The Brexit Thread

[The sun god]

That was one of the Brexit wanks Patterson who started that shite. Said something stupid like trade wrh Ireland was tiny when he was looking at the trade from NI rather than the whole of the UK. The export figure was of course much higher pre Brexit

Bunch of either complete idiots or corrupt bastards. Your guess as good as mine.

[dpedin]

[Insane_Homer]

Taking back Control!!!

[dpedin]

Although car production is falling world wide the UK seems particularly hard hit since 2016 - I wonder why?

[dpedin]

Read thread .... this is where our lack of growth has gone!

[dpedin]

More Brexiteers rowing back from Brexit! This was not the Brexit I wanted says prominent Brexiteer Lord Wolfson as his company suffers from the Brexit he voted for. Why can't they just say we fecked up and we are sorry?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63573988

[sturginho]

Brexit isnt bad, it just hasn't been done properly!

[Hal Jordan]

More Brexiteers rowing back from Brexit! This was not the Brexit I wanted says prominent Brexiteer Lord Wolfson as his company suffers from the Brexit he voted for. Why can't they just say we fecked up and we are sorry?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63573988

Sunk cost fallacy, or genuine true believer fervour.

[Mahoney]

Although car production is falling world wide the UK seems particularly hard hit since 2016 - I wonder why?

That’s a dreadful graph:

• Y index not going to 0
• No context prior to 2016 - is this a new trend?
• No comparator - what’s been happening in other car producing nations?

Perhaps the trend is new from 2016, significant, and unique to the UK, but that graph does not show it.

[dpedin]

Although car production is falling world wide the UK seems particularly hard hit since 2016 - I wonder why?

That’s a dreadful graph:

• Y index not going to 0
• No context prior to 2016 - is this a new trend?
• No comparator - what’s been happening in other car producing nations?

Perhaps the trend is new from 2016, significant, and unique to the UK, but that graph does not show it.

Don't disagree about the index not going to 0 - contact SMMT to criticise. Although this impacts on the visual interpretation of the graph it doesn't negate the figure provided.

As I said in my post car production fell world wide since 2016 but for wider context in EU it fell by 33% in the UK it has fallen 56% since the same date. Whilst the implication is that this is related to Brexit decision and impact on car manufacturing in UK it is also true that correlation does not imply causation. However .....

I would humbly suggest that the 6 years of data begins to suggests this is a trend.

[tabascoboy]

Useless Eustice speaks, don't think this is news to anyone, especially our farmers but - well, from the horse's mouth...

[Insane_Homer]

FML

[Dinsdale Piranha]

Although car production is falling world wide the UK seems particularly hard hit since 2016 - I wonder why?

That’s a dreadful graph:

• Y index not going to 0
• No context prior to 2016 - is this a new trend?
• No comparator - what’s been happening in other car producing nations?

Perhaps the trend is new from 2016, significant, and unique to the UK, but that graph does not show it.

Don't disagree about the index not going to 0 - contact SMMT to criticise. Although this impacts on the visual interpretation of the graph it doesn't negate the figure provided.

As I said in my post car production fell world wide since 2016 but for wider context in EU it fell by 33% in the UK it has fallen 56% since the same date. Whilst the implication is that this is related to Brexit decision and impact on car manufacturing in UK it is also true that correlation does not imply causation. However .....

I would humbly suggest that the 6 years of data begins to suggests this is a trend.

About half of that drop is Honda closing the Swindon plant. That would have happened anyway but might have been brought forward because of Brexit. Production at Swindon had been dropping for almost a decade.

The EU trade deal with Japan removed the import duties on vehicles so Honda UK is then competing with Honda Japan for sales to the EU.

[Hal Jordan]

FML

His problem is he has to appeal to the Red Wall gammons to get elected. They deserted Labour for the Tory headbangers who promised an easy Brexit, with a done deal and jam all day every day, and to win them back he can't just tell the truth, he has to be vague enough to keep them happy that sovereignty is safe, without going full ERG and pissing off the voters that are more realistic about the shitshow.

[fishfoodie]

His problem is he has to appeal to the Red Wall gammons to get elected. They deserted Labour for the Tory headbangers who promised an easy Brexit, with a done deal and jam all day every day, and to win them back he can't just tell the truth, he has to be vague enough to keep them happy that sovereignty is safe, without going full ERG and pissing off the voters that are more realistic about the shitshow.

I posted a video awhile back from one of the think tanks; & one of the interesting things they extracted from the many surveys, was that UK voters identified far more strongly with their Brexit position, than with any political allegiance; so there's no such thing as a Labour-Brexiteer, or Labour-Remainer; instead they are Leavers, or Remainers who usually vote for Labour, & no Labour leader can ignore that reality.

There is much less of a conundrum for the Tories,because they've essentially expelled all Remainers.

[Insane_Homer]

Taking control of our borders has gone so well, we've now resorted to paying the French to do it for us.

[Insane_Homer]

His problem is he has to appeal to the Red Wall gammons to get elected. They deserted Labour for the Tory headbangers who promised an easy Brexit, with a done deal and jam all day every day, and to win them back he can't just tell the truth, he has to be vague enough to keep them happy that sovereignty is safe, without going full ERG and pissing off the voters that are more realistic about the shitshow.

Does he though, recent polls consistently indicate otherwise?

He's taking a massive risk alienating a lot of his base support by pandering to a group of diminishing hardcore Brexshit racist loon hangers-on, who would never vote for him regardless.

Brexit has proved to be an expensive cluster fuck, to intimate he's got some secret plan to actually make it work is utter hair-brained bollocks.

[I like neeps]

His problem is he has to appeal to the Red Wall gammons to get elected. They deserted Labour for the Tory headbangers who promised an easy Brexit, with a done deal and jam all day every day, and to win them back he can't just tell the truth, he has to be vague enough to keep them happy that sovereignty is safe, without going full ERG and pissing off the voters that are more realistic about the shitshow.

Does he though, recent polls consistently indicate otherwise?

He's taking a massive risk alienating a lot of his base support by pandering to a group of diminishing hardcore Brexshit racist loon hangers-on, who would never vote for him regardless.

Brexit has proved to be an expensive cluster fuck, to intimate he's got some secret plan to actually make it work is utter hair-brained bollocks.

Indeed hardcore brexiteers up norf will vote for the Farage/Tice reform party not labour.

Starmer needs to pounce on Jeremy Hunt and Eustace and senior Tories saying brexit is bad actually and stop pretending he can make the unworkable work.

[SaintK]

Rees-Mogg and the ERG will call this fake news I'm sure!

[dpedin]

Rees-Mogg and the ERG will call this fake news I'm sure!

Interesting it is YouGov poll given who helped found the company!

[sturginho]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... le-eu-deal

[dpedin]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... le-eu-deal

I'm still confused about what it is the hard line Brexiteers think they are protecting by not having better trading deals with the EU. The reality is in any trade deals we will have to align rules and regulations with our trading partners to some extent and given we are Johnny No Mates and small in comparison to most trading partners/blocs then we will inevitably have to accept someone's rules and regulations be it EU, US or Australia/NZ. This really is lunacy now, for the sake of the country and our economic health we need some adults in charge pretty quick.

[petej]

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... le-eu-deal

I'm still confused about what it is the hard line Brexiteers think they are protecting by not having better trading deals with the EU. The reality is in any trade deals we will have to align rules and regulations with our trading partners to some extent and given we are Johnny No Mates and small in comparison to most trading partners/blocs then we will inevitably have to accept someone's rules and regulations be it EU, US or Australia/NZ. This really is lunacy now, for the sake of the country and our economic health we need some adults in charge pretty quick.

Emotional not rational. The really painful thing will be being a rule taker when we were one of the rule makers (and admitting that brexit has cost us so much for no benefit). A much easier thing for those that haven't instigated brexit.

[tabascoboy]

The Observer reports that a major free trade agreement signed between Britain and Japan post-Brexit has been labelled a failure after government figures revealed exports had fallen since it came into force. In October 2020, then-trade secretary Liz Truss signed the deal, calling it a "landmark moment" for Britain. However, figures from the Department for International Trade show exports to Japan fell from £12.3bn to £11.9bn in the year to June 2022, the paper reports.

[Hal Jordan]

Something something Putin something something Ukraine something something look at Germany's GDP something something BELIEVE

[SaintK]

The Observer reports that a major free trade agreement signed between Britain and Japan post-Brexit has been labelled a failure after government figures revealed exports had fallen since it came into force. In October 2020, then-trade secretary Liz Truss signed the deal, calling it a "landmark moment" for Britain. However, figures from the Department for International Trade show exports to Japan fell from £12.3bn to £11.9bn in the year to June 2022, the paper reports.

...........but just think of the photo opportunities she had for her social media accounts. Made it all so worthwhile

[fishfoodie]

The Observer reports that a major free trade agreement signed between Britain and Japan post-Brexit has been labelled a failure after government figures revealed exports had fallen since it came into force. In October 2020, then-trade secretary Liz Truss signed the deal, calling it a "landmark moment" for Britain. However, figures from the Department for International Trade show exports to Japan fell from £12.3bn to £11.9bn in the year to June 2022, the paper reports.

...........but just think of the photo opportunities she had for her social media accounts. Made it all so worthwhile

The cost of all the photographers, & publicists following her everywhere, probably exceed the net benefit to the entire economy of the trade deal

[JM2K6]

FML

His problem is he has to appeal to the Red Wall gammons to get elected. They deserted Labour for the Tory headbangers who promised an easy Brexit, with a done deal and jam all day every day, and to win them back he can't just tell the truth, he has to be vague enough to keep them happy that sovereignty is safe, without going full ERG and pissing off the voters that are more realistic about the shitshow.

Pissing away our future and making life demonstrably worse for large numbers of people out of cowardice and a desire to appeal to a group of people who do not fucking vote Labour, woohoo

[Biffer]

Since we’ve signed our trade deal with Japan two years ago, our exports to Japan have decreased.

[dpedin]

Going well since we signed the suicide letter!

[Brazil]

FML

His problem is he has to appeal to the Red Wall gammons to get elected. They deserted Labour for the Tory headbangers who promised an easy Brexit, with a done deal and jam all day every day, and to win them back he can't just tell the truth, he has to be vague enough to keep them happy that sovereignty is safe, without going full ERG and pissing off the voters that are more realistic about the shitshow.

Pissing away our future and making life demonstrably worse for large numbers of people out of cowardice and a desire to appeal to a group of people who do not fucking vote Labour, woohoo

Whilst the logic is sensible, and accepts the reality that we're not going to be back any time soon, the strength of the rhetoric risks losing a significant constituency which is increasing every day as the cost of brexit is revealed. Whilst the press are clearly trying to set a trap for him, he doesn't need to be so bloody hard over on it every single time he's asked.

[petej]

His problem is he has to appeal to the Red Wall gammons to get elected. They deserted Labour for the Tory headbangers who promised an easy Brexit, with a done deal and jam all day every day, and to win them back he can't just tell the truth, he has to be vague enough to keep them happy that sovereignty is safe, without going full ERG and pissing off the voters that are more realistic about the shitshow.

Pissing away our future and making life demonstrably worse for large numbers of people out of cowardice and a desire to appeal to a group of people who do not fucking vote Labour, woohoo

Whilst the logic is sensible, and accepts the reality that we're not going to be back any time soon, the strength of the rhetoric risks losing a significant constituency which is increasing every day as the cost of brexit is revealed. Whilst the press are clearly trying to set a trap for him, he doesn't need to be so bloody hard over on it every single time he's asked.

I guess the assumption is outside of Scotland remain inclined voters don't have anywhere else to go. You have to suspect that the lib dems aren't taking a more pro European position as they don't want to take votes away from Labour.

[I like neeps]

Pissing away our future and making life demonstrably worse for large numbers of people out of cowardice and a desire to appeal to a group of people who do not fucking vote Labour, woohoo

Whilst the logic is sensible, and accepts the reality that we're not going to be back any time soon, the strength of the rhetoric risks losing a significant constituency which is increasing every day as the cost of brexit is revealed. Whilst the press are clearly trying to set a trap for him, he doesn't need to be so bloody hard over on it every single time he's asked.

I guess the assumption is outside of Scotland remain inclined voters don't have anywhere else to go. You have to suspect that the lib dems aren't taking a more pro European position as they don't want to take votes away from Labour.

I don't think that's true as Starmer and co are pretty hard brexit these days to not scare anyone off themselves. The Lib Dems current strategy is to hoover up the NIMBY affluent southerner vote who the Tories are losing and you don't do that by advocating remain politics. Their calculation is that single issue rejoin voters don't exist in big enough number to be viable. But cheesed off southern Tories are there for the taking.

[petej]

Whilst the logic is sensible, and accepts the reality that we're not going to be back any time soon, the strength of the rhetoric risks losing a significant constituency which is increasing every day as the cost of brexit is revealed. Whilst the press are clearly trying to set a trap for him, he doesn't need to be so bloody hard over on it every single time he's asked.

I guess the assumption is outside of Scotland remain inclined voters don't have anywhere else to go. You have to suspect that the lib dems aren't taking a more pro European position as they don't want to take votes away from Labour.

I don't think that's true as Starmer and co are pretty hard brexit these days to not scare anyone off themselves. The Lib Dems current strategy is to hoover up the NIMBY affluent southerner vote who the Tories are losing and you don't do that by advocating remain politics. Their calculation is that single issue rejoin voters don't exist in big enough number to be viable. But cheesed off southern Tories are there for the taking.

They aren't. They know it is a turd. The game they are playing is presenting a small as possible target to shitrags like the express, mail, telegraph and sun. It is a shame they have to do it.

Edit: you can't have the discussion on the costs of brexit until the government that instigated it is out of power. A different government will remove the gag from many public institutions and private companies.

[I like neeps]

[quote=petej post_id=247782 time=1669648427 user_id=2185]
[quote="I like neeps" post_id=247775 time=1669646137 user_id=208]
[quote=petej post_id=247753 time=1669636649 user_id=2185]


I guess the assumption is outside of Scotland remain inclined voters don't have anywhere else to go. You have to suspect that the lib dems aren't taking a more pro European position as they don't want to take votes away from Labour.
[/quote]

I don't think that's true as Starmer and co are pretty hard brexit these days to not scare anyone off themselves. The Lib Dems current strategy is to hoover up the NIMBY affluent southerner vote who the Tories are losing and you don't do that by advocating remain politics. Their calculation is that single issue rejoin voters don't exist in big enough number to be viable. But cheesed off southern Tories are there for the taking.
[/quote]

They aren't. They know it is a turd. The game they are playing is presenting a small as possible target to shitrags like the express, mail, telegraph and sun. It is a shame they have to do it.

Edit: you can't have the discussion on the costs of brexit until the government that instigated it is out of power. A different government will remove the gag from many public institutions and private companies.
[/quote]

Aside from the BBC there aren't any public institutions to remove the gag from and private companies/business groups daily lament brexit these days - they aren't gagged at all.

As the Tories have found out governing to placate the press doesn't work. Labour focusing on "clever politics" and not their principles will get in just as big of a mess.

[fishfoodie]

Sounds like the UK food production sector has about 5 years to go, before extinction.

The UK-Australia trade deal: ‘too much for far too little’

When the UK signed its first major post-Brexit trade deal with Australia last summer, the then trade secretary (and later prime minister) Liz Truss proclaimed it was a “win-win” that would slash tariffs, lower prices and improve choice.

But a year and a half after that jubilant announcement, the trade pact has been criticised by a series of politicians and officials who believe errors were made in the push to secure a UK-Australia deal signed by the culmination of the G7 summit in June 2021.

With Rishi Sunak now pledging to take a more patient approach to signing deals — including with India and membership of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership — business groups and trade experts are warning the UK must be more strategic when cutting future agreements, while also doing more to win public support at home for international trade.

According to multiple senior Whitehall officials, the Australia trade agreement was rushed through due to the hard political deadline set by Truss, combined with a lack of negotiating expertise and experience. “We were trying to move too fast, with not enough care,” one senior civil servant said.

The result was a pact that experts believe was tilted in Australia’s direction — and was particularly advantageous for its farming industry — because of the desire to get the first major post-Brexit deal over the line. George Eustice, the former environment secretary, admitted last month the deal “gave away far too much for far too little in return”.

...

https://www.ft.com/content/bb70437e-b56 ... 2424c0b0de

Of course; the ability to ditch this shitty deal, is another arrow in the quiver of the SNP, when it comes to pitching the advantages of Scottish Independance. !

[dpedin]

It really isn't going well is it! The loss of revenue to the UK Gov is just horrendous and one of the main underlying factors around why the Gov is trying to play hardball (misjudged badly) with the public sector pay. Feck knows what they think the next few years are going to be like, it must be awful if they are prepared to die in the ditch over nurses and ambulance pay. Buckle in guys!

[SaintK]

What everyone knows but the government can't admit to and repeatedly lie about

This morning the British Chambers of Commerce has published a damning report on how that trade deal (the trade and cooperation agreement, or TCA, to give it its formal title, is performing, and it’s damning.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ ... uk-firms

[Slick]

Sounds like the UK food production sector has about 5 years to go, before extinction.

The UK-Australia trade deal: ‘too much for far too little’

When the UK signed its first major post-Brexit trade deal with Australia last summer, the then trade secretary (and later prime minister) Liz Truss proclaimed it was a “win-win” that would slash tariffs, lower prices and improve choice.

But a year and a half after that jubilant announcement, the trade pact has been criticised by a series of politicians and officials who believe errors were made in the push to secure a UK-Australia deal signed by the culmination of the G7 summit in June 2021.

With Rishi Sunak now pledging to take a more patient approach to signing deals — including with India and membership of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership — business groups and trade experts are warning the UK must be more strategic when cutting future agreements, while also doing more to win public support at home for international trade.

According to multiple senior Whitehall officials, the Australia trade agreement was rushed through due to the hard political deadline set by Truss, combined with a lack of negotiating expertise and experience. “We were trying to move too fast, with not enough care,” one senior civil servant said.

The result was a pact that experts believe was tilted in Australia’s direction — and was particularly advantageous for its farming industry — because of the desire to get the first major post-Brexit deal over the line. George Eustice, the former environment secretary, admitted last month the deal “gave away far too much for far too little in return”.

...

https://www.ft.com/content/bb70437e-b56 ... 2424c0b0de

Of course; the ability to ditch this shitty deal, is another arrow in the quiver of the SNP, when it comes to pitching the advantages of Scottish Independance. !

In Oz at the moment and every conversation I have that brings up the current state of the U.K. (most) the locals are actively laughing in my face about this deal.

[PornDog]

It really isn't going well is it! The loss of revenue to the UK Gov is just horrendous and one of the main underlying factors around why the Gov is trying to play hardball (misjudged badly) with the public sector pay. Feck knows what they think the next few years are going to be like, it must be awful if they are prepared to die in the ditch over nurses and ambulance pay. Buckle in guys!

I know it will continue to compound, but that's actually less of an impact than I was expecting. £33bn to GDP is obviously a big hit, but for an economy the size of the UK's it could be much worse.