What's going on in Ukraine?

[GogLais]

Yeah. What did you decide on?

But I work out it couldn’t tried I.

Stick it in ChatGPT like you do all your other posts

Ooooh bitchy!

[tabascoboy]

Judging by the shouting of "retaliation coming!" I'm going to guess they just needed an excuse for another big missile attack that they will claim to be a success since they really have nothing else to gloat over during the May 9th parade.

[Hellraiser]

I reckon the offensive is well underway lads....

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/fu ... 023-05-03/

A fuel depot was on fire early on Wednesday near a crucial bridge linking Russia's mainland with Crimea, a Russian official said, days after Moscow blamed Ukraine for an attack that set fire to an oil depot in Sevastopol.

Flames and black smoke billowed over what appeared to be large tanks emblazoned with red warnings of "Flammable" in videos posted on Russian social media, though Reuters could not independently verify either the fire reports or the videos.

"The fire has been classified as the highest rank of difficulty," Veniamin Kondratyev, the governor of the Krasnodar region lying across the Sea of Azov from Ukraine, said on the Telegram messaging app, adding that there were no casualties.

Kondratyev said the blaze broke out in the village of Volna. The hamlet is close to the Crimean bridge over the Kerch Strait, a major artery for Russian forces, as it links the mainland to the Crimean peninsula that was annexed in 2014 from Ukraine.

The incident came days after a drone strike set ablaze a Russian fuel storage facility in the Crimean port of Sevastopol on Saturday, in what Moscow called a Ukrainian attack.

Ukraine did not claim responsibility for the Sevastopol attack, in line with its standard practice during the conflict, which began in February 2022.

It's shaping operations targeting Russian logistics, it'll probably be at least another fortnight before the tanks start rolling.

[fishfoodie]

I reckon the offensive is well underway lads....

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/fu ... 023-05-03/

A fuel depot was on fire early on Wednesday near a crucial bridge linking Russia's mainland with Crimea, a Russian official said, days after Moscow blamed Ukraine for an attack that set fire to an oil depot in Sevastopol.

Flames and black smoke billowed over what appeared to be large tanks emblazoned with red warnings of "Flammable" in videos posted on Russian social media, though Reuters could not independently verify either the fire reports or the videos.

"The fire has been classified as the highest rank of difficulty," Veniamin Kondratyev, the governor of the Krasnodar region lying across the Sea of Azov from Ukraine, said on the Telegram messaging app, adding that there were no casualties.

Kondratyev said the blaze broke out in the village of Volna. The hamlet is close to the Crimean bridge over the Kerch Strait, a major artery for Russian forces, as it links the mainland to the Crimean peninsula that was annexed in 2014 from Ukraine.

The incident came days after a drone strike set ablaze a Russian fuel storage facility in the Crimean port of Sevastopol on Saturday, in what Moscow called a Ukrainian attack.

Ukraine did not claim responsibility for the Sevastopol attack, in line with its standard practice during the conflict, which began in February 2022.

It's shaping operations targeting Russian logistics, it'll probably be at least another fortnight before the tanks start rolling.

Yeah, they were already rationing fuel in Crimean once the rail line on the bridge was damaged. The Orcs are so totally dependent on rail, that it has its own armed force, who are charged with protecting it. I think I saw that these troops started getting called up for combat duty several months ago, so that made the job of saboteurs much easier.

If Ukraine can destroy some more of the POL facilities, they can (a) severely damage the ability of the Orcs to maneuver in any attack, {b) Maybe limit the ability of the Navy to surge whatever ships they have in Sevastopol, & (c) really put the willies up the civilian population, who may decide they'd rather leave now, while they have fuel for their cars, than wait & hope they have it when the time comes.

It'd be nice to see the Orcs have their own refugee crisis, & try to explain how things are going wonderfully.

[Guy Smiley]

I reckon the offensive is well underway lads....

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/fu ... 023-05-03/

Spoiler

Show

A fuel depot was on fire early on Wednesday near a crucial bridge linking Russia's mainland with Crimea, a Russian official said, days after Moscow blamed Ukraine for an attack that set fire to an oil depot in Sevastopol.

Flames and black smoke billowed over what appeared to be large tanks emblazoned with red warnings of "Flammable" in videos posted on Russian social media, though Reuters could not independently verify either the fire reports or the videos.

"The fire has been classified as the highest rank of difficulty," Veniamin Kondratyev, the governor of the Krasnodar region lying across the Sea of Azov from Ukraine, said on the Telegram messaging app, adding that there were no casualties.

Kondratyev said the blaze broke out in the village of Volna. The hamlet is close to the Crimean bridge over the Kerch Strait, a major artery for Russian forces, as it links the mainland to the Crimean peninsula that was annexed in 2014 from Ukraine.

The incident came days after a drone strike set ablaze a Russian fuel storage facility in the Crimean port of Sevastopol on Saturday, in what Moscow called a Ukrainian attack.

Ukraine did not claim responsibility for the Sevastopol attack, in line with its standard practice during the conflict, which began in February 2022.

It's shaping operations targeting Russian logistics, it'll probably be at least another fortnight before the tanks start rolling.

There's been a couple of weeks now, of isolated 'incidents' that point to preparatory work softening up various vulnerabilities. Ukraine's assistant defense minister said back then that the counter had started. I understand that the sight of tanks rolling signals the full on assault that many are relying on but I think it's fair to say the campaign is underway.

Bakhmut has been a sideshow, consuming Wagner personnel in the meantime. There's a little bit of rope a dope about that.

[Flockwitt]

I reckon the offensive is well underway lads....

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/fu ... 023-05-03/

Spoiler

Show

It's shaping operations targeting Russian logistics, it'll probably be at least another fortnight before the tanks start rolling.

There's been a couple of weeks now, of isolated 'incidents' that point to preparatory work softening up various vulnerabilities. Ukraine's assistant defense minister said back then that the counter had started. I understand that the sight of tanks rolling signals the full on assault that many are relying on but I think it's fair to say the campaign is underway.

Bakhmut has been a sideshow, consuming Wagner personnel in the meantime. There's a little bit of rope a dope about that.

I wouldn't put it quite like that. Once the fighting became purely urban with the Russians focusing their limited ammo supplies there the Ukrainians have paid a high price in casualties. And they're past the stage of this being gallant heroism, it's simply good guys going down constantly. It's done the job yes with Wagner and now the airborne units, the most effective troops Russia has, being sucked in to help pave the way for a successful offensive but it's not a side show.

[Guy Smiley]

Side show was lazy wording… I guess what I was driving at was the way it has sucked in resources while the main event is readied.

[TB63]

[ASMO]

Judging by the shouting of "retaliation coming!" I'm going to guess they just needed an excuse for another big missile attack that they will claim to be a success since they really have nothing else to gloat over during the May 9th parade.

Its no better than a bloody firework, it did not even take down the flagpole, completely rancid, no question it was a false flag.

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

[Biffer]

Definition of fuck around and find out

[Slick]

Judging by the shouting of "retaliation coming!" I'm going to guess they just needed an excuse for another big missile attack that they will claim to be a success since they really have nothing else to gloat over during the May 9th parade.

Its no better than a bloody firework, it did not even take down the flagpole, completely rancid, no question it was a false flag.

I just immediately thought Monty Python

[Hellraiser]

[tabascoboy]

[yermum]

Paper tiger/toothless bear

The much boasted about dagger has no edge.

That patriot crew did well must be the first week or two in the job.

[Uncle fester]

Wagner threatening to pull out of Bakhmut.

BBC News - Yevgeny Prigozhin: Wagner Group boss says he will pull troops out of Bakhmut
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65493008

[inactionman]

Wagner threatening to pull out of Bakhmut.

BBC News - Yevgeny Prigozhin: Wagner Group boss says he will pull troops out of Bakhmut
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65493008

I'm wondering what exactly the ambition of Prigozhin's endgame is - whether its Putin or the likes of Shoigu and Gerasimov who should be most concerned. Or maybe all of them.

[tabascoboy]

Wagner threatening to pull out of Bakhmut.

BBC News - Yevgeny Prigozhin: Wagner Group boss says he will pull troops out of Bakhmut
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65493008

Would be funny if a genuine threat and actually arried out - even funnier if UA can artillery shell the shit out of them as they go

[Uncle fester]

Wagner threatening to pull out of Bakhmut.

BBC News - Yevgeny Prigozhin: Wagner Group boss says he will pull troops out of Bakhmut
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65493008

Would be funny if a genuine threat and actually arried out - even funnier if UA can artillery shell the shit out of them as they go

Don't interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake.

Wonder could it be an attempt to entice Ukraine out of their defensive posture and try to pull them into a trap?

[Hellraiser]

The Danish defence minister stated 80 Leopard 1A5s will be delivered to Ukraine before June 1st.

[tabascoboy]

Wagner threatening to pull out of Bakhmut.

BBC News - Yevgeny Prigozhin: Wagner Group boss says he will pull troops out of Bakhmut
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65493008

Would be funny if a genuine threat and actually arried out - even funnier if UA can artillery shell the shit out of them as they go

Don't interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake.

Wonder could it be an attempt to entice Ukraine out of their defensive posture and try to pull them into a trap?

That's so unsubtle and predictable that it might well be exactly the aim

[Uncle fester]

It's exactly the kind of hamfisted prank they've been doing all along.

[tabascoboy]

Much depends on how deep the rift between Prigozhin and the RU MoD really is and how much is theatre. The were some suggestions that the Kremlin drone was a stunt by Wagner to embarrass the MoD, but I don't know - think it's best to maintain a good degree of scepticism about the whole thing. If it was that bad then surely Wagner would pack their bags for Sudan where pickings are probably much richer and easier to get their claws into ( as they have in Mali etc).

[tabascoboy]

[Hellraiser]

[Hellraiser]

[fishfoodie]

Wow, they got them there quick !

[Wyndham Upalot]

The UAF Arms/Logs support from aligned allies has increased very, very rapidly these past 4 weeks; sufficient to provide near on 80% re-supply to critical assets designated for an offensive, as most commentators have surmised. What they do with it, I'll defer to the likes of Fishy, Hells and OS ... just my two-penneth from a part-time-supplier perspective.

[Hellraiser]

The UAF Arms/Logs support from aligned allies has increased very, very rapidly these past 4 weeks; sufficient to provide near on 80% re-supply to critical assets designated for an offensive, as most commentators have surmised. What they do with it, I'll defer to the likes of Fishy, Hells and OS ... just my two-penneth from a part-time-supplier perspective.

Apparently they've received a shit ton of engineering, bridging, pontoon, and amphibious equipment that has was not announced or publicised; for example at least one of the Italian's combat engineer regiments depots has been basically entirely cleaned out. Plus a significant number of Ukrainian engineering units have also been spotted training with the British Army and the Heer at Minden the last few months. And what did the units of the Army of the Rhine based at Minden specialise in during the Cold War? Large river crossings....

[Wyndham Upalot]

Minden has been a first collect point. I'll leave it at that. It's weird that that the old BAOR seems to be reinstated, cz there's plenty of backfill there.

[Guy Smiley]

Apparently Russia deployed phosphorus bombs in Bakhmut. Pretty desperate sort of a move if true.

[Hellraiser]

I've seen independent Russian media state that, as of end of April, Russian casualties stood at a confirmable absolute minimum of 270k. Some 60k KIA and 210K WIA.

[Hellraiser]

Apparently Russia deployed phosphorus bombs in Bakhmut. Pretty desperate sort of a move if true.

[Hellraiser]

https://news.yahoo.com/we-will-keep-kil ... 56674.html

[Hellraiser]

Minden has been a first collect point. I'll leave it at that. It's weird that that the old BAOR seems to be reinstated, cz there's plenty of backfill there.

One thing I didn't until recently have a lightbulb moment about is the Syvash. People go on about the Perekop isthmus being the only entry route to the Crimean peninsula, but then you realise that the Syvash is only 0.5-1m deep on average, with the greatest depth being 3m. And it dries out massively in the Summer.... and the Red Army famously crossed the Syvash with 20k men in November 1920 in -12 C conditions to win the Siege of Perekop during the Russian Civil War....

[tabascoboy]

[tabascoboy]

[dkm57]

Minden has been a first collect point. I'll leave it at that. It's weird that that the old BAOR seems to be reinstated, cz there's plenty of backfill there.

One thing I didn't until recently have a lightbulb moment about is the Syvash. People go on about the Perekop isthmus being the only entry route to the Crimean peninsula, but then you realise that the Syvash is only 0.5-1m deep on average, with the greatest depth being 3m. And it dries out massively in the Summer.... and the Red Army famously crossed the Syvash with 20k men in November 1920 in -12 C conditions to win the Siege of Perekop during the Russian Civil War....

Got me curious enough to actually look stuff up and given the topography I would imagine amphibious kit is almost more important than armour. Artillery to interdict logistics/coms, Armour to punch through, amphibious to go round. Can the Ukranians significantly degrade Russian Air and Naval resources before the offensive(s).

[fishfoodie]

I've seen independent Russian media state that, as of end of April, Russian casualties stood at a confirmable absolute minimum of 270k. Some 60k KIA and 210K WIA.

So, for reference, this means the Orcs have a casualty rate 100x that they suffered in Afghanistan

It's shit for Ukraine, but this wars attrition is going to make every other Eastern European border safer, & will reduce the Russian bear to a mangy rat.