What's going on in Ukraine?

[fishfoodie]

It would have been better if they'd made this decision weeks ago.

I'm not sure how long it will take to train up the crews, but there isn't too long to go, before the fields of Ukraine turn into muddy bogs.

The ideal scenario would be to smash thru the Orc lines, cutting off tens of thousands of their men, before it becomes impossible to move across these fields, & then fortify the new front; & prepare for the next time to use their new weapons.

[Uncle fester]

Too late for that and Ukraine would waste troops rushing. Best to hold off until summer/early autumn to do it properly.

[petej]

I think Ukraine should push the front around kreminna to gain fire control over the staroblisk rail line. If only to drag Russia away from other areas.

[Plim]

I’m lost on the tank/anti-tank balance. If UA can destroy even the best Russian tanks with shoulder-held missiles or drones or accurate artillery, could Putrid’s forces do the same or similar to Challengers or Leopards? I doubt the Rs’ weaponry is as good the West’s but aren’t all tanks vulnerable now?

[Uncle fester]

I’m lost on the tank/anti-tank balance. If UA can destroy even the best Russian tanks with shoulder-held missiles or drones or accurate artillery, could Putrid’s forces do the same or similar to Challengers or Leopards? I doubt the Rs’ weaponry is as good the West’s but aren’t all tanks vulnerable now?

Vulnerable if used unsupported.
Remains to be seen if Ukraine will do better than Russia in that regard.

[dkm57]

Western tanks have functioning armour, I think the Leopard can reportedly survive a direct hit, the Russian 'armour' pods were stuffed with cardboard if remember correctly from the early days. I also suspect a load of Ukrainian tankies and supports have already been already trained up in Poland and elsewhere. I think they have just been waiting for Sholz to be backed into a corner and forced into giving the go-ahead.

Also the Ukrainian seem to be a modern army so unlikely to make the same mistakes as the Russians, like sending in unsupported armour.

[fishfoodie]

Western tanks have functioning armour, I think the Leopard can reportedly survive a direct hit, the Russian 'armour' pods were stuffed with cardboard if remember correctly from the early days. I also suspect a load of Ukrainian tankies and supports have already been already trained up in Poland and elsewhere. I think they have just been waiting for Sholz to be backed into a corner and forced into giving the go-ahead.

Also the Ukrainian seem to be a modern army so unlikely to make the same mistakes as the Russians, like sending in unsupported armour.

This !

I think one of the major topics for academic discussion after this is all over, will be just what a moronic idea forming BTGs was.

If you're going to use tanks, you have to use them as an armored fist, supported by infantry, & part of a overall system. You don't split up the tanks you have across all the infantry units you have, & pretend that makes them more effective. There's a Napoleon story, where he asks one of his Generals to show how he's deployed his army to defend the border, & the General proceeds to spread them evenly across the entire border, & Napoleon asks him if he's trying to stop smuggling ? That's what the Orcs did when they created BTGs; they made an army only fit for stopping bandits, & smugglers.

The Orcs put them in BTGs & as soon as they came up against a modern army; they got annihilated, because there weren't enough of them, & there weren't enough infantry to stop a couple of guys with Anti-Tank weapons cooking them. The classic video of them driving into urban areas, with zero support, & getting picked off like ducks, shows what happens.

The problem for the Orcs now is that they're stuck with the BTG system, & if the Ukrainians don't play ball, & instead actually use their new tanks properly, Blitzkreig style, the Orcs won't be able to defend. The way they're trying to re-imagine the Maginot line 21st century style, shows just how devoid of ideas Orc High Command is

[Hellraiser]

I’m lost on the tank/anti-tank balance. If UA can destroy even the best Russian tanks with shoulder-held missiles or drones or accurate artillery, could Putrid’s forces do the same or similar to Challengers or Leopards? I doubt the Rs’ weaponry is as good the West’s but aren’t all tanks vulnerable now?

The Ukrainians will use screening infantry to deal with anti-tank units. Also all the Western tanks have night vision, fuck all of the Russian tanks (or infantry for that matter) do.

[tabascoboy]

And the leopards are free to roam across Ukraine.

Jan 30th: Leopards arrive in Ukraine
Jan 31st: Russia claim they have destroyed them all

[Hellraiser]

Western tanks have functioning armour, I think the Leopard can reportedly survive a direct hit, the Russian 'armour' pods were stuffed with cardboard if remember correctly from the early days. I also suspect a load of Ukrainian tankies and supports have already been already trained up in Poland and elsewhere. I think they have just been waiting for Sholz to be backed into a corner and forced into giving the go-ahead.

Also the Ukrainian seem to be a modern army so unlikely to make the same mistakes as the Russians, like sending in unsupported armour.

This !

I think one of the major topics for academic discussion after this is all over, will be just what a moronic idea forming BTGs was.

If you're going to use tanks, you have to use them as an armored fist, supported by infantry, & part of a overall system. You don't split up the tanks you have across all the infantry units you have, & pretend that makes them more effective. There's a Napoleon story, where he asks one of his Generals to show how he's deployed his army to defend the border, & the General proceeds to spread them evenly across the entire border, & Napoleon asks him if he's trying to stop smuggling ? That's what the Orcs did when they created BTGs; they made an army only fit for stopping bandits, & smugglers.

The Orcs put them in BTGs & as soon as they came up against a modern army; they got annihilated, because there weren't enough of them, & there weren't enough infantry to stop a couple of guys with Anti-Tank weapons cooking them. The classic video of them driving into urban areas, with zero support, & getting picked off like ducks, shows what happens.

The problem for the Orcs now is that they're stuck with the BTG system, & if the Ukrainians don't play ball, & instead actually use their new tanks properly, Blitzkreig style, the Orcs won't be able to defend. The way they're trying to re-imagine the Maginot line 21st century style, shows just how devoid of ideas Orc High Command is

The additional problem with the BTGs was they were all undermanned by about a third to begin with (some milbloggers like Stanimir Dobrev had identified this as early as Autumn 2021), as commanders were lying about troop staffing numbers and pocketing the pay of ghost units.

BTGs weren't a bad idea in theory for small scale rapid reaction operations of limited scope, but a fucking disaster waiting to happen in the context of a major land war.

[Hellraiser]

And the leopards are free to roam across Ukraine.

Jan 30th: Russia claim they have destroyed them all
Jan 31st: Leopards arrive in Ukraine

Fixed

[Hellraiser]

[fishfoodie]

BTGs weren't a bad idea in theory for small scale rapid reaction operations of limited scope, but a fucking disaster waiting to happen in the context of a major land war.

It's warfare by accountants !

If we've 1.234 tanks/per km of front, supported by 3.456 BTRs, & 40.123 infantry, then our model shows us able to defend that km.

The only problem is if your opponent decides to put 12x of their MBTs in that single km of front, & then they'll blow thru it, like it wasn't there. That's what reminded me of the Napoleon quote; his General wasn't thinking about what his opponent was going to do, instead he was just looking at how much jam he had, & how many slices of toast.

[tabascoboy]

I know this guy is a certifiable ranting lunatic, but wonder if the RU leadership are starting to get a bit antsy now too

[TB63]

[Hellraiser]

Officially confirmed: Germany will send 14 Leopard 2A6s to Ukraine.

[tabascoboy]

Summary of the livestream with Oleksiy Arestovych, former Ukraine’s Presidential Head of Office advisor, Day 335, January 24th. Kindly brought to you by Anastasiya: @Anastasiya1451A

Turkey blocking Sweden’s ascension to NATO & Russian provocations
After a far-right representative burned Koran in Sweden, Erdogan has again opposed Swedish ascension to NATO. This has a strong resemblance to the provocations organised by the Russian FSB, using far-right movements to alienate Turkey from the EU.

The previous bomb packages and packages with mutilated animal parts sent to Ukrainian and EU institutions in Europe were probably orchestrated by “Russian Imperial Movement”, which is linked to FSB and has close cooperation with the Swedish far-right. The same movement or other FSB proxies may stage further provocations targeting Muslims in the EU, as part of the Russian hybrid war against the West. Erdogan is facing elections in May and will be forced to respond to this kind of provocations until the end of the elections, but will probably not obstruct the NATO summit in June.

Belarus
Lukashenko claimed that Ukraine proposed a non-aggression pact. While Ukraine would like to avoid aggression from the Belarusian army, Ukraine wouldn’t attack Belarus. Zelensky once more reinforced that Ukraine didn’t and will not attack anyone, but also will not tolerate attempts to attack its territory. Ukraine will give adequate responses to any provocations & attempts to invade from the North.

Ukraine hopes that Belarus will not be coerced by Russia to enter the war and will preserve its independence in the face of the Russian threat.

️ Russian Gazprom Bank
The US will stop servicing Russian state-owned Gazprombank dollar corresponding accounts. This was the main Russian bank that was operating with dollars and performing essential transactions with gas & buying military equipment. This is another sanctions measure affecting the Russian economy and military purchases. Any illegal transactions with dollars done by the Russian Federations will be easily detectable and earn further sanctions against Russia.

More at https://wartranslated.com/day-335-janua ... broadcast/

[Jock42]

About bloody time.
Are the Leopards tested in combat to verify their high rep?

I don't think so. They were used by the Canadians in Afgan but L2 v Hilux doesn't really count.

[Jock42]

Western tanks have functioning armour, I think the Leopard can reportedly survive a direct hit

I suppose it depends on what us hitting it. The only thing that has killed a C2 in combat is a C2.

[Uncle fester]

About bloody time.
Are the Leopards tested in combat to verify their high rep?

I don't think so. They were used by the Canadians in Afgan but L2 v Hilux doesn't really count.

That's pretty much what I'm getting at.

At least the M1 is somewhat road tested.

[robmatic]

About bloody time.
Are the Leopards tested in combat to verify their high rep?

Turkey has lost a few (possibly as many as 10) of the older type in Syria to anti-tank missiles and IEDs.

[petej]

About bloody time.
Are the Leopards tested in combat to verify their high rep?

I don't think so. They were used by the Canadians in Afgan but L2 v Hilux doesn't really count.

That's pretty much what I'm getting at.

At least the M1 is somewhat road tested.

I think you are over estimating the t62 and the skills of a drunk russian tank crew and underestimating tooled up taliban and their hilux.

[Jock42]

I don't think so. They were used by the Canadians in Afgan but L2 v Hilux doesn't really count.

That's pretty much what I'm getting at.

At least the M1 is somewhat road tested.

I think you are over estimating the t62 and the skills of a drunk russian tank crew and underestimating tooled up taliban and their hilux.

I'm definitely not underestimating the latter

[Hellraiser]

About bloody time.
Are the Leopards tested in combat to verify their high rep?

Turkey has lost a few (possibly as many as 10) of the older type in Syria to anti-tank missiles and IEDs.

2A4s which haven't been upgraded since the 1980s. The US lost plenty of Abrams in Iraq and Afghanistan to ATGMs and IEDs. Tanks of any description are not invulnerable, but the better the tank, the better the survivability.

[Hellraiser]

About bloody time.
Are the Leopards tested in combat to verify their high rep?

I don't think so. They were used by the Canadians in Afgan but L2 v Hilux doesn't really count.

That's pretty much what I'm getting at.

At least the M1 is somewhat road tested.

Ask any tanker and they will tell you the Leo 2 is a great bit of kit.

[fishfoodie]

About bloody time.
Are the Leopards tested in combat to verify their high rep?

Turkey has lost a few (possibly as many as 10) of the older type in Syria to anti-tank missiles and IEDs.

2A4s which haven't been upgraded since the 1980s. The US lost plenty of Abrams in Iraq and Afghanistan to ATGMs and IEDs. Tanks of any description are not invulnerable, but the better the tank, the better the survivability.

The situation there, was very similar to what the Orcs had when they took their unsupported MBTs inside cities.

If you travel along predictable routes, without significant screening units, it doesn't matter how fucking good your armor is, because your opponent is just going to pile more explosives into their IEDs, until they fuck you up !

[Flockwitt]

Enormous different between Leopards as noted above. In relative terms an A4 will struggle against a T-90, an A6 or 7 will have it for breakfast. But there's a lot of other key elements like the software suits they're getting and the optics, particularly thermals for night fighting. A real time plotter of enemy and friendly tanks in conjunction with an anti-tank IFV like Bradleys with the same battle view in a combined arms suite and it's all a different ball game.

Another other point is that the upgrades to the Leopards are modular. Easy for a bunch of the older stuff to get various face lifts.

[Sandstorm]

Another other point is that the upgrades to the Leopards are modular. Easy for a bunch of the older stuff to get various face lifts.

Germany giving the thumbs-up for Leopards is the game-changer. There are more than 2000 in service amongst other Western European nations (especially in the Nordics) and they can now also send any older Leopards to Ukraine in support.

[Hellraiser]

Enormous different between Leopards as noted above. In relative terms an A4 will struggle against a T-90, an A6 or 7 will have it for breakfast. But there's a lot of other key elements like the software suits they're getting and the optics, particularly thermals for night fighting. A real time plotter of enemy and friendly tanks in conjunction with an anti-tank IFV like Bradleys with the same battle view in a combined arms suite and it's all a different ball game.

Another other point is that the upgrades to the Leopards are modular. Easy for a bunch of the older stuff to get various face lifts.

Yep, there's already some chatter that 2A4 L/44s may be swapped out for L/55s. Which would negate pretty much any advantage the T-90 might have. And there is significant issues with new T-90s, they are having to scavenge optics which are two generations out of date from T-72s because sanctions are biting hard.

[fishfoodie]

It looks like there's been a big recruitment drive amongst Moscow Taxi drivers

[Hellraiser]

Another other point is that the upgrades to the Leopards are modular. Easy for a bunch of the older stuff to get various face lifts.

Germany giving the thumbs-up for Leopards is the game-changer. There are more than 2000 in service amongst other Western European nations (especially in the Nordics) and they can now also send any older Leopards to Ukraine in support.

The Germans are going to provide at least another company's worth of 2A4s that Rheinmetall is currently refurbing. The Spanish are looking to provide 53 2A4s that are currently in storage but all operable, 20 good to go and 33 in need of some work.

[Hellraiser]

So Lazerpig, after the absolute car crash "Roundtable with Gonzalo Lira" stream last week, contacted the SBU to find out if Lira was still in Ukraine. It's fairly well known that Lira was arrested in Kharkiv last Spring by the SBU, just not the details, beyond Paedo Ritter making wild accusations that he'd been assassinated by Azov operatives when he went radio silent for a few days. It turns out that Lira had been paid by the Russians to go around photographing AFU artillery and mortar positions in and around the city, and the SBU thus picked him up. He promptly shat himself and sold out five Russian saboteurs/collaborators in a plea deal to avoid life imprisonment. Initially he agreed to house arrest in Kharkiv but became so paranoid that the Russians might assassinate him (which became NATO in his Youtube videos ) that he requested to be deported and was subsequently put on a train to Poland while being babysat by an SBU agent until they crossed the border. He is now living in the Netherlands.

Lira is still claiming he's in Kharkiv.

[_Os_]

So Lazerpig, after the absolute car crash "Roundtable with Gonzalo Lira" stream last week, contacted the SBU to find out if Lira was still in Ukraine. It's fairly well known that Lira was arrested in Kharkiv last Spring by the SBU, just not the details, beyond Paedo Ritter making wild accusations that he'd been assassinated by Azov operatives when he went radio silent for a few days. It turns out that Lira had been paid by the Russians to go around photographing AFU artillery and mortar positions in and around the city, and the SBU thus picked him up. He promptly shat himself and sold out five Russian saboteurs/collaborators in a plea deal to avoid life imprisonment. Initially he agreed to house arrest in Kharkiv but became so paranoid that the Russians might assassinate him (which became NATO in his Youtube videos ) that he requested to be deported and was subsequently put on a train to Poland while being babysat by an SBU agent until they crossed the border. He is now living in the Netherlands.

Lira is still claiming he's in Kharkiv.

I had to Google what you were on about here.
https://www.thedailybeast.com/gonzalo-l ... ting-coach

That whole right wing sphere on social media (seems to exist on Youtube and Twitter only?), is heavily infiltrated by Russia imo. The reach of personalities is often outsized and they're cheap to buy (either directly or anonymously through their e-begging bowls). I've seen it in the SA online space as well, people who were pro Ukraine in 2014 or didn't care, who are now pro Russia (it's known Russia has upped their psyops campaign in Africa). It's low hanging fruit for Russia, grifters not earning much who have a strong narcissistic streak to be doing what they're doing, they're easily bought. Hasn't worked though, supporting Russia in public is just too much of a minority position to not be an instant red flag (in SA polling shows 75%-80% backing Ukraine, anyone backing Russia gets hammered in the replies/comments).

This Lira guy seems next level. The red flag for someone being a full Russian agent is if they have an ethnic Russian wife, not sure of his wife's background.

[Calculon]

. Hasn't worked though, supporting Russia in public is just too much of a minority position to not be an instant red flag (in SA polling shows 75%-80% backing Ukraine, anyone backing Russia gets hammered in the replies/comments).

.

Is that really true? South African Twitter, possibly the dumbest part of the internet, seems to be full of pro Russian idiots

[_Os_]

. Hasn't worked though, supporting Russia in public is just too much of a minority position to not be an instant red flag (in SA polling shows 75%-80% backing Ukraine, anyone backing Russia gets hammered in the replies/comments).

.

Is that really true? South African Twitter, possibly the dumbest part of the internet, seems to be full of pro Russian idiots

Yes, Twitter is our preferred mode of sending rubbish into the internet. Next time you see a sly pro-Russian tweet check the replies, the ones with the most positive reactions are always some version of "Russia is a shithole, worse than SA".

As for polling, this is the best polling on the question I've seen, it asks the Ukraine question 3 different ways, it's 75%-80% support for Ukraine (including from ANC voters), with half the rest "don't know". SA has a government radically at odds with the views of the population, for a load of historic reasons you know well enough (even then only about 25% of adults are actually still bothering to vote ANC).
https://www.thebrenthurstfoundation.org ... d-only.pdf

[Calculon]

I’m lost on the tank/anti-tank balance. If UA can destroy even the best Russian tanks with shoulder-held missiles or drones or accurate artillery, could Putrid’s forces do the same or similar to Challengers or Leopards? I doubt the Rs’ weaponry is as good the West’s but aren’t all tanks vulnerable now?

The Ukrainians will use screening infantry to deal with anti-tank units. Also all the Western tanks have night vision, fuck all of the Russian tanks (or infantry for that matter) do.

Tbf, many Russian tanks do have thermals. Hopefully most of the A4 leopards will be somewhat modernized before they are delivered to Ukraine

[laurent]

I’m lost on the tank/anti-tank balance. If UA can destroy even the best Russian tanks with shoulder-held missiles or drones or accurate artillery, could Putrid’s forces do the same or similar to Challengers or Leopards? I doubt the Rs’ weaponry is as good the West’s but aren’t all tanks vulnerable now?

The Ukrainians will use screening infantry to deal with anti-tank units. Also all the Western tanks have night vision, fuck all of the Russian tanks (or infantry for that matter) do.

Tbf, many Russian tanks do have thermals. Hopefully most of the A4 leopards will be somewhat modernized before they are delivered to Ukraine

They lost a lot of those and Thales close to 400 (https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/a ... pment.html) is not providing parts anymore.

[Hellraiser]

I’m lost on the tank/anti-tank balance. If UA can destroy even the best Russian tanks with shoulder-held missiles or drones or accurate artillery, could Putrid’s forces do the same or similar to Challengers or Leopards? I doubt the Rs’ weaponry is as good the West’s but aren’t all tanks vulnerable now?

The Ukrainians will use screening infantry to deal with anti-tank units. Also all the Western tanks have night vision, fuck all of the Russian tanks (or infantry for that matter) do.

Tbf, many Russian tanks do have thermals. Hopefully most of the A4 leopards will be somewhat modernized before they are delivered to Ukraine

They can't repair or replace Western parts due to sanctions so if they break they have to replace them with domestic stuff that is two generations out of date. Sosna-U and Irbis-K don't exist in large quantities and can't be produced fast or at scale, plus they lost a lot of tanks equipped with them already.

[Uncle fester]

This "fo real"?

[tabascoboy]

2/4 The enemy is demoralized by losses, which is why they are bringing additional reinforcements, but we will see in the nearest days if they will be able to throw them for another large assault.

3/4 It's known to us that they are trying to return wounded people to the frontlines just two days after the injury. Some squads and platoons sustained 80-90% casualties which significantly demoralizes the enemy.

4/4 The situation is still difficult but more stable: the enemy continues to replenish their losses with additional manpower. They have lost advantages that they were able to get during the first two days