Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Posted: Tue Mar 07, 2023 9:13 pm
Needless to say but psychopaths make terrible soldiers. Perfect for brutalising civilians though. All the Russians are good for.
Needless to say but psychopaths make terrible soldiers. Perfect for brutalising civilians though. All the Russians are good for.
They have also Putin light on their doorstep. Unless the Turkish opposition gets a win in may they are going to be rather preoccupied.fishfoodie wrote: Wed Mar 08, 2023 9:32 pm Has Greece made any offers to transfer some of their Leopard2's to Ukraine ?
They have ~300 A4s & A6s, & given they're on their uppers, financially, if the US were to underwrite the transfer, & they're in working order it's a lot cheaper than taking 300x Abrams out of storage & making them ready, & shipping them to Ukraine with all the associated workshops & spares etc
No, Turkey.fishfoodie wrote: Wed Mar 08, 2023 9:32 pm Has Greece made any offers to transfer some of their Leopard2's to Ukraine ?
They have ~300 A4s & A6s, & given they're on their uppers, financially, if the US were to underwrite the transfer, & they're in working order it's a lot cheaper than taking 300x Abrams out of storage & making them ready, & shipping them to Ukraine with all the associated workshops & spares etc
Yeah, but 1,300 MBTs they can't afford to support, & if push comes to shove, there's no way that Greece won't be supported by NATO, & the EU ahead of a Turkey that is pandering to Islamic fundamentalists.Hellraiser wrote: Wed Mar 08, 2023 10:42 pmNo, Turkey.fishfoodie wrote: Wed Mar 08, 2023 9:32 pm Has Greece made any offers to transfer some of their Leopard2's to Ukraine ?
They have ~300 A4s & A6s, & given they're on their uppers, financially, if the US were to underwrite the transfer, & they're in working order it's a lot cheaper than taking 300x Abrams out of storage & making them ready, & shipping them to Ukraine with all the associated workshops & spares etc
Turkey is also a member of NATO.fishfoodie wrote: Wed Mar 08, 2023 11:41 pmYeah, but 1,300 MBTs they can't afford to support, & if push comes to shove, there's no way that Greece won't be supported by NATO, & the EU ahead of a Turkey that is pandering to Islamic fundamentalists.Hellraiser wrote: Wed Mar 08, 2023 10:42 pmNo, Turkey.fishfoodie wrote: Wed Mar 08, 2023 9:32 pm Has Greece made any offers to transfer some of their Leopard2's to Ukraine ?
They have ~300 A4s & A6s, & given they're on their uppers, financially, if the US were to underwrite the transfer, & they're in working order it's a lot cheaper than taking 300x Abrams out of storage & making them ready, & shipping them to Ukraine with all the associated workshops & spares etc
... plus the whole Greek / Turkey shit is so last century, with both Countries having much bigger problems than Cyprus !
A lot of the current tension is basically due to Erdogan being a massive prick (I suspect there would have been some sort of manufactured diplomatic confrontation prior to May's election but the earthquake has probably scuppered that) but generally speaking nationalists in both Greece and Turkey have a long tradition of willy-waving at each other.Biffer wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 6:31 amTurkey is also a member of NATO.fishfoodie wrote: Wed Mar 08, 2023 11:41 pmYeah, but 1,300 MBTs they can't afford to support, & if push comes to shove, there's no way that Greece won't be supported by NATO, & the EU ahead of a Turkey that is pandering to Islamic fundamentalists.
... plus the whole Greek / Turkey shit is so last century, with both Countries having much bigger problems than Cyprus !
You don’t seem to understand the depth of mistrust in that part of the world.
Easier said than done and the local elites are dependent on Russian patronage.Slick wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 10:27 am I don't know much about that part of the world, but I really thought some of the more restive regions and countries around Russia would have had a bit of a pop by now.
Yep. That and the officials are rather nervous about jumping out of windows of high buildings.robmatic wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 10:59 amEasier said than done and the local elites are dependent on Russian patronage.Slick wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 10:27 am I don't know much about that part of the world, but I really thought some of the more restive regions and countries around Russia would have had a bit of a pop by now.
And of getting a nice tea...Flockwitt wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 11:15 amYep. That and the officials are rather nervous about jumping out of windows of high buildings.robmatic wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 10:59 amEasier said than done and the local elites are dependent on Russian patronage.Slick wrote: Thu Mar 09, 2023 10:27 am I don't know much about that part of the world, but I really thought some of the more restive regions and countries around Russia would have had a bit of a pop by now.
"Every day of the city's defence allows us to win time to prepare reserves and prepare for future offensive operations. At the same time, in their fight for this fortress, the enemy is losing the most prepared and capable part of their army – the Wagner [Group’s] assault units."
Tragedy. Fcuk Putin._Os_ wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 12:01 pm No way of knowing if this is true obviously, but fits enough of what we're seeing to be possible.
Korea ended with the same border as existed at the start, & turned both sides into armed camps.It's worth remembering that the Korean War never technically ended.Brazil wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 3:11 pm I was speaking with a pal who works at NATO yesterday about Bakhmut. His view was that it's Verdun for both sides but, importantly, that it's playing out for Russia as it did for Imperial Germany, i.e. they're suffering disproportionate casualties. He also said that he thinks this will end in a Korea scenario, with a ceasefire after stalemate. However, I wonder whether we might not see this play out as Vietnam in the end, with Russia cutting it's losses and leaving it's proxies to their fate. Loss of Crimea might well see that, if Ukraine can pull it off.
Russia have no answer to Ukraine's Kherson offensive strategy, of slowly grinding Russian entrenched positions down with superior technology (they have less fires than Russia, but they're far more accurate than Russia), avoiding pitched battles and using manoeuvre warfare in limited ways when there's an opening for it. Russia's current answer is to flood the contact points with bodies and dig trenches, that's getting them a stagnant frontline but it's costing them huge amounts of KIA. There's a danger for Ukraine in Bakhmut, it's a pitched battle and if Ukraine loses 1 for every 7 Russians but the Ukrainian losses are higher grade troops, then there could be an issue for Ukraine, this is what a Ukrainian battalion commander in Bakhmut said more or less (posted it recently on this thread).Brazil wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 3:11 pm I was speaking with a pal who works at NATO yesterday about Bakhmut. His view was that it's Verdun for both sides but, importantly, that it's playing out for Russia as it did for Imperial Germany, i.e. they're suffering disproportionate casualties. He also said that he thinks this will end in a Korea scenario, with a ceasefire after stalemate. However, I wonder whether we might not see this play out as Vietnam in the end, with Russia cutting it's losses and leaving it's proxies to their fate. Loss of Crimea might well see that, if Ukraine can pull it off.
One of the reasons I said this was madness from the get go. They have no win condition, which is why there's no off ramp. The entire thing is based on having their cake and eating it too and had no way of working if the West opposed it, which was always going to happen for the same reason Iraq's invasion of Kuwait was opposed (if it's allowed, then there's a risk of so many conflicts it'll look like WW3).Brazil wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 3:47 pm What's interesting is that any Russian climbdown still leaves them in the same situation as they are now - suffering sanctions and diminished in the eyes of the world and particularly China and India on whom they're dependent. They really don't have an off-ramp and arguably haven't since the initial failure of the invasion.
It's a good post Os but I'll just put this into context with Syrskyi's quote above. It's tough for the Bahkmut defenders, especially the reconstituted Asov brigade that is holding the southern flank and haven't given up one inch of ground since they were moved in, but while it's rough for say 3,000 troops there, there's 30,000 guesstimate Ukranian troops being actively trained by NATO on modern weapons and tactics. There are sound military reasons why Ukraine have made this stand._Os_ wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 4:33 pmThere's a danger for Ukraine in Bakhmut, it's a pitched battle and if Ukraine loses 1 for every 7 Russians but the Ukrainian losses are higher grade troops, then there could be an issue for Ukraine, this is what a Ukrainian battalion commander in Bakhmut said more or less (posted it recently on this thread).Brazil wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 3:11 pm I was speaking with a pal who works at NATO yesterday about Bakhmut. His view was that it's Verdun for both sides but, importantly, that it's playing out for Russia as it did for Imperial Germany, i.e. they're suffering disproportionate casualties. He also said that he thinks this will end in a Korea scenario, with a ceasefire after stalemate. However, I wonder whether we might not see this play out as Vietnam in the end, with Russia cutting it's losses and leaving it's proxies to their fate. Loss of Crimea might well see that, if Ukraine can pull it off.
Media platform Megh Updates reports that Pakistan plans to transfer 44 T-80UD tanks to Ukraine in exchange for financial assistance from the West.
In total, in the period 1997-1999, Ukraine sold 320 tanks to Pakistan.
I put a lot of store in what a Ukrainian battalion commander actually in Bakhmut is quoted as saying, that holding it is depleting Ukrainian offensive capacity.Flockwitt wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 5:45 pmIt's a good post Os but I'll just put this into context with Syrskyi's quote above. It's tough for the Bahkmut defenders, especially the reconstituted Asov brigade that is holding the southern flank and haven't given up one inch of ground since they were moved in, but while it's rough for say 3,000 troops there, there's 30,000 guesstimate Ukranian troops being actively trained by NATO on modern weapons and tactics. There are sound military reasons why Ukraine have made this stand._Os_ wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 4:33 pmThere's a danger for Ukraine in Bakhmut, it's a pitched battle and if Ukraine loses 1 for every 7 Russians but the Ukrainian losses are higher grade troops, then there could be an issue for Ukraine, this is what a Ukrainian battalion commander in Bakhmut said more or less (posted it recently on this thread).Brazil wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 3:11 pm I was speaking with a pal who works at NATO yesterday about Bakhmut. His view was that it's Verdun for both sides but, importantly, that it's playing out for Russia as it did for Imperial Germany, i.e. they're suffering disproportionate casualties. He also said that he thinks this will end in a Korea scenario, with a ceasefire after stalemate. However, I wonder whether we might not see this play out as Vietnam in the end, with Russia cutting it's losses and leaving it's proxies to their fate. Loss of Crimea might well see that, if Ukraine can pull it off.
Well, my point was I'll take the Ukrainian army commander's word on the situation - he's calling the shots, has decided Bahkmut is in fact worth investing in, and as we are aware Syrskyi's is nobody's fool._Os_ wrote: Sat Mar 11, 2023 12:27 amI put a lot of store in what a Ukrainian battalion commander actually in Bakhmut is quoted as saying, that holding it is depleting Ukrainian offensive capacity.Flockwitt wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 5:45 pmIt's a good post Os but I'll just put this into context with Syrskyi's quote above. It's tough for the Bahkmut defenders, especially the reconstituted Asov brigade that is holding the southern flank and haven't given up one inch of ground since they were moved in, but while it's rough for say 3,000 troops there, there's 30,000 guesstimate Ukranian troops being actively trained by NATO on modern weapons and tactics. There are sound military reasons why Ukraine have made this stand._Os_ wrote: Fri Mar 10, 2023 4:33 pm
There's a danger for Ukraine in Bakhmut, it's a pitched battle and if Ukraine loses 1 for every 7 Russians but the Ukrainian losses are higher grade troops, then there could be an issue for Ukraine, this is what a Ukrainian battalion commander in Bakhmut said more or less (posted it recently on this thread).
You know the Russian tactics in Bakhmut I expect. They use penal troops and conscripts herding them forward on pre-planned routes with leaders given a GPS device they must follow (or risk execution etc), their purpose is to conduct recon of Ukrainian positions through being fired on and dying. That's why giving them WW2 gear doesn't matter, their purpose is to die. Then the next wave goes in, and then the next. Ukrainians have multiple defencive lines they can fall back to, and then advance into once a wave is defeated to defend against the next wave. But their defences get fully discovered, it's unavoidable. Then at night professional Russian forces attack. Lets say Ukraine lose 1 for every 7 Russians they kill (this is at the higher end of the ratios I've seen for Bakhmut), most of what Russia are losing are people they have invested nothing in, meanwhile Ukraine are losing some of their best and most experienced infantry. If all 3k hardened Ukrainian veterans die and they kill 20k mostly useless Russians is that a good trade?
Vuhledar looks like a better model for Ukraine. They're making Russia attack through open ground, forcing Russia to use vehicles. Using MRLS/artillery delivered mines to saturate that ground, ATGMs from max distance, artillery using spotter drones. Ukraine have destroyed a huge amount of Russian armour on that front. Stripping Russia of its armour means Russia loses the war, even if Russia is happy to keep adding to its corpse mountain it's impossible to do anything without armour.
From Russia's perspective Bakhmut looks much better than Vuhledar. The Bakhmut strategy gives Russia a chance if they're prepared to lose 500k+ men and destroy multiple cities. The Vuhledar strategy is weighted towards Ukraine, Russia doesn't have enough high technology equipment capable of winning that fight (or on current evidence even being in the fight at all). The more open the terrain is the more Russia is losing, that's how its gone so far.
Mariupol was the only real Russian win so far, and that was a Bakhmut type situation. Russia seems capable of medieval sieges only, its legitimate to wonder if Ukraine removing themselves from those situations when able to do so would be better (there's nothing left to save in Bakhmut now).
1/ Dozens of mobilised Russians from Volgograd are reported to have died after being sent to fight in Ukraine without being given any ammunition. Their deaths are said to have been covered up subsequently, but independent Russian journalists have reported on their story.
Series of tweets combined for easy reading at https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1634677247448686592