Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Posted: Wed May 03, 2023 2:16 pm
Ooooh bitchy!EnergiseR2 wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 1:57 pmStick it in ChatGPT like you do all your other posts
Ooooh bitchy!EnergiseR2 wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 1:57 pmStick it in ChatGPT like you do all your other posts
It's shaping operations targeting Russian logistics, it'll probably be at least another fortnight before the tanks start rolling.Guy Smiley wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 9:15 am I reckon the offensive is well underway lads....
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/fu ... 023-05-03/
A fuel depot was on fire early on Wednesday near a crucial bridge linking Russia's mainland with Crimea, a Russian official said, days after Moscow blamed Ukraine for an attack that set fire to an oil depot in Sevastopol.
Flames and black smoke billowed over what appeared to be large tanks emblazoned with red warnings of "Flammable" in videos posted on Russian social media, though Reuters could not independently verify either the fire reports or the videos.
"The fire has been classified as the highest rank of difficulty," Veniamin Kondratyev, the governor of the Krasnodar region lying across the Sea of Azov from Ukraine, said on the Telegram messaging app, adding that there were no casualties.
Kondratyev said the blaze broke out in the village of Volna. The hamlet is close to the Crimean bridge over the Kerch Strait, a major artery for Russian forces, as it links the mainland to the Crimean peninsula that was annexed in 2014 from Ukraine.
The incident came days after a drone strike set ablaze a Russian fuel storage facility in the Crimean port of Sevastopol on Saturday, in what Moscow called a Ukrainian attack.
Ukraine did not claim responsibility for the Sevastopol attack, in line with its standard practice during the conflict, which began in February 2022.
Yeah, they were already rationing fuel in Crimean once the rail line on the bridge was damaged. The Orcs are so totally dependent on rail, that it has its own armed force, who are charged with protecting it. I think I saw that these troops started getting called up for combat duty several months ago, so that made the job of saboteurs much easier.Hellraiser wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 7:02 pmIt's shaping operations targeting Russian logistics, it'll probably be at least another fortnight before the tanks start rolling.Guy Smiley wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 9:15 am I reckon the offensive is well underway lads....
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/fu ... 023-05-03/
A fuel depot was on fire early on Wednesday near a crucial bridge linking Russia's mainland with Crimea, a Russian official said, days after Moscow blamed Ukraine for an attack that set fire to an oil depot in Sevastopol.
Flames and black smoke billowed over what appeared to be large tanks emblazoned with red warnings of "Flammable" in videos posted on Russian social media, though Reuters could not independently verify either the fire reports or the videos.
"The fire has been classified as the highest rank of difficulty," Veniamin Kondratyev, the governor of the Krasnodar region lying across the Sea of Azov from Ukraine, said on the Telegram messaging app, adding that there were no casualties.
Kondratyev said the blaze broke out in the village of Volna. The hamlet is close to the Crimean bridge over the Kerch Strait, a major artery for Russian forces, as it links the mainland to the Crimean peninsula that was annexed in 2014 from Ukraine.
The incident came days after a drone strike set ablaze a Russian fuel storage facility in the Crimean port of Sevastopol on Saturday, in what Moscow called a Ukrainian attack.
Ukraine did not claim responsibility for the Sevastopol attack, in line with its standard practice during the conflict, which began in February 2022.
There's been a couple of weeks now, of isolated 'incidents' that point to preparatory work softening up various vulnerabilities. Ukraine's assistant defense minister said back then that the counter had started. I understand that the sight of tanks rolling signals the full on assault that many are relying on but I think it's fair to say the campaign is underway.Hellraiser wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 7:02 pmIt's shaping operations targeting Russian logistics, it'll probably be at least another fortnight before the tanks start rolling.Guy Smiley wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 9:15 am I reckon the offensive is well underway lads....
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/fu ... 023-05-03/
SpoilerShowA fuel depot was on fire early on Wednesday near a crucial bridge linking Russia's mainland with Crimea, a Russian official said, days after Moscow blamed Ukraine for an attack that set fire to an oil depot in Sevastopol.
Flames and black smoke billowed over what appeared to be large tanks emblazoned with red warnings of "Flammable" in videos posted on Russian social media, though Reuters could not independently verify either the fire reports or the videos.
"The fire has been classified as the highest rank of difficulty," Veniamin Kondratyev, the governor of the Krasnodar region lying across the Sea of Azov from Ukraine, said on the Telegram messaging app, adding that there were no casualties.
Kondratyev said the blaze broke out in the village of Volna. The hamlet is close to the Crimean bridge over the Kerch Strait, a major artery for Russian forces, as it links the mainland to the Crimean peninsula that was annexed in 2014 from Ukraine.
The incident came days after a drone strike set ablaze a Russian fuel storage facility in the Crimean port of Sevastopol on Saturday, in what Moscow called a Ukrainian attack.
Ukraine did not claim responsibility for the Sevastopol attack, in line with its standard practice during the conflict, which began in February 2022.
I wouldn't put it quite like that. Once the fighting became purely urban with the Russians focusing their limited ammo supplies there the Ukrainians have paid a high price in casualties. And they're past the stage of this being gallant heroism, it's simply good guys going down constantly. It's done the job yes with Wagner and now the airborne units, the most effective troops Russia has, being sucked in to help pave the way for a successful offensive but it's not a side show.Guy Smiley wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 9:35 pmThere's been a couple of weeks now, of isolated 'incidents' that point to preparatory work softening up various vulnerabilities. Ukraine's assistant defense minister said back then that the counter had started. I understand that the sight of tanks rolling signals the full on assault that many are relying on but I think it's fair to say the campaign is underway.Hellraiser wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 7:02 pmIt's shaping operations targeting Russian logistics, it'll probably be at least another fortnight before the tanks start rolling.Guy Smiley wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 9:15 am I reckon the offensive is well underway lads....
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/fu ... 023-05-03/
SpoilerShow
Bakhmut has been a sideshow, consuming Wagner personnel in the meantime. There's a little bit of rope a dope about that.
Its no better than a bloody firework, it did not even take down the flagpole, completely rancid, no question it was a false flag.tabascoboy wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 4:21 pm Judging by the shouting of "retaliation coming!" I'm going to guess they just needed an excuse for another big missile attack that they will claim to be a success since they really have nothing else to gloat over during the May 9th parade.
I just immediately thought Monty PythonASMO wrote: Thu May 04, 2023 1:08 pmIts no better than a bloody firework, it did not even take down the flagpole, completely rancid, no question it was a false flag.tabascoboy wrote: Wed May 03, 2023 4:21 pm Judging by the shouting of "retaliation coming!" I'm going to guess they just needed an excuse for another big missile attack that they will claim to be a success since they really have nothing else to gloat over during the May 9th parade.
I'm wondering what exactly the ambition of Prigozhin's endgame is - whether its Putin or the likes of Shoigu and Gerasimov who should be most concerned. Or maybe all of them.Uncle fester wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 1:06 pm Wagner threatening to pull out of Bakhmut.
BBC News - Yevgeny Prigozhin: Wagner Group boss says he will pull troops out of Bakhmut
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65493008
Would be funny if a genuine threat and actually arried out - even funnier if UA can artillery shell the shit out of them as they goUncle fester wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 1:06 pm Wagner threatening to pull out of Bakhmut.
BBC News - Yevgeny Prigozhin: Wagner Group boss says he will pull troops out of Bakhmut
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65493008
Don't interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake.tabascoboy wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 1:11 pmWould be funny if a genuine threat and actually arried out - even funnier if UA can artillery shell the shit out of them as they goUncle fester wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 1:06 pm Wagner threatening to pull out of Bakhmut.
BBC News - Yevgeny Prigozhin: Wagner Group boss says he will pull troops out of Bakhmut
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65493008
That's so unsubtle and predictable that it might well be exactly the aimUncle fester wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 1:22 pmDon't interrupt your enemy when he's making a mistake.tabascoboy wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 1:11 pmWould be funny if a genuine threat and actually arried out - even funnier if UA can artillery shell the shit out of them as they goUncle fester wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 1:06 pm Wagner threatening to pull out of Bakhmut.
BBC News - Yevgeny Prigozhin: Wagner Group boss says he will pull troops out of Bakhmut
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65493008
Wonder could it be an attempt to entice Ukraine out of their defensive posture and try to pull them into a trap?
Wow, they got them there quick !
Apparently they've received a shit ton of engineering, bridging, pontoon, and amphibious equipment that has was not announced or publicised; for example at least one of the Italian's combat engineer regiments depots has been basically entirely cleaned out. Plus a significant number of Ukrainian engineering units have also been spotted training with the British Army and the Heer at Minden the last few months. And what did the units of the Army of the Rhine based at Minden specialise in during the Cold War? Large river crossings....Wyndham Upalot wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 9:43 pm The UAF Arms/Logs support from aligned allies has increased very, very rapidly these past 4 weeks; sufficient to provide near on 80% re-supply to critical assets designated for an offensive, as most commentators have surmised. What they do with it, I'll defer to the likes of Fishy, Hells and OS ... just my two-penneth from a part-time-supplier perspective.
Guy Smiley wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 11:30 pm Apparently Russia deployed phosphorus bombs in Bakhmut. Pretty desperate sort of a move if true.
One thing I didn't until recently have a lightbulb moment about is the Syvash. People go on about the Perekop isthmus being the only entry route to the Crimean peninsula, but then you realise that the Syvash is only 0.5-1m deep on average, with the greatest depth being 3m. And it dries out massively in the Summer.... and the Red Army famously crossed the Syvash with 20k men in November 1920 in -12 C conditions to win the Siege of Perekop during the Russian Civil War....Wyndham Upalot wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 11:16 pm Minden has been a first collect point. I'll leave it at that. It's weird that that the old BAOR seems to be reinstated, cz there's plenty of backfill there.
Got me curious enough to actually look stuff up and given the topography I would imagine amphibious kit is almost more important than armour. Artillery to interdict logistics/coms, Armour to punch through, amphibious to go round. Can the Ukranians significantly degrade Russian Air and Naval resources before the offensive(s).Hellraiser wrote: Sat May 06, 2023 1:02 amOne thing I didn't until recently have a lightbulb moment about is the Syvash. People go on about the Perekop isthmus being the only entry route to the Crimean peninsula, but then you realise that the Syvash is only 0.5-1m deep on average, with the greatest depth being 3m. And it dries out massively in the Summer.... and the Red Army famously crossed the Syvash with 20k men in November 1920 in -12 C conditions to win the Siege of Perekop during the Russian Civil War....Wyndham Upalot wrote: Fri May 05, 2023 11:16 pm Minden has been a first collect point. I'll leave it at that. It's weird that that the old BAOR seems to be reinstated, cz there's plenty of backfill there.
So, for reference, this means the Orcs have a casualty rate 100x that they suffered in AfghanistanHellraiser wrote: Sat May 06, 2023 12:05 am I've seen independent Russian media state that, as of end of April, Russian casualties stood at a confirmable absolute minimum of 270k. Some 60k KIA and 210K WIA.