NPR

Openside wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:07 pm The problem with this situation is it is very hard to know who to believe. You see figures that the average age of those dying is 82.5 and then an article above(which I haven't read) that seems to suggest that those below 65 are the worst hit, they can't both be true...

It seems to me the only defence of lockdown is to prevent hospitals being overrun which didn't happen the first time round and seemingly hospitalisations are way down on Mar/Apr - research even suggests lockdown in the areas since the national lockdown has seen infections rise!!

what does it all mean?

Well

1. Infections will continue to rise for a time after restrictions start, because the time from infection to symptoms can be two weeks.
2. Hospitalisations will trail infections by another week or so, as symptoms until hospitalisation takes time as well.
3. The initial surge of infections recently was in younger people so fewer hospitalisations. But numbers are going up in older age groups as well. If we try and nip it in the bud early, which we didn't do in March, we can hopefully get it under control a lot quicker and avoid restrictions all through the winter.

Biffer wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:08 pm

Globus wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 11:47 am Well; you've got to be Einstein or have degrees in astrophysics and psychology to understand the Tier rules and how they affect this and that in the UK now, especially as England, Scotland Wales and Northern Ireland have different ones.

Perhaps the only saving grace for me is that the MIL cannot leave Lancashire!

I've got one in Astrophysics and one in economics so I'm fine. But the messaging is clearer up here - not perfect but better. England is rapidly turning into a complete shitshow.

Hmm, I think it’s pretty much the opposite, you’ve got to be really fucking thick not to understand them. It’s just a shit excuse.

Biffer wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:13 pm

Openside wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:07 pm The problem with this situation is it is very hard to know who to believe. You see figures that the average age of those dying is 82.5 and then an article above(which I haven't read) that seems to suggest that those below 65 are the worst hit, they can't both be true...

It seems to me the only defence of lockdown is to prevent hospitals being overrun which didn't happen the first time round and seemingly hospitalisations are way down on Mar/Apr - research even suggests lockdown in the areas since the national lockdown has seen infections rise!!

what does it all mean?

Well

1. Infections will continue to rise for a time after restrictions start, because the time from infection to symptoms can be two weeks.
2. Hospitalisations will trail infections by another week or so, as symptoms until hospitalisation takes time as well.
3. The initial surge of infections recently was in younger people so fewer hospitalisations. But numbers are going up in older age groups as well. If we try and nip it in the bud early, which we didn't do in March, we can hopefully get it under control a lot quicker and avoid restrictions all through the winter.

Hmm not convinced - it the average age of covid deaths is 82.5 we are saddling our kids with decades of debt to delay the deaths of a few very elderly people. A price not worth paying in my view.

Openside wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:07 pm The problem with this situation is it is very hard to know who to believe. You see figures that the average age of those dying is 82.5 and then an article above(which I haven't read) that seems to suggest that those below 65 are the worst hit, they can't both be true...

It seems to me the only defence of lockdown is to prevent hospitals being overrun which didn't happen the first time round and seemingly hospitalisations are way down on Mar/Apr - research even suggests lockdown in the areas since the national lockdown has seen infections rise!!

what does it all mean?

Err OS in certain areas hospitals were over run in the fitst surge. However there was a diktat to not tell the press.
It is worse in my region atm as there is no capacity due to routine activities being carried out. It should be a national approach, for Boris to ignore a national circuit break is an abomination.
Follow the science my slender derriere

Openside wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:35 pm Hmm not convinced

Your approach since 1 March really.

Openside wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:35 pm

Biffer wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:13 pm

Openside wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:07 pm The problem with this situation is it is very hard to know who to believe. You see figures that the average age of those dying is 82.5 and then an article above(which I haven't read) that seems to suggest that those below 65 are the worst hit, they can't both be true...

It seems to me the only defence of lockdown is to prevent hospitals being overrun which didn't happen the first time round and seemingly hospitalisations are way down on Mar/Apr - research even suggests lockdown in the areas since the national lockdown has seen infections rise!!

what does it all mean?

Well

1. Infections will continue to rise for a time after restrictions start, because the time from infection to symptoms can be two weeks.
2. Hospitalisations will trail infections by another week or so, as symptoms until hospitalisation takes time as well.
3. The initial surge of infections recently was in younger people so fewer hospitalisations. But numbers are going up in older age groups as well. If we try and nip it in the bud early, which we didn't do in March, we can hopefully get it under control a lot quicker and avoid restrictions all through the winter.

Hmm not convinced - it the average age of covid deaths is 82.5 we are saddling our kids with decades of debt to delay the deaths of a few very elderly people. A price not worth paying in my view.

Slight jump of topic there. I'm just clarifying the points you alluded to in your first post.

Biffer wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 10:47 am A short article on Sweden

https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/ ... o-covid-19

Sweden is a high-trust society, where people follow the rules. And yet its approach is based on the idea that, as covid-19 is here for a long time, asking too much of people will lower compliance and thus spread the disease. Low-trust societies may need a different balance between coercion and self-policing but they, too, need sustainable rules.

Neither the US nor the UK are high trust societies. Significant chunks of the UK population would not follow the rules if they were laid out the same way as Sweden.

Other than of course the clear evidence that with the first lockdown the country did indeed lockdown and obey the rules, the government were actually caught by surprise at the level of compliance.

It seems to be the go to on why we cant do a Sweden because, well just because.

Vallance now Presenting ONS possible from models as actual infections to get closer to his 50,000 a day.


The dishonesty is palpable now.


F ucking hell.

C69 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:03 pm

Openside wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:07 pm The problem with this situation is it is very hard to know who to believe. You see figures that the average age of those dying is 82.5 and then an article above(which I haven't read) that seems to suggest that those below 65 are the worst hit, they can't both be true...

It seems to me the only defence of lockdown is to prevent hospitals being overrun which didn't happen the first time round and seemingly hospitalisations are way down on Mar/Apr - research even suggests lockdown in the areas since the national lockdown has seen infections rise!!

what does it all mean?

Err OS in certain areas hospitals were over run in the fitst surge. However there was a diktat to not tell the press.
It is worse in my region atm as there is no capacity due to routine activities being carried out. It should be a national approach, for Boris to ignore a national circuit break is an abomination.
Follow the science my slender derriere

So they’re not lying now because there was a diktat to lie earlier in the year.


That’s not really convincing.

Oh, and if hospitals were being “over run “ earlier in the year why weren’t the nightingales engaged with lots of patients.

You’re a liar. Tone it down please Bimbo.

Lol


Sorry forgot to put the known and notorious antisemite on ignore

C69 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:44 pm Lol


Sorry forgot to put the known and notorious antisemite on ignore

Another lie, it doesn’t cover for you lying about a health scare. What an awful thing to do.

Yeah all my posts are lies..... Wait a minute....

Nightingale hospitals in London were barely used.
I guess partially because they didnt actually need all those ventilators.

Apparently Royal Surrey has less than half a dozen covid patients according to a doc I know who works there. Very empty at present.

Although the p/100k stats are on the brink of the 100 mark.

https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey ... 107522.amp

With one already in tier 2. Elmbridge.

Elmbridge : 133.8 (183), 94.3 (129)

Mole Valley : 97.4 (85), 52.7 (46)

Surrey Heath : 92.9 (83), 57.1 (51)

Waverley : 92.6 (117), 61.7 (78)

Epsom and Ewell : 80.6 (65), 57.1 (46)

Woking : 79.4 (80), 64.5 (65)

Guildford : 79.2 (118), 63.8 (95)

Runnymede : 77.2 (69), 51.4 (46)

Reigate and Banstead : 69.2 (103), 29.6 (44)

Spelthorne : 67.1 (67), 61.1 (61)

Tandridge : 49.9 (44), 48.8 (43

Pfizer reckon they will have enough data to get their vaccine approved by the 3rd week of November

Glaston wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:24 am Nightingale hospitals in London were barely used.
I guess partially because they didnt actually need all those ventilators.

Partly that, and partly the lockdown was perhaps more successful than expected

Glaston wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:24 am Nightingale hospitals in London were barely used.
I guess partially because they didnt actually need all those ventilators.

Did we actually have staff for those Nightingale hospitals anyway?

robmatic wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:14 am

Glaston wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:24 am Nightingale hospitals in London were barely used.
I guess partially because they didnt actually need all those ventilators.

Did we actually have staff for those Nightingale hospitals anyway?

Nurses at surgeries and small clinics all over London were on stand-by. My mate’s wife was one of them in March.

robmatic wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:14 am

Glaston wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:24 am Nightingale hospitals in London were barely used.
I guess partially because they didnt actually need all those ventilators.

Did we actually have staff for those Nightingale hospitals anyway?

Suitably qualified staff with the right experience and skills?


No

C69 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 4:37 pm

robmatic wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 11:14 am

Glaston wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:24 am Nightingale hospitals in London were barely used.
I guess partially because they didnt actually need all those ventilators.

Did we actually have staff for those Nightingale hospitals anyway?

Suitably qualified staff with the right experience and skills?


No

Experience to offer oxygen and help with proning? I can do that!!

Wales....

To announce 2 week lockdown

And dismantling their Cardiff Valentine hospital.

C69 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 1:03 pm

Openside wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 12:07 pm The problem with this situation is it is very hard to know who to believe. You see figures that the average age of those dying is 82.5 and then an article above(which I haven't read) that seems to suggest that those below 65 are the worst hit, they can't both be true...

It seems to me the only defence of lockdown is to prevent hospitals being overrun which didn't happen the first time round and seemingly hospitalisations are way down on Mar/Apr - research even suggests lockdown in the areas since the national lockdown has seen infections rise!!

what does it all mean?

Err OS in certain areas hospitals were over run in the fitst surge. However there was a diktat to not tell the press.
It is worse in my region atm as there is no capacity due to routine activities being carried out. It should be a national approach, for Boris to ignore a national circuit break is an abomination.
Follow the science my slender derriere

Like the press would pass up the opportunity to scare monger, besides tough to follow the science when there are two diametrically opposite camps.

C69 wrote: ↑Fri Oct 16, 2020 3:44 pm Lol


Sorry forgot to put the known and notorious antisemite on ignore

christ are you still peddling that typo??

Openside wrote: ↑ Like the press would pass up the opportunity to scare monger, besides tough to follow the science when there are two diametrically opposite camps.

I guess the size and quality of the camps doesn't matter

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:47 pm

Openside wrote: ↑ Like the press would pass up the opportunity to scare monger, besides tough to follow the science when there are two diametrically opposite camps.

I guess the size and quality of the camps doesn't matter

Or those on the payroll and those not.


There’s very few virologists and biologist on sage btw.

JM2K6 wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 6:47 pm

Openside wrote: ↑ Like the press would pass up the opportunity to scare monger, besides tough to follow the science when there are two diametrically opposite camps.

I guess the size and quality of the camps doesn't matter

An excellent dissection of why "Great Barrington Declaration" is sack of shit supportted by a grand total of three scientists.

You can see why douche nozzles like the bimbot love it.

There is no, two camps; there's one camp & a bunch of loons, bought & paid for, & whoring themselves to the right

And so it begins, nothing guaranteed to make people not participate more than this.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54586897

And they wonder why no one trusts them?

Another step closer to a police state...cunts the lot of them .

ASMO wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:35 am And so it begins, nothing guaranteed to make people not participate more than this.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54586897

And they wonder why no one trusts them?

Another step closer to a police state...cunts the lot of them .

In two minds about this. It seems to me that there are a lot of people not isolating - I’ve said before that students in particular round here appear to be just going about their normal lives but with masks on - so how do we get compliance? But of course folk won’t use the app if they do this.

Students seem to be a real problem but we seem to be beating about the bush saying this

Isn't Sweden supposed to be a in a post-apocalypse type scenario now? Bodies stacking up in the streets?

We will look back in horror.. (if legally allowed to of course)

Lemoentjie wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:21 am Isn't Sweden supposed to be a in a post-apocalypse type scenario now? Bodies stacking up in the streets?

Sweden are now following the same plan as Germany. Proper test and trace, selection of restrictions, not populated substantially by twats.

Slick wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:24 am

ASMO wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:35 am And so it begins, nothing guaranteed to make people not participate more than this.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54586897

And they wonder why no one trusts them?

Another step closer to a police state...cunts the lot of them .

In two minds about this. It seems to me that there are a lot of people not isolating - I’ve said before that students in particular round here appear to be just going about their normal lives but with masks on - so how do we get compliance? But of course folk won’t use the app if they do this.

Students seem to be a real problem but we seem to be beating about the bush saying this

This can't be from the app - because from the app there's no way for the authorities to get an identity. They're talking about the manual test & trace

Biffer wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 10:40 am

Lemoentjie wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 9:21 am Isn't Sweden supposed to be a in a post-apocalypse type scenario now? Bodies stacking up in the streets?

Sweden are now following the same plan as Germany. Proper test and trace, selection of restrictions, not populated substantially by twats.

This is a useful graph looking at death rates and economic performance in EU - link to wider article about Sweden in FT. Sweden had about same economic pain as their Nordic neighbours but at a far higher cost in terms of deaths - about 3 times more deaths per million. Not sure if bodies are stacking up but if they are then the piles are higher in Sweden than in Norway, Finland and Denmark.

UK and Spain have highest deaths per million and largest fall in GDP. Just goes to show that without public health there is no economic health, those who have done best economically have had the better PH responses. And before folk go off on explaining this because the UK is more populous, density of population, older, fatter etc read this article that makes it clear these arguments don't hold much water. Its hard not to conclude that decision making by various Govs have led to the resulting death rates and/or economic harm and the UK Gov is one of the worst performers .... by far!



https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-1112-0

No doubt someone will be along shortly to highlight the filthy leftist nature of that the rag the Financial Times.

Biffer wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:13 am No doubt someone will be along shortly to highlight the filthy leftist nature of that the rag the Financial Times.

It’s a globalist mouth piece for sure.

UK and Spain have highest deaths per million and largest fall in GDP. Just goes to show that without public health there is no economic health, those who have done best economically have had the better PH responses. And before folk go off on explaining this because the UK is more populous, density of population, older, fatter etc read this article that makes it clear these arguments don't hold much water. Its hard not to conclude that decision making by various Govs have led to the resulting death rates and/or economic harm and the UK Gov is one of the worst performers .... by far!

So tight long lockdowns don’t work....

Ymx wrote: ↑Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:35 am Apparently Royal Surrey has less than half a dozen covid patients according to a doc I know who works there. Very empty at present.

Although the p/100k stats are on the brink of the 100 mark.

https://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/surrey ... 107522.amp

With one already in tier 2. Elmbridge.

Elmbridge : 133.8 (183), 94.3 (129)

Mole Valley : 97.4 (85), 52.7 (46)

Surrey Heath : 92.9 (83), 57.1 (51)

Waverley : 92.6 (117), 61.7 (78)

Epsom and Ewell : 80.6 (65), 57.1 (46)

Woking : 79.4 (80), 64.5 (65)

Guildford : 79.2 (118), 63.8 (95)

Runnymede : 77.2 (69), 51.4 (46)

Reigate and Banstead : 69.2 (103), 29.6 (44)

Spelthorne : 67.1 (67), 61.1 (61)

Tandridge : 49.9 (44), 48.8 (43

It would be interesting to see the age profile. If there is a high number in the 17-22 age bracket then they are probably students oop north, and no longer actualy residing in Slurry.

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:25 am

Biffer wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:13 am No doubt someone will be along shortly to highlight the filthy leftist nature of that the rag the Financial Times.

It’s a globalist mouth piece for sure.

Yes their unnecessary use of facts means their analysis is clearly biased.

Deveron Boy wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 12:57 pm

Bimbowomxn wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:25 am

Biffer wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 11:13 am No doubt someone will be along shortly to highlight the filthy leftist nature of that the rag the Financial Times.

It’s a globalist mouth piece for sure.

Yes their unnecessary use of facts means their analysis is clearly biased.

Yeah, they’re the most factual.

Slick wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 7:24 am

ASMO wrote: ↑Sun Oct 18, 2020 6:35 am And so it begins, nothing guaranteed to make people not participate more than this.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54586897

And they wonder why no one trusts them?

Another step closer to a police state...cunts the lot of them .

In two minds about this. It seems to me that there are a lot of people not isolating - I’ve said before that students in particular round here appear to be just going about their normal lives but with masks on - so how do we get compliance? But of course folk won’t use the app if they do this.

Students seem to be a real problem but we seem to be beating about the bush saying this

The blame isn't on the students though. In Oxford this weekend it was "matriculation" which is essentially a pub crawl with gowns on. The university offered a "virtual matriculation" but of course students wanted to go out and about with their new friends and parents wanted to picture their wee dears in robes in Oxford. You could do it virtually in a room on your own but you're missing out and nobody likes to miss out.

Who could have predicted students would party, try and squeeze the most of the restricted experience, mingle with anyone and everyone, try to enjoy being 18-21 away from home? Everyone. Who forced them to go to university? The government did to keep the real estate and education bubble afloat and not give universities money as they'd go bust without this farce of incubating and spreading covid in every major university city/town. They're all doing virtual lectures anyway. All this for the monies.