 party system is not a good thing for the Democrats especially. If you look at the Republicans, the 2 extremes within the party are much closer aligned in policy, so when they have a presidential candidate, most GOP voters have no problem voting for the candidate, so a larger percentage voters will go out and actually vote. Whereas the Democrats have a much wider range of voters they are trying to cover, the extreme ends within the party is quite far apart, so when a presidential candidate is put forward, there are quite a few people who identify as Democrats that do not want to vote for this candidate as the person's policies is not close enough to their own prefered option. So come voting time, they just end up not going out to vote. It seems because of this, the DNC struggles to get voters to go voting en masse. For example, I have heard many Bernie supporters say they would not vote for Biden and might not go and vote at all. However in relation to the current situation, there are several Bernie supporters that said under other circumstances they would not go and vote due to Biden being the candidate, but this year they will just so they can vote against Trump.
You can most probably divide the Democrats into 2 or 3 parties to get extremes within the party more closer aligned to match the Republican party. The USa could definitely do with there being another 1 or 2 parties.
Just get Bernie fucking Sanders out of there! He fucked up 2016 and - if what you say is right - he'll fuck up this one for the Dems again.
There are probably a lot of 2016 Bernie voters who will not vote Biden, but Bernie didn't manage to get them back again in 2020. Of the actual Bernie voters in 2020 it looks like a huge % will vote for Biden.
Where Biden might have some issue is with the Latino vote, but that's not a massive Bernie demographic.
And I don’t see a big Latinos for Trump movement, given his past rhetoric. Elections are as much (more?) about who votes against you than who voted for you.
As Robert Llewellyn said on Fully Charged yesterday, whilst reporting on a This Is Money report on electric cars being cheaper than ICE, never look at the lower half of the internet.
And I don’t see a big Latinos for Trump movement, given his past rhetoric. Elections are as much (more?) about who votes against you than who voted for you.
Brilliantly the Trump movement does have a Latinos for Trump movement, and they've staffed it with as many Latinos as they can find to lead the group, including John Pence who's wearing as much bronzer as I assume they think is needed to make him look more Latino and less like the nephew of Mike.
The Dems do have some issues brining in the Latino vote too, and things can work very differently in Florida (what doesn't) given the Cuba situation
Re: TRE45ON Trump and US politics catchall
Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:42 pm
by bok_viking
I guess Biden is the more convenient choice for the Democrats because he is right enough to possibly attract the right leaning swing voters. I just think the Democrats are trying to cover to wide a range of ideologies compared to the Republicans. Which normally hamper voter turnout in my opinion. But i guess there is not much choice. Does seem that the upcoming election is all about being for/against Trump instead of any specific ideology. So maybe it will help the Democrats this time around. But with gerrymandering and the electoral college that does not mean much it seems.
Re: TRE45ON Trump and US politics catchall
Posted: Wed Jul 29, 2020 5:54 pm
by Plato’sCave
Raggs wrote: Tue Jul 28, 2020 4:21 pm
So turns out riots in Richmond were instigated by white supremacists, pretending to be BLM.
There's a video of some 72 year old showing how treacherous that ramp is; & noticeably that day the ramp was actually wet; not the imaginary wet that the Shitgibbon saw the day he descended it.
Re: TRE45ON Trump and US politics catchall
Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:22 pm
by Hal Jordan
Trump calls for a delay to the election due to postal fraud. He can't get it as he needs Congressional approval, but it's all about the narrative.
Re: TRE45ON Trump and US politics catchall
Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:39 pm
by Hong Kong
Re: TRE45ON Trump and US politics catchall
Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:41 pm
by Sandstorm
Re: TRE45ON Trump and US politics catchall
Posted: Thu Jul 30, 2020 1:42 pm
by Biffer
Trump now calling for the election to be delayed. Lining himself up to refuse to give up the office
