What's going on in Ukraine?

[tabascoboy]

Kinda lost track for a long time of RU senior officers claimed KIA but a Lieutenant Colonel added to the list

[Hellraiser]

Der Spiegel reporting that Germany has transferred 18 Leopard 2A6s and 40 Marders to Ukraine.

[inactionman]

Kinda lost track for a long time of RU senior officers claimed KIA but a Lieutenant Colonel added to the list

Aside from Stormin' Norman, many of the western military bigwigs have been pretty svelte.

Why are high-ranking Russian officers such massive fat bastards? They can't be eating all the embezzled kit, surely.

[tabascoboy]

A long analysis article but worth reading



Article URL = https://samf.substack.com/p/still-bakhmut?sd=pf


tl;dr the conclusion

Since the invasion Russia has had two major reappraisals of its strategy. The first came at the end of March 2022, after it had lost the battle for Kyiv and had to withdraw its forces away from northern Ukraine. This led to scaled down aspirations, both politically and militarily. The focus would be on the Donbas. Then six months later, after it had made little headway and its forces had been pushed back from Kharkiv oblast and lost ground in Kherson, there was a second reappraisal. This went in the opposite direction, reflecting pressure from hard-line nationalist critics. Putin doubled-down, raising the stakes politically by annexing four oblasts, mobilising 300,000 extra troops and beginning the campaign against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure.

Six months on again none of these measures have advanced Russia’s cause one whit. Ukraine has been badly hurt but its relative military position is improving as more Western supplies come in (albeit not as fast as it would like). Putin’s strategic choices have narrowed. Perhaps he will persevere in a Micawberish sort of way, hoping that something will turn up. The arguments against conceding that this venture has been disastrous remain profound and there is no evidence that his position in the Kremlin is under threat. Yet he and his generals must have some misgivings about the consequences of a successful Ukrainian offensive with so little to show for their own. The best bet is that he will insist that his generals continue on their current course, perhaps taking even more risks to get a victory of some sort. I would still, however, not be wholly surprised if at some point he put in an anxious call to his friend XI Jinping to ask about how he is getting on with his peace initiative.

[Hellraiser]

[_Os_]

One of the interesting 2nd/3rd order impacts of the war, was what about China. It was obvious Russia would have to rely on China once it was isolated, but that's not really a huge win for China (Russia has resources, but Russia's economy is nothing special there's no consumers for China to export to nor is there much high tech industry ... Russia is importing components from China for its military industry so Russia cannot add much to whatever China has already).

Tracking the UN votes shows how the war is going for China more widely. The smaller and the more periphery a country is, the more it has to pick a side and doesn't have room to abstain. The pro-Ukraine bloc has been slowly growing, and the pro-Russia bloc led by China has been unable to ever vote pro-Russia and there's been movement away from abstaining towards pro-Ukraine positions. The 2014 vote on opposing Russia annexing Crimea and supporting Ukraine's internationally recognised borders had: 100 approve, 11 against, 58 abstain, 24 absent. The vote in 2022 opposing Russia annexing all the other regions in Ukraine and supporting Ukraine's internationally recognised borders had: 143 approve, 5 against, 35 abstain, 10 absent.

The most recent UN vote had a majority for establishing a mechanism for Russia to pay war reparations to Ukraine, something quite far reaching that could end up literally making Russia pay for peace. This could exceed $100bn. China voted against, rather than its usual abstention and lost.

The longer it goes on the more countries do the maths and discover "the US and EU and friends, are most of the world economy they matter more to us than China". China must be keen on the war ending.

[Hellraiser]

[fishfoodie]

Kinda lost track for a long time of RU senior officers claimed KIA but a Lieutenant Colonel added to the list

Aside from Stormin' Norman, many of the western military bigwigs have been pretty svelte.

Why are high-ranking Russian officers such massive fat bastards? They can't be eating all the embezzled kit, surely.

I think Putin is a Shakespeare fan, & agrees with Caesar.

CAESAR: Let me have men about me that are fat;
Sleek-headed men and such as sleep o'nights:
Yond Cassius has a lean and hungry look;
He thinks too much: such men are dangerous.

ANTONY: Fear him not, Caesar; he's not dangerous;
He is a noble Roman, and well given.

[Hellraiser]

Joint maneuvers of the US, UK, Romanian, and Moldovan special operations forces have begun, the Moldovan Defense Ministry said, asking citizens to avoid speculation on the reasons for moving military equipment around the country.

“The exercises will be held at army training centers from March 27 to April 7 and are aimed at joint training and exchange of experience between Moldovan, Romanian, U.S., and British special forces soldiers, as well as increasing the level of interoperability between the participating contingents,” the Moldovan Defense Ministry statement says.

It was reported that the special forces from four countries will conduct advanced combat shooting exercises and parachute exercises under the Combined Exchange Training (JCET-2023) program.

The Moldovan Defense Ministry noted that military equipment would be transported during the exercises to training centers of the Moldovan army for maneuvers, and asked citizens to avoid on speculation as to the reason for this movement.

Moldovan Defense Minister Anatolie Nosatîi stressed in an interview published on Saturday, cited by the Moldpres agency, that the situation on the Moldovan border due to the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine is tense, but at present, there is no risk of a direct Russian attack on Moldova. Nosatîi added that his country “uses all diplomatic tools to strengthen its defense capabilities, including cooperation with the European Union” in this regard. “Sea Shield 23” drills in Romania

NATO troops are also holding exercises on the Romanian coast of the Black Sea, close to the Ukrainian border.

Naval forces practiced evacuating civilians from coastal areas in the Danube delta, which is the closest region to the Ukraine border.

The drills in Romania and Moldova are part of the “Sea Shield 23” exercises that involve 3,400 soldiers from countries across the NATO alliance including the United States and the United Kingdom. The exercises are due to continue until April 4.

[Guy Smiley]

That's a pretty firm line in the sand.

[fishfoodie]

Joint maneuvers of the US, UK, Romanian, and Moldovan special operations forces have begun, the Moldovan Defense Ministry said, asking citizens to avoid speculation on the reasons for moving military equipment around the country.

“The exercises will be held at army training centers from March 27 to April 7 and are aimed at joint training and exchange of experience between Moldovan, Romanian, U.S., and British special forces soldiers, as well as increasing the level of interoperability between the participating contingents,” the Moldovan Defense Ministry statement says.

It was reported that the special forces from four countries will conduct advanced combat shooting exercises and parachute exercises under the Combined Exchange Training (JCET-2023) program.

The Moldovan Defense Ministry noted that military equipment would be transported during the exercises to training centers of the Moldovan army for maneuvers, and asked citizens to avoid on speculation as to the reason for this movement.

Moldovan Defense Minister Anatolie Nosatîi stressed in an interview published on Saturday, cited by the Moldpres agency, that the situation on the Moldovan border due to the ongoing Russian invasion of Ukraine is tense, but at present, there is no risk of a direct Russian attack on Moldova. Nosatîi added that his country “uses all diplomatic tools to strengthen its defense capabilities, including cooperation with the European Union” in this regard. “Sea Shield 23” drills in Romania

NATO troops are also holding exercises on the Romanian coast of the Black Sea, close to the Ukrainian border.

Naval forces practiced evacuating civilians from coastal areas in the Danube delta, which is the closest region to the Ukraine border.

The drills in Romania and Moldova are part of the “Sea Shield 23” exercises that involve 3,400 soldiers from countries across the NATO alliance including the United States and the United Kingdom. The exercises are due to continue until April 4.

Moldovan's need to build up enough forces to surround all the Orc invaders, disarm them, & put them on sealed trains to Belarus.

Then an expedited entry to NATO, & their Nations security is 10,000% better.

[Uncle fester]

Alternatively, keep them there and let them leech Russian resources trying to keep them going.

[Hellraiser]

Looks like this chap is going to be the next Ukrainian ambassador to Hungary.

[Hellraiser]

Alternatively, keep them there and let them leech Russian resources trying to keep them going.

The issue is the Cobasna arms dump, not the 1,500 Russians troops there.

[fishfoodie]

Alternatively, keep them there and let them leech Russian resources trying to keep them going.

The issue is the Cobasna arms dump, not the 1,500 Russians troops there.

It'd me terrible if there were some kind of accidental firing of a HIMARS, that hit the ammo dump ..... but I'm sure the Moldovans would understand that accidents do happen .....

[Hellraiser]

Alternatively, keep them there and let them leech Russian resources trying to keep them going.

The issue is the Cobasna arms dump, not the 1,500 Russians troops there.

It'd me terrible if there were some kind of accidental firing of a HIMARS, that hit the ammo dump ..... but I'm sure the Moldovans would understand that accidents do happen .....

Ehhh, do you have any idea how much explosive material is stored there? An accident or attack would result in an explosion comparable in scale to nuclear bombing of Hiroshima.

[_Os_]

This war radically changes things in favour of Moldova defeating Transnistria/Russia.

After the Transnistria war Moldova adopted neutrality, the important point is that it's in the Moldovan constitution but (to my knowledge) isn't part of any international treaty. Moldova could decide to not be neutral. This neutrality came about because Moldovans weren't convinced conflict with Russia over Transnistria was worthwhile or winnable. The war was small, not many KIA and the outcome heavily tilted towards Russia, it became the model for Russia's annexations in Georgia and Ukraine. Over the last three decades neutrality has kept Moldova's military weak (they didn't want to provoke Russia), but Transnistria's military is now also a joke (their entire tank force is less than 20 T-64BVs) and the Russian force is much reduced. Only one of these has the ability to rebuild its force in Moldova and it's not Transnistria or Russia.

The big change is Ukraine will be strongly anti Russian for at least a generation. Ukraine was on Russia's side during the Transnistria war in the early 90s, but now says it will provide military support to Moldova if requested. There'll be no land corridor between Russia and Transnistria, it's surrounded with no way to upgrade or replace Soviet military junk, or resupply in a war. But in a war Moldova would be supported by Romania and likely other NATO/EU states.

If Moldova improve their military and do nothing else, that'll pressure Transnistria to cave.

The push factor for Moldovans doing something more radical will be the same as in Georgia/Ukraine/Belarus, they don't want to be poor as fuck and involuntary semi-alignment with Russia keeps them that way. The Moldovan government position is they're not fully independent because of Transnistria, they want a peaceful resolution, Transnistria can't become independent or be absorbed by Russia. Recent European history says when the Moldovan people lose their patience, protests happen followed by war.

[tabascoboy]

[fishfoodie]

The issue is the Cobasna arms dump, not the 1,500 Russians troops there.

It'd me terrible if there were some kind of accidental firing of a HIMARS, that hit the ammo dump ..... but I'm sure the Moldovans would understand that accidents do happen .....

Ehhh, do you have any idea how much explosive material is stored there? An accident or attack would result in an explosion comparable in scale to nuclear bombing of Hiroshima.

Even the Orcs aren't stupid enough to put it all in one big pile, it's dispersed across dozens of isolated igloos, with berms between them.

You take out one igloo, you get a nice big explosion, but it's designed to stop it propagating to the other bunkers.

[Biffer]

It'd me terrible if there were some kind of accidental firing of a HIMARS, that hit the ammo dump ..... but I'm sure the Moldovans would understand that accidents do happen .....

Ehhh, do you have any idea how much explosive material is stored there? An accident or attack would result in an explosion comparable in scale to nuclear bombing of Hiroshima.

Even the Orcs aren't stupid enough to put it all in one big pile, it's dispersed across dozens of isolated igloos, with berms between them.

You take out one igloo, you get a nice big explosion, but it's designed to stop it propagating to the other bunkers.

Because if there's anything the last year has taught us it's to trust Russian military design, maintenance and procedure.

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

AMX-10 RCs have arrived in Ukraine.

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

They've attached Kontakt-1 ERA to Leopard 2s.

Edit: or should I now say Leopard 2A4BV obr.2023

[Jock42]

20230329_211738.jpg (233.11 KiB) Viewed 1881 times

[TB63]

Leopard 2 already spotted by Russia..

[TB63]

[tabascoboy]

Those damn cigarettes

[tabascoboy]

Hungary's "hands-off" approach doesn't seem to have appeased their "friends"




and

Russia threatens retaliation against Armenia over move to ratify Rome Statute

The small Caucasian country, an ally of Moscow, has paved the way for ratifying the International Criminal Court's founding treaty. Armenia's move is directed against Azerbaijan and not against Vladimir Putin, who is the target of an ICC arrest warrant.


Vladimir Putin could soon become persona non grata in Armenia. While the country is allied with Russia, this prospect became a possibility after the Armenian Constitutional Court ruled on March 24 that the Rome Statute complied with the Constitution, paving the way for ratification of the founding treaty of the International Criminal Court (ICC). The decision came after the ICC issued an arrest warrant on March 17 for the Russian president, who is accused of war crimes in Ukraine. If parliament ratifies the treaty, Armenia would be obliged, in theory, to arrest Putin should he set foot on their soil and to extradite him to the Hague tribunal.

Russia was quick to respond, threatening its ally with "serious consequences," according to a Foreign Ministry source quoted on Monday by the official Russian agencies Tass and RIA Novosti. "Moscow considers Yerevan's plans to join the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court in the context of the ICC's recent illegal and legally invalid arrest warrants against the Russian leaders [Vladimir Putin and Children's Rights Commissioner Maria Lvova-Belova] to be absolutely unacceptable," the source added. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Moscow would be discussing the implications of the decision with Yerevan.

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international ... 123_4.html

[Hellraiser]

Turkey has ratified Finland's NATO membership application. That's all she wrote.

[fishfoodie]

Turkey has ratified Finland's NATO membership application. That's all she wrote.

I saw elsewhere that Turkey is now refusing to do any refueling, or maintenance on Boeing aircraft from Russian airlines, so the airlines are re-routing Airbus aircraft onto those routes, until the equivalent ban happens for them.

Commercial air traffic will either grind to a halt in Orcville, or there'll be a major uptick in crashes.

I wouldn't get on a Russian operated aircraft for a bet with the complete destruction of 80 years worth of accumulated knowledge on best operating practices.

[Hellraiser]

Turkey has ratified Finland's NATO membership application. That's all she wrote.

I saw elsewhere that Turkey is now refusing to do any refueling, or maintenance on Boeing aircraft from Russian airlines, so the airlines are re-routing Airbus aircraft onto those routes, until the equivalent ban happens for them.

Commercial air traffic will either grind to a halt in Orcville, or there'll be a major uptick in crashes.

I wouldn't get on a Russian operated aircraft for a bet with the complete destruction of 80 years worth of accumulated knowledge on best operating practices.

I flew Aeroflot from Shannon to Moscow back when they were falling out of the sky every second week.

[Hellraiser]

Additionally the German Navy Seebatallion (Marines) are to be integrated into the Royal Netherlands Marine Corps.

[Sandstorm]

You would have though they would have changed it from.Panzer to something a bit friendlier by now

The Steinmeier Youth?

[inactionman]

This is going to be fun - the presidency of the UN Security Council is passed round permanent members on a monthly basis, and April is Russia's turn.

God alone knows what nonsense they'll put on the agenda.

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... -mariupol/

[SaintK]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... -mariupol/

Great story!!
Without the paywall
https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F% ... riupol%2F

[Niegs]

[ASMO]

Meh, number 3 would get it.