Wyndham Upalot wrote: ↑Fri May 05, 2023 11:16 pm
Minden has been a first collect point. I'll leave it at that. It's weird that that the old BAOR seems to be reinstated, cz there's plenty of backfill there.
One thing I didn't until recently have a lightbulb moment about is the Syvash. People go on about the Perekop isthmus being the only entry route to the Crimean peninsula, but then you realise that the Syvash is only 0.5-1m deep on average, with the greatest depth being 3m. And it dries out massively in the Summer.... and the Red Army famously crossed the Syvash with 20k men in November 1920 in -12 C conditions to win the Siege of Perekop during the Russian Civil War....
Wyndham Upalot wrote: ↑Fri May 05, 2023 11:16 pm
Minden has been a first collect point. I'll leave it at that. It's weird that that the old BAOR seems to be reinstated, cz there's plenty of backfill there.
One thing I didn't until recently have a lightbulb moment about is the Syvash. People go on about the Perekop isthmus being the only entry route to the Crimean peninsula, but then you realise that the Syvash is only 0.5-1m deep on average, with the greatest depth being 3m. And it dries out massively in the Summer.... and the Red Army famously crossed the Syvash with 20k men in November 1920 in -12 C conditions to win the Siege of Perekop during the Russian Civil War....
Got me curious enough to actually look stuff up and given the topography I would imagine amphibious kit is almost more important than armour. Artillery to interdict logistics/coms, Armour to punch through, amphibious to go round. Can the Ukranians significantly degrade Russian Air and Naval resources before the offensive(s).
Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Posted: Sat May 06, 2023 9:55 am
by fishfoodie
Hellraiser wrote: ↑Sat May 06, 2023 12:05 am
I've seen independent Russian media state that, as of end of April, Russian casualties stood at a confirmable absolute minimum of 270k. Some 60k KIA and 210K WIA.
So, for reference, this means the Orcs have a casualty rate 100x that they suffered in Afghanistan
It's shit for Ukraine, but this wars attrition is going to make every other Eastern European border safer, & will reduce the Russian bear to a mangy rat.
Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Posted: Sat May 06, 2023 10:27 am
by dkm57
Smoke plumes reported from Dzhankoi.
Airbase?
Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Posted: Sat May 06, 2023 10:37 am
by tabascoboy
More karma? UPDATE " The Crimean Tatar organization "Atesh" , associated with the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine, claimed responsibility for blowing up Zakhar Prilepin's car."
Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Posted: Sat May 06, 2023 10:38 am
by tabascoboy
dkm57 wrote: ↑Sat May 06, 2023 10:27 am
Smoke plumes reported from Dzhankoi.
Airbase?
or railway junction
Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Posted: Sat May 06, 2023 10:50 am
by Raggs
Could the bridge and ferries be shut down to prevent civilians from leaving? Making it a lot harder to operate without causing civilian injuries?
Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Posted: Sat May 06, 2023 1:46 pm
by Uncle fester
Raggs wrote: ↑Sat May 06, 2023 10:50 am
Could the bridge and ferries be shut down to prevent civilians from leaving? Making it a lot harder to operate without causing civilian injuries?
Would be something that Russians would do alright.
Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Posted: Sat May 06, 2023 3:21 pm
by Hellraiser
Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Posted: Sat May 06, 2023 3:23 pm
by tabascoboy
RU still really going after that Bakhmut by the 9th May directive
Raggs wrote: ↑Sat May 06, 2023 10:50 am
Could the bridge and ferries be shut down to prevent civilians from leaving? Making it a lot harder to operate without causing civilian injuries?
Would be something that Russians would do alright.
It's a bit risky. A large proportion of the "Defenders", of Crimea, are going to be ethnic Russians, who are part of the militias. They're going to want their families to be out of the firing zone, even of Moscow prefers to use them as human shields.
If they try to stop women & children leaving they could end up with an insurrection from their own side.
Raggs wrote: ↑Sat May 06, 2023 10:50 am
Could the bridge and ferries be shut down to prevent civilians from leaving? Making it a lot harder to operate without causing civilian injuries?
Would be something that Russians would do alright.
It's a bit risky. A large proportion of the "Defenders", of Crimea, are going to be ethnic Russians, who are part of the militias. They're going to want their families to be out of the firing zone, even of Moscow prefers to use them as human shields.
If they try to stop women & children leaving they could end up with an insurrection from their own side.
We do have the two groups here, the Russian nationals who moved in after 2014 thinking it was completely safe and secure for ever buying new homes or holiday residences and the reluctant Ukraine nationals who identify with Russia and wished for / participated in the annexation actively or passively.
Most of the former, who essentially took over stolen property as the spoils of war may well have left by now (and good riddance) after the first attacks on targets in Crimea. The latter are going to be a problem as some are "innocent bystanders" who nonetheless were happy to accept the new reality (as RU would see it), while others could cause resistance and insurrection against UA in the event of Ukraine reclaiming the are with boots on the ground. That will inevitably be very messy if RU does decide to shut down and sacrifice civilians for their defence.
It's going to be a tricky one for Ukraine to assess their actions if full on assault is needed - more so than in occupied Donbass where escape routes into Russia would be harder to seal off. Best case case scenario is a full RU forces withdrawal taking their flotsam and jetsam with them but that could be hard to achieve given that the Kremlin sees Crimean territorial ownership as a sine qua non.
Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Posted: Sat May 06, 2023 7:51 pm
by Hellraiser
Interesting. The Ukrainians are starting to change the dates on WWII monuments from 1941-1945, to 1939-1945.
What's with this guy's patch? (If I deduced those letters correctly, DLSU, it didn't convert in Google Translate, so a unit acronym perhaps?)
Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Posted: Sun May 07, 2023 10:54 am
by tabascoboy
Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Posted: Sun May 07, 2023 11:36 am
by tabascoboy
More Russian dick-waving
N.B. Machine Translation
Russian Su-35 tried to crash a Polish L410 60 km from Romania. The Romanian Air Force was ready to intervene
"The Romanian Ministry of Defence (MApN) announced that during the day of yesterday, 5 May, an L410 TURBOLET aircraft "from the Polish Polish Border Police, which was executing, in cooperation with the Border Police, routine patrol missions under the aegis of Frontex over the Black Sea, in international airspace, was intercepted around at approximately 60 km East of Romanian airspace, by a Russian Suhoi Su-35 fighter jet."
According to MApN, "the aggressive and dangerous manoeuvres repeatedly executed by the Russian Federation in the vicinity of the Polish aircraft resulted in a level high turbulence and major difficulties in its control". The incident is reminiscent of what happened in March, when an Su-27 intentionally challenged an American MQ-9 Reaper drone over the Black Sea.
Romania's Air Force has been pre-alerted, ready to intervene at any time
"Following the incident, two aircraft of the Romanian Air Force and two of the Air Force Air Police Combat Service were by the NATO Combined Air Operations Centre at Torrejon, being ready to intervene at any time, but not being necessary to take off," the MApN said in a statement issued by DefenseRomania.
The Polish crew acted calmly and professionalism in the situation irresponsibly created by the Russian pilot, managing to recover the aircraft after the initial loss of altitude caused by the manoeuvring of the Su-35 aircraft, managing to land in the safely at Mihail Kogalniceanu airport at around 13.50.
None of the crew on board the Polish aircraft was injured as a result of the incident. Romanian authorities are in contact with Frontex and the Polish authorities to clarify all circumstances of the incident. The aggressive conduct of the Russian Federation military aircraft against a unarmed aircraft carrying out a Frontex mission aimed at monitor the migration risk in the Black Sea basin is completely unacceptable. This incident is further evidence of the approach provocative approach of the Russian Federation in the Black Sea.
Polish L410 TURBOLET mission
From 19 April to 17 May 2023, a Polish L410 UVP-E20 aircraft is deployed in Romania as part of the Multipurpose Maritime Operation (MMO) Western Black Sea 2023", coordinated by the European Border Police Agency and Coast Guard - Frontex. MMO Western Black Sea 2023 is a joint operation hosted by Romania and coordinated by Frontex. operation also involves Poland, Spain and Sweden, as well as two European Union agencies: the European Maritime Safety Agency Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA) and the European Maritime Safety Agency (EMSA). Fisheries Control Agency (EFCA). The operation, planned to run until December this year, aims to prevent illegal migration, illegal fishing, marine pollution and combating other illegal activities. cross-border crime in the Black Sea region. Operation MMO Western Black Sea runs annually, starting from 2019."
In a logical world that’s a bad thing, don’t want them feeling twitchy and vulnerable.
Or any false alarms come to that as per 1983
Very true. I wonder if Biden and Putin ever have chats on the hot-line. Of course neither would trust the other. Cold War seems like happy days now, you knew where you were.
In a logical world that’s a bad thing, don’t want them feeling twitchy and vulnerable.
Or any false alarms come to that as per 1983
Yeah, that would be the bigger problem.
In 83 the satellite was reporting flashes in the American Mid-West, & interpreted these as launch signatures, & then the routine would be to go to a higher alert stage, & confirm using the MEWS.
If you can't confirm, or you don't have any confidence in the MEWS, there's that possibility of launching on flawed data.
The other thing is if this report is accurate, the Gazelle ABM system around Moscow is by now, not worth a tinkers curse. This was supposedly the only deployed ABM system on the planet, & controls dozens of hypersonic interceptor missiles with low yield nuclear warheads.
Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Posted: Mon May 08, 2023 6:53 pm
by Hellraiser
Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Posted: Tue May 09, 2023 6:49 am
by tabascoboy
Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Posted: Tue May 09, 2023 7:56 am
by Flockwitt
So currently on the face of the reporting it looks like the Ukrainian offensive will be a strike towards Melitopol with a significant number of forces attempting to enter into Kherson over the Dnipro to disrupt the supplies to the defenders on that Melitopol line. Let's see.
Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Posted: Tue May 09, 2023 9:23 am
by Hellraiser
So the May 9th parade in Moscow was utterly pathetic. Only a single tank, a T-34, and no air units. This was arguably worse optics than cancelling the whole thing.
Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Posted: Tue May 09, 2023 10:16 am
by Hellraiser
Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Posted: Tue May 09, 2023 11:31 am
by Hellraiser
Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Posted: Tue May 09, 2023 11:39 am
by Hellraiser
‘We need to be heard’: Ukrainian soldiers struggle with post-traumatic stress
Therapists are helping veterans, as well as families and children, who are psychologically affected by the war
Peter Beaumont in Borodianka
@petersbeaumont1
Tue 9 May 2023 07.00 BST
Volodomyr Kucherenko’s problems with post-traumatic stress began not with the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine, but eight years ago when the war began in the Donbas. In the midst of what was supposed to be a truce, he was resting with his unit, which included his brother-in-law, when they were mortared in the yard of a village house.
Injured in the leg during the first strike, his brother-in-law threw himself over Kucherenko to protect him from shrapnel as more rounds came in. The wounds he sustained protecting his comrade would prove fatal.
Kucherenko’s experience is far from unique. After more than a year of brutal and continuing combat, Ukraine’s wounded – both physically and psychologically – have become an inescapable fact in a horrific war fought often a close quarters under shell fire, and where the home front is also under fire from missile and drone attacks.
Kucherenko’s symptoms since have been complex. He says he still feels his dead friend speaks to him, sometimes offering advice, sometimes remonstrating with him for a promise he made about scattering his ashes.
There has been anger too, he says. Other feelings came when columns of Russian armour descended last year on the region – about an hour’s drive from the capital, Kyiv – where he lives in a village outside Borodianka.
Kucherenko took up arms in a volunteer defence unit and was sent to ambush Russian forces around Makariv as they pressed on with their unsuccessful effort to capture the capital. Injured again, he was demobilised.
Sitting in a workshop area of his horse farm, whose farmhouse was destroyed last year, Kucherenko is chatting to Iryna Nyzovets, a therapist from a nearby centre in Borodianka involved in the psychological rehabilitation of soldiers and civilians.
“Since that first incident, I feel my brother-in-law is still talking to me,” he says. “When I need advice, I sometimes talk to him. It feels like it helps. The other thing is that I don’t dream. Or at least I can’t remember dreaming.”
Kucherenko says that being with his horses helps him, as do his sessions at the centre. But he says he felt like a “fish in water” when he returned to soldiering last year, and his demobilisation after his second injury has made him feel anxious and worthless.
He says it is a problem felt by many soldiers. “We fought because it was our duty. But now we don’t know what’s expected of us. Part of it is feeling that we need to be heard.”
He continues: “It’s worst when I’m in the house on my own. I feel anxious and guilty because the army didn’t want me any more. But when I feel nervous now I go to the centre in the Borodianka and talk to them. And I always feel better.”
While it is too soon to know the scale of the issue in Ukraine, the National Center for PTSD at the US Veterans’ Affairs Department has estimated that at “some point in their life, seven out of every 100 veterans will have PTSD”, compared with six in 100 of the general population.
However, levels of experience of PTSD are also known to vary by conflict, with figures suggesting that up to 29% of Iraq veterans have experienced it at some point in their life, compared with 10% who served in Vietnam.
At the centre in Borodianka, housed in the offices of the town’s football stadium after its own offices were destroyed, the centre’s head, Lyudmila Boiko, and her deputy, Tatiana Soshko, describe working with soldiers – some of whom go back to the front – families and children, all psychologically affected by the war.
“Some of the soldiers feel lost and very sensitive to information about people dying. They have flashbacks or dream constantly about what they have experienced,” says Boiko. “Others have difficulty sleeping or use alcohol as self-medication. Usually they have some treatment then go back to their unit.”
“Another problem,” adds Soshko, “is when people are trying to be sympathetic, saying that they understand. They don’t want to hear it.”
They tell the story of one veteran, a businessman who had returned to his family after escaping from a burning tank. At night in bed, his wife would see him fighting in his dreams. The man denied he was having violent dreams, until his wife videoed him sleeping. Shocked and frightened that he might hurt their son, he took to sleeping in his car.
“We worked with soldiers before 24 February last year [when the full-scale Russian invasion began.] But it is much worse now,” Boiko says. “We are seeing civilians who were caught up in the fighting and lost everything. At the moment we are seeing 1,500 people every month.
Soshko says: “For children whose homes have been burned, it’s very hard. They want to know what’s happened to the things they had, their toys or cats and dogs. They’ll say: ‘My dad is at the front and he didn’t call us yesterday.’ It’s very hard, and it is hard to say how long the impact will be.
“Then there is the trauma for wives and mothers whose men are on the frontline, sometimes in circumstances where they will have lost their jobs.”
Conscious of the scale of the task they will be faced with when the war is eventually over, the therapists in Borodianka are planning new strategies for treatment, including a nature-based centre for patients to visit.
On his farm, Kucherenko has his own ideas. “A lot of people are going to need help when the war is over and we’ve won,” he says. “The soldiers coming back will need help from people who really understand what they’ve been through. It needs to be integrated in the military.”
Re: What's going on in Ukraine?
Posted: Tue May 09, 2023 12:19 pm
by tabascoboy
Work of the Russian Opposition Resistance?
And here we go again...unless they were only given enough ammo to ensure no bad news for May 9th Parade Day