Saffers

[_Os_]

What's really going on is the ANC doesn't understand it has lost. It is now a 40% party. The DA is more than half the size of the ANC. It is not the 70% party of decades ago, when it was 4 or 5 times larger than the DA. Those days are gone.

To get anything done it must now decide how to best give up power. It will not get a better deal than the DA, the ANC knows this, which is why it went to the DA. They can rant about whites, call us all racists, scream about apartheid, and on and on. The facts do not change.

I highly recommend browsing SA politics social media and watching some SABC politics/news shows with that in mind.

[average joe]

I stay as far as possible away from any social media, especially "black twitter" and I've not had a TV connected to any broadcasting in years especially not the national disgrace that is the SABC. I read a bit of news and opinion pieces on the browser at work. I don't really have an appetite for following politics, but I form my opinions on what I see and hear around me.

Ramaphosa's star is fading fast within the ANC. The ones in the ANC that support him now, will ridicule him when he is gone. Those ones go with power. They did it with Mbeki, they did it with Zuma. The Mantashe's of this world only sing the praises of their boss until he's no longer their boss.

All the parties I won't want anywhere near governance are splinter parties from the ANC. I won't write off an MK or EFF alliance just yet. The ANC allowed state capture under Zuma, you can't tell me they didn't know about it or what the consequences of their looting will be. Even Ramaphosa was there, he is complicit in it. They don't care what happens to the country as long as their pockets are filled. With MK or EFF they can fill their pockets awhile longer.

When you ask ANC members to go with the DA, you are asking turkeys to vote for Christmas.

[_Os_]

When you ask ANC members to go with the DA, you are asking turkeys to vote for Christmas.

Exactly. And I'm enjoying watching that turkey "gobble gobble". The only real option is the DA, but they're in deep denial.

DA demands are reasonable. Ministries equal to their share of the coalition, which is normal practice elsewhere. Full control over the civil servant appointments, probably doesn't normally happen elsewhere, but most places haven't stuffed the civil service with ruling party cadres. Review of tenders probably also not common. It's now very clear the ANC don't want any of this.

The intital ANC offer was 3 joke ministries. After this was declined, the ANC offered 6 ministries (the DA share should be 11), the DA accepted that offer because they liked the ministries offered, for the DA it's about what they can do not the number of positions. A deal was done. Ramaphosa then changed the deal and swapped the good ministries for kak ones that were never discussed and have no budget or importance, this is the final ANC offer. The DA have not accepted that offer yet and have until the weekend to decide. It's obvious the same games are going to be played with policy and implementation too.

The ANC aren't serious about this, they seem to think some other option will work. There's no workable stable government without the DA, certainly not one capable of improving anything. It'll be a mess. The amusing part is the ANC seems to think the DA will care if the ANC is destroyed, they think the DA owes them something. No DA supporter/member/rep gives a fuck if the ANC dies. The entire point of a coalition with the ANC is giving the DA enough power to rescue the situation, the ANC are determined not to give the DA that platform (basically because they hate whites), so how do they think the DA is going to stick with that for 5 years?

I can see why Ramaphosa has fucked this all up. He's used to negotiating with desperate whites who cave. First on the mines, then with the Nats, then with big business in BEE deals. He was in those talks with nothing in his hands but his dick, the whites in all those talks had everything to lose. It's not like that anymore. Ramaphosa has billions to lose. The DA can walk away and nothing changes for the DA, the deal is becoming so bad that if they accept or not they've still got nothing.

[_Os_]

What I'm seeing so far looks like a bad deal for the DA.

There'll need to be massive policy wins for this to be worthwhile. Which were never on the table. Lets see if the ANC end cadre deployment which is in the deal, but so far everything in the deal has been watered down when the crunch comes.

No chance this is lasting long term. Could go through why but it's a bit depressing, basically as things stand the DA doesn't have enough power to do much. After years of this everyone will start blaming the DA (and whites) for the ANC's mess. The DA may get some wins out of this, but needed to be more than what it's looking like.

I can see this doing massive damage to the DA. There's some potential upside, but that involves convincing people who have never voted DA that the DA improved things and not the ANC/other parties.

It has kept bad bastards known as the EFF and MK out, that's about it.

[assfly]

There are some howlers in that cabinet.

The Minister of Defence

Let's hope they can find a way of working together for the betterment of South Africa.

[_Os_]

There are some howlers in that cabinet.

The Minister of Defence

Let's hope they can find a way of working together for the betterment of South Africa.

If they don't end cadre deployment then it's very likely any minister who isn't ANC is just sitting in a chair giving out orders which no one is listening to.

That's what happened to the NNP in the 1990s when they went into coalition with the ANC.

My feel is the DA should not have accepted. They're only backing out now if the voters punish them. If the voters never punish them they remain attached to the ANC. If/when the voters do punish them it could end them.

Coming months are going to be a rude awakening for some. None of this makes any sense if the DA doesn't have many ministers and doesn't have much power.

[assfly]

If they don't end cadre deployment then it's very likely any minister who isn't ANC is just sitting in a chair giving out orders which no one is listening to.

That's what happened to the NNP in the 1990s when they went into coalition with the ANC.

My feel is the DA should not have accepted. They're only backing out now if the voters punish them. If the voters never punish them they remain attached to the ANC. If/when the voters do punish them it could end them.

Coming months are going to be a rude awakening for some. None of this makes any sense if the DA doesn't have many ministers and doesn't have much power.

I heard on 702 today that CR isn't very pleased with the outcome either.

So ANC and DA don't like the deal.
The small parties do, because they're just happy to have a seat at the table.
Is this the best case scenario?

[_Os_]

I heard on 702 today that CR isn't very pleased with the outcome either.

So ANC and DA don't like the deal.
The small parties do, because they're just happy to have a seat at the table.
Is this the best case scenario?

Ramaphosa is a domkop who was shovelled billions through BEE deals.

Ramaphosa/ANC needed to give the DA a fair deal, which means proportionate seats in cabinet and some power over policy.

Instead Ramaphosa/ANC used the situation to screw the DA. The DA basically felt like they had to accept, because if they didn't there either wouldn't be a government or the ANC would form a coalition with the EFF or MK.

But the thing is, this doesn't work. DA voters are not going to keep rocking up and voting DA, if the DA doesn't have much power. People are going to quickly work out it's the same as voting ANC, then the DA is fucked.

[OomStruisbaai]

Well at least the DA have ministers, exct. So lets be positive , it can only get better from here.

[assfly]

it can only get better from here.

Bookmarked!

[_Os_]

Ja, I'm not confident anything good is going to come from this. The DA is getting runover.

Would've told the ANC "fuck this, form a coalition with the EFF then".

[Monk]

The DA have ministerial positions where they can make a difference. It is up to them to give themselves a chance particularly in how the departments function. Home Affairs is patently a mess. If the DA ministers can replace the Directors-General in the departments they head, renovate the structures and cut the chaff: any improvement in delivery it will mean a lot. They must be resolute in this: fire the corrupt, lame and lazy. Not have suspended officials languishing at home on full pay pending never ending disciplinary proceedings.

[LoveOfTheGame]

Ja, I'm not confident anything good is going to come from this. The DA is getting runover.

Would've told the ANC "fuck this, form a coalition with the EFF then".

That is all fair and well Ox, but the economic fallout from that decision would have devastating consequences far exceeding even the most pessimistic of us. It really would have been the absolute worst outcome for South Africa. And the reality is that it can still come to pass in the months or years ahead.

[_Os_]

The DA have ministerial positions where they can make a difference. It is up to them to give themselves a chance particularly in how the departments function. Home Affairs is patently a mess. If the DA ministers can replace the Directors-General in the departments they head, renovate the structures and cut the chaff: any improvement in delivery it will mean a lot. They must be resolute in this: fire the corrupt, lame and lazy. Not have suspended officials languishing at home on full pay pending never ending disciplinary proceedings.

The DA have backed down on the ANC breaking their agreement on parties being added (to dilute DA influence). They then backed down on the number of cabinet positions. They then backed down on some of the ministries they wanted (trade and industry). They are losing these negotiations because they fear the EFF and MK, the ANC on the other hand do not care and are using the EFF and MK against the DA (Ramaphosa said in his letter he was talking to other parties and the EFF confirmed this).

Ramaphosa has already said DGs and DDGs aren't being replaced. It's in the agreement that cadre deployment ends, but the agreement doesn't seem to be worth anything.

I've been watching the media, there's still no understanding of how cadre deployment works. It's not being mentioned and the assumption is ministers have full control. That falls apart if all their civil service staff are people ideologically committed to the ANC and its policies only. One of the reasons the DA didn't get trade and industry was because the civil service staff were so hardcore ANC they made it known they wouldn't serve anyone else.

This is without getting into the cabinet bloat, collective responsibility is how cabinet government works. The whole cabinet collectively makes decisions and it has been stacked in favour of the ANC.

The DA could maybe do some stuff along the lines of what you say. But that's not the stuff of a long term coalition, so there seems little point to me.

[_Os_]

Ja, I'm not confident anything good is going to come from this. The DA is getting runover.

Would've told the ANC "fuck this, form a coalition with the EFF then".

That is all fair and well Ox, but the economic fallout from that decision would have devastating consequences far exceeding even the most pessimistic of us. It really would have been the absolute worst outcome for South Africa. And the reality is that it can still come to pass in the months or years ahead.

If the DA have been given a hand its impossible to win with. Then what's going to happen is over time the DA suffers huge damage, then some version of the EFF or MK entering government happens, just maybe without the DA being the opposition.

Asking people to keep voting DA to prop up an ANC government, whilst the DA doesn't have much power, is I suspect not something that's going to fly with DA supporters through multiple elections over years and decades.

I suspect the ANC would've contained the EFF the same way they have the DA.

[Sandstorm]

You're being unfair Ox. This is the first time DA have had a seat at the table and the ANC need them. I think voters will give them a chance and if it has no meaningful effect, then they can just blame the ANC.

The DA walking away now just to make you happy about them "not going hardball" is stupid and I think you know this. If they did walk away and the other dodgy fucks take the seats, you'll howl even louder!

[_Os_]

This is the first time DA have had a seat at the table and the ANC need them.

The problem is the voters have ensured that's not the case. They have 4 other options. 1. minority government, (wouldn't work but is an option) 2. the minnow herd (also wouldn't work imo, but maybe a bit more stable). 3. EFF and probably the PA (probably would be a stable government just not a good one) 4. MK (total chaos).

Think about it from an ANC supporter/member point of view. If the ANC keeps sinking are you going to stick with the DA or pick a different option? What conditions would get the ANC more votes? I think the ANC is 100% unsalvageable, but that's not want ANC supporters/members think. There is a chance they add more votes but more on that below ...

I think voters will give them a chance and if it has no meaningful effect, then they can just blame the ANC.

When they're in government with the ANC? No chief. The DA are going to keep going with this until they're taking electoral damage. It's an extremely risky strategy. The electoral damage is I think locked in if they maintain this long term, DANC is now a real thing, a large amount of DA supporters are known to strongly dislike DANC. So they need to convince people who have never supported the DA that it's the DA improving things and not the ANC.

You know as well as I that in the UK people who had never voted Tory, voted Tory in 2015 to preserve the coalition. This tanked the Lib Dems, ending the coalition, this is one of the main reasons the Lib Dems lost seats and the Tory vote grew. Then what came after was a total shit show. Completely possible the DA have set themselves up to lose voters on both sides, supporters unhappy with DANC and people who have never been supporters who back the ANC to maintain the GNU.

It's going to be really difficult for the DA to get a good electoral outcome, the media will be as hostile to the DA as it always is too.

The DA walking away now just to make you happy about them "not going hardball" is stupid and I think you know this. If they did walk away and the other dodgy fucks take the seats, you'll howl even louder!

I was just posting my opinion, they can do what they like. Knowingly taking a bad deal usually works out badly though. The ANC aren't the good guys either, they're dodgy fucks too.

I would've laughed if the DA left Ramaphosa high and dry, I've hated the ANC my entire life. You picked your side in Durban when I was growing up. Have you ever wondered why so many DA reps both black and white come from Durban? Half the DA leaders have come from Durban, none from the three Cape provinces. Half the DA cabinet ministers are from Durban, not KZN just Durban. People from that part of SA knew what the ANC really was decades before everyone else did, the ANC went on a mass murdering spree through Durban in the 80s and early 90s, they killed 10s of thousands. Ever wondered why the DA has had electoral pacts with the IFP both times it has had a leader from Durban?

[Calculon]

This is the first time DA have had a seat at the table and the ANC need them.

The problem is the voters have ensured that's not the case. They have 4 other options. 1. minority government, (wouldn't work but is an option) 2. the minnow herd (also wouldn't work imo, but maybe a bit more stable). 3. EFF and probably the PA (probably would be a stable government just not a good one) 4. MK (total chaos).

Think about it from an ANC supporter/member point of view. If the ANC keeps sinking are you going to stick with the DA or pick a different option? What conditions would get the ANC more votes? I think the ANC is 100% unsalvageable, but that's not want ANC supporters/members think. There is a chance they add more votes but more on that below ...

I think voters will give them a chance and if it has no meaningful effect, then they can just blame the ANC.

When they're in government with the ANC? No chief. The DA are going to keep going with this until they're taking electoral damage. It's an extremely risky strategy. The electoral damage is I think locked in if they maintain this long term, DANC is now a real thing, a large amount of DA supporters are known to strongly dislike DANC. So they need to convince people who have never supported the DA that it's the DA improving things and not the ANC.

You know as well as I that in the UK people who had never voted Tory, voted Tory in 2015 to preserve the coalition. This tanked the Lib Dems, ending the coalition, this is one of the main reasons the Lib Dems lost seats and the Tory vote grew. Then what came after was a total shit show. Completely possible the DA have set themselves up to lose voters on both sides, supporters unhappy with DANC and people who have never been supporters who back the ANC to maintain the GNU.

It's going to be really difficult for the DA to get a good electoral outcome, the media will be as hostile to the DA as it always is too.

The DA walking away now just to make you happy about them "not going hardball" is stupid and I think you know this. If they did walk away and the other dodgy fucks take the seats, you'll howl even louder!

I was just posting my opinion, they can do what they like. Knowingly taking a bad deal usually works out badly though. The ANC aren't the good guys either, they're dodgy fucks too.

I would've laughed if the DA left Ramaphosa high and dry, I've hated the ANC my entire life. You picked your side in Durban when I was growing up. Have you ever wondered why so many DA reps both black and white come from Durban? Half the DA leaders have come from Durban, none from the three Cape provinces. Half the DA cabinet ministers are from Durban, not KZN just Durban. People from that part of SA knew what the ANC really was decades before everyone else did, the ANC went on a mass murdering spree through Durban in the 80s and early 90s, they killed 10s of thousands. Ever wondered why the DA has had electoral pacts with the IFP both times it has had a leader from Durban?

I don't think this is right, percentage Tory votes hardly changed between the 2010 and 2015 elections, Labour's actually increased a bit but due to FPP they lost seats. Lib dems lost quite a bit but that's because some of those who voted for them saw them as propping up a Tory government that abolished tuition fees, they lost the PR vote, austerity - not that I agree with that POV. Anyway, the DA could lose votes if they are seen as ineffective in the GNU but where would those votes go, not to the ANC, EFF or MK. They lost votes to the PA in the election but the PA is also in the GNU. I think you're being unduly pessimistic it you think their vote is going to tank in the next election

[_Os_]

I don't think this is right, percentage Tory votes hardly changed between the 2010 and 2015 elections, Labour's actually increased a bit but due to FPP they lost seats.

If you take one thing from me on elections it is this: ignore the percentages of the vote, look at the actual votes.

Tories added 600k votes. FPTP punishes smaller parties that aren't geographically concentrated (Lib Dems and Greens), their vote to seat ratio is higher than Tories/Labour (for the Greens they're literally converting millions of votes into a single seat). It's the opposite for the big parties (Tories/Labour), any votes they add have a disproportionate positive impact, (compare the 2017 and 2019 elections, and see the completely different outcomes for the Tories on a 300k vote increase). 2010 compared to 2015:
2010: Tories 10.7m, Labour 8.6m, Lib Dems 6.8m
2015: Tories 11.3m, Labour 9.3m, Lib Dems 2.4m

But because it's FPTP you need to look at the seats too.
Lib Dems seat losses: 27 to the Tories, 12 to Labour, 10 to SNP.
Labour seat losses: 40 to SNP, 8 to the Tories,
Conservative seat losses: 10 to Labour, 1 to UKIP.

In other words the difference was that the Tories convinced enough Lib Dems to vote Tory to preserve the coalition and enough Lib Dems gave up. Which added 27 Lib Dem seats to the Tory total, and gave the Tories a majority, the post 2015 shit show then happened.

Still don't believe me? This is Twickenham, a solid Lib Dem seat from 1997 to 2015, Vince Cable held the seat someone who wasn't unknown. 2015 was the highest Tory vote since 1992, and that was likely with them losing 2k votes to UKIP (ie the Tories gained about 7k votes mostly from the Lib Dems).
2010: Lib Dems 32.4k, Tories 20.3k, Labour 4.5k, UKIP 868, Green 674, BNP 654
2015: Tories 25.6k, Lib Dems 23.5k, Labour 7k, UKIP 3k, Green 2.4

... It shows people can absolutely look at a coalition, decide they like it, then vote for the larger party in that coalition to maintain it, thereby ending the coalition.

Lib dems lost quite a bit but that's because some of those who voted for them saw them as propping up a Tory government that abolished tuition fees, they lost the PR vote, austerity - not that I agree with that POV. Anyway, the DA could lose votes if they are seen as ineffective in the GNU but where would those votes go, not to the ANC, EFF or MK. They lost votes to the PA in the election but the PA is also in the GNU. I think you're being unduly pessimistic it you think their vote is going to tank in the next election

I mean ... do you think the GNU isn't going to be passing legislation DA supporters aren't fans of? DA leaders have already warned that will happen. The ANC remains committed to BEE and EWC, it is in the deal that cadre deployment goes, but I'll believe that after it happens (certainly it's odd to say it's going then not replace DGs).

The DA is at saturation among minority voters. This election it switched back to most of its votes being from whites, because of apathy from other groups. The parties whites vote for are DA, VF+, ACDP, ASA, two of those are in the GNU and two aren't. PA took some coloured support, but again there's another coloured party not in the GNU, the NCC. There's always someone else to vote for, or apathy.

This is a bit more complex (I don't expect it manifest by 2029), but in coalitions if everyone knows they're going to be in that coalition afterwards, voters will gravitate to the party they think will negotiate the best bargain for them. The DA itself is a type of coalition, this is why when they were in opposition they never ran as a slate (like this "progressive alliance" monster the EFF and MK are putting together), it would mean support from the DA draining into other smaller parties because voters would know they would all be in the same opposition coalition afterwards (if the choice isn't DA vs Minority Front because they will be in a united opposition, an Indian voter is going to vote MF to give himself the best bargaining position within the opposition coalition). Now imagine the DA and VF+ are in the same governing coalition through multiple elections, the DA risks losing Afrikaans speaking white and coloured supporters to the VF+ who support the GNU, if people decide the VF+ is bargaining harder than the DA for them (PA also has a shot).

The DA's gamble is that it can get enough wins (stuff like Monk mentioned) to win over black voters. A lot of turbulence among people already voting for it is locked in.

... These are long posts (apologies), but I'm not being honest if I say there's no risks with this.

[Sandstorm]

Don’t apologise Ox, it’s very good info and a fascinating read. Keep going.

[assfly]

I'm a bit more optimistic.

6 months ago if you'd told me we'd have a GNU with DA in some key positions, I would have taken it.

[assfly]

I swear they gave Oom Pieter Groenewald the correctional services minister role just for a laugh. Those poor prisoners don't know what's going to hit them

[Blake]

I'm not quite as pessimistic as you Ox.

Yes, the DA didn't really get some of the ministries I wanted, but the ANC was never going to give up some of those.
At least the DA has a Deputy in some of those rooms now.

Hopefully the DA can make the most of what they have now and make a big splash about every little achievement.
They must also make a big pronouncements whenever they uncover anything dodgy on the books or get stymied by their efforts to reform the the departments.

The name of the game this election cycle is "Show, don't tell". Hopefully the DA ministries can actually deliver some tangibles that everyday, non-DA voters can see and experience. That will be a much more powerful than any election campaign. The key ministries are going to be Public Works and Infrastructure, Home Affairs, and Communication and Digital Technologies IMO.

Agriculture is niche, a PR minefield, and already has strong DA support. Not a lot to gain there. Even though John Deerehuizen has no experience there, it's probably a good thing he's there to try and keep that bomb defused. Basic Education is great for the country but not for the DA. The horizon to measure success is too long. The DA won't be able to show progress there for a decade at least when those kids graduate. And Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment is a similar hot-potato to Agriculture; where the DA minister is constantly going to have to mediate between business interests and activist groups and local communities. Another potential PR nightmare. So those 3 are duds.

This first 3 however, have massive PR upsides. If the DA can by some miracle transform them, and get them to run efficiently, those departments have the potential to impact the lives of non-DA voters in a real and tangible way. It will give some of the remaining ANC voters tacit permission structure to think that maybe voting for the DA next time isn't such a bad idea. If the ANC can work with them, maybe they aren't this evil thing I've been told for the last 20 years.

As for current DA voters not being in favour, anecdotally, I am yet to encounter any in my circles that are not excited by the prospect of the DA taking control of some departments, even if they aren't the major ones (yet). Most feel it's a step in the right direction.

[_Os_]

I'm not quite as pessimistic as you Ox.

Yes, the DA didn't really get some of the ministries I wanted, but the ANC was never going to give up some of those.
At least the DA has a Deputy in some of those rooms now.

Hopefully the DA can make the most of what they have now and make a big splash about every little achievement.
They must also make a big pronouncements whenever they uncover anything dodgy on the books or get stymied by their efforts to reform the the departments.

The name of the game this election cycle is "Show, don't tell". Hopefully the DA ministries can actually deliver some tangibles that everyday, non-DA voters can see and experience. That will be a much more powerful than any election campaign. The key ministries are going to be Public Works and Infrastructure, Home Affairs, and Communication and Digital Technologies IMO.

Agriculture is niche, a PR minefield, and already has strong DA support. Not a lot to gain there. Even though John Deerehuizen has no experience there, it's probably a good thing he's there to try and keep that bomb defused. Basic Education is great for the country but not for the DA. The horizon to measure success is too long. The DA won't be able to show progress there for a decade at least when those kids graduate. And Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment is a similar hot-potato to Agriculture; where the DA minister is constantly going to have to mediate between business interests and activist groups and local communities. Another potential PR nightmare. So those 3 are duds.

This first 3 however, have massive PR upsides. If the DA can by some miracle transform them, and get them to run efficiently, those departments have the potential to impact the lives of non-DA voters in a real and tangible way. It will give some of the remaining ANC voters tacit permission structure to think that maybe voting for the DA next time isn't such a bad idea. If the ANC can work with them, maybe they aren't this evil thing I've been told for the last 20 years.

As for current DA voters not being in favour, anecdotally, I am yet to encounter any in my circles that are not excited by the prospect of the DA taking control of some departments, even if they aren't the major ones (yet). Most feel it's a step in the right direction.

The big picture is a three way fight though. MK/EFF vs ANC vs DA.

This gets quite complex, I'll try and put it into simple terms. In polarised multi ethnic states it's common for a smaller party to attempt to replace a larger party by appeals to identity. The smaller party will always be far more extreme, maybe violent. In modern SA this is what the DA did to the NNP in an understated not explicit way, they appealed to whites and coloureds with the claim the NNP wasn't truly representing them anymore and had sold out. If the smaller party manages to replace the larger party, they tend to moderate towards a position similar to the party they replaced. The EFF and MK are currently doing this to the ANC and they're succeeding, their claim is the ANC has sold out to whites and are traitors etc. The EFF is maybe at its ceiling, but MK can still take more of the ANC vote. The GNU is going to increase that process, literally working with whites who oppose the ANC isn't a factor which will slow it down.

If you want the GNU to last it becomes hard for the DA to directly attack the ANC over corruption or whatever. Because that risks the ANC shedding more support, not to the DA but to the EFF and MK. The only way out for the ANC is to take credit for improvements the DA bring about, which is why not giving the DA much power is a bad move for the ANC and the GNU. The DA's fate is now tied to the ANC's to some degree, it wouldn't be surprising if they went soft on them, but the people who have made a bit of a mess are the ANC. I expect the DA will start attacking the EFF and MK a lot, Zuma and a handful of others aside they're mostly just fringe crazies who aren't responsible for the mess (those guys are sitting with the DA).

I know for a fact the DA leadership understands all this, half the DA's negotiating team were there when the NNP was eaten. I'm not convinced the ANC fully understand, they seem a bit clueless about what is happening, they're trying to do this by half measures, trying to keep crazy racists onboard by claiming to be only half in bed with the whites will not work (that's far to much for anyone who cares, all it has done is limit the GNU).

This is mainly a problem for the ANC at the moment (not hard to find ANC supporters who are pissed), but DA leaders have repeatedly said this will not be easy and DA supporters will have to swallow things they dislike. Giving the ANC support means: Not attacking dodgy ANC stuff, not opposing BEE and maybe some version of EWC (Ramaphosa is a massive fan of EWC), and in a worst case scenario the ANC shit the bed about losing racist supporters and starts trying to pass crazy legislation leaving the DA in a tough situation.

Which is why I've seen two DA leaders in interviews repeat that DA voters come first on their priority list then everyone else. Anything else risks really bad outcomes for the DA. Obviously you need to be allowed to get some wins for your supporters to shout about them.

[Blake]

Agree on the 3 way fight and the big players involved. There will be a Center Left ANC, a Center Right DA, and a extremist MK/EFF coalition...with a sprinkling of small parties all over the spectrum.

The ANC will continue to decline sure, and I contend that the remaining disgruntled ANC voters will either warm to the DA or stop voting. They will not go to the EFF or MK. If those parties appealed to them, they would have gone there already.

Maybe I'm wrong, but in my view MK is just a tribal vanity project for Zuma. Once he kicks it, he is 82 afterall, the party will fall into disarray, and their ineptitude will become apparent everywhere they had any bit of power. Similarly, the EFF is Julius Malema. Just like the ANCYL became irrelevant after he left, the EFF will also decline into obscurity when he eventually kicks it. But at 43 that is unlikely to be anytime soon. More likely is that he will run afoul of the law or taxman again and get into trouble that way.

I don't know if it's just me unplugging more and more from social media and media in general, but Malema's voice and influence seems to have declined since Zuma left office and EFF support went down. Not sure if that is coincidence or not.

[_Os_]

Agree on the 3 way fight and the big players involved. There will be a Center Left ANC, a Center Right DA, and a extremist MK/EFF coalition...with a sprinkling of small parties all over the spectrum.

The ANC will continue to decline sure, and I contend that the remaining disgruntled ANC voters will either warm to the DA or stop voting. They will not go to the EFF or MK. If those parties appealed to them, they would have gone there already.

Maybe I'm wrong, but in my view MK is just a tribal vanity project for Zuma. Once he kicks it, he is 82 afterall, the party will fall into disarray, and their ineptitude will become apparent everywhere they had any bit of power. Similarly, the EFF is Julius Malema. Just like the ANCYL became irrelevant after he left, the EFF will also decline into obscurity when he eventually kicks it. But at 43 that is unlikely to be anytime soon. More likely is that he will run afoul of the law or taxman again and get into trouble that way.

I don't know if it's just me unplugging more and more from social media and media in general, but Malema's voice and influence seems to have declined since Zuma left office and EFF support went down. Not sure if that is coincidence or not.

Agree on the EFF. They started out as an anti-Zuma project, they're not that anymore. The consistent theme is opposing the ANC from an extreme position, with the goal of replacing it. I don't think they realise that the uniforms and violent language scare most people. Still around 10% isn't nothing. It'll be interesting if Malema tries to pivot to an ethnic Sotho–Tswana play, there's more easy votes in ethnic politics than values based.

Disagree on the MK. They're under a year old, many people would not have heard of them before the election. Zuma is a negative for us, but things look a bit different if you're Zulu. They're on 15%, I reckon they can go 20%+. If they absorb enough ANC structures and have the money they could become something else, Zuma is starting to collect a lot of people who were on their own into one party. One of Malema's failings is that he's a dictator and doesn't like sharing. Zuma is generous it's one of the things which make him dangerous. If it all holds together without him also impossible to know, probably not, but hard to know what the party will look like in a year. There's too many unknowns for me to guess much of what happens to them.

Disagree on the ANC. It's going to be very difficult for the DA to take any of their voters, could even see a successful GNU reactivating their apathetic voters to vote ANC again. The voters in the ANC voting coalition that map quite well to the DA are both unreachable. The first are the black urban middle class, but they tend to be multi generational ANC and are in government jobs, they may be living in the same areas as DA voters but they attribute everything they have to the ANC. The second are struggling urban youth who want jobs, there's a values based offer to make to them problem is they go with the EFF's values. These are the two groups in the ANC coalition that are fully urbanised and have reduced ethnic loyalties, not much else on the table for the DA. You can see this with the failure of Rise Mzansi and BOSA, both were trying to attract black voters from a DA like position (values based, no ethnic element), compare their performance to MK. ASA is a similar story, probably mostly whites voting for it. Rise Mzansi/BOSA/ASA all got crazy funding, they weren't cash poor outfits going into this election.

DA. It would be a minor miracle if the DA grew in any significant way among black voters tbh, polling has always shown the DA could win 35%-ish but that support always becomes unreachable in terms of elections. A poll I put up earlier in the thread showing 40% of the electorate support an ANC-DA coalition is one example. Polls always show there's potential for the DA to be 30%+ but it never translates into votes. No one is really sure why this is the case. My view is this support is too thinly spread (not focused in one demographic or geographic area), easy to vote for a party when your whole community openly supports it which is only the case for the DA among minorities. The difference now is the DA is in government so it should be able to do real things as you say, but the DA has been in government in the Western Cape for awhile and black voters still aren't convinced there. In the Western cape the 20% who vote ANC and the 5% who vote EFF closely fit the black population (40% of the population with higher voter apathy than other groups and a younger average age).

[Sards]

I can't even pretend to understand how the future will look.

Are deputy ministers allocated according to representation . As oversight in important ministries where corruption can occur

[Sards]

Capetonians make sure your tanks are empty before the rain hits.

[assfly]

I know it's early days, but I do like the noises some of the new (non-ANC) MPs are making.

The way they can articulate their role, talk about priorities and challenges, be honest about what is achievable. It's quite encouraging. I know this is supposed to be normal, but after listening to various ANC idiots been interviewed over the years, they have set the bar very low.

[Sards]

Geez it was cold today. Left work at 11 to get warmed up at home under a blanket. Struggling with the cold.

[Sards]

I have drained my tanks 3 times
Gave up now. They are just a nuisance now.
Drained the pool at least 6 times. Just to limit water in my back yard. We had done major renovations just before winter and it has worked a treat. Still bloody cold. At least we have heat sources like aircons and fireplace. So can't complain. Had a lot of leaks develop in the front end of the house which we will address as soon as the rain stops. In 2 weeks time.
Winter in Cape Town is not for sissies. See water levels in our dams is around 72 percent as of Monday. Recon we will be good for the summer at the end of this rain spell . Filled up 8 percent in the last week. And then the rivers will still flow in for a week after the rains stop.

[Blake]

I have drained my tanks 3 times
Gave up now. They are just a nuisance now.
Drained the pool at least 6 times. Just to limit water in my back yard. We had done major renovations just before winter and it has worked a treat. Still bloody cold. At least we have heat sources like aircons and fireplace. So can't complain. Had a lot of leaks develop in the front end of the house which we will address as soon as the rain stops. In 2 weeks time.
Winter in Cape Town is not for sissies. See water levels in our dams is around 72 percent as of Monday. Recon we will be good for the summer at the end of this rain spell . Filled up 8 percent in the last week. And then the rivers will still flow in for a week after the rains stop.

Ja, I have a similar issue with my tanks and roof. 2 leaks sprouted that I'll have to get fixed as soon as the rain finally stops.

[Sandstorm]

Everyone I know in Cape Town has leaks at some time or another. Roofers in the Cape are clearly shit.

[Blake]

Everyone I know in Cape Town has leaks at some time or another. Roofers in the Cape are clearly shit.

Couldn't agree more.
I re-did my entire roof before I had my solar panels installed. It had 2 leaks before. A small fortune and 18 months later and the original 2 leaks are fixed but I have 2 new ones now.

[Sards]

Buckets

[Sards]

It sucks not having a bakkie anymore. But my hip issues are resolved. No more hip pain


I had to buy a trailer for the Haval tho.

[average joe]

Short man problems

[Sards]

Short man problems

Age

[OomStruisbaai]

Great news from our Minister of Sport
https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/natio ... -mckenzie/

Equal access to sport is key to transformation, says Gayton McKenzie
The sports minister says the focus should be on equality of access rather than equality of outcome
Transformation in sport should be achieved by improving access rather than pursuing demographic targets, sports, arts and culture minister Gayton McKenzie says.

In a written reply to a parliamentary question by EFF MP Thapelo Mogale about how he planned to tackle the slow pace of transformation in sport, McKenzie said the focus should be on “equality of access over equality of outcome”.

Mogale made the point that representation in rugby, cricket and other sporting codes was not a true reflection of SA's demographics and wanted to know what measures had been put in place “to ensure that sporting quotas are adhered to by the different sporting federations”.

McKenzie said he wanted to change the approach “because if we just keep doing the same things we’ve done before, then we are just going to get more of what we’ve been getting to date”.

“There has been an overemphasis over the years on focusing on what I might call ‘equality of outcome’ when it comes to transformation in sport, meaning that our society tends to look at the demographic profile of people who succeed at the upper and professional levels of sport, but by then it is already too late.

“What matters more is ‘equality of access’, which speaks to young people being able to participate and train in various sports from an early age on. Many professional tennis players, for example, started at the age of five. The game becomes second nature to such players,” McKenzie said.

“We see people from underprivileged communities succeeding in sports that don’t require a large investment in resources. To learn to play soccer, you just need an open patch of ground and a ball. To become a cricket bowler, you just need a ball. However, to be a batter, you need pads, a bat, a helmet, gloves, groin protector, and more. This is why we see our system producing many black bowlers of talent, but few batters. Equality of access if therefore the critical challenge.”

McKenzie said he had started the discussion with the department around building sporting facilities that could be located within accessible distance of clusters of schools. He was “shocked”, he said when taking office, to learn that only one in 10 schoolchildren were participating in sport.

Regarding the revival of physical education and the school sports system, McKenzie said it was clear from 2023’s school sport indaba “that there has been little to no progress in establishing sustainable school sport leagues in less privileged communities, which constitutes the vast majority of where our children are affected”.

He said a new memorandum of understanding with the department of basic education was currently being discussed to give more intensive focus to the establishment of school sports leagues and the setting up of structures to manage those leagues.

The minister said his department was also currently reviewing the club development programme, which has mainly focused on football and netball in both rural and urban areas. The aim of the programme was to create a bridge between informal and formal, mainstream sport and to address the obstacles that limit the participation of rural and township clubs from affiliating into mainstream sport.

“The result of this programme indicates a serious need of building capacity and addressing the infrastructure needs of clubs. The discussions, between rugby and cricket, have centred on creating a conducive space for township and rural clubs to be brought into the mainstream of their clubs," the minister said.

[assfly]

Some very positive noises from the new minister